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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Emulating the Lyman-Alpha forest 1D power spectrum from cosmological simulations: new models and constraints from the eBOSS measurement

We present the Lyssa suite of high-resolution cosmological simulations of the Lyman-α forest designed for cosmological analyses. These 18 simulations have been run using the Nyx code with 40963 hydrodynamical cells in a 120 Mpc (∼ 81 Mpc/h) comoving box and individually provide sub-percent level convergence of the Lyman-α forest 1d flux power spectrum. We build a Gaussian process emulator for the Lyssa simulations in the lym1d likelihood framework to interpolate the power spectrum at arbitrary parameter values. We validate this emulator based on leave-one-out tests and based on the parameter constraints for simulations outside of the training set. We also perform comparisons with a previous emulator, showing a percent level accuracy and a good recovery of the expected cosmological parameters. Using this emulator we derive constraints on the linear matter power spectrum amplitude and slope parameters A Lyα and n Lyα . While the best-fit Planck ΛCDM model has A Lyα = 8.79 and n Lyα = -2.363, from DR14 eBOSS data we find that A Lyα < 7.6 (95% CI) and n Lyα = -2.369 ± 0.008. The low value of A Lyα , in tension with Planck, is driven by the correlation of this parameter with the mean transmission of the Lyman-α forest. This tension disappears when imposing a well-motivated external prior on this mean transmission, in which case we find A Lyα = 9.8 ± 1.1 in accordance with Planck.

Walther, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2024

Arctic Critical Infrastructure: Assessing and Predicting the Risk to Critical Permafrost Infrastructure from Climate Change: A New Thermomechanical Approach

This study presents the development of a computational framework designed to predict the interaction between permafrost and infrastructure, addressing potential failure modes and mitigation strategies in the context of climate change. The framework, rooted in advanced modeling and simulation (mod/sim) techniques, integrates thermomechanical coupling to account for the complex interplay between heat flow, ice content, and mechanical behavior in permafrost. Existing models fail to fully capture these dynamics, particularly as they relate to the effects of ice saturation on structural integrity. Our innovative Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) framework fills this gap by coupling thermal and mechanical models to accurately simulate subsidence and deformation in permafrost environments. We applied the ACE framework to a representative runway, demonstrating its capability to predict settlement due to rising temperatures and subsequent permafrost thaw. This proof-of-concept showcases the potential of the framework to evaluate risks to Arctic infrastructure, which supports over four million people and 70% of existing permafrost-based structures. By simulating various infrastructure types and environmental conditions, our research offers insights into failure mechanisms and evaluates structural solutions to mitigate risk. The anticipated deliverables, including a prototype runway exemplar, position this project as a critical advancement in permafrost infrastructure modeling, with applications in national security and resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

AI-Based Analytics and Energy Modeling Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

Developing location-specific district energy models is essential for understanding energy patterns and supporting efficient management and planning decisions. However, accurately characterizing these models remains challenging due to gaps in building characteristics and labor-intensive traditional modeling workflows. To address these challenges, we develop an AI-based framework that integrates top-down and bottom-up building energy data to automate urban energy model characterization. The framework trains multimodal deep learning models using heterogeneous ResStockTM datasets to infer missing building characteristics from varying levels of known information and generate simulation-ready inputs for district-scale energy modeling. It also employs a conditioning-based injection approach to generate ”what-if” scenarios, enabling users to explore retrofit, efficiency, and technology-upgrade pathways. Integrated within URBANoptTM, a bottom-up district energy modeling platform for simulating co-located buildings, the framework infers detailed building-level inputs required for bottom-up simulations. Both localized and generalized AI models are developed to learn relationships across categorical, numerical, and time-series data, enabling reconstruction of missing attributes and generation of targeted upgrade scenarios. We demonstrate this methodology on a residential neighborhood in Baltimore, MD, assessing internal consistency against ResStock reference data and URBANopt simulation, and comparing selected attributes against real-world building characteristics. Results show strong overall predictive accuracy in data completion and scenario generation, with localized and generalized models offering complementary trade-offs between precision and scalability. Overall, our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable framework for urban building energy characterization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

