Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Policy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system

With high reliance on light-duty vehicles in the present, the future of global transportation system is also geared towards private modes, which has significant energy and emission implications. Public transportation has been argued as an alternative strategy for meeting the rising transportation demands of the growing world, especially the poor, in a sustainable and energy efficient way. The present study analyzes an important yet under-researched question – what are the long-term energy and emission implications of an electric rail based passenger transportation system for meeting both long and short distance passenter transportation needs? We analyze a suite of electric rail share scenarios with and without climate policy. In the reference scenario, the transportation system will evolve towards dominance of fossil based light-duty vehicles. We find that an electric rail policy is more successful than an economy wide climate policy in reducing transport sector energy demand and emissions. Economy wide emissions however can only be reduced through a broader climate policy, the cost of which can be reduced by hundreds of billions of dollars across the century when implemented in combination with the transport sector focused electric rail policy. Moreover, higher share of electric rail enhances energy security for oil importing nations and reduces vehicular congestion and road infrastructure requirement as well.

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios

The latest scenarios for the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide opportunities to explore future climate and air pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features. However, to what extent inadequate consideration of region-specific policies in the CMIP6 scenarios would affect regional air quality projections is still not clear. Here, we simulated China’s future PM2.5 concentrations and compositions with local policy-based scenarios and the original CMIP6 datasets, for the first time estimating future air quality differences induced by the lack of local pollution control policies in the CMIP6 scenarios. We found that the CMIP6-driven projections overestimate major chemical aerosols by 10% – 70% in 2015 and fail to capture the rapid PM2.5 concentration decline during 2015–2019. Near-term differences further lead to 43% – 49% (5 – 9 µg/m3) PM2.5 overpredictions in 2050 in CMIP6 scenarios compared with policy-based mitigation scenarios. Our study demonstrates the indispensable influences of local policies on regional analyses and suggests that the research community should incorporate more region-specific information in future scenario designs.

Cheng, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2021

The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies

Traditionally, analysis of the costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions has assumed that governments would implement idealized, optimal policies such as uniform economy-wide carbon taxes. Yet actual policies in the real world, especially in large federal governments, are often highly heterogeneous and vary in political support and administrative capabilities within a country. While the benefits of heterogeneous action have been discussed widely for experimentation and leadership, little is known about its costs. Focusing on the United States, we represent plausible variation (by more than a factor of 3) in the stringency of state-led climate policy in a process-based integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA). For a wide array of national decarbonization targets, we find that the nationwide cost from heterogeneous subnational policies is only one-tenth higher than nationally uniform policies. Such results hinge on two critical technologies (advanced biofuels and electricity) for which inter-state trade ameliorates the economic efficiencies that might arise with heterogeneous action.

Peng, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona

Abstract Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Edge Caching in Wireless Networks

With the purpose to offload data traffic in wireless networks, content caching techniques have recently been studied intensively. Using these techniques and caching a portion of the popular files at the local content servers, the users can be served with less delay. Most of the content replacement policies are based on the content popularity, that depends on the users' preferences. In practice, such information varies over time. Therefore, an approach to determine the file popularity patterns must be incorporated into caching policies. In this context, we study content caching at the wireless network edge using a deep reinforcement learning framework with Wolpertinger architecture. In particular, we propose deep actor-critic reinforcement learning based policies for both centralized and decentralized content caching. For centralized edge caching, we aim at maximizing the cache hit rate. In decentralized edge caching, we consider both the cache hit rate and transmission delay as performance metrics. These proposed frameworks are assumed to neither have any prior information on the file popularities nor know the potential variations in such information. Via simulation results, the superiority of the proposed frameworks is verified by comparing them with other policies, including least frequently used (LFU), least recently used (LRU), and first-in-first-out (FIFO) policies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Social scientist on board in long-term management of high level and/or long-lived radioactive waste in Belgium

