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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Database of theoretical thermosphere/ionosphere predictions

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model has performed a series of self-consistent calculations of the thermosphere/ionosphere structure for a variety of geophysical conditions. The model simulates March, June, and December periods for solar cycle minimum and maximum for three levels of geomagnetic activity representing quiet, moderate, and disturbed conditions. The calculations include predictions of N2, O2, O, N(sup 4)S, N(sup 2)D, NO, N2(+), O2(+), O(+), NO(+), and N(+), along with the ion, electron, and neutral temperatures and three components of the neutral winds. The model simulations are available from the authors or through the Coupling, Energetic, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions database at NCAR.

Fesen, C. G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

On the Importance of High Frequency Gravity Waves for Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Recent investigations of the influence of atmospheric waves on ice nucleation in cirrus have identified a number of key processes and sensitivities: (1) ice concentrations produced by homogeneous freezing are strongly dependent on cooling rates, with gravity waves dominating upper tropospheric cooling rates; (2) rapid cooling driven by high-frequency waves are likely responsible for the rare occurrences of very high ice concentrations in cirrus; (3) sedimentation and entrainment tend to decrease ice concentrations as cirrus age; and (4) in some situations, changes in temperature tendency driven by high-frequency waves can quench ice nucleation events and limit ice concentrations. Here we use parcel-model simulations of ice nucleation driven by long-duration, constant-pressure balloon temperature time series, along with an extensive dataset of cold cirrus microphysical properties from the recent ATTREX high-altitude aircraft campaign, to statistically examine the importance of high-frequency waves as well as the consistency between our theoretical understanding of ice nucleation and observed ice concentrations. The parcel-model simulations indicate common occurrence of peak ice concentrations exceeding several hundred per liter. Sedimentation and entrainment would reduce ice concentrations as clouds age, but 1-D simulations using a wave parameterization (which underestimates rapid cooling events) still produce ice concentrations higher than indicated by observations. We find that quenching of nucleation events by high-frequency waves occurs infrequently and does not prevent occurrences of large ice concentrations in parcel simulations of homogeneous freezing. In fact, the high-frequency variability in the balloon temperature data is entirely responsible for production of these high ice concentrations in the simulations.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Computational Aerothermal Modeling and Simulation of Hypersonic, Low-density Flows for the ADEPT Drag Modulated Aerocapture Mission

NASA Ames Entry Systems and Technology Division has been leading development and testing of the Adaptable, Deployable, Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT). A teaming partnership with JPL has been established to study and develop a compelling application of the ADEPT mechanically deployable hypersonic decelerator as part of the Venus Drag Modulated Aerocapture (VDMA) JPL R&TD effort. The primary work of this activity is to develop a design tool for the ADEPT drag skirt (e.g. a CFD-anchored CBAERO model) that enables rapid estimation of aerothermal environments for a range of candidate trajectories. This capability will enable rapid feasibility trades and design assessments for early stage mission concept evaluation for ADEPT Drag Modulated Aerocapture applications. Results of using TPSizer provided an ADEPT carbon fabric design thickness of the required number of fabric layers needed for predicted aerothermal environments and still have sufficient fabric remaining for overall vehicle integrity. This resulted in aerothermal design closure of the ADEPT drag skirt. In addition, the similar methodology for Venus DMA was used to assess a similar DMA operation at Earth as part of a possible Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) for ADEPT DMA. This analysis showed that there is a close similarity of design approaches for an Earth DMA TDM that would be applicable to Venus DMA mission designs.

Drag Modulated Aerocapture↗
DOE OSTI2026

A kinetic model for simulating non-equilibrium mass transport in oxides applied to hematite growth under irradiation

We propose an approach to simulating the dynamic evolution and transport of charged point defects within and through the oxide scales that form during corrosion. The method follows the cluster dynamics formalism widely adopted for radiation damage in solids, which can apply in both quasi-static and far from equilibrium conditions, such as in radiation environments. By treating each charged defect as a cluster of an atomic defect and associated unit charges, the proposed model flexibly allows charge state transitions and shifts in the Fermi level by absorption and emission of charge carriers from point defects in a reaction network with rates constrained by local equilibrium. Applying this model to hematite predicts changes in self-diffusion and oxidation kinetics in irradiation environments, surprisingly showing reduced oxidation rates in many conditions, despite enhanced self-diffusion. In conclusion, the origin of this effect lies in a change in Fermi level induced by excess vacancies formed under irradiation, which in turn suppresses the transport of cation interstitials which facilitate hematite growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating pulse-shaping capabilities of next-generation pulsed power architectures

