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NASA NTRS2006

Profiler Support for Operations at Space Launch Ranges

Accurate vertical wind profiles are essential to successful launch or landing. Wind changes can make it impossible to fly a desired trajectory or avoid dangerous vehicle loads, possibly resulting in loss of mission. Balloons take an hour to generate a profile up to 20 km, but major wind changes can occur in 20 minutes. Wind profilers have the temporal response to detect such last minute hazards. They also measure the winds directly overhead while balloons blow downwind. At the Eastern Range (ER), altitudes from 2 to 20 km are sampled by a 50-MHz profiler every 4 minutes. The surface to 3 km is sampled by five 915-MHz profilers every 15 minutes. The Range Safety office assesses the risk of potential toxic chemical dispersion. They use observational data and model output to estimate the spatial extent and concentration of substances dispersed within the boundary layer. The ER uses 915-MHz profilers as both a real time observation system and as input to dispersion models. The WR has similar plans. Wind profilers support engineering analyses for the Space Shuttle. The 50-IVl11z profiler was used recently to analyze changes in the low frequency wind and low vertical wavenumber content of wind profiles in the 3 to 15 km region of the atmosphere. The 915-MHz profiler network was used to study temporal wind change within the boundary layer.

Merceret, Francis↗

NASA NTRS2011

Deep Impact, Stardust-NExT and the Behavior of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 from 1997 to 2010

We present observational data for Comet 9P/Tempel 1 taken from 1997 through 2010 in an international collaboration in support of the Deep Impact and Stardust-NExT missions. The data were obtained to characterize the nucleus prior to the Deep Impact 2005 encounter, and to enable us to understand the rotation state in order to make a time of arrival adjustment in February 2010 that would allow us to image at least 25% of the nucleus seen by the Deep Impact spacecraft to better than 80 m/pixel, and to image the crater made during the encounter, if possible. In total, approx.500 whole or partial nights were allocated to this project at 14 observatories worldwide, utilizing 25 telescopes. Seventy percent of these nights yielded useful data. The data were used to determine the linear phase coefficient for the comet in the R-band to be 0.045 +/- 0.001 mag/deg from 1deg to 16deg. Cometary activity was observed to begin inbound near r approx. 4.0 AU and the activity ended near r approx. 4.6 AU as seen from the heliocentric secular light curves, water-sublimation models and from dust dynamical modeling. The light curve exhibits a significant pre- and post-perihelion brightness and activity asymmetry. There was a secular decrease in activity between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages of approx. 20%. The post-perihelion light curve cannot be easily explained by a simple decrease in solar insolation or observing geometry. CN emission was detected in the comet at 2.43 AU pre-perihelion, and by r = 2.24 AU emission from C2 and C3 were evident. In December 2004 the production rate of CN increased from 1.8 x 10(exp 23) mol/s to Q(sub CN) = 2.75 x 10(exp 23) mol/s in early January 2005 and 9.3 x 10(exp 24) mol/s on June 6, 2005 at r = 1.53 AU.

Meech, K. J.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying Transient Uncertainty in the BEAVRS Benchmark Using Time Series Analysis Methods

Advances in computation have brought about significant improvements in creating fast-running high-fidelity simulations of nuclear cores. The BEAVRS benchmark is a highly-detailed PWR specification with two cycles of measured operational data used to validate high-fidelity core analysis methods. This PWR depletion benchmark captures the fine details of the LWR fuel assemblies, burnable absorbers, in-core fission detectors, core loading and shuffling patterns. Specifically, 58 of the 193 assemblies contain in-core detectors with measurements taken over 61 axial positions every month. These detectors are U-235 fission chambers with slightly varying mass of U-235. The collected signals are normalized on a given assembly permitting full core comparisons. The fuel layout for cycle 1 and instrument tube locations for the reactor are given in figures 1 and 2 respectively. Through a series of data processing and comparisons, it was shown that axially integrated radial maps of reaction rates were in close agreement between provided detector data and calculated data. More recently, the focus of the BEAVRS project has been on quantifying uncertainty to further assess the validity of aforementioned results. A close investigation of sources of error shows that uncertainties from operational nuclear data arise primarily from data measurements and processing. While the errors in axial realignment and interpolation seem significant, these sources affect only a small subset of data points near grid spacers and do not persist throughout the entire core. Instead, measurement uncertainty from detector count rates and radial integration dominate the uncertainty in measured data are determined as the most significant sources of error. This uncertainty analysis treated each given burnup step as independent of comparable data at neighboring burnup steps. More recent work has been targeted at understanding how reaction rates vary over time, in order to determine whether calculated reaction rates follow any observable trends. This abstract hones in on transient uncertainty quantification, in order to compare observed data against models for transient behavior. The first section of the paper uses linear regression tools to fit operational data, while the latter portion of the paper explores more complex simulation tools to fit operational data. Ultimately, the BEAVRS benchmark aims to serve as a true non-proprietary international benchmark for the validation of high-fidelity tools. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Cosmology with Simulation-based inference and Optical Galaxy Cluster Abundance

