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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Far-ultraviolet emission from the Taurus molecular cloud

Far-ultraviolet spectra of diffuse emission from a region in the Taurus molecular cloud are presented. These data were obtained with the Berkeley spectrometer on NASA's Ultraviolet Experiment (UVX) payload. The intensity of the continuum emission drops as the optical depth increases toward the denser part of the cloud, an effect which is the opposite of that observed for the diffuse flux at high galactic latitudes. At the center of the aperture, the optical depth is very large, and the continuum emission must be produced by backscattering. At the edges of the cloud, the continuum intensity rises by a factor of 2. The data are interpreted with a new radiative transfer model, which is significantly more sophisticated than its predecessors. If the grain scattering properties are constant across the cloud, a unique best-fit combination can be determined from the data. The best-fit albedo is 0.6 +/- 0.1 at 1600 A. The best-fit value for the phase factor g is 0.5 +/- 0.15. The intensity of the flourescence of H2, combined with an upper limit to the column density of atomic hydrogen associated with the cloud, sets a lower limit of about 130/cm to the density in the flourescence region. Our estimate of the flux incident on the cloud at 1000 A is a factor of 2 to 3 lower than the value required to produce the measured flourescence intensity. Most mechanisms which might reconcile the discrepancy reduce the derived albedo and phase factor.

Hurwitz, M.↗

Radio continuum observations of the Herbig Ae/Be stars HD 163296 and HR 5999

Very Large Array (VLA) observations of the two bright Herbig Ae/Be stars HD 163296 and HR 5999 have been carried out at lambda 3.6 and 20 cm. We report the detection of a radio source at lambda 3.6 cm that may be associated with HD 163296. From the peak flux density of 0.39 mJy/beam area, we estimate a mass-loss rate of 1.8 x 10(exp -8) solar mass/yr if the flux is due to free-free emission in an ionized wind with spherical symmetry, assuming a terminal wind velocity of 200 km/s. HR 5999 was not detected at either wavelength. We discuss the results in terms of the stellar-driven and accretion-driven scenarios for line and wind formation in Herbig Ae/Be stars.

Brown, D. A.↗

Urey prize lecture: On the diversity of plausible planetary systems

Models of planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are used to predict the variety of planetary and satellite systems that may be present within our galaxy. A new approximate global criterion for orbital stability of planetary systems based on an extension of the local resonance overlap criterion is proposed. This criterion implies that at least some of Uranus' small inner moons are significantly less massive than predicted by estimates based on Voyager volumes and densities assumed to equal that of Miranda. Simple calculations (neglecting planetary gravity) suggest that giant planets which acrete substantial amounts of gas while their envelopes are extremely distended ultimately rotate rapidly in the prgrade direction.

Lissauer, J. J.↗

Pioneer Venus Data Analysis

Analysis and interpretation of data from the Orbiter Retarding Potential Analyzer (ORPA) onboard the Pioneer Venus Orbiter is reported. By comparing ORPA data to proton data from the Orbiter Plasma Analyzer (OPA), it was found that the ORPA suprathermal electron densities taken outside the Venusian ionopause represent solar wind electron densities, thus allowing the high resolution study of Venus bow shocks using both magnetic field and solar wind electron data. A preliminary analysis of 366 bow shock penetrations was completed using the solar wind electron data as determined from ORPA suprathermal electron densities and temperatures, resulting in an estimate of the extent to which mass loading pickup of O+ (UV ionized O atoms flowing out of the Venus atmosphere) upstream of the Venus obstacle occurred. The pickup of O+ averaged 9.95%, ranging from 0.78% to 23.63%. Detailed results are reported in two attached theses: (1) Comparison of ORPA Suprathermal Electron and OPA Solar Wind Proton Data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and (2) Pioneer Venus Orbiter Retarding Potential Analyzer Observations of the Electron Component of the Solar Wind, and of the Venus Bow Shock and Magnetosheath.

