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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Energy and Security Interactions in Semiconductor Manufacturing: Insights from the Intel Minifab Model

Semiconductor manufacturing is a highly complex. Fabrication plants must deal with re-entrant flows to support multiple types of wafers being produced simultaneously, each with their own deadlines and specifications. The manufacturing process itself depends upon the ability to control and programmatically adjust a variety of environmental conditions including temperature, humidity, and air quality. In addition, wafer fabrication consumes large amounts of electricity. Emerging technologies may help reduce the energy footprint of such facilities but can introduce cybersecurity risks. Therefore, this paper presents a modeling and simulation framework to quantify tradeoffs between operational measures of performance, energy consumption, and cybersecurity controls. We augment the Intel Minifab model, with the Purdue Enterprise Reference Architecture (PERA) for cybersecurity as well as tool-level energy consumption data from a real-world semiconductor manufacturing testbed. In this manner, we intend to provide stakeholders with a systematic, data-driven approach to evaluate emerging risks within the manufacturing process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform: Technical Report 1

Due to continuing global energy market trends, driven heavily by the abundant preserves of natural gas, there is an immediate need to reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) for the current domestic nuclear power industry and for future reactor developments. This is to ensure that nuclear power generation remains an economically competitive and viable option in the energy market. O&M costs include labor-intensive preventive maintenance (PM) programs, which involve manually-performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequency and time-based replacement of assets, irrespective of their condition. This has resulted in an expensive, labor-centric business model to achieve high capacity factors. Fortunately, there are technologies (advanced sensors, data analytics, and risk assessment methodologies) that can enable the transition from a labor-centric business model to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will result in a significant reduction of PM activities, laying the foundation for real-time condition assessment of plant assets, reducing overall labor and part costs. To enable this transition, PKMJ Technical Services LLC is partnering with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (operated by the Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC) and the Public Services Enterprise Group (PSEG) Nuclear, LLC in the Integrated Risk-Informed Condition-Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform Project. In this report, the configuration of a digital cloud platform using Microsoft Azure is discussed, data from the PSEG Salem Nuclear Generating Station Units 1 & 2 are imported into a digital cloud platform, and the data is used for an evaluation of several key areas: cost impact analysis, risk-informed model development, and preventive maintenance strategy optimization. First, the cost impact analysis reviews which plant assets are potential good candidates for condition-based monitoring. Next, INL utilized the data in their local environment to develop the risk-informed model; which provides estimates of failure rates and probability of failures of assets based upon their past performance. The developed model is performed on assets selected from the cost impact analysis. Lastly, engineers assess the preventive maintenance strategy for the selected assets at PSEG against maintenance strategies in the nuclear industry for similar assets to potentially identify acceptable justification for the extension of current maintenance frequencies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Fast, Accurate Prediction for System-Wide Damage Due to Dynamic Wind Loading

The complex relationship between photovoltaic (PV) hardware configurations, overall system dynamics, and turbulent aerodynamic phenomena generates highly unsteady, non-uniform loads that can lead to damaging instabilities. These effects may result in glass breakage, cell cracking, and structural failures in frames and mounting systems, even under moderate wind conditions. Addressing industry concerns about premature system failures in field conditions deemed survivable, our research aims to develop a fast and accurate predictive model for system damage. This model integrates configurable hardware choices with advanced simulation tools to represent the overall system-specific dynamics effectively. Using this model, we predict responses under varying weather conditions and hardware setups, translating these predictions into pre-trained surrogate models capable of accurately identifying failure risks and rapidly testing new system hardening measures. In this presentation, we will showcase preliminary results in capturing system dynamics through our customizable library of PV hardware configurations. Additionally, we will highlight how these new tools build upon PVade's established wind load modeling capabilities and foster the development of advanced AI/ML surrogates for improving system robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2022

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk under off-nominal conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk likelihood of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The deviation in the planned trajectory caused due to wind is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic simulation model of the vehicle. Likelihood of risk for the flight plan is then analyzed based on generating the probability of collision for each point in the trajectory. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, distance from obstacles, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

Portia Banerjee↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial classification via distributional robustness with Wasserstein ambiguity

