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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Component Modeling, Co-Optimization, and Trade-Space Evaluation (FY2021 Annual Progress Report)

This project is intended to support the development of new traction drive systems that meet the targets of 100 kW/L for power electronics and 50 kW/L for electric machines with reliable operation to 300,000 miles. To meet these goals, new designs must be identified that make use of state-of-the-art and next-generation electronic materials and design methods. Designs must exploit synergies between components, for example converters designed for high-frequency switching using wide band gap devices and ceramic capacitors. This project includes: (1) a survey of available technologies; (2) the development of design tools that consider the converter volume and performance; (3) exercising the design software to evaluate performance gaps and predict the impact of certain technologies and design approaches, i.e. GaN semiconductors, ceramic capacitors, and select topologies; and (4) building and testing hardware prototypes to validate models and concepts. Early instantiations of the design tools enable co-optimization of the power module and passive elements and provide some design guidance; later instantiations will enable the co-optimization of inverter and machine. Prototype testing begins with evaluation of simpler conversion topologies (i.e. the half-bridge boost converter) and progresses with fabrication of prototype inverter drives.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Validation of Numerical Models of the Offshore Wind Turbine from the Alpha Ventus Wind Farm Against Full-Scale Measurements Within OC5 Phase III: Preprint

The main objective of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation, with Correlation (OC5) project, is validation of aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulation tools for offshore wind turbines (OWTs) through comparison of simulated results to the response data of physical systems. Phase III of the OC5 project validates OWT models against the measurements recorded on Senvion 5M wind turbine supported by the OWEC Quattropod from the alpha ventus offshore wind farm. The following operating conditions of the wind turbine were chosen for the validation: (1) Idling below the cut-in wind speed; (2) Rotornacelle assembly (RNA) rotation maneuver below the cut-in wind speed; (3) Power production below and above the rated wind speed; and (4) Shut-down. A number of validation load cases were defined based on these operating conditions. The following measurements were used for validation: (1) Strains and accelerations recorded on the support structure; (2) Pitch, yaw, and azimuth angles, generator speed, and electrical power recorded from the RNA. Strains were not directly available from the majority of the OWT simulation tools. Therefore, strains were calculated based on out-of-plane bending moments, axial forces, and geometrical properties of the structural members. Also, a number of issues arose during the validation: (1) The need for a thorough quality check of sensor measurements; (2) The sensitivity of the turbine loads to the controller and airfoil properties, which were only approximated in the modeling approach; (3) The importance of estimating and applying an appropriate damping value for the structure; and (4) The importance of wind characteristics beyond turbulence on the loads. The simulation results and measurements were compared in terms of time series, discrete Fourier transforms (DFTs), power spectral densities (PSDs), probability density functions (PDFs) of strains and accelerometers. A good match was achieved between the measurements and models set up by OC5 Phase III participants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Same-sided successive-shock HED instability experiments

Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy density (HED) physics experiments experience complicated forcing for instability growth and mix due to the ubiquitous presence of multiple shocks interacting with perturbations on multiple material interfaces. One common driver of instability growth is successive shocks from the same direction. However, there is a severe lack of analytic work and modeling validation for same-sided successive shocks since they are extremely difficult to achieve with conventional (non-HED) drivers. Successive shocks access a large instability parameter space; idealized fluid theory [K. O. Mikaelian, Phys. Rev. A 31, 410 (1985)] predicts 15 different interface evolution scenarios for a sinusoidal perturbation. Growth becomes more complex for multi-mode, compressible HED systems. The Mshock campaign is the first experiment in any fluid regime to probe a wide portion of successive shock parameter space. This is enabled by our development of a hybrid direct/indirect drive platform capable of creating independently controllable successive shocks on the National Ignition Facility. These experiments have delivered the first data capable of rigorously challenging our models and their ability to accurately capture Richtmyer–Meshkov growth under successive shocks. Single-mode and two-mode experiments have successfully demonstrated the ability to access and control the various growth scenarios of the shocked interface, including re-inversion, freeze out, and continued growth. Simulations and theoretical modeling are shown to accurately capture the experimental observations in the linear growth phase, giving us confidence in our ICF/HED design codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Consideration of the Aluminum Distribution in Zeolites in Theoretical and Experimental Catalysis Research