A forward modeling approach to analyzing galaxy clustering with S IM BIG

We present cosmological constraints from a simulation-based inference (SBI) analysis of galaxy clustering from the SimBIG forward modeling framework. SimBIG leverages the predictive power of high-fidelity simulations and provides an inference framework that can extract cosmological information on small nonlinear scales. In this work, we apply SimBIG to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) CMASS galaxy sample and analyze the power spectrum, P ℓ (k), to k max = 0.5 h/Mpc. We construct 20,000 simulated galaxy samples using our forward model, which is based on 2,000 high-resolution Quijote N -body simulations and includes detailed survey realism for a more complete treatment of observational systematics. We then conduct SBI by training normalizing flows using the simulated samples and infer the posterior distribution of ΛCDM cosmological parameters: Ω m , Ω b , h, n s , σ 8 . We derive significant constraints on Ω m and σ 8 , which are consistent with previous works. Our constraint on σ 8 is 27% more precise than standard P ℓ analyses because we exploit additional cosmological information on nonlinear scales beyond the limit of current analytic models, k > 0.25 h/Mpc. This improvement is equivalent to the statistical gain expected from a standard P ℓ analysis of galaxy sample ~ 60% larger than CMASS. While we focus on P ℓ in this work for validation and comparison to the literature, SimBIG provides a framework for analyzing galaxy clustering using any summary statistic. We expect further improvements on cosmological constraints from subsequent SimBIG analyses of summary statistics beyond P ℓ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Equilibrium Solid–Liquid Interfaces under Effective Constant Chemical Potential Using Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

The chemical potential (μ) of species in solution is essential for understanding various chemical processes at interfaces. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, constrained by fixed compositions, cannot maintain constant chemical potential with reference to a targeted concentration or chemical potential under nonequilibrium or dynamic conditions, as solute species can migrate to the interface and deplete (or enrich) the bulk due to solute-interface interactions. In this study, we introduce a simple and computationally efficient approach named iterative quasi-constant chemical potential molecular dynamics (iqCμMD) simulation, which helps simulate targeted molar concentrations of species in solution. iqCμMD overcomes the limitations of conventional MD by adjusting the number of species in the solution to reach a target bulk concentration (chemical potential), which allows simulation of the interface under the bulk conditions comparable to experiment. We demonstrate our approach using machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP)-based MD simulations of the Na 2 SO 4,aq –graphene interface, and to show the transferability of our approach, we also perform classical force field-based MD simulations of NaCl aq –air and NaCl aq –graphite interfaces, which produce comparable results to previous CμMD simulations. Our results also show that the iqCμMD approach efficiently achieves the desired bulk ion concentration within two iterations, and by utilizing MLIPs, we can achieve converged results using relatively small-scale simulations compared to previous CμMD simulations. By combining iqCμMD with MLIP-driven simulations, solid–liquid interfaces can be modeled under an effective constant chemical potential with DFT-level accuracy. Here, we show that iqCμMD offers a robust and simple computational framework for constant chemical potential simulations, as its only requirement is to be able to converge interfacial simulations with a measurable bulk region.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ice Supersaturation Variability in Cirrus Clouds: Role of Vertical Wind Speeds and Deposition Coefficients

Abstract Aircraft measurements reveal ice supersaturation statistics in cirrus (ISSs) with broad maxima around ice saturation and pronounced variance. In this study, processes shaping ISSs in midlatitude and tropical upper tropospheric conditions are systematically investigated. Water vapor deposition and sublimation of size‐resolved ice crystal populations are simulated in an air parcel framework. Mesoscale temperature fluctuations (MTFs) due to gravity waves force the temporal evolution of supersaturation. Various levels of background wave forcing and cirrus thickness are distinguished in stochastic ensemble simulations. Kinetic limitations to ice mass growth are brought about by supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients that represent efficient and inefficient growth modes as a function of ice crystal size. The simulations identify a wide range of deposition coefficients in cirrus, but most values stay above 0.01 such that kinetic limitations to water uptake remain moderate. Supersaturation quenching times are long, typically 0.5–2 hr. The wave forcing thus causes a remarkably large variability in ISSs and cirrus microphysical properties except in the thickest cirrus, producing ensemble‐mean ISSs in line with in‐situ measurements. ISS variance is controlled by MTFs and increases with decreasing cirrus integral radii. In comparison, the impact of ice crystal growth rates on ISSs is small. These results contribute to efforts directed at identifying and solving issues associated with ice‐supersaturated areas and non‐equilibrium cirrus physics in global models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optically Induced Anisotropy in Time-Resolved Scattering: Imaging Molecular-Scale Structure and Dynamics in Disordered Media with Experiment and Theory

