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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

High Spatial Melt Rate Variability Near the Totten Glacier Grounding Zone Explained by New Bathymetry Inversion

Totten Glacier is a fast-moving East Antarctic outlet with the potential for significant future sea-level contributions. We deployed four autonomous phase-sensitive radars on its ice shelf to monitor ice-ocean interactions near its grounding zone and made active source seismic observations to constrain gravity-derived bathymetry models. We observe an asymmetry in basal melting with mean melt rates along the grounding zone differing by up to 20 m/a. Our new bathymetry model reveals that this melt rate asymmetry coincides with an asymmetry in water column thickness and that the low-melting ice-shelf portion is shielded from the main cavity circulation. A 2-year record yields year-to-year melt rate variability of 7–9 m/a with no seasonal cycle. Our results highlight the key role of bathymetry near grounding lines for accurate modeling of ice-shelf melt, and the importance of sustained multi-year monitoring, especially at ice-shelf cavities where the dominant melt rate drivers vary primarily inter-annually.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Frequency Analysis of Simulated versus Observed Variability in Tropospheric Temperature

Studies seeking to identify a human-caused global warming signal generally rely on climate model estimates of the “noise” of intrinsic natural variability. Assessing the reliability of these noise estimates is of critical importance. We evaluate here the statistical significance of differences between climate model and observational natural variability spectra for global-mean mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT). We use TMT information from satellites and large multimodel ensembles of forced and unforced simulations. Our main goal is to explore the sensitivity of model-versus-data spectral comparisons to a wide range of subjective decisions. These include the choice of satellite and climate model TMT datasets, the method for separating signal and noise, the frequency range considered, and the statistical model used to represent observed natural variability. Of particular interest is the amplitude of the interdecadal noise against which an anthropogenic tropospheric warming signal must be detected. We find that on time scales of 5–20 years, observed TMT variability is (on average) overestimated by the last two generations of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This result is relatively insensitive to different plausible analyst choices, enhancing confidence in previous claims of detectable anthropogenic warming of the troposphere and indicating that these claims may be conservative. A further key finding is that two commonly used statistical models of short-term and long-term memory have deficiencies in their ability to capture the complex shape of observed TMT spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Global Aerosol Microphysical ModelE2-TOMAS Model Against Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model has been integrated into the state-of-the- art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various observations including aerosol precursor gas concentrations, aerosol mass and number concentrations, and aerosol optical depths. Additionally, global budgets in ModelE2-TOMAS are compared with those of other global aerosol models, and the ModelE2-TOMAS model is compared to the default aerosol model in ModelE2, which is a one-moment aerosol (OMA) model (i.e. no aerosol microphysics). Overall, the ModelE2- TOMAS predictions are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement (mostly within a factor of 2) with observations of sulfur species and other aerosol components as well as aerosol optical depth. However, ModelE2-TOMAS (as well as ModelE2-OMA) cannot capture the observed vertical distribution of sulfur dioxide over the Pacific Ocean, possibly due to overly strong convective transport and over-predicted precipitation. The ModelE2-TOMAS model simulates observed aerosol number concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations roughly within a factor of 2. Anthropogenic aerosol burdens in ModelE2-OMA differ from ModelE2-TOMAS by a few percent to a factor of 2 regionally, mainly due to differences in aerosol processes including deposition, cloud processing, and emission parameterizations. We observed larger differences for naturally emitted aerosols such as sea salt and mineral dust, as those emission rates are quite different due to different upper size cutoff assumptions.