We test the robustness of simulation-based inference (SBI) in the context of cosmological parameter estimation from galaxy cluster counts and masses in simulated optical datasets. We construct ``simulations'' using analytical models for the galaxy cluster halo mass function (HMF) and for the observed richness (number of observed member galaxies) to train and test the SBI method. We compare the SBI parameter posterior samples to those from an MCMC analysis that uses the same analytical models to construct predictions of the observed data vector. The two methods exhibit comparable performance, with reliable constraints derived for the primary cosmological parameters, ($\Omega_m$ and $\sigma_8$), and richness-mass relation parameters. We also perform out-of-domain tests with observables constructed from galaxy cluster-sized halos in the Quijote simulations. Again, the SBI and MCMC results have comparable posteriors, with similar uncertainties and biases. Unsurprisingly, upon evaluating the SBI method on thousands of simulated data vectors that span the parameter space, SBI exhibits worsened posterior calibration metrics in the out-of-domain application. We note that such calibration tests with MCMC is less computationally feasible and highlight the potential use of SBI to stress-test limitations of analytical models, such as in the use for constructing models for inference with MCMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Linking the spin evolution of massive black holes to galaxy kinematics

We present the results of a semianalytical model that evolves the masses and spins of massive black holes together with the properties of their host galaxies across the cosmic history. As a consistency check, our model broadly reproduces a number of observations, e.g., the cosmic star formation history; the black hole mass, luminosity, and galaxy mass functions at low redshift; the black hole-bulge mass relation; and the morphological distribution at low redshift. For the first time in a semianalytical investigation, we relax the simplifying assumptions of perfect coherency or perfect isotropy of the gas fueling the black holes. The dynamics of gas is instead linked to the morphological properties of the host galaxies, resulting in different spin distributions for black holes hosted in different galaxy types. We compare our results with the observed sample of spin measurements obtained through broad Kα iron line fitting. The observational data disfavor both accretion along a fixed direction and isotropic fueling. Conversely, when the properties of the accretion flow are anchored to the kinematics of the host galaxy, we obtain a good match between theoretical expectations and observations. A mixture of coherent accretion and phases of activity in which the gas dynamics is similar to that of the stars in bulges (i.e., with a significant velocity dispersion superimposed to a net rotation) best describes the data, adding further evidence in support of the coevolution of massive black holes and their hosts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Vertical Structure of Turbulence Kinetic Energy Near the Arctic Sea‐Ice Surface

Atmospheric turbulence over the Arctic sea-ice surface has been understudied due to the lack of observational data. In this study, we focus on the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) over sea ice and distinguish its two different vertical structures, the “Surface” type and the “Elevated” type, using observations during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition (MOSAiC). The “Surface” type has the maximum TKE near the surface (at 2 m), while the “Elevated” type has the maximum TKE at a higher level (6 m). The TKE budget analysis indicates that the “Elevated” type is caused by the increased shear production of TKE at 6 m. In addition, spectral analysis reveals that the contribution to TKE by horizontal large eddies is enhanced in the “Elevated” type. Finally, how the vertical structure of TKE affects the parameterization of turbulent momentum flux is discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Elastic depths for detecting shape anomalies in functional data

This this paper, we propose a new family of depth measures called the elastic depths that can be used to greatly improve shape anomaly detection in functional data. Shape anomalies are functions that have considerably different geometric forms or features from the rest of the data. Identifying them is generally more difficult than identifying magnitude anomalies because shape anomalies are often not distinguishable from the bulk of the data with visualization methods. The proposed elastic depths use the recently developed elastic distances to directly measure the centrality of functions in the amplitude and phase spaces. Measuring shape outlyingness in these spaces provides a rigorous quantification of shape which, in turn, gives the elastic depths a strong theoretical and practical advantage over other methods in detecting shape anomalies. A simple boxplot and thresholding method are introduced to identify shape anomalies using the elastic depths. We assess the elastic depth's detection skill on simulated shape outlier scenarios and compare them against popular shape anomaly detectors. Finally, bond yields, image outlines, and hurricane trajectories are used to demonstrate our method's applicability to functional data observed on three different manifolds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark of the Fe xvv 𝓡 ratio in photoionized plasma during eclipse of Centaurus X-3 with XRISM/Resolve

