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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

LiAISON (Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) [SWR-24-01]

We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE)7. We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming. Scientific publication available here: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c04246

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗
DOE OSTI2023

BUTTER-Clarifier [SWR-23-61]

This repository contains a python package of neural network interpretability techniques (interpretability) and a keras callback to easily compute and capture data related to these techniques (values metrics) during training. It was developed to be used with NREL's BUTTER Deep Learning Experimental Framework, but does not depend on this framework and may be useful to projects outside of this framework. The vision for this codebase is to collect algorithms for explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) in a single framework that is easy to use, easy to read, and can be expand upon. Here, we package XAI algorithms into a module called "metrics", which are implemented as python functions. The return type of a metric is typically a dictionary holding data of multiple data types, such as real values and numpy matrices. Callbacks and any other connector code is provided as necessary in a separate module to make these metrics more easily usable. This project depends on Tensorflow's Keras API, although it would be nice to try and support multiple backends one day. Related to: https://github.com/NREL/BUTTER-Empirical-Deep-Learning-Experimental-Framework

Perr-Sauer, Jordan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Supply Security Index (eesi) v0.1.0

This software computes different metrics that quantify energy supply security. It computes metrics for the amount of energy self-production, autonomy, system adequacy, self-sufficiency and autarky. The software has been developed to compute metrics that are introduced in a journal manuscript, and the software is intended to be published to make the underlying metric calculation accessible and reproducible to the reader of the article. Potential use of the software is for policymakers, energy planners and researchers to guide energy system infrastructure decisions.

Sulzer, Matthias [Swiss Federal Laboratories for M↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limited Role of Absolute Humidity in Intraurban Heat Variability

Abstract Monitoring and understanding the variability of heat within cities is important for urban planning and public health, and the number of studies measuring intraurban temperature variability is growing. Recognizing that the physiological effects of heat depend on humidity as well as temperature, measurement campaigns have included measurements of relative humidity alongside temperature. However, the role the spatial structure in humidity, independent from temperature, plays in intraurban heat variability is unknown. Here we use summer temperature and humidity from networks of stationary sensors in multiple cities in the United States to show spatial variations in the absolute humidity within these cities are weak. This variability in absolute humidity plays an insignificant role in the spatial variability of the heat index and humidity index (humidex), and the spatial variability of the heat metrics is dominated by temperature variability. Thus, results from previous studies that considered only intraurban variability in temperature will carry over to intraurban heat variability. Also, this suggests increases in humidity from green infrastructure interventions designed to reduce temperature will be minimal. In addition, a network of sensors that only measures temperature is sufficient to quantify the spatial variability of heat across these cities when combined with humidity measured at a single location, allowing for lower-cost heat monitoring networks. Significance Statement Monitoring the variability of heat within cities is important for urban planning and public health. While the physiological effects of heat depend on temperature and humidity, it is shown that there are only weak spatial variations in the absolute humidity within nine U.S. cities, and the spatial variability of heat metrics is dominated by temperature variability. This suggests increases in humidity will be minimal resulting from green infrastructure interventions designed to reduce temperature. It also means a network of sensors that only measure temperature is sufficient to quantify the spatial variability of heat across these cities when combined with humidity measured at a single location.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

A spatial evaluation of Arctic sea ice and regional limitations in CMIP6 historical simulations

The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study examines the historical representation of sea ice extent, volume, and thickness using spatial analysis metrics, such as the integrated ice-edge error, Brier score, and Spatial Probability Score. We find that the CMIP6 multi-model mean captures the mean annual cycle and 1979-2014 sea ice trends remarkably well. However, individual models experience a wide range of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sea ice when compared against satellite measurements and reanalysis data. Our metrics expose common and individual regional model biases, which sea ice temporal analyses alone do not capture. We identify large ice edge and ice thickness errors in Arctic sub-regions, implying possible model specific limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. We postulate that many of them could be related to the oceanic forcing, especially in the marginal and shelf seas, where seasonal sea ice changes are not adequately simulated. We therefore conclude that an individual model’s ability to represent the observed/reanalysis spatial distribution still remains a challenge. We propose the spatial analysis metrics as useful tools to diagnose model limitations, narrow down possible processes affecting them, and guide future model improvements critical to the representation and projections of Arctic climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for Sustainable Co-Production of Plant Lipids and Cellulosic Sugars from Transgenic Energycane at an Industrially Relevant Scale: A Proof of Concept for Alternative Feedstocks

