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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions

Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DESI Mg II Absorbers: Extinction Characteristics and Quasar Redshift Accuracy

In this paper, we study how absorption-line systems affect the spectra and redshifts of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs), using catalogs of Mg II absorbers from the early data release and first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. We determine the reddening effect of an absorption system by fitting an unreddened template spectrum to a sample of 50,674 QSO spectra that contain Mg II absorbers. We find that reddening caused by intervening absorbers (v off > 3500 km s −1 ) has an average color excess of $\overline{E(B-V)}$ = 0.04 mag. We find that the E(B − V) tends to be greater for absorbers at low redshifts, or those having Mg II absorption lines with higher equivalent widths, but shows no clear trend with v off for intervening systems. However, the $\overline{E(B-V)}$ of associated absorbers, those at v off < 3500 km s −1 , shows a strong trend with v off , increasing rapidly with decreasing v off and peaking (∼0.15 mag) around v off = 0 km s −1 . We demonstrate that Mg II absorbers impact redshift estimation for QSOs by investigating the distributions of v off for associated absorbers. We find that at z > 1.5, these distributions broaden and bifurcate in a nonphysical manner. In an effort to mitigate this effect, we mask pixels associated with the Mg II absorption lines and recalculate the QSO redshifts. We find that we can recover voff populations in better agreement with those for z < 1.5 absorbers and in doing so typically shift background QSO redshifts by Δz ≈ ± 0.005.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A non-LTE study of silicon line formation in early-type main-sequence atmospheres.

We have computed populations of 16 levels of Si III-V and radiation fields in all connecting transitions; in particular the first six Si III triplet levels, including the 4553 line, and the first six Si IV levels including 4089. The computations were done for four non-LTE H-He model atmospheres, provided by Auer and Mihalas. Estimates of corresponding MK types are B1.5 V, B0.5 V, O9 V, and O6. Solutions were obtained by iterating the linearized equations of radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium, except that for less important lines an approximate equivalent two-level atom treatment was used. Continuous opacities of C, N, O, and Ne were included. All abundances were solar values.

Kamp, L. W.↗

The ultraviolet extinction in M-supergiant circumstellar envelopes

Using International Ultraviolet (IUS) archival low-dispersion spectra, ultraviolet spectral extinctions were derived for the circumstellar envelopes of two M supergiants: HD 60414 and HD 213310. The observed stellar systems belong to a class of widely-separated spectroscopic binaries that are called VV Cephei stars. The total extinction was calculated by dividing the reddened fluxes with unreddened comparison fluxes of similar stars (g B2.5 for HD 213310 and a normalized s+B3 for HD 60414) from the reference atlas. After substracting the interstellar extinctions, which were estimated from the E(B-V) reddening of nearby stars, the resultant circumstellar extinctions were normalized at about 3.5 inverse microns. Not only is the 2175 A extinction bump absent in the circumstellar extinctions, but the far-ultraviolet extinction rise is also absent. The rather flat, ultraviolet extinction curves were interpreted as signatures of a population of noncarbonaceous, oxygen-rich grains with diameters larger than the longest observed wavelength.

Buss, R. H., Jr.↗

A Chandra X-Ray Survey of Ejecta in the Cassiopeia A Supernova Remnant

We present a survey of the X-ray emitting ejecta in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant based on an extensive analysis of over 6000 spectral regions extracted on 2.5-10" angular scales using the Chandra 1 Ms observation. We interpret these results in the context of hydrodynamical models for the evolution of the remnant. The distributions of fitted temperature and ionization age are highly peaked and suggest that the ejecta were subjected to multiple secondary shocks. Based on the fitted emission measure and element abundances, and an estimate of the emitting volume, we derive masses for the X-ray emitting ejecta as well as showing the distribution of the mass of various elements over the remnant. The total shocked Fe mass appears to be roughly 0.14 Solar Mass, which accounts for nearly all of the mass expected in Fe ejecta. We find two populations of Fe ejecta, that associated with normal Si-burning and that associated with alpha-rich freeze-out, with a mass ratio of approximately 2:1. Surprisingly, essentially all of this Fe (both components) is well outside the central regions of the SNR, presumably having been ejected by hydrodynamic instabilities during the explosion. We discuss this, and its implications for the neutron star kick.