Abstract We study a model for adversarial classification based on distributionally robust chance constraints. We show that under Wasserstein ambiguity, the model aims to minimize the conditional value-at-risk of the distance to misclassification, and we explore links to adversarial classification models proposed earlier and to maximum-margin classifiers. We also provide a reformulation of the distributionally robust model for linear classification, and show it is equivalent to minimizing a regularized ramp loss objective. Numerical experiments show that, despite the nonconvexity of this formulation, standard descent methods appear to converge to the global minimizer for this problem. Inspired by this observation, we show that, for a certain class of distributions, the only stationary point of the regularized ramp loss minimization problem is the global minimizer.

Ho-Nguyen, Nam (ORCID:0000000344647730)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future

This manuscript discusses the challenges in detecting and attributing recently observed trends in the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and the epistemic uncertainty we face in assessing future risk. We use synthetic storms downscaled from five CMIP5 models by the Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ), and directly simulated storms from high-resolution climate models. We examine three aspects of recent TC activity: the upward trend and multi-decadal oscillation of the annual frequency, the increase in storm wind intensity, and the decrease in forward speed. Some data sets suggest that these trends and oscillation are forced while others suggest that they can be explained by natural variability. Projections under warming climate scenarios also show a wide range of possibilities, especially for the annual frequencies, which increase or decrease depending on the choice of moisture variable used in the CHAZ model and on the choice of climate model. The uncertainties in the annual frequency lead to epistemic uncertainties in TC risk assessment. Here, we investigate the potential for reduction of these epistemic uncertainties through a statistical practice, namely likelihood analysis. We find that historical observations are more consistent with the simulations with increasing frequency than those with decreasing frequency, but we are not able to rule out the latter. We argue that the most rational way to treat epistemic uncertainty is to consider all outcomes contained in the results. In the context of risk assessment, since the results contain possible outcomes in which TC risk is increasing, this view implies that the risk is increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

OT Operational Anomaly Detection (OAD) T&D + DER

The growth of utility-scale renewable energy resources, distributed energy resources (DER), and transportation electrification has increased uncertainty and cybersecurity risks in power grids. The Purdue Enterprise Reference Architecture model which is widely adopted by the utility industry is now insufficient to protect the power grid against cyber-attacks. There is a need to identify what cybersecurity model is effective on Energy Management System (EMS), Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS), and DER Management System (DERMS) to address the fundamental cybersecurity challenges in the age of increasing renewable energy and DER share as well as consumer participation in the electric energy industry. The next generation of cybersecurity model for OT network should be able to detect inside attackers, mitigate the cybersecurity risks arising from the new grid participants including DER aggregators, electric vehicle owners, and behind-the-meter consumers outside the utility company, and develop the strategy to trust consumer measurement data. This panel will discuss the challenges and pathways for the development of an ensemble cybersecurity model based on predictive state estimation to detect cybersecurity anomalies in OT network including EMS, ADMS, and DERMS.

cybersecurity↗
NASA NTRS2015

The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).

climate↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Seasly, Elaine↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pathways towards managing cost and degradation risk of fast charging cells with electrical and thermal controls

The charging rate of Li-ion batteries is limited by the risks of lithium plating and thermal damage, both of which negatively affect lifetime of the batteries. This work analyzes how to minimize charge time and manage the risk of degradation using both electrical and thermal controls. To accomplish this, an electrochemical-thermal model is developed to introduce a constant-risk fast charging protocol which maximizes the charging current while maintaining the cell within pre-defined design limits selected to minimize the risk of degradation. Results indicate 80%-charging of a typical NMC/graphite cell can be achieved within 10 minutes with a cell cost under $100 kW –1 h –1 (corresponding to an 80 μm thick anode) when charged at moderate allowable risks of degradation. Here, we also demonstrate how stretching the allowable risk (i.e., higher temperatures, larger C-rates, and lower anode potential limits) allows affordable design of fast charging cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fundamentals of wildlife dosimetry and lessons learned from a decade of measuring external dose rates in the field

