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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Let’s Unleash the Network Judgment: A Self-Supervised Approach for Cloud Image Analysis

Accurate cloud type identification and coverage analysis are crucial in understanding the Earth’s radiative budget. Traditional computer vision methods rely on low-level visual features of clouds for estimating cloud coverage or sky conditions. Several handcrafted approaches have been proposed; however, scope for improvement still exists. Newer deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated superior performance for cloud segmentation and categorization. These methods, however, need expert engineering intervention in the preprocessing steps—in the traditional methods—or human assistance in assigning cloud or clear sky labels to a pixel for training DNNs. Such human mediation imposes considerable time and labor costs. We present the application of a new self-supervised learning approach to autonomously extract relevant features from sky images captured by ground-based cameras, for the classification and segmentation of clouds. We evaluate a joint embedding architecture that uses self-knowledge distillation plus regularization. We use two datasets to demonstrate the network’s ability to classify and segment sky images—one with ~85,000 images collected from our ground-based camera and another with 400 labeled images from the WSISEG database. We find that this approach can discriminate full-sky images based on cloud coverage, diurnal variation, and cloud base height. Additionally, it semantically segments the cloud areas without labels. The approach shows competitive performance in all tested tasks, suggesting a new alternative for cloud characterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiview Incomplete Knowledge Graph Integration with application to cross-institutional EHR data harmonization

Objective: The growing availability of electronic health records (EHR) data opens opportunities for integrative analysis of multi-institutional EHR to produce generalizable knowledge. A key barrier to such integrative analyses is the lack of semantic interoperability across different institutions due to coding differences. We propose a Multiview Incomplete Knowledge Graph Integration (MIKGI) algorithm to integrate information from multiple sources with partially overlapping EHR concept codes to enable translations between healthcare systems. Methods: The MIKGI algorithm combines knowledge graph information from (i) embeddings trained from the co-occurrence patterns of medical codes within each EHR system and (ii) semantic embeddings of the textual strings of all medical codes obtained from the Self-Aligning Pretrained BERT (SAPBERT) algorithm. Due to the heterogeneity in the coding across healthcare systems, each EHR source provides partial coverage of the available codes. MIKGI synthesizes the incomplete knowledge graphs derived from these multi-source embeddings by minimizing a spherical loss function that combines the pairwise directional similarities of embeddings computed from all available sources. MIKGI outputs harmonized semantic embedding vectors for all EHR codes, which improves the quality of the embeddings and enables direct assessment of both similarity and relatedness between any pair of codes from multiple healthcare systems. Results: With EHR co-occurrence data from Veteran Affairs (VA) healthcare and Mass General Brigham (MGB), MIKGI algorithm produces high quality embeddings for a variety of downstream tasks including detecting known similar or related entity pairs and mapping VA local codes to the relevant EHR codes used at MGB. Based on the cosine similarity of the MIKGI trained embeddings, the AUC was 0.918 for detecting similar entity pairs and 0.809 for detecting related pairs. For cross-institutional medical code mapping, the top 1 and top 5 accuracy were 91.0% and 97.5% when mapping medication codes at VA to RxNorm medication codes at MGB; 59.1% and 75.8% when mapping VA local laboratory codes to LOINC hierarchy. When trained with 500 labels, the lab code mapping attained top 1 and 5 accuracy at 77.7% and 87.9%. MIKGI also attained best performance in selecting VA local lab codes for desired laboratory tests and COVID-19 related features for COVID EHR studies. Compared to existing methods, MIKGI attained the most robust performance with accuracy the highest or near the highest across all tasks. Conclusions: The proposed MIKGI algorithm can effectively integrate incomplete summary data from biomedical text and EHR data to generate harmonized embeddings for EHR codes for knowledge graph modeling and cross-institutional translation of EHR codes.

