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Deriving Lifetime Maps in the Time/Frequency Domain of Coherent Structures in the Turbulent Boundary Layer

The lifetimes of coherent structures are derived from data correlated over a 3 sensor array sampling streamwise sidewall pressure at high Reynolds number (> 10(exp 8)). The data were acquired at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds aboard a Tupolev Tu-144. The lifetimes are computed from a variant of the correlation length termed the lifelength. Characteristic lifelengths are estimated by fitting a Gaussian distribution to the sensors cross spectra and are shown to compare favorably with Efimtsov s prediction of correlation space scales. Lifelength distributions are computed in the time/frequency domain using an interval correlation technique on the continuous wavelet transform of the original time data. The median values of the lifelength distributions are found to be very close to the frequency averaged result. The interval correlation technique is shown to allow the retrieval and inspection of the original time data of each event in the lifelength distributions, thus providing a means to locate and study the nature of the coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer. The lifelength data are converted to lifetimes using the convection velocity. The lifetime of events in the time/frequency domain are displayed in Lifetime Maps. The primary purpose of the paper is to validate these new analysis techniques so that they can be used with confidence to further characterize the behavior of coherent structures in the turbulent boundary layer.

Palumbo, Dan↗

Thermal-Structural Analysis of PICA Tiles for Solar Tower Test

Thermal protection materials used in spacecraft heatshields are subjected to severe thermal and mechanical loading environments during re-entry into earth atmosphere. In order to investigate the reliability of PICA tiles in the presence of high thermal gradients as well as mechanical loads, the authors designed and conducted solar-tower tests. This paper presents the design and analysis work for this tests series. Coupled non-linear thermal-mechanical finite element analyses was conducted to estimate in-depth temperature distribution and stress contours for various cases. The first set of analyses performed on isolated PICA tile showed that stresses generated during the tests were below the PICA allowable limit and should not lead to any catastrophic failure during the test. The tests results were consistent with analytical predictions. The temperature distribution and magnitude of the measured strains were also consistent with predicted values. The second test series is designed to test the arrayed PICA tiles with various gap-filler materials. A nonlinear contact method is used to model the complex geometry with various tiles. The analyses for these coupons predict the stress contours in PICA and inside gap fillers. Suitable mechanical loads for this architecture will be predicted, which can be applied during the test to exceed the allowable limits and demonstrate failure modes. Thermocouple and strain-gauge data obtained from the solar tower tests will be used for subsequent analyses and validation of FEM models.

Agrawal, Parul↗

Methodology and Results of the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS)

