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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Extremely rapid, Lagrangian modeling of 2D flooding: A rivulet-based approach

Estimates of potential flood inundation areas and depths are critical to informing the preparedness, response, and investment decisions of many government agencies and private sector organizations, especially under a changing climate. The standard modeling approaches, however, are often either computationally intensive or constrained in their accuracy or applicability. A novel, rivulet-based, 2D model of pluvial flooding is described in this article that is 10,000 to 10 million times less computationally complex than the full solution of the shallow water equations, yet achieves inundation area hit rates of between 0.8 and 0.9 and relative absolute mean errors of 10%-20% across a wide range of flow depths. This combination of accuracy and efficiency will enable real-time depth estimates during flood events, detailed sensitivity analyses, and the generation of large ensembles to support broad uncertainty analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Retrieval Algorithms for Validating the Optical Transient Detector and the Lightning Imaging Sensor

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from an Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions. Solutions for the plane (i.e., no earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated datasets, and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data an the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA:s Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor. A quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available is also introduced. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in sc)iirce location, Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated datasets, and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three-station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 deg.

Koshak, W. J.↗

Kinemetrics Q330M+ Digitizer Evaluation

Sandia National Laboratories has tested and evaluated a new digitizer, the Q330M+, manufactured by Quanterra, a division of Kinemetrics Inc. This digitizer is used to record sensor output for seismic and infrasound monitoring applications. The purpose of the digitizer evaluation was to measure the performance characteristics in such areas as sensitivity, input impedance, power consumption, self noise, dynamic range, system noise, relative transfer function, analog bandwidth, modified noise power ratio, harmonic distortion, common mode, cross talk, timing tag accuracy and timing drift. The Q330M+ provides six channels of 24 bit digitization, all of which may be transmitted utilizing CD1.1 protocol, at multiple sample rates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Recent Progress at the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS)

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) is experiencing significant growth. New stations are being built and brought into operation, expanding the spatial and temporal coverage of the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) observations. Some of these stations are multi-technique Core Sites that allow us to exploit the combined strengths of different geodetic space techniques. New satellites are strengthening the ILRS contribution to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF), and expanding the spectrum of satellite applications supported by the ILRS. New analysis, modeling, and data processing techniques continue to improve the science products. New campaigns are continuing to expand SLR applications into relativity and the study of non-gravitational forces. The ILRS is currently participating in the Galileo for Science campaign (G4S_2.0 project), funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI), which aims to perform a set of measurements in the field of gravitation with the Galileo satellites, taking advantage of the accuracy of the on-board atomic clocks and, in particular, of GSAT0201and GSAT0202 by exploiting their relatively high eccentricity (~0.16). New activities underway in Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR), with the imminent launch and deployment of the upcoming Next Generation Lunar Retroreflector - 1 (NGLR-1) to the lunar surface. Some new satellites supported by the ILRS are now exploring means of capturing Space Debris, while some ILRS stations run local laser ranging projects to track space debris, contributing to the maintenance of various data catalogs. Time transfer experiments are also expanding the application of laser ranging, linking two fully characterized optical clocks at different locations with SLR (Einstein Synchronization) providing measurements of height differences, demonstrating the feasibility of a physical height system. Two-way and one-way transponders activity has been underway since the LASSO experiment in the 1990’s. More experiments are underway or planned. Applications include time and frequency transfer and clock synchronization between ground and space, interplanetary laser ranging, and fundamental physics. This presentation will give an update on ILRS activities and the impact that these activities have had and will have on ILRS data products.

Lunar Laser Ranging↗

Copacabana: a probabilistic membership assignment method for galaxy clusters

Cosmological analyses using galaxy clusters in optical/near-infrared photometric surveys require robust characterization of their galaxy content. Precisely determining which galaxies belong to a cluster is crucial. In this paper, we present the COlor Probabilistic Assignment of Clusters And BAyesiaN Analysis (Copacabana) algorithm. Copacabana computes membership probabilities for all galaxies within an aperture centred on the cluster using photometric redshifts, colours, and projected radial probability density functions. We use simulations to validate Copacabana and we show that it achieves up to 89 per cent membership accuracy with a mild dependence on photometric redshift uncertainties and choice of aperture size. We find that the precision of the photometric redshifts has the largest impact on the determination of the membership probabilities followed by the choice of the cluster aperture size. We also quantify how much these uncertainties in the membership probabilities affect the stellar mass–cluster mass scaling relation, a relation that directly impacts cosmology. Using the sum of the stellar masses weighted by membership probabilities (⁠μ * ⁠) as the observable, we find that Copacabana can reach an accuracy of 0.06 dex in the measurement of the scaling relation at low redshift for a Legacy Survey of Space and Time type survey. These results indicate the potential of Copacabana and μ * to be used in cosmological analyses of optically selected clusters in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The diffusive idealization of charged-particle transport in random magnetic fields

The uniqueness and accuracy of the equations which describe the transport of charged particles diffusing in a random magnetic field parallel to a relatively large guiding field is examined. With regard to uniqueness, it is found that the same coefficient of diffusion is obtained by three methods that have apparently led to discrepancies in previous work. With regard to accuracy, it is found that two corrections must be added to Fick's law in which the diffusive flux is proportional to the gradient of the density. Explicit expressions are given for a characteristic time and a characteristic length which describe the corrections.

