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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

The Role of the SO2 Radiative Effect in Sustaining the Volcanic Winter and Soothing the Toba Impact on Climate

Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after super-eruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models, and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleo data. Here we present a re-evaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized super-eruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols, and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.

Sergey Osipov↗

Improving Flood and Drought Management in Agricultural River Basins: An Application to the Mun River Basin in Thailand

Agriculture productivity is regularly affected by floods and droughts, and the severity is likely to increase in the future. Even if significant efforts are spent on water development projects, ineffective project planning often means that they continue to occur or are only partly mitigated, for example, in the Mun River Basin, Thailand, where 1000s of water projects have been implemented. Despite this, the basin regularly experiences floods and droughts. In this study, an analysis of the adverse impacts of basin-scale floods and droughts on rice cultivation in the Mun River Basin is conducted, and an estimation of the coping capacity of existing measures. The results demonstrate that while the total storage capacity of in-situ and ongoing projects would be sufficient to tackle both hazards, it can only be achieved if the projects are effectively utilised. Based on this, proposed solutions for the region include small farm ponds, a subsurface floodwater harvesting system, and oxbow lake reconnections. The suggested measures are practicable, economical, environmentally low-impact, and their implementation (if executed with appropriate care) would reduce flood and drought problems in the basin. Notably, the measures and calculation methods proposed for this basin can also be applied to other crops and regions.

Farm pond↗

Medical Database Accomplishments and Lessons Learned - 2021

The Medical Database (MD) is a virtual repository consisting of two software components: the Medical Item Database (MedID) and the Evidence Library (EL). MedID consists of engineering data and associated information for specific medical resource items (e.g., pharmaceutical, medical devices, and supporting components), while the EL is a tool which provides all of the medical evidence necessary. The Medical Database will serve as the single “source of truth” for the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool suite for both medical evidence and medical resource engineering data. It will be used in conjunction with the IMPACT tool suite to inform research prioritizations and perform systematic trade study evaluations using probabilistic risk assessment and simulated human spaceflight missions to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions during Pre-Phase-A planning of human spaceflight missions. The IMPACT project is conducted under the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of the Human Research Program (HRP), within NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. Over the past year, the MedID software has been successfully merged with the Evidence Library into one cohesive Medical Database with two independent user interface experiences for modifying either clinical evidence or resource engineering data. As MD has evolved substantially over the past year, a number of challenges have been encountered and overcome along the way. A number of ‘lessons learned’ and practical/logistical realizations have emerged which will be detailed in the forthcoming Medical Database presentation.

Exploration Medical Capability↗

Analysis of the Approach Direction of the Human Landing System to a South Pole Landing Site Subject to Lighting and Communication Constraints

The NRHO used as the staging orbit for crewed missions to the lunar surface by the HLS remains nearly perpendicular to the Earth-Moon line of sight, however, due to the libration of the Moon the location of the South Pole is ever shifting beneath it. DTE communication as well as ground illumination conditions near the South Pole coincide with lunar libration, with approximately 2-week cycles of DTE communication and solar availability. Additionally, the constant shifting of the South Pole region with respect to the NRHO leads to variations in the nominal HLS approach path to the surface in order to maintain near in-plane alignment of the NRHO, LLO, and approach phase. Making adjustments to the nominal approach path to achieve desired communication and lighting conditions quickly raises in-space ∆V. This analysis compares the ∆V impact of several trajectory strategies that could be used to alter the HLS approach path.

HLS↗

Analysis of the Approach Direction of HLS to a South Pole Landing Site Subject to Lighting and Communication Constraints

The NRHO used as the staging orbit for crewed missions to the lunar surface by the HLS remains nearly perpendicular to the Earth-Moon line of sight, however, due to the libration of the Moon the location of the South Pole is ever shifting beneath it. DTE communication as well as ground illumination conditions near the South Pole coincide with lunar libration, with approximately 2-week cycles of DTE communication and solar availability. Additionally, the constant shifting of the South Pole region with respect to the NRHO leads to variations in the nominal HLS approach path to the surface in order to maintain near in-plane alignment of the NRHO, LLO, and approach phase. Making adjustments to the nominal approach path to achieve desired communication and lighting conditions quickly raises in-space ΔV. This analysis compares the ΔV impact of several trajectory strategies that could be used to alter the HLS approach path.