In Belgium, the long-term management of radioactive waste is under the exclusive competence of the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (knew as ONDRAF/NIRAS). Unlike low-level waste, no institutional policy has yet been formally approved for the long-term management of high level and/or long-lived radioactive waste (knew as B and C waste). In this context, ONDRAF/NIRAS considers the public and stakeholders' participation as an essential factor in the formulation of an effective and legitimate policy. This is why it has decided to integrate them in different ways during the elaboration of the Waste Plan (ONDRAF/NIRAS-document containing guidelines to make a principled policy decision about nuclear waste management). To do so, social scientists have been regularly mobilized either as external evaluators, follow-up committee members, or participatory observants. Hence, the Waste Plan is only the first step in a long decision-making process. For a PhD student under contract with ONDRAF/NIRAS, this mandate consists of thinking out a way to construct an inter-organizational innovative communication system that would be participative, transparent and embedded in a long-term perspective, thus integrating all the further legal steps to take throughout the decision-making process. In this regard, two paradoxical constraints must be taken into account: on the one hand, my own influence on the legal decision-making process should remain limited, because of a series of constraints, lock-ins and previous decisions which have to be respected; on the other hand, ONDRAF/NIRAS expects the research conclusions to be policy relevant and useful. In this paper, the purpose is twofold. Firstly, the issues raised by this policy mandate is an opportunity to question the per-formative dimensions of the social scientist in the decision-making process and, more specifically, to have a reflexive view on our position as PhD Student. Secondly, assuming the role of 'embarked' social scientist, numerous of answers will discuss to face the different dilemmas of the researcher 'in action'. Those reflections follow on, among others, those from previous papers discussed in Quimper in April 2013 and in Leuven in June 2013. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-A-16A-01: International Medical Physics Symposium: Increasing Access to Medical Physics Education/Training and Research Excellence