Development of sustainable and scalable technologies to convert lignocellulosic biomass to biofuels is critical to achieving carbon neutrality. The potential of transgenic bioenergy crops as a renewable source of sugars and lipids has been demonstrated at bench-scale. However, scaling up these processes is important for holistic analysis. Here proof-of-concept for chemical-free hydrothermal pretreatment of transgenic energycane-oilcane line L13 at an industrially relevant scale to recover vegetative lipids along with cellulosic sugars is presented. Pilot-scale processing of 97 kg of transgenic energycane-oilcane L13 stems and high solids pretreatment of bagasse enhanced the recovery of cellulosic glucose and xylose by 5-fold as compared to untreated bagasse and helped in the enrichment of vegetative lipids in the biomass residues which allowed its recovery at the end of the bioprocess. Palmitic and oleic acids were the predominant fatty acids (FAs) extracted from stems and leaves. The processing did not affect lipid composition. The efficiency of lipid recovery from untreated biomass was 75.9% which improved to 88.7% upon pretreatment. The vegetative tissues of transgenic energycane-oilcane L13 contained 0.42 metric tons/hectare of lipids. Processing vegetative tissues yielded 0.38 metric tons/hectare of lipids. This approaches an oil yield similar to soybean (global average 0.44 metric tons/hectare) and is almost twice as high as the oil yield from sugarcane engineered to hyperaccumulate lipids (0.20 metric tons/hectare). The study suggests that further optimization by state-of-the-art metabolic engineering and biomass processing can establish transgenic bioenergy crops for commercial drop-in fuel production.

Biomass Analytics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proteome-scale Structure Prediction Data - Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii

The number of proteins predicted for Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii is 3,446, each of which have five predicted structures from an AlphaFold run, as well as structural alignment results using the TMscore-based structural alignment method within the APoc program. Specifically, AlphaFold outputs the atoms and coordinates of the protein model in human-readable PDB files and quantitative prediction metrics in Python PICKLE files. The 5 models have been ranked based on the predicted TM-score (pTMS), a quantitative confidence metric output by AlphaFold that reports on protein model quality. The top ranked model has undergone an energy minimization calculation to relax and remove any potential clashes in the atomic coordinates. Structural alignment results are stored in two files for each protein; the top ranked model (as discussed above) is used for all alignment analyses. Both are compressed gzip files that, once unpacked, are human readable. The first file is the TMalign score results and contains the quantitative metrics for the top alignments between the predicted structure and experimental structures from the PDB70, a curated non-redundant database of about 80,000 experimental structures developed by the Soding lab. Each data point in this file is directly associated with one experimental structure; PDB ID and brief meta-data about the protein taken from the PDB70 file are reported alongside the quantitative metrics. The second results file contains the raw results associated with each alignment reported in the score results file. Specifically, the translation and rotation arrays for each alignment are provided so that the structural alignment can be recreated. Additionally, residue-level scores are reported to quantify the closeness of the aligned residues between the predicted and experimental models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fleet Utilization

A key goal of NextGen Profiles' fleet utilization study was to conduct a comprehensive, strategic, and standardized assessment of the operational behavior and utilization patterns across EV and EVSE production-ready fleets. These data-driven insights were intended to inform current fleet management strategies and support future infrastructure planning, ensuring the effective adoption and adaptation of the growing EV fleet market. The study applied a series of metrics defined in NextGen Profiles to evaluate diverse fleet operations across various use cases, emphasizing trends in charging, routing, and other critical behaviors. The fleet utilization dataset includes these three sets of metrics from 17 EV fleets, each consisting of a wide range of vehicle types and operational categories, as well as two EVSE fleets. Data were collected from a variety of sources and reformatted into a unified structure before metric computation, ensuring consistency and comparability across all fleets. To protect confidentiality, all fleet metadata are anonymized, and the publicly released metric datasets are aggregated to an hourly cadence.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reference data, predictors, and probability grids for forest degradation classes in three sites in the Brazilian Amazon

