Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “range prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Multipolar Fermi Surface Deformations in Sr 2 ⁢RuO 4 Probed by Resistivity and Sound Attenuation: A Window into Electron Viscosity and the Collision Operator

Recent developments in electron hydrodynamics have demonstrated the importance of considering the full structure of the electron-electron scattering operator, which encodes a sequence of lifetimes, one for each component of the Fermi surface deformation in a multipolar expansion. In this context, the dipolar lifetime is measured by resistivity, whereas the quadrupolar component probes the viscosity and can be measured in the bulk via sound attenuation. We introduce a framework to extract the collision operator of an arbitrary metal by combining resistivity and sound attenuation measurements with a realistic calculation of the scattering operator that includes multiband and umklapp effects. The collision operator allows for the prediction of a plethora of properties, including the nonlocal conductivity, and can be used to predict hydrodynamic behavior for bulk metals. As a first application, we apply this framework to Sr 2 ⁢RuO 4 in a temperature range where electron-electron scattering is dominant. Furthermore, we find quantitative agreement between our model and the temperature dependence of both the resistivity and the sound attenuation, we find the quadrupolar (𝐵 1⁢𝑔 ) relaxation rate to be 30% higher than the dipolar one due to the presence of hot spots on the 𝛾 band, and we predict a strongly anisotropic viscosity arising from the 𝛼 and 𝛽 bands.

Boltzmann theory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Broadband Characterization and Circuit Model Development of Transmission-Scale Transformers

This report describes broadband measurements of transmission-scale transformers typical in the electric power grid. This work was performed as part of the EMP Resilient Grid LDRD project at Sandia National Laboratories to generate circuit models that can be used for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) coupling simulations and response predictions. The objective of the work was to obtain characterization data of substation yard equipment across a frequency range relevant to HEMP. Vector network analyzer measurements up to 100 MHz were performed on two power transformers at ABB-Hitachi and a single ITEC potential transformer. Custom cable breakouts were designed to interface with the transformer terminals and provide ground connections to the chassis at the base of the transformer bushings. The three-phase terminals of the power transformers were measured as a common mode impedance using a parallel resistive splitter, and the single-phase terminals of the potential transformer were measured directly. A vector fitting algorithm was used to empirically fit circuit models to the resulting two-port networks and input impedances of the measured objects. Simplified circuit representations of the input impedances were also generated to assess the degree of precision needed for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse response predictions, which were performed in Sandia's XYCE circuit simulator platform. HEMP coupling simulations using the transformer models showed significant reduction in the voltage peak and broadening in the pulse width seen at the power transformer compared to the traveling wave voltage. This indicated the importance of the load condition when defining the coupled insult in an electric power substation. Simplified circuit models showed a similar voltage at the transformer with a smoothed waveform. The presence of potential transformers in the simulation did not significantly change the simulated voltage at the power transformer. Single-port input impedance models were also developed to define load conditions when transfer characteristics were not necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization and Prediction of Spectral Response of Metasurfaces Using Artificial Intelligence

Hot-electron generation has been a topic of intense research for decades for numerous applications ranging from photodetection and photochemistry to biosensing. Recently, the technique of hot-electron generation using non-radiative decay of surface plasmons excited by metallic nanoantennas, or meta-atoms, in a metasurface has attracted attention. These metasurfaces can be designed with thicknesses on the order of the hot-electron diffusion length. The plasmonic resonances of these ultrathin metasurfaces can be tailored by changing the shape and size of the meta-atoms. One of the fundamental mechanisms leading to generation of hot-electrons in such systems is optical absorption, therefore, optimization of absorption is a key step in enhancing the performance of any metasurface based hot-electron device. Here we utilized an artificial intelligence-based approach, the genetic algorithm, to optimize absorption spectra of plasmonic metasurfaces. Using genetic algorithm optimization strategies, we designed a polarization insensitive plasmonic metasurface with 90% absorption at 1550 nm that does not require an optically thick ground plane. We fabricated and optically characterized the metasurface and our experimental results agree with simulations. Finally, we present a convolutional neural network that can predict the absorption spectra of metasurfaces never seen by the network, thereby eliminating the need for computationally expensive simulations. Our results suggest a new direction for optimizing hot-electron based photodetectors and sensors.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coleman-Weinberg dynamics of ultralight scalar dark matter and GeV-scale right-handed neutrinos