Lee, Y. H.↗

Hawaii Ocean Mixing Experiment: Program Summary

It is becoming apparent that insufficient mixing occurs in the pelagic ocean to maintain the large scale thermohaline circulation. Observed mixing rates fall a factor of ten short of classical indices such as Munk's "Abyssal Recipe." The growing suspicion is that most of the mixing in the sea occurs near topography. Exciting recent observations by Polzin et al., among others, fuel this speculation. If topographic mixing is indeed important, it must be acknowledged that its geographic distribution, both laterally and vertically, is presently unknown. The vertical distribution of mixing plays a critical role in the Stommel Arons model of the ocean interior circulation. In recent numerical studies, Samelson demonstrates the extreme sensitivity of flow in the abyssal ocean to the spatial distribution of mixing. We propose to study the topographic mixing problem through an integrated program of modeling and observation. We focus on tidally forced mixing as the global energetics of this process have received (and are receiving) considerable study. Also, the well defined frequency of the forcing and the unique geometry of tidal scattering serve to focus the experiment design. The Hawaiian Ridge is selected as a study site. Strong interaction between the barotropic tide and the Ridge is known to take place. The goals of the Hawaiian Ocean Mixing Experiment (HOME) are to quantify the rate of tidal energy loss to mixing at the Ridge and to identify the mechanisms by which energy is lost and mixing generated. We are challenged to develop a sufficiently comprehensive picture that results can be generalized from Hawaii to the global ocean. To achieve these goals, investigators from five institutions have designed HOME, a program of historic data analysis, modeling and field observation. The Analysis and Modeling efforts support the design of the field experiments. As the program progresses, a global model of the barotropic (depth independent) tide, and two models of the baroclinic (depth varying) tide, all validated with near-Ridge data, will be applied, to reveal the mechanisms of tidal energy conversion along the Ridge, and allow spatial and temporal integration of the rate of conversion. Field experiments include a survey to identify "hot spots" of enhanced mixing and barotropic to baroclinic conversion, a Nearfield study identifying the dominant mechanisms responsible for topographic mixing, and a Farfield program which quantifies the barotropic energy flux convergence at the Ridge and the flux divergence associated with low mode baroclinic waves radiation. The difference is a measure of the tidal power available for mixing at the Ridge. Field work is planned from years 2000 through 2002, with analysis and modeling efforts extending through early 2006. If successful, HOME will yield an understanding of the dominant topographic mixing processes applicable throughout the global ocean. It will advance understanding of two central problems in ocean science, the maintenance of the abyssal stratification, and the dissipation of the tides. HOME data will be used to improve the parameterization of dissipation in models which presently assimilate TOPEX-POSEIDON observations. The improved understanding of the dynamics and spatial distribution of mixing processes will benefit future long-term programs such as CLIVAR.

Ray, Richard D.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils during CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entrainment using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H2Ov), and total water (H2Ot) aboard NASA's WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the free troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

CO Signatures in Subtropical Convective Clouds and Anvils During CRYSTAL-FACE: An Analysis of Convective Transport and Entertainment Using Observations and a Cloud-Resolving Model

Convective systems are an important mechanism in the transport of boundary layer air into the upper troposphere. The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) campaign, in July 2002, was developed as a comprehensive atmospheric mission to improve knowledge of subtropical cirrus systems and their roles in regional and global climate. In situ measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), water vapor (H20v), and total water (H20t) aboard NASA's . WB-57F aircraft and CO aboard the U.S. Navy's Twin Otter aircraft were obtained to study the role of convective transport. Three flights sampled convective outflow on 11, 16 and 29 July found varying degrees of CO enhancement relative to the fiee troposphere. A cloud-resolving model used the in situ observations and meteorological fields to study these three systems. Several methods of filtering the observations were devised here using ice water content, relative humidity with respect to ice, and particle number concentration as a means to statistically sample the model results to represent the flight tracks. A weighted histogram based on ice water content observations was then used to sample the simulations for the three flights. In addition, because the observations occurred in the convective outflow cirrus and not in the storm cores, the model was used to estimate the maximum CO within the convective systems. In general, anvil-level air parcels contained an estimated 20-40% boundary layer air in the analyzed storms.

