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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

State-of-the-art short-term electricity market operation with solar generation: A review

With the accelerating penetration of solar energy in energy systems, market operations concerning the solar-associated intermittency are widely discussed. How to correctly model the solar generation in the market and solve the uncertainty-based operation problems call for solutions. Unlike other renewable resources, solar power can be more easily applied to the demand side through behind-the-meter installations in a distributed manner with significant future extensibility. The corresponding operational rules in the markets are largely being revised. Over the past two decades, with the development of deregulated power markets, numerous studies related to uncertainty-based market operations tend to transform the market from a deterministic and centralized framework to a stochastic and decentralized one. As the relevant literature is most recent, this paper reviews their contributions to electricity market operations with solar integration and underlines the research directions of this topic and ongoing industry practices. A thorough review of the electricity markets worldwide with solar energy is provided. A variety of proposed mathematical solutions to the problem are also addressed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO-TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long-term changes in the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP-historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP-historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled-historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO-TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cummins R-SOFC System Development

The overall purpose of this project was to reduce the Reversible-Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (R-SOFC) system cost by developing two technologies, an improved cell design and the incorporation of an ejector in the fuel recycle loop instead of a blower. A Simulink model of the baseline SOFC system was developed and calibrated with experimental test data. The R-SOFC system model was built by integrating GT Suite developed models of the steam generation components into the baseline Simulink SOFC system model. The ability to run the stack in SOEC operating mode was also added to the model. The system model was used to explore the ability of the R-SOFC system to meet operational constraints on Steam/Carbon ratio and H2 concentration on the fuel side electrode. A CFD ejector model was developed and used to explore a range of ejector design parameters, leading to the final ejector design that was prototyped for testing. A prototype steam ejector was first tested in a laboratory environment using room temperature air. The steam ejector was subsequently tested using the full hot recycle loop with all relevant heat exchangers and steam generation components. The test conditions utilized temperatures, pressures, and flow rates expected in an R-SOFC application. Throughout the experimental testing work, ejector performance test data was used to improve and then validate the CFD ejector model. A CFD cell model was developed and used to optimize thermal gradients, voltage, and cost of a new cell substrate design. A CFD comparison of co-flow and cross-flow cell designs informed the decision to use a co-flow design for the new cell substrate. Multiple rounds of CFD simulation were used to improve the cell design to minimize the variation in air and fuel distribution across cell channels and to minimize the variation in air and fuel distribution across different cells in the stack. A few prototypes of the new cell substrate design were produced and validated in a laboratory environment by thermally spraying and verifying that they met established manufacturing specifications. The cell manufacturing process was adjusted in order to bring these metrics within acceptable tolerances. Cummins’ internal calculations show that the new cell design reduces cost ~50% compared to the baseline cell, while the ejector + superheater/boiler concept reduces cost of the recycle loop by ~40%. The impact of these cost reductions on the cost of producing H2 will depend on the specific system where they are applied. Therefore, a Techno-Economic Analysis was completed using system cost as a variable, and showing how the NREL Current and Future system costs translate into H2 production cost.

Henrichsen, Lars↗

ROM-Based Surrogate Systems Modeling of EBR-II

We report the System Analysis Module (SAM), developed and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory, is designed to provide whole-plant transient safety analysis capabilities for a number of advanced non-light water reactors, including sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), and molten salt reactor (MSR)/fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) designs. SAM is primarily constructed as a systems-level analysis tool, with the potential to incorporate reduced order models from three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to improve characterization of complex, multidimensional physics. It is recognized that the computational expense associated with CFD can be intractable for various engineering analyses, such as uncertainty quantification, inference, and design optimization. This paper explores the reducibility of a SAM model using recent advances in randomized linear algebra techniques, which attempt to find recurring patterns in the various realizations generated by a model after randomly perturbing all its input parameters. The reduction is described in terms of fewer degrees of freedom (DOFs), referred to as the active DOFs, for the model variables such as input model parameters and model responses. The results indicate that there is significant room for additional reduction that may be leveraged for additional computational gains when employing SAM for engineering-intensive analyses that require repeated model executions. Different from physics-based reduction approaches, the proposed approach allows one to estimate upper bounds on the reduction errors, which are rigorously developed in this work. Finally, different methods for surrogate model construction, such as regression and neural network-based training, are employed to correlate the input and output active DOFs, which are related back to the original variables using matrix-based linear transformations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model output from simulations of manganese-carbon interactions in temperate forest soil profiles

