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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study: Insights on System Stress: Preprint

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) explores the operational impacts of the wide spread adoption of wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) resources in North America's Eastern and Quebec Interconnections. We explore the impact of large scale adoption of wind and solar generation on the unit commitment and economic dispatch of the largest coordinated power system in the world by simulating hourly and five-minute operations. Using NREL's high-performance computing capabilities and new methodologies to model operations, we found that the modeled system, as simulated with evolutionary change in 2026, could balance the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar PV at a five-minute level under a variety of conditions. Our simulations achieve instantaneous penetrations that exceed 50% of load while meeting an annual penetration of 30% on an energy basis. The system meets balanced load and supply in all intervals, with modest curtailment, using technologies and practices that are widely available today. However, a variety of the conditions present in these simulations deviate substantially from historical practice. In this work, we analyze potentially stressful system conditions that occur in the simulations and identify opportunities for innovation, regulatory reform, and changes in operating practices that require further analysis to enable the transition to a system with more wind and solar PV.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread electric vehicle deployment with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those earlier works by leveraging detailed simulation models for electric vehicle adoption, electric vehicle use, electric vehicle charging, and bulk power system operations; and linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This study closely analyzes electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) performance along the dimensions of flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and participation rate, under the assumptions of ubiquitous chargers and all trips completed on time. The study is located in a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, and in an envisioned 2038 New England power system for which within-region generation is 84% clean.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Aquifer recharge, depletion, and connectivity: Inferences from GRACE, land surface models, and geochemical and geophysical data

We used data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and outputs of the CLM4.5 model to estimate recharge and depletion rates for large aquifers, investigate the connectivity of an aquifer's subbasins, and identify barriers and preferred pathways for groundwater flow within an aquifer system. The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System and its subbasins (Dakhla, Northern Sudan Platform, and Kufra) in northeast Africa were used for demonstration purposes, and findings were tested and verified against geological, geophysical, remote sensing, geochronologic, and geochemical data. There are four major findings. (1) The average annual precipitation data over recharge areas in the southern Kufra section and the Northern Sudan Platform subbasin were estimated at 54.8 km 3 , and 32.8 km 3 , respectively, and knowing the annual extraction rates over these two areas (similar to 0.40 ± 0.20 km 3 ), recharge rates were estimated at 0.78 ± 0.49 km 3 /yr and 1.44 ± 0.42 km 3 /yr, respectively. (2) GRACEderived groundwater depletion rates over the Dakhla subbasin and the Northern Kufra section were estimated at 4.44 ± 0.42 km 3 /yr and 0.48 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr, respectively. (3) The observed depletion in the southern parts of the Dakhla subbasin is apparently caused by the presence of the east- west- trending Uweinat-Aswan basement uplift, which impedes the south-to-north groundwater flow and hence reduces replenishment from recharge areas in the south. (4) A major northeast- southwest- trending shear zone (Pelusium shear system) is apparently providing a preferred groundwater flow pathway from the Kufra to the Dakhla subbasin. Thus, inte-grated approach provides a replicable and cost-effective model for better understanding of the hydrogeologic setting of large aquifers worldwide and for optimum management of these groundwater resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Land-Based Wind Plant Balance-of-System Cost Drivers and Sensitivities (Poster)

With Balance of System (BOS) costs contributing up to 30% of the installed capital cost, it is fundamental to understand the BOS costs for wind projects as well as potential cost trends for larger turbines. NREL developed a BOS model using project cost estimates developed by industry partners. Aspects of BOS covered include engineering and permitting, foundations for various wind turbines, transportation, civil work, and electrical arrays. The data introduce new scaling relationships for each BOS component to estimate cost as a function of turbine parameters and size, project parameters and size, and geographic characteristics. Based on the new BOS model, an analysis to understand the non‐turbine wind plant costs associated with turbine sizes ranging from 1-6 MW and wind plant sizes ranging from 100-1000 MW has been conducted. This analysis establishes a more robust baseline cost estimate, identifies the largest cost components of wind project BOS, and explores the sensitivity of the capital investment cost and the levelized cost of energy to permutations in each BOS cost element. This presentation shows results from the model that illustrate the potential impact of turbine size and project size on the cost of energy from US wind plants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Potential Cost Reduction in New Nuclear Deployments Based on Recent AP1000 Experience

