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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Visualization and Decision Making Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty is an important aspect to data understanding. Without awareness of the variability, error, or reliability of a dataset, the ability to make decisions on that data is limited. However, practices around uncertainty visualization remain domain-specific, rooted in convention, and in many instances, absent entirely. Part of the reason for this may be a lack of established guidelines for navigating difficult choices of when uncertainty should be added, how to visualize uncertainty, and how to evaluate its effectiveness. Unsurprisingly, the inclusion of uncertainty into visualizations is a major challenge to visualization. As work concerned with uncertainty visualization grows, it has become clear that simple visual additions of uncertainty information to traditional visualization methods do not appropriately convey the meaning of the uncertainty, pose many perceptual challenges, and, in the worst case, can lead a viewer to a completely wrong understanding of the data. These challenges are the driving motivator for this special issue.

data models↗

Drought and Extreme Heat Impacts to Data Centers in Northern California

Commonly, data centers are designed and operated on the assumption of stationarity of the climate. Historical weather data informs the basis of their design and operations. However, as a result of climate change, this assumption is not valid and poses a great risk for data centers. In the coming decades, Northern California’s drought and extreme heat risk is projected to increase significantly. This report provides a drought and extreme heat impacts assessment of data centers in this region. Expert solicitation of data center experts enabled a tailored approach to this report. We identify the climate variables and analytics relevant for assessing data center-specific impacts from extreme heat and drought and demonstrate how to access and understand future climate projections from climate models. We emphasize the importance of including future climate projections into data center design and planning. This report is an important first step towards building an effective extreme heat and drought adaptation strategy for data centers in Northern California. While our geographical focus in this report is Northern California, many findings in this report are broadly applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Preliminary analysis of 15 GHz scintillations on an ATS-5 satellite-to-ground path

Although the ATS 5 satellite failed to de-spin, a rather intricate analysis procedure allows the extraction of scintillation information at spectral rates from 20 to 60 Hz, as well as below 0.5 Hz. The procedure has been applied to 15.3 GHz signals. Distributions and spectra were obtained for a limited amount of data, representing a variety of meteorological conditions. A definite correlation of scintillation strength and variability with rainfall is apparent. The data analysis is continuing.

Levis, C. A.↗

Evaluation of SLAR and thematic mapper MSS data for forest cover mapping using computer-aided analysis techniques

The spatial characteristics of the data were evaluated. A program was developed to reduce the spatial distortions resulting from variable viewing distance, and geometrically adjusted data sets were generated. The potential need for some level of radiometric adjustment was evidenced by an along track band of high reflectance across different cover types in the Varian imagery. A multiple regression analysis was employed to explore the viewing angle effect on measured reflectance. Areas in the data set which appeared to have no across track stratification of cover type were identified. A program was developed which computed the average reflectance by column for each channel, over all of the scan lines in the designated areas. A regression analysis was then run using the first, second, and third degree polynomials, for each channel. An atmospheric effect as a component of the viewing angle source of variance is discussed. Cover type maps were completed and training and test field selection was initiated.

Hoffer, R. M.↗

The effect of wind variability on Space Shuttle flight

A data base of paired detailed wind profiles is developed for use in evaluating the STS ascent capability. The flight of the Shuttle is simulated through a sequence of measured detailed wind profiles and the wind effects on load and performance are evaluated. Since the wind measurement and simulation time requirements dictate that the launch decision be based on wind measurements taken about 3.5 hr before launch, a data base of paired detailed profiles is obtained in order to account for possible load increases due to wind profile changes during the final 3.5 hr before launch. Results show that the largest wind changes occur in winter at about 12 km altitude. At that time and altitude, it is found that there is a 5 percent risk that the wind component speed change will approximate 10 m/s in 3.5 hr. It is determined that the wind can vary over a period of 3.5 hr by more than 20 percent from the transition season to the winter season while somewhat smaller changes occur between the transition season and the summer season. It is concluded that these results demonstrate the feasibility of the wind change model concept and that this model should be considered for future use in Shuttle prelaunch operations.

