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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

A WRF-Chem Analysis of Flash Rates, Lightning-NOx Production and Subsequent Trace Gas Chemistry of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). This is a continuation of previous work, which compared lightning observations (Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array and National Lightning Detection Network) with flashes generated by various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) from the literature in a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm. Based on the Oklahoma radar observations and Lightning Mapping Array data, new FRPSs are being generated and incorporated into the model. The focus of this analysis is on estimating the amount of lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) produced per flash in this storm through a series of model simulations using different production per flash assumptions and comparisons with DC3 aircraft anvil observations. The result of this analysis will be compared with previously studied mid-latitude storms. Additional model simulations are conducted to investigate the upper troposphere transport, distribution, and chemistry of the LNOx plume during the 24 hours following the convective event to investigate ozone production. These model-simulated mixing ratios are compared against the aircraft observations made on 30 May over the southern Appalachians.

Cummings, Kristin A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin↗
NASA NTRS2001

Airborne spectral Measurements of Surface-Atmosphere Anisotropy for Several Surfaces and Ecosystem over Southern Africa

The Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) was flown aboard the University of Washington Convair CV-580 research aircraft and took measurements on 23 flights between August 15 and September 16. On 12 of those flights, BRF measurements were obtained over different natural surfaces and ecosystem in southern Africa. The BRF measurements were done to characterize surface anisotropy in support of SAFARI 2000 science objectives principally to validate products from NASA's EOS satellites, and to parameterize and validate BRF models. In this paper we present results of BRFs taken over two EOS validation sites: Skukuza tower, South Africa (25.0 deg S, 31.5 deg E) and Mongu tower, Zambia (15.4 deg S, 23.3 deg E). Additional sites are also considered and include, Maun tower, Botswana (20.0 deg S, 23.5 deg E), Sowa Pan, Botswana (20.6 deg S, 26.2 deg E) and Etosha Pan, Namibia (19.0 deg S, 16.0 deg E). The CAR is capable of measuring scattered light in fourteen spectral bands. The scan mirror, rotating at 100 rpm, directs the light into a Dall-Kirkham telescope where the beam is split into nine paths. Eight light beams pass through beam splitters, dichroics, and lenses to individual detectors (0.34-1.27 micrometers), and finally are registered by eight data channels. They are sampled simultaneously and continuously. The ninth beam passes through a spinning filter wheel to an InSb detector cooled by a Stirling cycle cooler. Signals registered by the ninth data channel are selected from among six spectral channels (1.55-2.30 micrometers). The filter wheel can either cycle through all six spectral bands at a prescribed interval (usually changing filter every fifth scan line), or lock onto any one of the six spectral bands and sample it continuously. To measure the BRF of the surface-atmosphere system, the University of Washington CV-580 had to bank at a comfortable roll angle of approximately 20 degrees and fly in a circle about 3 km in diameter above the surface for roughly two minutes. Replicated observations (multiple circular orbits) were acquired over selected surfaces so that average BRF smooth out small-scale surface and atmospheric inhomogeneities. At an altitude of 600 m above the targeted surface area and with a 1 deg IFOV, the pixel resolution is about 10 m at nadir and about 270 m at an 80 deg viewing angle from the CAR.

Gatebe, Charles K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Lee, M.-I.↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Simulations With High Vertical Resolution in the Lower Troposphere

Abstract General circulation models (GCMs) are typically run with coarse vertical resolution. For example, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) has a vertical resolution of about 200 m in the boundary layer, which is far too coarse to resolve sharp gradients often found in the thermodynamic fields capping subtropical marine stratocumulus. In this article, we present a series of multiyear atmosphere only simulations of E3SM version 1 where we progressively increase the vertical resolution in the lower troposphere to scales approaching those often used in large eddy simulation (LES). We report marginal impacts in regards to the simulation of boundary layer clouds when vertical resolution is moderately increased, yet find significant positive impacts when the vertical resolution approaches that typically used in LES (∼10 m). In these experiments, there is a marked change in the simulated turbulence and thermodynamics which leads to more abundant marine stratocumulus. However, these simulations are burdened with excessive computational cost. They are also subject to degradations in overall climate metrics due to time step sensitivities and because some processes and parameterizations are sensitive to changes in the vertical resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A physics-based ensemble machine-learning approach to identifying a relationship between lightning indices and binary lightning hazard

To convert lightning indices generated by numerical weather prediction experiments into binary lightning hazard, a machine-learning tool was developed. This tool, consisting of parallel multilayer perceptron classifiers, was trained on an ensemble of planetary boundary layer schemes and microphysics parameterizations that generated four different lightning indices over 1 week. In a subsequent week, the multi-physics ensemble was applied and the machine-learning tool was used to evaluate the accuracy. Unintuitively, the machine-learning tool performed better on the testing dataset than the training dataset. Much of the error may be attributed to mischaracterizing the convection. The combination of the machine learning model and simulations could not differentiate between cloud-to-cloud lightning and cloud-to-ground lightning, despite being trained on cloud-to-ground lightning. It was found that the simulation most representative of the local operational model was the most accurate simulation tested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Lightning NOx Statistics Derived by NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) Data Analyses