HLS↗

Analysis of the Value Added When Deploying a Model-Based Approach for the Validation and Verification of the Medical Database Software

The Medical Database (MD) is a virtual repository consisting of two software components: Medical Item Database (MedID) and the Evidence Library (EL). MedID consists of engineering data and associated information for specific medical resource items (e.g., pharmaceutical, medical devices, and supporting components), while the EL is a tool which provides all of the medical evidence necessary. The MD will 1) serve as the single “source of truth” for the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool suite for both medical evidence and medical resource engineering data and 2) will be used in conjunction with the IMPACT tool suite to inform research prioritizations and perform systematic trade study evaluations to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding simulated human spaceflight missions. The MD project used a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to support all life cycles of the software development, while in parallel the human factors engineering team used modeling to support Human Centered Design (HCD) strategies in an effort to improve software usability. HCD is a frequently used approach in design frameworks that develops resolutions to complexities and challenges by involving the human perspective in all steps of the problem-solving process. By integrating the model-based approaches used for systems engineering and human factors activities, the project is able to leverage the model-based artifacts originally created for HCD activities for system level and human factors validation. In this presentation, our team highlights the value added when leveraging these model-based artifacts to support the on-going verification and validation activities.

C. Laing↗

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Medical Diagnosis and Treatment During Space Exploration Missions

BACKGROUND The medical capabilities necessary for long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will differ tremendously from those currently available to crew medical officers (CMOs) on the International Space Station (ISS). Ground support will be more challenging due to distance-related communication delays and data transmission, and resource utilization must be optimized given limited ability for resupply. Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) can help mitigate these limitations. The recent launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools based upon large language models (LLM) support the creation of a smart assistant for onboard triage, diagnosis, and guided treatment of medical conditions during these missions. The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool can help predict which clinical problems and outcomes are likely to occur for a design reference mission (DRM) and assist Medical Operations and systems engineering teams in creating a medical system that may optimally mitigate the predicted risks. The purpose of this study was to identify AI tools currently available or in development for the assistive diagnosis and care of medical conditions predicted for an extended duration Lunar mission. METHODS The 119 medical conditions currently built into the IMPACT suite were categorized into systems, and these diagnoses were used as keywords for our literature search. Using PubMed and Google Scholar, we performed a literature survey of AI tools applicable to these conditions. Article inclusion criteria included publication between the years 2017-2023, as the sentinel paper discussing the “selective attention” driving ChatGPT and other generative transformer models was published in June 2017. Where applicable, we reviewed only the top 1000 research articles (based on relevance) for each of the keywords/phrases. AI tools whose training sets were exclusive to a pediatric patient population were excluded. We also excluded any medical diagnostic tools (such as CT, MRI, mass spectrometry) or procedures (such as endoscopy, surgery) that are unlikely to be available during LDEMs due to mass and volume constraints, CMO knowledge, skills, and abilities, and/or inherent procedural risks. RESULTS Our survey highlighted several AI-driven tools for the triage, diagnosis, and management of those medical conditions highlighted by IMPACT. Selected publications for each medical condition were then screened for inclusion within ten systems-based categories including: general diagnostic tools (25), tools to diagnose and manage respiratory (40), dermatologic (34), neurologic (28), auditory and vestibular (30), ophthalmic (34), musculoskeletal (104), infection-associated (92), and gynecologic (19) conditions, as well as tools that could be deployed in the setting of trauma and emergency (34). CONCLUSIONS Numerous AI-driven tools were highlighted within this literature survey, ranging from chatbot assistants that triage knee pain to vision transformer models for diagnosis of ophthalmic conditions using ocular surface images captured with a mobile phone. Remaining challenges include optimizing connectivity and integration of existing and developing systems into the vehicles or habitats. Notably, findings from this survey could help guide the initial design of an all-encompassing, onboard medical AI assistant for use during future LDEMs.