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) have been identified by the current administration as potential destinations for human explorers during the mid-2020s. While the close proximity of these objects' orbits to Earth's orbit creates a risk of highly damaging or catastrophic impacts, it also makes some of these objects particularly accessible to spacecraft departing Earth, and this presents unique opportunities for solar system science and humanity's first ventures beyond cislunar space. Planning such ambitious missions first requires the selection of potentially accessible targets from the growing population of nearly 7,800 NEAs. To accomplish this, NASA is conducting the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). Phase I of the NHATS was executed during September of 2010, and Phase II was completed by early March of 2011. The study is ongoing because previously undetected NEAs are being discovered constantly, which has motivated an effort to automate the analysis algorithms in order to provide continuous monitoring of NEA accessibility. The NHATS analysis process consists of a trajectory filter and a minimum maximum estimated size criterion. The trajectory filter employs the method of embedded trajectory grids to compute all possible ballistic round-trip mission trajectories to every NEA in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Small-Body Database (SBDB) and stores all solutions that satisfy the trajectory filter criteria. An NEA must offer at least one qualifying trajectory solution to pass the trajectory filter. The Phase II NHATS filter criteria were purposely chosen to be highly inclusive, requiring Earth departure date between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2040, total round-trip flight time <= 450 days, stay time at the NEA >= 8 days, Earth departure C(sub 3) energy <= 60 km(exp 2)/s(exp 2), total mission delta-v <= 12 km/s (including an Earth departure maneuver from a 400 km altitude circular parking orbit), and a maximum atmospheric re-entry speed of 12 km/s. After determining which NEAs offer at least one trajectory solution meeting the criteria, the estimated size constraint is then imposed whereby those NEAs may only be considered NHATS- qualifying NEAs if their maximum estimated size is >= 30 m. This corresponds to an absolute magnitude H <= 26.5 with an assumed albedo p = 0:05. The following is a brief high-level summary of the Phase II study results. Of the 7,665 NEAs in the SBDB as of February 3rd, 2011, 765 NEAs passed the trajectory filter and yielded a total of 79,157,604 trajectory solutions. The trajectory solutions for each NEA are post-processed into Pork Chop Contour (PCC) plots which show total mission delta-v as a function of Earth departure date and total mission duration. Although the PCC plots necessarily compress a very multi-dimensional design space into a two-dimensional plot, they permit rapid assessment of the breadth and quality of an NEA's available Earth departure season and clearly indicate the regions of the trajectory design space which warrant further analysis and optimization. The PCC plot for the NEA with the greatest number of NHATS-qualifying trajectory solutions, 2000 SG-344, is shown. Of the 765 NEAs which passed the Phase II trajectory filter, a total of 590 NEAs also satisfied the further constraint of maximum estimated size >= 30 m. The distributions of osculating heliocentric orbital semi-major axis (a), eccentricity (e), and inclination (i), for those 590 NEAs are shown. Note that the semi-latus rectum used is equal to alpha (1-e(exp 2)). To further our understanding of round-trip trajectory accessibility dynamics, it is instructive to examine the distribution of the NHATS-Qualifying NEAs according to orbit classification. NEAs are grouped into four orbit families: Atiras (aphelion < 0.983 AU), Atens (aphelion > 0.983 AU, alpha < 1.0 AU), Apollos (perihelion < 1.017 AU, alpha > 1.0 AU), and Amors (1.017 < perihelion < 1.3 AU). Of the 765 NEAhich satisfied the NHATS trajectory criteria, none are Atiras, 193 are Atens (31% of known Atens), 456 are Apollos (11% of known Apollos), and 116 are Amors (4% of known Amors). While Apollos comprise 60% of the NEAs which pass the NHATS trajectory filter and Atens comprise only 25%, the percentages according to orbit family are perhaps more relevant. Note that only 11% of known Apollos passed the trajectory filter while 31% of known Atens passed. These simple statistics alone strongly suggest that Aten orbits possess features which tend to enhance their round-trip trajectory accessibility as compared to Apollos or Amors. This is significant because Atens' orbits cause them to spend considerable time in Earth's daytime sky, making them difficult to discover and track using ground-based observing assets. In this paper we will detail the NHATS analysis algorithms, present and analyze all NHATS results to date, and discuss aspects of HSF mission architecture design for future NEA missions.

Barbee, Brent↗

Forest Canopy Cover and Height from MISR in Topographically Complex Southwestern US Landscape Assessed with High Quality Reference Data

This study addresses the retrieval of spatially contiguous canopy cover and height estimates in southwestern USforests via inversion of a geometric-optical (GO) model against surface bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) estimates from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Model inversion can provide such maps if good estimates of the background bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) are available. The study area is in the Sierra National Forest in the Sierra Nevada of California. Tree number density, mean crown radius, and fractional cover reference estimates were obtained via analysis of QuickBird 0.6 m spatial resolution panchromatic imagery usingthe CANopy Analysis with Panchromatic Imagery (CANAPI) algorithm, while RH50, RH75 and RH100 (50, 75, and 100 energy return) height data were obtained from the NASA Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS), a full waveform light detection and ranging (lidar) instrument. These canopy parameters were used to drive a modified version of the simple GO model (SGM), accurately reproducing patterns ofMISR 672 nm band surface reflectance (mean RMSE 0.011, mean R2 0.82, N 1048). Cover and height maps were obtained through model inversion against MISR 672 nm reflectance estimates on a 250 m grid.The free parameters were tree number density and mean crown radius. RMSE values with respect to reference data for the cover and height retrievals were 0.05 and 6.65 m, respectively, with of 0.54 and 0.49. MISR can thus provide maps of forest cover and height in areas of topographic variation although refinements are required to improve retrieval precision.

Chopping, Mark↗

Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) Thermal Trade Studies

Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) is being done at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in preparation for the next large aperture UVOIR space observatory. A key science mission of that observatory is the detection and characterization of 'Earth-like' exoplanets. Direct exoplanet observation requires a telescope to see a planet which will be 10(exp -10) times dimmer than its host star. To accomplish this using an internal coronagraph requires a telescope with an ultra-stable wavefront error (WFE). This paper investigates parametric relationships between primary mirror physical parameters and thermal WFE stability. Candidate mirrors are designed as a mesh and placed into a thermal analysis model to determine the temperature distribution in the mirror when it is placed inside of an actively controlled cylindrical shroud at Lagrange point 2. Thermal strains resulting from the temperature distribution are found and an estimation of WFE is found to characterize the effect that thermal inputs have on the optical quality of the mirror. This process is repeated for several mirror material properties, material types, and mirror designs to determine how to design a mirror for thermal stability.