Zhou, Doudou↗

Air classification of forest residue for tissue and ash separation efficiency

The goal of this Case Study was to evaluate the performance of air classification of logging residues toward meeting conversion CMAs for carbon and ash contents, as compared to the static status quo Base Case system in which the residues are first dried and then ground in a hammer mill with a 6 mm screen and fines < 1.18 mm are removed. Also considered were moisture and ash impacts on throughput and Overall Operating Effectiveness (OOE), as well as delivered feedstock cost and minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Laboratory data on the impacts of fan speed and moisture content on the separation efficiency of soil ash, needles and bark from white wood were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2. Average throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from the Bioenergy Feedstock National User Facility (BFNUF) for the same air classifier. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the Base Case status quo system utilizes drying prior to grinding, we modeled the Case Study with drying prior to air classification and subsequent grinding of the separated white wood to isolate the individual quality and cost impacts of air classification relative to the Base Case system. Key takeaways from this Case Study are that air classification improves the quality of the final material, but increases the production cost, especially when lights are disposed; this becomes a tradeoff between increased conversion yield and the extra cost. Removing material should be done as early in the process as possible. Each operation that occurs prior to removing the material increases the cost of the disposed material and leads to wasted energy expenditures. As processes are included or modified, the impact on monetary and energy cost should be included in the decision process. Identifying alternative uses and the associated value for material that is separated from the feedstock stream will have a significant impact on the delivered cost of the material. Although there was an increase in production cost by adding air classification, there was a resulting benefit to the MFSP when meeting or exceeding all of the conversion CMAs; this was an important finding that should be explored further with FCIC Subtask 8.3 and potentially FCIC Task 6.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Effect of realistic routing on the social burden metric

The distance people travel to reach critical services is a key input to the Social Burden metric used by Sandia’s Resilient Node Cluster Analysis Tool (ReNCAT) in the optimization’s objective function. By default, ReNCAT utilizes Euclidian distances between population blocks and critical facilities when calculating Social Burden. However, these straight-line distances do not reflect how most residents or goods would travel throughout the area. As distance is a vital input to the burden calculation, a more realistic distance calculation will yield more realistic burden values. This work uses real road networks and calculates the shortest distance path between population centers and critical facilities using a standard graph theory approach. These realistic route distances are then used to compute Social Burden for four areas of study. It was found that distances using real road routes are generally, but not always, longer than the Euclidean distance. The increased length increases the final Social Burden metric, however, the overall burden percent change ranged between 17% and 52%, which means the impact of realistic routes relies heavily upon the area’s road topology. It was found that rural locations within an area may have larger burden increases than urban areas as more dense road networks allow routes to more closely follow a straight-line path. Additionally, using the most straight forward routing algorithms requires high computational effort for areas with large road networks. While it is believed this process can be made more performant, that task is beyond this scope of work.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Sparse and Low Rank Penalized Signal Decomposition Model with Constraints: Anomaly Detection in PV Systems

Recently, robust PCA has seen its wide application in various industries for its ability to perform the task of anomaly detection. The essence of robust PCA approach is to break down the signal into a low rank component and sparse component. In many applications, a simple breakdown of the signal without accounting for the signs of low rank components and sparse components would violate the physical constraints of the decomposed signal. In addition, often times, the signals in the real world collected for a long duration has smooth changes within a day and between days. As an example, the power signals collected in a photovoltaic (PV) system are cyclostationary, exhibiting these characteristics. Neglecting the smoothness of signals would result in miss detection of anomalous signals which are smooth within a day but non-smooth between days and vice versa. In this paper, we developed a signal decomposition approach for the purpose of anomaly detection based on the idea of low rank and sparse decomposition taking into consideration the signs of the decomposed low rank and sparse components and the within-day and between-day smooth changes in the original signals. The proposed unsupervised approach for fault detection eliminates the need for faulty samples required by other machine learning methods. It does not require the full I-V characteristics to work. Furthermore, there is no need for complex modelling of PV systems as in the case of power loss analysis. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the ability of our proposed approach for detecting anomalies of different duration and severity in PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Innovative Advanced Hydrogen Mobile Fueler (Final Technical Report)