What is the LNOM? The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) [Koshak et al., 2009, 2010, 2011; Koshak and Peterson 2011, 2013] analyzes VHF Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) data to estimate the lightning nitrogen oxides (LNOx) produced by individual flashes. Figure 1 provides an overview of LNOM functionality. Benefits of LNOM: (1) Does away with unrealistic "vertical stick" lightning channel models for estimating LNOx; (2) Uses ground-based VHF data that maps out the true channel in space and time to < 100 m accuracy; (3) Therefore, true channel segment height (ambient air density) is used to compute LNOx; (4) True channel length is used! (typically tens of kilometers since channel has many branches and "wiggles"); (5) Distinction between ground and cloud flashes are made; (6) For ground flashes, actual peak current from NLDN used to compute NOx from lightning return stroke; (7) NOx computed for several other lightning discharge processes (based on Cooray et al., 2009 theory): (a) Hot core of stepped leaders and dart leaders, (b) Corona sheath of stepped leader, (c) K-change, (d) Continuing Currents, and (e) M-components; and (8) LNOM statistics (see later) can be used to parameterize LNOx production for regional air quality models (like CMAQ), and for global chemical transport models (like GEOS-Chem).

Koshak, William↗
NASA NTRS1985

The utilization of satellite data and dynamics in understanding and predicting global weather phenomena

A two layer spectral quasi-geostrophic model is used to simulate the effects of topography on the equilibria, the stability, and the long term evaluation of incipient unstable waves. The flow is forced by latitudinally dependent radiational heating. The nature of the form drag instability of high index equilibria is investigated. The proximity of the equilibrium shear to a resonant value is essential for the instability, provided the equilibrium occurs at a slightly stronger shear than resonance. The properties of the steady Hadley and Rossby required for a thermally forced rotating fluid on a sphere are further explained. An objective parameterization technique is developed for general nonlinear hydrodynamical systems. The typical structure is one in which the rates of change of the dependent variables depend on homogeneous quadratic and linear forms, as well as on inhomogeneous forcing terms. Also documented is a steady, axisymmetric model of the general circulation developed as a basis for climate stability studies. The model includes the effects of heating, rotation, and internal friction, but neglects topography. Included is further research on cloud street phenomena. Orientation angles and horizontal wavelengths of boundary layer rolls and cloud streets are determined from an analysis of a truncated spectral model of three dimensional shallow moist Boussinesq convection in a shearing environment is further explained. Relatively broadly spaced roll clouds have orientations for which the Fourier component of the roll perpendicular shear is nearly zero, but the second corresponds to narrowly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier coefficients of both the perpendicular and the parallel components of the shear are nearly equal.

Shirer, H. N.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland ice sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland ice sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meterological data sets. Data analysis showed the following results: (1)cloud classification based on longwave sky radiation revealed that overcast sky occurred for 25% of the time in winter, and for 15% in spring and summer respectively (winter and summer both show the same occurrence of clear sky of approximately 26%); (2) comparison of aerodynamic profile method with eddy correlation method to derive sensible and latent heat flux showed good agreement in the diurnal cycle and the turbulent fluxes were underestimated with the aerodynamic method by 10 - 30% as compared to the in situ eddy flux method; (3) the katabatic wind shows a distinct diurnal cycle with a maximum in the morning (7-9 h solar time) and a minimum in the later afternoon (18 h solar time); (4) snow grain size was modeled with a surface energy balance model (SNTHERM) and compared with in situ measurements. Sharp decreases in the modeled snow grain size, caused by accumulation events such as precipitation and deposition, could be verified with observational data; (4) radiative transfer modeling of firn supports our beliefs that the observed trends in 18 and 19 GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures are attributable to accumulation rate changes (modeling also indicates the above relationship is detectable because of the presence of depth hoar; (5) snow melt can be detected by a distinct signal in the passive microwave cross-polarized gradient ratio (19h-37v)/(19h+37v) and has been used for wet/dry snow classification; (6) top of the atmosphere (TOA) broadband albedos were derived from AVHRR visible and near infrared reflectances for the entire ice sheet from May 1990 - June 1991, and the highest albedo values are found along the southeast coast of the ice sheet which is consistent with the summer peak of precipitation due to onshore flow loaded with high water vapor content (TOA albedo values dropped to around 40% along the south-western coast during July and August due to bare ice surfaces); and (7) the net all-wave radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is negative over the entire ice sheet except for the summer months - June-July-August (in June, the net radiation balance is slightly positive over the dry snow areas--15 W/m2).