Brooks, Thomas↗

Modeling the Swift BAT Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. (2014) is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of approximately greater than 97% (approximately less than 3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux which has an accuracy of 89:6% (10:4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of eta(sub 0) approximately 0.48(+0.41/-0.23) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) with power-law indices of eta(sub 1) approximately 1.7(+0.6/-0.5) and eta(sub 2) approximately -5.9(+5.7/-0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z(sub 1) approximately 6.8(+2.8/-3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting. The code used in this is analysis is publicly available online.

gamma rays: general↗

Fluid Shifts

Introduction. NASA's Human Research Program is focused on addressing health risks associated with long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but now more than 50 percent of ISS astronauts have experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural findings such as optic disc edema, globe flattening and choroidal folds. These structural and functional changes are referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Development of VIIP symptoms may be related to elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) secondary to spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to determine if a relation exists with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as any VIIP-related effects of those shifts, are predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight status and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations, specifically posture changes and lower body negative pressure. Methods. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, and calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound); (3) vascular dimensions by ultrasound (jugular veins, cerebral and carotid arteries, vertebral arteries and veins, portal vein); (4) vascular dynamics by MRI (head/neck blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility); (5) ocular measures (optical coherence tomography; intraocular pressure; 2-dimensional ultrasound including optic nerve sheath diameter, globe flattening, and retina-choroid thickness; Doppler ultrasound of ophthalmic and retinal arteries and veins); (6) cardiac variables by ultrasound (inferior vena cava, tricuspid flow and tissue Doppler, pulmonic valve, stroke volume, right heart dimensions and function, four-chamber views); and (7) ICP measures (tympanic membrane displacement, otoacoustic emissions). Pre- and post-flight, acute head-down tilt will induce cephalad fluid shifts, whereas lower body negative pressure will oppose these shifts. Controlled Mueller maneuvers will manipulate cardiovascular variables. Through interventions applied before, during, and after flight, we intend to fully evaluate the relationship between fluid shifts and the VIIP syndrome. Discussion. Ten subjects have consented to participate in this experiment, including the recent One-Year Mission crewmembers, who have recently completed R plus180 testing; all other subjects have completed pre-flight testing. Preliminary results from the One-Year Mission crewmembers will be presented, including measures of ocular structure and function, vascular dimensions, fluid distribution, and non-invasive estimates of intracranial pressure.

Stenger, M. B.↗

Enhanced Representation of Soil NO Emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.0.2

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The parameterization considers soil parameters, meteorology, land use, and mineral nitrogen (N) availability to estimate NO emissions. We incorporate daily year-specific fertilizer data from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agricultural model to replace the annual generic data of the initial parameterization, and use a 12km resolution soil biome map over the continental USA. CMAQ modeling for July 2011 shows slight differences in model performance in simulating fine particulate matter and ozone from Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) sites and NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals. We also simulate how the change in soil NO emissions scheme affects the expected O3 response to projected emissions reductions.

remote sensing↗

Modeling the Swift Bat Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift / BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of greater than or equal to 97 percent (less than or equal to 3 percent error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6 percent (10.4 percent error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of n (sub 0) approaching 0.48 (sup plus 0.41) (sub minus 0.23) per cubic gigaparsecs per year with power-law indices of n (sub 1) approaching 1.7 (sup plus 0.6) (sub minus 0.5) and n (sub 2) approaching minus 5.9 (sup plus 5.7) (sub minus 0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z (redshift) (sub 1) approaching 6.8 (sup plus 2.8) (sub minus 3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

