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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

Initial Development of A Digital Twin Model for an Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Emulation Rig

In support of aviation fuel burn and emission reduction goals, NASA is pursing high-payoff research investments that promise to transform aviation. This includes investments in Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP), which relies on the generation, storage, transmission, and use of electrical power for producing thrust and optimizing propulsion system efficiency. Multiple technology challenges must be addressed to unlock the full potential of EAP. This includes advances in propulsion controls, which will be vital for ensuring coordinated efficient operation of the complex integrated subsystems that comprise EAP architectures. To support EAP controls research, the NASA Glenn Research Center has developed the Hybrid Propulsion Emulation Rig (HyPER). The HyPER laboratory hardware includes shaft-mounted electric machines, power converters, power supplies, power distribution cables, and an energy storage device that can be reconfigured to represent a variety of EAP architectures. It also includes an integrated real-time computer system that hosts developed EAP control software and turbomachinery simulations. This enables the electrical system and rotating shafts of EAP designs to be implemented in actual hardware and integrated with turbomachinery simulations and system-level EAP control logic implemented in software. In this form, the HyPER laboratory provides a partially simulated, partially hardware-in-the-loop test environment enabling the initial development and evaluation of EAP control technology. A prerequisite for the development of EAP control designs is the availability of a system model that accurately reflects the operation of the electrical system hardware. To support this need, a digital twin model of the HyPER electrical system hardware is under development. This model is being coded in the MATLAB Simulink environment and uses the NASA-developed Electrical Modeling and Thermal Analysis Toolbox (EMTAT) to construct a digital twin framework. EMTAT contains generic electrical component building blocks that are simulated at turbomachinery timescales. Associated inputs and outputs allow the blocks to be combined to model complete electrical systems. The EMTAT blocks also contain adjustable internal maps and parameters that can be set to reflect the operation of a specific electrical component. For the HyPER digital twin, the settings of these EMTAT block internal maps and parameters is determined through machine learning approaches applied to characterization run data collected from the laboratory. During characterization runs the laboratory electrical system hardware is subjected to a full range of torque, speed, and power settings. Acquired data is then used to estimate EMTAT block parameters using a variety of machine learning techniques. The resulting digital twin model is found to match the operation of actual HyPER hardware with an accuracy suitable for control development purposes. It also holds promise for other applications including modeling the performance of HyPER laboratory reconfigurations and model-based anomaly detection. Planned follow-on work to automate post-processing of acquired laboratory data to update the HyPER digital twin model will also be presented and discussed.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗

Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiment-2 (ASPIRE2) Parachute Modeling and Flight Mechanics Performance

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiment-2 (ASPIRE2) program is designed to test and qualify the supersonic parachute for the Mars entry, descent, and landing stage of the Mars Sample Return campaign. The ASPIRE2 test was planned for early 2026 and would have involved testing the parachute at deployments of Mach 2.1 and higher load conditions than previous Mars missions. The ASPIRE2 simulation builds upon a previous test framework from the ASPIRE tests in 2017-2018 used to qualify the Mars 2020 parachute, but due to new requirements, the modeling and simulation for ASPIRE2 has needed development and characterization of different sensitivities. This paper looks at the mission design as of mid-2024 and presents the trade space for qualifying the parachute in a dynamic environment.

Evan Roelke↗

Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiment-2 (ASPIRE2) Parachute Modeling and Flight Mechanics Performance

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiment-2 (ASPIRE2) program is designed to test and qualify the supersonic parachute for the Mars entry, descent, and landing stage of the Mars Sample Return campaign. The ASPIRE2 test was planned for early 2026 and would have involved testing the parachute at deployments of Mach 2.1 and higher load conditions than previous Mars missions. The ASPIRE2 simulation builds upon a previous test framework from the ASPIRE tests in 2017-2018 used to qualify the Mars 2020 parachute, but due to new requirements, the modeling and simulation for ASPIRE2 has needed development and characterization of different sensitivities. This paper looks at the mission design as of mid-2024 and presents the trade space for qualifying the parachute in a dynamic environment.