The US Department of Energy (DOE) funded a project to design, develop, deploy and analyze the economic viability of an innovative Advanced Hydrogen Mobile Fueler (AHMF). As part of the design activity the project team defined specifications based upon vehicle requirements and compliance with specific fueling performance criteria. The AHMF was originally designed to fuel 10-20 fuel cell vehicles (FCV) per day, consistent with the requirements of the H70 fueling category. The AHMF is able to operate without remote power connections, is modular for easy transport and deployment, and can provide expanded daily capacity and multi-day operations using delivered gaseous hydrogen. Toward the end of the project, due to request from the hydrogen industry and some necessary modifications of the AHMF, the system is now modified to fuel heavy duty vehicles. The project was conducted over two primary phases, each including several key tasks, subtasks, and project milestones. Phase 1 involved the design, development, and construction of the AHMF, moving from a conceptual design through to completion of assembly and testing. In addition to reviewing several different approaches, the team chose to take a conventional station design and modify it for mobile fueling. There were several innovative components included in the design. The high pressure storage was the first to achieve a US Department of Energy (DOE) Special Permit (SP 20391) to transport high pressure hydrogen (95 MPa) in a composite cylinder. The second novel system was a liquid nitrogen (LIN) cooling system with a compact heat exchanger. Without this change, the cooling system would not be able to fit into the AHMF. Phase 2 demonstrated the AHMF by fueling fuel cell buses at a fleet in Pomona, CA. The site was chosen because a temporary fueling solution was required while a fixed station was being installed. The existing permits for the fixed station and non-public access also was a determining factor. Over two months, the buses were fueled 320 times with over 5000 kg of hydrogen from tube trailers. Existing shore power was used, and the average electrical efficiency was 0.13 kWh/kg. The average liquid nitrogen (LIN) consumption was 90.68 scf/kg. The fueling and consumption data was provided to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for analysis. An economic analysis was performed and will be provided in a separate report. The project was successful, but not without challenges and lessons learned. The DOT special permit led the way for the use of high pressure, composite cylinders and is being by multiple other systems and applications. The pandemic along with time for the DOT special permit approval delayed the project for years. The team also believes that hydrogen mobile fueling has a use for the industry, especially during this upcoming phase of expansion. However, it does have its limitations due to high cost to build and operate, and the same permitting challenges as a fixed station. A fully capable system at the speeds and pressures of the AHMF may not be necessary for most applications and would help reduce the cost and increase storage capacity. The on-board generator can be easily replaced with shore power or the wide range of power generation solutions in the marketplace. One of the major results of the project was the development of new code language in National Fire Protection Agency (NFPA) 2 and the International Fire Code (IFC) for on-demand mobile fueling. This will provide guidance for Authorities Having Jurisdiction (AHJ) and user on how to permit temporary fueling sites across the nation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Design of metal-mediated protein assemblies via hydroxamic acid functionalities

The self-assembly of proteins into sophisticated multicomponent assemblies is a hallmark of all living systems and has spawned extensive efforts in the construction of novel synthetic protein architectures with emergent functional properties. Protein assemblies in nature are formed via selective association of multiple protein surfaces through intricate noncovalent protein-protein interactions, a challenging task to accurately replicate in the de novo design of multiprotein systems. In this protocol, we describe the application of metal-coordinating hydroxamate (HA) motifs to direct the metal-mediated assembly of polyhedral protein architectures and 3D crystalline protein frameworks (protein-MOFs). This strategy has been implemented using an asymmetric cytochrome cb562 monomer through selective, concurrent association of Fe 3+ and Zn 2+ ions to form polyhedral cages. Furthermore, the use of ditopic HA linkers as bridging ligands with metal-binding protein nodes has allowed the construction of crystalline 3D protein-MOF lattices. The protocol is divided into two major sections: (1) the development of a Cys-reactive HA molecule for protein derivatization and self-assembly of protein-HA conjugates into polyhedral cages and (2) the synthesis of ditopic HA bridging ligands for the construction of ferritin-based protein-MOFs using symmetric metal-binding protein nodes. Furthermore, protein cages can be analyzed using analytical ultracentrifugation (AUC), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and single-crystal X-ray diffraction (sc-XRD) techniques. HA-mediated protein-MOFs are formed in sitting-drop vapor diffusion crystallization trays and are probed via sc-XRD and multi-crystal small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) measurements. Ligand synthesis, construction of HA-mediated assemblies, and post-assembly analysis as described in this protocol can be performed by a graduate-level researcher within six weeks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A use-case-driven approach for demonstrating the added value of digitalisation in wind energy

Digitalisation is one of the key drivers for reducing the costs and risks of wind energy. When considering whether to embark on a digitalisation initiative, two key questions arise. The first is what business or operational opportunities might feasibly be addressed and the second is which of the many potential aspects of digitalisation are relevant to those opportunities. In this work, we show how these questions can be answered with a use-case-driven approach, based around a survey aiming to collect and collate the main "pain points" (or everyday challenges) of people in the wind energy sector. Although the relatively low number of participants of the survey (46) means that the results should only be used indicatively, it is still possible to make some general recommendations for priorities for digitalisation efforts in the wind energy sector. Firstly, digitalisation efforts should focus both on supporting people carrying out cross-lifecycle tasks, in particular sharing data, managing data, undertaking general data analyses and accessing data. Tools to do this should deal with varying data formats and naming conventions, make metadata more accessible, define data and metadata standards, make more data publicly available and improve the quality of data. Secondly, efforts should also focus on supporting people in the wind farm operational phase, in particular with failure detection, fault diagnosis, failure rate modelling and predictive maintenance. Solutions to do this should focus on accessible and validated tools for fault detection, cloud or other data pipeline solutions for SCADA data and tools for exhaustive data documentation. Finally, digitalisation efforts should focus on better communicating and helping people become aware of existing solutions and tools, as well as on helping people to exert a stronger influence on possible solutions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NRC Multiphysics Analysis Capability Deployment FY21: Part 3