gamma-ray burst: general – gamma-rays: general â↗

Validation of SMAP Surface Soil Moisture Products with Core Validation Sites

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has utilized a set of core validation sites as the primary methodology in assessing the soil moisture retrieval algorithm performance. Those sites provide well calibrated in situ soil moisture measurements within SMAP product grid pixels for diverse conditions and locations.The estimation of the average soil moisture within the SMAP product grid pixels based on in situ measurements is more reliable when location specific calibration of the sensors has been performed and there is adequate replication over the spatial domain, with an up-scaling function based on analysis using independent estimates of the soil moisture distribution. SMAP fulfilled these requirements through a collaborative CalVal Partner program.This paper presents the results from 34 candidate core validation sites for the first eleven months of the SMAP mission. As a result of the screening of the sites prior to the availability of SMAP data, out of the 34 candidate sites 18 sites fulfilled all the requirements at one of the resolution scales (at least). The rest of the sites are used as secondary information in algorithm evaluation. The results indicate that the SMAP radiometer-based soil moisture data product meets its expected performance of 0.04 cu m/cu m volumetric soil moisture (unbiased root mean square error); the combined radar-radiometer product is close to its expected performance of 0.04 cu m/cu m, and the radar-based product meets its target accuracy of 0.06 cu m/cu m (the lengths of the combined and radar-based products are truncated to about 10 weeks because of the SMAP radar failure). Upon completing the intensive CalVal phase of the mission the SMAP project will continue to enhance the products in the primary and extended geographic domains, in co-operation with the CalVal Partners, by continuing the comparisons over the existing core validation sites and inclusion of candidate sites that can address shortcomings.

SMAP↗

JWST/MIRI Simulated Imaging: Insights into Obscured Star Formation and AGNs for Distant Galaxies in Deep Surveys

The James Webb Space Telescope MIRI instrument will revolutionize extragalactic astronomy with unprecedentedsensitivity and angular resolution in mid-IR. Here we assess the potential of MIRI photometry to constrain galaxyproperties in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science(CEERS)survey. We derive estimated MIRIfluxes fromthe spectral energy distributions(SEDs)of real sources that fall in a planned MIRI pointing. We also obtain MIRIfluxes for hypothetical active galactic nucleus(AGN)–galaxy mixed models varying the AGN fractionalcontribution to the total IR luminosity(fracAGN). Based on these modelfluxes, we simulate CEERS imaging(3.6 hrexposure)in six bands from F770W to F2100W usingMIRISIMand reduce these data usingJWST PIPELINE.Weperform point-spread-function-matched photometry withTPHOTandfit the source SEDs withX-CIGALE,simultaneously modeling photometric redshift and other physical properties. Adding the MIRI data, the accuracyof both redshift and fracAGNis generally improved by factors of2 for all sources atz3. Notably, for pure-galaxy inputs(fracAGN=0), the accuracy of fracAGNis improved by∼100 times thanks to MIRI. The simulatedCEERS MIRI data are slightly more sensitive to AGN detections than the deepest X-ray survey, based on theempiricalLX–L6μmrelation. Like X-ray observations, MIRI can also be used to constrain the AGN accretionpower(accuracy≈0.3 dex). Our work demonstrates that MIRI will be able to place strong constraints on the mid-IR luminosities from star formation and AGNs and thereby facilitate studies of the galaxy/AGN coevolution.

G Yang↗

LUVOIR-ECLIPS Closed-Loop Adaptive Optics Performance and Contrast Predictions

One of the primary science goals of the Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR) mission concept is to detect and characterize Earth-like exoplanets orbiting nearby stars with direct imaging. The success of its coronagraph instrument ECLIPS (Extreme Coronagraph for Living Planetary Systems) depends on the ability to stabilize the wavefront from a large segmented mirror such that optical path differences are limited to tens of picometers RMS during an exposure time of a few hours. In order to relax the constraints on the mechanical stability, ECLIPS will be equipped with a wavefront sensing and control (WS\&C) architecture to correct wavefront errors up to temporal frequencies $\gtrsim$1 Hz. These errors may be dominated by spacecraft structural dynamics exciting vibrations at the segmented primary mirror. In this work, we present detailed simulations of the WS\&C system within the ECLIPS instrument and the resulting contrast performance. This study assumes wavefront aberrations based on a finite element model of a simulated telescope with spacecraft structural dynamics. Wavefront residuals are then computed according to a model of the adaptive optics system that includes numerical propagation to simulate a realistic wavefront sensor and an analytical model of the temporal performance. An end-to-end numerical propagation model of ECLIPS is then used to estimate the residual starlight intensity distribution at the science detector. We show that the contrast performance depends strongly on the target star magnitude and the spatio-temporal distribution of wavefront errors from the telescope. In cases with significant vibration, we advocate for the use of laser metrology to mitigate high temporal frequency wavefront errors and increase the mission yield.

