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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Collaborative Proposal: Improving understanding of the internal structure and dynamics of deep convection using ARM observations and large eddy simulations

Recent observational and large eddy simulation (LES) modeling studies have nearly unanimously supported the view of deep cumulus convection being composed of a series of quasi-spherical bubbles of buoyant air, known as moist thermals. Despite the prevalence of moist thermals in deep convection, a comprehensive theory for the dynamics of these structures is lacking. Most current conceptual models for cumulus convection are based on canonical scaling theories for dry thermals or plumes; however, there is considerable evidence that the behavior of moist thermals differs markedly from these theories. Furthermore, the theoretical basis for most cumulus parameterizations originates from the plume conceptual model, and therefore these parameterizations are inconsistent with the real structure of moist convection. Motivated by the aforementioned knowledge gaps, this “end-to-end” research effort use theory, observations, numerical simulations, and direct improvements to the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme in the global climate Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to address the following research questions: What key environmental parameters determine whether or not shallow convection will transition into deep convection, in the context of thermal-like updrafts? What factors regulate the size of thermals within cumulus updrafts? How does vertical wind shear influence thermal behavior, and as a consequence, vertical velocity and mass flux profiles and the shallow-to-deep convective transition? What are the critical processes that determine updraft vertical velocities and their connection to the vertical mass flux profile for thermal-like updrafts? Idealized LES modeling will be used in conjunction with theoretical models for the core properties of thermal-like updrafts to better understand key processes that regulate thermal ascent rates and entrainment properties. Thermal-tracking procedures will be used to characterize the behavior of thermals within the LES, and recently developed direct measures of entrainment and detrainment will be used to quantify entrainment/detrainment rates. Building from these results, we will analyze the structure of moist thermals from hemispheric range-height indicator scans taken during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign, and from “real case” LES of CACTI events. This combined modeling and observational analysis will provide essential validation for the existing body of research on moist thermal dynamics, which is based primarily on modeling studies. With the insight gained from the aforementioned activities, we will modify the Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme to improve its representation of updraft vertical velocity and entrainment rate profiles. These process-level changes will be tested in the Community Atmosphere Model to assess the impact on global climate simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Salt Disposal Investigations to Study Thermally Hot Radioactive Waste In A Deep Geologic Repository in Bedded Rock Salt - 12488

A research program is proposed to investigate the behavior of salt when subjected to thermal loads like those that would be present in a high-level waste repository. This research would build upon results of decades of previous salt repository program efforts in the US and Germany and the successful licensing and operation of a repository in salt for disposal of defense transuranic waste. The proposal includes a combination of laboratory-scale investigations, numerical simulations conducted to develop validated models that could be used for future repository design and safety case development, and a thermal field test in an underground salt formation with a configuration that replicates a small portion of a conceptual repository design. Laboratory tests are proposed to measure salt and brine properties across and beyond the range of possible repository conditions. Coupled numerical models will seek to describe phenomenology (thermal, mechanical, and hydrological) observed in the laboratory tests. Finally, the field test will investigate many phenomena that have been variously cited as potential issues for disposal of thermally hot waste in salt, including buoyancy effects and migration of pre-existing trapped brine up the thermal gradient (including vapor phase migration). These studies are proposed to be coordinated and managed by the Carlsbad Field Office of DOE, which is also responsible for the operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) within the Office of Environmental Management. The field test portion of the proposed research would be conducted in experimental areas of the WIPP underground, far from disposal operations. It is believed that such tests may be accomplished using the existing infrastructure of the WIPP repository at a lower cost than if such research were conducted at a commercial salt mine at another location. The phased field test is proposed to be performed over almost a decade, including instrumentation development, several years of measurements during heating and then subsequent cooling periods, and the eventual forensic mining back of the test bed to determine the multi-year behavior of the simulated waste/rock environment. Funding possibilities are described, and prospects for near term start-up are discussed. Mining of the access drifts required to create the test area in the WIPP underground began in November 2011. Because this mining uses existing WIPP infrastructure and labor, it is estimated to take about two years to complete the access drifts. WIPP disposal operations and facility maintenance activities will take priority over the SDI field test area mining. Funding of the SDI proposal was still being considered by DOE's Offices of Environmental Management and Nuclear Energy at the time this paper was written, so no specific estimates of the progress in 2012 have been included. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling framework for process planning in laser powder-bed fusion additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

