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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗

Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Attitude Estimation in Fractionated Spacecraft Systems

This paper addresses the problem of attitude estimation in fractionated spacecraft clusters. Each module in the cluster may have either a star-tracker, a relative attitude sensor, or both. Using results in nonlinear ob- servability theory, we provide graph-theoretic sufficient conditions for the attitude of every module to be observable. In particular we show that the attitude of every module in the cluster can be observed if every module has either a star tracker with non-collinear stars, or there is a path through the sensing network from a module with a star tracker to the module without a star tracker, and each of the relative measurements along the path has either multiple non-collinear beacons or a single beacon that is not parallel to the rotation vector of the target module.

Blackmore, Lars↗

Phase dynamics in an AC-driven multiterminal Josephson junction analog

In the presence of an AC drive, multiterminal Josephson junctions exhibit the inverse AC Josephson effect, where the oscillations of the superconducting phase of each junction can lock onto one another or onto the external drive. The competition between these different phase-locked states results in a complex array of quantized voltage plateaus whose stability strongly depend on the circuit parameters of the shunted junctions. This phase diagram cannot be explored with low-temperature transport experiments alone, given the breadth of the parameter space, so we present an easily tunable analog circuit whose dynamical properties emulate those of a three-terminal junction. We focus on the observation of the multiterminal inverse AC Josephson effect, and we discuss how to identify Shapiro steps associated with each of the three junctions as well as their quartet states. We only observe integer phase-locked states in strongly overdamped networks, but fractional Shapiro steps appear as well when the quality factor of the junctions increases. Finally, we discuss the role of transverse coupling in the synchronization of the junctions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Capability of Impedance Measurement Using Spread Spectrum Time-Domain Reflectometry

Spread spectrum time-domain reflectometry (SSTDR) has been proposed for measuring electrical impedance on live, energized systems, in electrically noisy environments, or for measuring multiple channels simultaneously. Here we evaluate the capability of SSTDR for impedance measurement from near dc to 96 MHz and find that they agree very well with measurements from a vector network analyzer (VNA). Time gating is used to remove (calibrate out) transmission line effects. We evaluate the frequency ranges over which SSTDR at different modulation frequencies is accurate for the measurement of series resistive–capacitive ( RC ) loads and observe that fusing measurements from multiple modulation frequencies can broaden the effective measurement bandwidth.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Real-Time Monitoring of Fracture Dynamics with a Contrast Agent-Assisted Electromagnetic Method

In collaboration with the Advanced Energy Consortium, our team has previously demonstrated that the placement of electrically active proppants (EAPs) in a hydraulic fracture surveyed by electromagnetic (EM) methods can enhance the imaging of the stimulated reservoir volumes during hydraulic fracturing. That work culminated in constructing a well-characterized EAP-filled fracture anomaly at the Devine field pilot site (DFPS). In subsequent laboratory studies, we observed that the electrical conductivity of our EAP correlates with changes in pressure, salinity, and flow. Thus, we postulated that the EAP could be used as an in-situ sensor for the remote monitoring of these changes in previously EAP-filled fractures. This paper presents our latest field data from the DFPS to demonstrate such correlations at an intermediate pilot scale. We conducted surface-based EM surveys during freshwater (200 ppm) and saltwater (2,500 ppm) slug injections while running surfaced-based EM surveys. Simultaneously, we measured the following: 1) bottomhole pressure and salinity in five monitoring wells; 2) injection rate using high-precision data loggers; 3) distributed acoustic sensors in four monitoring wells; and 4) tiltmeter data on the survey area. We demonstrated that injections into an EAP-filled fracture could be successfully coupled with real-time electric field measurements on the surface, leading to remote monitoring of dynamic changes within the EAP-filled fracture. Furthermore, by comparing the electrical field traces with the bottomhole pressure, flow rate, and salinity, we concluded that the observed electric field in our study is influenced by fracture dilation and flow rate. Salinity effect was observed when saltwater was injected. EM simulations solely based on assumptions of fracture conductivity changes during injection did not reproduce all of the measured electric field magnitudes. Preliminary estimates showed that including streaming potential in our geophysical model may be needed to reduce the simulation mismatch. The methods developed and demonstrated during this study will lead to a better understanding of the extent of fracture networks, formation stress states, fluid leakoff and invasion, characterizations of engineered fracture systems, and other applications where monitoring subsurface flow tracking is deemed important.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Creating a NASA-Wide Museum Alliance

