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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Predicting Future Disease Burden in a Rapidly Changing Climate

The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Golden Eagle and Bald Eagle Sensory Worlds to Enhance Detection and Response to Wind Turbines

Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) and Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are known to be involved in collisions with wind turbines. Our primary goal of this project was to characterize the auditory and visual physiology of Golden and Bald Eagles with the ultimate intention of providing this information to engineers for the development of novel deterrent systems. These systems can be used to reduce the risk of eagle collisions with turbines by alerting eagles to the presence of wind turbines so that they may change course, or deterring them from approaching turbines while operational. We proposed a two-phase research project. First, we needed to know basic eagle sensory physiology to develop effective multimodal (auditory and visual) stimuli tuned to eagle’s specific sensory capabilities. Second, we complemented the first phase of the project by running behavioral tests of prototype stimuli in wildlife rehabilitation centers to determine the responses of eagles. These two stages were necessary to ensure that the stimuli characteristics were not only conspicuous to the Golden and Bald Eagle’s sensory systems, but also generated the intended response when flying near wind turbines (e.g. enhanced detection).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Sensitive Resources Assessment and Forest Analysis for the Proposed Versatile Test Reactor, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is a leading institution in advanced materials, supercomputing, neutrons, and nuclear science. As a research laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for DOE, ORNL has national priorities in energy, security, and scientific discovery that necessitate facility improvements and expansions. DOE is also committed to environmental stewardship. The laboratory is located on the ~32,000-acre (~13,000-ha) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), much of which is categorized as a National Environmental Research Park (NERP) and a state Wildlife Management Area. DOE works with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA), Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), US Department of Agriculture, and other agencies to serve as an effective steward of the ORR. Accordingly, project managers must conform to environmental regulations, agreements, and policies at the federal, state, and institutional levels. Per 40 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) 1508.14, potential effects on research and science education also represent potential effects of federal actions on the NERP, and impacts on, e.g., deer harvest, must be considered on the Oak Ridge Wildlife Management Area when other aspects of the human environment are affected. The United States currently has no fast neutron testing capability to support advanced nuclear research and development. The proposed Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) will take advantage of current investments by the US government and private industry in nuclear reactors to expedite the design and construction process, using proven technology to create a world-class scientific infrastructure. The VTR will take advantage of fast neutrons provided by this proven technology, along with a capability to rapidly insert, conduct, and remove state-of-the-art experiments. An advantage of the VTR is that it can support future innovations in experimental capabilities without modifying the facility. The VTR will support progress in a variety of science and technology areas, including testing and qualification of advanced reactor fuels; testing and qualification of innovative structural materials; testing of innovative components and instruments; validation of advanced modeling and simulation tools; and versatility for future technical missions. Through proven technology, the VTR can take advantage of existing reactor designs and operating experience to reduce the risk, cost, and time for design and construction. The top available resources of DOE laboratories, industry, and universities will be used to expedite reactor design and construction toward developing the scientific infrastructure that affords a strong testing capability that can be sustained over many years. This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources primarily within the VTR construction area. At the time of this report, the proposed VTR site design includes a construction area of ~150.4 acres (~69.9 ha), which contains an ~51.3-acre (~20.8-ha) operations area, located within forested natural areas of the ORR. The primary goal of the work presented here was to evaluate potential effects on sensitive resources that might result from development and construction activities associated with VTR. In addition to on-the-ground surveys during spring and summer 2020 by the ORNL Natural Resources Management Program and Aquatic Ecology Group staff, this report makes use of historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995 to present) data from additional confirmed sources (e.g., TDEC). Likewise, forest conditions were compiled from a 2011 forest inventory and supplemented with limited ground observations in 2020. The individuals who obtained and compiled the data presented here are familiar with and routinely assess sensitive resources on the ORR. Anyone who references this report must consider that the timing of surveys did not permit a complete delineation of the resources that will be affected. If the VTR project proceeds, additional surveys will be required to account for the seasonal patterns of various threatened and endangered species. Data deficiencies and potential resources that likely went undetected are indicated where possible. Accordingly, this report should facilitate more environmentally sound decisions during planning and 2 development of the VTR site, provide a foundation for further assessment of sensitive and cultural resources, and help project managers better address regulatory guidance and DOE policies on sustainable development in compliance with, for example, the US Endangered Species Act (ESA), Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), Tennessee Rare Plant Protection and Conservation Act of 1985, Tennessee Nongame and Endangered or Threatened Wildlife Species Conservation Act of 1974, several federal and state regulations regarding aquatic resource protection, and site-specific policies as outlined in various ORR management plans developed by ORNL and TWRA for DOE.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Systems Level Understanding of Interconnected Methane and Nitrogen Cycles Using Complex Synthetic Communities

