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Characteristics and Origins of Frontal Convection During IMPACTS on 25 January 2020

This presentation will discuss the characteristics of frontal convection and its estimation from the ER-2 multifrequency nadir reflectivity and Doppler velocity from a warm-occlusion frontal system that traversed across the Northeast U.S. on 25 January 2020. This system that occurred during the IMPACTS field deployment, brought widespread clouds and precipitation to the Northeast. The system brought primarily rain in most areas of more intense rainfall associated with embedded convection near the frontal band and some freezing rain and/or snowfall in the northern regions or higher terrain due to the pre-existing low-level cold air. The NASA ER-2 instrumented with multifrequency radar and the NASA P-3 with in situ microphysics measurements both collected data from this system. The focus of this presentation is on the estimation of vertical velocity in convective and non-convective regions using the ER-2 nadir Doppler measurements. Vertical velocities are inherently difficult to estimate in frontal systems at mesoscale and below other than from direct in situ measurement because of their small magnitudes and errors in the measurements. Estimates from nadir Doppler measurements such as from the ER-2 are challenging because of both Doppler velocity uncertainties and the need to estimate particle fallspeed since the Doppler measurement is the vertical velocity plus the hydrometeor fallspeed. In the presentation, the vertical velocity estimation, its associated errors, and a possible mitigation scheme are described. The characteristics of the convective and stratiform regions on 25 January 2020 are discussed. The vertical velocity estimated from the nadir Doppler measurements are compared with P-3 in situ measurements. Estimation of vertical velocity is one of the goals for upcoming spaceborne missions such as EarthCare and ACCP.

Gerald M. Heymsfield↗

Short-range precipitation forecasts using assimilation of simulated satellite water vapor profiles and column cloud liquid water amounts

These observing system simulation experiments investigate the assimilation of satellite-observed water vapor and cloud liquid water data in the initialization of a limited-area primitive equations model with the goal of improving short-range precipitation forecasts. The assimilation procedure presented includes two aspects: specification of an initial cloud liquid water vertical distribution and diabatic initialization. The satellite data is simulated for the next generation of polar-orbiting satellite instruments, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the High-Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS), which are scheduled to be launched on the NOAA-K satellite in the mid-1990s. Based on cloud-top height and total column cloud liquid water amounts simulated for satellite data a diagnostic method is used to specify an initial cloud water vertical distribution and to modify the initial moisture distribution in cloudy areas. Using a diabatic initialization procedure, the associated latent heating profiles are directly assimilated into the numerical model. The initial heating is estimated by time averaging the latent heat release from convective and large-scale condensation during the early forecast stage after insertion of satellite-observed temperature, water vapor, and cloud water formation. The assimilation of satellite-observed moisture and cloud water, together withy three-mode diabatic initialization, significantly alleviates the model precipitation spinup problem, especially in the first 3 h of the forecast. Experimental forecasts indicate that the impact of satellite-observed temperature and water vapor profiles and cloud water alone in the initialization procedure shortens the spinup time for precipitation rates by 1-2 h and for regeneration of the areal coverage by 3 h. The diabatic initialization further reduces the precipitation spinup time (compared to adiabatic initialization) by 1 h.

Wu, Xiaohua↗

IUE observations of planetary nebulae and their central stars in the Magellanic Clouds

The planetary nebulae LMC P40, SMC N2, and SMC N5 and their central stars were observed with IUE. The C abundances in the nebulae, compared with those in galactic planetaries, indicate that convective dredgeup of locally nucleosynthesized C has occurred. The progenitors of the nebulae were C stars at the theoretical upper luminosity threshold, thus such stars do occur as predicted, although none so bright have been found in the Clouds. The central stars of the nebulae have masses approximately 1 solar mass, luminosities approximately 40,000 solar luminosity, and radii approximately 0.7 solar radius; they have probably not yet reached their maximum luminosities. With M(subv) 19.1-19.8, they may be the visually faintest stars yet observed by UV spectroscopy. Clearly, it is not true that planetary nebulae nuclei all have masses M = (0.6 + or - 0.1) solar mass.