Research efforts in zeolite catalysis have become increasingly cognizant of the diversity in structure and function resulting from the distribution of framework aluminum atoms, through emerging reports of catalytic phenomena that fall outside those recognizable as the shape-selective ones emblematic of its earlier history. Molecular-level descriptions of how active-site distributions affect catalysis are an aspirational goal articulated frequently in experimental and theoretical research, yet they are limited by imprecise knowledge of the structure and behavior of the zeolite materials under interrogation. In experimental research, higher precision can result from more reliable control of structure during synthesis and from more robust and quantitative structural and kinetic characterization probes. In theoretical research, construction of models with specific aluminum locations and distributions seldom capture the heterogeneity inherent to the materials studied by experiment. In this Perspective, we discuss research findings that appropriately frame the challenges in developing more predictive synthesis-structure-function relations for zeolites, highlighting studies on ZSM-5 zeolites that are among the most structurally complex molecular sieve frameworks and the most widely studied because of their versatility in commercial applications. We discuss research directions to address these challenges and forge stronger connections between zeolite structure, composition, and active sites to catalytic function. Such connections promise to aid in bridging the findings of theoretical and experimental catalysis research, and transforming zeolite active site design from an empirical endeavor into a more predictable science founded on validated models.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

AirSTAR: A UAV Platform for Flight Dynamics and Control System Testing

As part of the NASA Aviation Safety Program at Langley Research Center, a dynamically scaled unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and associated ground based control system are being developed to investigate dynamics modeling and control of large transport vehicles in upset conditions. The UAV is a 5.5% (seven foot wingspan), twin turbine, generic transport aircraft with a sophisticated instrumentation and telemetry package. A ground based, real-time control system is located inside an operations vehicle for the research pilot and associated support personnel. The telemetry system supports over 70 channels of data plus video for the downlink and 30 channels for the control uplink. Data rates are in excess of 200 Hz. Dynamic scaling of the UAV, which includes dimensional, weight, inertial, actuation, and control system scaling, is required so that the sub-scale vehicle will realistically simulate the flight characteristics of the full-scale aircraft. This testbed will be utilized to validate modeling methods, flight dynamics characteristics, and control system designs for large transport aircraft, with the end goal being the development of technologies to reduce the fatal accident rate due to loss-of-control.

Jordan, Thomas L.↗

Advanced Models for Nondestructive Evaluation of Aging Nuclear Power Plant Cables

Background: Nuclear power plant (NPP) cables must function correctly for proper power supply and control of the nuclear reactor. This is especially important for public and environmental safety at critical times such as during reactor shut-down following loss of coolant. Over extended periods of service, the cable insulation and jacket polymer materials suffer from degradation due to exposure to environmental stressors such as heat and ionizing radiation. The focus of this project has been the development of detailed descriptions of the way in which insulation polymers degrade, from a materials science perspective, and the development of new electrical techniques to monitor cable polymer condition nondestructively. Objectives: The objectives of this project have been to i) perform detailed characterization experiments upon cable insulation polymers that have experienced thermal and radiation exposure mimicking that received during NPP operation, including the exploration of novel cable nondestructive evaluation methods; capacitive, THz and infrared methods; ii) identify the most sensitive indicators of aging in these materials, and iii) develop advanced, validated models describing microstructural and chemical changes that are observed in cable insulation polymers due to thermal and radiation exposure. Methods: Accelerated aging was performed on the two most common United States NPP cable insulation polymers (cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) and ethylene propylene rubber (EPR)) under various conditions of elevated temperature and gamma radiation dose. Aging mechanisms were elucidated through extensive thermal, mechanical and microscopic characterization of the aged samples, and materials modeling. Dielectric and IR spectra were measured on pristine and aged samples. Data was analyzed statistically, via multiple linear regression, partial least squares and probabilistic neural network approaches. Impact: Extant cable monitoring techniques do not deal successfully with all polymer types. This research has laid a foundation upon which new electrical nondestructive test methods for cable polymer condition monitoring may be developed, hence launching the development of new test methods for cable insulation monitoring based on measuring electrical rather than mechanical parameters. Collaboration: This project has benefitted from collaboration between experts in materials science and engineering, materials modeling, electrical engineering, and nondestructive evaluation. The majority of the characterization measurements were carried out at Iowa State University. Materials modeling was carried out primarily at Washington State University. Irradiation of samples took place at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where a student intern from Iowa State was hosted for one summer, setting up the aging experiments. A research student from the University of Bologna, Italy, joined the project for their thesis research at Iowa State University with samples provided by PNNL. The project benefitted from regular involvement of senior engineers in US-based industry partners. Project investigators presented findings at various national and international conferences and workshops.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Electric Drive Technologies Research: ELT223 Component Modeling, Co-Optimization, and Trade-Space Evaluation Annual Report