In response to a world in which cancer is a growing global health challenge, there is now a greater need for US Medical Physicists and other Radiation Oncology professionals across institutions to work together and be more globally engaged in the fight against cancer. There are currently many opportunities for Medical Physicists to contribute to alleviating this pressing need, especially in helping enhance access to Medical Physics Education/training and Research Excellence across international boundaries, particularly for low and middle-income countries (LMIC), which suffer from a drastic shortage of accessible knowledge and quality training programs in radiotherapy. Many Medical Physicists are not aware of the range of opportunities that even with small effort could have a high impact. Faculty at the two CAMPEP-accredited Medical Physics Programs in New England: the University of Massachusetts Lowell and Harvard Medical School have developed a growing alliance to increase Access to Medical Physics Education/training and Research Excellence (AMPERE), and facilitate greater active involvement of U.S. Medical Physicists in helping the global fight against cancer and cancer disparities. In this symposium, AMPERE Alliance members and partners from Europe and Africa will present and discuss the growing global cancer challenge, the dearth of knowledge, research, and other barriers to providing life-saving radiotherapy in LMIC, mechanisms for meeting these challenges, the different opportunities for participation by Medical Physicists, including students and residents, and how participation can be facilitated to increase AMPERE for global health. Learning Objectives: To learn about the growing global cancer challenge, areas of greatest need and limitations to accessing knowledge and quality radiotherapy training programs, especially in LMIC; To learn about the range of opportunities for Medical Physicists, including students and residents, to work together in global health to help increase AMPERE and alleviate the growing global burden of cancer; To present and discuss a new model for harmonizing Medical Physics Training across countries and how this model (UMass and Heidelberg) could be extended to LMIC in collaboration with the IAEA; To highlight a new platform and program for facilitating contributions by Medical Physicists to increase AMPERE towards the elimination of global cancer disparities. Challenges in Cancer Control in Africa Twalib A. Ngoma, MD, Professor, Executive Director, Ocean Road Cancer Institute, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania Cancer care in Africa is beset by lack of attention, political will, cancer registries, cancer plans, human resources, financial resources and treatment facilities.. As a result of this, cancer patients in Africa are far more likely to die of their disease than those in developed countries. According to data from the WHO 750,000 new cancer cases occur in Africa every year and this number is predicted to rise by 70% by 2020. To make matters worse, an estimated 75% of cancer patients in Africa have advanced or incurable cancers at diagnosis making palliative care the most realistic approach to their management. Furthermore, Cancer prevention is nearly nonexistent, cancer detection is rare and treatment usually comes too late and is inefficient. The overall mortality-to-incidence ratio for men with cancer in the Africa is 0.75 compared with 0.54 in the developed world while the ratios for women in Africa, is 0.65 compared with 0.45 for women in the developed world. There is also limited access to radiotherapy. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whilst developed countries usually have one radiotherapy machine per 250,000 people, most African nations have only one machine per ten million people. The above numbers are alarming and speak for themselves. The only solution to improve this alarming situation is to address the major challenges which African countries face in provision of cancer services which include but not limited to lack of cancer registries, lack of funding, lack of human resources, lack of radiotherapy machines, lack of cancer drugs and lack of accessible and affordable cancer screening, early diagnosis, treatment or palliative care services. Since there are considerable differences among African countries, in my presentation I will share with the audience how we address cancer control challenges in Tanzania in general and specifically in radiation oncology. The African continent cancer plan 2013 2017 Folakemi Odedina, PhD, Professor and Director of Health Disparities, UF Health Cancer Center, University of Florida The burden of cancer is rising in Africa, in addition to current heavy burden of communicable, and other non-cancer related non—communicable diseases. Conquering cancer in Africa will require a comprehensive collaborative approach with cancer clinicians, scientists, patients, advocates, policy makers and community leaders working hand-in-hand at the local, state, national, and continent levels with the primary mission: To reduce the number of deaths from cancer and improve the quality of life of cancer patients, survivors and caregivers. Unfortunately, less than 40% of African countries have a credible cancer control policy and program. The African Organization for Research and Training in Cancer (AORTIC) decided to create an African Cancer Plan to provide cost-effective strategies that can be employed throughout the continent to fight cancer. Based on the African proverb that “It takes a village to raise a child”, the Cancer Plan provides specific strategies that can be used by individuals, employers, organizations and policy-makers to fight cancer. In addition, we have provided overarching strategies to address cancer in Africa and targeted 5-year plan for prostate, breast, cervix, lung and liver cancers. In developing this Cancer Plan, our primary goal is to decrease cancer incidence and mortality in Africa. This goal can only be achieved by stakeholders and dedicated individuals to lead and implement the strategies outlined in this plan. If you are interested in partnering with AORTIC to reduce the burden of cancer in Africa, please send an email to info@aortic-africa.org. Synergies in research and clinical care through international collaboration Thomas Bortfeld and David Gierga, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, MA Medical Physics relies on high technology that is not distributed equally. The whole spectrum of Medical Physics technologies is not available at every hospital or research institute, and not even in every high income country. One example is heavy ion therapy equipment which is currently only available in Japan, Germany and Italy. There is also a large global variation in terms of research infrastructure and focus. A student of Medical physics cannot gain broad experience, certainly not hands-on experience, by staying at one place only. While it is debatable what a good trade-off between breadth and depth in Medical Physics education is, it is generally agreed upon that some breadth is necessary. Researchers in Medical Physics have to cross borders if they need specific technologies for their projects. Therefore it is self-evident that international programs in Medical Physics education and research make sense. Yet, very few programs of this type exist. In this presentation we will report on our own experience of pursuing an international career in Medical Physics, with international student programs, and with the international exchange of researchers. We will present new or planned opportunities such as the medical beamline at CERN in Geneva. We will also report on the synergies in clinical care through international collaborations between partners in high and low income countries. One example is the partnership of the MGH/Harvard Medical School community with the oncology community and government of Botswana to form the BOTSOGO (BOTSwana Oncology Global Outreach) initiative. This collaborative effort in oncology care was spurred by existing relationships in HIV/AIDS research and care delivery developed within the Botswana-Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership (BHP). The initial efforts of the BOTSOGO initiative have been organized as follows: 1) on-site visits to share expertise in clinical cancer care for capacity building purposes (e.g. cervical brachytherapy), 2) developing a forum for multi-disciplinary