Time-resolved scattering experiments enable imaging of materials at the molecular scale with femtosecond time resolution. However, in disordered media they provide access to just one radial dimension thus limiting the study of orientational structure and dynamics. Here we introduce a rigorous and practical theoretical framework for predicting and interpreting experiments combining optically induced anisotropy and time-resolved scattering. Using impulsive nuclear Raman and ultrafast x-ray scattering experiments of chloroform and simulations, we demonstrate that this framework can accurately predict and elucidate both the spatial and temporal features of these experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification for Bayesian active learning in rupture life prediction of ferritic steels

Abstract Three probabilistic methodologies are developed for predicting the long-term creep rupture life of 9–12 wt%Cr ferritic-martensitic steels using their chemical and processing parameters. The framework developed in this research strives to simultaneously make efficient inference along with associated risk, i.e., the uncertainty of estimation. The study highlights the limitations of applying probabilistic machine learning to model creep life and provides suggestions as to how this might be alleviated to make an efficient and accurate model with the evaluation of epistemic uncertainty of each prediction. Based on extensive experimentation, Gaussian Process Regression yielded more accurate inference ( $$Pearson\;correlation\;coefficent> 0.95$$ P e a r s o n c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c e n t > 0.95 for the holdout test set) in addition to meaningful uncertainty estimate (i.e., coverage ranges from 94 to 98% for the test set) as compared to quantile regression and natural gradient boosting algorithm. Furthermore, the possibility of an active learning framework to iteratively explore the material space intelligently was demonstrated by simulating the experimental data collection process. This framework can be subsequently deployed to improve model performance or to explore new alloy domains with minimal experimental effort.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2016

TESSIM: A Simulator for the Athena-X-IFU

We present the design of tessim, a simulator for the physics of transition edge sensors developed in the framework of the Athena end to end simulation effort. Designed to represent the general behavior of transition edge sensors and to provide input for engineering and science studies for Athena, tessim implements a numerical solution of the linearized equations describing these devices. The simulation includes a model for the relevant noise sources and several implementations of possible trigger algorithms. Input and output of the software are standard FITS-les which can be visualized and processed using standard X-ray astronomical tool packages. Tessim is freely available as part of the SIXTE package (http:www.sternwarte.uni-erlangen.deresearchsixte).

simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deactivation of Cu-Exchanged Automotive-Emission NH 3 -SCR Catalysts Elucidated with Nanoscale Resolution Using Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy

To gain insight into the underlying mechanisms of catalyst durability for the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) of NO x with an ammonia reductant, we employed scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) to study Cu-exchanged zeolites with the CHA and MFI framework structures before and after simulated 135 000-mile aging. X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) measurements were performed at the Al K- and Cu L-edges. The local environment of framework Al, the oxidation state of Cu, and geometric changes were analyzed, showing a multi-factor-induced catalytic deactivation. In Cu-exchanged MFI, a transformation of Cu II to Cu I and Cu x O y was observed. We also found a spatial correlation between extra-framework Al and deactivated Cu species near the surface of the zeolite as well as a weak positive correlation between the amount of CuI and tri-coordinated Al. By inspecting both Al and Cu in fresh and aged Cu-exchanged zeolites, we conclude that the importance of the preservation of isolated Cu II sites trumps that of Brønsted acid sites for NH 3 -SCR activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated, Interoperable Software Environment for Fusion Simulation and Data Analysis Tools SBIR Phase II

This SBIR effort was focused on developing a production ready system to address the integration and interoperability challenges with analysis and visualization in fusion simulations. Our overarching technical objective was to minimize the code development simulation scientists incur when coupling their simulation codes with different analysis frameworks. To this end, we developed an open-source software library to make data exchange between application easier and a Web application to manage and display analysis extracts from simulations. We have also augmented existing libraries funded by DOE such as ADIOS and VTK-m. When used together, these make it significantly easier to integrate simulation and analysis capability. We demonstrated the flexibility of our approach using two common simulation codes in the fusion community, XGC1 and GTC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proactive Frequency Stability Scheme: A Distributed Framework Based on Particle Filters and Synchrophasors