Steffen, K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Successes, Problems and Prospects

After two decades of active research, a much better understanding of the broader role of biospheric processes on the local climate has emerged. A surface-albedo increase, particularly in desert border regions of the subtropics (as well as the deforested tropical regions), leads to a net surface energy deficit, which in turn leads to a relative sinking and reduced rainfall. On the other hand, studies of the influence of altered ratios of evapotranspiration and sensible fluxes, in situations where the net solar income is unchanged, show that evapotranspiration is a more desirable flux for increased precipitation and vitality of the biosphere. Besides providing water vapor and convective available potential energy (CAPE) to the lower troposphere, evapotranspiration helps in building larger CAPE before "turning on" the moist-convection. Larger CAPE in the lower troposphere enables convection to reach into the deeper atmosphere thereby heating the upper troposphere; indeed, moist-convection is also accompanied by the evaporation of falling precipitation that cools and moistens the lower atmosphere. While convective, as opposed to stratiform, precipitation reduces the fractional cloud cover; it also allows more solar radiation to reach the surface thereby invigorating surface fluxes. These, together with moist convection and associated downdrafts help to maintain the characteristic upper temperature limit(s) of the moist-land as well as oceanic regions. Regardless of the above understanding, several important problems continue to hinder the accurate simulation of a realistic land atmosphere interaction in a numerical model (both GCM and/or Meso-scale models). Among the unsolved problems are parameterization of sub-grid scale land processes that include small-scale variability of soil moisture, snow-cover and snow-physics, the biodiversity of the biosphere, orography, local drainage characteristics under natural conditions, and surface flow over the natural terrain. A well-known non-linear response of surface fluxes to these variations makes the problem of parameterizing land-atmosphere interaction processes hard-to-address and simulate, particularly in a GCM. In our presentation, we will discuss how orographic, snow-cover, and water table interactions can be included into a Simple Biosphere Model such as SiB/SSiB. Figure I shows how, in the Russian region, spring snowmelt affects the soil moisture profile. Corresponding figure 2 shows how interaction with the water table decreases the natural evapotranspiration in the Sahel region simulation. While these simulations need better validation with data, the simulations reveal that surface processes are sensitive to these parameterizations. With these developments, we continue to advance our understanding of the interaction of land with the atmosphere aloft, but the intrinsic variability of the newer parameters, e. g., hydraulic properties of the soil, diminish the positive influences of these advances on the improved climate simulation with GCMs.

Sud, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Airborne Spectral Measurements of Surface-Atmosphere Anisotropy for Skukuza and Mongu Sites

The Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) was flown aboard the University of Washington Convair CV-580 research aircraft and took measurements on 23 flights between August 15 and September 16. On 12 of those flights, BRF (bidirectional reflection function) measurements were obtained over different natural surfaces and ecosystems in southern Africa. The BRF measurements were done to characterize surface anisotropy in support of SAFARI 2000 science objectives principally to validate products from NASA's EOS (Earth Observing System) satellites, and to parameterize and validate BRF models. In this paper we present results of BRFs taken over two EOS validation sites: Skukuza tower, South Africa (25.0 S, 31.5 E) and Mongu tower, Zambia (15.4 S, 23.3 E). The CAR is capable of measuring scattered light in fourteen spectral bands. The scan mirror, rotating at 100 rpm, directs the light into a Dall-Kirkham telescope where the beam is split into nine paths. Eight light beams pass through beam splitters, dichroics, and lenses to individual detectors (0.34-1.27 microns), and finally are registered by eight data channels. They are sampled simultaneously and continuously. The ninth beam passes through a spinning filter wheel to an InSb detector cooled by a Stirling cycle cooler. Signals registered by the ninth data channel are selected from among six spectral channels (1.55-2.30 microns). The filter wheel can either cycle through all six spectral bands at a prescribed interval (usually changing filter every fifth scan line), or lock onto any one of the six spectral bands and sample it continuously. To measure the BRF of the surface-atmosphere system, the University of Washington CV-580 had to bank at a comfortable roll angle of approximately 20 degrees and fly in a circle about 3 km in diameter above the surface for roughly two minutes. Replicated observations (multiple circular orbits) were acquired over selected surfaces so that average BRF smooth out small-scale surface and atmospheric inhomogeneities. At an altitude of 600 m above the targeted surface area and with a 1 degree IFOV, the pixel resolution is about 10 m at nadir and about 270 m at an 80 degree viewing angle from the CAR.