Earl, J. A.↗

Image based tracking approaches to AR/C at the Johnson Space Center

Automated Rendezvous and Capture (AR&C) requires the determination of the six degrees of freedom relating two free bodies. Sensor systems that can provide such information have varying sizes, weights, power requirements, complexities and accuracies. One type of sensor system which can provide several key advantages is an image based tracking system, or better known as a machine vision system. By image based tracking we mean that the sensor is some imaging device such as one or more video cameras, from which the tracking parameters necessary to support the rendezvous and capture operations (range, attitude, etc.) can be derived. Image based tracking offers many advantages such as relative hardware simplicity and reprogrammability. These advantages must be weighed against the disadvantages of these systems, such as limited operational range, poorer accuracy at greater distances and sensitivity to lighting conditions. However, with properly designed algorithms and targets these disadvantages can be minimized for many important applications. Rigorous testing in realistic environments can further increase the robustness and reliability of these systems. This presentation describes the facilities used at JSC to support AR&C image based tracking development and the details of our binocular stereo approach to image based tracking.

Fisher, Timothy E.↗

An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties

Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A deep dilated convolutional residual network for predicting interchain contacts of protein homodimers

Abstract Motivation Deep learning has revolutionized protein tertiary structure prediction recently. The cutting-edge deep learning methods such as AlphaFold can predict high-accuracy tertiary structures for most individual protein chains. However, the accuracy of predicting quaternary structures of protein complexes consisting of multiple chains is still relatively low due to lack of advanced deep learning methods in the field. Because interchain residue–residue contacts can be used as distance restraints to guide quaternary structure modeling, here we develop a deep dilated convolutional residual network method (DRCon) to predict interchain residue–residue contacts in homodimers from residue–residue co-evolutionary signals derived from multiple sequence alignments of monomers, intrachain residue–residue contacts of monomers extracted from true/predicted tertiary structures or predicted by deep learning, and other sequence and structural features. Results Tested on three homodimer test datasets (Homo_std dataset, DeepHomo dataset and CASP-CAPRI dataset), the precision of DRCon for top L/5 interchain contact predictions (L: length of monomer in a homodimer) is 43.46%, 47.10% and 33.50% respectively at 6 Å contact threshold, which is substantially better than DeepHomo and DNCON2_inter and similar to Glinter. Moreover, our experiments demonstrate that using predicted tertiary structure or intrachain contacts of monomers in the unbound state as input, DRCon still performs well, even though its accuracy is lower than using true tertiary structures in the bound state are used as input. Finally, our case study shows that good interchain contact predictions can be used to build high-accuracy quaternary structure models of homodimers. Availability and implementation The source code of DRCon is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/DRCon. The datasets are available at https://zenodo.org/record/5998532#.YgF70vXMKsB. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Constitutive model development of aluminum alloy 1100 for elevated temperature forming process

Commercially pure aluminum alloy, AA1100, presents good electrical and thermal conductivity, high formability, and low cost. Those favorable characteristics have the potential to enable bipolar plates with improved economics and enhanced performance compared to current stainless steel bipolar plates for proton exchange membrane fuel cells. An accurate constitutive model is essential to develop and optimize processing parameters and effectively control the forming process. Here, the objective of this work is to develop a constitutive model of AA1100 that is able to simulate stress-strain relation, formed geometry, and predict the onset of fracture strain to avoid forming failure. Initially, a set of tensile tests at temperature between 300 and 500°C and strain rate between 0.005 and 1.0/s were conducted to examine the deformation behavior. Then, a set of damage-based unified visco-plastic constitutive equations is proposed and calibrated based on the results of stress-strain data. A genetic algorithm optimization method is applied to search for best fitting material constants in constitutive equations. The proposed model shows good predictability of both the stress-strain relation and fracture strain at low strain rate and high temperature conditions. The accuracy of proposed model is also evaluated statistically. A comparison of the proposed model with three popular models (Arrhenius-type mode, Johnson-Cook model and Zerilli-Armstrong model) was made. The proposed model shows the best experimental agreement with correlation coefficient of 0.96 in contrast to 0.25, 0.38 and 0.75 for the popular models, respectively. The proposed model can help to optimize the elevated temperature forming process and guide die design to enable optimal geometric features in the formed components.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Liquid to crystal Si growth simulation using machine learning force field