R A Lacinski↗

Quantification of Design Trade-Offs When Comparing Transonic Truss-Braced Wing to Advanced Tube and Wing Aircraft

Interest in novel aircraft configurations has continued to grow in response to increasing demand for improved fuel efficiency. One such configuration of interest is the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW). Because the improvement of the TTBW comes from increased efficiency during cruise, it offers increasing returns as the mission distance increases. As a result, there is often a crossover point which represents the minimum mission range where the TTBW will offer a fuel burn reduction relative to a similar Tube and Wing aircraft with similar component technology levels. Aircraft rarely fly missions at their maximum range, so it is important to investigate not only the maximum benefit, but also the most likely benefit. Design decisions and analysis assumptions that significantly impact this crossover point include whether to put fuel in body tanks, how weight build-up estimation is calibrated, engine technology selection, and flight Mach number. This study, conducted under NASA’s Sustainable Flight Demonstration project and inspired by differing assumptions made by different research teams, details the impacts of changing these design decisions and assumptions.

Carl J Recine↗

Quantification of Design Trade-Offs When Comparing Transonic Truss-Braced Wing to Advanced Tube and Wing Aircraft

Interest in novel aircraft configurations has continued to grow in response to increasing demand for improved fuel efficiency. One such configuration of interest is the Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW). Because the improvement of the TTBW comes from increased efficiency during cruise, it offers increasing returns as the mission distance increases. As a result, there is often a crossover point which represents the minimum mission range where the TTBW will offer a fuel burn reduction relative to a similar Tube and Wing aircraft with similar component technology levels. Aircraft rarely fly missions at their maximum range, so it is important to investigate not only the maximum benefit, but also the most likely benefit. Design decisions and analysis assumptions that significantly impact this crossover point include whether to put fuel in body tanks, how weight build-up estimation is calibrated, engine technology selection, and flight Mach number. This study, conducted under NASA’s Sustainable Flight Demonstration project and inspired by differing assumptions made by different research teams, details the impacts of changing these design decisions and assumptions.

Carl J Recine↗

New Perspective on Slosh Dynamics in High-Gravity Regimes for Lunar Missions

Slosh dynamics particularly in high gravity regime is of high interest to the NASA Human Landing Systems program, which aims to return humans to the Moon. This paper reexamines the commonly accepted equivalence between pendulum and massspring-damper mechanical analogies, demonstrating the differences through simulations and their impact on design and analysis. This study re-derives equations of motion for these mechanical models including mass-spring-damper (MSD) and pendulum by relaxing simplifying assumptions that had been typically applied to large launch vehicles and may be violated for lunar and planetary landing applications. The newly-derived equations uncover potential modeling gaps when applying the pendulum and MSD models, and the need for additional considerations in their application. Finally, the newly-derived equations are validated using MathWorks® Simscape™ Multibody™ dynamics toolbox simulation.

Pendulum↗

New Perspective On Slosh Dynamics in High-Gravity Regimes for Lunar Missions

Slosh dynamics particularly in high gravity regime is of high interest to the NASA Human Landing Systems program, which aims to return humans to the Moon. This paper reexamines the commonly accepted equivalence between pendulum and mass-spring-damper mechanical analogies, demonstrating the differences through simulations and their impact on design and analysis. This study re-derives equations of motion for these mechanical models including mass-spring-damper (MSD) and pendulum by relaxing simplifying assumptions that had been typically applied to large launch vehicles and may be violated for lunar and planetary landing applications. The newly derived equations uncovers potential modeling gaps when applying the pendulum and MSD models, and the need for additional considerations in their application. Finally, the newly derived equations are validated using MathWorks® Simscape™ Multibody™ dynamics toolbox simulation.

Slosh↗

REopt Lite Overview & Training Exercise

This training exercise provides users with an introduction to and hands-on, interactive exploration of REopt Lite's capabilities. REopt Lite is a free, publicly available techno-economic optimization web tool for distributed energy systems, developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). REopt Lite helps organizations evaluate the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and battery storage; identify system sizes and battery dispatch strategies to minimize energy costs; and estimate how long a system can sustain critical load during a grid outage. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program based in an underlying application programming interface (API) that is also free and publicly available. This training activity is structured as a group exercise. Participants split into eight groups and each group is assigned a different hypothetical site to model and assess the opportunity for solar PV + battery storage. Groups work together to develop results for their site and then re-convene to compare and discuss results, inputs/drivers of the analysis, and other factors impacting the decision-making process for behind-the-meter solar PV and battery storage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamic properties of FeCrMnNi, a High Entropy Alloy