The completion of Vogtle Units 3 and 4, despite significant cost and schedule overruns, a major bankruptcy, and a pandemic, demonstrates that the U.S. nuclear industry can still develop new supply chains, train a highly skilled workforce, and build large nuclear power plants. Vogtle, being a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant, faced overruns, but FOAK overruns can decrease with more deployments through a combination of design standardization and modularization, transferring and implementing lessons learned between consecutive projects, and innovation. This report quantifies the potential cost and schedule reductions in future AP1000 plants in the US and identifies the barriers in achieving those reductions. It starts with a summary and analysis of the cost and construction timeline data for AP1000 plants that started construction in the United States (Vogtle) and China. Motivated by the steep schedule reductions from the first to second series of AP1000 plants in China, a cost reduction model was developed to quantify potential reductions for future AP1000 builds in the US. Results show that within about 3 more builds, AP1000s can become economically attractive in large markets in the U.S., without leveraging the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or Production Tax Credit (PTC), and much sooner if these tax credits are available. Importantly the financial risks for future AP1000 builds in the US might be much smaller than observed in the FOAK plants. The study also identifies various barriers for future builds including the availability of a supply chain and a skilled workforce, and emphasizes the importance of making investments to gather and implement lessons learned between consecutive projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hydropower Operations in the Colorado River Basin: Institutional Analysis of Opportunities and Constraints

The Colorado River Basin is facing an unprecedented drought. In ongoing drought management efforts, limited attention has been paid to hydropower generation. While some studies do exist on hydropower, they are quantitative in nature and focus on calculating the reduction in megawatts generated at dams in the Basin with declining water availability. These studies simplify the complex process of hydropower generation; water availability is but one factor that impacts hydropower generation. At a more fundamental level, formal institutional arrangements, that is, laws, policies, and rules create the framework within which dams are operated and hydropower is generated. This paper conducts a comparative institutional analysis of water, environment, and energy laws and policies and changes therein to understand the constraints and opportunities faced by hydropower generation in the Colorado River Basin. To tease out the nuances in how institutional arrangements affect dam operations and hydropower generation, the comparative analysis focuses on the two largest and strategically important dams in the Basin: Hoover and Glen Canyon. This paper uses Elinor Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development Framework to analyze laws and policies at three levels: constitutional-choice, collective-choice, and operational levels. Constitutional-choice level laws and policies apply to the entire Basin, whereas collective-choice level and operational level laws and policies are dam specific. Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams face similar biophysical challenges by the virtue of their location in the same river basin. Yet, despite the similarity in the biophysical setting, the analysis in this study finds that the differences in the applicability of constitutional-choice level laws along with the differences in dam specific collective-choice and operational level institutional arrangements produce a distinct set of constraints for hydropower generation at Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams. Even without a drought, water and environmental laws at both the constitutionalchoice and collective-choice levels as well as power contracts constrain hydropower generation and limit the flexibility with which Glen Canyon Dam can be operated. Water and environmental laws also impose specific water release requirements that, at times, require off-peak power generation at Glen Canyon Dam. On the other hand, even with a drought, Hoover Dam faces limited hydropower generation constraints and can operate flexibly. This is because constitutional-choice level laws and dam-specific collective-choice and operational level laws pose limited constraints for flexible daily operations at Hoover. The result is that Hoover Dam can generate hydropower at the same level as it did three decades ago and operate flexibly to provide ancillary services and peaking generation. While water and environmental laws and policies pose constraints for hydropower generation, the analysis in this study further finds that specific historic provisions within energyrelated institutional arrangements and recent changes within power contracts have maintained and even enhanced the value of hydropower to power customers. Historic institutional provisions ensure that hydropower is sold ‘at cost’ making this resource economically competitive with wholesale electricity market rates. Recent power contract modifications have resulted in the amendment of an older resale prohibition clause to expand the flexibility available to power customers in using their capacity and/or energy allocation in RTOs, ISOs, and bulk power markets. This amendment has opened up an opportunity for customers, especially Hoover power customers, to use flexible generation and ancillary services in a market environment. In addition, the extension of power contract duration to the legally maximum term has enhanced the reliability and stability of this resource for customers. In the Colorado River Basin, despite the enduring economic responsibility of power customers—where laws require customers to pay for a large portion of construction and O&M costs whether or not they actually receive hydropower— the persistent threat of a drought-induced water shortage, and constraints imposed by water and environmental laws and policies, power customers continue to invest in this resource as energy-related institutional arrangements and power contract provisions protect the reasons why they value hydropower. Lastly, the analysis in this study finds that the consequences of changes in hydropower generation for energy users, irrigators, and environmental programs in the Basin depend on how specific institutional arrangements tie electricity revenues to irrigation aid and environmental programs, and how the power contracts themselves are set up. Collective-choice level institutional arrangements create a higher level of financial dependency of irrigation aid and environmental programs on electricity revenues in the Upper Basin—the legal subdivision of Colorado River where Glen Canyon Dam is located—compared to the Lower Basin—the legal subdivision of Colorado River where Hoover Dam is located. Therefore, changes in hydropower generation or the way its revenue is collected and used will have far reacting detrimental consequences for the Upper Basin. Likewise, differences in the nature of power contracts for Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams also creates differences in the financial impact incurred by energy users when there is a reduction in hydropower generation. While this study identifies the types of impacts on resource users as a result of specific institutional arrangements, the calculation of extent of impact warrants further attention. Hydropower in the United States is in a unique position today. The strategic importance of this resource for the nation’s electricity sector is rapidly growing even as its contribution to overall electricity generation remains fairly small. This strategic importance, however, is built hydropower’s ability to operate flexibly in order to support the integration of intermittent renewable generating sources and the expansion of electricity markets. As this study shows, such flexibility may not be available at certain plants not due to the lack of water availability but because of institutional constraints. Institutional arrangements may also require dam operators to first consider high priority water uses (such as irrigation or environmental needs), which in turn may limit the ability to generate hydropower when it is most valuable or useful. Engineering and quantitative models, such as production cost models, recognize policy constraints for hydropower operations but often inadequately capture or assume away such constraints in the models. A failure to account for policy constraints in these models runs the risk of inaccurate representation of the operational flexibility and capacity available at specific hydropower plants, which can result in over/underestimation of hydropower’s ability to support the integration of variable renewable resources and address grid reliability concerns. Against this background, this paper and the analysis herein serves as an example of how we can systematically identify institutional constraints (and opportunities) that influence the flexibility in not only generating electricity at specific dams but also using this hydropower once it is generated.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Thermostatic Radiator Valve Evaluation and Demonstration

