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NASA NTRS1993

GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS)

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) program seeks to improve the physical understanding of sub-grid scale cloud processes and their representation in parameterization schemes. By improving the description and understanding of key cloud system processes, GCSS aims to develop the necessary parameterizations in climate and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. GCSS will address these issues mainly through the development and use of cloud-resolving or cumulus ensemble models to generate realizations of a set of archetypal cloud systems. The focus of GCSS is on mesoscale cloud systems, including precipitating convectively-driven cloud systems like MCS's and boundary layer clouds, rather than individual clouds, and on their large-scale effects. Some of the key scientific issues confronting GCSS that particularly relate to research activities in the central U.S. are presented.

Moncrieff, Mitch↗
NASA NTRS1995

Collapse and fragmentation of molecular cloud cores. 2: Collapse induced by stellar shock waves

The standard scenario for low-mass star formation involves 'inside-out' collapse of a dense molecular cloud core following loss of magnetic field support through ambipolar diffusion. However, isotopic anomalies in presolar grains and meteoritical inclusions imply that the collapse of the presolar cloud may have been triggered by a stellar shock wave. This paper explores 'outside-in' collapse, that is, protostellar collapse initiated directly by the compression of quiescent dense cloud cores impacted by relatively slow stellar shock waves. A second-order accurate, gravitational hydrodynamics code has been used to study both the spherically symmetrical and three-dimensional evolution of initially centrally condensed, isothermal, self-gravitating, solar-mass cloud cores that are struck by stellar shock waves with velocities up to 25 km/s and postshock temperatures of 10 to 10,000 K. The models show that such mild shock waves do not completely shred and destroy the cloud, and that the dynamical ram pressure can compress the cloud to the verge of self-gravitational collapse. However, compression caused by a high postshock temperature is a considerably more effective means of inducing collapse. Shock-induced collapse produces high initial mass accretion rates (greater than 10(exp -4) solar mass/yr in a solar-mass cloud) that decline rapidly to much lower values, depending on the presence (approximately 10(exp -6) solar mass/yr) or absence (approximately 10(exp -8) to 10(exp -7) solar mass/yr) of an infinite reservoir of mass. Stellar mass accretion rates approximately 10(exp -7) solar mass/yr have been previously inferred from the luminosities of T Tauri stars; balanced mass accretion (stellar rate = envelope rate) at approximately 10(exp -7) solar mass/yr could then be possible if accretion occurs from a finite mass reservoir. Fluid tracers are used to determine what fraction of the stellar shock material is incorporated into the resulting protostellar object and disk; roughly half the impinging material is injected into the collapsing cloud core when there is a high postshock temperature. The models are consistent with a scenario where an AGB star wind triggered the collapse of the presolar cloud while injecting about 0.01 solar mass of matter derived from the AGB star envelope, as has been separately inferred on the basis of nucleosynthesis calculations.

Boss, Alan P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Magnetic clouds, helicity conservation, and intrinsic scale flux ropes

An intrinsic-scale flux-rope model for interplanetary magnetic clouds, incorporating conservation of magnetic helicity, flux and mass is found to adequately explain clouds' average thermodynamic and magnetic properties. In spite their continuous expansion as they balloon into interplanetary space, magnetic clouds maintain high temperatures. This is shown to be due to magnetic energy dissipation. The temperature of an expanding cloud is shown to pass through a maximum above its starting temperature if the initial plasma beta in the cloud is less than 2/3. Excess magnetic pressure inside the cloud is not an important driver of the expansion as it is almost balanced by the tension in the helical field lines. It is conservation of magnetic helicity and flux that requires that clouds expand radially as they move away from the Sun. Comparison with published data shows good agreement between measured cloud properties and theory. Parameters determined from theoretical fits to the data, when extended back to the Sun, are consistent with the origin of interplanetary magnetic clouds in solar filament eruptions. A possible extension of the heating mechanism discussed here to heating of the solar corona is discussed.

