Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Data Extrapolation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,243 records · Page 69

Resolving Discrepancies in Spin-Torque Ferromagnetic Resonance Measurements: Lineshape versus Linewidth Analyses

When spin-orbit torques are measured using spin-torque ferromagnetic resonance, two alternative ways of analyzing the results to extract the torque efficiencies—lineshape analysis and analysis of the change in linewidth versus direct current—often give inconsistent results. We identify a source for these inconsistencies. We show that fits of spin-torque ferromagnetic resonance data to the standard analysis framework leave significant residuals that we identify as due to (i) current-induced excitations of a small volume of magnetic material with magnetic damping much larger than that of the bulk of the magnetic layer, which we speculate is associated with the heavy-metal–magnet interface and (ii) oscillations of the sample magnetization at the modulation frequency due to heating. Here, the dependence of the residual signals on direct current can interfere with an accurate extraction of spin-torque efficiencies by the linewidth method. We show that the discrepancies between the two types of analysis can be largely eliminated by extrapolation of the window of magnetic fields used in the linewidth fits to small values so as to minimize the influence of the residual signals.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗

Isospin dependence of the nuclear EMC effect from a global QCD analysis

We perform a new global QCD analysis of unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon from proton, deuteron, and A = 3 data, including recent measurements of He 3 / D and H 3 / D cross section ratios from the MARATHON experiment at Jefferson Lab. Simultaneously inferring the PDFs and nucleon off-shell corrections allows both to be determined consistently, without theoretical assumptions about the isospin dependence of nuclear effects. The analysis provides strong evidence for the need of nucleon off-shell corrections to describe the A = 3 data, with large isoscalar and a suggestion of nonzero isovector contributions in A ≤ 3 nuclei. We find that the extracted EMC ratios of nuclear to nucleon structure functions for A = 2 and 3 differ from those naively extrapolated from heavy nuclei down to low A .

Cocuzza, C. [William & Mary] (ORCID:00000003492292↗

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicted trapped particle radiation levels for Tiros-N

Vehicle encountered electron and proton fluxes were calculated for a set of nominal TIROS-N trajectories with new computational methods and new electron environment models. Temporal variations in the electron data were considered and partially accounted for. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for the lifetime of the satellite at selected integral energies from 10 to 100 MeV. Field strength calculations were performed with an extrapolated model on the basis of linear secular variation predictions. Orbital flux integration results are presented in graphical and tabular form.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

Astrophysical implications of the isotopic composition of cosmic rays

This paper considers some of the astrophysical consequences of recent cosmic-ray isotope measurements in the charge range between 4 and 26 for energies of 200 to 600 MeV/amu. Using a simple exponential path-length propagation model, the isotopic and chemical compositions are extrapolated observed back to the cosmic-ray source. With the possible exception of neon, all the results are consistent with the current understanding of cosmic-ray propagation and source composition. Some implications of the isotopic data as to the nature of the source are discussed.

Maehl, R.↗

Timebias corrections to predictions

The importance of an accurate knowledge of the time bias corrections to predicted orbits to a satellite laser ranging (SLR) observer, especially for low satellites, is highlighted. Sources of time bias values and the optimum strategy for extrapolation are discussed from the viewpoint of the observer wishing to maximize the chances of getting returns from the next pass. What is said may be seen as a commercial encouraging wider and speedier use of existing data centers for mutually beneficial exchange of time bias data.

Wood, Roger↗

Radio interferometer observations of solar wind turbulence from the orbit of Helios to the solar corona