Hwang, Una↗

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

Achieving Global Consensus on Acceptable Sound Levels for Overland Supersonic Flight

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has made a commitment to deliver to the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (ICAO CAEP) data defining community response to sounds from supersonic aircraft designed such that their sonic boom is replaced with a soft “thump” sound. The dataset will be a correlation of public perceptions of these sounds to the corresponding acoustic levels. The data will support efforts to develop international standards for permissible noise from supersonic overflight. NASA is planning and preparing for a series of community overflight tests with the X-59, a unique research aircraft capable of generating the “sonic thump”. NASA will begin these tests in 2024. With an eye toward achieving global consensus for noise standards, NASA’s goal is that the community response data be as broadly representative of the response of the international population as possible. As such, NASA is engaging the international regulatory and research communities in both the planning and execution of these tests, through status briefings at ICAO CAEP-sponsored meetings and through workshops with international participation. As part of this outreach NASA held a virtual workshop in December 2021 focused on strategies and considerations for estimating noise exposure levels and conducting surveys to characterize community annoyance levels relative to the “thump” sounds. This paper will present an overview of NASA’s effort, with a focus on the plans and technical goals for the community response tests. In addition, results of the recent workshop will be briefed, including considerations and approaches for ensuring broad representativeness of results and approaches for estimation of the sound levels across the test community. Participant feedback from both the workshop and previous engagements will be discussed, along with how it is being addressed in NASA’s ongoing planning efforts.

Supersonic Flight↗

OzDES Reverberation Mapping of Active Galactic Nuclei: Final Data Release, Black-Hole Mass Results, & Scaling Relations

Over the last decade, the Australian Dark Energy (OzDES) collaboration has used Reverberation Mapping to measure the masses of high redshift supermassive black holes. Here we present the final review and analysis of this OzDES reverberation mapping campaign. These observations use 6-7 years of photometric and spectroscopic observations of 735 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in the redshift range 0.13-3.85 and bolometric luminosity range 44.3 - 47.5 erg/s. Both photometry and spectra are observed in visible wavelengths, allowing for the physical scale of the AGN broad line region to be estimated from reverberations of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emission lines. We successfully use reverberation mapping to constrain the masses of 62 super-massive black holes, and combine with existing data to fit a power law to the lag-luminosity relation for the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱ and MgII lines with a scatter of ~0.25 dex, the tightest yet identified, fit specifically for consistency with high redshift AGN. We fit a similarly constrained relation for CIV, resolving a tension with the low luminosity literature AGN by accounting for selection effects arising from finite survey length. We also examine the impact of emission line width and luminosity (related to accretion rate) in reducing the scatter of these scaling relationships and find no significant improvement over the lag-only approach for any of the three lines. Using these relations, we further estimate the masses and accretion rates of 246 AGN with single epoch methods. We also use these relations to estimate the relative sizes of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emitting regions. In short, we provide a comprehensive benchmark of high redshift AGN reverberation mapping at the close of this most recent generation of surveys, including light curves, time-delays, and a set of significantly improved radius-luminosity relations for use with high-redshift populations.

McDougall, Hugh [Queensland U.]↗

Width-Based Discharge Partitioning in Distributary Networks: How Right We Are

River deltas are home to large populations and can be composed of complex channel networks which convey flows of matter to the shoreline. Knowledge of flow within individual channels is needed to quantify the distribution of discharge across the delta, and thus its sustainability over time. Due to a lack of field measurements at the local channel scale, researchers leverage remote sensing data to estimate the partitioning of flow. We compare data from 15 river deltas to discharge partitioning estimates based on channel network graphs derived from remote sensing imagery. We quantify errors in the common width-based method and test alternative partitioning techniques to find that width-based discharge partitioning is universally applicable, suggesting that absent any site-specific information, discharge partitioning by average channel width is an appropriate approach. We also provide networks, streamflow measurements, and flux partitioning estimates for 28 delta networks as the Discharge In Distributary NeTworks (DIDNT) dataset.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids

The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.

Bottke, William F., Jr.↗

Far-Infrared Water Emissions from Magnetohydrodynamic Shock Waves

Nondissociative, magnetohydrodynamic, C-type shock waves are expected to be a prodigious source of far-infrared water emissions in dense interstellar regions. We have constructed a model to calculate the farinfrared H20 line spectra that emerge from such shocks. Using the best estimates currently available for the radiative cooling rate and the degree of ion-neutral coupling within the shocked gas, we modeled the temperature structure of MHD shocks using standard methods in which the charged and neutral particles are treated separately as two weakly coupled, interpenetrating fluids. Then we solved the equations of statistical equilibrium to find the populations of the lowest 179 and 170 rotational states of ortho- and para-H2O We have completed an extensive parameter study to determine the emergent H2O line luminosities as a function of preshock density in the range n(H2) equals 10(exp 4) - 10(sup 6.5)/cc and shock velocity in the range upsilon(sub s) = 5 - 40 km/ s. We find that numerous rotational transitions of water are potentially observable using the Infrared Space Observatory and the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite and may be used as diagnostics of the shocked gas. We have also computed the rotational and ro-vibrational emissions expected from H2, CO, and OH, and we discuss how complementary observations of such emissions may be used to further constrain the shock conditions. In common with previous studies, we come close to matching the observed H2, and high-J CO emissions from the Orion-KL star-forming region on the basis of a single shock model. We present our predictions for the strengths of H2O line emission from the Orion shock, and we show how our results may be scaled to other regions where molecular shocks are likely to be present.