Forest degradation by fires and selective logging is widespread in the Amazon region. We implemented a gradient boosted classification modeling framework to classify intact, logged, and burned forests at three Amazonian sites: Feliz Natal Municipality and Xingu Indigenous Territory in Mato Grosso State, and Saracá-Taquera National Forest in Pará State. We used forest degradation history from Landsat time-series as reference data and textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images as predictors. Textural metrics were computed using the Gray-Level Co-Occurrence Matrix (GLCM) textural technique. Included in the attached zip file are ten files: - a shapefile containing the reference data (fire and selective logging polygons and year of event) for each site; - a multiband tif file containing the 8 GLCM metrics used as predictors (Mean, Variance, Homogeneity, Contrast, Dissimilarity, Entropy, Angular Second Moment, Correlation) at the original PlanetScope resolution (3.125m) for each site; - a multiband tif file containing the 72 aggregated GLCM metrics used as predictors (Mean, Variance, Homogeneity, Contrast, Dissimilarity, Entropy, Angular Second Moment, and Correlation aggregated using the mean, first quartile, third quartile, maximum, median, minimum, root mean square, standard deviation, and skewness statistics) at 562m resolution for each site; - a multiband tif file containing the 3 probability grids for either intact, logged, or burned forests at the aggregation resolution (562m) for each site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning enhanced characterization and optimization of photonic cured MAPbI 3 for efficient perovskite solar cells

Photonic curing (PC) can facilitate high-speed perovskite solar cell (PSC) manufacturing because it uses high-intensity light pulses to crystallize perovskite films in milliseconds. However, optimizing PC conditions is challenging due to its many variables, and using power conversion efficiency (PCE) as the optimization metric is both time-consuming and labor-intensive. This work presents a machine learning (ML) approach to optimize PC conditions for fabricating methylammonium lead iodide (MAPbI 3 ) films by quantitatively comparing their ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) absorbance spectra to thermal annealed (TA) films using four similarity metrics. We perform Bayesian optimization coupled with Gaussian process regression (BO-GP) to minimize the similarity metrics. Refining PC conditions using active learning based on BO-GP models, we achieve a PC MAPbI3 film with an absorbance spectrum closely matching a TA reference film, which is further verified by its crystalline and morphological properties. Thus, we demonstrate that the UV-vis absorption spectrum can accurately proxy film quality. Additionally, we use an AI-based segmentation model for a more efficient grain size analysis. However, when we use the optimized PC condition to fabricate PSCs, we find that interaction between MAPbI 3 and the hole transport layer (HTL) during PC critically degrades the PSC performance. By adding a buffer layer between the HTL and MAPbI 3 , the optimized PC PSCs produce a champion PCE of 11.8%, comparable to the TA reference of 11.7%. Using UV-vis similarity metrics instead of device PCE as the objective in our BO-GP method accelerates the optimization of PC processing conditions for MAPbI 3 films.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Models for Fracture and Pore Space Segmentation in Synthetic Fractured Digital Rocks

This study focuses on the comparative study of deep learning (DL) models for pore space and discrete fracture networks (DFNs) segmentation in synthetic fractured digital rocks, specifically targeting low-permeability rock formations, such as shale and tight sandstones. Accurate characterization of pore space and DFNs is critical for subsequent property analysis and fluid flow modeling. Four DL models, SegNet, U-Net, U-Net-wide, and nested U-Net (i.e., U-Net++), were trained, validated, and tested using synthetic datasets, including input and label image pairs with varying properties. The model performance was assessed regarding pixel-wise metrics, including the F1 score and pixel-wise difference maps. In addition, the physics-based metrics were considered for further analysis, including sample porosity and absolute permeability. Particularly, We first simulated the permeability of porous media containing only pore space and then simulated the permeability of porous media with DFNs added. The difference between these two values is used to quantify the connectivity of segmented DFNs, which is an important parameter for low-permeability rocks. The pixel-wise metrics showed that the nested U-Net model outperformed the rest of the DL models in pore space and DFNs segmentation, with the SegNet model exhibiting the second-best performance. Particularly, nested U-Net enhanced segmentation accuracy for challenging boundary pixels affected by partial volume effects. The U-Net-wide model achieved improved accuracy compared to the U-Net model, which indicated the influence of parameter numbers. Similarly, nested U-Net has the closest match to the ground truth of physics-based metrics, including the porosity of pore space and DFNs, and the permeability difference quantifying the connectivity of DFNs. The findings highlight the effectiveness of DL models, especially the U-Net++ model with nested architecture and redesigned skip connections, in accurately segmenting pore spaces and DFNs, which are crucial for pore-scale fluid flow and transport simulation in low-permeability rocks.

