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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerated, scalable and reproducible AI-driven gravitational wave detection

The development of reusable artificial intelligence (AI) models for wider use and rigorous validation by the community promises to unlock new opportunities in multi-messenger astrophysics. Here we develop a workflow that connects the Data and Learning Hub for Science, a repository for publishing AI models, with the Hardware-Accelerated Learning (HAL) cluster, using funcX as a universal distributed computing service. Using this workflow, an ensemble of four openly available AI models can be run on HAL to process an entire month's worth (August 2017) of advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory data in just seven minutes, identifying all four binary black hole mergers previously identified in this dataset and reporting no misclassifications. This approach combines advances in AI, distributed computing and scientific data infrastructure to open new pathways to conduct reproducible, accelerated, data-driven discovery. By combining a repository for artificial intelligence models and a supercomputing cluster, an entire month's worth of advanced LIGO data is analysed in just 7 min, finding all binary black hole mergers previously identified in this dataset and reporting no misclassifications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large language model-driven database for thermoelectric materials

Thermoelectric materials have the ability to convert waste heat into electricity, offering a valuable solution for energy harvesting. However, their widespread use is hindered by low conversion efficiency, the reliance on expensive rare earth elements, and the environmental and regulatory concerns associated with lead-based materials. A fast and cost-effective way to identify highly efficient thermoelectric materials is through data-driven methods. These approaches rely on robust and comprehensive datasets to train models. Although there are several databases on thermoelectric materials, there is still a need to collect and integrate experimental data from peer-reviewed research articles to capture diverse compositions and properties of materials. Here, in this work, we developed a comprehensive database of 7,123 thermoelectric compounds, containing key information such as chemical composition, structural detail, seebeck coefficient, electrical and thermal conductivity, power factor, and figure of merit (ZT). We used the GPTArticleExtractor workflow, powered by large language models (LLM), to extract and curate data automatically from the scientific literature published in Elsevier journals. This process enabled the creation of a structured database that addresses the challenges of manual data collection. The open access database could stimulate data-driven research and advance thermoelectric material analysis and discovery.

Database↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Foundation Models for the Electric Power Grid

Foundation models (FMs) currently dominate news headlines. They employ advanced deep learning architectures to extract structural information autonomously from vast datasets through self-supervision. The resulting rich representations of complex systems and dynamics can be applied to many downstream applications. Therefore, advances in FMs can find uses in electric power grids, challenged by the energy transition and climate change. This paper calls for the development of FMs for electric grids. We highlight their strengths and weaknesses amidst the challenges of a changing grid. It is argued that FMs learning from diverse grid data and topologies, which we call grid foundation models (GridFMs), could unlock transformative capabilities, pioneering a new approach to leveraging AI to redefine how we manage complexity and uncertainty in the electric grid. Finally, we discuss a practical implementation pathway and road map of a GridFM-v0, a first GridFM for power flow applications based on graph neural networks, and explore how various downstream use cases will benefit from this model and future GridFMs.

AI-based power flow simulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Climate Patterns Using Clustering Autoencoder Techniques

Abstract The complexity of growing spatiotemporal resolution of climate simulations produces a variety of climate patterns under different projection scenarios. This paper proposes a new data-driven climate classification workflow via an unsupervised deep learning technique that can dimensionally reduce the vast volume of spatiotemporal numerical climate projection data into a compact representation. We aim to identify distinct zones that capture multiple climate variables as well as their future changes under different climate change scenarios. Our approach leverages convolutional autoencoders combined with k -means clustering (standard autoencoder) and online clustering based on the Sinkhorn–Knopp algorithm (clustering autoencoder) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to capture unique climate patterns in a data-driven fashion from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with GOLD component (GFDL-ESM2G). The developed approach compresses 70 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation at 0.125° spatial resolution across the CONUS under multiple warming scenarios to a lower-dimensional space by a factor of 660 000 and then tested on 150 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation data. The results show that five climate clusters capture physically reasonable and spatially stable climatological patterns matched to known climate classes defined by human experts. Results also show that using a clustering autoencoder can reduce the computational time for clustering by up to 9.2 times when compared to using a standard autoencoder. Our five unique climate patterns resulting from the deep learning–based clustering of the lower-dimensional space thereby enable us to provide insights on hydrometeorology and its spatial heterogeneity across the conterminous United States immediately without downloading large climate datasets. Significance Statement This paper presents a data-driven climate classification approach using unsupervised deep learning to dimensionally reduce climate model outputs and to identify distinct climate regions for their future changes. Our approach compresses climate information for 70 years of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model data across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at 0.125° spatial resolution. The results reveal that five climate clusters capture reasonable and stable climatological patterns matched to known climate patterns. The embedded clustering process in deep learning provides ×9.2 times faster execution than the k -means clustering technique. These results give us insight about climate spatial patterns and heterogeneity of hydrological patterns across the conterminous United States without downloading large climate datasets.

