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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

A Subsonic Aircraft Design Optimization With Neural Network and Regression Approximators

The Flight-Optimization-System (FLOPS) code encountered difficulty in analyzing a subsonic aircraft. The limitation made the design optimization problematic. The deficiencies have been alleviated through use of neural network and regression approximations. The insight gained from using the approximators is discussed in this paper. The FLOPS code is reviewed. Analysis models are developed and validated for each approximator. The regression method appears to hug the data points, while the neural network approximation follows a mean path. For an analysis cycle, the approximate model required milliseconds of central processing unit (CPU) time versus seconds by the FLOPS code. Performance of the approximators was satisfactory for aircraft analysis. A design optimization capability has been created by coupling the derived analyzers to the optimization test bed CometBoards. The approximators were efficient reanalysis tools in the aircraft design optimization. Instability encountered in the FLOPS analyzer was eliminated. The convergence characteristics were improved for the design optimization. The CPU time required to calculate the optimum solution, measured in hours with the FLOPS code was reduced to minutes with the neural network approximation and to seconds with the regression method. Generation of the approximators required the manipulation of a very large quantity of data. Design sensitivity with respect to the bounds of aircraft constraints is easily generated.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

Remote Radiation Sensing Using Aerial and Ground Platforms

Remote sensing of ionizing radiation has a significant role in waste management, nuclear material management and nonproliferation, and radiation safety. Robotic platforms can surpass the number of tasks that are achieved by humans. With this technique, the operator's radiation exposure can be decreased. Remote sensing allows for the evaluation and monitoring of radiological contamination. Gamma-ray and neutron sensors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. This approach allows for the radiation sensor data to be dynamically tracked and mapped thus enabling further analysis of the radiation flux in temporal and spatial domains. The goal is to complete scheduled tasks while the robot is being irradiated. To achieve this, electronic components must be shielded and radiation hardened. CZT Detector: Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector technology has been a promising solution for gamma-ray and x-ray measurements. Detector data is transferred to the Odroid minicomputer that controls and powers the module via the USB. Robot Operating System (ROS) was utilized for data acquisition and data fusion. The Mariscotti method was employed for the spectrum analysis. A function was programmed in ROS for the automatic identification of photopeaks. CLYC Detector: A Cs{sub 2}LiYCl{sub 6}:Ce{sup 3+} (CLYC) detector was used for simultaneous medium-resolution gamma-ray measurements and neutron counting. A 2.54 cm diameter photomultiplier tube (PMT) was equipped with a high voltage supply and a miniature digitizer. Gamma-ray excitation: fast core-to-valence luminescence (CVL) with 1 ns decay constant, and prompt Ce{sup 3+} emission with 50 ns decay constant. Neutron excitation: slow cerium self-trapped excitation (Ce{sup 3+} STE), 1000 ns decay constant. Radiation Source Localization: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and gradient-based methods were used to locate the position of a radiation source based on measured radiation intensities. Multi-Particle Transport Code FLUKA: Estimation of radiation damage of the electronic components is important in order to optimize the robot's operational time while it is irradiated. Displacement per atom (DPA) represents the radiation damage in materials exposed to the ionizing radiation. Various shielding layers of different thickness t were analyzed (< 5% statistical error). The model of the controller of the UAS was designed in FLUKA. Conclusion: CZT and CLYC detectors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. Radiation source localization and contour mapping using robotic platforms were studied. Functions for data analysis and fusion were developed in ROS. FLUKA code was utilized to analyze DPA values. Layers of low-density and high-density materials were used to shield the UAS electronics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Measuring and Modeling Shared Visual Attention

Multi-person teams are sometimes responsible for critical tasks, such as flying an airliner. Here we present a method using gaze tracking data to assess shared visual attention, a term we use to describe the situation where team members are attending to a common set of elements in the environment. Gaze data are quantized with respect to a set of N areas of interest (AOIs); these are then used to construct a time series of N dimensional vectors, with each vector component representing one of the AOIs, all set to 0 except for the component corresponding to the currently fixated AOI, which is set to 1. The resulting sequence of vectors can be averaged in time, with the result that each vector component represents the proportion of time that the corresponding AOI was fixated within the given time interval. We present two methods for comparing sequences of this sort, one based on computing the time-varying correlation of the averaged vectors, and another based on a chi-square test testing the hypothesis that the observed gaze proportions are drawn from identical probability distributions.We have evaluated the method using synthetic data sets, in which the behavior was modeled as a series of activities, each of which was modeled as a first-order Markov process. By tabulating distributions for pairs of identical and disparate activities, we are able to perform a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, allowing us to choose appropriate criteria and estimate error rates.We have applied the methods to data from airline crews, collected in a high-fidelity flight simulator (Haslbeck, Gontar Schubert, 2014). We conclude by considering the problem of automatic (blind) discovery of activities, using methods developed for text analysis.