This report details the progress and activities of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) project “Development and Modeling Support for Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors.” The deliverables completed for this report are: Deliverable 1c: the capability to model gas mixtures was added to Pronghorn. A test problem mimicking the conditions achieved in a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) event was solved with both RELAP-5 and Pronghorn. Pronghorn employed a finite vol ume method with the Kurganov-Tadmor discretization. The comparison between the mass fraction spatial profiles computed with RELAP-5 and Pronghorn clearly shows the presence of numerical artifacts (i.e., overly diffusive behavior at low Mach numbers). We confirmed that the problem disappears at higher Mach numbers. We recommend future work on the implementation of a low Mach finite volume formulation to better treat low Mach number problems. Deliverable 2a: we demonstrated two approaches to model the radiation/conduction/natural convection heat transfer across a stagnant gas for the PBMR-400 design using Pronghorn. The first approach is based on the net radiation method, which relies on the computation of view factors with the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) ray tracing capability. The second method is a traditional thermal resistance approach. The test problems include both 2D and 3D geometries. In all cases, the results show very good agreement during a DLOFC transient. This confirms that the faster thermal resistance method produces solutions that are equivalent to the net radiation method for this geometry. Deliverable 3d: we demonstrated the use of the advection kernel for the delayed neutron precursor equation in Griffin with a 2D MSFR model. The results appear physical but further verification is recommended. We also recommend the addition of conjugate heat transfer to compute the temperatures and model the thermomechanic behavior of the reflectors and other structures. Significant memory and performance issues were encountered in the 3D axisymmetric model. Future work is recommended in this area. Task 8g: this task allows multidimensional MOOSE applications to be coupled to system codes (RELAP-7 and SAM). We implemented a faster multiphysics iteration coupling algorithm, which provides an overall 6× acceleration of the 3D-1D coupling of the core multidi- mensional fluid flow solver and the 1D primary and secondary loop model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Time Dependence of Methane Generation Rates from Saltstone

This report documents the tests performed to address the requirements listed in the Technical Request, which resulted in a Task Technical & Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP) and a Run Plan to obtain the required information. The research expands previous scoping work to better understand methane generation in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). That scoping work demonstrated that methane is produced when sulfide-containing material is added to methylmercury (MeHg), which is found in the SDF Tank 50 feed waste. When Tank 50 waste is combined with grout premix solids dry feed ingredients of cement, slag cement, and fly ash, sulfides are released from the slag cement component of the premix. The prior testing results showed that while the concentration of total mercury was not affected in the pH 14 waste, the MeHg likely reacted with the sulfide contained in the slag. The scoping tests were performed in sealed reactors and thus, methane generation was not measured continuously; rather, it was measured after one hour and after 24 hours. After 24 hours, a large percentage of the MeHg was converted to methane, but after 1 hour only a small percentage of methane was released. It is noteworthy that the methane generation rate (MGR) was greater at the one-hour measurement. The data compiled from the scoping work needed to be expanded to better understand the generation of methane released from grout mixed with Tank 50 waste. This expanded study developed a more extensive knowledge of how and when methane is generated to inform the Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) of the SDF. As such, employing 8 sealed reactors, the methane generation time periods were extended to 2, 4, 6, 18, 30, 48, 72, and 96 hours (4 days). Results are documented herein to determine the capacity for MeHg, contained within Tank 50 salt solution (T50SS) simulant, to produce methane when mixed with saltstone dry feed ingredients, i.e., individual components (cement, slag, and fly ash) or a combination of those components.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DETECTING FIRE WITH MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED VISUAL MONITORING FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ENVIRONMENTS