This project evaluated the pulse shaping capabilities of next-generation pulsed power (NGPP) architectures. NGPP architectures share several common attributes including multiple independent pulse-generation lines, a radial water-insulated impedance transformer, and a central vacuum insulated load region. A multi-module circuit model was developed, incorporating independent pulse-generation lines and a 2-D transmission line mesh of the radial impedance transformer to assess the effects of azimuthal asymmetry in pulse-shaped experiments. Circuit model simulations demonstrated that NGPP architectures are able to produce the the desired current pulse shapes for exemplar NGPP experiments. Additionally, the project explored automated methods for experiment design, including derivative -ree optimization and machine learning. Pulse-shaped experiments require designers to determine machine parameters that reliably produce the desired current pulse at the load, a process that typically relies on expert knowledge and iterative adjustments using the Z circuit model. Given the increased complexity of NGPP systems, this manual approach may be impractical. While the evaluated methods do not eliminate the need for manual iteration, they can reduce the time required for experiment design. Derivative-free optimization automates much of the trial-and-error process, providing a close starting point for manual adjustments or making small modifications to near-final designs. Meanwhile, deep neural network methods can generate a good qualitative match to the desired current pulse in under one second without requiring circuit model simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Low-Frequency Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic is examined from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) as well as from an ocean model simulation forced by COADS anomalies appended to a monthly climatology. Our findings are as follows: Only the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern tropics are driven by heat fluxes, while the southern tropical variability arises from wind driven ocean circulation changes. The subsurface temperatures in the northern and southern tropics are found to have a strong linkage to buoyancy forcing changes in the northern North Atlantic. Evidence for Kelvin-like boundary wave propagation from the high latitudes is presented from the model simulation. This extratropical influence is associated with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing and manifests itself in the northern and southern tropical temperature anomalies of the same sign at depth of 100-200 meters as result of a Rossby wave propagation away from the eastern boundary in the wake of the boundary wave passage. The most apparent association of the southern tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (STA) arises with the anomalous cross-equatorial winds which can be related to both NAO and the remote influence from the Pacific equatorial region. These teleconnections are seasonal so that the NAO impact on the tropical SST is the largest it mid-winter but in spring and early summer the Pacific remote influence competes with NAO. However, NAO appears to have a more substantial role than the Pacific influence at low frequencies during the last 50 years. The dynamic origin of STA is indirectly confirmed from the SST-heat flux relationship using ocean model experiments which remove either anomalous wind stress forcing or atmospheric forcing anomalies contributing to heat exchange.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2015

Role of Longwave Cloud-Radiation Feedback in the Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

The role of the cloud-radiation interaction in the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is investigated. A special focus is on the enhancement of column-integrated diabatic heating due to the greenhouse effects of clouds and moisture in the region of anomalous convection. The degree of this enhancement, the greenhouse enhancement factor (GEF), is measured at different precipitation anomaly regimes as the negative ratio of anomalous outgoing longwave radiation to anomalous precipitation. Observations show that the GEF varies significantly with precipitation anomaly and with the MJO cycle. The greenhouse enhancement is greater in weak precipitation anomaly regimes and its effectiveness decreases monotonically with increasing precipitation anomaly. The GEF also amplifies locally when convection is strengthened in association with the MJO, especially in the weak precipitation anomaly regime (less than 5 mm day(exp -1)). A robust statistical relationship is found among CMIP5 climate model simulations between the GEF and the MJO simulation fidelity. Models that simulate a stronger MJO also simulate a greater GEF, especially in the weak precipitation anomaly regime (less than 5 mm day(exp -1)). Models with a greater GEF in the strong precipitation anomaly regime (greater than 30 mm day(-1)) represent a slightly slower MJO propagation speed. Many models that lack the MJO underestimate the GEF in general and in particular in the weak precipitation anomaly regime. The results herein highlight that the cloud-radiation interaction is a crucial process for climate models to correctly represent the MJO.

Clouds↗
NASA NTRS2004

Estimation of Soil Moisture with L-band Multi-polarization Radar

Through analyses of the model simulated data-base, we developed a technique to estimate surface soil moisture under HYDROS radar sensor (L-band multi-polarizations and 40deg incidence) configuration. This technique includes two steps. First, it decomposes the total backscattering signals into two components - the surface scattering components (the bare surface backscattering signals attenuated by the overlaying vegetation layer) and the sum of the direct volume scattering components and surface-volume interaction components at different polarizations. From the model simulated data-base, our decomposition technique works quit well in estimation of the surface scattering components with RMSEs of 0.12,0.25, and 0.55 dB for VV, HH, and VH polarizations, respectively. Then, we use the decomposed surface backscattering signals to estimate the soil moisture and the combined surface roughness and vegetation attenuation correction factors with all three polarizations.