attention↗

Low Count and Background Radionuclides Analysis - 20488

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is often faced with the need to evaluate radionuclides at low concentrations. When site sample data are likely to be close to threshold activity concentrations of interest, then the means by which the radiochemical analysis is performed and reported is critical. This situation can occur when differentiating from zero (presence/absence) for radionuclides that do not occur naturally, close comparison with environmental background for naturally occurring radionuclides, close comparison with a risk- or dose-based threshold concentrations of interest, or even comparisons across studies. There are several analytical issues that are of concern, but the two that appear to cause incorrect decisions to be made most often involve establishing detection limits and subtracting ambient background conditions in the laboratory. These issues are not critical when radionuclide activity concentrations are large relative to thresholds of concern, but they seem to be poorly understood when it matters. When the comparisons are important and are likely to be close to a threshold of interest, then the general contract with the analytical laboratories needs to be changed so that the right or appropriate data are obtained. The concern is that important decisions are made incorrectly more often as greater scrutiny is placed on DoE's radionuclide cleanup or monitoring decisions by the public and other stakeholders. Examples are presented of problems that have been observed for different projects, both within and outside the realm of DOE and NRC remediation and radioactive waste disposal problems, and solutions are offered that should lead to better data from which important decisions need to be made. The first example is from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and involves radionuclide concentrations in soil and rock beneath LANL's Material Disposal Area (MDA) G. An initial review of the data led to a conclusion that americium and plutonium are a long way present beneath MDA G. A more thorough review of the data that accounted properly for ambient background and the detection limits that had been established led to the opposite conclusion. Another example is from the Nevada National Security Site where tritium results from one of the wells were unexpectedly high. Proper understanding and analysis of ambient background led to the conclusion that the increased concentrations were not so obvious, and that a different contract with the analytical laboratory was needed to provide more appropriate data to support a better determination. Other examples are used from regulatory review of projects in Nevada, where background levels and secular equilibrium for naturally occurring radionuclides are not established correctly because of analytical issues. The same basic issues have also been found to create difficulties analyzing historical data from the West Valley Demonstration Project. There is evidence in the data that the apparent lack of secular equilibrium where it is expected to exist is related to ambient background subtraction or other analytical issues. A final example is presented for analysis of Tc-99 in samples of depleted uranium. In this case, two different studies that were performed only three months apart provide quite different results. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the data quality objectives (DQO) process in the mid-1980's to establish decision performance criteria for data collection. EPA guidance (EPA G-4, for example) clearly distinguishes between DQOs and measurement performance objectives (MQOs) that should be addressed for laboratory analysis of samples. The language of DQOs and MQOs has become confused over time it seems, and the subsequent effects seem to include a lack of attention to decision performance and a routine approach to measurement quality. In order to better address radionuclide sample analysis when the concentrations are close to thresholds of concern, which might be zero for some radionuclides, background for others, and risk-based thresholds for yet others, it is important that routine laboratory analysis methods are adjusted, and that the project team and the laboratory work closely together to ensure that the data meets the MQO requirements of laboratory analysis and reporting of results, and that the MQOs effectively support project-specific DQOs. This basic approach will be applied in Los Alamos in the coming year to the collection of moisture data from underneath MDA T that will be analyzed for americium and neptunium isotopes. Proper understanding of the radiochemistry methods and reporting, and of appropriate statistical methods is critical to the success of such projects, ensuring that the right decisions are made. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

The determination of the satellite orbit of Mariner 9.