The main goal of this project was to follow up on prior discovery of the communal nature of methane utilization by the aerobic methanotrophic bacteria, resulting in carbon transfer along a food chain. This goal was approached via manipulation of specially designed, synthetic bacterial communities, fed exclusively by methane, under a variety of simulated environmental conditions. Using (meta)genomics, metatranscriptomics, stable isotope probing and mutant generation, we obtained solid evidence for the nature of the core microbiota involved in collaborative methane consumption, the major players (true methanotrophs) being the members of the family Methylococcaceae, their major partners (non-methanotrophic methylotrophs) being members of the family Methylophilaceae, and minor but persistent partners in the communities being members of the orders Burkholderiales and Bacteroidetes. Metabolic reconstruction from single genomes and metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), along with metatranscriptomics results delineated major pathways for carbon metabolism, suggesting that the methanotrophs share different organic compounds with different functional guilds: methanol with Methylophilaceae, acetate with Burkholderiales, and polymeric substances with Bacteroidetes. Overall, the results of this project expand our understanding of microbial metabolism of methane and, thus, provide basis for strategies for microbial methane mitigation, with obvious benefits to the society of the United States and worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E-PiPEline: Face Shields and Face Coverings Using Commonly Available Materials

The Center for Disease Control has recommended that the public should wear cloth face coverings in public settings . Face coverings and face shields can be made by using Commonly Available Materials (CAMs). As part of the Sandia COVID - 19 LDRD effort (funded under the Materials Science Investment Area), the Sandia E - PiPEline task evaluated design options for face coverings and face shields considering their effectiveness, durability, build difficulty, build cost, and comfort. Observations from this investigation are presented here to provide guidelines for home construction of face coverings and face shields

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methanotrophic-Mediated Methylmercury Transformation: Characterization of Products, Mechanism, and Environmental Significance (Final Technical Report)

Previous work in the laboratories of the PIs found that methanotrophs, through the production of a novel metal chelator called methanobactin (MB), can bind inorganic mercury (Hg[II]). By doing so, methanotrophs substantially reduce Hg[II] toxicity. We have also recently shown that MB can bind a much more toxic form of mercury, the neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg). MeHg bioaccumulates and biomagnifies in biota such as fish, and is of significant concern. Further, certain methanotrophs expressing MB are able to demethylate significant amounts of MeHg despite lacking merB, the organomercurial lyase. Further, unlike the canonical organomercurial lyase, methanotrophs take up and degrade MeHg at environmentally relevant pH and Hg concentrations (i.e., picomolar to nanomolar), suggesting that methanotrophs likely play a critical role in controlling net MeHg production and toxicity in situ. However, although MB is necessary for methanotrophic-mediated MeHg degradation, it is not sufficient as purified MB binds, but does not degrade MeHg. That is, MB appears to serve as binding device leading to demethylation of MeHg by an as yet unknown mechanism. The major goals of this project were to extend this initial work and characterize the mechanism of methanotrophic-mediated MeHg demethylation and how methanobactin production may affect net methylmercury production in situ.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A trait-based framework for linking microbial communities with carbon transformations under precipitation change

