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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna and Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

Son, Rackhun (ORCID:000000023366495X)↗

Assessing the viability of a new subsize tensile specimen geometry for evaluation of structural nuclear and additively manufactured materials

The use of subsize specimens in nuclear materials testing has been a subject of ongoing interest due to radiation safety concerns and resource conservation needs. It is also of interest in additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D-printing, as subsize specimens can more accurately represent the behavior of the small, intricate geometries often produced using AM. A novel, extremely small geometry, called the Subsize Teeny (SST) was recently developed and is of interest for implementation. Given its extraordinarily small size and the complexities associated with subsize specimen testing, adequate vetting of this geometry is necessary to ensure data quality. Here, a variety of unirradiated nuclear structural materials were tested in the SST geometry and compared against the well-established SSJ3 geometry. In addition, two case studies implementing the SST as a screening geometry for AM materials were also conducted. The question of SST viability was found to be highly nuanced and will often be dependent on the context or application in question. It was determined, however, that the SST is a largely invalid geometry for exceptionally coarse-grained materials or in cases where the physical defect volume equals or exceeds 0.1 % or where the specimen machining parameters result in significant surface alterations. On the other hand, it was determined that the SST may be employed with confidence if the test material is nearly or totally free of physical defects, isotropic, demonstrates homogeneous plastic deformation, and possesses a fine-grained, nearly or totally homogeneous microstructure with at least twelve slip systems.

Additive manufacturing↗

Additive Manufacturing Flaw Assessment Methodology

An evolution fatigue data and flaw tolerance of components produced using the Powder Bed Fusion (PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) process is documented in this report. Initial differences in fatigue data for AM components compared to smooth bar fatigue data indicated a need for a more detailed analysis of AM data available in technical literature. The investigation was initiated to support the development of a fatigue analysis methodology for AM components to support the of codification of AM technology for pressure equipment. The project was initiated to collect and analyze stainless steel 304L and 316L AM fatigue test data and corresponding process and quality information to develop S-N and E-N based fatigue data representation. Additional AM fatigue test data including Inconel Ti-6-4 and aluminum alloys were also considered for comparison purposes Metallic AM parts tend to contain various forms of defects distributed throughout the part. If an AM part is subjected to fatigue loading in service, a fatigue analysis needs to be performed during the design process to ensure an acceptable service life for the part. Post-process machining and polishing do not to improve fatigue resistance in any significant degree. The low cycle fatigue regime is of particular interest to this project in support of flaw acceptance criteria currently under development by ASME’s BPTCS/BNCS. Internal defects become exposed as external surface defects during machining for the machining of the AM part to final dimensions. This implies that as long as inherent AM defects are within a controlled limit in terms of both size and distribution characteristics, the corresponding fatigue test data in terms of either S-N (stress life) or E-N (strain life) can be investigated and characterized to establish fatigue properties of AM parts for design and fatigue evaluation purposes. The resulting S-N or E-N curves and their scatter bands can be used to derive fatigue design allowable stress values by capturing the effects of distributed discontinuities within an acceptable limit.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Dynamic Co-Evolution of Space Policy and Technology: Historical Overview and Lessons for Assessing Future Trends [Slides]

The course goal is to provide participants with better understanding of the dynamic evolution between space policy, technology and world events in order to (1) anticipate the potential impacts of evolving space security policy on technical research and development needs for current and future space operations; (2) anticipate how technical research and development advancements might shape future directions and implementation of space security policy; and (3) develop more impactful research and development proposals and effective policy initiatives.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

To have value, comparisons of high-throughput phenotyping methods need statistical tests of bias and variance