Maran, S. P.↗

Spectral Retrieval of Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM PR Data: Comparison of Look-Up Tables

The primary goal of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is to use the information about distributions of precipitation to determine the four dimensional (i.e., temporal and spatial) patterns of latent heating over the whole tropical region. The Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm has been developed to estimate latent heating profiles for the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) with a cloud- resolving model (CRM). The method uses CRM- generated heating profile look-up tables for the three rain types; convective, shallow stratiform, and anvil rain (deep stratiform with a melting level). For convective and shallow stratiform regions, the look-up table refers to the precipitation top height (PTH). For anvil region, on the other hand, the look- up table refers to the precipitation rate at the melting level instead of PTH. For global applications, it is necessary to examine the universality of the look-up table. In this paper, we compare the look-up tables produced from the numerical simulations of cloud ensembles forced with the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Response Experiment (COARE) data and the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) data. There are some notable differences between the TOGA-COARE table and the GATE table, especially for the convective heating. First, there is larger number of deepest convective profiles in the TOGA-COARE table than in the GATE table, mainly due to the differences in SST. Second, shallow convective heating is stronger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. This might be attributable to the difference in the strength of the low-level inversions. Third, altitudes of convective heating maxima are larger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. Levels of convective heating maxima are located just below the melting level, because warm-rain processes are prevalent in tropical oceanic convective systems. Differences in levels of convective heating maxima probably reflect differences in melting layer heights. We are now extending our study to simulations of other field experiments (e.g. SCSMEX and ARM) in order to examine the universality of the look-up table. The impact of look-up tables on the retrieved latent heating profiles will also be assessed.

Shige, Shoichi↗

Influence of Transient Atmospheric Circulation on the Surface Heating of the Pacific Warm Pool

Analyses of data on clouds, winds, and surface heat fluxes show that the transient behavior of basin-wide large-scale circulation has a significant influence on the warm pool sea surface temperature (SST). Trade winds converge to regions of the highest SST in the equatorial western Pacific. These regions have the largest cloud cover and smallest wind speed. Both surface solar heating and evaporative cooling are weak. The reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds exceeds the reduced solar heating due to enhanced cloudiness. The result is a maximum surface heating in the strong convective and high SST regions. Data also show that the maximum surface heating in strong convective regions is interrupted by transient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Due to the seasonal variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, trade winds and clouds also experience seasonal variations. Regions of high SST and low-level convergence follow the Sun, where the surface heating is a maximum. As the Sun moves away from a convective region, the strong trade winds set in, and the evaporative cooling enhances, resulting in a net cooling of the surface. During an El Nino, the maximum SST and convective region shifts eastward from the maritime continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Following the eastward shift of the maximum SST, the region of maximum cloudiness and surface heating also shift eastward. As the atmospheric and oceanic circulation returns to normal situations, the trade winds increase and the surface heating decreases. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds is one of the major factors that modulate the SST distribution of the Pacific warm pool.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes: Validations with a PRE-STORM Case - Part 1

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-11, 1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. The leading convective zone, the trailing stratiform region, the horizontal wind flow patterns, pressure perturbation associated with the storm dynamics, and the cool pool in front of the system all agree well with the observations. Both the observations and the bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that, the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region are remnants of the previous stronger convections at the leading edge of the system. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Preliminary examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in convective zone simulated in the bulk model. Further quantitative analysis and sensitivity tests for this case using both the bulk and bin models will be presented in a companion paper.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗

Interannual Variations in Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Humidity: Understanding Tropical Convective and Dynamical Processes

Uncertainty remains as to what extent variability in mid to upper tropospheric moisture, especially over the tropics, behaves as constant relative humidity during interannual climate variations associated with ENSO. Systematic variations in HIRS 6.7 micron and MLS 205 GHz suggest that dry subtropical regions evolving during warm SST events depress relative humidity, but the interpretation of these events is still uncertain. Additional specific concerns have to do with regional signatures of convective processes: How does the origin of dry air in the eastern subtropical N. Pacific differ in ENSO warm versus cold years? The dynamics of Rossby wave forcing by convective heating, subtropical jet stream dynamics, and dynamics driven subsidence all come into play here. How variations in precipitating ice hydrometeors from tropical anvils relate to variations in UTH is also a subject of debate? Do variations in precipitating ice, cloud cover and water vapor behavior show any support for the Iris-hypothesis mechanism? Here we examine historical records of SSM/T-2 data to gain a better physical understanding of the effects of deep convective moisture sources and dynamically-induced vertical circulations on UTH. These high frequency microwave measurements (183.3 GHz) take advantage of far less sensitivity to cloud hydrometeors than the 6.7 micron data to yield a record of upper tropospheric relative humidity. Furthermore, signatures of precipitating ice from these channels facilitate comparisons to TRMM hydrometeors detected by radar. In analyzing these observations, we isolate water vapor and temperature change components that affect brightness temperatures and the inferred relative humidity. Trajectory modeling is also used to understand interannual humidity anomalies in terms of outflow fbm convective regions and history of diabatically-driven sinking which modifies relative humidity.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