We consider an extension of the Standard Model by three singlet fermions and one singlet real scalar field. The scalar is an ultralight dark matter candidate whose abundance is set by dynamically induced misalignment from the Higgs portal. We focus on parameter space where the Coleman-Weinberg potential both fixes the dark matter relic abundance, and predicts the mass scale of right-handed neutrinos. The model prefers scalar masses in the range of 10 μeV ≲ m Φ ≲ 10 meV, and can be tested via direct searches for a light scalar (e.g. fifth force tests), or by searching for right-handed neutrinos in laboratory experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Relevance of Pion-Exchange Contributions Versus Contact Terms in the Chiral Effective Field Theory Description of Nucleon–Nucleon Scattering

The standard way to demonstrate the relevance of chiral symmetry for the NN interaction is to consider higher partial waves of NN scattering which are controlled entirely by chiral pion-exchanges (since contacts vanish). However, in applications of NN-potentials to nuclear structure and reactions, the lower partial waves are the important ones, making the largest contributions. Lower partial waves are sensitive to the short-range potential, and so, when the short-range contacts were to dominate over the chiral pion contributions in lower partial waves, then the predictions from chiral potentials would have little to do with chiral symmetry. To address this issue, we investigate systematically the role of the (chiral) one- and two-pion exchanges, on the one hand, and the effect of the contacts, on the other hand, in the lower partial waves of NN scattering. We are able to clearly identify the signature of chiral symmetry in lower partial waves. Furthermore, our study has also a pedagogical spinoff as it demonstrates in detail how the reproduction of the lower partial-wave phase shifts comes about from the various ingredients of the theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature effects on adsorption and capillarity water retention mechanisms in constrained unsaturated soils

Abstract This paper focuses on the impact of elevated temperatures on the adsorptive and capillarity water retention mechanisms of unsaturated soils under constrained (constant volume) conditions. This topic is critical for simulating the thermo-hydraulic behavior of soils in hydrogeological or geotechnical applications, including climate change effects on near surface soils, energy piles or soil borehole thermal energy storage systems in unsaturated soil layers, and buffers for geological nuclear waste repositories. A nonisothermal soil water retention curve (SWRC) that separately considers the temperature-dependency of the key parameters governing adsorptive and capillarity water retention mechanisms and soil physical parameters (e.g., surface tension, contact angle, adsorption capacity, cation exchange capacity, mean cavitation suction, air entry value and equilibrium film thickness) was developed to provide insights into the impact of temperature on water retention over the full suction range. The nonisothermal SWRC was validated using experimental data on high plasticity clays, with a good prediction of temperature effects on adsorption and capillarity water retention mechanisms in constrained unsaturated soils.

Lu, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic simulations and machine learning of solute grain boundary segregation in Mg alloys at finite temperatures

Understanding solute segregation thermodynamics is the first step in investigating grain boundary (GB) properties, such as strong yttrium (Y) effects on grain growth and texture evolution in micro-scale polycrystalline magnesium (Mg) alloys. To estimate the average GB segregation behavior in low-solute-concentration Mg alloys (e.g., 2 at.% Y), a state-of-the-art spectral approach is applied based on a per-site segregation energy spectrum for Y solute atoms at zero K obtained from molecular statistics (MS) simulations of ~10 4 GB sites in Mg symmetric tilt GBs (STGBs). Although selected MS simulation results are consistent with verification by density functional theory (DFT) calculations, estimates of average segregation tendency based on the zero-K energy spectrum deviate from experimental observations. To resolve this problem, thermodynamic integration (TI) methods based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine the per-site segregation free energies of Y at representative GB sites, which show contributions beyond harmonic approximations can be important for certain GB sites at high temperatures. A surrogate model of per-site segregation free energy is constructed from a small set of TI data points using stacking cross-validation regressors and physics-informed descriptors. This model is applied to predict the Y segregation free energy spectra for thousands of GB sites in Mg STGBs with uncertainty quantification. Finally, the average segregation tendency predicted by the spectral approach based on the free energy spectra agrees well (within the uncertainty range) with experimental observations for micro-scale polycrystalline Mg alloys at typical thermomechanical processing temperatures (500 ~ 800 K), where thermodynamic equilibrium states are likely to be achieved due to fast diffusion.

