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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Reference Model 1 Scaled Geometry (RM1: Tidal Current Turbine)

Contains the Reference Model 1 (RM1) scaled scale geometry files of the Tidal Current Turbine, developed by the Reference Model Project (RMP). These scaled geometry files are saved as SolidWorks assembly, IGS, and STEP files, and require a CAD program to view. The scaled RM1 device was tested at the Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory (SAFL) at the University of Minnesota flume, details of which are described in the included journal article. The scale of the geometries included in this submission are at a 1:40 scale compared to the full scale geometry. This data was generated upon completion of the project on September 30, 2014. The Reference Model Project (RMP), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was a partnered effort to develop open-source MHK point designs as reference models (RMs) to benchmark MHK technology performance and costs, and an open-source methodology for design and analysis of MHK technologies, including models for estimating their capital costs, operational costs, and levelized costs of energy. The point designs also served as open-source test articles for university researchers and commercial technology developers. The RMP project team, led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), included a partnership between DOE, three national laboratories, including the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the Applied Research Laboratory of Penn State University, and Re Vision Consulting. Reference Model 1 (RM1) is a dual variable-speed variable-pitch (VSVP) axial-flow tidal turbine device, designed for the Tacoma Narrows tidal current energy resource site in Puget Sound, Washington. RM1 comprises a monopile foundation and a crossarm assembly to mount the two rotors. The cross-arm assembly is nearly neutrally buoyant so the attached rotors can be recovered and redeployed with a minimal amount of lifting crane capacity; therefore, the design minimizes the handling requirements during deployment and recovery, which reduces overall cost in all O&M activities including access to the power conversion chain (PCC).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scale sensitivity of ethanol production via consolidated bioprocessing with consideration of feedstock cost

We examine feedstock cost and minimum selling price for ethanol production from corn stover as a function of scale, stover yield, participation rate, and price incentives for two conversion technologies: a conventional base case featuring thermochemical pretreatment with added cellulase, and an advanced case featuring consolidated bioprocessing with cotreatment (C-CBP). Delivered feedstock cost ranged from $\$85$ Mg −1 at small (10 million gallons year −1 or ~38 million L year −1 ) scale with high yield and participation rates to $\$124$ Mg −1 at large scale (60 million gallons year −1 or 227 million L year −1 ) and low yield and participation rates. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) was approximately twofold lower for the advanced case compared with the base case. The payback period was several times lower for the advanced case compared with the base case, with increasing disparity at smaller scales, and was highly sensitive to ethanol price supports. For both C-CBP and the conventional processing paradigm, MESP decreased with increasing scale, indicating that the cost penalty due to higher feedstock transport distances was more than outweighed by lower capital costs. However, the cost penalty for operation at small scale, expressed in $ gallon −1 ethanol, is lower for C-CBP than for the conventional paradigm by roughly twofold. Particularly for initial applications of C-CBP, we speculate that this cost penalty will likely be modest compared with the anticipated benefits of small-scale operation such as increased opportunity to use existing infrastructure, easier plant siting and supply chain establishment, and lower total investment required.

biorefinery scale↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental validation of the mechanistic scale-up methodology of gas–solid spouted beds using radioactive particle tracking (RPT)