NASA's Museum Alliance is a nationwide network of informal educators at museums, science centers, and planetariums that present NASA information to their local audiences. Begun in 2002 as the Mars Museum Visualization Alliance with advisors from a dozen museums, the network has grown to over 300 people from 200 organizations, including a dozen or so international partners. The network has become a community of practice among these informal educators who work with students, educators, and the general public on a daily basis, presenting information and fielding questions about space exploration. Communications are primarily through an active listserve, regular telecons, and a pass word protected website. Professional development is delivered via telecons and downloadable presentations. Current content offerings include Mars exploration, Cassini, Stardust, Genesis, Deep Impact, Earth observations, STEREO, and missions to explore beyond our solar system.

planetary sciences↗

Dense Feature Tracking of Atmospheric Winds with Deep Optical Flow

Atmospheric winds are a key physical phenomenon impacting natural hazards, energy transport, ocean currents, large-scale circulation, and ecosystem fluxes. Observing winds is a complex process and presents a large gap in NASA’s Earth Observation System. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) aim to fill this gap by making numerical estimates of cloud movement between sequences of multi-spectral satellite images, tracking clouds and water vapor. Recent imaging hardware and software advancements have enabled the use of numerical optical flow techniques to produce accurate and dense vector fields outperforming traditional methods. This work presents WindFlow as the first machine learning based system for feature tracking atmospheric motion using optical flow. Due to the lack of large-scale satellite-based observations, we leverage high-resolution numerical simulations from NASA's GEOS-5 Nature Run to perform supervised learning and transfer to satellite images. We demonstrate that our approach using deep learning based optical flow scales to ultra-high-resolution images of size 2881x5760 with less than 1 m/s bias and 2.5 m/s average error. Four network and learning architectures are compared and it is found that recurrent all-pairs field transforms (RAFT) produces the lowest errors on all metrics for wind speed and direction. Results on held out numerical outputs shows RAFT's good performance in each of the spatial, temporal, and physical dimensions. A comparison between WindFlow and an operational AMV product against rawinsonde observations show that RAFT transfers across simulations and thermal infrared satellite observations. This work shows that machine learning based optical flow is an efficient approach to generating robust feature tracking for AMVs consistently over large regions.

Atmospheric winds↗

WORKSHOP ON URBAN SCALE PROCESSES AND THEIR REPRESENTATION IN HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

It is essential that numerical models used to study physics, chemistry, and biology affecting the Earth system at regional and global scales represent the effects of urban areas on climate and the effects of changing the climate on urban areas. At the same time, it is essential to develop state of the art, simple and accurate urban models to better understand the relevant processes and also toaddress issues related to urban security against the spectra of chemical, biological and radiological (CBR) hazards. Towards bringing these communities together, a 2.5-day international workshop was held at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the Chicago area on May 22-24, 2019. This workshop brought together national and international experts to develop a roadmap for a better understanding of the issues associated with urban areas and at enhancing the capabilities of regional and global Earth System models (ESMs) in representing the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, unique aspects of the biosphere and land use, and human dimensions of the urban environment. This workshop was especially important to those developing very high-resolution versions of regional and global models. The workshop also discussed existing datasets, including in situ and satellite observations, and the emerging smart city sensing technologies and their possible use in model development (e.g., the NSF-funded Array of Things network currently operating in Chicago and expanding to other cities).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Visioning a Global Carbon Monitoring System That Can Quantify and Attribute Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal: Where Are We Now and How Might We Get There?