Kumar, A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Global Single and Multiple Cloud Classification with a Fuzzy Logic Expert System

An unresolved problem in remote sensing concerns the analysis of satellite imagery containing both single and multiple cloud layers. While cloud parameterizations are very important both in global climate models and in studies of the Earth's radiation budget, most cloud retrieval schemes, such as the bispectral method used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), have no way of determining whether overlapping cloud layers exist in any group of satellite pixels. Coakley (1983) used a spatial coherence method to determine whether a region contained more than one cloud layer. Baum et al. (1995) developed a scheme for detection and analysis of daytime multiple cloud layers using merged AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder) data collected during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus 2 field campaign. Baum et al. (1995) explored the use of a cloud classification technique based on AVHRR data. This study examines the feasibility of applying the cloud classifier to global satellite imagery.

Welch, Ronald M.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Search for Star Formation in the Translucent Cloud MBM 40

The star formation status of the translucent high-latitude molecular cloud, MBM 40, is explored through analysis of radio, infrared, optical, and X-ray data. With a peak visual extinction of 1 to 2 mag, MBM 40 is an example of a high-latitude cloud near the diffuse/translucent demarcation. However, unlike most translucent clouds, MBM 40 exhibits a compact morphology and a kinetic energy-to gravitational potential energy ratio near unity. Our radio data, encompassing the CO (J = 1-0), CS (J = 2-1), and H2CO 1(sub 11-1(sub 10), spectral line transitions, reveal that the cloud contains a ridge of molecular gas with n greater than or equal to 10(exp 3)/ cc. In addition, the molecular data, together with IRAS data, indicate that the mass of MBM 40 is approx. 40 solar mass. In light of the ever-increasing number of recently formed stars far from any dense molecular clouds or cores, we searched the environs of MBM 40 for any trace of recent star formation. We used the ROSAT All-Sky Survey X-ray data and a ROSAT PSPC pointed observation toward MBM 40 to identify 33 stellar candidates with properties consistent with pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars. Follow-up optical spectroscopy of the candidates with V less than 15.5 was conducted with the 1.5 m Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory telescope in order to identify signatures of T Tauri or pre-main- sequence stars (such as the Li 6708 A resonance line). Since none of our optically observed candidates display standard PMS signatures, we conclude that MBM 40 displays no evidence of recent or ongoing star formation. The absence of high-density molecular cores in the cloud and the relatively low column density compared to star-forming interstellar clouds may be the principal reasons that MBM 40 is devoid of star formation. More detailed comparison between this cloud and other, higher extinction translucent and dark clouds may elucidate the necessary initial conditions for the onset of low-mass star formation.

Magnani, Loris↗
NASA NTRS1999

Global Observations of Aerosols and Clouds from Combined Lidar and Passive Instruments to Improve Radiation Budget and Climate Studies

Current uncertainties in the effects of clouds and aerosols on the Earth radiation budget limit our understanding of the climate system and the potential for global climate change. Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations - Climatologie Etendue des Nuages et des Aerosols (PICASSO-CENA) is a recently approved satellite mission within NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program which will address these uncertainties with a unique suite of active and passive instruments. The Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) demonstrated the potential benefits of space lidar for studies of clouds and aerosols. PICASSO-CENA builds on this experience with a payload consisting of a two-wavelength polarization-sensitive lidar, an oxygen A-band spectrometer (ABS), an imaging infrared radiometer (IIR), and a wide field camera (WFC). Data from these instruments will be used to measure the vertical distributions of aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere, as well as optical and physical properties of aerosols and clouds which influence the Earth radiation budget. PICASSO-CENA will be flown in formation with the PM satellite of the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) to provide a comprehensive suite of coincident measurements of atmospheric state, aerosol and cloud optical properties, and radiative fluxes. The mission will address critical uncertainties iin the direct radiative forcing of aerosols and clouds as well as aerosol influences on cloud radiative properties and cloud-climate radiation feedbacks. PICASSO-CENA is planned for a three year mission, with a launch in early 2003. PICASSO-CENA is being developed within the framework of a collaboration between NASA and CNES.