The gap between genomics and phenomics is narrowing. The rate at which it is narrowing, however, is being slowed by improper statistical comparison of methods. Quantification using Pearson’s correlation coefficient ( r ) is commonly used to assess method quality, but it is an often misleading statistic for this purpose as it is unable to provide information about the relative quality of two methods. Using r can both erroneously discount methods that are inherently more precise and validate methods that are less accurate. These errors occur because of logical flaws inherent in the use of r when comparing methods, not as a problem of limited sample size or the unavoidable possibility of a type I error. A popular alternative to using r is to measure the limits of agreement (LOA). However both r and LOA fail to identify which instrument is more or less variable than the other and can lead to incorrect conclusions about method quality. An alternative approach, comparing variances of methods, requires repeated measurements of the same subject, but avoids incorrect conclusions. Variance comparison is arguably the most important component of method validation and, thus, when repeated measurements are possible, variance comparison provides considerable value to these studies. Statistical tests to compare variances presented here are well established, easy to interpret and ubiquitously available. The widespread use of r has potentially led to numerous incorrect conclusions about method quality, hampering development, and the approach described here would be useful to advance high throughput phenotyping methods but can also extend into any branch of science. The adoption of the statistical techniques outlined in this paper will help speed the adoption of new high throughput phenotyping techniques by indicating when one should reject a new method, outright replace an old method or conditionally use a new method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

Over 3 million people still die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (e.g., to avoid 1.5°C of warming) may also dramatically improve air quality and public health. Yet there has been no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes under different energy pathways and local clean air management decisions in China. In particular, further research is needed to understand the relationships among climate and clean air polices and future health burdens in China, where an aging population will further exacerbate the impacts of air pollution. Using a China-focused integrated assessment model (GCAM-China) and a dynamic emission projection model (DPEC), we project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (i.e. 1.5°0C, 2°C, NDC, unambitious, baseline, and 4.5°C) as well as national clean air actions (i.e. 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluate the health impacts of PM2·5 air pollution of scenario matrix using the chemical transport model WRF-CMAQ and the latest epidemiological concentration–response (C-R) functions (i.e. GBD2019). We find that, without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., under current NDC pledges), Chinese deaths related the PM2.5 air pollution do not substantially decrease—and often grow—by mid-century, regardless of clean air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in scenarios that track China’s current NDC pledge and deploy best-available pollution control technologies, PM 2.5 -related deaths in China decrease slightly by 2030 (to 1.2 million per year) but no further by mid-century (Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goals; 1.2 million deaths in 2050) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (27.2 to 16.0 µg/m 3 from 2030 to 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios reveals the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the established fact of increasing age of China’s population in future. Substantial decreases in China’s PM 2.5 -related deaths and age-standardized death rates (e.g., decreasing by 0.3–0.5 million deaths and 10.2–14.2 per 100,000 population age-standardized death rates per year) thus require the sort of large-scale transition in energy sources entailed by scenarios that meet international climate goals to avoid 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (Ambitious-pollution-2°C- and 1.5°C-goals).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the effectiveness of M-AMBI with other biotic indexes in a temperate estuary

Need for a scalable and widely applicable index has been increasingly important. This study evaluates the applicability of the M-AMBI, a potential comprehensive index, at small spatial scales. M-AMBI was compared to regional indices (EMAP-E and GOM B-IBI), assessing response to natural environmental gradients and low oxygen stress. Results indicate poor agreement between indices with M-AMBI and GOM B-IBI showing positive correlation but significant disagreement in habitat condition. EMAP-E had no agreement. Indices showed similar patterns of better habitat scores in higher salinities. M-AMBI also showed a negative relationship with sediment organic matter and total nitrogen. DO influenced all indices with M-AMBI the most sensitive. However, mismatches between DO and index score were observed further calibration may be needed before adoption into programs. Altogether, the M-AMBI demonstrates potential at smaller, local scales, but additional studies are needed to validate its performance in different coastal environments and under different conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2023 Billion-Ton Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technology Office's (BETO's) 2023 Billion-Ton Report (BT23) is an assessment of renewable carbon resources potentially available in the United States. BT23 explores these resources in terms of quantity, price, geographical density and distribution, and market maturity. Resource quantities in this report are limited by specified economic and environmental sustainability constraints. Good practices are needed to ensure biomass production has positive environmental outcomes. BT23 supports BETO's mission, particularly the 2023 Multi-Year Program Plan. To access 2023 Billion-Ton Report PDFs, appendices, and high-level messages, navigate to the 2023 Billion-Ton Report landing page at https://energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/2023-billion-ton-report-assessment-us-renewable-carbon-resources on the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office website. To access information about the quality assumptions used in this report, please see the Biomass Feedstock Library at https://bioenergylibrary.inl.gov/Home/Home.aspx Please cite the 2023 Billion-Ton Report as: U.S. Department of Energy. 2024. 2023 Billion‐Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources. M. H. Langholtz (Lead). Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. ORNL/SPR-2024/3103. doi: 10.23720/BT2023/2316165. Contact Us