We report observations of Very Long Baseline Interferometer (VLBI) phase scintillations due to turbulence in the solar wind. The observations were made at 5.00 and 8.42 GHz with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) on three dates in 1991 July and August. We observed the sources 0851 + 202 and 0735 + 178 at solar elongations ranging from 2.66 deg to 13.29 deg; the closest approach of the line of sight to the Sun ranged from 10 to 49.8 solar radii. We have also included previously unpublished 5 GHz VLBI phase scintillation measurements from 1989. These measurements probe solar wind density fluctuations on spatial scales from about 200 km to 2000 km. Our measurements are in quite good agreement with the Coles & Harmon model for the radio phase structure function, which was largely determined from observations on both shorter and larger spatial scales. Departures from the Coles & Harmon functions are attributable to day-to-day variations in the solar wind conditions. Phase scintillations at the greatest solar elongations are in very good agreement with extrapolated estimates from direct measurements made with the Helios spacecraft at slightly larger heliocentric distances. Thus there is a consistency between the in-situ spacecraft and radio sensing measurements of density turbulence. All of the VLBI data are consistent with a Kolmogorov spectrum for the density fluctuations, although at the closest elongations there may be excess power at small spatial scales. An advantage of interferometric techniques over other radio propagation measurements is that they provide a measure of the anisotropy of the irregularities. Our observations at closest approach (10 solar radii) show weak evidence for anisotropic, field-aligned density irregularities with an axial ratio of order 2. This degree of anisotropy would appear to be less than that measured at similar solar elongations but on smaller spatial scales by Armstrong and colleagues. Finally, a combination of the radio propagation data and in situ Helios measurements is used to determine the heliocentric distance dependence of the normalization coefficient of the density power spectrum, C(sup 2)(sub N). Modeling C(sup2)(sub N) varies as (R/solar radii)(sup -Kappa), we find Kappa = 3.72 +/- 0.30. Subject to a number of assumptions, this result is consistent with the conclusion of D. A. Roberts that turbulence within 0.28 astronomical units adheres to a WKB formula for turbulence amplitude as a function of heliocentric distance.

Spangler, Steven R.↗

Using Median Point in Keeling Plot to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Isotopic Composition of Evapotranspiration

Abstract The isotopic composition of evapotranspirationδ ET is a crucial parameter in isotope-based evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning and moisture recycling studies. The Keeling plot method is the most prevalent method to calculateδ ET , though it contains large extrapolated uncertainties from the least squares regression. Traditional Keeling regression uses the mean point of individual measurements. Here, a modified Keeling plot framework was proposed using the median point of individual measurements. We tested theδ ET uncertainty using the mean point [σ ET (mean)] and median point [σ ET (median)]. Multiple resolutions of input and output data from six independent sites were used to test the performance of the two methods. Theσ ET (mean) would be greater thanσ ET (median) when the mean value of inverse vapor concentration () is greater than the median value of inverse vapor concentration []. When applying the filter ofr 2 > 0.8, around 70% ofσ ET (mean) was greater thanσ ET (median). This phenomenon might be due to the normality of the vapor concentrationC υ producing the asymmetric distribution of 1/C υ . The median method could perform significantly better than the mean method when inputting high-resolution measurements (e.g., 1 Hz) and when the water vapor concentrationC υ is relatively low. Compared to the mean method, applying the median method could on average reduce 6.88% of ET partitioning uncertainties and could on average reduce 9.00% of moisture recycling uncertainties. This study provided a new insight of the Keeling plot method and emphasized handling model output uncertainty from multiple perspectives instead of only from input parameters.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Transfer learning of memory kernels for transferable coarse-graining of polymer dynamics

The present work concerns the transferability of coarse-grained (CG) modeling in reproducing the dynamic properties of the reference atomistic systems across a range of parameters. In particular, we focus on implicit-solvent CG modeling of polymer solutions. The CG model is based on the generalized Langevin equation, where the memory kernel plays the critical role in determining the dynamics in all time scales. Thus, we propose methods for transfer learning of memory kernels. The key ingredient of our methods is Gaussian process regression. By integration with the model order reduction via proper orthogonal decomposition and the active learning technique, the transfer learning can be practically efficient and requires minimum training data. Through two example polymer solution systems, we demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed transfer learning methods in the construction of transferable memory kernels. The transferability allows for out-of-sample predictions, even in the extrapolated domain of parameters. Built on the transferable memory kernels, the CG models can reproduce the dynamic properties of polymers in all time scales at different thermodynamic conditions (such as temperature and solvent viscosity) and for different systems with varying concentrations and lengths of polymers.