Lopez, Jimena P.↗

Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest

Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Current State of Modeling the Photochemistry of Titan's Mutually Dependent Atmosphere and Ionosphere

In the context of recent observations, microphysical models, and laboratory data, a photochemical model of Titan's atmosphere, including updated chemistry focusing on rate coefficients and cross sections measured under appropriate conditions, has been developed to increase understanding of these processes and improve upon previous Titan photochemical models. The model employs a two-stream discrete ordinates method to characterize the transfer of solar radiation, and the effects of electron-impact, cosmic-ray deposition, and aerosol opacities from fractal and Mie particles are analyzed. Sensitivity studies demonstrate that an eddy diffusion profile with a homopause level of 850 km and a methane stratospheric mole fraction of 2.2% provides the best fit of stratospheric and upper atmosphere observations and an improved fit over previous Titan photochemical models. Lack of fits for C3H8, HC3N, and possibly C2H3CN can be resolved with adjustments in aerosol opacity. The model presents a benzene profile consistent with its detection in Titan's stratosphere [Coustenis et al., 2003], which may play an important role in the formation of Titan hazes. An electron peak concentration of 4200 cm(exp -3) is calculated, which exceeds observations by 20%, considerably lower than previous ionosphere models. With adjustments in aerosol opacities and surface fluxes the model illustrates that reasonable fits to existing observations are possible with a single eddy diffusion profile, contrary to the conclusions of previous Titan models. These results will aid in the receipt and interpretation of data from Cassini-Huygens, which will arrive at Titan in 2004 and deploy a probe into Titan's atmosphere in January 2005.

ion chemistry↗

A Melting Layer Model for Passive/Active Microwave Remote Sensing Applications: Model Formulation and Comparison with Observations - Part 1

In this study, a 1-D steady-state microphysical model which describes the vertical distribution of melting precipitation particles is developed. The model is driven by the ice-phase precipitation distributions just above the freezing level at applicable gridpoints of "parent" 3-D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations. It extends these simulations by providing the number density and meltwater fraction of each particle in finely separated size categories through the melting layer. The depth of the modeled melting layer is primarily determined by the initial material density of the ice-phase precipitation. The radiative properties of melting precipitation at microwave frequencies are calculated based upon different methods for describing the dielectric properties of mixed phase particles. Particle absorption and scattering efficiencies at the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager frequencies (10.65 to 85.5 GHz) are enhanced greatly for relatively small (approx. 0.1) meltwater fractions. The relatively large number of partially-melted particles just below the freezing level in stratiform regions leads to significant microwave absorption, well-exceeding the absorption by rain at the base of the melting layer. Calculated precipitation backscatter efficiencies at the Precipitation Radar frequency (13.8 GHz) increase in proportion to the particle meltwater fraction, leading to a "bright-band" of enhanced radar reflectivities in agreement with previous studies. The radiative properties of the melting layer are determined by the choice of dielectric models and the initial water contents and material densities of the "seeding" ice-phase precipitation particles. Simulated melting layer profiles based upon snow described by the Fabry-Szyrmer core-shell dielectric model and graupel described by the Maxwell-Garnett water matrix dielectric model lead to reasonable agreement with radar-derived melting layer optical depth distributions. Moreover, control profiles that do not contain mixed-phase precipitation particles yield optical depths that are systematically lower than those observed. Therefore, the use of the melting layer model to extend 3-D CRM simulations appears justified, at least until more realistic spectral methods for describing melting precipitation in high-resolution, 3-D CRM's are implemented.

Olson, William S.↗

A model for coronal streamer observations using the SOHO coronagraph instrumentation

The SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) coronagraphs will offer an unprecedented opportunity to observe coronal streamer material and determine its outward motion. The inner C1 and C2 coronagraphs should enable ready identification of coronal streamers and their surface manifestations. The outer C3 coronagraph should be able to trace streamers to nearly interplanetary distances from the Sun. Using a modeling program designed to determine parameters from co-rotating heliospheric material viewed by the Helios spacecraft, the locations in position angle and distance from the Sun of several modeled streamers are shown. These models demonstrate the expected differences in streamer location when different assumptions are used for the outward acceleration of the streamer material.