The very high-temperature reactors (VHTRs) are highly ranked among candidates of Generation IV of nuclear reactors due to their high efficiency, safety, the resistance to proliferation, and reliability. The VHTRs are preferentially fueled by Tristructural-isometric (TRISO) coated fuel particles which has fuel kernels of fissile material coated by four coating layers: a porous buffer pyrolysis carbon layer (buffer PyC), an inner dense pyrolysis carbon layer (IPyC), a silicon carbide layer (SiC) and an outer dense pyrolysis carbon layer (OPyC). The heart of the operation and safety of the VHTRs significantly depends on the reliability of the coating layers of TRISO particles to retain metallic and gaseous fission products within the particles. The technique used for coating TRISO particles are gas-solids spouted beds via chemical vapor deposition (CVD). Fabrication of high-quality low-defect TRISO fuel particles fuel at larger scale spouted beds is required to support the commercialization of the VHTRs. In this work, our new developed mechanistic scale-up methodology of gas-solids spouted beds based on matching the radial profile of gas-holdup has been demonstrated and validated using radioactive particle tracking (RPT). Two spouted beds of small and larger scales were used in the study. Three sets of conditions were carried out which include the conditions of the reference case in the large scale, conditions that provide similar gas holdup radial profile to that of the reference case and conditions that provided dissimilar gas holdup radial in the small-scale spouted beds. The results confirm the validation of the scale-up methodology in terms of the dimensionless values of the spout diameter, cumulative probability distribution of the solids particles penetration into the spout, fraction of cycle time in each region of the bed, the radial profiles of the dimensionless values of the root-mean-square particle velocities and solids eddy diffusivity. Finally, the results further advance the knowledge and understanding of the gas-solids spouted beds provide deeper insight into their solids dynamics and presenting important benchmarking data for validating computational fluid dynamics codes and models. At last, procedures are established for the implementation of the new scale-up methodology.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Use of 1–4 interaction scaling factors to control the conformational equilibrium between α-helix and β-strand

Highlights: • 1–4 interaction scaling factors are used to adjust conformational energy. • This article reports the effects of these factors on protein conformations. • Reducing these factors changes a helix to a strand in molecular dynamics simulation. • Increasing these factors causes the reverse conformational change. • These factors control the conformational equilibrium between helix and strand. - Abstract: 1–4 interaction scaling factors are used in AMBER forcefields to reduce the exaggeration of short-range repulsion caused by the 6–12 Lennard-Jones potential and a nonpolarizable charge model and to obtain better agreements of small-molecule conformational energies with experimental data. However, the effects of these scaling factors on protein secondary structure conformations have not been investigated until now. This article reports the finding that the 1–4 interactions among the protein backbone atoms separated by three consecutive covalent bonds are more repulsive in the α-helix conformation than in two β-strand conformations. Therefore, the 1–4 interaction scaling factors of protein backbone torsions ϕ and ψ control the conformational equilibrium between α-helix and β-strand. Molecular dynamics simulations confirm that reducing the ϕ and ψ scaling factors readily converts the α-helix conformation of AcO-(AAQAA){sub 3}-NH{sub 2} to a β-strand conformation, and the reverse occurs when these scaling factors are increased. These results suggest that the ϕ and ψ scaling factors can be used to generate the α-helix or β-strand conformation in situ and to control the propensities of a forcefield for adopting secondary structure elements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multi-length-scale investigation of the applicability of ductility laws for annealed and work-hardened copper

Small-scale mechanical testing provides unique advantages over conventional testing in investigating the mechanical response of nuclear materials. While small-scale testing enables accelerated materials research, it raises the question of comparability to large-scale properties for engineering design considerations. Among different mechanical properties for structural design considerations such as yield and ultimate tensile stress, ductility is of critical importance with respect to structural component health. The effectiveness of using small-scale mechanical testing for probing these mechanical properties is dictated by understanding how the mechanical responses translate from the microscale to the engineering scale. Therefore, a better understanding of size scaling effects via gathering and analysis of experimental data is required to bridge length-scales. Further, this work builds upon previous reports to provide statistical data on how mechanical response changes as the size of the specimens are reduced from conventional sizes. One hundred twenty mesoscale tensile coupons of oxygen-free high thermal conductivity (OFHC) copper in work-hardened and annealed state have been manufactured using micro-wire electrical discharge machining (EDM) and tested under uniaxial tension. The mesoscale specimens have dimensions dictated by pre-selected geometric ratios (i.e., gauge section length over the square root of the cross-section area) with gauge length dimensions of 3 mm (or less) and sub-millimeter gauge widths and thicknesses. The mesoscale responses were compared to bulkscale properties to reveal the effect of specimen size on the mechanical response as a function of grain size and material state for a single phase face-centered cubic metal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mutually beneficial outcomes for hydropower expansion and environmental protection at a basin scale