Evan Roelke↗

Performance characteristics of a model VTOL lift fan in crossflow.

This paper presents a summary of principal results obtained from crossflow tests of a model 15-in.-diam lift fan installed in a wing in the NASA Lewis Research Center, 9 by 15 ft V/STOL Propulsion Wind Tunnel. Tests were run with and without exit louvers over a range of tunnel air speeds, fan speeds, and wing angle of attack. Fan thrust in crossflow was influenced by two principal factors: the effects of inflow distortion on blade-row performance, and changes in fan stage operating point brought about by changes in back pressure ratio. In this particular fan, flow separation on the inlet bellmouth did not appear to be a serious problem for crossflow operation.

Lieblein, S.↗

Aerodynamic performance of 0.4066-scale model of JT8D refan stage with S-duct inlet

A scale model of the JT8D refan stage was tested with a scale model of the S-duct inlet design for the refanned Boeing 727 center engine. Detailed survey data of pressures, temperatures, and flow angles were obtained over a range of flows at speeds from 70 to 97 percent of design speed. Two S-duct configurations were tested; one with a bellmouth inlet and the other with a flight lip inlet. The results indicated that the overall performance was essentially unaffected by the distortion generated by the S-duct inlet. The stall weight flow increased by less than 0.5 kg/sec (approximately 1.5% of design flow) with the S-duct inlet compared with that obtained with uniform flow. The detailed measurements indicated that the inlet guide vane (IGV) significantly reduced circumferential variations. For example, the flow angles ahead of the IGV were positive in the right half of the inlet and negative in the left half. Behind the IGV, the flow angles tended to be more uniform circumferentially.

Moore, R. D.↗

Calculations of Diffuser Flows with an Anisotropic K-Epsilon Model

A newly developed anisotropic K-epsilon model is applied to calculate three axisymmetric diffuser flows with or without separation. The new model uses a quadratic stress-strain relation and satisfies the realizability conditions, i.e., it ensures both the positivity of the turbulent normal stresses and the Schwarz' inequality between any fluctuating velocities. Calculations are carried out with a finite-element method. A second-order accurate, bounded convection scheme and sufficiently fine grids are used to ensure numerical credibility of the solutions. The standard K-epsilon model is also used in order to highlight the performance of the new model. Comparison with the experimental data shows that the anisotropic K-epsilon model performs consistently better than does the standard K-epsilon model in all of the three test cases.

Zhu, J.↗

Model-Based Thermal System Design Optimization for the James Webb Space Telescope

Spacecraft thermal model validation is normally performed by comparing model predictions with thermal test data and reducing their discrepancies to meet the mission requirements. Based on thermal engineering expertise, the model input parameters are adjusted to tune the model output response to the test data. The end result is not guaranteed to be the best solution in terms of reduced discrepancy and the process requires months to complete. A model-based methodology was developed to perform the validation process in a fully automated fashion and provide mathematical bases to the search for the optimal parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies between model and data. The methodology was successfully applied to several thermal subsystems of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Global or quasiglobal optimal solutions were found and the total execution time of the model validation process was reduced to about two weeks. The model sensitivities to the parameters, which are required to solve the optimization problem, can be calculated automatically before the test begins and provide a library for sensitivity studies. This methodology represents a crucial commodity when testing complex, large-scale systems under time and budget constraints. Here, results for the JWST Core thermal system will be presented in detail.

Cataldo, Giuseppe↗

Using Neural Networks to Improve the Performance of Radiative Transfer Modeling Used for Geometry Dependent Surface Lambertian-Equivalent Reflectivity Calculations

Surface Lambertian-equivalent reflectivity (LER) is important for trace gas retrievals in the direct calculation of cloud fractions and indirect calculation of the air mass factor. Current trace gas retrievals use climatological surface LER's. Surface properties that impact the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) as well as varying satellite viewing geometry can be important for retrieval of trace gases. Geometry Dependent LER (GLER) captures these effects with its calculation of sun normalized radiances (I/F) and can be used in current LER algorithms (Vasilkov et al. 2016). Pixel by pixel radiative transfer calculations are computationally expensive for large datasets. Modern satellite missions such as the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) produce very large datasets as they take measurements at much higher spatial and spectral resolutions. Look up table (LUT) interpolation improves the speed of radiative transfer calculations but complexity increases for non-linear functions. Neural networks perform fast calculations and can accurately predict both non-linear and linear functions with little effort.