case discussions and education and 3) relationship building with local stakeholders for long-term sustainability and growth. An international system for the certification of medical physicists Raymond K. Wu, Chairman, IOMP Professional Relations Committee; Chairman, AAPM Exchange Scientist Program Subcommittee An international system for the certification of medical physicists is an important issue. The International Organization for Medical Physicists (IOMP) has in collaboration with a number of member countries established the International Medical Physics Certification Board (IMPCB) to address this issue, and to provide a mechanism to mark the milestone for the professional development of clinical medical physicists. Raymond Wu, PhD, is the CEO of IMPCB and the Chairman of the IOMP Professional Relations Committee. He is the invited speaker recommended by IOMP to give a talk on this important subject. He will give the latest update of the work of IMPCB, its near term goals, and pathways to the goals. He will also discuss the importance of such an International System of certification in the training/education of next generation Medical Physicists, including those in low and middle income countries (LMIC) where such training is crucial in the fight against cancer. Learning Objectives: Understand the certification program as described in the IOMP Policy Statements. Understand the plan of the IMPCB to establish the accreditation process of national certification programs. Understand the goals of this international collaborative effort and the potential impacts to the quality of clinical medical physics practice. Medical Physics Education Across Continents: The UMass Lowell and Heidelberg University Joint Coordination Effort Erno Sajo, Director of Medical Physics, University of Massachusetts at Lowell Medical Physics education has unique flavors across institutions within the US and shows significant differences across continents. In the latter, even the definition of Medical Physics may differ. Not only is there a difference in topical coverage, but often what is considered a cohesive topic in one institution, and taught as a single course, is fragmented among several other courses in the other institution due to a different philosophy. Because of the regulatory and certification requirements, these differences impact the mobility of medical physicists across continents. As a result, physicists who wish to practice in the US or Canada but have completed their education elsewhere often find that they have to take remedial courses or even obtain a new degree in Medical Physics despite the fact that they already have one. Outreach to developing countries, therefore, is even more difficult. The University of Massachusetts Lowell and Heidelberg University recently completed a joint coordination effort, in which they identified topics that are common versus complementary in their medical physics curricula. A student exchange program was developed that permits students to take any of the common topics at the other institution while taking complementary courses as electives, which count towards their degree requirements at their home institution. Thesis research is also mutually accepted. When properly documented, in this way CAMPEP recommendations can be met across the institutions. Therefore, students participating in this program satisfy both the American Board of Radiology (ABR) requirements and the European regulatory requirements. The framework on which this collaboration rests and the cross-comparison methods developed therein may be implemented in other exchange programs and thus a similar approach can be adopted in outreach programs with developing countries. IAEA PACT Program and opportunities for support and collaboration Susan Morgan, Program Coordinator, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria In response to the developing world's cancer crisis, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) established the Program of Action for Cancer Therapy (PACT) in 2004 to fully realize the public health impact obtained through global partnerships in cancer control and technology transfer in radiation medicine. PACT's vision strives for global partnerships to confront the cancer crisis in developing countries, notably with our sister United Nations agency, the World Health Organization (WHO), and our Joint Programme on Cancer Control established in 2009. The IAEA, through PACT, the WHO, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and other cancer-related organizations work together to make a coordinated global response in supporting low and middle income (LMI) IAEA Member States in the implementation of comprehensive national cancer control programmes. PACT's goals are: To build global partnerships of cancer-related organizations committed to addressing the challenge of cancer in LMI Member States in all its aspects; To mobilize resources from charitable trusts, foundations, and others in public and private sectors sources to assist LMI Member States to develop and implement their radiation medicine capacities within a national cancer control programme (NCCP); and, To ensure the effective and sustainable transfer of radiation medicine technologies or knowledge to all LMI Member States where unmet needs exist. PACT work focuses on: imPACT: Assessing Cancer Burden PMDS: Developing Global Partnerships VUCCnet: Promoting Cancer Control Training AGaRT: Making Radiotherapy Accessible Facilitating increased participation and professional development of Medical Physicists and other Radiation Oncology professionals in global health Wilfred Ngwa, Harvard Medical School, University of Massachusetts Lowell, MA The 2014 World Health Organization (WHO) Cancer report highlights an alarming increase in the global burden of cancer. It also highlights what it terms “the cancer divide”, or disparities, evinced by a substantially higher cancer burden in low and middle income countries (LMIC) in Asia, Central/South America and Africa. The WHO even predicts a potential African cancer epidemic by 2020 if significant progress is not made in global cancer control efforts. Evidence that collaborative global health approaches have led to major progress in controlling infectious diseases including in LMIC suggests that similar approaches will be useful for non-communicable diseases like cancer. In consonance with this, leaders in cancer policy from the USA and 14 economically diverse countries recently concluded that successful campaigns to control cancers with existing methods and to improve current strategies will increasingly depend onconcerted multinational collaborations (Sci Transl Med 5, p. 175, 2013). Hence there is growing urgency for increasing collaborative global cancer Care Research and Education (CaRE), as well as support for greater effectiveness of already existing initiatives involving partners from different nations, diverse economic and cultural backgrounds. The good news is that there is a growing awareness of the importance of global health and growing interest including amongst Medical Physicists and other Radiation oncology (RadOnc) professionals to participate in global health. However, many are unaware of currently existing opportunities for participation that even with small effort could have a high impact. Over 50% of cancer patients in the developed world depend on RadOnc professionals for their treatment, and hence participation of RadOnc professionals in global health efforts in the global fight against cancer is crucial. It is also important that the next generation of RadOnc professionals (students, and residents) be trained with a global perspective, to be global health leaders in cancer CaRE. This presentation will highlight a novel platform for enhancing participation and professional development of Medical Physicists and other RadOnc professionals in global health. Ways in which this platform can facilitate contributions by Medical Physicists and other RadOnc Professionals, students and residents in global health towards the elimination of global cancer disparities will be discussed. This will be followed by a panel discussion by some of the pioneers/leaders in collaborative global cancer CaRE on the growing cancer burden, challenges and opportunities for greater active involvement and professional development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Drought-tolerant Biofuel Crops could be a Critical Hedge for Biorefineries