A modified ATI technique for nowcasting convective rain volumes over areas

This paper explores the applicability of the area-time-integral (ATI) technique for the estimation of the growth portion only of a convective storm (while the rain volume is computed using the entire life history of the event) and for nowcasting the total rain volume of a convective system at the stage of its maximum development. For these purposes, the ATIs were computed from the digital radar data (for 1981-1982) from the North Dakota Cloud Modification Project, using the maximum echo area (ATIA) no less than 25 dBz, the maximum reflectivity, and the maximum echo height as the end of the growth portion of the convective event. Linear regression analysis demonstrated that correlations between total rain volume or the maximum rain volume versus ATIA were the strongest. The uncertainties obtained were comparable to the uncertainties which typically occur in rain volume estimates obtained from radar data employing Z-R conversion followed by space and time integration. This demonstrates that the total rain volume of a storm can be nowcasted at its maximum stage of development.

Makarau, Amos↗

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes: Cloud Microphysics and Storm Dynamics Interactions - Part 2

Part I of this paper compares two simulations, one using a bulk and the other a detailed bin microphysical scheme, of a long-lasting, continental mesoscale convective system with leading convection and trailing stratiform region. Diagnostic studies and sensitivity tests are carried out in Part II to explain the simulated contrasts in the spatial and temporal variations by the two microphysical schemes and to understand the interactions between cloud microphysics and storm dynamics. It is found that the fixed raindrop size distribution in the bulk scheme artificially enhances rain evaporation rate and produces a stronger near surface cool pool compared with the bin simulation. In the bulk simulation, cool pool circulation dominates the near-surface environmental wind shear in contrast to the near-balance between cool pool and wind shear in the bin simulation. This is the main reason for the contrasting quasi-steady states simulated in Part I. Sensitivity tests also show that large amounts of fast-falling hail produced in the original bulk scheme not only result in a narrow trailing stratiform region but also act to further exacerbate the strong cool pool simulated in the bulk parameterization. An empirical formula for a correction factor, r(q(sub r)) = 0.11q(sub r)(exp -1.27) + 0.98, is developed to correct the overestimation of rain evaporation in the bulk model, where r is the ratio of the rain evaporation rate between the bulk and bin simulations and q(sub r)(g per kilogram) is the rain mixing ratio. This formula offers a practical fix for the simple bulk scheme in rain evaporation parameterization.

Li, Xiaowen↗

A general circulation model study of the effects of faster rotation rate, enhanced CO2 concentration, and reduced solar forcing: Implications for the faint young sun paradox

Solar energy at the top of the atmosphere (solar constant), rotation rate, and carbon dioxide (CO2) may have varied significantly over Earth's history, especially during the earliest times. The sensitivity of a general circulation model to faster rotation, enhanced CO2 concentration, and reduced solar constant is presented. The control simulation of this study has a solar constant reduced by 10% the present amount, zero land fraction using a swamp ocean surface, CO2 concentrations of 330 ppmv, present-day rotation rate, and is integrated under mean diurnal and seasonal solar forcing. Four sensitivity test are performed under zero land fraction and reduced solar constant conditions by varying the earth's rotation rate atmospheric CO2 concentration and solar constant. The global mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) compared to the control simulation: were 6.6 K to 12 K higher than the control's global mean temperature of 264.7 K. Sea ice is confined to higher latitudes in each experiment compared to the control, with ice-free areas equatorward of the subtropics. The warm SSTs are associated with a 20% reduction in clouds for the rotation rate experiments and higher CO2 concentrations in the other experiments. These results are in contrast to previous studies that have used energy balance and radiative convective models. Previous studies required a much larger atmospheric CO2 increase to prevent an ice-covered Earth. The results of the study, suggest that because of its possible feedback with clouds, the general circulation of the atmosphere should be taken into account in understanding the climate of early Earth. While higher CO2 concentrations are likely in view of the results, very large atmospheric CO2 concentrations may not be necessary to counterbalance the lower solar constant that existed early in Earth's history.