Jackson, Bernard V.↗

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model’s Simulated Clouds Using Observations from CloudSat, GOES-13 and in Situ Aircraft

This study aimed to assess tropical cloud properties predicted by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM)modelwhen run with the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment cloud microphysical scheme and one-way nesting that culminated at a (∼300 km)2 inner domain with 0.25 km horizontal grid spacing. The assessment utilized satellite and in situ data collected during the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) and High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) projects for a mesoscale convective system on 16May 2015 over French Guiana.Data fromCloud- Sat’s cloud-profiling radar and GOES-13’s imager were compared to data either simulated directly by GEM or produced by operating on GEM’s cloud data with both the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) instrument simulator and a three-dimensional Monte Carlo solar radiative transfer model. In situ observations were made from research aircraft – Canada’s National Research Council Convair-580 and the French SAFIRE Falcon-20 – whose flight paths were aligned with CloudSat’s ground-track. Spatial and temporal shifts of clouds simulated by GEM compared well to GOES-13 imagery. There are, however, differences between simulated and observed amounts of high and low cloud. While GEM did well at predicting ranges of ice-water content (IWC) near 11 km altitude (Falcon-20), it produces too much graupel and snow near 7 km (Convair-580). This produced large differences between CloudSat’s and COSP-generated radar reflectivities and two-way attenuations. On the other hand, CloudSat’s inferred values of IWC agree well with in situ samples at both altitudes. Generally, GEM’s visible reflectances exceeded GOES-13’s on account of having produced too much low-level liquid cloud. It is expected that GEM’s disproportioning of cloud hydrometeors will improve once it includes a better representation of secondary ice production.

Qu, Zhipeng↗

A reduced-dynamic technique for precise orbit determination

Observations of the Global Positioning System (GPS) will enable a reduced-dynamic technique for achieving subdecimeter orbit determination of earth-orbiting satellites. With this technique, information on the transition between satellite states at different observing times is furnished by both a formal dynamic model and observed satellite positional change (which is inferred kinematically from continuous GPS carrier-phase data). The relative weighting of dynamic and kinematic information can be freely varied. Covariance studies show that in situations where observing geometry is poor and the dynamic model is good, the model dominates determination of the state transition; where the dynamic model is poor and the geometry strong, carrier phase governs the determination of the transition. When neither kinematic nor dynamic information is clearly superior, the reduced-dynamic combination of the two can substantially improve the orbit-determination solution. Guidelines are given here for selecting a near-optimal weighting for the reduced-dynamic solution, and sensitivity of solution accuracy to this weighting is examined.

Wu, S. C.↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Represented in High Resolution E3SMv2 and Impact of New Cloud and Convection Parameterizations

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global hydrological cycle, general circulation, and radiative energy budget. In this study, we evaluate MCS simulations in the second version of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). E3SMv2 atmosphere model (EAMv2) is run at the uniform 0.25? horizontal resolution. We track MCSs consistently in the model and observations using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm, which defines MCS based on both cloud-top brightness temperature (Tb) and surface precipitation. Results from using Tb only to define MCS, commonly used in previous studies, are also discussed. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impact of new cloud and convection parameterizations developed for EAMv3 on simulated MCSs. Our results show that EAMv2 simulated MCS precipitation is largely underestimated in the tropics and contiguous United States. This is mainly attributed to the underestimated precipitation intensity in EAMv2. In contrast, the simulated MCS frequency becomes more comparable to observations if MCSs are defined only based on cloud-top Tb. The Tb-based MCS tracking method, however, includes many cloud systems with very weak precipitation which conflicts with the MCS definition. This result illustrates the importance of accounting for precipitation in evaluating simulated MCSs. We also find that the new physics parameterizations help increase the relative contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation in the tropics, but the simulated MCS properties are generally not improved. This suggests that simulating MCSs will remain a challenge for the next version of E3SM.