Methods for determining the radiation dose received by exposed biota require major improvements to reduce uncertainties and increase precision. We share our experiences in attempting to quantify external dose rates to free-ranging wildlife using GPS-coupled dosimetry methods. The manuscript is a primer on fundamental concepts in wildlife dosimetry in which the complexities of quantifying dose rates are highlighted, and lessons learned are presented based on research with wild boar and snakes at Fukushima, wolves at Chornobyl, and reindeer in Norway. GPS-coupled dosimeters produced empirical data to which numerical simulations of external dose using computer software were compared. Our data did not support a standing paradigm in risk analyses: Using averaged soil contaminant levels to model external dose rates conservatively overestimate the dose to individuals within a population. Following this paradigm will likely lead to misguided recommendations for risk management. The GPS-dosimetry data also demonstrated the critical importance of how modeled external dose rates are impacted by the scale at which contaminants are mapped. When contaminant mapping scales are coarse even detailed knowledge about each animal’s home range was inadequate to accurately predict external dose rates. Importantly, modeled external dose rates based on a single measurement at a trap site did not correlate to actual dose rates measured on free ranging animals. These findings provide empirical data to support published concerns about inadequate dosimetry in much of the published Chernobyl and Fukushima dose-effects research. Furthermore, our data indicate that a huge portion of that literature should be challenged, and that improper dosimetry remains a significant source of controversy in radiation dose-effect research.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Progress on the MARVEL Cybersecurity by Design Model-Based Systems Engineering Project

Formal model-based systems engineering (MBSE) combines a model, systems thinking, and systems engineering to visually depict the boundaries, context, and behavior of interconnected systems, facilitating effective design, development, and utilization of engineered systems throughout the systems engineering lifecycle. Although nuclear reactor vendors employ these tools to integrate functionality, performance, and safety, they are not yet addressing digital risk concerns introduced by use of operational technology, such as digital instrumentation and control systems. To accomplish this objective, the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) microreactor was used as an MBSE case study. This real-world application provides a first-of-a-kind opportunity to demonstrate the benefits of integrating digital risk and cybersecurity into the MBSE design process of a nuclear reactor. This paper provides an update of the ongoing MARVEL Cyber MBSE project as it specifically relates to the integration of digital risk management and cybersecurity by design.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Using software security analysis to verify the secure socket layer (SSL) protocol

nal Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have tens of thousands of networked computer systems and applications. Software Security vulnerabilities present risks such as lost or corrupted data, information the3, and unavailability of critical systems. These risks represent potentially enormous costs to NASA. The NASA Code Q research initiative 'Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach '' offers, among its capabilities, formal verification of software security properties, through the use of model based verification (MBV) to address software security risks. [1,2,3,4,5,6] MBV is a formal approach to software assurance that combines analysis of software, via abstract models, with technology, such as model checkers, that provide automation of the mechanical portions of the analysis process. This paper will discuss: The need for formal analysis to assure software systems with respect to software and why testing alone cannot provide it. The means by which MBV with a Flexible Modeling Framework (FMF) accomplishes the necessary analysis task. An example of FMF style MBV in the verification of properties over the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration.

software↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating dermal contact soil exposure for amphibians

Abstract Chemical exposure estimation through the dermal route is an underemphasized area of ecological risk assessment for terrestrial animals. Currently, there are efforts to create exposure models to estimate doses from this pathway for use in ecological risk assessment. One significant limitation has been insufficient published data to characterize exposure and to support the selection and parameterization of appropriate models, particularly for amphibians in terrestrial habitats. Recent publications measuring pesticide doses to terrestrial‐phase amphibians have begun to rectify this situation. We collated and summarized available measurements of terrestrial amphibian dermal exposure to pesticides from 11 studies in which researchers measured tissue concentrations associated with known pesticide experimental application rates. This data set included tissue concentrations in 11 amphibian species and 14 different pesticides. We then compared the results of two screening exposure models that differed based on surface area scaling approaches as a function of body weight (one based on birds as surrogates for amphibians and another amphibian‐specific) to the measured tissue residue concentrations. We define a false‐negative rate for each screening model as the proportion of amphibians for which the predicted concentration is less than the observed concentration (i.e., underestimate), contrary to the intent of screening models, which are intended to have a bias for higher exposure concentrations. The screening model that uses birds as surrogates did not have any instances where estimated expected avian doses were less than measured amphibian body burdens. When using the amphibian‐specific exposure model that corrected for differences between avian and amphibian surface area, measured concentrations were greater than model estimates for 11.3% of the 1158 comparisons. The database of measured pesticide concentrations in terrestrial amphibians is provided for use in calculating bioconcentration factors and for future amphibian dermal exposure model development. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:9–16. © 2022 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2004