Numerous researchers and policymakers have raised concerns over the adverse effects that growing bioenergy crops on prime agricultural land has on food prices, carbon balances, water demand and environmental health. Biofuel policies such as the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and the second US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) already regulate biofuels for carbon emissions that occur due to indirect land use change. Biofuel producers can address these concerns and sidestep steep penalties for indirect land use change if they grow biofuel crops on land that has little or no economic value. The focus of most biofuel research over the last decade has been the development of biofuels from cellulosic feedstocks. It has been argued that deriving biofuels from non-food biomass, like switchgrass, and growing the crop on low value land would minimize competition with food production. Moreover, using non-irrigated rain-fed feedstocks can substantially reduce the lifecycle footprint of cellulosic biofuels. This has motivated scientists to study if biofuel crops can be genetically engineered to thrive on low-value, marginal lands. One example is the development of switchgrass genomics designed to enhance productivity. For a biofuel business, investing in the development of a product in expectation of a specific policy regime (i.e. the regulation of land use in fuel policy) is fraught with risk. While we believe that all fuel policies worldwide should reward biofuel crops grown on land that has little or no potential for growing food crops, there is good reason to believe that such globally coordinated policy on the subject of land use is unlikely. Hence, in this article, we assess the economic benefits of drought-tolerant switchgrass that may accrue to biofuel businesses independent of any incentives for the use of marginal land. The frequency of extreme weather and drought has increased in the U.S. over the last decade. While some researchers estimate that droughts are decreasing in severity and duration, most climate scientists report that advancing climate change is expected to worsen droughts throughout the U.S., especially in the Midwest, which is the nation’s largest producer of food crops. Scientists are increasingly convinced that climate change is leading to warmer extremes including severity of precipitation extremes. In the more likely scenario of worsening drought, we find that drought-tolerance of the cellulosic crop is critical for the biofuel industry to remain competitive, irrespective of whether the crop is grown on marginal or prime agricultural land. In other words, we find that over the lifetime of a typical biorefinery, there could be one or more years when a crop is likely to be severely diminished due to drought conditions, thereby driving cellulosic ethanol prices substantially higher than would otherwise be the case.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Development of a SPARK Training Dataset