Ma, Zhan↗

SAS-2 observations of the diffuse gamma radiation in the galactic latitude interval 10 deg absolute b or equal to 90 deg

An analysis of all of the second small astronomy satellite gamma-ray data for galactic latitudes with the absolute value of b 10 deg has shown that the intensity varies with galactic latitude, being larger near 10 deg than 90 deg. For energies above 100 MeV the gamma-ray data are consistent with a latitude distribution of the form I(b) = C sub 1 + C sub 2/sin b, with the second term being dominant. This result suggests that the radiation above 100 MeV is coming largely from local regions of the galactic disk. Between 35 and 100 MeV, a similar equation is also a good representation of the data, but here the two terms are comparable. These results indicate that the diffuse radiation above 35 MeV consists of two parts, one with a relatively hard galactic component and the other an isotropic, steep spectral component which extrapolates back well to the low energy diffuse radiation. The steepness of the diffuse isotropic component places significant constraints on possible theoretical models of this radiation.

Fichtel, C. E.↗

SAS-2 observations of the diffuse gamma radiation in the galactic latitude interval from 10 to 90 deg in both hemispheres

An analysis of all the second Small Astronomy Satellite (SAS-2) gamma-ray data for galactic latitudes higher than 10 deg in both hemispheres has shown that the intensity varies with galactic latitude, being larger near 10 deg than 90 deg. For energies above 100 MeV the gamma-ray data are consistent with a latitude distribution of the form I(b) = C1 + C2/sin b, with the second term being dominant. This result suggests that the radiation above 100 MeV is coming largely from local regions of the galactic disk. Between 35 and 100 MeV, a similar equation is also a good representation of the data, but here the two terms are comparable. These results indicate that the diffuse radiation above 35 MeV consists of two parts, one with a relatively hard galactic component and the other an isotropic steep spectral component which extrapolates back well to the low-energy (less than 10 MeV) diffuse radiation. The steepness of the diffuse isotropic component places significant constraints on possible theoretical models of this radiation.

Fichtel, C. E.↗

Statistical summaries of fatigue data for design purposes

Two methods are discussed for constructing a design curve on the safe side of fatigue data. Both the tolerance interval and equivalent prediction interval (EPI) concepts provide such a curve while accounting for both the distribution of the estimators in small samples and the data scatter. The EPI is also useful as a mechanism for providing necessary statistics on S-N data for a full reliability analysis which includes uncertainty in all fatigue design factors. Examples of statistical analyses of the general strain life relationship are presented. The tolerance limit and EPI techniques for defining a design curve are demonstrated. Examples usng WASPALOY B and RQC-100 data demonstrate that a reliability model could be constructed by considering the fatigue strength and fatigue ductility coefficients as two independent random variables. A technique given for establishing the fatigue strength for high cycle lives relies on an extrapolation technique and also accounts for "runners." A reliability model or design value can be specified.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

Potential SPOT-1 R/B-Cosmos 1680 R/B collision

Detailed NORAD data have revealed updated orbital elements for the Ariane third-stage rocket body that underwent breakup on November 13, 1986, as well as for the Cosmos 1680 rocket body. Applying the maximum expected error due to the extrapolation of orbital elements to the date of the possible collision between the two bodies shows the smallest possible distance between bodies to have been 380 km, thereby precluding collision.

Henize, Karl G.↗

A Rational Approach to Determine Minimum Strength Thresholds in Novel Structural Materials

Design of safe and survivable structures requires the availability of guaranteed minimum strength thresholds for structural materials to enable a meaningful comparison of strength requirement and available strength. This paper develops a procedure for determining such a threshold with a desired degree of confidence, for structural materials with none or minimal industrial experience. The problem arose in attempting to use a new, highly weight-efficient structural load tendon material to achieve a lightweight super-pressure balloon. The developed procedure applies to lineal (one dimensional) structural elements. One important aspect of the formulation is that it extrapolates to expected probability distributions for long length specimen samples from some hypothesized probability distribution that has been obtained from a shorter length specimen sample. The use of the developed procedure is illustrated using both real and simulated data.

Schur, Willi W.↗

A Sub-filter Scale Noise Equation far Hybrid LES Simulations

Hybrid LES/subscale modeling approaches have an important advantage over the current noise prediction methods in that they only involve modeling of the relatively universal subscale motion and not the configuration dependent larger scale turbulence . Previous hybrid approaches use approximate statistical techniques or extrapolation methods to obtain the requisite information about the sub-filter scale motion. An alternative approach would be to adopt the modeling techniques used in the current noise prediction methods and determine the unknown stresses from experimental data. The present paper derives an equation for predicting the sub scale sound from information that can be obtained with currently available experimental procedures. The resulting prediction method would then be intermediate between the current noise prediction codes and previously proposed hybrid techniques.