Wang, Hongsheng↗
DOE OSTI2020

Blind Modeling Validation Exercises Using the Horizontal Dry Cask Simulator

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established a need to understand the thermal-hydraulic properties of dry storage systems for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in response to a shift towards the storage of high-burnup (HBU) fuel (> 45 gigawatt days per metric ton of uranium, or GWd/MTU). This shift raises concerns regarding cladding integrity, which faces increased risk at the higher temperatures within spent fuel assemblies present within HBU fuel compared to low-burnup fuel (≤ 45 GWd/MTU). A dry cask simulator (DCS) was built at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico to produce validation-quality data that can be used to test the accuracy of the modeling used to predict cladding temperatures. These temperatures are critical to evaluating cladding integrity throughout the storage cycle of commercial spent nuclear fuel. A model validation exercise was previously carried out for the DCS in a vertical configuration. Lessons learned during the previous validation exercise have been applied to a new, blind study using a horizontal dry cask simulator (HDCS). Three modeling institutions – the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and Empresa Nacional del Uranio, S.A., S.M.E. (ENUSA) – were granted access to the input parameters from the DCS Handbook, SAND2017-13058R, and results from a limited data set from the horizontal BWR dry cask simulator tests reported in the HDCS update report, SAND2019-11688R. With this information, each institution was tasked to calculate peak cladding temperatures and air mass flow rates for ten HDCS test cases. Axial as well as vertical and horizontal transverse temperature profiles were also calculated. These calculations were done using modeling codes (ANSYS/Fluent, STAR-CCM+, or COBRA-SFS), each with their own unique combination of modeling assumptions and boundary conditions. For this validation study, the ten test cases of the horizontal dry cask simulator were defined by three independent variables – fuel assembly decay heat (0.5 kW, 1 kW, 2.5 W, and 5 kW), internal backfill pressure (100 kPa and 800 kPa), and backfill gas (helium and air). The plots provided in Chapter 3 of this report show the axial, vertical, and horizontal temperature profiles obtained from the dry cask simulator experiments in the horizontal configuration and the corresponding models used to describe the thermal-hydraulic behavior of this system. The tables provided in Chapter 3 illustrate the closeness of fit of the model data to the experiment data through root mean square (RMS) calculations of the error in peak cladding temperatures (PCTs), PCT axial locations, axial temperature profiles, vertical and horizontal temperature profiles at two different axial locations, and air mass flow rates for the ten test cases, normalized by the experimental results. The model results are assigned arbitrary model numbers to retain anonymity. Due to the relatively flat axial temperature profiles, small temperature gradients resulted in large deviations of all models’ PCT axial location from the experimental PCT axial location. When the PCT axial location error is excluded in the calculation of the combined RMS of the normalized errors that considers PCT, the temperature profiles, and the air mass flow rates, the model data fits the experimental data to within 5%. When the vault information is excluded, the model data fits the experimental data to within 2.5%. An error analysis was developed further for one model, using the model and experimental uncertainties in each validation parameter to calculate validation uncertainties. The uncertainties for each parameter were used to define quantifiable validation criteria. For this analysis, the model was considered validated for a given comparison metric if the normalized error in that metric divided by the validation uncertainty was less than or equal to 1. When considering the combined RMS of the normalized errors of all metrics divided by their validation uncertainties, the model was found to have satisfied the criterion for model validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low-Enriched Uranium Low Density Silicide Fuel Design Parameters