Geometry Dependent LER (GLER) capture↗

Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

radioisotope power system↗

A Statistical Model to Predict the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

This paper introduces a logistic regression model for the extratropical transition(ET) of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific, using elastic net regularization to select predictors and estimate coefficients.Predictors are chosen from the 1979-2017 best track and reanalysis datasets, and verification is done against the tropical/extratropical labels in the best track data. In an independent test set, the model skillfully predicts ET at lead times up to two days, with latitude and sea surface temperature as its most important predictors. At a lead time of 24 h, it predicts ET with a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.4 in the North Atlantic, and 0.6 in the Western North Pacific. It identifies 80% of storms undergoing ET in the North Atlantic, and 92% of those in the Western North Pacific. 90% of transition time errors are less than 24 h. Select examples of the model's performance on individual storms illustrate its strengths and weaknesses.Two versions of the model are presented: an "operational model" that may provide baseline guidance for operational forecasts, and a "hazard model"that can be integrated into statistical TC risk models. As instantaneous diagnostics for tropical/extratropical status, both models' zero lead time predictions perform about as well as the widely used Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) in the Western North Pacific and better than the CPS in the North Atlantic, and predict the timings of the transitions better than CPS in both basins.

Melanie Bieli↗

Fundamentals of Modeling, Data Assimilation, and High-performance Computing

This lecture will introduce the concepts of modeling, data assimilation and high- performance computing as it relates to the study of atmospheric composition. The lecture will work from basic definitions and will strive to provide a framework for thinking about development and application of models and data assimilation systems. It will not provide technical or algorithmic information, leaving that to textbooks, technical reports, and ultimately scientific journals. References to a number of textbooks and papers will be provided as a gateway to the literature.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Open Innovation at NASA: A New Business Model for Advancing Human Health and Performance Innovations

This paper describes a new business model for advancing NASA human health and performance innovations and demonstrates how open innovation shaped its development. A 45 percent research and technology development budget reduction drove formulation of a strategic plan grounded in collaboration. We describe the strategy execution, including adoption and results of open innovation initiatives, the challenges of cultural change, and the development of virtual centers and a knowledge management tool to educate and engage the workforce and promote cultural change.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

Analytical and experimental study of control effort associated with model reference adaptive control

Numerical simulation results presently obtained for the performance of model reference adaptive control (MRAC) are experimentally verified, with a view to accounting for differences between the plant and the reference model after the control function has been brought to bear. MRAC is both experimentally and analytically applied to a single-degree-of-freedom system, as well as analytically to a MIMO system having controlled differences between the reference model and the plant. The control effort is noted to be sensitive to differences between the plant and the reference model.

Messer, R. S.↗

On the use and the performance of software reliability growth models

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

Keiller, Peter A.↗

Integrating Reliability Analysis with a Performance Tool

A large number of commercial simulation tools support performance oriented studies of complex computer and communication systems. Reliability of these systems, when desired, must be obtained by remodeling the system in a different tool. This has obvious drawbacks: (1) substantial extra effort is required to create the reliability model; (2) through modeling error the reliability model may not reflect precisely the same system as the performance model; (3) as the performance model evolves one must continuously reevaluate the validity of assumptions made in that model. In this paper we describe an approach, and a tool that implements this approach, for integrating a reliability analysis engine into a production quality simulation based performance modeling tool, and for modeling within such an integrated tool. The integrated tool allows one to use the same modeling formalisms to conduct both performance and reliability studies. We describe how the reliability analysis engine is integrated into the performance tool, describe the extensions made to the performance tool to support the reliability analysis, and consider the tool's performance.

Nicol, David M.↗