As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the resulting social costs rise, it is increasingly important to conduct research on technical approaches to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at the gigaton scale. One highly uncertain but perhaps plausible solution is ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which encompasses a suite of proposed techniques for increasing the net flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean. As reflected in a 2022 National Academy of Sciences report, interest in ocean CDR is rapidly growing, and new stakeholders from a wide range of fields want access to air-sea CO2 flux and ocean carbon information to understand the potential risks and benefits of ocean CDR. Moreover, there is an urgent need for research to develop a scientific basis to support these societal needs. At the same time, there is a growing need to vision a global carbon monitoring system that can quantify natural and anthropogenic perturbations in the air-sea CO2 flux to quantify and attribute the impacts of ocean CDR efforts on the ocean carbon sink. Here, we propose to present nascent efforts at the Ames Research Center to leverage NASA's unique remote sensing and computational capabilities and expertise in basic and applied Earth science to meet the needs of the ocean CDR stakeholder community as represented by the OceanVisions network. Specifically we aim to develop a global ocean CDR scenario explorer with two objectives: 1) to make quantitative estimates of the air-sea CO2 flux and its uncertainty more accessible to a wide range of users, and 2) to enable these diverse users to interactively explore the uncertain impacts on air-sea CO2 fluxes in a wide range of ocean CDR scenarios. The information would be provided to users via a public graphical user interface, and the results would be based on a new synthesis of scientific observations and knowledge in a global ocean mixed layer inverse model run on supercomputers. The proposed tool aims to fill a unique and valuable niche for users and the scientific community by balancing tradeoffs between user interests, scientific knowledge, and technical capabilities. We will conclude by visioning the potential implications for a global carbon monitoring system in a world with gigaton scale ocean CDR.

Global↗

Building molecular model series from heterogeneous CryoEM structures using Gaussian mixture models and deep neural networks

Cryogenic electron microscopy (CryoEM) produces structures of macromolecules at near-atomic resolution. However, building molecular models with good stereochemical geometry from those structures can be challenging and time-consuming, especially when many structures are obtained from datasets with conformational heterogeneity. Here we present a model refinement protocol that automatically generates series of molecular models from CryoEM datasets, which describe the dynamics of the macromolecular system and have near-perfect geometry scores. This method makes it easier to interpret the movement of the protein complex from heterogeneity analysis and to compare the structural dynamics observed from CryoEM data with results from other experimental and simulation techniques.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global Assimilation of Loon Stratospheric Balloon Observations and Their Trajectories Relative to Tropical Waves

Project Loon has an overall goal of providing worldwide internet coverage using a network of long-duration super-pressure balloons. Beginning in 2013, Loon has launched over 1600 balloons from multiple tropical and middle latitude locations. These GPS tracked balloon trajectories provide lower stratospheric wind information over the oceans and remote land areas where traditional radiosonde soundings are sparse, thus providing unique coverage of lower stratospheric winds. To fully investigate these Loon winds we: 1) compare the Loon winds to winds produced by a global data assimilation system (DAS: NASA GEOS) and 2) assimilate the Loon winds into the same comprehensive DAS. During May through December 2016 Loon balloons were often able to remain near the equator by selectively adjusting the Loon altitude. Our results based on global wind analyses show that the expected mean poleward motion from the Brewer-Dobson circulation can be circumvented by vertically adjusting the Loon altitudes with the phasing with the meridional wind of equatorial Rossby waves, allowing the Loon balloons to remain in the tropics.