A large stock of multifamily buildings in the Northeast and Midwest uses hot water or steam for space heating. Typically, residents do not pay for heat directly (i.e., heating fuel serves a central plant and use is not submetered). Losses from these systems are typically high, and a significant number of apartments are overheated much of the time. This is often evidenced by open windows on winter days. Controls and distribution are often faulty, and improving them can be more cost effective than replacing boilers. Thermostatic radiator valves (TRVs), which have been in use for many decades, are one potential strategy to combat this problem. They are commonly used in Europe and in other markets such as commercial buildings, but have not been widely accepted by the residential retrofit market in the northeastern United States. Anecdotal evidence suggests that heating systems engineers and contractors have a variety of opinions about their effectiveness, illustrating a lack of consensus on this potentially important energy efficiency measure. A review of the limited available literature revealed that, in one study, heating fuel savings as high as 15% was achieved through TRV retrofits. In this project, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Advanced Residential Integrated Energy Solutions, sought to better understand the current usage of TRVs by key market players in steam and hot water heating and to conduct limited experiments on the effectiveness of new and old TRVs as a means of controlling space temperatures and reducing heating fuel consumption. The project included a survey of industry professionals, a field experiment comparing old and new TRVs, and cost-benefit modeling analysis using BEopt (Building Energy Optimization software). Radiator and apartment space temperature data were collected and analyzed for two similar apartment units in a building that underwent a one-pipe steam TRV retrofit. Space temperature comparisons were made across the pre- and post-TRV installation heating periods and between rooms equipped with old or new TRVs in an attempt to show the comparative effectiveness of each vintage of TRV. Analyses of the heating fuel utility bills before and after the building-wide TRV installation were conducted to quantify potential savings. The results of the field experiment and utility bill analysis did not show energy savings at either the unit or the building-wide level. The results provided inconclusive answers to the original study questions but provided valuable insight into common steam system imbalance and resident behavior issues that are critical to address in conjunction with TRV retrofits. Specific issues identified included steam distribution imbalance, possible TRV sensor location issues, a persistent window-opening habit, and a failure to optimize the boiler control set points as part of the TRV retrofit. The lack of heating fuel savings underscored the need to include whole steam system commissioning alongside or as a prerequisite to TRVs. Failed air vents and uneven steam main venting are critical to address either in conjunction with or before a TRV installation. Monitoring existing space temperatures before a retrofit strategy is chosen would allow the consultant and building owner to better assess the potential benefits of a whole-building TRV retrofit, selective installation of TRVs in some units, or simply balancing the steam distribution venting. Further gaps in the understanding of underlying processes that allow TRVs to function effectively were also identified and are presented as opportunities for future research.