Jones, Douglas E.↗

Thermal Protection Requirements for Near-Earth Aeroassisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle Missions

The thermal protection required for decelerating and maneuvering spacecraft by aerodynamic forces is determined for return missions from geosynchronous to low Earth orbits. The effect of vehicle configuration on surface heating rates and selection of heat shield materials is analyzed. The effects of the current widespread estimates in the structure of atmospheric density are also evaluated. It is shown that nonequilibrium radiation can be a major source of surface heating during atmospheric entry and a significant factor for heat shielding requirements. It is also demonstrated that drag-brake concepts have application to a broad range of orbital transfer missions because of the favorable tradeoffs with aeromaneuvering vehicles in volumetric efficiency, retrothrust plane-change capability, and heat protection requirements. In addition, the results of this study indicate that the aeroassist technique produces acceptable penalties in vehicle payload capacity for drag-brake concepts, because of the system's heat protection requirements, and is highly attractive relative to all-propulsive orbital change maneuvers.

Menees, Gene P.↗

Meteoric Magnesium Ions in the Martian Atmosphere

From a thorough modeling of the altitude profile of meteoritic ionization in the Martian atmosphere we deduce that a persistent layer of magnesium ions should exist around an altitude of 70 km. Based on current estimates of the meteoroid mass flux density, a peak ion density of about 10(exp 4) ions/cm is predicted. Allowing for the uncertainties in all of the model parameters, this value is probably within an order of magnitude of the correct density. Of these parameters, the peak density is most sensitive to the meteoroid mass flux density which directly determines the ablated line density into a source function for Mg. Unlike the terrestrial case, where the metallic ion production is dominated by charge-exchange of the deposited neutral Mg with the ambient ions, Mg+ in the Martian atmosphere is produced predominantly by photoionization. The low ultraviolet absorption of the Martian atmosphere makes Mars an excellent laboratory in which to study meteoric ablation. Resonance lines not seen in the spectra of terrestrial meteors may be visible to a surface observatory in the Martian highlands.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

Toward Creating A Global Retrospective Climatology of Aerosol Properties

Tropospheric aerosols are thought to cause a significant direct and indirect climate forcing, but the magnitude of this forcing remains highly uncertain because of poor knowledge of global aerosol characteristics and their temporal changes. The standard long-term global product, the one-channel Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol optical thickness over the ocean, relies on a single predefined aerosol model and can be inaccurate in many cases. Furthermore, it provides no information on aerosol column number density, thus making it impossible to estimate the indirect aerosol effect on climate. Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data can be used to detect absorbing aerosols over land, but are insensitive to aerosols located below one kilometer. It is thus clear that innovative approaches must be employed in order to extract a more quantitative and accurate aerosol climatology from available satellite and other measurements, thus enabling more reliable estimates of the direct and indirect aerosol forcings. The Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP) was established in 1998 as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). Its main objective is to analyze satellite radiance measurements and field observations to infer the global distribution of aerosols, their properties, and their seasonal and interannual variations. The overall goal is to develop advanced global aerosol climatologies for the period of satellite data and to make the aerosol climatologies broadly available through the GACP web site.

Curran, Robert J.↗

Use of IRI to Model the Effect of Ionosphere Emission on Earth Remote Sensing at L-Band

Microwave remote sensing in the window at 1.413 GHz (L-band) set aside for passive use only is important for monitoring sea surface salinity and soil moisture. These parameters are important for understanding ocean dynamics and energy exchange between the surface and atmosphere, and both NASA and ESA plan to launch satellite sensors to monitor these parameters at L-band (Aquarius, Hydros and SMOS). The ionosphere is an important source of error for passive remote sensing at this frequency. In addition to Faraday rotation, emission from the ionosphere is also a potential source of error at L-band. As an aid for correcting for emission, a regression model is presented that relates ionosphere emission to the integrated electron density (TEC). The goal is to use TEC from sources such as TOPEX, JASON or GPS to obtain estimates of emission over the oceans where the electron density profiles needed to compute emission are not available. In addition, data will also be presented to evaluate the use of the IRI for computing emission over the ocean.