Human Health Risk Assessment Simulations in a Distributed Environment for Shuttle Launch

During the launch of a rocket under prevailing weather conditions, commanders at Cape Canaveral Air Force station evaluate the possibility of whether wind blown toxic emissions might reach civilian and military personnel in the near by area. In our model, we focused mainly on Hydrogen chloride (HCL), Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and Nitric acid (HNO3), which are non-carcinogenic chemicals as per United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) classification. We have used the hazard quotient model to estimate the number of people at risk. It is based on the number of people with exposure above a reference exposure level that is unlikely to cause adverse health effects. The risk to the exposed population is calculated by multiplying the individual risk and the number in exposed population. The risk values are compared against the acceptable risk values and GO or NO-go situation is decided based on risk values for the Shuttle launch. The entire model is simulated over the web and different scenaria can be generated which allows management to choose an optimum decision.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗
DOE OSTI2025

GridSTIX

SF-25-112 Grid-STIX is a comprehensive extension of the STIX (Structured Threat Information Expression) 2.1 ontology specifically designed for electrical grid cybersecurity applications. This ontology provides a standardized, machine-readable framework for modeling grid assets, operational technology devices, threats, vulnerabilities, supply chain risks, and security relationships in electrical power systems. ## Key Features - **Comprehensive Grid Coverage**: Physical assets, OT devices, grid components, sensors, and energy storage systems - **Zero Trust Architecture**: Policy decision points, enforcement points, trust brokers, and continuous monitoring - **AMI Infrastructure**: Advanced metering networks, head-end systems, mesh gateways, and MDM systems - **Advanced Security Modeling**: Attack patterns, vulnerabilities, mitigations, and supply chain risks - **Critical Grid Relationships**: Power flow, protection, control, and synchronization relationships - **Supply Chain Security**: Supplier modeling, country of origin tracking, and risk assessment - **Protocol Support**: DNP3, Modbus, IEC 61850, IEC 60870-5-104, OPC-UA, and IEEE standards - **Python Code Generation**: Automated STIX-compliant Python class generation from ontologies - **Interactive Visualization**: Enhanced HTML network graphs with grid-specific categorization - **STIX 2.1 Compliance**: Full compatibility with STIX threat intelligence ecosystem

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
NASA NTRS2016

Pharmaceuticals Exposed to the Space Environment: Problems and Prospects

The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Health Countermeasures Element maintains ongoing efforts to inform detailed risks, gaps, and further questions associated with the use of pharmaceuticals in space. Most recently, the Pharmacology Risk Report, released in 2010, illustrates the problems associated with maintaining pharmaceutical efficacy. Since the report, one key publication includes evaluation of pharmaceutical products stored on the International Space Station (ISS). This study shows that selected pharmaceuticals on ISS have a shorter shelf-life in space than corresponding terrestrial controls. The HRP Human Research Roadmap for planetary exploration identifies the risk of ineffective or toxic medications due to long-term storage during missions to Mars. The roadmap also identifies the need to understand and predict how pharmaceuticals will behave when exposed to radiation for long durations. Terrestrial studies of returned samples offer a start for predictive modeling. This paper shows that pharmaceuticals returned to Earth for post-flight analyses are amenable to a Weibull distribution analysis in order to support probabilistic risk assessment modeling. The paper also considers the prospect of passive payloads of key pharmaceuticals on sample return missions outside of Earth's magnetic field to gather additional statistics. Ongoing work in radiation chemistry suggests possible mitigation strategies where future work could be done at cryogenic temperatures to explore methods for preserving the strength of pharmaceuticals in the space radiation environment, perhaps one day leading to an architecture where pharmaceuticals are cached on the Martian surface and preserved cryogenically.

pharmacology↗