Kurihana, Takuya↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Active Learning for Scanning Probe Microscopy: From Gaussian Processes to Hypothesis Learning

Recent progress in machine learning methods and the emerging availability of programmable interfaces for scanning probe microscopes (SPMs) have propelled automated and autonomous microscopies to the forefront of attention of the scientific community. However, enabling automated microscopy requires the development of task-specific machine learning methods, understanding the interplay between physics discovery and machine learning, and fully defined discovery workflows. This, in turn, requires balancing the physical intuition and prior knowledge of the domain scientist with rewards that define experimental goals and machine learning algorithms that can translate these to specific experimental protocols. Here, we discuss the basic principles of Bayesian active learning and illustrate its applications for SPM. We progress from the Gaussian process as a simple data-driven method and Bayesian inference for physical models as an extension of physics-based functional fits to more complex deep kernel learning methods, structured Gaussian processes, and hypothesis learning. These frameworks allow for the use of prior data, the discovery of specific functionalities as encoded in spectral data, and exploration of physical laws manifesting during the experiment. Here, the discussed framework can be universally applied to all techniques combining imaging and spectroscopy, SPM methods, nanoindentation, electron microscopy and spectroscopy, and chemical imaging methods and can be particularly impactful for destructive or irreversible measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Security Assessment of Power Grids Based on Machine Learning Approach: Preprint

Data-driven security assessment provides key indicators on power system stability using simulations on scheduling models, as opposed to dynamic simulations that are more time-consuming. This paper investigates data-driven security assessment of power grids based on machine learning. Multivariate random forest regression is used as the machine learning algorithm due to its high robustness to the input data. Three stability issues are analyzed using the proposed machine learning tool, including transient stability, frequency stability and small signal stability. The estimation values from machine learning tool are compared with those from dynamic simulations. Results show that the proposed machine learning tool can effectively predict the stability margins for the three stability metrics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Development and Analysis of a High-Fidelity Neutron Transport Sensor: The Quadrupole Detector Concept for Measurement of the Neutron Flux Gradient

Accurate reconstruction of the neutron flux distribution within a reactor core is essential for safe and efficient reactor operation. Traditional power shape synthesis in Light Water Reactors relies on hundreds of in-core detectors. However, this approach becomes impractical for Advanced Reactors and Microreactors due to limited space and harsh environments. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven methodology that combines high-fidelity modeling with real-time ex-core sensor measurements, enabling the reconstruction of core power distribution while minimizing the reliance on intrusive in-core instrumentation. This project began in FY24 and achieved two initial milestones: (1) the definition of a three-year development plan for a Digital Twin framework and (2) the development of high-fidelity neutronics models of the Purdue University Reactor One (PUR-1) using both MCNP6 and OpenMC. The PUR-1 reactor, a zero-power facility, was selected due to its suitability for neutronics-focused modeling and the availability of experimental data for validation. Both models were benchmarked using neutron flux measurements obtained from irradiated gold foils, which were strategically placed within the core during a dedicated campaign in July 2024. This report marks the continuation and completion of those foundational tasks. The OpenMC model has been refined (improved geometric accuracy, expanded cross-section libraries, and refined sampling) and validated using additional experimental data. An updated sensor design—based on quadrupole configuration—was designed to measure both ex-core flux and its spatial gradient. These measurements will serve as inputs to a neural network-based reconstruction algorithm. Finally, the methodology was demonstrated on a two-dimensional test case representative of the heterogeneous material composition of the PUR-1 reactor core. A neural network implementation of the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral equation was employed to solve the boundary value problem using peripheral sensor measurements. The preliminary results confirm the strong potential of the proposed approach for accurate and minimally invasive neutron flux reconstruction.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliable extrapolation of deep neural operators informed by physics or sparse observations

Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO 2 Sink and CH 4 and N 2 O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods

Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO 2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: -29 (-709, 455), top-down: -587 (-862, -312) Tg CO 2 -C yr -1 ) and sources of CH 4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH 4 -C y -1 ) and N 2 O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N 2 O-N yr -1 ). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH 4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO 2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO 2 emissions as well as CH 4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N 2 O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH 4 and N 2 O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for electroweak-scale dijet resonances using trigger-level analysis with the ATLAS detector in 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV

This article reports on a search for dijet resonances using 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collision data recorded at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is performed solely on jets reconstructed within the ATLAS trigger to overcome bandwidth limitations imposed on conventional single-jet triggers, which would otherwise reject data from decays of sub-TeV dijet resonances. Collision events with two jets satisfying transverse momentum thresholds of 𝑝 T ≥ 85 GeV and jet rapidity separation of |𝑦*| <0.6 are analysed for dijet resonances with invariant masses from 375 to 1800 GeV. A data-driven background estimate is used to model the dijet mass distribution from multijet processes. No significant excess above the expected background is observed. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on coupling values for a benchmark leptophobic axial-vector 𝑍′ model and on the production cross section for a new resonance contributing a Gaussian-distributed line-shape to the dijet mass distribution.

hadron colliders↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online Dynamic Mode Decomposition Based System Identification of Multi-Zone Building HVAC Systems

Many works have recently been conducted to reduce the electricity consumption of smart buildings and allow them to support various grid services. Most of these works require accurate system models for the various appliances in the building including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) units. In this paper, we investigate a recursive data-driven system identification strategy to construct the thermal model for a time-varying building with a multi-zone HVAC unit. The online dynamic mode decomposition (DMD)-based strategy is employed to identify the multi-zone thermal building dynamics, where a simple information update (rank-1) is selected to avoid computational complexity. The DMD-based identification strategy is validated using a real gymnasium building equipped with a 4-zone HVAC unit, and its performance is compared with that of the traditional nuclear-norm subspace identification (N2SID) strategy.

Wu, Tumin [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Vehicles to Systems: Understanding Freight Transportation as a Connected Energy, Infrastructure, and Operations System

The U.S. freight system may need to handle 50% more cargo by 2050. Upgrading our freight system requires modernizing capital-intensive, long-lived assets including freight trains, ports, and terminal infrastructure. NLR is advancing freight system solutions spanning ALTRIOS, the first digital twin for the full freight rail system; ALTRIOS-LIFTS, which can create digital twins of freight terminals; INFORMES, the first national model of the intermodal freight system; MARINESim, used to simulate and optimize ocean-going vessel operations; and more. These modeling and simulation tools enable data-driven decision-making across freight modes and systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