In its first five years, the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI) sponsored more than 400 undergraduate, graduate, and post-doctoral students in internships and research positions (Wyse 2012). In the past seven years, the NGSI program has, and continues to produce a large body of scientific, technical, and policy work in targeted core safeguards capabilities and human capital development activities. Not only does the NGSI program carry out activities across multiple disciplines, but also across all U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)/NNSA locations in the United States. However, products are not readily shared among disciplines and across locations, nor are they archived in a comprehensive library. Rather, knowledge of NGSI-produced literature is localized to the researchers, clients, and internal laboratory/facility publication systems such as the Electronic Records and Information Capture Architecture (ERICA) at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). There is also no incorporated way of analyzing existing NGSI literature to determine whether the larger NGSI program is achieving its core safeguards capabilities and activities. A complete library of NGSI literature could prove beneficial to a cohesive, sustainable, and more economical NGSI program. The Safeguards Platform for Automated Retrieval of Knowledge (SPARK) has been developed to be a knowledge storage, retrieval, and analysis capability to capture safeguards knowledge to exist beyond the lifespan of NGSI. During the development process, it was necessary to build a SPARK training dataset (a corpus of documents) for initial entry into the system and for demonstration purposes. We manipulated these data to gain new information about the breadth of NGSI publications, and they evaluated the science-policy interface at PNNL as a practical demonstration of SPARK’s intended analysis capability. The analysis demonstration sought to answer the question, “Who leads research and development at PNNL, scientists or policy researchers?” The analysis was inconclusive as to whether policy researchers or scientists are primary drivers for research at PNNL. However, the dataset development and analysis activity did demonstrate the utility and usability of the SPARK dataset. After the initiation of the NGSI program there is a clear increase in the number of publications of safeguards products. Employing the natural language analysis tool IN SPIRE™ showed the presence of vocation- and topic-specific vernacular within NGSI sub-topics. The methodology developed to define the scope of the dataset was useful in describing safeguards applications, but may be applicable for research on other topics beyond safeguards. The analysis emphasized the need for an expanded dataset to fully understand the scope of safeguards publications and research both nationally and internationally. As the SPARK dataset grows to include publications outside PNNL, topics crosscutting disciplines and DOE/NNSA locations should become more apparent. NGSI was established in 2008 to cultivate the next generation of safeguards professionals and support the development of core safeguards capabilities (NNSA 2012). Now a robust system to preserve and share institutional memory such as SPARK is needed to inspire and equip the next generation of safeguards experts, technologies, and policies.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on water availability in the Nile Basin over the longer term. Depending on the GERD fill rate, short-term (e.g., within its first 5 years of operation) annual losses in Egyptian food production may peak briefly at 25 percent. Long-term (e.g., 15 to 30 year) cumulative losses in Egypt's food production may be less than 3 percent regardless of the fill rate, with the GERD having essentially no impact on projected annual food production in Egypt about 25 years after opening. For the quick fill rates, the short-term losses may be sufficient to create an important decrease in overall household health among the general population, which, along with other economic stressors and different strategies employed by the government, could lead to social unrest. Third, and perhaps most importantly, our modeling suggests that the GERD's effect on Egypt's food and water resources is small when compared to the effect of projected Egyptian population and economic growth (and the concomitant increase in water consumption). The latter dominating factors are exacerbated in the modeling by natural climate variability and may be further exacerbated by climate change. Our modeling suggests that these growth dynamics combine to create long-term water scarcity in Egypt, regardless of the Ethiopian project. All else being equal, filling strategies that employ slow fill rates for the GERD (e.g., 8 to 13 years) may mitigate the risks in future scenarios for Egypt somewhat, but no policy or action regarding the GERD is likely to significantly alleviate the projected water scarcity in Egypt's Nile Basin. However, general beliefs among the Egyptian populace regarding the GERD as a major contributing factor for scarcities in Egypt could make Ethiopia a scapegoat for Egyptian grievances -- contributing to social unrest in Egypt and generating undesirable (and unnecessary) tension between these two countries. Such tension could threaten the constructive relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia that are vital to maintaining stability and security within and between their respective regional spheres of influence, Middle East and North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Clean and Secure Energy from Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Resources