High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) conversion activities are ongoing as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities studying the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a low density uranium-silicide dispersion (U 3 Si 2 -Al) fuel, which has a uranium density of 4.8 gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. The documented designs will serve as references for fuel fabrication and qualification activities. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools enable quick prototyping of fuel designs. Shift, a Monte Carlo neutron transport and depletion tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, is used for efficient fuel cycle and performance metrics calculations. The HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) is used to vet the thermal safety margin. Also, a new automation tool that connects all fuel design analysis steps, named Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME), has been developed to expedite the design study in an efficient and reproducible manner. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected for varying fabrication complexity. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU low density U 3 Si 2 -Al fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal, best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities are provided for candidate fuel designs relevant to framing irradiation experiments to support fuel qualification efforts. Simulations show that the low density U 3 Si 2 -Al, with design features to enhance safety, can meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements if the reactor power is increased from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW (LEU) and if the active fuel length is increased from 50.80 cm (HEU) to 55.88 cm (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cambium Documentation: Version 2021

Cambium is a tool that assembles structured data sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision-making. It was built to expand the metrics reported in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Standard Scenarios - an annually released set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, looking forward through 2050 (Cole et al. 2021) Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets for the Standard Scenarios can be viewed and downloaded at https://cambium.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we define the metrics reported in Cambium databases (Section 4) and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics (Section 5). As this document is intended to cover multiple Cambium data releases, we do not document specific scenarios here - for individual data releases, readers should look for an accompanying report that describes the assumptions and data that underlie that specific release. For Cambium databases that are built on NREL's Standard Scenarios, for example, reports describing the scenarios can be found on the Standard Scenarios web site (https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/standard-scenarios.html).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regional Variation in Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicle Emissions

Automobile electrification is viewed as one of the key requirements for deep decarbonization of transportation. However, the exact magnitude of decarbonization from switching from a combustion of petroleum-based fuels to grid-derived electricity is a complex issue. Variations in local grid mixes lead to differing carbon intensities of electricity in different regions. This complexity is compounded by geographical differences in vehicle characteristics. This analysis considers these geographic differences to produce a historical assessment of the fuel-cycle carbon emissions of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the United States from 2011 to 2021. We find that PEVs in the United States decreased in electricity-derived carbon intensity, from 187 grams per mile to 110 grams per mile from 2011 to 2021 due to improvements in the electric grid and vehicle efficiency. Through 2021, PEVs emitted a total of 13.6 million metric tons of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States, including both emissions from electricity and gasoline, while driving a total of 100 billion miles. Of this total, 8.39 million metric tons was due to electricity consumption. Over the same distance, comparable gasoline vehicles would have emitted between 29 and 41 million metric tons of GHG, leading to a reduction of 15 to 27 million metric tons. Relative to national-level assessments that do not factor in this regional difference, these electric vehicles resulted in 13% greater reductions in GHG emissions than previously calculated. In the future, announced goals to further decarbonize the electricity sector will continue to reduce the emissions of PEVs, including reducing emissions rates for vehicles already on the road, further improving the benefits relative to the unchanging emissions of contemporaneous gasoline vehicles.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Seasonal Energy Performance for Room Air Conditioners in Multiple Climates

This report provides a general approach for adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric by examining the climate-specific temperature bin distribution for air conditioner use, the seasonal energy efficiency results according to International Standards Organization (ISO) 16358 by climate region, and the relationships in seasonal energy efficiency across regional metrics. This approach could make the seasonal efficiency metric values comparable with those from other countries with standards consistent with ISO 16358. Policy action and market transformation can be accelerated and effectively harmonized with other regional or international efforts by adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric. The framework and methodology described in this report have been applied in the following publications: Shaffie et al. 2022, Park et al. 2021, Park et al. 2019, and UNEP 2019a.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing a simulator-based satellite dataset for using machine learning techniques to derive aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in models and observations in a consistent framework