Shi, J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2009

opics covered include: Filtering Water by Use of Ultrasonically Vibrated Nanotubes; Computer Code for Nanostructure Simulation; Functionalizing CNTs for Making Epoxy/CNT Composites; Improvements in Production of Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes; Progress Toward Sequestering Carbon Nanotubes in PmPV; Two-Stage Variable Sample-Rate Conversion System; Estimating Transmitted-Signal Phase Variations for Uplink Array Antennas; Board Saver for Use with Developmental FPGAs; Circuit for Driving Piezoelectric Transducers; Digital Synchronizer without Metastability; Compact, Low-Overhead, MIL-STD-1553B Controller; Parallel-Processing CMOS Circuitry for M-QAM and 8PSK TCM; Differential InP HEMT MMIC Amplifiers Embedded in Waveguides; Improved Aerogel Vacuum Thermal Insulation; Fluoroester Co-Solvents for Low-Temperature Li+ Cells; Using Volcanic Ash to Remove Dissolved Uranium and Lead; High-Efficiency Artificial Photosynthesis Using a Novel Alkaline Membrane Cell; Silicon Wafer-Scale Substrate for Microshutters and Detector Arrays; Micro-Horn Arrays for Ultrasonic Impedance Matching; Improved Controller for a Three-Axis Piezoelectric Stage; Nano-Pervaporation Membrane with Heat Exchanger Generates Medical-Grade Water; Micro-Organ Devices; Nonlinear Thermal Compensators for WGM Resonators; Dynamic Self-Locking of an OEO Containing a VCSEL; Internal Water Vapor Photoacoustic Calibration; Mid-Infrared Reflectance Imaging of Thermal-Barrier Coatings; Improving the Visible and Infrared Contrast Ratio of Microshutter Arrays; Improved Scanners for Microscopic Hyperspectral Imaging; Rate-Compatible LDPC Codes with Linear Minimum Distance; PrimeSupplier Cross-Program Impact Analysis and Supplier Stability Indicator Simulation Model; Integrated Planning for Telepresence With Time Delays; Minimizing Input-to-Output Latency in Virtual Environment; Battery Cell Voltage Sensing and Balancing Using Addressable Transformers; Gaussian and Lognormal Models of Hurricane Gust Factors; Simulation of Attitude and Trajectory Dynamics and Control of Multiple Spacecraft; Integrated Modeling of Spacecraft Touch-and-Go Sampling; Spacecraft Station-Keeping Trajectory and Mission Design Tools; Efficient Model-Based Diagnosis Engine; and DSN Simulator.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term Ozone Variability and Trends from Reanalyses: Can It Be Done?

Stratospheric ozone concentrations have begun to show early signs of recovery following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments as well as in response to decreasing upper-stratospheric temperatures. Secular trends in stratospheric ozone are modulated by considerable interannual variability and systematic changes in transport patterns that are expected under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially in the lower stratosphere. These factors necessitate the continued close monitoring of stratospheric ozone in upcoming decades, with a special focus on the lower stratosphere.As highly resolved data sets combining a plethora of observations with model simulations atmospheric reanalyses are, in principle, well suited for the task. All major reanalyses generate ozone output. However, significant spurious discontinuities that arise from step changes in the observing systems prevent a straightforward analysis of ozone trends and long-term variability. Building on our recent work, in this presentation we will demonstrate that trend detection is nonetheless possible using the ozone record from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis bias-corrected using a chemistry model simulation as a transfer function. Next, we will outline several strategies to reduce artificial discontinuities in the ozone record in future NASA reanalyses. This discussion will be illustrated by an example of joint assimilation of bias-corrected ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite (2004 to present) and the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) sensors that are expected to operate on future NOAA platforms.

Wargan, Krzysztof↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Probabilistic Model for Simulating Magnetoacoustic Emission Responses in Ferromagnets

Magnetoacoustic emission (MAE) is a phenomenon where acoustic noise is generated due to the motion of non-180 magnetic domain walls in a ferromagnet with non-zero magnetostrictive constants. MAE has been studied extensively for many years and has even been applied as an NDE tool for characterizing the heat treatment of high-yield low carbon steels. A complete theory which fully accounts for the magnetoacoustic response, however, has not yet emerged. The motion of the domain walls appears to be a totally random process, however, it does exhibit features of regularity which have been identified by studying phenomena such as 1/f flicker noise and self-organized criticality (SOC). In this paper, a probabilistic model incorporating the effects of SOC has been developed to help explain the MAE response. The model uses many simplifying assumptions yet yields good qualitative agreement with observed experimental results and also provides some insight into the possible underlying mechanisms responsible for MAE. We begin by providing a brief overview of magnetoacoustic emission and the experimental set-up used to obtain the MAE signal. We then describe a pseudo-probabilistic model used to predict the MAE response and give an example of the predicted result. Finally, the model is modified to account for SOC and the new predictions are shown and compared with experiment.