The goal of this paper was to assess the dynamic properties of a new class of materials, High entropy alloys (HEAs). Specifically, gas gun experiments coupled with recovery were performed on a specific HEA, FeCrMnNi, to measure its equation of state (EOS) and its spall strength, which is a measure of the stress required to nucleate voids under shock loading conditions. While there has been a plethora of work performed to assess the mechanical properties of these HEAs under uniaxial stress conditions as a function of strain rate, investigation of its properties in dynamic extremes remains rare. The current work fills this gap in knowledge for this novel class of materials. Our results show that the measured EOS for this material at one velocity was in reasonable agreement with an estimated Hugoniot. Furthermore, while the spall strength for this material was found to be ~1.9 GPa, with some variation based on sample location, the main failure mode wasbrittle. This brittle failure leading to formation of cracks in the material is different than the ductile failure observed in pure iron and its alloys. DOE/NV/03624--1298

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Accelerated Lifetime Test of the SRF Dressed Cavity/Tuner System for LCLS II HE Project

The off-frequency detune method is being considered for application in the LCLS-II-HE superconducting linac to produce multi-energy electron beams for supporting multiple undulator lines simultaneously [1]. Design of the tuner has been changed to deliver roughly 3 times larger frequency tuning range. Working requirements for off-frequency operation (OFO) state that cavities be tuned at least twice a month. This specification requires the in-crease of the tuner longevity by 20 times compared with LCLS-II demands. Accelerated longevity tests of the LCLS-II HE dressed cavity with tuner were conducted at FNAL's HTS. Detail analysis of wearing and impacts on performances of the tuner's piezo and stepper motor actuators will be presented. Additionally, results of longevity testing of the dressed cavity bellow, when cooled down to 2 K and compressed by 2.6 mm for roughly 2000 cycles, will be presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Wind Loading on Parabolic Trough Collectors: Wind and Structural Loads Measurements at an Operational Powerplant

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a promising method for using solar power for electricity generation with thermal energy storage for industrial applications. Solar collectors constitute almost 1/3 of the total cost of the power plant. One of the primary drivers of unrealiability of these collectors is wind-driven loading of mirrors, support structures, and drives. To date, the design of the solar collector structures has relied on data from wind tunnels that do not adequately capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. NREL initiated a field measurement campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) parabolic trough powerplant. At this plant, parabolic trough solar collectors track the sun from east to west in the course of a day and face varying wind loads depending on the wind properties and the angle of the troughs. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs, providing insights into structural dynamic response, and generating a comprehensive wind-loading dataset for validating simulations of wind loading on collector structures. The measurements at NSO consist of sonic anemometers on masts at different heights to characterize the incoming flow and conditions at four trough rows at the edge of the trough field. In addition, a Doppler Lidar scans the horizontal plane above the troughs. The wind measurements at NSO have been continuously collecting data since October 2021 and are combined with structural load measurements that started in November 2022. The load measurements were installed on the same four outermost trough rows and include support structure bending moments, drive torque moments, dynamic accelerations of the spaceframe, mirror displacement, and tilt angles. Measurements are planned to continue until May 2023, providing a first-of-a-kind, high-resolution multi-month dataset of combined wind and load measurements. In this presentation, we show first results of the measurement campaign. Based on the measurements, we identified three main factors altering the flow over the parabolic troughs: Wind speed, wind direction, and the angle of the parabolic troughs. Most interactions between incoming wind and the trough field are observed when the wind blows perpendicular to the trough rows. In this case, the first rows experience the highest wind speed and block the downwind rows, creating conditions with decreased wind speed and enhanced turbulence within the trough field. Also, turbulent length scales are smaller after the first row. This leads to the highest static loads (bending and torque moments) at the first row but potentially increased dynamic loads within the field. We illustrate our findings with case studies focused on different wind conditions and will present fatigue analysis to highlight the impact of wind-driven loads on collector structures.

CSP collectors↗