The $\mathcal {R}$ ratio is a useful diagnostic of the X-ray emitting astrophysical plasmas and is defined as the intensity ratio of the forbidden over the inter-combination lines in the K$\alpha$ line complex of He-like ions. The value is altered by excitation processes (electron impact or UV photoexcitation) from the metastable upper level of the forbidden line, thereby constraining the electron density or UV field intensity. The diagnostic has been applied mostly in electron density constraints in collisionally ionized plasmas using low-Z elements, as was originally proposed for the Sun (Gabriel & Jordan, 1969a, MNRAS, 145, 241), but it can also be used in photoionized plasmas. To make use of this diagnostic, we need to know its value in the limit of no excitation of metastables ($\mathcal {R}_{0}$), which depends on the element, how the plasmas are formed, how the lines are propagated, and the spectral resolution affecting line blending principally with satellite lines from Li-like ions. We benchmark $\mathcal {R}_0$ for photoionized plasmas by comparing calculations using radiative transfer codes and observation data taken with the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter onboard XRISM. We use the Fe xxv He$\alpha$ line complex of the photo-ionized plasma in Centaurus X-3 observed during eclipse, in which the plasma is expected to be in the limit of no metastable excitation. The measured $\mathcal {R} = 0.65 \pm 0.08$ is consistent with the value calculated using xstar for the plasma parameters derived from other line ratios of the spectrum. We conclude that the $\mathcal {R}$ ratio diagnostic can be used for high-Z elements such as Fe in photoionized plasmas, which has wide applications in plasmas around compact objects at various scales.

X-rays: binaries↗

DOE OSTI2020

Calibrating the Galactic Cepheid Period–Luminosity Relation from the Maximum-likelihood Technique

We present a realization of the maximum-likelihood technique, which is one of the latest modifications of the Baade–Becker–Wesselink method. Our approach is based on nonlinear calibrations of the effective temperature and bolometric correction, which take into account metallicity and surface gravity. It allows one to estimate the key Cepheid parameters, the distance modulus, and the interstellar reddening, combining photometric and spectroscopic data (including the effective temperature data). This method is applied to a sample of 44 Galactic Cepheids for which multiphase temperature measurements are available. The additional data correction is performed to subtract the impact of the component in binary/multiple systems. We also study the effect of shock waves, whose presence in the stellar atmosphere distorts the observational data and leads to systematic errors in the obtained parameters. We determine the optimal restriction on the input data to eliminate this effect. This restriction provides accurate period–radius and period–luminosity relations that are consistent with the results in previous studies. We found the following relations: log R = (0.68 ± 0.03) · log P + (1.14 ± 0.03), M {sub v} = − (2.67 ± 0.16) · (log P − 1) − (4.14 ± 0.05).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1978

The observational status of the Beta Cephei stars

The Beta Cephei stars are a group of variables of spectral type B, whose light and radial velocity periods lie between about three and seven hours. An up-to-date summary of the observational data for individual stars considered to be members of the Beta Cephei group is provided. The general properties of Beta Cephei stars as determined from a comparison between theory and observation are considered, taking into account location in the HR diagram and evolutionary state, physical properties, statistics and galactic distribution, and period-luminosity relation and pulsation mode. Recent trends concerning the observation of Beta Cephei stars are examined, giving attention to a search for new variables, ultraviolet observations from spacecraft, and high-resolution studies of profile variations.

Lesh, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The distribution of sodium in Io's cloud - Implications

Models for the distribution of sodium in Io's vicinity and in a disk in Io's orbital plane, compared with observational data, support the arguments that (1) Io is the source of the sodium; (2) sodium is ejected from the inside hemisphere and most of the high velocity sodium which is observed is ejected from the leading inside quadrant; (3) most of the sodium leads Io in Io's vicinity but follows Io at distances of more than Jupiter radii from Jupiter; (4) a significant fraction of the sodium flux is ejected at large angles with respect to Io's orbital plane; (5) the source velocity distribution has a pronounced high-velocity tail; and (6) impact ionization by electrons is significant at large distances from Io.

