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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal

To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.

Stone, Peter H.↗

Development of the Next Generation Gas Trap for the Space Station Internal Thermal Control System

The current dual-membrane gas trap is designed to remove non-condensed gases (NCG) from the Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) coolant on board the International Space Station (ISS). To date it has successfully served its purpose of preventing depriming, overspeed, and shutdown of the ITCS pump. However, contamination in the ITCS coolant has adversely affected the gas venting rate and lifetime of the gas trap, warranting a development effort for a next-generation gas trap. Design goals are to meet or exceed the current requirements to (1) include greater operating ranges and conditions, (2) eliminate reliance on the current hydrophilic tube fabrication process, and (3) increase operational life and tolerance to particulate and microbial growth fouling. In addition, the next generation gas trap will essentially be a 'dropin" design such that no modifications to the ITCS pump package assembly (PPA) will be required, and the implementation of the new design will not affect changes to the ITCS operational conditions, interfaces, or software. This paper will present the initial membrane module design and development work which has included (1) a trade study among several conceptual designs, (2) performance modeling of a hydrophobic-only design, and (3) small-scale development test data for the hydrophobic-only design. Testing has shown that the hydrophobic-only design is capable of performing even better than the current dual-membrane design for both steady-state gas removal and gas slug removal.

Leimkuehler, Thomas O.↗

Modeling a Nb3Sn Cryounit in GPT at UITF

Nb₃Sn is a prospective material for future superconducting RF (SRF) accelerator cavities. The material can achieve higher quality factors, higher temperature operation and potentially higher accelerating gradients (E_{acc} 96 MV/m) compared to conventional niobium. In this work, we performed modeling of the Upgraded Injector Test Facility (UITF) at Jefferson Lab utilizing newly constructed Nb₃Sn cavities. We studied the effects of the buncher cavity and varied the gun voltages from 200-500 keV. We have calibrated and optimized the SRF cavity gradients and phases for the Nb₃Sn five-cell cavities energy gains with the framework of General Particle Tracer (GPT). Our calculations show the beam goes cleanly through the unit. There is full energy gain out of the second SRF cavity but not from the first SRF cavity due to non-relativistic phase shifts.

Pokharel, S.↗

Genetic Algorithm for Optimization of Neural Networks for Bayesian Inference of Model Uncertainty

The objective of this work was to develop a genetic optimization algorithm that can design a neural network capable of producing uncertainty estimates along with predictions. This algorithm is necessary because the inclusion of uncertainty modeling in a neural network greatly complicates the network’s design space, making the development of a converging model extremely difficult and time consuming. The genetic algorithm presented in this work uses a number of value ranges for various configurable neural network parameters to create a randomly generated population of network architectures. The initially generated population is then evolved over the course of several generations, with the best performing models breeding to produce novel network configurations. Mutations are randomly applied to the network designs to facilitate the development of adaptations beneficial to the task being performed. An experiment was conducted to validate the proposed algorithm, in which the genetic optimizer was tasked with producing a neural network capable of predicting the sound pressure level (SPL) resulting from jet-surface interaction (JSI) noise. The data used for this task was generated at the NASA Glenn Research Center in the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory. Starting with an initial population size of 35 randomly generated networks, and evolved over the course of 10 generations, the genetic algorithm produced a design able to predict SPL as a result of JSI noise within 0.272 dB, on average.

Genetic algorithm↗

Mesoscale modeling to inform Bison models of accident tolerant fuel concepts

U 3 Si 2 and doped UO 2 have been under investigation in recent years as potential accident-tolerant fuel concepts. In this report, lower-length scale studies of these fuel concepts carried out during Fiscal Year 2020 are detailed. U 3 Si 2 is a potential accident-tolerant fuel that shows promise due to its high thermal conductivity and higher uranium density relative to UO 2 . However, its swelling and fission gas release behavior in light water reactor (LWR) conditions is relatively unknown. To provide mechanistic insight and determine parameters for engineering-scale fuel performance modeling of pellet-form U 3 Si 2 , phase-field simulations of the growth, interconnection, and venting of intergranular fission gas bubbles were performed. The fractional coverage of the grain boundary and the fraction of bubble area that is vented were calculated as a function of time. From the simulation data, the fractional grain boundary coverage at saturation, an important parameter needed in engineering-scale modeling of swelling and fission gas release, was determined. Multiple simulations were run to determine the uncertainty in the calculated value. The effect of model assumptions and input parameters that are not well known was evaluated. Simulation results are compared to related theoretical and computational work. Based on the simulation results, a value of 0.60 for the fractional grain boundary coverage at saturation is recommended for U 3 Si 2 fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

OC7 phase I: Toward practical sea-state-dependent modeling of hydrodynamic viscous drag and damping