This archive contains model output, code, and scripts for simulations of coupled manganese-carbon cycling in temperate forest soil profiles. These model results were generated as part of a study investigating how manganese availability influences soil organic carbon stocks and demonstrating a new model framework for coupling carbon and manganese cycling. The simulations were in support of a manuscript: "Modeling interactive effects of manganese bioavailability, nitrogen deposition, and warming on soil carbon storage." The study addresses the research questions: How does Mn bioavailability, as driven by subsurface mineral properties, pH, and redox status, affect temperate forest soil organic carbon and litter carbon stocks?How is the relationship between Mn bioavailability and carbon cycling affected by changes in temperature and nitrogen deposition?"Model simulations were conducted in a reactive transport modeling framework using PFLOTRAN coupled to python. Multiple model simulations testing different Mn-bearing mineral solubilities, hydrological patterns, nitrogen deposition rates, and temperatures are included. Soil properties, including total and exchangeable Mn concentrations, are based on values reported for the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), a temperate forested watershed in central Pennsylvania, U.S.A where Mn cycling through vegetation has been documented.File formats include netCDF (.nc), python script (.py), shell script (.sh), plain text PFLOTRAN input file (.in), and plain text PFLOTRAN database file (.dat), and gzipped tar archive (tar.gz).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the effect of MHD activity on runaway electron generation during SPARC disruptions

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities and runaway electrons (REs) interact in several ways, making it important to self-consistently model these interactions for accurate predictions of RE generation and the design of mitigation strategies, such as massive gas injection (MGI). Using M3D-C1 – an extended MHD code with a RE fluid model – we investigate the effects of 3-D nonlinear MHD activity, material injection, and 2-D axisymmetric vertical displacement events (VDEs) on RE evolution during disruptions on SPARC – a high-field, high-current tokamak designed to achieve a fusion gain Q > 1. Several cases, comprising different combinations of neon (Ne) and deuterium (D 2 ) injection, are considered. Here, our results demonstrate key effects that arise from the self-consistent RE + MHD coupling, such as an initial increase in RE generation due to MHD instability growth, decreased saturation energies of the m/n = 1/1 mode driving sawteeth-like activity, RE losses in stochastic magnetic fields, and subsequent RE confinement and plateau formation due to re-healing of flux surfaces. Large RE plateaus (>5 MA) are obtained with Ne-only injection (2-5 × 10 21 atoms), while combined D 2 + Ne injection (2 × 10 21 Ne atoms; 1.8 × 10 22 D 2 molecules) produces a lower RE current (<2 MA). With D 2 + Ne injection, a post thermal quench "cold" VDE terminates the RE beam, preventing a steady plateau. These simulations couple REs, 3-D MHD instabilities, MGI, and axisymmetric VDEs for the first time in SPARC disruption simulations and represent a crucial step in understanding RE generation and mitigation in high-current devices like SPARC.

Datta, Rishabh [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology ↗

Transferability of data-driven, many-body models for CO 2 simulations in the vapor and liquid phases

Here, extending on the previous work by Riera et al. [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16, 2246–2257 (2020)], we introduce a second generation family of data-driven many-body MB-nrg models for CO 2 and systematically assess how the strength and anisotropy of the CO 2 –CO 2 interactions affect the models’ ability to predict vapor, liquid, and vapor–liquid equilibrium properties. Building upon the many-body expansion formalism, we construct a series of MB-nrg models by fitting one-body and two-body reference energies calculated at the coupled cluster level of theory for large monomer and dimer training sets. Advancing from the first generation models, we employ the charge model 5 scheme to determine the atomic charges and systematically scale the two-body energies to obtain more accurate descriptions of vapor, liquid, and vapor–liquid equilibrium properties. Challenges in model construction arise due to the anisotropic nature and small magnitude of the interaction energies in CO 2 , calling for the necessity of highly accurate descriptions of the multidimensional energy landscape of liquid CO 2 . These findings emphasize the key role played by the training set quality in the development of transferable, data-driven models, which, accurately representing high-dimensional many-body effects, can enable predictive computer simulations of molecular fluids across the entire phase diagram.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hybrid Modeling of Three-Phase Grid-Supporting Inverters for Dynamic Studies