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the Mars orbital phase of the Mariner 9 trajectory as determined from Earth based radio data. Both the method and accuracy of the orbit determination process are reviewed. Analysis is presented to show the effects of Mars gravity model and node in the plane of the sky errors on the accuracy of orbit determination. In addition the long term evolution of the orbit from insertion to date is presented, and is decomposed into effects from the Mars gravity field, n-body perturbations, and solar radiation pressure. Since the orbit period is nearly commensurable with the Mars rotational period, the orbit experiences significant resonance perturbations. The primary perturbation is in-track with a maximum amplitude of 1000 km and a wavelength of 39 revolutions.

Born, G. H.↗

Refining HPCToolkit for application performance analysis at exascale

As part of the US Department of Energy’s Exascale Computing Project (ECP), Rice University has been refining its HPCToolkit performance tools to better support measurement and analysis of applications executing on exascale supercomputers. To efficiently collect performance measurements of GPU-accelerated applications, HPCToolkit employs novel non-blocking data structures to communicate performance measurements between tool threads and application threads. To attribute performance information in detail to source lines, loop nests, and inlined call chains, HPCToolkit performs parallel analysis of large CPU and GPU binaries involved in the execution of an exascale application to rapidly recover mappings between machine instructions and source code. To analyze terabytes of performance measurements gathered during executions at exascale, HPCToolkit employs distributed-memory parallelism, multithreading, sparse data structures, and out-of-core streaming analysis algorithms. To support interactive exploration of profiles up to terabytes in size, HPCToolkit’s hpcviewer graphical user interface uses out-of-core methods to visualize performance data. The result of these efforts is that HPCToolkit now supports collection, analysis, and presentation of profiles and traces of GPU-accelerated applications at exascale. These improvements have enabled HPCToolkit to efficiently measure, analyze and explore terabytes of performance data for executions using as many as 64K MPI ranks and 64K GPU tiles on ORNL’s Frontier supercomputer. HPCToolkit’s support for measurement and analysis of GPU-accelerated applications has been employed to study a collection of open-science applications developed as part of ECP. This paper reports on these experiences, which provided insight into opportunities for tuning applications, strengths and weaknesses of HPCToolkit itself, as well as unexpected behaviors in executions at exascale.

Adhianto, Laksono↗

Demonstration of the On-the-Fly Shielding Analysis Method: Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition

This report documents work performed supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) Integrated Waste Management activities under work breakdown structure element 1.08.02.04.01, “Data and Tools Development, Validation, and Maintenance.” In particular, this report fulfills milestone M3SF-21OR020401016, “Implement on-the-fly dose analysis methodology in UNF-ST&DARDS” within work package SF-21OR02040101, “Commercial SNF Characterization - ORNL.” The Used Nuclear Fuel - Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNFST& DARDS) enables automated dose rate calculations for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation packages and storage casks using a Monte Carlo radiation transport code. The explicit method uses a detailed model of the SNF system and its contents. Therefore, a dose rate calculation is required for each as-loaded transportation package or storage cask because the SNF assemblies within a canister typically have unique irradiation characteristics. An alternate method, referred to as the “on-the-fly” shielding analysis method, has been proposed that requires only a set of Monte Carlo dose rate calculations for each transportation packaging/storage cask design. The results of the Monte Carlo dose rate calculations are independent of the SNF assembly irradiation and decay characteristics. The dose rate values may then be combined with the radiation source strength of the SNF assemblies associated with a particular transportation packaging/storage cask design to determine actual dose rates. This report presents on-the-fly dose rate calculations for a representative SNF storage cask and verification of the on-the-fly dose rate calculation results by comparison with reference dose rate calculations using the explicit Monte Carlo dose rate calculation. The on-the-fly shielding analysis method was implemented in UNF-ST&DARDS. A Python program was developed to process the MAVRIC dose rate results obtained by source particle type, energy group, and fuel geometry region. A Python processor created binary files, which were saved as a special UNF-ST&DARDS library for on-the- fly shielding analyses. UNF-ST&DARDS uses the precalculated on-the-fly binary libraries generated by the Python data processor and directly executes the Python code for on-the-fly dose analysis. This Python code unzips the pre-generated binary files mentioned above, reads the data, and combines them with user-specified sources for dose and uncertainty calculations. The Python programs were verified using Excel calculations and by comparison with the values obtained with the MAVRIC post-processing utilities applied to the 3dmap files. This method can currently be used to determine dose rates for as-loaded HI-STORM FW storage casks. The UNF-ST&DARDS analysis wizard for on-the-fly shielding analysis is described in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