Here, Laser Powder-Bed Fusion (L-PBF) metal-based additive manufacturing (AM) is complex and not fully understood. Successful processing for one material, might not necessarily apply to a different material. This paper describes a workflow process that aims at creating a material data sheet standard that describes regimes where the process can be expected to be robust. The procedure consists of building a Gaussian process-based surrogate model of the L-PBF process that predicts melt pool depth in single-track experiments given a laser power, scan speed, and laser beam size combination. The predictions are then mapped onto a power versus scan speed diagram delimiting the conduction from the keyhole melting controlled regimes. This statistical framework is shown to be robust even for cases where experimental training data might be suboptimal in quality, if appropriate physics-based filters are applied. Additionally, it is demonstrated that a high-fidelity simulation model of L-PBF can equally be successfully used for building a surrogate model, which is beneficial since simulations are getting more efficient and are more practical to study the response of different materials, than to re-tool an AM machine for new material powder.

316L stainless steel↗

Get on the BAND Wagon: a Bayesian framework for quantifying model uncertainties in nuclear dynamics

In this paper, we describe the Bayesian Analysis of Nuclear Dynamics (BAND) framework, a cyberinfrastructure that we are developing which will unify the treatment of nuclear models, experimental data, and associated uncertainties. We overview the statistical principles and nuclear-physics contexts underlying the BAND toolset, with an emphasis on Bayesian methodology's ability to leverage insight from multiple models. In order to facilitate understanding of these tools we provide a simple and accessible example of the BAND framework's application. Four case studies are presented to highlight how elements of the framework will enable progress on complex, far-ranging problems in nuclear physics. By collecting notation and terminology, providing illustrative examples, and giving an overview of the associated techniques, this paper aims to open paths through which the nuclear physics and statistics communities can contribute to and build upon the BAND framework.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Critical Exploration of the Efficiency Impacts of Demand Response From HVAC in Commercial Buildings

Increasing quantities of renewable energy generation has yielded a need for greater energy storage capacity in power systems. Thermal storage in variable air volume (VAV) heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) in commercial buildings has been identified as an inexpensive source of grid storage, but the true costs are not known. Recent literature explores the inefficiency associated with providing grid services from these HVAC-based demand response (DR) resources by employing a battery analogy to calculate round-trip efficiency (RTE). Results vary significantly across studies and in some cases reported efficiencies are strikingly low. This article has three objectives to address these prior results. First, we synthesize and expand on insights into existing literature by systematically exploring the potential causes for the discrepancies in results. We reinforce previous work indicating baseline modeling may drive differences across studies and deduce that control accuracy plays a role in the major differences between experiments and simulation. Second, we discuss why the RTE metric is problematic for DR applications, discuss another proposed metric, additional energy consumption (AEC), and propose an extension, which we call uninstructed energy consumption (UEC), to evaluate DR performance. Finally, we explore the merits of different metrics using experimental data and highlight UEC's reduced sensitivity to the characteristics of the DR signal than previously proposed metrics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling Catalyzed Growth of Single-Wall Carbon Nanotubes (Final Report)

Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) are among the most promising nanostructures because of their special and unusual physico-chemical properties that make them strong candidates for a variety of applications. Since their discovery, chemical vapor deposition (CVD) methods have become the preferred synthesis method. CVD uses a carbon-containing precursor species, which is decomposed over a catalyst yielding C atoms that eventually evolve in carbon nanostructures. CVD temperatures are in the order of 1000K or lower, and pressures in the range of 1-5 atm, although some processes use higher pressures. Depending on the nature of the catalyst, and on the conditions of pressure, temperature, and presence of other inert compounds, the resultant nanostructures may include nanofibers, nano-onions, multiple-, or single-wall carbon nanotubes, among others. When the CVD synthesis process is appropriately tuned, however, it is possible to obtain only SWCNTs, which are geometrically characterized by their diameter and by their chiral angle. The chiral indexes (n,m) determine the degree of helical twist of the graphite lattice along the nanotube axis, where the term chirality is derived from the left and right-handed helicity of the tubes defined by their chiral indexes (n,m) and (m,n) respectively. The main goal of this research is to build fundamental understanding that will help elucidating the nature and structure of the actual catalyst in a combined catalyst/support system, which we claim is essential especially when the catalyst is of nanodimensions. Given that we are considerably advanced in the understanding of selective single-walled carbon nanotube catalyst synthesis, we take this process as a case study. Thus, we focus on the understanding of the selective growth of SWCNTs on supported nanocatalysts in systems where the catalyst synthesis takes place in the same reactor preceding the nanotube synthesis. Once we understand what type of catalyst structure would be necessary for this specific growth, we will try to elucidate the catalytic synthesis process that leads to such catalytic structure. Thus, our aim of controlling nanostructure synthesis may start to be delineated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Formal Methods for Verification and Validation of Partial Specifications: A Case Study