Hill, C. K.↗

Mars: Seasonally variable radar reflectivity

The 1971/1973 Mars data set acquired by the Goldstone Solar System Radar was analyzed. It was established that the seasonal variations in radar reflectivity thought to occur in only one locality on the planet (the Solis Lacus radar anomaly) occur, in fact, over the entire subequatorial belt observed by the Goldstone radar. Since liquid water appears to be the most likely cause of the reflectivity excursions, a permanent, year-round presence of subsurface water (frozen or thawed) in the Martian tropics can be inferred.

Roth, L. E.↗

Studies of ice sheet hydrology using SAR

Analysis of SAR data of the Greenland ice sheet in summer and winter suggest the use of SAR to monitor the temporal hydrology of ice sheets. Comparisons of each SAR data set with summer Landsat TM imagery show an areal-positive correlation with summer SAR data and a negative correlation with winter SAR data. It is proposed that the summer SAR data are most sensitive to the variable concentrations of free water in the surface snow and that the winter SAR data indicate variations in snow grain size.

Bindschadler, R. A.↗

The interoutburst behavior of cataclysmic variables

Existing IUE and AAVSO archive data were used to accomplish a large scale study of what happens to the UV flux of accretion disk systems during the quiescent intervals between outbursts, and how it relates to the preceding outburst characteristics of amplitude and width. The data sample involved multiple IUE observations for 16 dwarf novae and 8 novae along with existing optical coverage. Results indicate that most systems show correlated UV flux behavior with interoutburst phase, with 60 percent of the dwarf novae and 50 percent of the novae having decreasing flux trends while 33 percent of the dwarf novae and 38 percent of the novae show rising UV flux during the quiescent interval. All of the dwarf novae with decreasing UV fluxes at 1475 A have orbital periods longer than 4.4 hours, while all (except BV Cen) with flat or rising fluxes at 1475 A have orbital periods less than two hours. From a small sample (7) that have relatively large quiescent V magnitude changes between the IUE observations, most show a strong correlation between the UV and optical continuum. Interpretation of the results is complicated by not being able to determine how much the white dwarf contributes to the ultraviolet flux. However, it is now evident that noticeable changes are occurring in the hot zones in accreting systems long after the outburst, and not only for systems that are dominated by the white dwarf.

Szkody, Paula↗

Earth's variable rotation

Recent improvements in geodetic data and practical meteorology have advanced research on fluctuations in the earth's rotation. The interpretation of these fluctuations is inextricably linked with studies of the dynamics of the earth-moon system and dynamical processes in the liquid metallic core of the earth (where the geomagnetic field originates), other parts of the earth's interior, and the hydrosphere and atmosphere. Fluctuations in the length of the day occurring on decadal time scales have implications for the topographay of the core-mantle boundary and the electrical, magnetic, ande other properties of the core and lower mantle. Investigations of more rapid fluctuations bear on meteorological studies of interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variations in the general circulation of the atmosphere and the response of the oceans to such variations.

Hide, Raymond↗

Simulation of stratospheric N2O in the NCAR CCM2: Comparison with CLAES data and global budget analyses

Global variability and budgets of stratospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) are studied using output from a stratospheric version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate Model (CCM2). The model extends over 0-80 km, incorporating an N2O-like tracer with tropospheric source and upper-stratospheric photochemical sink, the latter parameterized using linear damping rates obtained from detailed two-dimensional model calculations. Results from the model over several seasonal cycles are compared with observations of N2O from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The model produces N2O structure and variability that is in reasonable agreement with the observations. Global budgets of stratospheric N2O are furthermore analyzed using model output, based on the transformed Eulerian-mean, zonal-mean framework. These budgets are used to quantify the importance of planetary wave constituent transport in the stratosphere, for both slow seasonal variations and fast planetary wave events. These results demonstrate that such wave fluxes act to form and sharpen the strong subtropical N2O gradients observed in satellite measurements.