IER 488: MUSiC Accomplishments and Goals [Slides]

IER-488: Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) consists of measurements of bare, HEU systems covering a large range of reactivities. Multiple detector systems and analysis methods are being used to obtain detector-independent results. Massive amounts of data and information available. Substantial analysis has been completed for both critical and subcritical configurations. Work in progress is largely novel research and will result in several conference proceedings, journal publications, and a subcritical benchmark. There is still a large amount of data that has not been analyzed and much more to come from the analysis of the Measurements of Uranium Subcritical and Critical.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the Assessment and Uncertainty of Atmospheric Trace Gas Burden Measurements with High Resolution Infrared Solar Occultation Spectra from Space by the ATMOS Experiment

The Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) instrument is a high resolution Fourier transform spectrometer that measures atmospheric composition from low Earth orbit with infrared solar occultation sounding in the limb geometry. Following an initial flight in 1985, ATMOS participated in the Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS) 1, 2, and 3 Space Shuttle missions in 1992, 1993, and 1994 yielding a total of 440 occultation measurements over a nine year period. The suite of more than thirty atmospheric trace gases profiled includes CO2, O3, N2O, CH4, H2O, NO, NO2, HNO3, HCl, HF, ClONO2, CCl3F, CCl2F2, CHF2Cl, and N2O5. The analysis method has been revised throughout the mission years culminating in the 'version 2' data set. The spectroscopic error analysis is described in the context of supporting the precision estimates reported with the profiles; in addition, systematic uncertainties assessed from the quality of the spectroscopic database are described and tabulated for comparisons with other experiments.

Abrams, M. C.↗

Data Mining of Polymer Phase Transitions upon Temperature Changes by Small and Wide-Angle X-ray Scattering Combined with Raman Spectroscopy

The complex physical transformations of polymers upon external thermodynamic changes are related to the molecular length of the polymer and its associated multifaceted energetic balance. The understanding of subtle transitions or multistep phase transformation requires real-time phenomenological studies using a multi-technique approach that covers several length-scales and chemical states. A combination of X-ray scattering techniques with Raman spectroscopy and Differential Scanning Calorimetry was conducted to correlate the structural changes from the conformational chain to the polymer crystal and mesoscale organization. Current research applications and the experimental combination of Raman spectroscopy with simultaneous SAXS/WAXS measurements coupled to a DSC is discussed. In particular, we show that in order to obtain the maximum benefit from simultaneously obtained high-quality data sets from different techniques, one should look beyond traditional analysis techniques and instead apply multivariate analysis. Data mining strategies can be applied to develop methods to control polymer processing in an industrial context. Crystallization studies of a PVDF blend with a fluoroelastomer, known to feature complex phase transitions, were used to validate the combined approach and further analyzed by MVA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Image feature extraction and galaxy classification: a novel and efficient approach with automated machine learning

ABSTRACT In this work, we explore the possibility of applying machine learning methods designed for 1D problems to the task of galaxy image classification. The algorithms used for image classification typically rely on multiple costly steps, such as the point spread function deconvolution and the training and application of complex Convolutional Neural Networks of thousands or even millions of parameters. In our approach, we extract features from the galaxy images by analysing the elliptical isophotes in their light distribution and collect the information in a sequence. The sequences obtained with this method present definite features allowing a direct distinction between galaxy types. Then, we train and classify the sequences with machine learning algorithms, designed through the platform Modulos AutoML. As a demonstration of this method, we use the second public release of the Dark Energy Survey (DES DR2). We show that we are able to successfully distinguish between early-type and late-type galaxies, for images with signal-to-noise ratio greater than 300. This yields an accuracy of $86{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for the early-type galaxies and $93{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for the late-type galaxies, which is on par with most contemporary automated image classification approaches. The data dimensionality reduction of our novel method implies a significant lowering in computational cost of classification. In the perspective of future data sets obtained with e.g. Euclid and the Vera Rubin Observatory, this work represents a path towards using a well-tested and widely used platform from industry in efficiently tackling galaxy classification problems at the peta-byte scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Synthesis and Characterization of Fe(III)-Fe(II)- Mg- Al Smectite Solid Solutions and Implications for Planetary Science