Macy, W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Outer magnetospheric fluctuations and pulsar timing noise

The Cheng, Ho, and Ruderman (1986) outer-magnetosphere gap model was used to investigate the stability of Crab-type outer magnetosphere gaps for pulsars having the parameter (Omega-square B) similar to that of the Crab pulsar. The Lamb, Pines, and Shaham (1978) fluctuating magnetosphere noise model was applied to the Crab pulsar to examine the type of the equation of state that best describes the structure of the neutron star. The noise model was also applied to other pulsars, and the theoretical results were compared with observational data. The results of the comparison are consistent with the stiff equation of state, as suggested by the vortex creep model of the neutron star interior. The timing-noise observations also contribute to the evidence for the existence of superfluid in the core of the neutron star.

Cheng, K. S.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Continuous but diverse advancement of spring-summer phenology in response to climate warming across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is more vulnerable and sensitive to climate change than many other regions worldwide because of its high altitude, permafrost geography, and harsh physical environment. As a sensitive bio-indicator of climate change, plant phenology shift in this region has been intensively studied during the recent decades, primarily based on satellite-retrieved data. However, great controversy still exists regarding the change in direction and magnitudes of spring-summer phenology. Based on a large number (11,000+ records) of long-term and continuous ground observational data for various plant species, our study intended to more comprehensively assess the changing trends of spring-summer phenology and their relationships with climatic change across the QTP. The results indicated a continuous advancement (–2.69 days decade –1 ) in spring-summer phenology from 1981 to 2011, with an even more rapid advancement during 2000–2011 (–3.13 days decade –1 ), which provided new field evidence for continuous advancement in spring-summer phenology across the QTP. However, diverse advancing rates in spring-summer phenology were observed for different vegetation types, thermal conditions, and seasons. The advancing trends matched well with the difference in sensitivity of spring-summer phenology to increasing temperature, implying that the sensitivity of phenology to temperature was one of the major factors influencing spring-summer phenology shifts. Besides, increased precipitation could advance the spring-summer phenology. As a result, the response of spring-summer phenology to temperature tended to be stronger from east to west across all species, while the response to precipitation showed no consistent spatial pattern.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Integrating Orbital Debris Measurements and Modeling - How Observations and Laboratory Data are used to Help Make Space Operations Safer

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been statistically surveying human-made resident space objects (RSOs) in geocentric orbits for several decades, using optical and infrared telescopes. The prime goal has been to understand the evolving population and characteristics of debris generated by RSOs. The debris population includes any non-functioning RSO that no longer serves a useful purpose. Any object that cannot be purposely maneuvered, including non-functioning satellites, rocket bodies, and any object generated by a collision, explosion, or fragmentation event, may pose a future collisional threat to active satellites. Key questions immediately surface from this knowledge: What can we do to protect our precious functioning satellites from collisions? How do we design our satellites to prevent them from being future sources of debris? And what can we do as a society to protect the environment surrounding Earth to preserve it for future generations? To begin to address these questions, and to better understand this population as well as break-up events contributing to it, NASA has developed a suite of models and experimental laboratory data to work in tandem with observational and laboratory measurements of RSOs. These models include the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), the Standard Satellite Break-up Model (SSBM), and an evolutionary model of the environment from LEO to GEO (LEGEND). Ground-based data have been collected from the infrared telescope UKIRT (UK Infrared Telescope) in Hawaii, as well as the 1.3m Eugene Stansbery Meter Class Autonomous Telescope, ES-MCAT, historically called MCAT, on Ascension Island. MCAT will be tasked to collect GEO (Geosynchronous) survey data, scanning orbits to search for uncatalogued objects (e.g. fragmentation/break-up events (SSBM)), and targeted observations of catalogued objects for more intensive studies, e.g. when a break-up or anomalous event occurs. Laboratory experimental data includes DebriSat, a satellite impacted at ~6.9 km/s in an impact laboratory on Earth, and optical photometry from the Optical Measurements Center at NASA JSC. An integrated view will be discussed of how our telescopic observations and lab measurements interplay with models to understand the current (ORDEM) and future (LEGEND) environment, the evolution of satellite breakups (SSBM), and how this knowledge can help to promote an environment that is safer for operations.