Array↗

Full Implementation of Matrix Approach to Biogeochemistry Module of CLM5

Abstract Earth system models (ESMs) have been rapidly developed in recent decades to advance our understanding of climate change‐carbon cycle feedback. However, those models are massive in coding, require expensive computational resources, and have difficulty in diagnosing their performance. It is highly desirable to develop ESMs with modularity and effective diagnostics. Toward these goals, we implemented a matrix approach to the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to represent carbon and nitrogen cycles. Specifically, we reorganized 18 balance equations each for carbon and nitrogen cycles among the 18 vegetation pools in the original CLM5 into two matrix equations. Similarly, 140 balance equations each for carbon and nitrogen cycles among the 140 soil pools were reorganized into two additional matrix equations. The vegetation carbon and nitrogen matrix equations are connected to soil matrix equations via litterfall. The matrix equations fully reproduce simulations of carbon and nitrogen dynamics by the original model. The computational cost for forwarding simulation of the CLM5 matrix model was 26% more expensive than the original model, largely due to calculation of additional diagnostic variables, but the spin‐up computational cost was significantly saved. We showed a case study on modeled soil carbon storage under two forcing data sets to illustrate the diagnostic capability that the matrix approach uniquely offers to understand simulation results of global carbon and nitrogen dynamics. The successful implementation of the matrix approach to CLM5, one of the most complex land models, demonstrates that most, if not all, the biogeochemical models can be reorganized into the matrix form to gain high modularity, effective diagnostics, and accelerated spin‐up.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of increasing tip velocity on wind turbine rotor design.

A reduction in cost of energy from wind is anticipated when maximum allowable tip velocity is allowed to increase. Rotor torque decreases as tip velocity increases and rotor size and power rating are held constant. Reduction in rotor torque yields a lighter weight gearbox, a decrease in the turbine cost, and an increase in the capacity for the turbine to deliver cost competitive electricity. The high speed rotor incurs costs attributable to rotor aero-acoustics and system loads. The increased loads of high speed rotors drive the sizing and cost of other components in the system. Rotor, drivetrain, and tower designs at 80 m/s maximum tip velocity and 100 m/s maximum tip velocity are created to quantify these effects. Component costs, annualized energy production, and cost of energy are computed for each design to quantify the change in overall cost of energy resulting from the increase in turbine tip velocity. High fidelity physics based models rather than cost and scaling models are used to perform the work. Results provide a quantitative assessment of anticipated costs and benefits for high speed rotors. Finally, important lessons regarding full system optimization of wind turbines are documented.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Building a genome engineering toolbox in nonmodel prokaryotic microbes

The realization of a sustainable bioeconomy requires our ability to understand and engineer complex design principles for the development of platform organisms capable of efficient conversion of cheap and sustainable feedstocks (e.g. sunlight, CO 2 , non-food biomass) to biofuels and bioproducts at sufficient titers and costs. For model microbes such as E. coli , advances in DNA reading and writing technologies are driving adoption of new paradigms for engineering biological systems. Unfortunately, microbes with properties of interest for the utilization of cheap and renewable feedstocks such as photosynthesis, autotrophic growth, and cellulose degradation have very few, if any, genetic tools for metabolic engineering. Therefore, it is important to begin to develop 'design rules' for building a genetic toolbox for novel microbes. Furthermore, we present an overview of our current understanding of these rules for the genetic manipulation of prokaryotic microbes and available genetic tools to expand our ability to genetically engineer non-model systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Probabilistic partition of unity networks for high–dimensional regression problems

We explore the probabilistic partition of unity network (PPOU-Net) model in the context of high-dimensional regression problems and propose a general framework focusing on adaptive dimensionality reduction. With the proposed framework, the target function is approximated by a mixture of experts model on a low-dimensional manifold, where each cluster is associated with a fixed-degree polynomial. We present a training strategy that leverages the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. During the training, we alternate between (i) applying gradient descent to update the DNN coefficients; and (ii) using closed-form formulae derived from the EM algorithm to update the mixture of experts model parameters. Under the probabilistic formulation, step (ii) admits the form of embarrassingly paralleliazable weighted least-squares solves. The PPOU-Nets consistently outperform the baseline fully-connected neural networks of comparable sizes in numerical experiments of various data dimensions. Here, we also explore the proposed model in applications of quantum computing, where the PPOU-Nets act as surrogate models for cost landscapes associated with variational quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating the economic viability of CdTe/CIS and CIGS/CIS tandem photovoltaic modules