Here, this article presents a collaborative research campaign under the OC7 project on refining the engineering modeling approach for hydrodynamic viscous drag and damping on floating wind platforms, focusing on the adjustment of hydrodynamic drag and damping coefficients for different sea states. The participant simulation results show significant improvements over the previous OC6 project in predicting the low-frequency resonance motion under nonoperational conditions. The improvements are mainly due to enhanced modeling, including the adoption of wave stretching, and directly tuning the coefficients to measured platform motion in waves instead of free decay. For accurate predictions of mean- and slow-drift motion, the better performing models use a decreasing column splash zone drag coefficient and increasing surge damping/drag with increasing wave height. The model tuning for heave and pitch resonance shows less consistency. Generally, both quadratic drag and additional heave or pitch damping are needed for accurate predictions. Alternatively, a quadratic drag formulation with velocity filtering for the rectangular pontoons leads to improved predictions without additional damping. This model is also potentially more predictive, requiring minimal adjustment to its parameters for different conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) in CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer

The Center-Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Automation System (CTAS), developed at NASA Ames Research Center for assisting controllers in the management and control of air traffic in the extended terminal area, supports the modeling of more than four hundred aircraft types. However, 90% of them are supported indirectly by mapping them to one of a relatively few aircraft types for which CTAS has detailed drag and engine thrust models. On the other hand, the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA), developed and maintained by Eurocontrol, supports more than 300 aircraft types, about one third of which are directly supported, i.e. they have validated performance data. All these data were made available for CTAS by integrating BADA version 3.8 into CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer (TS). Several validation tools were developed and used to validate the integrated code and to evaluate the accuracy of trajectory predictions generated using CTAS "native" and BADA Aircraft Performance Models (APM) comparing them with radar track data. Results of these comparisons indicate that the two models have different strengths and weaknesses. The BADA APM can improve the accuracy of CTAS predictions at least for some aircraft types, especially small aircraft, and for some flight phases, especially climb.

Abramson, Michael↗

Evaluation of WRF-Solar Cloud Forecast Using the NSRDB: Preprint

Cloud forecast is a crucial component in predicting solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Assessing cloud properties from the NWP models requires significant work due to the need for high-quality data, spatial analysis covering model extent, and detailed analysis of model performance for different types of clouds. This study presents an evaluation of the WRF-Solar cloud forecast using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). We propose an evaluation framework applied to a single model prediction as well as ensemble-based forecasts. Various cloud detection metrics are calculated when comparing with the satellite-derived dataset. The mismatched clouds from the WRF-Solar model are quantified using nine cloud types classified by cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The results based on the WRF-Solar forecasts covering the entire U.S. for the full year of 2018 shows mismatched cloud frequency in the range of 8% - 46% for thick and high-level (deep convective) to thin and low-level (cumulus) clouds.

cloud mask forecast↗

Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Model Validation

In this work, medium scale (30 cm diameter) methanol pool fires were simulated using the latest fire modeling suite implemented in Sierra/Fuego, a low Mach number multiphysics reacting flow code. The sensitivity of model outputs to various model parameters was studied with the objective of providing model validation. This work also assesses model performance relative to other recently published large eddy simulations (LES) of the same validation case. Two pool surface boundary conditions were simulated. The first was a prescribed fuel mass flux and the second used an algorithm to predict mass flux based on a mass and energy balance at the fuel surface. Gray gas radiation model parameters (absorption coefficients and gas radiation sources) were varied to assess radiant heat losses to the surroundings and pool surface. The radiation model was calibrated by comparing the simulated radiant fraction of the plume to experimental data. The effects of mesh resolution were also quantified starting with a grid resolution representative of engineering type fire calculations and then uniformly refining that mesh in the plume region. Simulation data were compared to experimental data collected at the University of Waterloo and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Validation data included plume temperature, radial and axial velocities, velocity temperature turbulent correlations, velocity velocity turbulent correlations, radiant and convective heat fluxes to the pool surface, and plume radiant fraction. Additional analyses were performed in the pool boundary layer to assess simulated flame anchoring and the effect on convective heat fluxes. This work assesses the capability of the latest Fuego physics and chemistry model suite and provides additional insight into pool fire modeling for nonluminous, non-sooting flames.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling of Supercritical CO2 Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchangers Under Extreme Conditions. Part I: Correlation Development

Abstract High-temperature supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles are promising possibilities for future stationary power generation and hybrid electric propulsion applications. Heat exchangers are critical components in supercritical CO2 thermal cycles and require accurate correlations and comprehensive performance modeling under extreme temperatures and pressures. In this paper (Part I), new Colburn and friction factor correlations are developed to quantify shell-side heat transfer and friction characteristics of flow within heat exchangers in the shell-and-tube configuration. Using experimental and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data sets from existing literature, multivariate regression analysis is conducted to achieve correlations that capture the effect of multiple critical geometric parameters. These correlations offer superior accuracy and versatility as compared to previous studies and predict the thermohydraulic performance of about 90% of the existing experimental and CFD data within ±15%. Supplementary thermohydraulic performance data are acquired from CFD simulations with supercritical CO2 as working fluid to validate the developed correlations and demonstrate its capability to be applied to supercrtical CO2 heat exchangers.