Goldstein, Marvin E.↗

Ca-Rich Carbonate Melts: A Regular-Solution Model, with Applications to Carbonatite Magma + Vapor Equilibria and Carbonate Lavas on Venus

A thermochemical model of the activities of species in carbonate-rich melts would be useful in quantifying chemical equilibria between carbonatite magmas and vapors and in extrapolating liquidus equilibria to unexplored PTX. A regular-solution model of Ca-rich carbonate melts is developed here, using the fact that they are ionic liquids, and can be treated (to a first approximation) as interpenetrating regular solutions of cations and of anions. Thermochemical data on systems of alkali metal cations with carbonate and other anions are drawn from the literature; data on systems with alkaline earth (and other) cations and carbonate (and other) anions are derived here from liquidus phase equilibria. The model is validated in that all available data (at 1 kbar) are consistent with single values for the melting temperature and heat of fusion for calcite, and all liquidi are consistent with the liquids acting as regular solutions. At 1 kbar, the metastable congruent melting temperature of calcite (CaCO3) is inferred to be 1596 K, with (Delta)bar-H(sub fus)(calcite) = 31.5 +/- 1 kJ/mol. Regular solution interaction parameters (W) for Ca(2+) and alkali metal cations are in the range -3 to -12 kJ/sq mol; W for Ca(2+)-Ba(2+) is approximately -11 kJ/sq mol; W for Ca(2+)-Mg(2+) is approximately -40 kJ/sq mol, and W for Ca(2+)-La(3+) is approximately +85 kJ/sq mol. Solutions of carbonate and most anions (including OH(-), F(-), and SO4(2-)) are nearly ideal, with W between 0(ideal) and -2.5 kJ/sq mol. The interaction of carbonate and phosphate ions is strongly nonideal, which is consistent with the suggestion of carbonate-phosphate liquid immiscibility. Interaction of carbonate and sulfide ions is also nonideal and suggestive of carbonate-sulfide liquid immiscibility. Solution of H2O, for all but the most H2O-rich compositions, can be modeled as a disproportionation to hydronium (H3O(+)) and hydroxyl (OH(-)) ions with W for Ca(2+)-H3O(+) (approximately) equals 33 kJ/sq mol. The regular-solution model of carbonate melts can be applied to problems of carbonatite magma + vapor equilibria and of extrapolating liquidus equilibria to unstudied systems. Calculations on one carbonatite (the Husereau dike, Oka complex, Quebec, Canada) show that the anion solution of its magma contained an OH mole fraction of (approximately) 0.07, although the vapor in equilibrium with the magma had P(H2O) = 8.5 x P(CO2). F in carbonatite systems is calculated to be strongly partitioned into the magma (as F(-)) relative to coexisting vapor. In the Husereau carbonatite magma, the anion solution contained an F(-) mole fraction of (approximately) 6 x 10(exp -5).

Treiman, Allan H.↗

Mechanistic Modeling of Creep and Aging for Time Extrapolation in LPBF 316 SS - LANL

A polycrystal constitutive model was extended to quantify the effects heterogeneity in the microstructure, porosity, and internal stresses on the mechanical response (creep, tensile) of 316H steel processed by additive manufacturing. The starting point is a recently developed and fully calibrated advanced microstructuresensitive mechanistic constitutive model fit to literature data pertaining to conventionally processed steels. The model is embedded within the full field fast Fourier transform framework (LApx) and several hundred simulations were performed. Synthetic microstructures with different grain aspect ratios were generated using the Neper package to study the role of grain morphology on the mechanical responses. The effect of initial cell interior dislocation density, cell-wall density, precipitate content, porosity, and internal stresses on creep rates are quantified for different polycrystalline microstructures. The study allowed to prospectively quantify the role of distinct features of the microstructure on the mechanical response under tension and creep loading scenarios. Critically it is found that minor anisotropies in the tensile response of samples, emanating from the aspect ratio of grains correlated into significant differences in creep rate as a function of loading directions. The study also allows to identify initial microstructure porosities below which the materials response only moderately degraded by the initial microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