Droughts are common throughout the world. As the climate changes, droughts may become more frequent and intense. Still, scientists are uncertain about how drought will affect the natural world, particularly the bacteria, fungi, and other microbes that live in soils. These tiny life forms are crucial because they control the Earth’s flows of carbon and essential nutrients. Researchers at the University of California, Irvine, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory teamed up to study how the microbiome, or collection of bacteria and fungi in the soil, deals with drought. Since 2007, the researchers have used shelters with retractable roofs to prevent nearly half of normal rainfall from reaching grass and shrub ecosystems, and their soil microbiomes, in Southern California. The study team discovered that microbes have some clever tricks up their sleeve for surviving drought. When growing on dead grass as a food source, microbes ramp up production of specialized chemicals called osmolytes that keep their cells from drying out. But microbes growing on dead shrubs face another problem. Unlike grass, shrub leaves are a lousy food source. To digest and consume shrub leaves, microbes have to exude more enzymes, which act like biochemical chef knives that chop complex leaf molecules into bite-sized pieces. Carbon is the coin of the microbial realm, earned via enzyme action or slurping up dead plant juices. Microbes growing under normal conditions on tasty dead grass have it easy: they can spend most of their carbon currency on growth. With drought, life gets harder as microbes need to pay up for osmolytes and ramp down their growth. It gets worse with shrub leaves because microbes have to multi-task among growth, enzyme secretion, and osmolyte production. When drought hits, microbes on shrub leaves forgo the osmolytes, probably because losing the carbon revenue from enzyme investment would be a deal-breaker for survival. The next question tackled by the researchers asked how the genes controlling microbial lifestyles sort out across the tree of life. Most microbiologists thought these lifestyles would correspond to rather large branches on the tree. But the study team found that in fact, very closely related microbes differ in important and interesting ways. For example, bacteria that have nearly identical housekeeping genes respond distinctively to warming, rainfall, and plant chemistry. As a result, soil microbiomes are much richer in diversity than originally thought. And studying microbial diversity in much greater detail could open up many more possibilities for how microbial life deals with changing environmental conditions. Trying to understand microbial life without the fine details of genetic diversity is like trying to stream Netflix on a dial-up connection. By looking across the landscape, the researchers revealed that microbial diversity is absolutely critical for maintaining the planet’s flows of carbon and nutrients. The study team designed a new technology—microbial cages—for transplanting intact microbiomes. With the cages, the researchers could move microbiomes to novel environments and compare their ability to cycle carbon and nutrients. In some cases, performance tailed off when microbiomes found themselves in a new environment, but in other cases, performance rivaled or even exceeded that of the resident microbiome. And even the low performers eventually caught up to the native microbiomes if given sufficient time. These findings mean that microbiomes—at least in Southern California—may be resilient to climate shifts due to a high diversity of microbial lifestyles. Coping with heat and drought may literally be in their DNA. The last piece of the research puzzle, and a “Holy Grail” for microbial ecologists, is to forecast the behavior of diverse microbiomes. To meet this challenge, the study team developed new theory and computer models. For the first time, these models account for hundreds of different microbes and how their intricate lifestyles cope with drought. The models are starting to connect the tiniest microbes with the global cycles that sustain Earth’s farms, fields, and forests. With that connection, it will be easier for society to plan for a world with more droughts and other climate disruptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lac du Flambeau - Climate Change Resilience Initiative (Final Report)

The goals of this project were to create a comprehensive Environmental Resiliency Plan and to increase the capacity of all Lac du Flambeau Tribal Program Managers to incorporate environmental impact thinking into the everyday management of their departments. Environmental Resiliency Planning utilized current Tribal documents, which include the Integrated Resource Management Plan (IRMP), the Lac du Flambeau Tribal Emergency Management Plan (EMP), and the Lac du Flambeau Strategic Energy Plan, as guidance throughout the process. A vulnerability assessment initiated our technical process and allowed us to identify, quantify, and prioritize (or rank) the vulnerabilities in our system. This set the stage for a reduction and resilience plan as well as providing insight for revisions of existing management plans such as the Energy and Integrated Resources Management Plans

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Helpful Engineering's Universal Citizen Protection Device (UCPD)

The Universal Citizen Protection Device (UCPD) is a UV-based, filterless PPE concept developed by Helpful Engineering that aims to keep viral particles out of eyes, nose and mouth with a 99%+ reliability. The heart of the device is a concealed UV chamber that decontaminates all air going in and out of the PPE. The objective of this project was to provide measurements as evidence of proof of function of a representative prototype. Sandia utilized its aerosol characterization facility to measure the amount of virus that is inactivated by the device at representative flow rates and concentrations, using MS2 bacteriophage as the BSL-1 viral surrogate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative form and fit of N95 filtering facepiece respirators are retained after dry and humid heat treatments for coronavirus deactivation