This project is intended to support the development of new traction drive systems that meet the targets of 100 kW/L for power electronics and 50 kW/L for electric machines with reliable operation to 300,000 miles. To meet these goals, new designs must be identified that make use of state-of-the-art and next-generation electronic materials and design methods. Designs must exploit synergies between components, for example converters designed for high-frequency switching using wide band gap (WBG) devices and ceramic capacitors. This project included: (1) a survey of available technologies; (2) investigating new technologies, that for example, reduce volume of thermal management or magnetic components; (3) the development of computer aided design tools that consider the converter volume, reliability, and electrical performance; (4) exercising the design software to evaluate performance gaps and predict the impact of certain technologies and design approaches, i.e. GaN semiconductors, ceramic capacitors, ceramic thermal management components, and select topologies; (5) building and testing hardware prototypes to validate models and concepts. The design tools enable co-optimization of the power module and passive elements and provide some design guidance. At the end of the project, new advanced computing methods, such as machine learning approaches, were considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

INTEGRATE - Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements

The INTEGRATE (Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements) project is developing a new inverse-design capability for the aerodynamic design of wind turbine rotors using invertible neural networks. This AI-based design technology can capture complex non-linear aerodynamic effects while being 100 times faster than design approaches based on computational fluid dynamics. This project enables innovation in wind turbine design by accelerating time to market through higher-accuracy early design iterations to reduce the levelized cost of energy. INVERTIBLE NEURAL NETWORKS Researchers are leveraging a specialized invertible neural network (INN) architecture along with the novel dimension-reduction methods and airfoil/blade shape representations developed by collaborators at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) learns complex relationships between airfoil or blade shapes and their associated aerodynamic and structural properties. This INN architecture will accelerate designs by providing a cost-effective alternative to current industrial aerodynamic design processes, including: - Blade element momentum (BEM) theory models: limited effectiveness for design of offshore rotors with large, flexible blades where nonlinear aerodynamic effects dominate - Direct design using computational fluid dynamics (CFD): cost-prohibitive - Inverse-design models based on deep neural networks (DNNs): attractive alternative to CFD for 2D design problems, but quickly overwhelmed by the increased number of design variables in 3D problems AUTOMATED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS FOR TRAINING DATA GENERATION - MERCURY FRAMEWORK The INN is trained on data obtained using the University of Marylands (UMD) Mercury Framework, which has with robust automated mesh generation capabilities and advanced turbulence and transition models validated for wind energy applications. Mercury is a multi-mesh paradigm, heterogeneous CPU-GPU framework. The framework incorporates three flow solvers at UMD, 1) OverTURNS, a structured solver on CPUs, 2) HAMSTR, a line based unstructured solver on CPUs, and 3) GARFIELD, a structured solver on GPUs. The framework is based on Python, that is often used to wrap C or Fortran codes for interoperability with other solvers. Communication between multiple solvers is accomplished with a Topology Independent Overset Grid Assembler (TIOGA). NOVEL AIRFOIL SHAPE REPRESENTATIONS USING GRASSMAN SPACES We developed a novel representation of shapes which decouples affine-style deformations from a rich set of data-driven deformations over a submanifold of the Grassmannian. The Grassmannian representation as an analytic generative model, informed by a database of physically relevant airfoils, offers (i) a rich set of novel 2D airfoil deformations not previously captured in the data , (ii) improved low-dimensional parameter domain for inferential statistics informing design/manufacturing, and (iii) consistent 3D blade representation and perturbation over a sequence of nominal shapes. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER DEMONSTRATION - COUPLING WITH NREL WISDEM Researchers have integrated the inverse-design tool for 2D airfoils (INN-Airfoil) into WISDEM (Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model), a multidisciplinary design and optimization framework for assessing the cost of energy, as part of tech-transfer demonstration. The integration of INN-Airfoil into WISDEM allows for the design of airfoils along with the blades that meet the dynamic design constraints on cost of energy, annual energy production, and the capital costs. Through preliminary studies, researchers have shown that the coupled INN-Airfoil + WISDEM approach reduces the cost of energy by around 1% compared to the conventional design approach. This page will serve as a place to easily access all the publications from this work and the repositories for the software developed and released through this pr...