Grid technologies connected by power electronic converter (PEC) interfaces continually implement grid support functions mandated by grid codes and standards. The transition to converter-based generation demands precise PEC models to assess system dynamics, which have been previously overlooked in conventional power systems. This study proposes a hybrid method for analyzing grid-connected three-phase PEC dynamics with the IEEE standard 1547-2018 Volt-VAr mode that combines physics and data-driven techniques. The physics model reflects the PEC’s internal behavior, whereas the data-driven modeling technique evaluates the grid-supporting capabilities of the smart PEC. The system identification approach is used to generate dynamic PEC models based on changing grid voltage and measured current injected into the grid by the PEC. In the Volt-VAr support mode, a detailed topological model including switches is utilized to compare the goodness-of-fit of the extracted hybrid dynamic model. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PEC model in the Volt-VAr mode accurately matches the dynamics with the topological model.

Subedi, Sunil↗

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Complex Structural Disorder in a Polar Orthorhombic Perovskite Observed through the Maximum Entropy Method/Rietveld Technique

Ambient pressure stable perovskite oxides with all Bi3+ on the A-site are rare, with only four examples known. Due to the lone pair on Bi 3+ , these materials are seen as the best alternative to Pb-based piezoelectrics, which are used widely in society. The industry standard piezoelectric, Pb (Zr 1 – x Ti x )O 3 , relies on the [001] polarization of PbTiO 3 , but there are currently no ambient pressure stable Bi-based perovskites with this polarization vector, preventing the creation of an analogous system. We present the full structural analysis of the orthorhombic phase of (1 – x)Bi (Ti 3/8 Fe 2/8 Mg 3/8 )O 3 – x CaTiO 3 , which crystallizes in Pna2 1 symmetry with [001] polarization. This symmetry is rare and has only been reported twice for perovskites at ambient conditions. Analysis of maximum entropy method (MEM) models using synchrotron radiation powder X-ray diffraction reveals a disordered A-site configuration, and the MEM/Rietveld technique generates a structural model of this extreme disorder. Combined Rietveld analysis of X-ray and neutron diffraction data yields an accurate description of the local A-site configuration, which we use to understand our dielectric, ferroelectric, and piezoelectric measurements. These results give insight into how to stabilize this unique symmetry and inspire new design principles for Bi-based piezoelectrics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Correction and verification of x-ray imaging crystal spectrometer analysis on Wendelstein 7-X through x-ray ray tracing

X-ray ray tracing is used to develop ion-temperature corrections for the analysis of the X-ray Imaging Crystal Spectrometer (XICS) used at Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) and perform verification on the analysis methods. The XICS is a powerful diagnostic able to measure ion-temperature, electron-temperature, plasma flow, and impurity charge state densities. While these systems are relatively simple in design, accurate characterization of the instrumental response and validation of analysis techniques are difficult to perform experimentally due to the requirement of extended x-ray sources. For this reason, a ray tracing model has been developed that allows characterization of the spectrometer and verification of the analysis methods while fully considering the real geometry of the XICS system and W7-X plasma. Through the use of ray tracing, several important corrections have been found that must be accounted for in order to accurately reconstruct the ion-temperature profiles. The sources of these corrections are described along with their effect on the analyzed profiles. The implemented corrections stem from three effects: (1) effect of sub-pixel intensity distribution during de-curving and spatial binning, (2) effect of sub-pixel intensity distribution during forward model evaluation and generation of residuals, and (3) effect of defocus and spherical aberrations on the instrumental response. Possible improvements to the forward model and analysis procedures are explored, along with a discussion of trade-offs in terms of computational complexity. Finally, the accuracy of the tomographic inversion technique in stellarator geometry is investigated, providing for the first time a verification exercise for inversion accuracy in stellarator geometry and a complete XICS analysis tool-chain.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Chemical enrichment and radial migration in the Galactic disc – the origin of the [αFe] double sequence