Re-use of filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs, commonly referred to as N95s) normally meant for single use only is becoming common in healthcare facilities due to shortages caused by the COVID19 pandemic. Here we report that mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) initially seeded on FFR filter material is inactivated (6 log reduction as measured by 50% tissue culture infective dose (TCID50)) after dry heating at 75 °C for 30 minutes. We also find that the quantitative fit of FFRs after heat treatment at this temperature, under dry conditions or at 90% relative humidity, is not affected by single or ten heating cycles. Previous studies have reported that the filtration efficiency of FFR filters is not negatively impacted by these heating conditions. These results suggest that thermal inactivation of coronaviruses is a potentially rapid and widely deployable method to re-use N95 FFRs in emergency situations where reusing FFRs is a necessity and broad-spectrum sterilization is unavailable. However, we also found that a heat source that emits radiation (e.g., an exposed heating element) results in rapid qualitative degradation of the FFR. Finally, we discuss differences in the results reported here and other recent studies investing heat as a means to recycle FFRs and suggest that overall wear time and donning/doffing cycles are important factors that need to be considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Science & Technology Review August 2020

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hotel Room Computational Fluid Dynamics to Investigate Airborne Pathogen Dispersal Patterns

A hotel room unit consisting of a bedroom and bathroom was modelled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate airborne pathogen dispersal patterns. The full-scale model includes a ‘typical’ hotel room configuration, furniture, and vents. The air sources and sinks include a bathroom vent, a heating, ventilation, and cooling (HVAC) unit located in the bedroom, and a ½” gap at the bottom of the entry door. In addition, the entry door and window can be opened or closed, as desired. Three key configuration simulations were conducted: 1) both the bathroom vent and HVAC were on, 2) only the HVAC was on, and 3) only the bathroom vent was on. If the HVAC air is from a fresh, clean source, or passes through a high-efficiency filter/UV device, then the first configuration is the safest, as contaminated air is highly reduced. The second configuration is also safe, but does not benefit from the outsourcing of potentially-infected air, such as contaminated air flowing through an ineffective filter. The third configuration should be avoided, as the bathroom vent causes air to flow from the hallway, which can be of dubious origin. The CFD simulations also showed that recirculation and swirling regions tend to accumulate the largest concentrations of heavier airborne particles, pathogens, dust, etc. These regions are associated with the largest turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) , and tend to occur in areas with flow recirculation and corners. Therefore, TKE presents a reasonable metric to guide the strategic location of pathogen mitigation devices. The simulations show complex flow patterns with distinct upper and lower flow regions, swirling flow, and significant levels of turbulent mixing. These simulations provide intriguing insights that can be applied to help mitigate pathogen aerosol dispersal, generate building design guidelines, as well as provide insights for the strategic placement of mitigation devices, such as ultraviolet (UV) light, supplemental fans, and filters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Game Distribution Camera Study at Los Alamos National Laboratory [Poster]

The unique habitats at the Laboratory support a diverse community of wildlife. The habitat types that include Pinon Juniper, Ponderosa Pine, and Mixed-conifer forests each provide different resources important for a variety of species. Wildlife monitoring for large game animals can be challenging because they avoid interactions with humans, and prefer undeveloped areas. This study was conducted to analyze the distribution of predators and other game animals seasonally across the Laboratory. The data gathered will be used to make recommendations regarding wildlife management for conservation and protection. Utilizing game cameras to remotely monitor wildlife was determined to be the most effective, noninvasive method to gather the necessary data. As camera technology has advanced, game cameras have become adequate for documenting individuals, and are commonly used in wildlife studies on predation, abundance, occupancy, diversity, and endangered species detection. Twenty cameras were placed across the LANL landscape using a modified systematic sampling design. They were deployed in February 2018 and retrieved in January 2019, thus each camera sampled for one full year. All images were reviewed and the species, number, age, and sex of all animals in the photo were recorded. Here we present data for the most abundant species encountered: deer, elk, coyote, bear, bobcat, mountain lion, and fox respectively. The data were summarized by species and season. Future work will include occupancy modelling for each species. This will allow the development of heat maps showing species distributions across the Laboratory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Review of International Field Experience with Well Integrity at Carbon Utilization and Storage Sites

This report details findings from a survey of well integrity experiences elicited from operators of geologic carbon storage (GCS) and carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) sites around the world. The survey consisted of 41 questions organized in four sections and its goal was to obtain information about site characteristics and operator experiences with well integrity, monitoring methods, and risk assessment of legacy wells. Current literature relevant to the survey questions was also reviewed and summarized to provide context for survey responses and identify areas where field experiences with well integrity do and do not align with the current state of research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