Namkung, M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Use the High-Resolution Numerical Model to Simulate Typhoon Morakot 2009

Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan on the night of Friday August 7th, 2009 as a category 2 storm with sustained winds of 85 knots (92 mph). Although the center made landfall in Hualien county along the central cast coast of Taiwan and passed over the central northern part of the island, it was southern Taiwan that received the worst effects of the storm where locally as Much as 2200 mm (2.2 m) of rain were reported, resulting in the worst flooding there in 50 years. The result of the enormous amount of rain has been massive flooding and devastating mudslides. More than 600 people are confirmed dead. In this paper, we will present the results from high-resolution (2-km) WRF for this typhoon case. The results showed that the model captured both in terms of maximum rainfall area and intensity. The model results also showed that the heavy amounts of rain over the southern portion of the island is due to persistent southwesterly flow associated with Morakot and it's circulation was able to draw up copious amounts of moisture from the South China Sea into southern Taiwan where it was able to interact with the steep topography. In the paper, we will also present results from sensitivity test of terrain heights and SST on the precipitation processes (rainfall) associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009), In addition, we will present high-resolution visualization (36 second and 2-km) to show the evolution of Typhoon Morakot.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme Using TRMM Satellite Observations

Comparisons between cloud model simulations and observations are crucial in validating model performance and improving physical processes represented in the mod Tel.hese modeled physical processes are idealized representations and almost always have large rooms for improvements. In this study, we use data from two different sensors onboard TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) satellite to improve the microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. TRMM observed mature-stage squall lines during late spring, early summer in central US over a 9-year period are compiled and compared with a case simulation by GCE model. A unique aspect of the GCE model is that it has a state-of-the-art spectral bin microphysical scheme, which uses 33 different bins to represent particle size distribution of each of the seven hydrometeor species. A forward radiative transfer model calculates TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) 85 GHz brightness temperatures from simulated particle size distributions. Comparisons between model outputs and observations reveal that the model overestimates sizes of snow/aggregates in the stratiform region of the squall line. After adjusting temperature-dependent collection coefficients among ice-phase particles, PR comparisons become good while TMI comparisons worsen. Further investigations show that the partitioning between graupel (a high-density form of aggregate), and snow (a low-density form of aggregate) needs to be adjusted in order to have good comparisons in both PR reflectivity and TMI brightness temperature. This study shows that long-term satellite observations, especially those with multiple sensors, can be very useful in constraining model microphysics. It is also the first study in validating and improving a sophisticated spectral bin microphysical scheme according to long-term satellite observations.

Li, Xiaowen↗
DOE OSTI2025

CFD modeling and simulation for corrosive wear of refractory in molten slag

The development of high-wear resistant refractories having minimal production costs is facilitated by characterizing the wear mechanisms associated with their corrosive wear. Static cup testing is a commonly used method for comparing the corrosion resistance performance of two or more refractory materials. Although the static cup test conditions are not as severe as dynamic tests, this study shows that the thermal gradient present within the system during heating and cooling stages serves to generate movement of the slag leading to mechanical wear. The thermal gradient within the refractory, and between the slag and the refractory, occurs during the ramp stage of the test and lasts until the soaking stage is reached bringing the system to a thermal equilibrium. Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) capabilities embedded within ANSYS software, this study modelled and quantified the convection currents within the slag and associated shear stresses generated on the refractory walls due to the thermal gradient. A traditional ladle furnace was employed as a case study to verify the results of the studied CFD model. The corrosion rate of the refractory lining was found to depend on the mass transfer coefficient of the refractory dissolution into the slag, and a velocity term which governs the extent of corrosion at any given location. This velocity term is a function of slag viscosity, as well as the concentration gradient and/or temperature gradient at the triple points. In this study, wall shear stress was used as a reliable proxy for identifying high-velocity regions prone to excessive corrosive wear. Elevated wall shear stress near the slag/air and slag/molten steel interfaces align with observed corrosion grooves, which reflects the intensified corrosive wear at these locations.