Reshaping the scale of planning for hydropower development, from reaches to basin-scales, has been recommended as a more effective way to ameliorate the environmental impacts of hydropower. One approach is identifying mutually exclusive areas where development is precluded for conservation purposes and areas of low conservation value that present fewer barriers to development. This strategy, however, is less adoptable in developed countries where hydropower is already widespread and large-scale construction of new dams is unlikely. To broaden the adoption of basin-scale planning, alternative approaches and planning tools are needed for identifying mutually beneficial opportunities for simultaneous increases in hydropower capacity while improving environmental conditions. In this study, we present the Basin Scale Opportunity Assessment as a methodology to improve environmental conditions through either direct (on-site) or indirect (off-site) mitigation. We assess whether direct or indirect mitigation activities lead to optimal results in terms of added hydropower, environmental improvement, and monetary cost at a basin scale. We present two case studies for the Connecticut River and Roanoke River Basins, USA. Significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generating capacity are numerous in both basins. Results suggest that total hydropower capacity could be increased 4 to 7 % in the Roanoke and Connecticut Basins, respectively, without new dam construction and with net improvements in environmental conditions. We found that environmentally and economically optimal win-win strategies for increasing hydropower capacity and improving environmental conditions included improving environmental conditions in rivers downstream of existing dams. Off-site mitigation opportunities, such as dam removal and wetland mitigation, were identified as optimum solutions for achieving net environmental improvements only when they were associated with new hydropower construction. Our results demonstrate that opportunities to increase hydropower capacity and improve environmental conditions are expanded by viewing cumulative benefits at basin scales; however, increasing regulatory flexibility may be required to realize these opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive scale-bridging simulations through active learning

Throughout computational science, there is a growing need to utilize the continual improvements in raw computational horsepower to achieve greater physical fidelity through scale-bridging over brute-force increases in the number of mesh elements. For instance, quantitative predictions of transport in nanoporous media, critical to hydrocarbon extraction from tight shale formations, are impossible without accounting for molecular-level interactions. Similarly, inertial confinement fusion simulations rely on numerical diffusion to simulate molecular effects such as non-local transport and mixing without truly accounting for molecular interactions. With these two disparate applications in mind, we develop a novel capability which uses an active learning approach to optimize the use of local fine-scale simulations for informing coarse-scale hydrodynamics. Our approach addresses three challenges: forecasting continuum coarse-scale trajectory to speculatively execute new fine-scale molecular dynamics calculations, dynamically updating coarse-scale from fine-scale calculations, and quantifying uncertainty in neural network models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

CODEX: Role of velocity substructure in the scaling relations of galaxy clusters

The use of galaxy clusters as cosmological probes relies on a detailed understanding of their properties. They define cluster selection and ranking linked to a cosmologically significant cluster mass function. Previous studies have employed small samples of clusters, concentrating on achieving the first calibrations of cluster properties with mass, while the diversity of cluster properties has been revealed via detailed studies. The large spectroscopic follow-up on the CODEX cluster sample with SDSS and NOT enables a detailed study of hundreds of clusters, lifting the limitations of previous samples. We aim to update the spectroscopic cluster identification of CODEX by running the spectroscopic group finder on the follow-up spectroscopy results and connecting the dynamical state of clusters to their scaling relations. We implemented a reproducible spectroscopic membership determination and cleaning procedures, based on the redMaPPer membership, running the spectroscopic group finder on the follow-up spectroscopy results and cleaning the membership for spectroscopic outliers. We applied the Anderson-Darling test for velocity substructure and analysed its influence on the scaling relations. We also tested the effect of the X-ray-to-optical centre offset on the scaling relations. We report on the scaling relations between richness, X-ray luminosity, and velocity dispersion for a complete sample of clusters with at least 15 members. Clusters with velocity substructure exhibit enhanced velocity dispersion for a given richness and are characterized by 2.5 times larger scatter. Clusters that have a strong offset in X-ray-to-optical centres have comparable scaling relations as clusters with substructure. We demonstrate that there is a consistency in the parameters of the scaling relations for the low- and high-richness galaxy clusters. Splitting the clusters by redshift, we note a decrease in scatter with redshift in all scaling relations. We localize the redshift range where a high scatter is observed to z < 0.15, which is in agreement with the literature results on the scatter. We note that the increase in scatter for both high- and low-luminosity clusters is z < 0.15, suggesting that both cooling and the resulting active galactic nucleus feedback are at the root of this scatter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