The reactive nature of traditional under-frequency load shedding schemes can lead to delayed response and unnecessary loss of load. This work presents a proactive framework for power system frequency stability. Bayesian filters and synchrophasors are leveraged to produce predictions after disturbances are detected. By being able to estimate the future state of frequency corrective actions can be taken before the system reaches a critical condition. This proactive approach makes it possible to optimize the response to a disturbance, which results in a decrease in the amount of compensation utilized. The framework is tested via Matlab simulations based on Kundur’s Two-Area System, and the IEEE 14-Bus System. Performance metrics are provided and evaluated against other contemporary solutions found in literature. During testing this framework outperformed other solutions by drastically reducing the amount of load dropped during compensation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

From pools to flow: The PROMISE framework for new insights on soil carbon cycling in a changing world

Soils represent the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, and the balance between soil organic carbon (SOC) formation and loss will drive powerful carbon-climate feedbacks over the coming century. To date, efforts to predict SOC dynamics have rested on pool-based models, which assume classes of SOC with internally homogenous physicochemical properties. However, emerging evidence suggests that soil carbon turnover is not dominantly controlled by the chemistry of carbon inputs, but rather by restrictions on microbial access to organic matter in the spatially heterogeneous soil environment. The dynamic processes that control the physicochemical protection of carbon translate poorly to pool-based SOC models; as a result, we are challenged to mechanistically predict how environmental change will impact movement of carbon between soils and the atmosphere. In this study, we propose a novel conceptual framework to explore controls on belowground carbon cycling: Probabilistic Representation of Organic Matter Interactions within the Soil Environment (PROMISE). In contrast to traditional model frameworks, PROMISE does not attempt to define carbon pools united by common thermodynamic or functional attributes. Rather, the PROMISE concept considers how SOC cycling rates are governed by the stochastic processes that influence the proximity between microbial decomposers and organic matter, with emphasis on their physical location in the soil matrix. We illustrate the applications of this framework with a new biogeochemical simulation model that traces the fate of individual carbon atoms as they interact with their environment, undergoing biochemical transformations and moving through the soil pore space. We also discuss how the PROMISE framework reshapes dialogue around issues related to SOC management in a changing world. We intend the PROMISE framework to spur the development of new hypotheses, analytical tools, and model structures across disciplines that will illuminate mechanistic controls on the flow of carbon between plant, soil, and atmospheric pools.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Framework for Optimal Placement of Rooftop Photovoltaic: Maximizing Solar Production and Operational Cost Savings in Residential Communities

Optimizing the placement of photovoltaic (PV) panels on residential buildings has the potential to significantly increase energy efficiency benefits to both homeowners and communities. Strategic PV placement can lower electricity costs by reducing the electricity fed from the grid during on-peak hours, while maintaining PV panel efficiency in terms of the amount of solar radiation received. In this article, we present a framework that identifies the ideal location of PV panels on residential rooftops. Our framework combines energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to inform PV placement as it relates to and affects the entire community (in terms of both energy use and financial cost), as well as individual buildings. Ensuring that our framework accounts for shading from nearby buildings, different utility rate structures, and different buildings’ energy demand profiles means that existing communities and future housing developments can be optimized for energy savings and PV efficiency. The framework comprises two workflows, each contributing to optimal PV placement with a unique target: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency (i.e., solar generation) and (b) minimizing operational energy cost considering utility rate structures for operational energy. We apply our framework to a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to demonstrate the optimal PV placement, considering the two workflow targets. Here, we present our results and illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Molecular origin of negative lithium transference in electrolytes with star-shaped multivalent anions