BT23↗

Uncertain quantum computing futures and potential energy and physical resource impacts at scale

Considerable attention has recently focused on the vast energy and water demands of supercomputing, namely large-scale data centers that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), one of the great disruptors of contemporary society. Looking ahead some years from now, quantum computing is poised to disrupt established computing paradigms once again. Scientists and engineers are now working intensely to bring this century-old dream of physicists to fruition. Yet, as quantum computers begin to be integrated with classical supercomputing architectures, the implications for energy and physical resource use also need to be understood, especially how they compare to today’s AI data centers. These impacts have not yet been quantified by the research community – a notable gap in the literature, even if commercial-scale deployment of Quantum-Accelerated Computing Infrastructure (QuACI) is not expected for a few more years. This study is the first to conduct such an assessment. Using publicly available information from academic sources and private industry, we characterize multiple configurations of superconducting qubit-based, fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) that could plausibly be deployed at scale in the 2030s and into the 2040s. By parameterizing these FTQC systems at a process level, we conduct a prospective scenario analysis to quantify their energy and physical resource needs. While these estimates are uncertain, given the current state of quantum technologies and their unknown future trajectories, important insights can already be drawn. One key finding is that while the electricity needs for a fleet of FTQCs are within the bounds of previous modeling studies that have explored high electricity demand futures, the needs for certain physical resources, namely water and helium-3, could pose bottlenecks to QuACI scale-up.

Computing↗

Accident event progression, gaps, and key performance indicators for steam generator tube rupture events in water-cooled SMRs: A review

According to historical records of reactor-related incidents, a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) is one of the most common occurrences at operating pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Such design-basis accidents (DBAs) could lead to a direct path for radionuclides to be released to the atmosphere via the safety and relief valves, making assessments of radionuclide discharge from operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) into the environment crucial for ensuring safety. In such analyses, the primary focus has been on the extent of radioactive release, not the potential damage to the core. Moreover, significant and timely intervention by operators is needed during the initial stages of SGTRs in order to avert overfilling of the SGs, as well as to restrict the dissemination of radioactive materials. Determining the event sequence and phases that occur during an SGTR incident in an advanced passive (e.g., AP1000) water-cooled nuclear reactor is crucial for implementing effective passive safety systems (PSSs) for a specific water-cooled small modular reactor (SMR) design. Here this study provides a comprehensive review of the accident event progression, associated physical phenomena, knowledge gaps, and key performance indicators that must be evaluated and assessed in thermal-hydraulics models, based on relevant test data, respectively.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Non-destructive evaluation and machine learning methods for inspection of spent nuclear fuel canisters: A state-of-the-art review

Nuclear energy is among the cleanest and most efficient energy sources currently available. The operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) produces large amounts of high-level radioactive waste known as spent nuclear fuel (SNF). Currently, large amounts of SNF is stored in dry cask storage systems (DCSSs) for extended interim storage until a permanent disposal solution becomes available. During the extended interim storage, the DCSS, particularly the SNF canisters, may degrade and abnormal conditions may occur. Therefore, non-destructive evaluation (NDE) and machine learning (ML) approaches are necessary for inspection of SNF canisters. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of literature by summarizing recent progress made on the applications of NDE and ML for inspection of SNF canisters. Sixteen NDE methods are examined and compared: visual inspection, ultrasonic guided waves (UGWs), laser-based approaches, acoustic emission (AE), eddy current testing (ECT), non-invasive acoustic sensing, dynamic modal testing, cosmic ray muons tomography, neutron imaging, gamma rays detection, fiber optical sensors, through-wall communications, X-ray computed tomography (CT), vibrothermography, monoenergetic photon sources, and surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensors. The technology readiness level (TRL) for each method is assessed and compared. Recent publications on ML-enhanced visual inspection, AE, non-invasive acoustic sensing, dynamic modal testing, and neutron imaging for SNF canisters are summarized and future research needs are identified. In conclusion, this review article provides a convenient reference on the state-of-the-art applications of NDE and ML methods for inspection of SNF canisters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluating system responses to electric vehicle charging infrastructure expansion through data-driven simulation