ForestFlow: predicting the Lyman-α forest clustering from linear to nonlinear scales

On large scales, the Lyman-α forest provides insights into the expansion history of the Universe, while on small scales, it imposes strict constraints on the growth history, the nature of dark matter, and the sum of neutrino masses. This work introduces ForestFlow, a novel framework that bridges the gap between large- and small-scale analyses, which have traditionally relied on distinct modeling approaches. Using conditional normalizing flows, ForestFlow predicts the two Lyman-α linear biases (b δ and b η ) and six parameters describing small-scale deviations of the three-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 3D ) from linear theory as a function of cosmology and intergalactic medium physics. These are then combined with a Boltzmann solver to make consistent predictions, from arbitrarily large scales down to the nonlinear regime, for P 3D and any other statistics derived from it. Trained on a suite of 30 fixed-and-paired cosmological hydrodynamical simulations spanning redshifts from z = 2 to 4.5, ForestFlow achieves 3 and 1.5% precision in describing P 3D and the one-dimensional flux power spectrum (P 1D ) from linear scales to k = 5 Mpc −1 and k ∥ = 4 Mpc −1 , respectively. Thanks to its conditional parameterization, ForestFlow shows similar performance for ionization histories and two ΛCDM model extensions – massive neutrinos and curvature – even though none of these are included in the training set. This framework will enable full-scale cosmological analyses of Lyman-α forest measurements from the DESI survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Multi-scale gravity and cosmology

The gravitational dynamics and cosmological implications of three classes of recently introduced multi-scale spacetimes (with, respectively, ordinary, weighted and q-derivatives) are discussed. These spacetimes are non-Riemannian: the metric structure is accompanied by an independent measure-differential structure with the characteristics of a multi-fractal, namely, different dimensionality at different scales and, at ultra-short distances, a discrete symmetry known as discrete scale invariance. Under this minimal paradigm, five general features arise: (a) the big-bang singularity can be replaced by a finite bounce, (b) the cosmological constant problem is reinterpreted, since accelerating phases can be mimicked by the change of geometry with the time scale, without invoking a slowly rolling scalar field, (c) the discreteness of geometry at Planckian scales can leave an observable imprint of logarithmic oscillations in cosmological spectra and (d) give rise to an alternative mechanism to inflation or (e) to a fully analytic model of cyclic mild inflation, where near scale invariance of the perturbation spectrum can be produced without strong acceleration. Various properties of the models and exact dynamical solutions are discussed. In particular, the multi-scale geometry with weighted derivatives is shown to be a Weyl integrable spacetime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on S 8 from a full-scale and full-shape analysis of redshift-space clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in BOSS

ABSTRACT We present a novel simulation-based cosmological analysis of galaxy–galaxy lensing and galaxy redshift-space clustering. Compared to analysis methods based on perturbation theory, our simulation-based approach allows us to probe a much wider range of scales, $0.4 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ to $63 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$, including highly non-linear scales, and marginalizes over astrophysical effects such as assembly bias. We apply this framework to data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey LOWZ sample cross-correlated with state-of-the-art gravitational lensing catalogues from the Kilo Degree Survey and the Dark Energy Survey. We show that gravitational lensing and redshift-space clustering when analysed over a large range of scales place tight constraints on the growth-of-structure parameter $S_8 = \sigma _8 \sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m} / 0.3}$. Overall, we infer S8 = 0.792 ± 0.022 when analysing the combination of galaxy–galaxy lensing and projected galaxy clustering and S8 = 0.771 ± 0.027 for galaxy redshift-space clustering. These findings highlight the potential constraining power of full-scale studies over studies analysing only large scales and also showcase the benefits of analysing multiple large-scale structure surveys jointly. Our inferred values for S8 fall below the value inferred from the CMB, S8 = 0.834 ± 0.016. While this difference is not statistically significant by itself, our results mirror other findings in the literature whereby low-redshift large-scale structure probes infer lower values for S8 than the CMB, the so-called S8-tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large scale structure reconstruction with short-wavelength modes