This report summarizes the significant findings from the Clean and Secure Energy from Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Resources program sponsored by the Department of Energy through the National Energy Technology Laboratory. There were four principle areas of research; Environmental, legal, and policy issues related to development of oil shale and oil sands resources; Economic and environmental assessment of domestic unconventional fuels industry; Basin-scale assessment of conventional and unconventional fuel development impacts; and Liquid fuel production by in situ thermal processing of oil shale Multiple research projects were conducted in each area and the results have been communicated via sponsored conferences, conference presentations, invited talks, interviews with the media, numerous topical reports, journal publications, and a book that summarizes much of the oil shale research relating to Utah’s Uinta Basin. In addition, a repository of materials related to oil shale and oil sands has been created within the University of Utah’s Institutional Repository, including the materials generated during this research program. Below is a listing of all topical and progress reports generated by this project and submitted to the Office of Science and Technical Information (OSTI). A listing of all peer-reviewed publications generated as a result of this project is included at the end of this report; Geomechanical and Fluid Transport Properties 1 (December, 2015); Validation Results for Core-Scale Oil Shale Pyrolysis (February, 2015); and Rates and Mechanisms of Oil Shale Pyrolysis: A Chemical Structure Approach (November, 2014); Policy Issues Associated With Using Simulation to Assess Environmental Impacts (November, 2014); Policy Analysis of the Canadian Oil Sands Experience (September, 2013); V-UQ of Generation 1 Simulator with AMSO Experimental Data (August, 2013); Lands with Wilderness Characteristics, Resource Management Plan Constraints, and Land Exchanges (March, 2012); Conjunctive Surface and Groundwater Management in Utah: Implications for Oil Shale and Oil Sands Development (May, 2012); Development of CFD-Based Simulation Tools for In Situ Thermal Processing of Oil Shale/Sands (February, 2012); Core-Based Integrated Sedimentologic, Stratigraphic, and Geochemical Analysis of the Oil Shale Bearing Green River Formation, Uinta Basin, Utah (April, 2011); Atomistic Modeling of Oil Shale Kerogens and Asphaltenes Along with their Interactions with the Inorganic Mineral Matrix (April, 2011); Pore Scale Analysis of Oil Shale/Sands Pyrolysis (March, 2011); Land and Resource Management Issues Relevant to Deploying In-Situ Thermal Technologies (January, 2011); Policy Analysis of Produced Water Issues Associated with In-Situ Thermal Technologies (January, 2011); and Policy Analysis of Water Availability and Use Issues for Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Development (March, 2010)