In this paper, we analyze the potential cost competitiveness of two frameless, glass–glass thin-film tandem photovoltaic module structures, cadmium telluride (CdTe)/CuInSe 2 (CIS) and CuIn 0.3 Ga 0.7 Se 2 (CIGS)/CIS, based on the demonstrated cost of manufacturing the respective component cell technologies in high volume. To consider multiple economic scenarios, we base the CdTe/CIS module efficiency on the current industrial production of CdTe modules, while for CIGS/CIS, we use an aspirational estimate for CIGS efficiency. We focus on four-terminal mechanically stacked structures, thus avoiding the need to achieve current matching between the two cells. The top cell in such a tandem must have a transparent back contact, which has not been successfully implemented to date. However, for the purpose of understanding the economic viability of both tandems, we assume that this can be implemented at a cost similar to that of sputtered indium tin oxide. The cost of both tandem module structures was found to be nearly identical on an equal-area basis and approximately $30/m 2 higher than the single-junction alternatives. Both tandem modules are about 4% (absolute) more efficient than a module by using the top-cell material alone. We find that these tandem modules might reduce total system cost by as much as 11% in applications having a high area-related balance-of-system cost, such as area-constrained residential systems; however, the relative advantage of tandems decreases in the cases where balance-of-system costs are lower, such as in commercial and utility scale systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

MADE3D: Enabling the next generation of high-torque density wind generators by additive design and 3D printing

Direct-drive wind turbine generators are increasing in popularity, thanks to recent project developments—especially offshore, where reliability and efficiency are major cost drivers. Yet, high capital costs are forcing many original equipment manufacturers to consider lightweight, high-torque density generators for next-generation multi-megawatt turbines that may be difficult to realize by traditional design or manufacturing methods. In this study, we present a new design framework enabled by advanced machine learning and multimaterial additive manufacturing to perform a magnetic topology optimization that maximizes the torque per rotor active mass for a 15-megawatt direct-drive permanent magnet wind generator. A comparison of the proposed approach against conventional topology optimization demonstrated a significant increase in computational efficiency and accuracy in performance predictions. Results using single and multimaterial compositions for rotor core and magnets identify a wider choice of 3D printable designs for a given specification. A hybrid combination of sintered and dysprosium-free polymer-bonded magnets shows good potential for torque performance by saving material costs up to 8.75%. More than 30% improvement in rotor torque densities is identified which can marginally improve the overall generator torque density. With the rapid evolution of multipowder deposition technolgies, this study can greatly inspire a new paradigm for design-driven manufacturing with novel material compositions and lightweight, low-cost, high-strength multimaterial geometries that were previously unexplored for direct-drive generators.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Human serum activates CIDEB-mediated lipid droplet enlargement in hepatoma cells

Highlights: •Human serum induced differentiation of hepatoma cells increases cellular lipid droplet (LD) size. •The observed increase in LD size correlates with increased PGC-1α and CIDEB expression. •Induction of CIDEB expression correlates with rescue of VLDL secretion and loss of ADRP. •siRNA knockdown of CIDEB impairs the human serum mediated increase in LD size. •This system represents a cost-efficient model to study CIDEB’s role in lipid biology. -- Abstract: Human hepatocytes constitutively express the lipid droplet (LD) associated protein cell death-inducing DFFA-like effector B (CIDEB). CIDEB mediates LD fusion, as well as very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) maturation. However, there are limited cell culture models readily available to study CIDEB’s role in these biological processes, as hepatoma cell lines express negligible levels of CIDEB. Recent work has highlighted the ability of human serum to differentiate hepatoma cells. Herein, we demonstrate that culturing Huh7.5 cells in media supplemented with human serum activates CIDEB expression. This activation occurs through the induced expression of PGC-1α, a positive transcriptional regulator of CIDEB. Coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) microscopy revealed a correlation between CIDEB levels and LD size in human serum treated Huh7.5 cells. Human serum treatment also resulted in a rapid decrease in the levels of adipose differentiation-related protein (ADRP). Furthermore, individual overexpression of CIDEB was sufficient to down-regulate ADRP protein levels. siRNA knockdown of CIDEB revealed that the human serum mediated increase in LD size was CIDEB-dependent. Overall, our work highlights CIDEB’s role in LD fusion, and presents a new model system to study the PGC-1α/CIDEB pathway’s role in LD dynamics and the VLDL pathway.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