Randel, William J.↗

Using the Diurnal Variability in GeoNEX TOA Reflectances for Earth Monitoring

Observations from the third-generation geostationary satellite instruments (GOES 16/17 ABI, Himawari 8/9 AHI, and etc.) have spatial resolution and spectral band configurations comparable to flagship LEO sensors (e.g., MODIS/VIIRS). More importantly, these data are acquired at very high temporal resolution, faithfully recording the variations of the full disk of Earth at every 5-10 minutes. They thus provide unique information about Earth’s atmosphere and surface. In order to explore the unique information content of geostationary data, this study systematically analyzes the diurnal variability in the GeoNEX L1G TOA reflectance products and compares them to simulated results by state-of-the-art radiative transfer codes. Our results show that • The smoothness of the TOA reflectance diurnal cycle provides a convenient and reliable way to identify stable atmospheric conditions and filter out passing clouds/shadows. • The diurnal variability of the blue band (0.47µm) reflectance is regulated mainly by atmospheric optical conditions over a majority of land cover types. As such, the diurnal variability of the blue band data allows us to retrieve AOD without invoking the use of spectral band ratios (SRC) as in previous algorithms. • In comparison, the diurnal variability of the short-wave infrared band (2.2µm) BRFs is mainly regulated by surface reflectance and the sun-target-satellite geometry. This information allows us to test and, if suitable, retrieve surface BRDF parameters. • Spectral band ratios, especially those between the 2.2µm and 0.47µm bands, are not constant but vary by locations and sun-target-satellite geometries. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that the information provided in high-frequent geostationary observations is unique and complementary to LEO sensors. Therefore, a synergy of GEO and LEO (and other) sensors has the great potential to improve existing remote sensing models and algorithms for better Earth monitoring.

Diurnal Variability↗

1978-1988 Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Variability Trends

Total solar irradiance (TSI), normalized to the mean earth-sun distance, is analyzed to assess long-term solar variability which may affect climate. TSI data sets are reviewed primarily from the 1984-1999 Earth Radiation Budgets Satellite (ERBS), 1978-1993 Nimbus7, 1980-1989 Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), 19911998 Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS), and 1996-1998 Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) Spacecraft missions. The data sets indicate that 1365 W/sq m [Watts per meter square] is the most likely TSI amplitude at minimum solar magnetic activity as indicated by minimum sunspot numbers. The TSI long-term variability component was found to vary with a period of approximately 10 years and with an amplitude of 2 W/sq m. An empirical TSI fit model, based upon 10.7-cm solar radio fluxes and prompt photometric sunspot indices, was used to characterize TSI variability. Comparisons among TSI measurements and empirical fit trends are reviewed as well as inconsistencies among current spacecraft TSI data set trends. The 1996-1998, SOHO/VIRGO measurement indicate stronger TSI increasing trends than those suggested by the corresponding ERBS and UARS measurement and by the empirical model fit. 1978-1999 TSI data sets are analyzed to identify the probable existence of another long-term TSI variability component.

Lee, Robert B., III↗

Partial and Interaction Spline Models for the Semiparametric Estimation of Functions of Several Variables

A partial spline model is a model for a response as a function of several variables, which is the sum of a smooth function of several variables and a parametric function of the same plus possibly some other variables. Partial spline models in one and several variables, with direct and indirect data, with Gaussian errors and as an extension of GLIM to partially penalized GLIM models are described. Application to the modeling of change of regime in several variables is described. Interaction splines are introduced and described and their potential use for modeling non-linear interactions between variables by semiparametric methods is noted. Reference is made to recent work in efficient computational methods.