Ramteke, Rajat Rajat Durgesh Ramteke [University o↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reviews and syntheses: Opportunities for robust use of peak intensities from high-resolution mass spectrometry in organic matter studies

Abstract. Earth's biogeochemical cycles are intimately tied to the biotic and abiotic processing of organic matter (OM). Spatial and temporal variations in OM chemistry are often studied using direct infusion, high-resolution Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS). An increasingly common approach is to use ecological metrics (e.g., within-sample diversity) to summarize high-dimensional FTMS data, notably Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). However, problems can arise when FTMS peak-intensity data are used in a way that is analogous to abundances in ecological analyses (e.g., species abundance distributions). Using peak-intensity data in this way requires the assumption that intensities act as direct proxies for concentrations. Here, we show that comparisons of the same peak across samples (within-peak) may carry information regarding variations in relative concentration, but comparing different peaks (between-peak) within or between samples does not. We further developed a simulation model to study the quantitative implications of using peak intensities to compute ecological metrics (e.g., intensity-weighted mean properties and diversity) that rely on information about both within-peak and between-peak shifts in relative abundance. We found that, despite analytical limitations in linking concentration to intensity, ecological metrics often perform well in terms of providing robust qualitative inferences and sometimes quantitatively accurate estimates of diversity and mean molecular characteristics. We conclude with recommendations for the robust use of peak intensities for natural organic matter studies. A primary recommendation is the use and extension of the simulation model to provide objective guidance on the degree to which conceptual and quantitative inferences can be made for a given analysis of a given dataset. Broad use of this approach can help ensure rigorous scientific outcomes from the use of FTMS peak intensities in environmental applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dependence of Convective Cloud Microphysical Properties on Environmental Conditions during the TRACER and ESCAPE Field Campaigns: A Synergistic Approach of Observations, Machine Learning and Parcel Models

The sensitivity of convective clouds to aerosols and their interactions with environment, combined with limited observational constraints in parameterizations, introduces significant uncertainties in atmospheric models. Here, this study investigates the dependence of convective cloud microphysical properties on environmental conditions using a synergistic approach that combines unique observations from the TRACER and ESCAPE field campaigns, machine learning techniques, and parcel model simulations with a super-droplet microphysics scheme. A random forest algorithm identifies in-situ vertical velocity (w), temperature (T), and surface fine-mode aerosol mass concentration as the three most important environmental conditions influencing cloud properties including liquid water content (LWC), number concentration for particles with D max < 50 μm (N c ,<50), 50 μm ≤ D max ≤ 3000 μm (N c,50–3000 ), and droplet effective diameter (D e ). Results show that LWC, N c,<50 , and N c,50–3000 significantly increase with w in updrafts. Across w bins, as T decreases, LWC, D e , and N c,50–3000 increase, while N c,<50 decreases, which are closely linked to the distance above cloud bases. Warmer cloud bases yield higher LWC, greater N c,50–3000 , and smaller N c,<50 , while polluted environments produce greater N c,<50 . Parcel model simulations successfully replicate these observed dependencies. The simulation results indicate that warmer cloud bases enhance condensation generating larger droplets, and differences in droplet sizes are then amplified through collision-coalescence, resulting in a greater N c,50–3000 . Polluted conditions result in a greater N c,<50 primarily due to enhanced cloud condensation nuclei activation despite increased collision-coalescence rates compared to pristine conditions. This study provides observed quantitative patterns characterizing cloud microphysical properties as a function of key environmental parameters, offering valuable constraints for improving physics parameterizations and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging generative artificial intelligence to bridge domain gaps in wind turbine research

A central challenge in wind turbine health monitoring is the scarcity of real-world data due to limited instrumentation, leading researchers to rely on simulation models that often suffer from reduced fidelity. However, even within simulation environments, discrepancies arise because of modeling assumptions, and configuration fidelities, creating domain gaps that limit the transferability of learned representations. Here, to investigate domain translation under controlled conditions, this project explores the use of generative artificial intelligence, specifically cycle-consistent generative adversarial networks (CGANs), to bridge the gap between OpenFAST simulation models representing 1.5 MW and 5 MW wind turbines. A physics-informed CGAN architecture is introduced, where a simplified turbine tower dynamics model is incorporated into the training loss to ensure physically consistent outputs. Quantitative results showed moderate to high agreement in frequency-domain features. Incorporating the physics-informed loss function improved the R 2 values by 30%, reduced the RMSE from 1.39 to 1.1 m/s 2 , and reduced training time by 82%. Furthermore, under increased turbulence intensity (IEC Category A), the RMSE remained stable at approximately 1.1 m/s 2 . While the present study is entirely simulation-based, it establishes a pipeline for evaluating physics-informed generative domain translation, which may serve as a foundation for future simulation-to-reality validation studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.

Tucker, Compton J.↗