Kaufman, Michael J.↗

NGC 1614: A Laboratory for Starburst Evolution

The modest extinction and reasonably face-on viewing geometry make the luminous infrared galaxy NGC 1614 an ideal laboratory for study of a powerful starburst. HST/NICMOS observations show: (1) deep CO stellar absorption, tracing a starburst nucleus about 45 pc in diameter; (2) surrounded by an approx. 600 pc diameter ring of supergiant H II regions revealed in Pa-alpha line emission; (3) lying within a molecular ring indicated by its extinction shadow in H - K; and (4) all at the center of a disturbed spiral galaxy. The luminosities of the giant H II regions in the ring axe extremely high, an order of magnitude brighter than 30 Doradus; very luminous H II regions, comparable with 30 Dor, are also found in the spiral arms of the galaxy. Luminous stellar clusters surround the nucleus and lie in the spiral arms, similar to clusters observed in other infrared luminous and ultraluminous galaxies. The star forming activity may have been initiated by a merger between a disk galaxy and a companion satellite, whose nucleus appears in projection about 300 pc to the NE of the nucleus of the primary galaxy. The relation of deep stellar CO bands to surrounding ionized gas ring to molecular gas indicates that the luminous starburst started in the nucleus and is propagating outward into the surrounding molecular ring. This hypothesis is supported by evolutionary starburst modeling that shows that the properties of NGC 1614 can be fitted with two short-lived bursts of star formation separated by 5 Myr (and by inference by a variety of models with a similar duration of star formation). The total dynamical mass of the starburst region of 1.3 x 10(exp 9) solar masses is mostly accounted for by the old pre-starburst stellar population. Although our starburst models use a modified Salpeter initial mass function (turning over near one solar mass), the tight mass budget suggests that the IMF may contain relatively more 10 - 30 solar masses stars and fewer low mass stars than the Salpeter function. The dynamical mass is nearly four times smaller than the mass of molecular gas estimated from the standard ratio of (C-12)O (1 - 0) to H2. A number of arguments place the mass of gas in the starburst region at approx. 25% of the dynamical mass, nominally about 1/15 and with an upper limit of 1/10 of the amount estimated from (C-12)O and the standard ratio.

Alonso-Herrero, A.↗

Photospheric Radius Expansion and a Double-peaked Type-I X-Ray Burst from GRS 1741.9-2853

We present an analysis of two type-I X-ray bursts observed by NuSTAR originating from the very faint transient neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binary GRS 1741.9–2853 during a period of outburst in 2020 May. We show that the persistent emission can be modeled as an absorbed, Comptonized blackbody in addition to Fe Kα emission, which can be attributed to relativistic disk reflection. We measure a persistent bolometric, unabsorbed luminosity of L(bol) = 7.03(+0.04, -0.05) x 10^(36) erg/s, assuming a distance of 7 kpc, corresponding to an Eddington ratio of 4.5%. This persistent luminosity combined with light-curve analysis leads us to infer that the bursts were the result of pure He burning rather than mixed H/He burning. Time-resolved spectroscopy reveals that the bolometric flux of the first burst exhibits a double-peaked structure, placing the source within a small population of accreting NSs that exhibit multiple-peaked type-I X-ray bursts. We find that the second, brighter burst shows evidence for photospheric radius expansion (PRE) and that at its peak, this PRE event had an unabsorbed bolometric flux of F(peak)= 2.94 (+0.28, -0.26) 10^(-8) erg/sq.cm s. This yields a new distance estimate of d = 9.0 ± 0.5 kpc, assuming that this corresponds to the Eddington limit for pure He burning on the surface of a canonical NS. Additionally, we performed a detailed timing analysis that failed to find evidence for quasi-periodic oscillations or burst oscillations, and we place an upper limit of 16% on the rms variability around 589 Hz, the frequency at which oscillations have previously been reported.