The ([α/Fe], [Fe/H]) distribution of Milky Way stars shows at least two distinct sequences, which have traditionally been associated with the thin and thick disc components. The abundance distribution varies systematically with location R and |z| across the Galaxy. We reproduce this using an analytical chemodynamical model that includes the effects of radial migration and kinematic heating. Unlike some earlier models, our scheme does not require a distinct thick disc component emerging from a separate evolutionary path. The proposed model has a continuous star formation history and a continuous age velocity dispersion relation. Moreover, [α/Fe] is constant for stellar ages less than 8 Gyr, but increases sharply for older stars over a time-scale of 1.5 Gyr. The gap between the two sequences is due to this sharp transition. We show that the high-[α/Fe] sequence at the low-metallicity end is simply a pile-up of old stars, but towards the high-metallicity end, the age progressively decreases and stars have small birth radii. Our model successfully explains the uniformity of the locus of the high-[α/Fe] sequence across different locations. The low-[α/Fe] sequence contains stars with different birth radii that owes its existence to radial migration. For the low-[α/Fe] stars, angular momentum is anticorrelated with [Fe/H], while the opposite is true for high-[α/Fe] stars. We show that the later trend can be explained by the increase of circular velocity with time. If radial migration is not included, the model fails to generate the double sequence and instead shows only a single sequence. Our simple scheme has major advantages over earlier chemodynamical models, as we show.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Physics behind Precipitation Onset Bias in CMIP6 Models: The Pseudo-Entrainment Diagnostic and Trade-Offs between Lapse Rate and Humidity

Conditional instability and the buoyancy of plumes drive moist convection but have a variety of representations in model convective schemes. Vertical thermodynamic structure information from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and reanalysis (ERA5), satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM3b42), and diagnostics relevant for plume buoyancy are used to assess climate models. Previous work has shown that CMIP6 models represent moist convective processes more accurately than their CMIP5 counterparts. However, certain biases in convective onset remain pervasive among generations of CMIP modeling efforts. Here we diagnose these biases in a cohort of nine CMIP6 models with sub-daily output, assessing conditional instability in profiles of equivalent potential temperature θ e and saturation equivalent potential temperature θ es in comparison to a plume model with different mixing assumptions. Most models capture qualitative aspects of the θ es vertical structure, including a substantial decrease with height in the lower free troposphere associated with the entrainment of subsaturated air. We define a “pseudo-entrainment” diagnostic that combines subsaturation and a θ es measure of conditional instability similar to what entrainment would produce under the small-buoyancy approximation. This captures the trade-off between larger θ es lapse rates (entrainment of dry air) and small subsaturation (permits positive buoyancy despite high entrainment). This pseudo-entrainment diagnostic is also a reasonable indicator of the critical value of integrated buoyancy for precipitation onset. Models with poor θ e /θ es structure (those using variants of the Tiedtke Scheme) or low entrainment runs of CAM5, and models with low subsaturation, such as NASA-GISS, lie outside the observational range in this diagnostic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining mechanistic and machine learning models for predictive engineering and optimization of tryptophan metabolism

Abstract Through advanced mechanistic modeling and the generation of large high-quality datasets, machine learning is becoming an integral part of understanding and engineering living systems. Here we show that mechanistic and machine learning models can be combined to enable accurate genotype-to-phenotype predictions. We use a genome-scale model to pinpoint engineering targets, efficient library construction of metabolic pathway designs, and high-throughput biosensor-enabled screening for training diverse machine learning algorithms. From a single data-generation cycle, this enables successful forward engineering of complex aromatic amino acid metabolism in yeast, with the best machine learning-guided design recommendations improving tryptophan titer and productivity by up to 74 and 43%, respectively, compared to the best designs used for algorithm training. Thus, this study highlights the power of combining mechanistic and machine learning models to effectively direct metabolic engineering efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Techno-economic life cycle assessment of CO 2 -EOR operations towards net negative emissions at farnsworth field unit