Lederer, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Comments on the Rotational State and Non-Gravitational Forces of Comet 46/WIRTANEN

We apply our experience of modeling the rotational state and non-gravitational forces of comet 1 P/Halley and other comets to comet 46P/Wirtanen. While the paucity of physical data on 46P/Wirtanen makes this process somewhat speculative, this comet's place as target for the important Rosetta mission gives significance to such a study. Our arguments are based on the summary of observational data provided by Jorda and Rickman (1995) and a comparative study of the behavior of other periodic comets. We find 46P/Wirtanen to have a level of surface activity relative to its mass that is dynamically more akin to that found in comet 1 P/Halley than in a typical periodic comet. We show through an illustrative numerical example that this apparent fact should likely lead to an excited spin state for this comet and that significant changes in the spin period could occur in a single pass through perihelion. We argue that the available observations are not sufficient to substantiate the claim of Jorda and Rickman (1995) that the nucleus is undergoing retrograde rotation and it is possible that the rotation is either prograde as well as retrograde. The substantial requirements that must be placed on any future observing program necessary to determine the precise rotational state are outlined. We advocate an extended (approx. two month) southern hemisphere observing campaign to determine the nuclear rotational state in 1996 if possible before activity turns on.

Samarasinha, Nalin H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Daily water stable isotopes, transpiration, and matrix potential data for an aspen and engelmann stand in the East River Watershed (version 2)

We provide daily stable isotope (2H & 18O) ratios in soil water and xylem (plant stem) water, as well as the sap flow (transpiration) and the soil's matric potential at a forested site near Gothic, Colorado, in the East River catchment. We measured the stable isotopic composition of the transpiration and the daily transpiration flux sum of three aspen and three engelmann spruce. In both forest stands, we installed a soil profile and measured the soil matric potential at 15, 30, and 60 cm depth as well as the stable isotopes of soil pore water at 5, 10, 30, 60, and 90 cm depths. All isotope measurements were done in situ via vapor probes connected to a cavity ring down spectrometer (Picarro L1240i).We further report the daily meteorological data observed at billy barr near our study site. We also provide for each tree the relative share of root water uptake derived from the isotope measurements via a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR).The daily data is provided as a time series in "Iso_MP_Sap_DataDaily_ESSDiveUpload.csv" and the units are provided in "dd.csv"; the location of the instrumented trees and soil profiles are given as latitude and longitude coordinates saved as CSV and KMZ files; and a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata.The data was gathered to investigate the short-term changes of the water sources (i.e., variation of root water uptake from different soil depths) of the studied subalpine trees.Update 07/16/2025: The relative and absolute plant water uptake depths were grouped to ensure that the MixSIAR model was applied with endmembers that differed in their d2H value by at least 3 permill and at least 1 permill for d18O. Whenever the difference between observed d2H values for two or more probes at neighboring depths was less than 3 permill, we used the average value for the source water endmember. For days at which probes that were not next to each other measurements did not differ at least 3 permill, the average of all probes between these two depths was used as the water source endmember representing the depth range between these two probes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Search for heavy neutrinos and third-generation leptoquarks in hadronic states of two τ leptons and two jets in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV

A search for new particles has been conducted using events with two high transverse momentum $\tau$ leptons that decay hadronically and at least two energetic jets. The analysis is performed using data from proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=$ 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$. The observed data are consistent with standard model expectations. The results are interpreted in the context of two physics models. The first model involves right-handed charged bosons, W$_\mathrm{R}$, that decay to heavy right-handed Majorana neutrinos, N$_\ell$ $(\ell= $e, $\mu,\tau)$, arising in a left-right symmetric extension of the standard model. The model considers that N$_\mathrm{e}$ and N$_\mu$ are too heavy to be detected at the LHC. Assuming that the N$_\tau$ mass is half of the W$_\mathrm{R}$ mass, masses of the W$_\mathrm{R}$ boson below 3.50 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level. Exclusion limits are also presented considering different scenarios for the mass ratio between N$_\tau$ and W$_\mathrm{R}$, as a function of W$_\mathrm{R}$ mass. In the second model, pair production of third-generation scalar leptoquarks that decay into $\tau\tau$bb is considered, resulting in an observed exclusion region with leptoquark masses below 1.02 TeV, assuming a 100% branching fraction for the leptoquark decay to a $\tau$ lepton and a bottom quark. These results represent the most stringent limits to date on these models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