Wahba, Grace↗

Uncertainty Analysis for a Jet Flap Airfoil

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was performed to quantify the potential uncertainties of lift and pitching moment coefficient calculations from a computational fluid dynamics code, relative to an experiment, for a jet flap airfoil configuration. Uncertainties due to a number of factors including grid density, angle of attack and jet flap blowing coefficient were examined. The ANOVA software produced a numerical model of the input coefficient data, as functions of the selected factors, to a user-specified order (linear, 2-factor interference, quadratic, or cubic). Residuals between the model and actual data were also produced at each of the input conditions, and uncertainty confidence intervals (in the form of Least Significant Differences or LSD) for experimental, computational, and combined experimental / computational data sets were computed. The LSD bars indicate the smallest resolvable differences in the functional values (lift or pitching moment coefficient) attributable solely to changes in independent variable, given just the input data points from selected data sets. The software also provided a collection of diagnostics which evaluate the suitability of the input data set for use within the ANOVA process, and which examine the behavior of the resultant data, possibly suggesting transformations which should be applied to the data to reduce the LSD. The results illustrate some of the key features of, and results from, the uncertainty analysis studies, including the use of both numerical (continuous) and categorical (discrete) factors, the effects of the number and range of the input data points, and the effects of the number of factors considered simultaneously.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

Assimilation of satellite microwave observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones

A novel Bayesian Monte Carlo integration (BMCI) technique was developed to retrieve geophysical variables from satellite microwave radiometer data in the presence of tropical cyclones. The BMCI technique includes three steps: generating a stochastic database, simulating satellite brightness temperatures using a radiative transfer model, and retrieving geophysical variables such as profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and cloud liquid and ice water content from real observations. The technique also provides uncertainty estimates for each retrieval and can output the error covariance matrix of selected parameters. The measurements from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on board Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) were used as input. A new technique was developed to correct the ATMS and GMI observations for the beam-filling effect, which is due to small-scale variability of precipitation and clouds when compared with the instrument footprint and also the nonlinear relation between the brightness temperature and precipitation. In addition, the assimilation of the BMCI retrievals into the NASA GEOS model is discussed for Hurricane Maria. The results show that assimilating the BMCI retrievals can influence the dynamical features of the cyclone, including a stronger warm core, a symmetric eye, and vertically aligned wind columns. Two possible factors that may limit the impact of the BMCI retrievals include 1) the resolution of the model (about 25 km), which was too coarse to show the potential of the BMCI data in improving the representation of tropical storms in the model forecast, and 2) the data assimilation system not being able to consider vertically correlated observation errors.

Isaac Moradi↗

Soil Environmental Conditions in the East River Watershed, CO

This dataset contains depth-resolved soil environmental variables collected between June 2016 and October 2018 from the Bradley Meadow site in the East River watershed. Datalogger output from 7 Campbell CS655 12 cm Soil Moisture and Temperature Sensors including depth, temperature, volumetric water content, and electrical conductivity are included in ‘BM_Merged_T_VWC_0616_10_18.csv’. Sensors were installed in June 2016. Data have been processed to merge raw sensor data and to remove additional variables. No additional QA/QC was performed. Measured pCO2 and depth are contained in ‘BM_EGM_WELL_CO2.csv’. These data represent gas well samples measured via injection using a PP Systems EGM-5 infra-red gas analyzer as described in the methods section. Measured CO2 surface flux values are contained in 'BM_EGM_Surface_Flux.csv'. These were measured using the PP Systems EGM-5 with the Soil Respiration Chamber attachment. Multiple reps are reported for each measurement including CO2 flux rate calculations using built-in linear and quadratic function methods, and average and standard deviations are taken across all reps and calculation methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laminar flow integration: Flight tests status and plans

Under the Aircraft Energy Efficiency - Laminar Flow Control Program, there are currently three flight test programs under way to address critical issues concerning laminar flow technology application to commercial transports. The Leading-Edge Flight Test (LEFT) with a JetStar aircraft is a cooperative effort with the Ames/Dryden Flight Research Facility to provide operational experience with candidate leading-edge systems representative of those that might be used on a future transport. In the Variable Sweep Transition Flight Experiment (VSTFE), also a cooperative effort between Langley and Ames/Dryden, basic transition data on an F-14 wing with variable sweep will be obtained to provide a data base for laminar flow wing design. Finally, under contract to the Boeing Company, the acoustic environment on the wing of a 757 aircraft will be measured and the influence of engine noise on laminar flow determined with a natural laminar flow glove on the wing. The status and plans for these programs are reported.

Wagner, R. D.↗