This paper describes our work exploring the suitability of formal specification methods for independent verification and validation (IV&V) of software specifications for large, safety critical systems. An IV&V contractor often has to perform rapid analysis on incomplete specifications, with no control over how those specifications are represented. Lightweight formal methods show significant promise in this context, as they offer a way of uncovering major errors, without the burden of full proofs of correctness. We describe a case study of the use of partial formal models for V&V of the requirements for Fault Detection Isolation and Recovery on the space station. We conclude that the insights gained from formalizing a specification are valuable, and it is the process of formalization, rather than the end product that is important. It was only necessary to build enough of the formal model to test the properties in which we were interested. Maintenance of fidelity between multiple representations of the same requirements (as they evolve) is still a problem, and deserves further study.

Easterbrook, Steve↗

Stable Inversion for Nonlinear Nonminimum-Phase Time Varying Systems

In this paper, we extend stable inversion to nonlinear time-varying systems and study computational issues; the technique is applicable to minimum-phase as well as nonminimum-phase systems. The inversion technique is new, even in the linear time-varying case, and relies on partitioning (the dichotomic split of) the linearized system dynamics into time-varying, stable, and unstable, submanifolds. This dichotomic split is used to build time-varying filters which are, in turn, the basis of a contraction used to find a bounded inverse input-state trajectory. Finding the inverse input-state trajectory allows the development or exact-output tracking controllers. The method is local to the time-varying trajectory and requires that the internal dynamics vary slowly; however, the method represents a significant advance relative to presently available tracking controllers. Present techniques are restricted to time-invariant nonlinear systems and, in the general case, track only asymptotically.

Devasia, S.↗

Particle Size Distributions in Chondritic Meteorites: Evidence for Pre-Planetesimal Histories

Magnesium-rich silicate chondrules and calcium-, aluminum-rich refractory inclusions (CAIs) are fundamental components of primitive chondritic meteorites. It has been suggested that concentration of these early-formed particles by nebular sorting processes may lead to accretion of planetesimals, the planetary bodies that represent the building blocks of the terrestrial planets. In this case, the size distributions of the particles may constrain the accretion process. Here we present new particle size distribution data for Northwest Africa 5717, a primitive ordinary chondrite (ungrouped 3.05) and the well-known carbonaceous chondrite Allende (CV3). Instead of the relatively narrow size distributions obtained in previous studies (Ebel et al., 2016; Friedrich et al., 2015; Paque and Cuzzi, 1997, and references therein), we observed broad size distributions for all particle types in both meteorites. Detailed microscopic image analysis of Allende shows differences in the size distributions of chondrule subtypes, but collectively these subpopulations comprise a composite "chondrule" size distribution that is similar to the broad size distribution found for CAIs. Also, we find accretionary 'dust' rims on only a subset (approximately 15-20 percent) of the chondrules contained in Allende, which indicates that subpopulations of chondrules experienced distinct histories prior to planetary accretion. For the rimmed subset, we find positive correlation between rim thickness and chondrule size. The remarkable similarity between the size distributions of various subgroups of particles, both with and without fine grained rims, implies a common size sorting process. Chondrite classification schemes, astrophysical disk models that predict a narrow chondrule size population and/or a common localized formation event, and conventional particle analysis methods must all be critically reevaluated. We support the idea that distinct "lithologies" in NWA 5717 are nebular aggregates of chondrules. If greater than or equal to centimeter-sized aggregates of chondrules can form it will have implications for planet formation and suggests the sticking stage is where the preferential size physics is operating.

chondritic meteorites↗

Trust in Collaborative Automation in High Stakes Software Engineering Work

The amount of autonomy in software engineering tools is increasing as developers build increasingly complex systems. Research in other domains shows that too much or too little trust in autonomous tools can have negative consequences, but we are not aware of any study that has investigated trust in autonomous tools in the highly interactive context of a software engineering workplace. We present the results of a ten week ethnographic case study of engineers collaborating with autonomous tools to write flight software at a large national space exploration organization to support high stakes missions. We find that trust in an autonomous software engineering tool in this setting was influenced by four main factors: the tool’s transparency, social context, an organization’s associated processes, and its usability. We outline theoretical implications for future research into trust in autonomous software engineering tools, and practical implications for tool designers and organizations conducting high stakes work with autonomous tools.

Davidoff, Scott↗