Atomistic simulations↗
DOE OSTI2022

Blending and cavern formation within non-Newtonian fluids in stirred tanks: Application to nuclear waste fluid processing

A numerical approach for predicting the time-accurate fluid flow and mixing properties of non-Newtonian fluids is presented. This approach, which is based on the lattice Boltzmann method, is used to characterize the blending in shear-thinning fluids, as well as cavern formation in yield-stress fluids. Predictions compare favorably to measured data and expectations from first-principles theory. Importantly, across the range of fluids and systems here, the simulations require no reparameterization or retuning between scenarios. This generality is exploited to model a nuclear waste processing unit operation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anomalous near-equilibrium capillary imbibition induced by nanoscale surface topography

Here, this work reports that the nanoscale surface topography induces a crossover from the classical Lucas–Washburn imbibition dynamics to a long-lived anomalously slow regime observed near thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. A compact analytical model considering the interplay between interfacial wetting, thermal motion, and the nanoscale physical topography accounts for experimental observations for the case of capillary rise of different nonvolatile liquids in simple glass tubes. Analytical predictions supported by topographic analysis via atomic force microscopy indicate that topographic features with a specific range of nanoscale dimensions determine the crossover condition and anomalous imbibition rate. Our findings have important implications for the scientific understanding and technical application of capillary imbibition and suggest strategies to control the adsorption of specific liquids in porous materials with complex surface topography.

Capillary driven imbibition↗
DOE OSTI2020

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A coarse-grained model of clay colloidal aggregation and consolidation with explicit representation of the electrical double layer

The aggregation of clay minerals in liquid water exemplifies colloidal self-assembly in nature. These negatively charged aluminosilicate platelets interact through multiple mechanisms with different sensitivities to particle shape, surface charge, aqueous chemistry, and interparticle distance and exhibit complex aggregation structures. Experiments have difficulty resolving the associated colloidal assemblages at the scale of individual particles. Conversely, all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide detailed insight on clay colloidal interaction mechanisms, but they are limited to systems containing a few particles. We develop a new coarse-grained (CG) model capable of representing assemblages of hundreds of clay particles with accuracy approaching that of MD simulations, at a fraction of the computational cost. Our CG model is parameterized based on MD simulations of a pair of smectite clay particles in liquid water. A distinctive feature of our model is that it explicitly represents the electrical double layer (EDL), i.e., the cloud of charge-compensating cations that surrounds the clay particles. Our model captures the simultaneous importance of long-range colloidal interactions (i.e., interactions consistent with simplified analytical models, already included in extant clay CG models) and short-range interactions such as ion correlation and surface and ion hydration effects. The resulting simulations correctly predict, at low solid-water ratios, the existence of ordered arrangements of parallel particles separated by water films with a thickness up to ~10 nm and, at high solid-water ratios, the coexistence of crystalline and osmotic swelling states, in agreement with experimental observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of surface forces in environment-enhanced cracking of brittle solids

Fracture initiation and propagation in brittle materials is promoted in surface-reactive (sorptive) environments, a phenomenon known as subcritical crack growth (SCG). Laboratory measured crack-propagation velocity vs. stress intensity factor relationships typically exhibit highly nonlinear, multi-stage characteristics that are sensitive to environmental factors such as adsorbate concentration and temperature. For practical purposes, empirical relationships (e.g., a power law) have been used to describe this complex phenomenon. However, how the overall SCG behavior emerges from the underlying fundamental processes near the crack tip, such as the interaction of the crack surfaces separated by only a few nanometers and mass transport within the nano-confined space, is still not well understood. This paper develops a mechanistic, surface-force-based fracture theory (SFFT) which integrates surface force models, fluid transport models, and linear elastic fracture mechanics to quantitatively explain the multi-stage characteristics of SCG in brittle solids. A numerical model is developed based on SFFT and solved through an implicit partitioned scheme for efficiency and modularity. The results are validated by Wiederhorn's data on crack propagation in soda-lime glasses at a wide range of relative humidity levels. We show that, for the first time, the entire range of an SCG curve can be captured by a single physics-based model. The predicted SCG curves reveal that the development of repulsive disjoining pressure behind the crack tip can be responsible for the reduced apparent fracture toughness in a sorptive environment. In conclusion, the shape of the SCG curve, and its changes with respect to the environment, is found to critically depend on the assumed transport models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two-particle azimuthal correlations in γp interactions using pPb collisions at s NN = 8.16 TeV