Abraham, Saji↗

Discovering Planetary Nebula Geometries: Explorations with a Hierarchy of Models

Astronomical objects known as planetary nebulae (PNe) consist of a shell of gas expelled by an aging medium-sized star as it makes its transition from a red giant to a white dwarf. In many cases this gas shell can be approximately described as a prolate ellipsoid. Knowledge of the physics of ionization processes in this gaseous shell enables us to construct a model in three dimensions (3D) called the Ionization-Bounded Prolate Ellipsoidal Shell model (IBPES model). Using this model we can generate synthetic nebular images, which can be used in conjunction with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of actual PNe to perform Bayesian model estimation. Since the IBPES model is characterized by thirteen parameters, model estimation requires the search of a 13-dimensional parameter space. The 'curse of dimensionality,' compounded by a computationally intense forward problem, makes forward searches extremely time-consuming and frequently causes them to become trapped in local solutions. We find that both the speed and of the search can be improved by judiciously reducing the dimensionality of the search space. Our basic approach employs a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity that converges to the IBPES model. Earlier studies establish that a hierarchical sequence converges more quickly, and to a better solution, than a search relying only on the most complex model. Here we report results for a hierarchy of five models. The first three models treat the nebula as a 2D image, while the last two models explore its characteristics as a 3D object and enable us to characterize the physics of the nebula. This five-model hierarchy is applied to HST images of ellipsoidal PNe to estimate their geometric properties and gas density profiles.

Huyser, Karen A.↗

Data Mining Activity for Bone Discipline: Calculating a Factor of Risk for Hip Fracture in Long-Duration Astronauts

The factor-of-risk (Phi), defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength, is a biomechanical approach to hip fracture risk assessment that may be used to identify subjects who are at increased risk for fracture. The purpose of this project was to calculate the factor of risk in long duration astronauts after return from a mission on the International Space Station (ISS), which is typically 6 months in duration. The load applied to the hip was calculated for a sideways fall from standing height based on the individual height and weight of the astronauts. The soft tissue thickness overlying the greater trochanter was measured from the DXA whole body scans and used to estimate attenuation of the impact force provided by soft tissues overlying the hip. Femoral strength was estimated from femoral areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which were performed between 5-32 days of landing. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expedition 1 to 18 were included in this study, where repeat flyers were treated as separate subjects. Male astronauts (n=20) had a significantly higher factor of risk for hip fracture Phi than females (n=5), with preflight values of 0.83+/-0.11 and 0.36+/-0.07, respectively, but there was no significant difference between preflight and postflight Phi (Figure 1). Femoral aBMD measurements were not found to be significantly different between men and women. Three men and no women exceeded the theoretical fracture threshold of Phi=1 immediately postflight, indicating that they would likely suffer a hip fracture if they were to experience a sideways fall with impact to the greater trochanter. These data suggest that male astronauts may be at greater risk for hip fracture than women following spaceflight, primarily due to relatively less soft tissue thickness and subsequently greater impact force.

Ellman, R.↗

FETs Based on Doped Polyaniline/Polyethylene Oxide Fibers

A family of experimental highly miniaturized field-effect transistors (FETs) is based on exploitation of the electrical properties of nanofibers of polyaniline/ polyethylene oxide (PANi/PEO) doped with camphorsulfonic acid. These polymer-based FETs have the potential for becoming building blocks of relatively inexpensive, low-voltage, highspeed logic circuits that could supplant complementary metal oxide/semiconductor (CMOS) logic circuits. The development of these polymerbased FETs offers advantages over the competing development of FETs based on carbon nanotubes. Whereas it is difficult to control the molecular structures and, hence, the electrical properties of carbon nanotubes, it is easy to tailor the electrical properties of these polymerbased FETs, throughout the range from insulating through semiconducting to metallic, through choices of doping levels and chemical manipulation of polymer side chains. A further advantage of doped PANi/PEO nanofibers is that they can be made to draw very small currents and operate at low voltage levels, and thus are promising for applications in which there are requirements to use many FETs to obtain large computational capabilities while minimizing power demands. Fabrication of an experimental FET in this family begins with the preparation of a substrate as follows: A layer of silicon dioxide between 50 and 200 nm thick is deposited on a highly doped (resistivity 0.01 W.cm) silicon substrate, then gold electrodes/contact stripes are deposited on the oxide. Next, one or more fibers of camphorsulphonic acid-doped PANi/PEO having diameters of the order of 100 nm are electrospun onto the substrate so as to span the gap between the gold electrodes (see Figure 1). Figure 2 depicts measured current-versus-voltage characteristics of the device of Figure 1, showing that saturation channel currents occur at source-todrain potentials that are surprisingly low, relative to those of CMOS FETs. The hole mobility in the depletion regime in this transistor was found to be 1.4 10(exp -4) sq cm/(V.s), while the one-dimensional charge density at zero gate bias was estimated to be approximately one hole per 50 two-ring repeat units of polyaniline, consistent with the rather high channel conductivity (approx. 10(exp -3) S/cm). Reducing or eliminating the PEO content of the fibers is expected to enhance the properties of future versions of this transistor.