Optimizations of CO 2 Water Alternating Gas(WAG)- systems with multi-objectives of incremental recovery and maximization of CO 2 storage are challenging. Here, the incorporation of a total Greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle assessment is mostly ignored leading to inaccurate estimation of overall net carbon emissions of their operations. In this study, the effect of a total GHG life cycle assessment on a multi-objective CO 2 -WAG optimization with integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) which factors carbon tax credit is conducted. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted utilizing a 20 -year optimized post history matched data from a high fidelity reservoir simulation model. Using data generated from the optimum result, a techno-economic life cycle analysis was further conducted. The first scenario classified as the base model had an estimated 81% of purchased CO 2 sequestered. The results through a comprehensive techno-economic LCA model yielded a net estimate of 73% of purchased CO 2 . The optimized forecasted model which considered key operational and reservoir factors such as WAG ratio, injection rates and periods, and well specification resulted in an improved sequestration of 92% of purchased CO 2 . However, this also dropped to 84% after taking it through LCA. These results clearly indicate a significant amount of net CO 2 is not accounted for when operations are not analyzed through LCA. From the LCA, direct flaring volumes of CO 2 , energy consumption and efficiency of unit equipment were noticed to be the major causes of these reductions. Considering ten main sources of energy as source of energy generation, a comparative techno-eco LCA was conducted. The results confirmed a lower net volume and NPV for energy sources with higher carbon footprints and vice versa. Thus, a total LCA of CO 2 -WAG greatly influences net storage factor of purchased CO 2 and hence project NPV where tax credit/incentives per ton of CO 2 sequestered is considered. Although operational conditions are optimized for best results, there are significant factors that leads to minimization of net storage factor. This study therefore provides an insightful information for optimizing CO 2 -WAG multi-objectives to achieve minimum GHG emission.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Creation of Multiple Effect Evaporator and Combined Cycle Modelica Modules, and Optimization of Potable Water Generation from Saltwater Sources (Final Technical Report)

Modelica models for a Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) and Multiple Effect Evaporator have been developed. These models have been validated against results from literature and from an actual cogeneration system on the campus of NC State University. The models are capable of connecting to other components to create multi-input, multi-output energy systems with storage, also known as integrated energy systems. An existing 35 MW gas turbine model is connected to the HRSG model created for this project to produce 9 bar steam. The high pressure steam feeds a backpressure steam turbine from the library to generate additional electric power. 2 bar steam leaves the turbine to supply an 8 effect MEE to generate water for a community. As part of the effort, three research papers were submitted (two published in ANS Proceedings and one submitted to Applied Energy).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Acoustic Codes in 2D Spherical Coordinate

Finite-difference methods are widely used to simulate infrasound propagation in the atmosphere. Flexibility of finite-difference scheme allows implementation of highly heterogeneous media for sound propagation as well as complex source models for sound generation. While full 3-D finite-difference methods have been utilized for local infrasound propagation with pronounced topography, 2-D modeling approach has been preferred for regional and global propagation as full 3-D methods generally require enormous computational resources. Infrasound propagation is often simulated with a second-order finite difference scheme. This lowest-order finite-difference scheme is robust and straightforward to implement complex boundary conditions, but the solution includes large error with numerical dispersion and dissipation. This large numerical error may make the second-order finite-difference not optimal for long range infrasound propagation modeling as the numerical dispersion degrades the accuracy of the solution unacceptably. Here, we developed a high-order finite-difference solver for long-range infrasound simulation. The high-order scheme is particularly popular for linear wave modeling in aeroacoustics owing to its low-dispersive and low-dissipative behavior. We develop and evaluate a high-order finite difference scheme in 2-D axisymmetric coordinates. The axisymmetry allows to approximate 3-D spherical sound propagation and amplitude attenuation by a 2-D method. AC2Dr is developed to simulate infrasound propagation in realistic atmosphere, but can be used for linear acoustic waves in general materials with background flow. AC2Dr in an axisymmetric coordinates allows for spherical radiation of acoustic waves from compact sources.

Sjogreen, Bjorn↗