Understanding the system responses to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure expansion, including vehicle charging needs, station utilization, and energy consumption, is critical for effective planning to meet growing charging demand without unnecessary resource investment. This study evaluates the system responses to EV charging infrastructure expansion, focusing on charging needs, station utilization, and energy consumption. Using trip data from the National Household Travel Survey and origin–destination patterns, we simulated trip chains in downtown Atlanta with 10 % EV penetration. We assessed 32 scenarios involving different charging port power levels and siting strategies. Furthermore, we found that higher-power ports were more sensitive to placement, with concentrated expansion boosting station utilization more than uniform expansion. Adding high-power ports did not always increase peak energy consumption; in some cases, a few 400 kW ports reduced overall consumption compared to 150 kW ports by enabling faster charging and higher vehicle turnover.

Electric vehicle↗

3D simulations of inertial confinement fusion implosions part 2: systematic flow anomalies and impact of low modes on performances in OMEGA experiments

We present the first 3D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of directly driven inertial confinement fusion implosions with an inline package for polarized crossed-beam energy transfer, which were used to assess the impact of the current distributed polarization rotators (DPRs) on OMEGA as well as other known sources of asymmetry. Applied to OMEGA implosions, the simulations predict bang times with no need for ad hoc multipliers, as well as yields—if you separately account for the impacts of imprint and fuel age. The magnitude of the flow is well reproduced when the low mode sources are large, whereas the modeling of the stalk is thought to be required to match the flow magnitude in the remaining cases. For the cases explored in more detail, polarized cross-beam energy transfer (CBET)—the only known systematic drive asymmetry, brought the results closest to the measured flow vectors. The remaining discrepancies are shown to be stemming from the limited knowledge of the laser pointing modes. For typical current levels of beam mispointing, power imbalance, target offset, and asymmetry caused by polarized CBET, low modes degrade the yield by more than 40%. The current strategy of attempting to compensate the mode-1 asymmetry with a preimposed target offset recovers only about one-third of the losses caused by the low modes due to the dynamic nature of the multiple asymmetries and the presence of low modes other than l = 1. Furthermore, addressing the root causes of the drive asymmetries is apt to be more beneficial. To that end, one possible solution to the specific issue of polarized CBET (10 µm DPRs) is shown to work well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

What drives the scatter of local star-forming galaxies in the BPT diagrams? A Machine Learning based analysis

ABSTRACT We investigate which physical properties are most predictive of the position of local star forming galaxies on the BPT diagrams, by means of different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. Exploiting the large statistics from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we define a framework in which the deviation of star-forming galaxies from their median sequence can be described in terms of the relative variations in a variety of observational parameters. We train artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) trees to predict whether galaxies are offset above or below the sequence (via classification), and to estimate the exact magnitude of the offset itself (via regression). We find, with high significance, that parameters primarily associated to variations in the nitrogen-over-oxygen abundance ratio (N/O) are the most predictive for the [N ii]-BPT diagram, whereas properties related to star formation (like variations in SFR or EW(H α)) perform better in the [S ii]-BPT diagram. We interpret the former as a reflection of the N/O–O/H relationship for local galaxies, while the latter as primarily tracing the variation in the effective size of the S+ emitting region, which directly impacts the [S ii] emission lines. This analysis paves the way to assess to what extent the physics shaping local BPT diagrams is also responsible for the offsets seen in high redshift galaxies or, instead, whether a different framework or even different mechanisms need to be invoked.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TOWARDS RAPID RESPONSE UPDATES OF POPULATIONS AT RISK

Understanding population at risks has been a focus of the LandScan program through its development of population estimates. With advancements in computer vision, deep learning technologies and access to High Performance Computing (HPC) and high resolution imagery, population estimates are now modeled at the building level. However, when those patterns are disrupted, rapid updates to population distribution estimates are needed to support humanitarian aid and response. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recently adapted an existing deep learning building footprint extraction model in development of a scalable approach to Building Damage Assessments (BDA). This new opportunity opens the possibility of automating BDA to support rapid population distribution estimate updates for geographic areas involved in geopolitical conflicts or natural events for humanitarian aid and response or where to focus recovery efforts. In addition, incorporate social surveys to further model human behavior under conflict or other scenarios that disrupt normal patterns of life.