Sirbu, Dan↗

Tree canopy radiance measurement system

A system is described for obtaining both an estimate of the spatial mean bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) for a tree canopy (displaying a horizontally heterogeneous foliage distribution) and the statistical significance of that estimate. The system includes a manlift supporting a horizontal beam 7 m long on which are mounted four radiometers. These radiometers may be pointed, and radiance data acquired, in any of 11 view directions in the principal plane of the sun. A total of 80 data points, acquired in 3 min, were used to estimate the BRF of a walnut orchard 5 m tall and detect true differences of 12 percent of the mean approximately 90 percent of the time.

Caldwell, William↗

Statistical analysis of direct-strike lightning data (1980 to 1982)

Electromagnetic measurements are being made during direct lightning strikes by NASA Langley Center using a specially instrumented F-106B aircraft. The research is to aid refinement, characterization, and understanding of the lightning-aircraft interaction process and the lightning hazards to aircraft. Statistical methods are applied to characterize some aspects of the lightning data obtained from 176 strikes to the aircraft. Specific attention is given to the problem of estimating the upper extreme quantiles of the distributions of peak-to-peak values for currents and rates of change in the magnetic and flux densities. A formal treatment via a general location-scale family of models allows the estimation method to be adapted to the realized shapes the distributions. The shapes are examined by probability plotting methods.

Lee, L. D.↗

Clumping index estimation with 30°-tilted cameras in row crops: Evaluation of methods and segment size effects

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the spatial distribution of foliage elements and is essential for accurately estimating the plant area index (PAI), canopy radiative transfer, and photosynthesis. Traditionally, the finite-length averaging method (LX), the gap size distribution method (CC), and a combined approach of CC and LX (CLX) have been applied to instruments like TRAC and digital hemispherical photography to estimate CI. However, a comprehensive evaluation of these methods in row crops remains limited, especially regarding the influence of segment size on CI. Meanwhile, digital cameras offer a cost-effective and user-friendly solution for canopy measurements in row crops, yet their application in this context remains underexplored. In this study, we employed a new approach using a 30°-tilted digital camera to estimate CI in corn and soybean fields, applying the LX, CC, and CLX methods. We systematically assessed the performance of these three methods by combining field measurements in real-world fields with simulations using the LESS 3D radiative transfer model. Our results showed that CLX applied to the whole image and 45° segment offered accurate estimation of CI (bias within ±0.1, RMSE < 0.2) and PAI (bias within ±0.4, RMSE < 1) in real-world fields and LESS simulations. The accuracy of the LX method was highly sensitive to segment size, with the best performance observed at the 15° segment (PAI bias within ±0.4). In contrast, the CC method remained stable across different segment sizes, and its performance was generally comparable to that of LX, except at the 15° segment. Across view zenith angles, CI derived from CC generally showed a continuous increase, while those from LX and CLX followed a rising trend at small zenith angles but began to decline at 68°, likely due to an increasing proportion of no-gap segments. Seasonally, LX tended to show decreasing CI during early growth stages but increased as the canopy matured, whereas CC and CLX showed gradually increasing CI before plateauing at peak PAI. The 30°-tilted camera effectively captured CI variations across different angles and growth stages, making it a practical and robust instrument for row crop canopy structure analysis. Furthermore, applying these CI methods to digital cameras offers a low-cost and accessible CI estimation alternative, improving canopy structure monitoring accuracy in row crops.