Sean N. Pike↗

Inferring Structural Parameters of Low-Surface-Brightness-Galaxies with Uncertainty Quantification using Bayesian Neural Networks

Measuring the structural parameters (size, total brightness, light concentration, etc.) of galaxies is a significant first step towards a quantitative description of different galaxy populations. In this work, we demonstrate that a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) can be used for the inference, with uncertainty quantification, of such morphological parameters from simulated low-surface-brightness galaxy images. Compared to traditional profile-fitting methods, we show that the uncertainties obtained using BNNs are comparable in magnitude, well-calibrated, and the point estimates of the parameters are closer to the true values. Our method is also significantly faster, which is very important with the advent of the era of large galaxy surveys and big data in astrophysics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Transit buses operate primarily in dense urban areas, where nearby populations face increased exposure to fine particulates, nitrogen oxides, and other harmful pollutants. Electrifying transit buses presents a clear opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. However, widespread adoption may pose significant energy and infrastructure challenges, which can be mitigated through proactive planning and investment. This report presents a robust modeling framework and an initial estimation of the hourly electricity demand at transit bus depots across the United States. The resulting depot-level dataset, available at data.nrel.gov/submissions/282, provides valuable insights for infrastructure planning and electricity demand forecasting, supporting the scalable electrification of transit bus fleets nationwide.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Determining Stellar Elemental Abundances from DESI Spectra with the Data-driven Payne

Abstract Stellar abundances for a large number of stars provide key information for the study of Galactic formation history. Large spectroscopic surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and LAMOST take median-to-low-resolution (R≲ 5000) spectra in the full optical wavelength range for millions of stars. However, the line-blending effect in these spectra causes great challenges for elemental abundance determination. Here we employDD-Payne, a data-driven method regularized by differential spectra from stellar physical models, to the DESI early data release spectra for stellar abundance determination. Our implementation delivers 15 labels, including effective temperatureT eff , surface gravity log g , microturbulence velocityv mic , and the abundances for 12 individual elements, namely C, N, O, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni. Given a spectral signal-to-noise ratio of 100 per pixel, the internal precisions of the label estimates are about 20 K forT eff , 0.05 dex for log g , and 0.05 dex for most elemental abundances. These results agree with the theoretical limits from the Crámer–Rao bound calculation within a factor of 2. The majority of the accreted halo stars contributed by the Gaia–Enceladus–Sausage are discernible from the disk and in situ halo populations in the resultant [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] and [Al/Fe]–[Fe/H] abundance spaces. We also provide distance and orbital parameters for the sample stars, which spread over a distance out to ∼100 kpc. The DESI sample has a significantly higher fraction of distant (or metal-poor) stars than the other existing spectroscopic surveys, making it a powerful data set for studying the Galactic outskirts. The catalog is publicly available.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Analysis of the microphysical properties of snowfall using scanning polarimetric and vertically pointing multi-frequency Doppler radars

Radar dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) measurements from the Stony Brook Radar Observatory Ka-band scanning polarimetric radar (KASPR, 35 GHz), a W-band profiling radar (94 GHz), and a next-generation K-band (24 GHz) micro rain radar (MRRPro) were exploited for ice particle identification using triple-frequency approaches. The results indicated that two of the radar frequencies (K and Ka band) are not sufficiently separated; thus, the triple-frequency radar approaches had limited success. On the other hand, a joint analysis of DWR, mean Doppler velocity (MDV), and polarimetric radar variables indicated potential in identifying ice particle types and distinguishing among different ice growth processes and even in revealing additional microphysical details. We investigated all DWR pairs in conjunction with MDV from the KASPR profiling measurements and differential reflectivity (Z DR ) and specific differential phase (K DP ) from the KASPR quasi-vertical profiles. The DWR-versus-MDV diagrams coupled with the polarimetric observables exhibited distinct separations of particle populations attributed to different rime degrees and particle growth processes. In fallstreaks, the 35–94 GHz DWR pair increased with the magnitude of MDV corresponding to the scattering calculations for aggregates with lower degrees of riming. The DWR values further increased at lower altitudes while Z DR slightly decreased, indicating further aggregation. Particle populations with higher rime degrees had a similar increase in DWR but a 1–1.5 m s –1 larger magnitude of MDV and rapid decreases in K DP and Z DR . The analysis also depicted the early stage of riming where Z DR increased with the MDV magnitude collocated with small increases in DWR. This approach will improve quantitative estimations of snow amount and microphysical quantities such as rime mass fraction. The study suggests that triple-frequency measurements are not always necessary for in-depth ice microphysical studies and that dual-frequency polarimetric and Doppler measurements can successfully be used to gain insights into ice hydrometeor microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