Machine learning force field (ML-FF) has emerged as a potential promising approach to simulate various material phenomena for large systems with ab initio accuracy. However, most ML-FFs have been used to study the phenomena relatively close to the equilibrium ground states. In this work, we have studied a far from equilibrium system of liquid to crystal Si growth using ML-FF. Here, we found that our ML-FF based on ab initio decomposed atomic energy can reproduce all the aspects of ab initio simulated growth, from local energy fluctuations to transition temperatures, to diffusion constant, and growth rates. We have also compared the growth simulation with the Stillinger-Weber classical force field and found significant differences. A procedure is also provided to correct a systematic fitting bias in the ML-FF training process, which exists in all training models, otherwise critical results like transition temperature will be wrong.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Constraining the release of Sn to the ambient melting point following shock loading using time-resolved x-ray diffraction

The formation of liquid following release from a shocked state governs the transition from spall to cavitation and the formation of ejecta in metals. In order to build physics-based models of these processes, it is necessary to critically evaluate the relative importance of kinetics and entropy generation during the release along with the accuracy of multiphase equations of state. Tin (Sn) has served as a testbed for a variety of experiments examining strength and ejecta due to its accessible melt boundary and solid–solid phase transitions. This work presents experiments examining the phase evolution of high purity Sn following the shock and release to ambient stress near the melting point. Sn is found to release to states between its ambient solidus and liquidus from approximately 19 to 33 GPa under uniaxial loading, with the two-phase region being characterized by a reduction in the intensity of the (220), (211) β -Sn doublet. Jetting experiments performed at 27–28 GPa exhibit comparable diffraction patterns with what is observed following the uniaxial release. The solid fractions of β-Sn in the ambient mixed phase region are found to decrease linearly with increasing shock stress as increasing liquid Sn is formed. Here, the results provide much needed information for interpreting measurements of dynamic strength at a high strain rate and experiments examining cavitation and shallow bubble collapse in Sn.

, spall↗

Millikelvin measurements of permittivity and loss tangent of lithium niobate

Lithium niobate is an electro-optic material with many applications in microwave and optical signal processing, communication, quantum sensing, and quantum computing. In this Letter, we present findings on evaluating the complex electromagnetic permittivity of lithium niobate at millikelvin temperatures. Measurements are carried out using a resonant-type method with a superconducting radio-frequency cavity operating at 7 GHz and designed to characterize anisotropic dielectrics. The relative permittivity tensor and loss tangent are measured at 50 mK with unprecedented accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using an Analytic-Based Magnetic Charge Fourier Series Model to Study a Magnetic Lead Screw when Operating as a Magnetic Spring

A magnetic charge field analysis approach is presented that models an array of magnets by using a magnetic vector Fourier series representation. Using a Fourier series function enables the magnets' relative permeability to be accounted for and also reduces the computational burden. The accuracy of the presented modelling approach is validated by studying the fields and forces created by a magnetic lead screw when acting as a magnetic spring

Kouhshahi, Mojtaba Bahrami↗

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗

Neck Muscle Coactivation Response to Varied Levels of Mental Workload During Simulated Flight Tasks

Objective To evaluate neck muscle coactivation across different levels of mental workload during simulated flight tasks. Background Neck pain (NP) is highly prevalent among military aviators. Given the complex nature within the flight environment, mental workload may be a risk factor for NP. This may induce higher levels of neck muscle coactivity, which over time may accelerate fatigue, increase neck discomfort, and affect flight task performance. Method Three counterbalanced mental workload conditions represented by simulated flight tasks modulated by interstimulus frequency and complexity were investigated using the Modifiable Multitasking Environment (ModME). The primary measure was a neck coactivation index to describe the neuromuscular effort of the neck muscles as a system. Additional measures included perceived workload (NASA TLX), subjective discomfort, and task performance. Participants ( n = 60; 30M, 30F) performed three test conditions over 1 hr each while seated in a simulated seating environment. Results Neck coactivation indices (CoA) and subjective neck discomfort corresponded with increasing level of mental workload. Average CoAs for low, medium, and high workloads were: .0278(SD = .0232), .0286(SD = .0231), and .0295(SD = .0228), respectively. NASA TLX mental, temporal, effort, and overall scores also increased with the level of mental workload assigned. For ModME task performance, the overall performance score, monitoring accuracy, and resource management accuracy decreased while reaction times increased with the increasing level of mental workload. Communication accuracy was lowest with the low mental workload but had higher reaction times relative to increasing workload. Conclusion Mental workload affects neck muscle coactivation during combinations of simulated flight tasks within a simulated helicopter seating environment. Application The results of this study provide insights into the physical response to mental workload. With increasing multisensory modalities within the work environment, these insights may assist the consideration of physical effects from cognitive factors.

Behavioral Sciences↗

Subroutine allows easy computation in extended precision arithmetic

Subroutine called NPREC allows relatively simple computation of very large numbers or very small fractions with extreme accuracy. This subroutine handles numbers that consist of 35 binary bits /1 word/ for the exponent and 70 bits /2 words/ for the fraction.

Berggren, R. L.↗