aerodynamics↗

International Energy Agency Ocean Energy Systems Task 10 Wave Energy Converter Modeling Verification and Validation: Preprint

This is the first joint reference paper for the Ocean Energy Systems (OES) Task 10 Wave Energy Converter modeling verification and validation group. The group is established under the OES Energy Technology Network program under the International Energy Agency. OES was founded in 2001 and Task 10 was proposed by Bob Thresher (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) in 2015 and approved by the OES Executive Committee EXCO in 2016. The kickoff workshop took place in September 2016, wherein the initial baseline task was defined. Experience from similar offshore wind validation/verification projects (OC3-OC5 conducted within the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30) [1], [2] showed that a simple test case would help the initial cooperation to present results in a comparable way. A heaving sphere was chosen as the first test case. The team of project participants simulated different numerical experiments, such as heave decay tests and regular and irregular wave cases. The simulation results are presented and discussed in this paper.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Megahertz Rate Optical Diagnostics of Explosively Generated Soot

Detonation of a solid explosive produces a turbulent and luminous post‐detonation fireball containing condensed carbon soot. Diagnostics of soot dynamics are needed for model validation and to interpret emission signals. Diffuse back‐illumination extinction imaging (DBI‐EI) and laser‐induced incandescence (LII) are two common optical diagnostics for flame soot. This work extends both to measure time‐resolved soot dynamics from a 12 mm HMX hemisphere. DBI‐EI measured line‐of‐sight optical extinction exceeds 99% in some regions. Results are tomographically inverted to obtain a signal proportional to the soot volume fraction. Pulse‐burst LII measures are presented at 1 MHz. For the first time, LII results are combined with DBI‐EI extinction measurements to quantify and correct for signal trapping. Following this, spatially and temporally resolved DBI‐EI and LII measures are shown to be in reasonable agreement. Finally, experimental results are compared against recently developed simulations. Quantitative differences in the soot mixing dynamics are resolved. These findings motivate future model improvements and demonstrate ongoing needs for diagnostic advancements for heavily sooting environments.

diffuse back-illumination extinction imaging↗

Validation of Numerical Models of the Offshore Wind Turbine From the Alpha Ventus Wind Farm Against Full-Scale Measurements Within OC5 Phase III