Engineering↗

Finding Liebig’s law of the minimum

Abstract Liebig’s law of the minimum (LLM) is often used to interpret empirical biological growth data and model multiple substrates co‐limited growth. However, its mechanistic foundation is rarely discussed, even though its validity has been questioned since its introduction in the 1820s. Here we first show that LLM is a crude approximation of the law of mass action, the state of art theory of biochemical reactions, and the LLM model is less accurate than two other approximations of the law of mass action: the synthesizing unit model and the additive model. We corroborate this conclusion using empirical data sets of algae and plants grown under two co‐limiting substrates. Based on our analysis, we show that when growth is modeled directly as a function of substrate uptake, the LLM model improperly restricts the organism to be of fixed elemental stoichiometry, making it incapable of consistently resolving biological adaptation, ecological evolution, and community assembly. When growth is modeled as a function of the cellular nutrient quota, the LLM model may obtain good results at the risk of incorrect model parameters as compared to those inferred from the more accurate synthesizing unit model. However, biogeochemical models that implement these three formulations are needed to evaluate which formulation is acceptably accurate and their impacts on predicted long‐term ecosystem dynamics. In particular, studies are needed that explore the extent to which parameter calibration can rescue model performance when the mechanistic representation of a biogeochemical process is known to be deficient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On-orbit structural dynamic performance of a 15-meter microwave radiometer antenna

The on-orbit structural dynamic performance of a microwave radiometer antenna for Earth science applications is addressed. The radiometer is one of the Earth-observing instruments aboard a proposed geostationary platform as part of the Mission to the Planet Earth. A sequential approach is presented for assessing the ability of an antenna structure to retain its geometric shape subject to a representative onboard disturbance. This approach includes establishing the structural requirements of the antenna, developing the structural and disturbance models, performing modal and forced response analyses, and evaluating the resulting distortions in terms of the antenna's ability to meet stringent structural performance requirements. Two antenna configurations are discussed: free-flying and platform-mounted. These configurations are analyzed for a representative disturbance function which simulates rotation of the subreflector in order to perform a raster-type scan of the Earth disk. Results show that the scanning maneuver modeled would not induce antenna structural errors outside the specified limits.

Wahls, Deborah M.↗

Development and Evaluation of a General Drag Model for Gas-Solid Flows via Deep Learning

This project presents the development and evaluation of a general drag model for gas–solid multiphase flows using deep learning techniques. A comprehensive database of more than 4,000 experimental and numerical data points for spherical and non spherical particles was compiled, incorporating geometric features such as sphericity, aspect ratio, and orientation. Several predictive approaches—including traditional em pirical correlations, machine learning, and deep neural networks—were benchmarked, with the proposed Drag Coefficient Correlation-aided Deep Neural Network (DCC DNN) demonstrating superior accuracy. To account for particle–particle interactions, additional drag data were generated using CFD-based simulations of packed and flu idized beds, leading to the development of a retrained model capable of incorporat ing volume fraction effects. Integration of the trained model with the MFiX CFD solver was achieved using FTorch, enabling drag predictions during discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Validation against experimental data for single particles and fluidized beds confirmed the model’s improved predictive ability, particularly for non-spherical geometries. While the model performed strongly under fluidized con ditions, limitations remained in unfluidized regimes, suggesting a need for expanded datasets. Overall, this study demonstrates the feasibility of combining deep learning with physics-informed CFD to improve drag modeling for gas–solid flows, with promis ing implications for scaling multiphase simulations in industrial applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Precise orbit determination for NASA's Earth Observing System using GPS

A precision orbit determination technique for NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is discussed. The technique exploits the redundant geometric information from GPS carrier phase and P-code pseudorange measurements and minimizes the requirements for precision dynamical modeling. Performance estimates for the application of the technique to the orbit geometry planned for the EOS platforms show that decimeter accuracies of orbit position may be obtained. The sensitivity of the predicted orbit uncertainties to model errors for station locations, nongravitational platform accelerations, and earth gravity are presented.

Williams, Bobby G.↗

Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the more important features to monitor in terms of heat, mass, and momentum transfer between the air and sea and furthermore, the impact of such responses to global climate.

Geiger, Cathleen A.↗

Evaluation of a Multi-Axial, Temperature, and Time Dependent (MATT) Failure Model

To obtain a better understanding the response of the structural adhesives used in the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle, an extensive effort has been conducted to characterize in detail the failure properties of these adhesives. This effort involved the development of a failure model that includes the effects of multi-axial loading, temperature, and time. An understanding of the effects of these parameters on the failure of the adhesive is crucial to the understanding and prediction of the safety of the RSRM nozzle. This paper documents the use of this newly developed multi-axial, temperature, and time (MATT) dependent failure model for modeling failure for the adhesives TIGA 321, EA913NA, and EA946. The development of the mathematical failure model using constant load rate normal and shear test data is presented. Verification of the accuracy of the failure model is shown through comparisons between predictions and measured creep and multi-axial failure data. The verification indicates that the failure model performs well for a wide range of conditions (loading, temperature, and time) for the three adhesives. The failure criterion is shown to be accurate through the glass transition for the adhesive EA946. Though this failure model has been developed and evaluated with adhesives, the concepts are applicable for other isotropic materials.

Richardson, D. E.↗

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