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Postwar Laboratory

Recent discussion of project policy has met with a widespread feeling that important alternatives were not being properly considered. These alternatives will be discussed here from the point of view of research personnel concerned with formulation a laboratory policy based on the wartime experience of Los Alamos. This policy is discussed on the primary assumption that the national investment here in facilities, in tradition, and in the existence of an going research and development laboratory organization ought not to be lightly discarded, but also ought not to be wholly continued without reexamination under the new conditions of peace. Others will discuss this policy more broadly, and others will make the decision of continuation; but the purpose of the present document is to suggest a policy which might help answer the question of what to do with Los Alamos.It is the thesis of this document that fundamental research in fields underlying the military utilization of atomic energy ought to be separated from all development testing and production. It still remains to argue which of these separate functions this mesa should carry out. In the next sections it is proposed to describe what this laboratory can do and what it should stop trying to do, and on this detailed basis a general program is proposed.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2017

Analyzing The Impacts of the Biogas-to-Electricity Purchase Incentives on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model

This analysis represents the biogas-to-electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) as a point of purchase incentive and tests the impact of this incentive on EV deployment using a vehicle consumer choice model. The credit value generated under this policy was calculated in a number of scenarios based on electricity use of each power train choice on a yearly basis over the 15 year vehicle lifetime, accounting for the average electric vehicle miles travelled and vehicle efficiency, competition for biogas-derived electricity among electric vehicles (EVs), the RIN equivalence value and the time value of money. The credit value calculation in each of these scenarios is offered upfront as a point of purchase incentive for EVs using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) vehicle choice model, which tracks sales, fleet size and energy use over time. The majority of the scenarios use a proposed RIN equivalence value, which increases the credit value as a way to explore the analysis space. Additional model runs show the relative impact of the equivalence value on EV deployment. The MA3T model output shows that a consumer incentive accelerates the deployment of EVs for all scenarios relative to the baseline (no policy) case. In the scenario modeled to represent the current biogas-to-electricity generation capacity (15 TWh/year) with a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, the policy leads to an additional 1.4 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and 3.5 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025 beyond the no-policy case of 1.3 million PHEVs and 2.1 million BEVs when the full value of the credit is passed on to the consumer. In 2030, this increases to 2.4 million PHEVs and 7.3 million BEVs beyond the baseline. This larger impact on BEVs relative to PHEVs is due in part to the larger credit that BEVs receive in the model based on the greater percentage of electric vehicle miles traveled by BEVs relative to PHEVs. In this scenario 2025 also represents the last year in which biogas-derived electricity is able to fully supply the transportation electricity demand in the model. After 2025, the credit value declines on a per vehicle basis. At the same time a larger fraction of the credit may shift towards biogas producers in order to incent additional biogas production. The expanded 41 TWh/year biogas availability scenarios represent an increase beyond today s generation capacity and allow greater eRIN generation. With a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, when all of the credit is directed towards reducing vehicle purchase prices, the 41 TWh/year biogas scenario results in 4.1 million additional PHEVs and 12.2 million additional BEVs on the road in 2030 beyond the baseline of 2.5 million PHEVs and 6.1 million BEVs. Under this expanded biogas capacity, biogas-derived electricity generation is able to fully supply electricity for a fleet of over 21 million EVs (15.6 million BEVs and 5.8 million PHEVs) on a yearly basis. In addition to assessing the full value credit scenarios described above, multiple scenarios were analyzed to determine the impact if only a fraction of the credit value was passed on to the consumer. In all of these cases, the EV deployment was scaled back as the fraction of the credit that was passed on to the consumer was reduced. These scenarios can be used to estimate the impact if the credit value is reduced in other ways as well, as demonstrated by the scenarios where the current (22.6 kWh/RIN) equivalence value was used. The EV deployment that results from an equivalence value of 22.6 kWh/RIN equivalence value is roughly equivalent to the EV deployment observed in the 25% case using the 5.24 kWh/RIN equivalence value. A higher equivalence value means that a smaller number of credits, and therefore value, is created for each kWh, and therefore the impact on EV deployment is reduced. This analysis shows several of the drivers that will impact eRIN generation and credit value, and tests the impact of an eRIN point of purchase incentive on EV deployment. This additional incentive can accelerate the deployment of EVs when it is used to reduce vehicle purchase prices. However, the ultimate impact of this policy, as modeled here, will be determined by future RIN prices, the extent to which eRIN credit value can be passed on to the consumer as a point of purchase incentive and the equivalence value.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

As states have gained experience with renewable portfolio standards (RPS) policies, many have made significant revisions to existing programs. In 2015 and 2016, seven states raised and extended their final RPS targets, while another state enacted a new RPS policy (Barbose 2016b). Interest in expanding and strengthening state RPS programs may continue, while efforts like recent proposals in many states to repeal or freeze existing RPS policies may also persist. In either context, questions about the potential costs, benefits, and other impacts of RPS programs are usually central to the decision-making process. This report follows on previous analyses that have focused on the historical costs, benefits, and other impacts of existing state RPS programs (Heeter et al. 2014; Wiser et al. 2016a). This report examines RPS outcomes prospectively, considering both current RPS policies as well as a potential expansion of those policies. The goal of this work is to provide a consistent and independent analytical methodology for that examination. This analysis relies on National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to estimate changes to the U.S. electric power sector across a number of scenarios and sensitivity cases, focusing on the 2015–2050 timeframe. Based on those modeled results, we evaluate the costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy contributing to RPS compliance using the suite of methods employed in a number of recent studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): a report examining retrospective benefits and impacts of RPS programs (Wiser et al. 2016a), the Wind Vision report (DOE 2015), the On the Path to SunShot report focusing on environmental benefits (Wiser et al. 2016b), and the Hydropower Vision report (DOE 2016).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Arctic Futures 2050 Conference. Final Report

The Arctic Futures 2050 Conference was designed as a novel convening of Arctic scientists, Indigenous people, and decision makers, including policy makers at all levels of government. The conference was held 4–6 September 2019 in Washington, D.C. and gathered nearly 400 participants to explore six questions: What do we know, and what do we need to know about the Arctic—and why does it matter? What challenges confront policy makers in the rapidly changing Arctic? What basic research is needed to inform responses to Arctic change? What applied research is needed to inform responses to change? What tools can facilitate informing policy making with science and Indigenous knowledge? What opportunities exist for partnerships between policy makers and scientists? A conference report (see: https://www.searcharcticscience.org/arctic-2050/conference-2019/products) detailed all conference discussions. The main conference conclusion was that holistic understanding and useful adaptation to rapid Arctic change requires bringing together scientists, Indigenous Knowledge holders, and policy makers in all phases of defining the problems, conducting research, and sharing knowledge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics

PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