The main objective of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation, with Correlation (OC5) project is validation of aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulation tools for offshore wind turbines (OWTs) through comparison of simulated results to the response data of physical systems. Phase III of the OC5 project validates OWT models against the measurements recorded on a Senvion 5M wind turbine supported by the OWEC Quattropod from the alpha ventus offshore wind farm. The following operating conditions of the wind turbine were chosen for the validation: (1) idling below the cut-in wind speed, (2) rotor-nacelle assembly (RNA) rotation maneuver below the cut-in wind speed, (3) power production below and above the rated wind speed, and (4) shutdown. A number of validation load cases were defined based on these operating conditions. The following measurements were used for validation: (1) strains and accelerations recorded on the support structure and (2) pitch, yaw, and azimuth angles, generator speed, and electrical power recorded from the RNA. Strains were not directly available from the majority of the OWT simulation tools; therefore, strains were calculated based on out-of-plane bending moments, axial forces, and cross-sectional properties of the structural members. The simulation results and measurements were compared in terms of time series, discrete Fourier transforms, power spectral densities, and probability density functions of strains and accelerometers. A good match was achieved between the measurements and models setup by OC5 Phase III participants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Diffusive confinement of free radical intermediates in the OH radical oxidation of semisolid aerosols

Multiphase chemical reactions (gas + solid/liquid) involve a complex interplay between bulk and interface chemistry, diffusion, evaporation, and condensation. Reactions of atmospheric aerosols are an important example of this type of chemistry: the rich array of particle phase states and multiphase transformation pathways produce diverse but poorly understood interactions between chemistry and transport. Their chemistry is of intrinsic interest because of their role in controlling climate. Their characteristics also make them useful models for the study of principles of reactivity of condensed materials under confined conditions. Previously, we have reported a computational study of the oxidation chemistry of a liquid aliphatic aerosol. In this study, we extend the calculations to investigate nearly the same reactions at a semisolid gas-aerosol interface. A reaction-diffusion model for heterogeneous oxidation of triacontane by hydroxyl radicals (OH) is described, and its predictions are compared to measurements of aerosol size and composition, which evolve continuously during oxidation. Our results are also explicitly compared to those obtained for the corresponding liquid system, squalane, to pinpoint salient elements controlling reactivity. The diffusive confinement of the free radical intermediates at the interface results in enhanced importance of a few specific chemical processes such as the involvement of aldehydes in fragmentation and evaporation, and a significant role of radical-radical reactions in product formation. The simulations show that under typical laboratory conditions semisolid aerosols have highly oxidized nanometer-scale interfaces that encapsulate an unreacted core and may confer distinct optical properties and enhanced hygroscopicity. This highly oxidized layer dynamically evolves with reaction, which we propose to result in plasticization. The validated model is used to predict chemistry under atmospheric conditions, where the OH radical concentration is much lower. The oxidation reactions are more strongly influenced by diffusion in the particle, resulting in a more liquid-like character.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of a high current density, high temperature superconducting cable for pulsed magnets

Abstract A low AC loss Rare Earth Barium Copper Oxide (REBCO) cable, based on the VIPER cable technology has been developed by Commonwealth Fusion Systems for use in high field, REBCO based tokamaks. The new cable is composed of partitioned and transposed copper ‘petals’ shaped to fit together in a circular pattern with each petal containing a REBCO tape stack and insulated from each other to reduce AC losses. A stainless steel jacket adds mechanical robustness—also serving as a vessel for solder impregnation—while a tube runs through the middle for cooling purposes. Additionally, fiber optic sensors are placed under the tape stacks for quench detection. To qualify this design, a series of experiments were conducted as part of the SPARC tokamak Central Solenoid Model Coil program—to retire the risks associated with full scale, fast ramping, high flux HTS Central Solenoid (CS) and Poloidal Field (PF) coils for tokamak fusion power plants and net energy demonstrators. These risk study and risk reduction experiments include (1) AC loss measurement and model validation in the range of ~5 T/s, (2) an IxB electromagnetic loading of over 850 kN/m at the cable level and up to 300 kN/m at the stack level, (3) a transverse compression resilience of over 350 MPa, (4) manufacturability at tokamak relevant speeds and scales, (5) cable to cable joint performance, (6) fiber optic based quench detection speed, accuracy, and feasibility, and (7) overall winding pack integration and magnet assembly. The result is a cable technology, now referred to as PIT VIPER, with AC losses that measure fifteen times lower (at ~5 T/s) than its predecessor technology; a 2% or lower degradation of critical current (Ic) at high IxB electromagnetic loads; no detectable Ic degradation up to 570 MPa of transverse compression on the cable unit cell; end to end magnet manufacturing, consistently producing Ic values within 7% of the model prediction; cable to cable joint resistances at 20 K on the order of ~15 nΩ; and fast, functional quench detection capabilities that do not involve voltage taps. This cable technology will be tested comprehensively in a Central Solenoid Model Coil to prove its readiness for compact, high field tokamak operation.