Large scale density modes are difficult to measure because they are sensitive to systematic observational errors in galaxy surveys, but we can study them indirectly by observing their impact on small scale perturbations. Cosmological perturbation theory predicts that second-order density inhomogeneities are a convolution of a short- and a long-wavelength mode. This arises physically because small scale structures grow at different rates depending on the large scale environment in which they reside. This induces an off-diagonal term in the two-point statistics in Fourier space that we use as the basis for a quadratic estimator for the large scale field. Here, we demonstrate that this quadratic estimator works well on an N-body simulation of size (2.5 h -1 Gpc) 3 . In particular, the quadratic estimator successfully reconstructs the long-wavelength modes using only small-scale information. This opens up novel opportunities to study structure on the largest observable scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Physical meaning of one-machine and multimachine tokamak scalings

Specific features of energy confinement scalings constructed using different experimental databases for tokamak plasmas are considered. In the multimachine database, some pairs of engineering variables are collinear; e.g., the current I and the input power P both increase with increasing minor radius a. As a result, scalings derived from this database are reliable only for discharges in which such ratios as I/a{sup 2} or P/a{sup 2} are close to their values averaged over the database. The collinearity of variables allows one to exclude the normalized Debye radius d* from the scaling expressed in a nondimensional form. In one-machine databases, the dimensionless variables are functionally dependent, which allow one to cast a scaling without d*. In a database combined from two devices, the collinearity may be absent, so the Debye radius cannot generally be excluded from the scaling. It is shown that the experiments performed in support of the absence of d* in the two-machine scaling are unconvincing. Transformation expressions are given that allow one to compare experiments for the determination of scaling in any set of independent variables.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Projection of the High Temperature Electrolysis System in the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory using Dynamic System Scaling

For nuclear power to be flexible in a functioning Integrated Energy System (IES), excess produced heat must be stored or utilized during times of low power demand to ensure a load factor of 1 while load balancing. The Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) is one facility that is under development to emulate IES conditions on the engineering-scale, planned to conduct virtual real time operations with industry-scale facilities, and is currently testing thermal storage and high temperature electrolysis. As part of the study to develop a method to preprocess input signals or postprocess output signals between systems of different scales via Dynamical System Scaling (DSS), the current research is one of the continued efforts branching from the data projection activity conducted for the Thermal Energy Distribution System and currently engages the High Temperature Electrolysis (HTE) System in DETAIL. The HTE SOEC electrical, fluid, and thermal dynamics Figure of Merits (FOM) were identified, governing equations and closure relations were successfully scaled, and relations between FOM scaling ratios were determined. Setting the scaling objectives to reform existing data to project a data set that doubly accelerated the electrolysis process while preserving the produced amount of hydrogen was generated for the full transient. The calculated boundary conditions were inlet temperature, stack current, and inlet steam mass flow rate at 1470 K, 121.1 A, and 1.886 g/s, respectively. The research outcomes demonstrated an output signal postprocessing case accelerating the hydrogen production without changing geometry, number of cells, and partial pressures.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2014

Reference Model 3 Scaled Geometry (RM3: Wave Point Absorber)