This study demonstrates the synergies and limits of multiple measurement types for the detection of smectite chemistry and oxidation state on planetary surfaces to infer past geochemical conditions. Smectite clay minerals are common products of water-rock interactions throughout the solar system, and their detection and characterization provides important clues about geochemical conditions and past environments if sufficient information about their composition can be discerned. Here, we synthesize and report on the spectroscopic properties of a suite of smectite samples that span the intermediate compositional range between Fe(II), Fe(III), Mg, and Al end-member species using bulk chemical analyses, X-ray diffraction, Vis/IR reflectance spectroscopy, UV and green-laser Raman spectroscopy, and Mössbauer spectroscopy. Our data show that smectite composition and the oxidation state of octahedral Fe can be reliably identified in the near infrared on the basis of combination and fundamental metal-OH stretching modes between 2.1–2.9 μm, which vary systematically with chemistry. Smectites dominated by Mg or Fe(III) have spectrally distinct fundamental and combination stretches, whereas Al-rich and Fe(II)-rich smectites have similar fundamental minima near 2.76 μm, but have distinct combination M-OH features between 2.24 and 2.36 μm. We show that with expanded spectral libraries that include intermediate composition smectites and both Fe(III) and Fe(II) oxidation states, more refined characterization of smectites from MIR data is now possible, as the position of the 450 cm–1 absorption shifts systematically with octahedral Fe content, although detailed analysis is best accomplished in concert with other characterization methods. Our data also provide the first Raman spectral libraries of smectite clays as a function of chemistry, and we demonstrate that Raman spectroscopy at multiple excitation wavelengths can qualitatively distinguish smectite clays of different structures and can enhance interpretation by other types of analyses. Our sample set demonstrates how X-ray diffraction can distinguish between dioctahedral and trioctahedral smectites using either the (02,11) or (06,33) peaks, but auxiliary information about chemistry and oxidation state aids in specific identifications. Finally, the temperature-dependent isomer shift and quadrupole splitting in Mössbauer data are insensitive to changes in Fe content but reliability differentiates Fe within the smectite mineral structure.

Valerie K Fox↗

Long‐Term Large‐Scale Atmospheric Forcing Data From Three‐Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis for the ARM SGP Site

Here, this study presents a long‐term three‐dimensional large‐scale forcing data set (VARANAL3D) derived from the three‐dimensional constrained variational analysis (3DCVA) method at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 2004 to 2018. Building on the same input data sets as the conventional continuous forcing data set (VARANAL), VARANAL3D maintains overall consistency in domain‐averaged fields while introducing spatial variability, offering critical insights into the influence of mesoscale synoptic systems on cloud‐related processes. Evaluations are conducted across four cloud and precipitation regimes: Clear‐sky, Shallow‐clouds, Afternoon‐precipitation, and Nocturnal‐precipitation, presenting high consistency of the domain‐mean forcing data sets while emphasizing the role of subdomain forcing variability particularly in precipitating regimes. Single column model (SCM) simulations demonstrate that subdomain VARANAL3D forcing improves cloud and precipitation representation, with the ensemble outperforming domain‐mean forcing in three cloudy and precipitating regimes. Overall, these results highlight VARANAL3D's value for investigating the impacts of spatial variability of large‐scale forcing on atmospheric processes. The VARANAL3D data set provides new opportunities for evaluating model physics, advancing the development of scale‐aware parameterizations and deepening our understanding of cloud and precipitation dynamics.

Environmental sciences↗

Time-dependent solution for axisymmetric flow over a blunt body with ideal gas, CF4, or equilibrium air chemistry

A time-asymptotic method has been used to obtain steady-flow solutions for axisymmetric inviscid flow over several blunt bodies including spheres, paraboloids, ellipsoids, and spherically blunted cones. Comparisons with experimental data and results of other computational methods have demonstrated that accurate solutions can be obtained using this approach. The method should prove useful as an analysis tool for comparing with experimental data and for making engineering calculations for blunt reentry vehicles.