Jenkins, Gregory S.↗

Thermal infrared constraints on ammonia ice particles as candidates for clouds in the atmosphere of Saturn

Saturn atmosphere thermal IR emission observations have uncovered two phenomena that may be accounted for by large ammonia ice particles: the depression of thermal brightness near the equator, and inconsistent IR and radio occultation results. Ammonia ice particles yield the opacity that can account for the contrast between the equatorial region and a brighter area near 15 deg S, and may also reconcile the 45-micron brightness of these two regions with the mean temperature structure of Voyager 2 radio occultation results. A cloud model whose ice particles are distributed in an equal ratio with gas particles up to the 100 mbar pressure level is found to fit the equatorial data, while a thinner cloud, or one that does not extend higher than the 400 mbar limit of the convective region matches the 15 deg S data.

Orton, G. S.↗

Case study of the March 24, 1976 Elton, Louisiana tornado using satellite infrared imagery, Doppler sounder, rawinsonde, and radar observations

The Elton, Louisiana tornado on March 24, 1976 has been studied using GOES digital infrared data for the growth and collapse of the cloud top, the temperature-height relationship and air mass instability from rawinsonde data, gravity waves from Doppler sounder records, and radar summaries from storm activity during the three-hour time period immediately preceding the touchdown of the tornado. In this case, the overshooting turret collapsed 30 minutes before the tornado touchdown as the eastward moving cloud reached Elton, Louisiana. Results show that the gravity waves were excited by the enhanced convection of the storm penetrating through the tropopause in the 2.5 hour time period before the tornado touched down.

Hung, R. J.↗

Nuclear winter - Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions

The results of a computerized simulation of the potential global environmental effects of dust and smoke clouds that would be generated by a nuclear war are presented. Short term effects of blast, fire, and radiation are neglected in the series of physical models that include a nuclear war scenario, a particle microphysics model, and a radiative convective model. Account is taken of the altitude-dependent dust, smoke, radioactivity, and NO(x) injections, the temporal evolution of dust and smoke clouds, land and ocean environments, and temperature contrasts. A nuclear exchange would produce thousands of individual smoke and dust clouds rising up to 30 km altitude in the midlatitudes. The smoke, dust, and radioactive debris would cover the entire midlatitudes within 1-2 weeks. The smoke would arise from conflagrations of forests, suburbs, and urban areas. Obscuration of sunlight would induce subfreezing temperatures for several months, disruption of the global circulation patterns, and the arrival of a nuclear winter, followed and accompanied by radioactive fallout, pyrogenic air pollution, and UV-B flux enhancements. It is estimated that a total of only 100 Mtons would be sufficient to plunge the Northern Hemisphere summer to subfreezing temperatures lasting months. Since the probable exchange in a nuclear war would exceed 5000 Mtons, it is expected that many species, including humans, may not survive the war.

Turco, R. P.↗

Time dependence of the earth's radiation fields determined from ERBS and NOAA-9 satellites

Satellite measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are providing important quantitative data on the diurnal variability of broadband shortwave and longwave radiation. The results derived from the combination of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and NOAA-9 indicate that the largest diurnal variations in longwave radiation occur typically over deserts and over land areas which experience intense convective activity. Maximum values of the albedo diurnal amplitude factor are over oceans. Seasonal and cloud cover variations have important effects on the diurnal cycles of earth's radiation budget. ERBE results derived for individual regions are in substantial agreement with the diurnal results derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) measurements.

Harrison, E. F.↗

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Combined Radiometer-Radar Microphysical Profile Estimations with Emphasis on High Frequency Brightness Temperature Observations

Information about the vertical microphysical cloud structure is useful in many modeling and predictive practices. Radiometers and radars are used to observe hydrometeor properties. This paper describes an iterative retrieval algorithm that combines the use of airborne active and wideband (10 to 340 GHz) passive observations to estimate the vertical content and particle size distributions of liquid and frozen hydrometeors. The physically-based retrieval algorithm relies on the high frequencies (greater than 89 GHz) to provide details on the frozen hydrometeors. Neglecting the high frequencies yielded acceptable estimates of the liquid profiles, but the ice profiles were poorly retrieved. Airborne radar and radiometer observations from the third Convection and Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3) were used in the retrieval algorithm as constraints. Nadir profiles were estimated for a minute each of flight time (approximately 12.5 km along track) from an anvil, convection, and quasi- stratiform rain. The complex structure of the frozen hydrometeors required the most iterations for convergence for the anvil cloud type. The wideband observations were found to more than double the estimated frozen hydrometeor content as compared to retrievals using only 90-GHz and below. The convective and quasi-stratiform quickly reached convergence (minimized difference between observations and calculations using the estimated profiles). A qualitative validation using coincident in situ CAMEX-3 observations shows that the retrieved particle size distributions are well corroborated with independent measurements.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