Theofylaktos, Noulie↗

Distributed Disdrometer and Rain Gauge Measurement Infrastructure Developed for GPM Ground Validation

Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)retrieval algorithm validation requires datasets characterizing the 4-D structure, variability, and correlation properties of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSD) and accumulations over satellite fields of view (FOV;<10 km). Collection of this data provides a means to assess retrieval errors related to beam filling and algorithm PSD assumptions. Hence, GPM Ground Validation is developing a deployable network of precipitation gauges and disdrometers to provide fine-scale measurements of PSD and precipitation accumulation variability. These observations will be combined with dual-frequency, polarimetric, and profiling radar data in a bootstrapping fashion to extend validated PSD measurements to a large coverage domain. Accordingly, a total of 24 Parsivel disdrometers(PD), 5 3rd-generation 2D Video Disdrometers (2DVD), 70 tipping bucket rain gauges (TBRG),9 weighing gauges, 7 Hot-Plate precipitation sensors (HP), and 3 Micro Rain Radars (MRR) have been procured. In liquid precipitation the suite of TBRG, PD and 2DVD instruments will quantify a broad spectrum of rain rate and PSD variability at sub-kilometer scales. In the envisioned network configuration 5 2DVDs will act as reference points for 16 collocated PD and TBRG measurements. We find that PD measurements provide similar measures of the rain PSD as observed with collocated 2DVDs (e.g., D0, Nw) for rain rates less than 15 mm/hr. For heavier rain rates we will rely on 2DVDs for PSD information. For snowfall we will combine point-redundant observations of SWER distributed over three or more locations within a FOV. Each location will contain at least one fenced weighing gauge, one HP, two PDs, and a 2DVD. MRRs will also be located at each site to extend the measurement to the column. By collecting SWER measurements using different instrument types that employ different measurement techniques our objective is to separate measurement uncertainty from natural variability in SWER and PSD. As demonstrated using C3VP polarimetric radar, gauge, and 2DVD/PD datasets these measurements can be combined to bootstrap an area wide SWER estimate via constrained modification of density-diameter and radar reflectivity-snowfall relationships. These data will be combined with snowpack, airborne microphysics, radar, radiometer, and tropospheric sounding data to refine GPM snowfall retrievals. The gauge and disdrometer instruments are being developed to operate autonomously when necessary using solar power and wireless communications. These systems will be deployed in numerous field campaigns through 2016. Planned deployment of these systems include field campaigns in Finland (2010), Oklahoma (2011), Canada (2012) and North Carolina (2013). GPM will also deploy 20 pairs of TBRGs within a 25 km2 region along the Virginia coast under NASA NPOL radar coverage in order to quantify errors in point-area rainfall measurements.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Emission Lines from the Gas Disk Around TW Hydra and the Origin of the Inner Hole