Gatebe, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Passive Millimeter-wave Signatures of Ice Particles in Hurricane Erin

Observations of Hurricane Erin (2001) taken during the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-Q) are used to elucidate relationships between measurements and models. Measurements include active and passive microwave sensors, and dropsondes. Models used in the analysis include radiative transfer (RT) models, mesoscale models (MM5), and particle parameterizations. Various combinations of the models and observational constraints are used in the RT model to provide calculated brightness temperatures to compare to the passive observations. In order to match the wide frequency range 10 to 183±10 GHg model modifications were needed. The 55.5 GHz channel provided insight to the tropospheric temperature profile, while the 10 GHz channel provided knowledge of (near) ocean surface conditions. The channels less than ~90 GHz are mostly responsive to liquid in the cloud, while higher frequencies respond to ice particles in the cloud.

Ice clouds↗
NASA NTRS1990

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

The linearized global primitive equation model of Salby and Garcia (1987) was modified to study tropospheric circulations and their interaction with tropical convection. The vertical resolution was increased to approximately 1.5 km, with the effective vertical domain extending the approximately 40 km (higher altitudes in the calculation are used to ensure the radiation upper boundary condition is satisfied). A formal wave conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) parameterization was introduced. That parameterization allows low-frequency disturbances to interact with convection by organizing surface moisture. Boundary layer friction has two important effects in these calculations: it exaggerates surface convergence near the equator by driving the flow out of geostrophic balance; and it introduces a phase shift between the convergence pattern and the circulation, which drives the heating out of quadrature with the temperature field and allows a positive feedback to take place. The observational complement of this theoretical work involves Global Cloud Imagery (GCI) composited from six satellites in the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) which were simultaneously observing the Earth's cloud field. Having global coverage, horizontal resolution of half a degree, and produced synoptically every 3 hours, the GCI affords an unprecendented view of global convection. A full year (1983 to 1984) of GCI has now been successfully created. Among other phenomena, that imagery reveals a regular progression of easterly waves in the convective pattern of the Western Pacific. Those disturbances have odd symmetry about the equator and organize convection into a pattern with similar symmetry. In time-mean maps of cloud cover, these propagating disturbances produce a split Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the western Pacific.

Salby, Murry L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Model Parameterizations of Submicron Aerosol Scattering and Absorption with in situ Data from ARCTAS 2008

Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9- 02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT), and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1) package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1) to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC) on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10-23 percent, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GCRT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass fraction throughout the aerosol size distribution. Using a core-shell mixing rule in ASP overestimates aerosol absorption, especially for the fresh biomass burning aerosol measured in ARCTAS-B, suggesting the need for modeling the time-varying mixing states of aerosols in future versions of ASP.

Alvarado, Matthew J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CERES Fast Longwave And SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux): Research to Operation

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed as to provide key data for applied science research involving the renewable energy and agricultural sectors within a week of observations. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operation meteorology product from Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and its own surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Aqua and Terra observations, and 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) 1ox 1ogridded data that combines Aqua and Terra observations. We inter-compared of FLASHFlux Version4A calibration to the climate quality CERES Edition4A data product over time. In addition, we also inter-compared the impact of the fluxes by using the near real-time GMAO GEOS FP-IT instead of GMAO G5-CERES meteorology data. We also compare both SSF overpass and TISA radiative flux products to a set of surface measurement sites that are globally distributed and assess agreement.

P. C. Sawaengphokhai↗
NASA NTRS2012

Simulation of the Intraseasonal Variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in Climate Models

During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode. Further analysis illustrates that the observed 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC is closely linked to the eastward propagating ISV signals from the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific, which is in agreement with the general impression that the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC could be a local expression of the global Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In contrast, the convective signals associated with the 40-day mode over the EPAC in most of the GCM simulations tend to originate between 150degE and 150degW, suggesting the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC might be sustained without the forcing by the eastward propagating MJO. Further investigation is warranted towards improved understanding of the origin of the ISV over the EPAC.

Intraseasonal Variability↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Investigation of Potential Intermittency Induced Outage Modes for Wind Generation

In a deterministic contingency analysis (DCA), renewable generation such as wind is modeled similar to a conventional generator. In the current practices of a probabilistic contingency analysis (PCA), the outage parameters for a renewable generator reflect only failures of its parts. Intermittency due to wind speed changes or cloud cover may cause renewable generation to ramp up or down within a short time period and, after the transient is finished, stay at a certain generation level before a new ramp starts. A fast ramp-down transient can last for some time and thus, have an effect similar to a failure or de-rated generation of a conventional generator. This paper investigates potential outage modes that are induced by the intermittency of renewable generation, as well as the modeling and parameterization of such outage modes in the PCA framework. Historical time-series wind generation data are used in this study to extract different types of transients and perform statistical analyses to obtain input data such that the intermittency induced outages (IIOs) can be included in PCA.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