Zhang, Meng↗

Past and future ocean warming

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 ZJ (1 ZJ = 10 21 J) from 1958 to 2019. The rate of warming increased from <5 to ~10 ZJ yr –1 from the 1960s to the 2010s. Observed area-averaged warming is largest in the Atlantic Ocean and southern oceans at 1.42 ± 0.09 and 1.40 ± 0.09 × 109 J m –2 , respectively, for the upper 2,000 m over 1958–2019. These observed patterns of heat gains are dominated by heat redistribution. Observationally constrained projections suggest that historic ocean warming is irreversible this century, with net warming dependent on the emission scenario. By 2100, projected warming in the top 2,000 m is 2–6 times that observed so far, ranging from 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for a low-emission scenario to 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for a high-emission scenario. The Pacific is projected to be the largest heat reservoir owing to its size, but area-averaged warming remains strongest in the Atlantic and southern oceans. Ocean warming has extensive impacts that pose risks to marine ecosystems and society. Here, the projected changes necessitate a continuation and improvement of observations and models, along with better uncertainty estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The global geochemistry of bomb-produced tritium - General circulation model compared to available observations and traditional interpretations

Observational evidence suggests that of the tritium produced during nuclear bomb tests that has already reached the ocean, more than twice as much arrived through vapor impact as through precipitation. In the present study, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 8 x 10 deg atmospheric general circulation model is used to simulate tritium transport from the upper atmosphere to the ocean. The simulation indicates that tritium delivery to the ocean via vapor impact is about equal to that via precipitation. The model result is relatively insensitive to several imposed changes in tritium source location, in model parameterizations, and in model resolution. Possible reasons for the discrepancy are explored.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Proteomic and metabolomic profiling of acute and chronic stress events associated with military exercises

By characterizing physiological changes that occur in warfighters during simulated combat, we can start to unravel the key biomolecular components that are linked to physical and cognitive performance. Viable field-based sensors for the warfighter must be rapid and noninvasive. In an effort to facilitate this, we applied a multiomics pipeline to characterize the stress response in the saliva of warfighters to correlate biomolecular changes with overall performance and health. In this study, two different stress models were observed – one of chronic stress and one of acute stress. In both models, significant perturbations in the immune, metabolic, and protein manufacturing/processing systems were observed. However, when differentiating between stress models, specific metabolites associated with the “fight or flight” response and protein folding were seen to be discriminate of the acute stress model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Whole Heliosphere Interval: Campaign Summaries and Early Results

The Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) is an internationally coordinated observing and modeling effort to characterize the 3-dimensional interconnected solar-heliospheric-planetary system - a.k.a. the "heliophysical" system. The heart of the WHI campaign is the study of the interconnected 3-D heliophysical domain, from the interior of the Sun, to the Earth, outer planets, and into interstellar space. WHI observing campaigns began with the 3-0 solar structure from solar Carrington Rotation 2068, which ran from March 20 - April 16, 2008. Observations and models of the outer heliosphere and planetary impacts extended beyond those dates as necessary; for example, the solar wind transit time to outer planets can take months. WHI occurs during solar minimum, which optimizes our ability to characterize the 3-D heliosphere and trace the structure to the outer limits of the heliosphere. A summary of some of the key results from the WHI first workshop in August 2008 will be given.

Thompson, Barbara J.↗

Orion Flight Test 1 Architecture: Observed Benefits of a Model Based Engineering Approach

This paper details how a NASA-led team is using a model-based systems engineering approach to capture, analyze and communicate the end-to-end information system architecture supporting the first unmanned orbital flight of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Exploration Vehicle. Along with a brief overview of the approach and its products, the paper focuses on the observed program-level benefits, challenges, and lessons learned; all of which may be applied to improve system engineering tasks for characteristically similarly challenges

Multi-Purpose Crew Exploration Vehicle.↗