Sanabria, Charlie (ORCID:0000000150175309)↗

gcamland v1.0 – An R Package for Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Change

gcamland is an open source R package that was built to allocate land across a variety of types based on changes in agricultural yield and commodity price. The land allocation algorithm is based on the one included in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). gcamland includes the ability to run in a historical mode, enabling model validation and parameter estimation, or in a future mode, simulating changes in land use/land cover in the future. For both modes, gcamland can run a single simulation or a large ensemble of simulations with different parameters. When ensembles are generated in the historical mode, gcamland calculates the likelihood of a given parameter set by comparing to observational data. gcamland is publicly available via GitHub and has can be adjusted to represent alternative scenarios or configured to different regions and land types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating Bidirectional Reflectance and Monitoring Stability of SNPP-VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands Using A Deep Neural Network

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System project provides the scientific community with observed top-of-atmosphere shortwave and longwave fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. To provide consistent VIIRS cloud retrievals, the CERES Imager and Geostationary Calibration Group (IGCG) must understand and quantify the stability of the VIIRS instruments. To achieve this, the IGCG utilizes tropical deep convective clouds (DCCs) as invariant targets. Proper seasonal characterization of the DCC bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) is key to the success of DCC-based calibration methods, particularly for shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands. This article proposes the use of a deep neural network (DNN) to characterize VIIRS solar reflective band BRDF reflectance, with which individual channel trends are isolated by manipulating the DNN time input. Initial results show that the DNN method can extract statistically significant SNPP-VIIRS band trends, using only SNPP-VIIRS inputs, that are correlative to and match the magnitude of significant trends determined using methods that rely on an external angular distribution model. It may be possible to apply this approach to actively monitor the stability of new instruments without the need for predetermined seasonal BRDF corrections.

Benjamin Scarino↗

A predictive analytical model of electrical transport in multi-principal-element alloys

A predictive analytical model is presented for the electrical conductivity of multi-principal-element alloys (MPEAs), including those containing aluminum, transition metals, and refractory metals. Given that the lattice parameter of the Wigner-Seitz cell of an MPEA is similarly variable to a bulk metallic glass, it is postulated that electron scattering can be approximated by a series of two-level systems. Here, the resulting reduced-order model enabled an accurate determination of electrical resistivity and electron thermal conductivity based on the scattering of electrons in a two-level system across a Bloch-potential-based virtual crystal approximation. Model results are compared to experimental four-point probe electrical resistivity measurements between 300 K and 700 K for Al 0.3 CoCrCuFeNi, CoCrFeMnNi, (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.98 W 0.02 , (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.95 W 0.05 , and Nb 4 Ta 4 V 3 Ti, for model validation.

Analytical model↗

The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM

Shifting wind patterns are an expected consequence of global climate change, with direct implications for wind energy production. However, wind is notoriously difficult to predict, and significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of climate change impacts on existing wind generation capacity. Historical and future wind climatology and associated capacity factors at five wind turbine sites in California are examined. Historical (1980–2000) and mid-century (2030–2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to understand how these wind generation sites are expected to be impacted by climate change. A high-resolution statistically downscaled WRF product provided by DNV GL, reanalysis datasets MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, and observational data were used for model validation and comparison. These projections suggest that wind power generation capacity throughout the state is expected to increase during the summer, and decrease during fall and winter, based on significant changes at several wind farm sites. Finally, this study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances our understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