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions (ACPI) remain a major uncertainty in understanding the Earth’s radiation budget and water cycle (including extremes). After decades of active research, various observationally based metrics have been developed to constrain ACPI in Earth System Models (ESMs), but direct comparison of model and data estimates can confound scientific understanding because limitations and uncertainties in sampling and retrieval procedures may combine with model deficiencies in process representations of ACPI to obstruct understanding. Furthermore, conventional ACPI metrics often vary from one regime to another, and the ACPI process representation in ESMs is also typically derived based on only a limited area/regime (even though the parameterization applies globally). To bridge the gap between models and data and to correctly describe ACPI in all regimes, we propose to construct a new CALIPSO-CloudSat merged dataset that is produced by the same algorithms used in satellite simulators in ESMs, and to use machine learning techniques to derive new ACPI metrics that can be accurately estimated by satellites and can provide meaningful constraints on cloud microphysical process representations in ESMs. The dataset will include measured and retrieved variables for aerosol, cloud, and precipitation from CALIPSO and CloudSat, and environmental variables from meteorological reanalysis. The data will be used to train a neural network to construct the ACPI metrics as a function of environmental conditions. The new ACPI formula will be used to constrain the ACPI in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), and to augment/reformulate the ACPI process representation in the E3SM to improve the simulation of the evolution of the atmosphere under different environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Benchmarking (Rev. 3)

A benchmarking analysis of RTES research funded by GTO through the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted against the ESGC to see where they fit within the identified ESGC Use Cases. The projects were found to advance knowledge in multiple ESGC use cases, either directly or in some cases, indirectly as enabling technologies. This analysis is helpful to understand where RTES and associated research fits into the larger discussion around energy storage technologies. Also, a retrospective analysis of the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted to evaluate what the projects learned and how the results can be applied to advance the value of RTES. Major results of each of the studies are summarized in Table 2. Additionally, a comparative metrics analysis for RTES was completed to understand where RTES lies within the energy storage industry. Metrics for evaluation of RTES and its comparison to other storage technologies were selected and ranges of their values compiled. The selected metrics – LCOE (levelized cost of energy), capital costs, roundtrip efficiency, energy storage capacity, and storage time – were chosen based on data availability and have a particularly strong influence on the potential deployment of a storage technology. Charts which compare the metrics are presented in section 4.3 and show ranges for each of the 10 selected technologies. However, due to a lack of domestic operational facilities, values for RTES and for portions of the remaining technologies are based on theoretical modeling and studies of best-case scenarios. LCOE estimates for RTES fall within the lower reaches of Figure 15, but nevertheless amount to 2 – 5 times the ESGC Roadmap goal for LCOE, for example in the Facilitating and Evolving Grid Use Case. Capital costs for RTES sit on the higher end (Figure 16) but are expected to decrease as new projects are developed and the technology is refined. The theoretical roundtrip efficiency reported for RTES varies from mid to high percentages (Figure 17) with efficiencies upwards of 93% in modeled scenarios in the Portland Basin (Bershaw et al.,2020). RTES is also expected to have the largest energy storage capacities and longest storage times, likely matched only by lower efficiency hydrogen storage. To better assess the role that RTES could play in energy storage we examined it’s potential in the U.S. The potential depends on many factors. Recently, many researchers have started looking at deep sedimentary basins, depleted oil and gas fields, and basalt formations as potential targets for RTES development. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has analyzed various cities and shown substantial RTES potential in the cooling sector (Pepin et al., 2021). By modeling RTES in low-quality groundwater (e.g., brackish), it is shown to be favorable across the U.S. with particular suitability in the Illinois Basin, Coastal Plains, and Basin and Range regions. Seasonal RTES operations have also been modeled in the Portland Basin by those at the USGS and Portland State University to simulate an RTES system supplying heating loads needed for the Oregon Health and Science University. Simulations suggest that high conductive heat loss in the initial years exists but tends to decrease with increasing time and development of the resource due to self-insulating nature of the basalts (Burns et al., 2020). Other national laboratory efforts are taking a close look at many of the technical issues involved with RTES (McLing et al., 2019, McLing et al., 2022). These include difficulties in understanding geochemical, hydrogeological, mechanical, and microbiological changes at such elevated temperatures and operational scenarios. Major gaps in research are identified and suggested for future work. With this increased focus to understand how to make RTES successful in the U.S., this technology could be a potential solution to many of the nation’s energy storage problems. For the energy independence of this country, the DOE should prioritize de-risking this technology by making future investments in pilot-scale demonstrations to attract potential investors.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