Coy, L.↗

Sub-city Scale Hourly Air Quality Forecasting by Combining Models, Satellite Observations, and Ground Measurements

While multiple information sources exist concerning surface-level air pollution, no individual source simultaneously provides large-scale spatial coverage, fine spatial and temporal resolution, and high accuracy. It is, therefore, necessary to integrate multiple data sources, using the strengths of each source to compensate for the weaknesses of others. In this study, we propose a method incorporating outputs of NASA’s GEOS Composition Forecasting model system with satellite information from the TROPOMI instrument and ground measurement data on surface concentrations. Although we use ground monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency network in the continental United States, the model and satellite data sources used have the potential to allow for global application. This method is demonstrated using surface measurements of nitrogen dioxide as a test case in regions surrounding five major US cities. The proposed method is assessed through cross-validation against withheld ground monitoring sites. In these assessments, the proposed method demonstrates major improvements over two baseline approaches which use ground-based measurements only. Results also indicate the potential for near-term updating of forecasts based on recent ground measurements.

C. Malings↗

Porosity-Permeability Evolution During Simultaneous Mineral Dissolution and Precipitation

Permeability in reactive porous media evolves in complex ways that are hard to predict. Macroscopic empirical equations are often used to estimate permeability evolution but fail to reflect the impact of pore scale reactions on permeability. This work aims to understand the evolution of permeability in systems where mineral dissolution and precipitation occur simultaneously. Pore network models are used for permeability simulation of a Paluxy sandstone using pore and pore-throat size distributions from the analysis of X-ray CT images. Pore and pore-throat radii are increased and decreased to reflect the effects of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Varying spatial distributions of reactions are simulated and the resulting porosity and permeability values compared with commonly used macroscopic equations. It is observed that when dissolution occurs at the inlet and precipitation at the outlet, porosity increases while permeability decreases. Similar results are also observed in the respective opposite scenario where precipitation occurs at the inlet and dissolution at the outlet. When dissolution and precipitation reactions are randomly distributed throughout the network, porosity increases with little change in permeability that is not captured by the empirical equations. When reactions are controlled by pore and pore-throat sizes, such as dissolution occurring in pores and pore-throats of small size and precipitation in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability decrease. When precipitation occurs in pores and pore-throats of smaller size and dissolution in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability increase and is described relatively well by the Verma-Pruess porosity-permeability equation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Certifying almost all quantum states with few single-qubit measurements

Certifying that an n -qubit state synthesized in the laboratory is close to a given target state is a fundamental task in quantum information science. However, existing rigorous protocols applicable to general target states have potentially prohibitive resource requirements in the form of either deep quantum circuits or exponentially many single-qubit measurements. Here we prove that almost all n -qubit target states, including those with exponential circuit complexity, can be certified from only O ( n 2 ) single-qubit measurements. Given access to the target state’s amplitudes, our protocol requires only O ( n 3 ) classical computation. This result is established by a technique that relates certification to the mixing time of a random walk. Our protocol has applications for benchmarking quantum systems, for optimizing quantum circuits to generate a desired target state and for learning and verifying neural networks, tensor networks and various other representations of quantum states using only single-qubit measurements. We show that such verified representations can be used to efficiently predict highly non-local properties of a synthesized state that would otherwise require an exponential number of measurements on the state. We demonstrate these applications in numerical experiments with up to 120 qubits and observe an advantage over existing methods such as cross-entropy benchmarking.

information theory and computation↗

Leadership Development Experience

I spent this last summer working as a student researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. Under the mentorship of Joseph Smidt, a staff scientist and deputy group leader at the lab, I helped develop a chemistry network that will eventually be used to test how important chemicals like water and methane formed in the early universe. While such work is relatively obscure to the general public, it could be potentially very important in the scientific community, particularly if predictions from our simulations agree with astronomical observations. Such work would help to validate our cosmological models in addition to teaching us much about how the building blocks of life were seeded in our own solar system.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Tornadogenesis via squall line and supercell interaction revisited - The 15 November 1989 Huntsville tornado