Large-scale molecular dynamics simulations illustrate that highly correlated cation–anion motion leads to negative t 0+ on the order of 1 in lithium electrolytes with star-shaped multivalent anions. Large multivalent anions have gained increasing attention for their potential to improve lithium transference in electrolytes. We employ large-scale molecular dynamics simulations based on the Onsager transport framework to investigate ion transport in a lithium electrolyte with star-shaped multivalent anions. The simulations show that t 0+, the cation transference number with respect to solvent velocity, is negative over a wide range of concentration. This is consistent with experimental data reported previously. The simulation-based Onsager transport coefficients reveal that the magnitudes of the cation–cation, anion–anion, and cation–anion correlations are comparable, a signature of highly correlated motion in the electrolyte. Examination of the cation solvation environment indicates the presence of strong cation–anion association across the entire concentration range, which leads to negative t 0+ on the order of −1. Both simulation and experiment also show that the maximum value of t 0+ reaches 0 when the cation concentration is c + = 0.4 M. This is the concentration at which the anions begin to spatially overlap, and lithium ions serve as dynamic linkers to balance cation–cation and cation–anion correlations. Our results provide molecular-level insights into the origin of transference in multivalent electrolytes.

Fang, Chao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strongly Anharmonic Phonons and Their Role in Superionic Diffusion and Ultralow Thermal Conductivity of Cu 7 PSe 6

We report the quest for advanced superionic materials requires understanding their complex atomic dynamics, but detailed studies of the interplay between lattice vibrations and ionic diffusion remain scarce. Here inelastic and quasielastic neutron scattering measurements in the superionic argyrodite Cu 7 PSe 6 are reported, combined with molecular dynamics (MD) based on ab initio and machine-learned potentials, providing critical insights into the atomistic mechanisms underlying fast ion conduction. The results reveal how long-range Cu diffusion is limited by intercluster hopping, controlled by selective anharmonic phonons of the crystalline framework. Further, the Green–Kubo simulations reproduce the ultralow lattice thermal conductivity and identify contributions from mobile ions, phonons, and their cross-correlations. The mode resolved analysis shows that the thermal conductivity is dominated by low-energy acoustic phonon modes of the overall crystal framework. The analysis of mode-resolved spectral functions further show that vibrational modes with significant Cu contributions are strongly damped, corresponding to the breakdown of associated phonon quasiparticles. These results highlight the importance of strongly anharmonic effects in superionic systems, in which the traditional quasiharmonic phonon picture is insufficient, and pave the way toward combining machine-learning accelerated simulations with neutron scattering experiments to rationalize the complex atomic dynamics underlying ionic and thermal transport.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Repulsive expansion dynamics in colony growth and gene expression

Spatial expansion of a population of cells can arise from growth of microorganisms, plant cells, and mammalian cells. It underlies normal or dysfunctional tissue development, and it can be exploited as the foundation for programming spatial patterns. This expansion is often driven by continuous growth and division of cells within a colony, which in turn pushes the peripheral cells outward. This process generates a repulsion velocity field at each location within the colony. Here we show that this process can be approximated as coarse-grained repulsive-expansion kinetics. This framework enables accurate and efficient simulation of growth and gene expression dynamics in radially symmetric colonies with homogenous z-directional distribution. It is robust even if cells are not spherical and vary in size. The simplicity of the resulting mathematical framework also greatly facilitates generation of mechanistic insights.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a MOOSE thermal model of the MPC-32 canister and HI-STORM overpack

Nuclear power is a significant source of electricity in the United States, but the average age of nuclear power plants is around 40 years old. Safe management of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is a key aspect of the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, and SNF dry storage systems are becoming a popular, effective solution in this area, given the absence of a final disposal system. The spent fuel cask system (dry cask method) provides a feasible solution for maintaining SNF (~60 years) prior to final disposal. This project aims to develop a thermal model of the MPC-32 canister and HI-STORM overpack, using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). MOOSE is an open-source framework developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for multiscale, multiphysics simulations. This study will investigate and demonstrate the thermal-hydraulics capabilities of the MOOSE framework, including natural circulation, heat transfer, porous flows, etc. The ultimate goal of the project is to verify whether MOOSE tools (including Pronghorn) can be used to study the thermal performance of the SNF dry cask storage system. This study provides reliable and inclusive solving strategy for dry cask problems. The detailed information about the solving scheme and the governing equations related to the physics of the system is provided in the report. The results for thermal-hydraulic analysis of the HI-STORM system is produced with using open source modules of the MOOSE framework. This results highlights the flexibility and modularity of the MOOSE which makes it a unique candidate for the frameworks and code packages. Therefore, integration of the MOOSE to UNF ST&DARDS will improve the thermal-hydraulic capability of the system while providing distinctive features to users.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