The first measurements of the Fourier coefficients ( V n Δ ) of the azimuthal distributions of charged hadrons emitted from photon-proton (γp) interactions are presented. The data are extracted from 68.8 nb −1 of ultra-peripheral proton-lead (pPb) collisions at s NN = 8.16 TeV using the CMS detector. The high energy lead ions produce a flux of photons that can interact with the oncoming proton. This γp system provides a set of unique initial conditions with multiplicity lower than in photon-lead collisions but comparable to recent electron-positron and electron-proton data. The V n Δ coefficients are presented in ranges of event multiplicity and transverse momentum ( p T ) and are compared to corresponding hadronic minimum bias pPb results. For a given multiplicity range, the mean p T of charged particles is smaller in γp than in pPb collisions. For both the γp and pPb samples, V 1 Δ is negative, V 2 Δ is positive, and V 3 Δ consistent with 0. For each multiplicity and p T range, V 2 Δ is larger for γp events. The γp data are consistent with model predictions that have no collective effects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the polarizations of prompt and non-prompt J/ψ and ψ ( 2S ) mesons produced in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV

The polarizations of prompt and non-prompt Image 2 and ψ ( 2S ) mesons are measured in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV, using data samples collected by the CMS experiment in 2017 and 2018, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 103.3 fb − 1 . Based on the analysis of the dimuon decay angular distributions in the helicity frame, the polar anisotropy, λ ϑ , is measured as a function of the transverse momentum, p T , of the charmonium states, in the 25–120 and 20–100 GeV ranges for the Image 2 and ψ ( 2S ) , respectively. The non-prompt polarizations agree with predictions based on the hypothesis that, for p T ≳ 25 GeV , the non-prompt Image 2 and ψ ( 2S ) are predominantly produced in two-body B meson decays. The prompt results clearly exclude strong transverse polarizations, even for p T exceeding 30 times the Image 2 mass, where λ ϑ tends to an asymptotic value around 0.3. Taken together with previous measurements, by CMS and LHCb at s = 7 TeV, the prompt polarizations show a significant variation with p T , at low p T .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Barriers to Crystallization of Calcium Barium Carbonates

Metastable carbonates play important roles in geochemistry, biomineralization and serve as model systems for nonclassical theories of nucleation and growth. Balcite (Ca 0.5 Ba 0.5 CO 3 ) is a remarkable carbonate phase that is isostructural with a high-temperature modification of calcite (CaCO 3 ), yet can be synthesized at ambient conditions. Here, we investigate crystallization pathways in the Ba-Ca-CO 3 -H 2 O system, with a focus on the transformation of amorphous calcium barium carbonate (ACBC) to balcite and subsequent decomposition into the equilibrium calcite (CaCO3) and witherite (BaCO 3 ) phases. Density functional theory calculations show that balcite is an unstable solid solution (Ca 1-x BaxCO 3 , R 3¯ m) in the range 0.17 < x < 0.5, but is accessible through the amorphous ACBC precursor for x ≲ 0.5, and predict its decomposition into calcite and witherite. We confirm this pathway experimentally but found demixing to proceed slowly and remain incomplete even after 9 months. Nucleation kinetics of balcite from ACBC was assessed using a microfluidic assay, where increasing barium content led to a surprising increase in the balcite nucleation rate, despite decreasing thermodynamic driving force. We attribute crystallization rates that dramatically accelerate with time to changes in interfacial structure and composition during coarsening of the amorphous precipitate. By carefully quantifying the thermodynamic and kinetic contributions in the multistep crystallization of a metastable carbonate, we produce insights that allow us to better interpret the formation and persistence of metastable minerals in natural and synthetic environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