We compare line emission calculated from theoretical disk models with optical to submillimeter wavelength observational data of the gas disk surrounding TW Hya and infer the spatial distribution of mass in the gas disk. The model disk that best matches observations has a gas mass ranging from approx.10(exp −4) to 10(exp −5) M for 0.06AU < r < 3.5 AU and approx. 0.06M for 3.5AU < r < 200 AU. We find that the inner dust hole (r < 3.5 AU) in the disk must be depleted of gas by approx. 1-2 orders of magnitude compared with the extrapolated surface density distribution of the outer disk. Grain growth alone is therefore not a viable explanation for the dust hole. CO vibrational emission arises within r approx. 0.5 AU from thermal excitation of gas. [O i] 6300Å and 5577Å forbidden lines and OH mid-infrared emission are mainly due to prompt emission following UV photodissociation of OH and water at r < or approx. 0.1 AU and at r approx. 4 AU. [Ne ii] emission is consistent with an origin in X-ray heated neutral gas at r < or approx. 10 AU, and may not require the presence of a significant extreme-ultraviolet (hν > 13.6 eV) flux from TW Hya. H2 pure rotational line emission comes primarily from r approx. 1 to 30 AU. [Oi] 63microns, HCO+, and CO pure rotational lines all arise from the outer disk at r approx. 30-120 AU. We discuss planet formation and photoevaporation as causes for the decrease in surface density of gas and dust inside 4 AU. If a planet is present, our results suggest a planet mass approx. 4-7MJ situated at ∼3 AU. Using our photoevaporation models and the best surface density profile match to observations, we estimate a current photoevaporative mass loss rate of 4x10(exp −9M)/yr and a remaining disk lifetime of approx.5 million years.

Planet-Disk interactions↗

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗

Overview and Evaluation of a Computational Bone Physiology Modeling Toolchain and Its Application to Testing of Exercise Countermeasures

Prolonged microgravity exposure disrupts natural bone remodeling processes and can lead to a significant loss of bone strength, increasing injury risk during missions and placing astronauts at a greater risk of bone fracture later in life. Resistance-based exercise during missions is used to combat bone loss, but current exercise countermeasures do not completely mitigate the effects of microgravity. To address this concern, we present work to develop a personalizable, site-specific computational modeling toolchain of bone remodeling dynamics to understand and estimate changes in volumetric bone mineral density (BMD) in response to microgravity-induced bone unloading and in-flight exercise. The toolchain is evaluated against data collected from subjects in a 70-day bed rest study and is found to provide insight into the amount of exercise stimulus needed to minimize bone loss, quantitatively predicting post-study volumetric BMD of control subjects who did not perform exercise, and qualitatively predicting the effects of exercise. Results suggest that, with additional data, the toolchain could be improved to aid in developing customized in-flight exercise regimens and predict exercise effectiveness.

Schepelmann, Alexander↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF ( Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) V4 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by the satellite at approximately 1 centimeter) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3 meters). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from the GMAO S2S reanalyses that assimilates/withholds along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the overestimated 2014 El Nino, the big 2015 El Nino, and the minor 2016 La Nina. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrades the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction.

Hackert, E.↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO Seasonal Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite) V4.1 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by satellite at approximately 1-centimeter depth) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3-meters depth). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from GMAO S2S spring reanalyses that assimilate/withhold along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the big 2015 El Nino, the 2017 La Nina and the 2018 weak El Nino. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrade the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of gridded satellite sea surface salinity observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino.

Hackert, E.↗

Overview and Evaluation of a Computational Bone Physiology Modeling Toolchain and Its Application to Testing of Exercise Countermeasures

Prolonged microgravity exposure disrupts natural bone remodeling processes and can lead to a significant loss of bone strength, increasing injury risk during missions and placing astronauts at a greater risk of bone fracture later in life. Resistance-based exercise during missions is used to combat bone loss, but current exercise countermeasures do not completely mitigate the effects of microgravity. To address this concern, we present work to develop a personalizable, site-specific computational modeling toolchain of bone remodeling dynamics to understand and estimate changes in volumetric bone mineral density (BMD) in response to microgravity-induced bone unloading and in-flight exercise. The toolchain is evaluated against data collected from subjects in a 70-day bedrest study and is found to provide insight into the amount of exercise stimulus needed to minimize bone loss, quantitatively predicting post-study volumetric BMD of control subjects who did not perform exercise, and qualitatively predicting the effects of exercise. Results suggest that, with additional data, the toolchain could be improved to aid in developing customized in-flight exercise regimens and predict exercise effectiveness.

Schepelmann, Alexander↗