A case study analyzing the environmental setting and storm system morphology that provides observational evidence of a mechanism involving the interaction of a gust front with a preexisting mesocyclone is presented. This case serves to reemphasize the existence of a high conditional probability of tornado occurrence, given the merger of a gust front (or storm outflow) with a moderate to strong thunderstorm ahead of it. The resultant data serve to illustrate some important unresolved issues relevant to the severe weather warning system that involve the present and planned local warning and network radars, and future algorithms that might intelligently integrate other data sources and models with the radar data.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

An Aerosol Extinction-to-Backscatter Ratio Database Derived from the NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network: Applications for Space-based Lidar Observations

Backscatter lidar signals are a function of both backscatter and extinction. Hence, these lidar observations alone cannot separate the two quantities. The aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratio, S, is the key parameter required to accurately retrieve extinction and optical depth from backscatter lidar observations of aerosol layers. S is commonly defined as 4*pi divided by the product of the single scatter albedo and the phase function at 180-degree scattering angle. Values of S for different aerosol types are not well known, and are even more difficult to determine when aerosols become mixed. Here we present a new lidar-sunphotometer S database derived from Observations of the NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET). MPLNET is a growing worldwide network of eye-safe backscatter lidars co-located with sunphotometers in the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Values of S for different aerosol species and geographic regions will be presented. A framework for constructing an S look-up table will be shown. Look-up tables of S are needed to calculate aerosol extinction and optical depth from space-based lidar observations in the absence of co-located AOD data. Applications for using the new S look-up table to reprocess aerosol products from NASA's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) will be discussed.

Welton, Ellsworth J.↗

Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) Overview

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) launched on June 18, 2009 from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station aboard an Atlas V launch vehicle and into a direct insertion trajectory to the oon. LRO, which was designed, built, and operated by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD, is gathering crucial data on the lunar environment that will help astronauts prepare for long-duration lunar expeditions. The mission has a nominal life of 1 year as its seven instruments find safe landing sites, locate potential resources, characterize the radiation environment, and test new technology. To date, LRO has been operating well within the bounds of its requirements and has been collecting excellent science data images taken from the LRO Camera Narrow Angle Camera of the Apollo landing sites appeared on cable news networks. A significant amount of information on LRO s science instruments is provided at the LRO mission webpage. LRO s Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) subsystem is made up of an onboard attitude control system (ACS) and a hardware suite of sensors and actuators. The LRO onboard ACS is a collection of algorithms based on high level and derived requirements, and reflect the science and operational events throughout the mission lifetime. The primary control mode is the Observing mode, which maintains the lunar pointing orientation and any offset pointing from this baseline. It is within this mode that all science instrument calibrations, slews and science data is collected. Because of a high accuracy requirement for knowledge and pointing, the Observing mode makes use of star tracker (ST) measurement data to determine an instantaneous attitude pointing. But even the star trackers alone do not meet the tight requirements, so a six-state Kalman Filter is employed to improve the noisy measurement data. The Observing mode obtains its rate information from an inertial reference unit (IRU) and in the event of an IRU failure, the rate data is be derived from the star tracker, but with degraded pointing performance. The Delta-V control mode responsibility is to maintain attitude pointing during the cruise trajectory, insertion burns and lunar orbit maintenance by adjustments made to the spacecraft s velocity magnitude and vector direction. The ACS also provides for a thruster based system momentum management algorithm (known as Delta-H) to maintain the system and wheel momentum to within acceptable levels. In the event an anomaly causes the LRO spacecraft to lose the ability to maintain its current attitude pointing, a Sun Safe mode is included in the ACS for the purpose of providing a known power and thermally safe coarse inertial sun attitude for an indefinite period of time, within the manageable limits of the reaction wheels. The Sun Safe mode is also the initial spacecraft control mode off of the launch vehicle and provides for a means to null tip-off rates immediately after separation. The nominal configuration is to use the IRU for rate information in the controller. In the event of a gyro failure a gyroless control mode was developed that computes rate information from the CSS data.

Garrick, Joseph↗