Urban, Marie↗

Microfluidic droplets with amended culture media cultivate a greater diversity of soil microorganisms

ABSTRACT Uncultivated but abundant soil microorganisms have untapped potential for producing broad ranges of natural products, as well as for bioremediation. However, cultivating soil microorganisms while maintaining a broad microorganism diversity to enable phenotyping and functional analysis of as diverse individual isolates as possible remains challenging. In this study, we developed and tested the ability of several culture media formulations that contain defined soil metabolites or soil extracts to maintain microorganism diversity during culture. We also assessed their performance in microfluidic droplet cultivation where single-soil microorganism isolates were encapsulated and cultivated in picoliter-volume water-in-oil emulsion droplets to enable clonal growth needed for downstream functional analyses. Our results show that droplet cultivation with media supplemented by soil extract or soil metabolites enables the recovery of soil microorganisms with higher diversity (up to 1.5-fold higher richness) compared to bulk cultivation methods. Importantly, 1.7-fold more of less abundant (<1%) phyla and 11-fold more of unique genera were recovered, demonstrating the utility of this method for interrogating highly diverse soil microorganisms for broad ranges of applications. IMPORTANCE Although soil microorganisms hold a significant value in bioproduction and bioremediation, only a small fraction—less than 1%—can be cultured under specific media and cultivation conditions. This indicates that there are ample opportunities in harvesting the diverse environmental microorganisms if isolating and recovering these uncultured microorganisms are possible. This paper presents a new cultivation technique composed of isolating single-soil microorganism cell from anin situsoil microorganism community in microfluidic droplets and conducting in-droplet cultivation in media supplemented by soil extract or soil metabolites. This method enables the recovery of a broader diversity of the original microorganism community, laying the groundwork for a high-throughput phenotyping of these diverse microorganisms from their natural habitats.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

A novel assay to measure low-density lipoproteins binding to proteoglycans

Background: The binding of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) to proteoglycans (PGs) in the extracellular matrix (ECM) of the arterial intima is a key initial step in the development of atherosclerosis. Although many techniques have been developed to assess this binding, most of the methods are labor-intensive and technically challenging to standardize across research laboratories. Thus, sensitive, and reproducible assay to detect LDL binding to PGs is needed to screen clinical populations for atherosclerosis risk. Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop a quantitative, and reproducible assay to evaluate the affinity of LDL towards PGs and to replicate previously published results on LDL-PG binding. Methods: Immunofluorescence microscopy was performed to visualize the binding of LDL to PGs using mouse vascular smooth muscle (MOVAS) cells. An in-cell ELISA (ICE) was also developed and optimized to quantitatively measure LDL-PG binding using fixed MOVAS cells cultured in a 96-well format. Results: We used the ICE assay to show that, despite equal APOB concentrations, LDL isolated from adults with cardiovascular disease bound to PG to a greater extent than LDL isolated from adults without cardiovascular disease (p<0.05). Conclusion: We have developed an LDL-PG binding assay that is capable of detecting differences in PG binding affinities despite equal APOB concentrations. Future work will focus on candidate apolipoproteins that enhance or diminish this interaction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Applications of GIS and remote sensing in public participation and stakeholder engagement for watershed management

The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies for the development of water quality management programs and for post-implementation assessments has increased dramatically in the past decade. This increase in adoption has been made more accessible through the interfaces of many popular software tools used in the regulation and assessment of water quality. Customized applications of these tools will increase, as ease of access and affordability of directly monitored and remotely sensed datasets improve over time. Concurrently, there is a need for inclusive participatory engagement with stakeholders to achieve solutions to current watershed management challenges. This paper explores the potential of these GIS and remote sensing datasets, tools, models, and immersive engagement technologies from other domains, for improving public participation and stakeholder engagement throughout the watershed planning process. To do so, an initial review is presented about the use of GIS and remote sensing in watershed management and its role in impairment identification, model development, and planning and implementation. Then, ways in which GIS and remote sensing can be integrated with stakeholder engagement through (1) leveraging GIS and remote sensing datasets, and (2) stakeholder engagement approaches including outreach and education, modeler-led development, and stakeholder-led involvement and feedback, are discussed. Finally, future perspectives on the potential for transforming public participation and stakeholder engagement in the watershed management process through applications of GIS and remote sensing are presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