Hamilton, H. H., II↗

Searching for axionlike particles from core-collapse supernovae with Fermi LAT’s low-energy technique

Light axionlike particles (ALPs) are expected to be abundantly produced in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), resulting in a ~ 10 -second long burst of ALPs. These particles subsequently undergo conversion into gamma rays in external magnetic fields to produce a long gamma-ray burst (GRB) with a characteristic spectrum peaking in the 30–100-MeV energy range. At the same time, CCSNe are invoked as progenitors of ordinary long GRBs, rendering it relevant to conduct a comprehensive search for ALP spectral signatures using the observations of long GRBs with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). We perform a data-driven sensitivity analysis to determine CCSN distances for which a detection of an ALP signal is possible with the LAT’s low-energy technique which, in contrast to the standard LAT analysis, allows for a a larger effective area for energies down to 30 MeV. Assuming an ALP mass m a ≲ 10 - 10 eV and ALP-photon coupling g a γ = 5.3 × 10 - 12 GeV - 1 , values considered and deduced in ALP searches from SN1987A, we find that the distance limit ranges from ~ 0.5 to ~ 10 Mpc , depending on the sky location and the CCSN progenitor mass. Furthermore, we select a candidate sample of 24 GRBs and carry out a model comparison analysis in which we consider different GRB spectral models with and without an ALP signal component. We find that the inclusion of an ALP contribution does not result in any statistically significant improvement of the fits to the data. Finally, we discuss the statistical method used in our analysis and the underlying physical assumptions, the feasibility of setting upper limits on the ALP-photon coupling, and give an outlook on future telescopes in the context of ALP searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Practical galaxy morphology tools from deep supervised representation learning

Astronomers have typically set out to solve supervised machine learning problems by creating their own representations from scratch. We show that deep learning models trained to answer every Galaxy Zoo DECaLS question learn meaningful semantic representations of galaxies that are useful for new tasks on which the models were never trained. We exploit these representations to outperform several recent approaches at practical tasks crucial for investigating large galaxy samples. The first task is identifying galaxies of similar morphology to a query galaxy. Given a single galaxy assigned a free text tag by humans (e.g. ‘#diffuse’), we can find galaxies matching that tag for most tags. The second task is identifying the most interesting anomalies to a particular researcher. Our approach is 100 per cent accurate at identifying the most interesting 100 anomalies (as judged by Galaxy Zoo 2 volunteers). The third task is adapting a model to solve a new task using only a small number of newly labelled galaxies. Models fine-tuned from our representation are better able to identify ring galaxies than models fine-tuned from terrestrial images (ImageNet) or trained from scratch. We solve each task with very few new labels; either one (for the similarity search) or several hundred (for anomaly detection or fine-tuning). This challenges the longstanding view that deep supervised methods require new large labelled data sets for practical use in astronomy. To help the community benefit from our pretrained models, we release our fine-tuning code zoobot. Zoobot is accessible to researchers with no prior experience in deep learning.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficient method for estimating the time evolution of the proto-neutron star mass and radius from a supernova neutrino signal

In this paper, we present a novel method to estimate the time evolution of the proto-neutron star (PNS) structure from the neutrino signal in a core-collapse supernova (CCSN). Employing recent results from multidimensional CCSN simulations, we delve into a relation between the total emitted neutrino energy (TONE) and PNS mass/radius, and we find that they are strongly correlated with each other. We fit the relation by simple polynomial functions connecting the TONE to the mass and radius of the PNS as a function of time. By combining another fitting function representing the correlation between the TONE and the cumulative number of events at each neutrino observatory, the PNS mass and radius can be retrieved from purely observed neutrino data. We demonstrate retrievals of PNS mass and radius from mock data of the neutrino signal, and we assess the capability of our proposed method. While underlining the limitations of the method, we also discuss the importance of the joint analysis with the gravitational wave signal. This would reduce uncertainties of parameter estimations in our method, and may narrow down the possible neutrino oscillation model. The proposed method is a very easy and inexpensive computation, which will be useful in real data analysis of the CCSN neutrino signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Non-Gaussianity in the weak lensing correlation function likelihood – implications for cosmological parameter biases

ABSTRACT We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in 1D marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in 1D posteriors of Ωm and σ8 due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data (100 deg2). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with 1D parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the 1D marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions. Modelling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of ∼5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