30°-tilted camera↗

Modification of Eccentric Gaze-Holding

Clear vision and accurate localization of objects in the environment are prerequisites for reliable performance of motor tasks. Space flight confronts the crewmember with a stimulus rearrangement that requires adaptation to function effectively with the new requirements of altered spatial orientation and motor coordination. Adaptation and motor learning driven by the effects of cerebellar disorders may share some of the same demands that face our astronauts. One measure of spatial localization shared by the astronauts and those suffering from cerebellar disorders that is easily quantified, and for which a neurobiological substrate has been identified, is the control of the angle of gaze (the "line of sight"). The disturbances of gaze control that have been documented to occur in astronauts and cosmonauts, both in-flight and postflight, can be directly related to changes in the extrinsic gravitational environment and intrinsic proprioceptive mechanisms thus, lending themselves to description by simple non-linear statistical models. Because of the necessity of developing robust normal response populations and normative populations against which abnormal responses can be evaluated, the basic models can be formulated using normal, non-astronaut test subjects and subsequently extended using centrifugation techniques to alter the gravitational and proprioceptive environment of these subjects. Further tests and extensions of the models can be made by studying abnormalities of gaze control in patients with cerebellar disease. A series of investigations were conducted in which a total of 62 subjects were tested to: (1) Define eccentric gaze-holding parameters in a normative population, and (2) explore the effects of linear acceleration on gaze-holding parameters. For these studies gaze-holding was evaluated with the subjects seated upright (the normative values), rolled 45 degrees to both the left and right, or pitched back 30 and 90 degrees. In a separate study the further effects of acceleration on gaze stability was examined during centrifugation (+2 G (sub x) and +2 G (sub z) using a total of 23 subjects. In all of our investigations eccentric gaze-holding was established by having the subjects acquire an eccentric target (+/-30 degrees horizontal, +/- 15 degrees vertical) that was flashed for 750 msec in an otherwise dark room. Subjects were instructed to hold gaze on the remembered position of the flashed target for 20 sec. Immediately following the 20 sec period, subjects were cued to return to the remembered center position and to hold gaze there for an additional 20 sec. Following this 20 sec period the center target was briefly flashed and the subject made any corrective eye movement back to the true center position. Conventionally, the ability to hold eccentric gaze is estimated by fitting the natural log of centripetal eye drifts by linear regression and calculating the time constant (G) of these slow phases of "gaze-evoked nystagmus". However, because our normative subjects sometimes showed essentially no drift (tau (sub c) = m), statistical estimation and inference on the effect of target direction was performed on values of the decay constant theta = 1/(tau (sub c)) which we found was well modeled by a gamma distribution. Subjects showed substantial variance of their eye drifts, which were centrifugal in approximately 20 % of cases, and > 40% for down gaze. Using the ensuing estimated gamma distributions, we were able to conclude that rightward and leftward gaze holding were not significantly different, but that upward gaze holding was significantly worse than downward (p<0.05). We also concluded that vertical gaze holding was significantly worse than horizontal (p<0.05). In the case of left and right roll, we found that both had a similar improvement to horizontal gaze holding (p<0.05), but didn't have a significant effect on vertical gaze holding. For pitch tilts, both tilt angles significantly decreased gaze-holding ility in all directions (p<0.05). Finally, we found that hyper-g centrifugation significantly decreased gaze holding ability in the vertical plane. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) vertical gaze-holding is less stable than horizontal, (2) gaze-holding to upward targets is less stable than to downward targets, (3) tilt affects gaze holding, and (4) hyper-g affects gaze holding. This difference between horizontal and vertical gaze-holding may be ascribed to separate components of the velocity-to-position neural integrator for eye movements, and to differences in orbital mechanics. The differences between upward and downward gaze-holding may be ascribed to an inherent vertical imbalance in the vestibular system. Because whole body tilt and hyper-g affects gaze-holding, it is implied that the otolith organs have direct connections to the neural integrator and further studies of astronaut gaze-holding are warranted. Our statistical method for representing the range of normal eccentric gaze stability can be readily applied to normals who maybe exposed to environments which may modify the central integrator and require monitoring, and to evaluate patients with gaze-evoked nystagmus by comparing to the above established normative criteria.

Reschke, M. F.↗

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ensuring Solution Uniqueness in Three-Phase Power System State Estimation

This paper is concerned with the issue of potential non-unique solutions in three-phase state estimation. Theory of observability analysis for positive sequence power system state estimation is based on certain assumptions that avoid possibility of multiple solutions. Also, it is shown that observability of a positive sequence network remains independent of the network parameters or the operating state. When extending single-phase observability analysis directly to the three-phase case, this paper considers the possibility of converging to multiple solutions, i.e. solution non-uniqueness, even for cases where state estimator successfully converges. The study illustrates via numerical examples the likelihood of converging to entirely different solutions for certain network parameters. It also examines how the operating state, particularly under unbalanced loading, leads to solution non-uniqueness. The paper then describes an alternative approach to ensure a unique solution in three-phase state estimation. This method aims to accurately and uniquely estimate the state of any unbalanced three-phase system, irrespective of load imbalance, network configuration, existence of synchronous generators or transformers.

Power System State Estimation, Three-Phase, Distri↗