Nuclear power plants are experiencing significant cost challenges to remain competitive with other energy-generation utilities. Unlike other industries, the cost of operation and maintenance activities is mostly attributed to workforce costs. To mitigate this, nuclear power plant stakeholders are increasingly interested in the development and deployment of machine learning methods to potentially automate or augment manually intensive tasks to reduce costs, especially for monitoring activities. One monitoring function that is visually demanding and that can occur frequently to meet the requirements of a fire protection program is visually monitoring an area for fire occurrence. Currently, fire watch activities consist of a worker physically stationed at a given location with the sole responsibility of observing a given area to ensure a fire is detected and mitigated promptly. This effort focused on the development and evaluation of a suitable deep convolutional neural network to classify individual video frames at a sub-second frequency for the occurrence of “fire” and “no fire” in varying industrial environments similar to nuclear power plants. It is believed that a trained neural network model could be integrated with existing facility video surveillance camera feeds to generate alerts when fire inferences occur in individual frames captured at sub-second temporal resolutions. Extensive effort was dedicated to identifying and curating suitable imagery training data representing varying environments and scene settings with and without flame features to maximize generalization in nuclear power plant environments. The data collection effort resulted in the aggregation of a large, labeled image library exceeding 12,000 images to support model training for diverse industrial environments. A deep neural network model incorporating parallel multi-scale capabilities was developed and trained to support accurate image-based detection of flame incidents of varying sizes and spectral feature properties within heterogeneous scenes. Analysis results show that the trained model can achieve high inference accuracy despite heterogeneous scene environments and components. Testing accuracy exceeded 95.0 percent with very low false positive and false negative inferences.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

"Soiling, Cleaning, and Abrasion: The Results of the Five-Year Photovoltaic Glass Coating Field Study" [Slides]

External contamination ("soiling") of the incident surface is a major limiting factor for solar technologies. A 5-year field glass coupon study was conducted to better understand external contamination and its effects; compare cleaning methods and the use of preventative coatings; and explore the abrasion resulting from cleaning to advise on accelerated abrasion testing. Test sites included the cities of Dubai (UAE), Kuwait City (Kuwait), Mesa (AZ), Mumbai (India), and Sacramento (CA). Through the 5-year cumulative study, dry brush, water spray, and wet sponge and squeegee cleaning methods were compared to no cleaning. Optical microscopy was used to obtain images, including representative color images, grayscale images for object analysis, and oblique images for coating integrity assessment. A thresholding protocol was developed to analyze and distinguish specimens using the ImageJ software. Optical performance was quantified using a spectrophotometer, including comprehensive optical characterization (transmittance, reflectance, and absorptance in addition to forward- and back-scattering). Atomic force microscopy was used to verify the abrasion damage morphology, including the width and depth of surface scratches. Analysis of the results included correlation of optical performance and particle area coverage, rank order (by coating or location), and the acceleration factor for abrasion damage. The efficacy of external cleaning was more readily distinguished from the effectiveness of antisoiling coatings. The acceleration factor for dry brush cleaning of a porous silica coating was found to be on the order of unity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dynamic Human-in-the-Loop Simulated Nuclear Power Plant Thermal Dispatch System Demonstration and Evaluation Study

An Idaho National Laboratory research team performed a human-in-the-loop study with two formerly licensed retired operators to evaluate thermal power dispatch operations supported by the modified GSE Systems GPWR plant simulator. Virtual representations of the analog control panels were presented on touch-screen bays configured to mimic the control room layout in the newly renovated Human Systems Simulation Laboratory. The operators performed 15 scenarios covering normal evolutions to transition the plant from full turbine operation to joint turbine and thermal power dispatch operations in addition to transient response scenarios induced with simulated faults to evaluate the impact of thermal power dispatch system on operator and plant responses. A prototype human-system interface (HSI) was developed and displayed in tandem with the virtual analog panels to support the operators executing the procedurally drive evolutions and transient responses. An interdisciplinary team of operations experts, nuclear engineers, and human factors experts observed the operators performing the scenarios to evaluate the operations. Only a preliminary analysis of the results has been performed. The full analysis will be shared in a milestone report scheduled for release at the end of September; however, some high-level conclusions were readily available. Two high level findings for the system design were captured in the study. The manual control supported by the HSI to transition from standard operations to thermal power dispatch operation imposed a considerable amount of workload on the operators due to tedious manual valve manipulations and system monitoring required to verify their intended effect. An additional operator would be required in the control room to support the daily evolution. Automatic control for the transition was deemed a requirement for plant adoption without imposing additional staffing costs. The second finding was the necessity for an automatic thermal power dispatch system trip isolation function linked to a turbine and reactor trip signal. The operators completed scenarios with automatic isolation functionality and manually required actuation of the thermal power dispatch system. The operator response was sufficiently slower in the manual trip condition, such that operators were unable to manually actuate key post trip safety functions an indicate a degraded control capability that should be avoided. With an automatic trip signal little to no impact of the thermal power dispatch system was identified on the primary plant response and therefore the system could be readily and safely adopted. Together these two findings represent the need to support the adoption of thermal power dispatch capability into existing operations by leveraging automation to augment any additional operator tasking required to control and monitor an additional system beyond existing operations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