Contains the Reference Model 3 (RM3) scaled scale geometry files of the Wave Point Absorber, developed by the Reference Model Project (RMP). These scaled geometry files are saved as SolidWorks assembly, IGS, and STEP files, and require a CAD program to view. The scaled RM3 device was tested at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego wave tank, details of which are described in the included test report. The scale of the geometries included in this submission are at a 1:33 scale compared to the full scale geometry. This data was generated upon completion of the project on September 30, 2014. The Reference Model Project (RMP), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was a partnered effort to develop open-source MHK point designs as reference models (RMs) to benchmark MHK technology performance and costs, and an open-source methodology for design and analysis of MHK technologies, including models for estimating their capital costs, operational costs, and levelized costs of energy. The point designs also served as open-source test articles for university researchers and commercial technology developers. The RMP project team, led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), included a partnership between DOE, three national laboratories, including the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the Applied Research Laboratory of Penn State University, and Re Vision Consulting. Reference Model 3 (RM3) is a wave point absorber, also referred to as a wave power buoy, that was designed for a reference site located off the shore of Eureka in Humboldt County, California. The design of the device consists of a surface float that translates (oscillates) with wave motion relative to a vertical column spar buoy, which connects to a subsurface reaction plate. This two-body point absorber converts wave energy into electrical power predominately from the device?s heave oscillation induced by incident waves; the float is designed to oscillate up and down the vertical shaft up to 4 m. The bottom of the reaction plate is about 35 m below the water surface. The device is targeted for deployment in water depths of 40 m to 100 m. The point absorber is also connected to a mooring system to keep the floating device in position.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2013

Potential Application Of Radionuclide Scaling Factors To High Level Waste Characterization

Production sources, radiological properties, relative solubilities in waste, and laboratory analysis techniques for the forty-five radionuclides identified in Hanford's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Feed Acceptance Data Quality Objectives (DQO) document are addressed in this report. Based on Savannah River Site (SRS) experience and waste characteristics, thirteen of the radionuclides are judged to be candidates for potential scaling in High Level Waste (HLW) based on the concentrations of other radionuclides as determined through laboratory measurements. The thirteen radionuclides conducive to potential scaling are: Ni-59, Zr-93, Nb-93m, Cd-113m, Sn-121m, Sn-126, Cs-135, Sm-151, Ra-226, Ra-228, Ac-227, Pa-231, and Th-229. The ability to scale radionuclides is useful from two primary perspectives: 1) it provides a means of checking the radionuclide concentrations that have been determined by laboratory analysis; and 2) it provides a means of estimating radionuclide concentrations in the absence of a laboratory analysis technique or when a complex laboratory analysis technique fails. Along with the rationale for identifying and applying the potential scaling factors, this report also provides examples of using the scaling factors to estimate concentrations of radionuclides in current SRS waste and into the future. Also included in the report are examples of independent laboratory analysis techniques that can be used to check results of key radionuclide analyses. Effective utilization of radionuclide scaling factors requires understanding of the applicable production sources and the chemistry of the waste. As such, the potential scaling approaches identified in this report should be assessed from the perspective of the Hanford waste before reaching a decision regarding WTP applicability.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale, Multi-disciplinary, and Multi-agent Explainable AI with Koopman-Undergirded Learning, Prediction, and Analysis (M3EA KULPA) (Project Closeout Report)

The goal of this project was to develop and use domain-aware machine learning formulations, based on the Koopman Operator (KO), for modelling multi-scale, multi-disciplinary (e.g., multi-physics), and/or multi-agent systems. The project developed these formulations for the following cases: • Systems with dynamics at two separate time scales, • Systems with a bi-level hierarchical control structure, • Systems with bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales (the lower level controls operating at the faster time scale), and • Systems with n separate but interacting agents/disciplines (with/without control, respectively); the controls for each agent could include bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales as described above. The project then defined a set of dynamical systems consisting of different nonlinear oscillators that could be used to test these different formulations and then subsequently learned the KO models for those systems. With the KO models, we were able to do the following: • Quantify system stability, including both long-term and transient behavior, • Quantify the effects of feedbacks between the different time scales and agents/disciplines in terms of those feedbacks’ effects on system stability, • Replace a standard Proportional-Integral (PI) control in the hierarchical control structure with a KO-based Linear-Quadratic Regular (LQR), a form of optimal control, • Calculate optimal supervisory control policies a) with and without time scale separated dynamics at the lower level control levels and b) with both PI and KO-based LQR lower level control policies, and • Calculate dynamic Nash equilibria for multi-agent systems where each agent makes its own control decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