Winker, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types: At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.50 C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2, which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning, is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types. At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.5C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

DelGenio, Anthony↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds

The uncertainty in the global climate sensitivity to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide is often stated to be 1.5-4.5 K, largely due to uncertainties in cloud feedbacks. The lower end of this range is based on the assumption or prediction in some GCMs that cloud liquid water behaves adiabatically, thus implying that cloud optical thickness will increase in a warming climate if the physical thickness of clouds is invariant. Satellite observations of low-level cloud optical thickness and liquid water path have challenged this assumption, however, at low and middle latitudes. We attempt to explain the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site in the Southern Great Plains. We find that low cloud liquid water path is insensitive to temperature in winter but strongly decreases with temperature in summer. The latter occurs because surface relative humidity decreases with warming, causing cloud base to rise and clouds to geometrically thin. Meanwhile, inferred liquid water contents hardly vary with temperature, suggesting entrainment depletion. Physically, the temperature dependence appears to represent a transition from higher probabilities of stratified boundary layers at cold temperatures to a higher incidence of convective boundary layers at warm temperatures. The combination of our results and the earlier satellite findings imply that the minimum climate sensitivity should be revised upward from 1.5 K.

DelGenio, Anthony↗
NASA NTRS1998

Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale Cloud Variability

The atmospheric circulation and its interaction with the oceanic circulation involve non-linear and non-local exchanges of energy and water over a very large range of space and time scales. These exchanges are revealed, in part, by the related variations of clouds, which occur on a similar range of scales as the atmospheric motions that produce them. Collection of comprehensive measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, clouds and surface allows for diagnosis of some of these exchanges. The use of a multi-satellite-network approach by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) comes closest to providing complete coverage of the relevant range space and time scales over which the clouds, atmosphere and ocean vary. A nearly 15-yr dataset is now available that covers the range from 3 hr and 30 km to decade and planetary. This paper considers three topics: (1) cloud variations at the smallest scales and how they may influence radiation-cloud interactions, and (2) cloud variations at "moderate" scales and how they may cause natural climate variability, and (3) cloud variations at the largest scales and how they affect the climate. The emphasis in this discussion is on the more mature subject of cloud-radiation interactions. There is now a need to begin similar detailed diagnostic studies of water exchange processes.

Rossow, William B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Diffuse Reflection of Laser Light From Clouds

Laser light reflected from an aqueous suspension of particles or "cloud" with known thickness and particle size distribution defines the "cloud radiative Green's function", G. G is sensitive to cloud thickness, allowing retrieval of that important quantity. We describe a laboratory simulation of G, useful in design of an offbeam Lidar instrument for remote sensing of cloud thickness. Clouds of polystyrene microspheres suspended in water are analogous to real clouds of water droplets suspended in air. The size distribution extends from 0.5 microns to 25 microns, roughly lognormal, similar to real clouds. Density of suspended spheres is adjusted so photon mean-free-path is about 10 cm, 1000 times smaller than in real clouds. The light source is a Nd:YAG laser at 530 nm. Detectors are flux and photon-counting PMTs, with a glass probe for precise positioning. A Labview 5 VI controls position and data acquisition, via an NI Motion Control board connected to a stepper motor driving an Edmund linear slider,and a 16-channel 16-bit NI-DAQ board. The stepper motor is accurate to 10 microns. Step size is selectable. Far from the beam, the rate of exponential increase in the beam direction scales as expected from diffusion theory, linearly with cloud thickness, and inversely as the square root of the reduced optical thickness, independent of particle size. Nearer the beam the signal increases faster than exponential and depends on particle size. Results verify 3D Monte Carlo simulations that demonstrate detectability of remotely sensed offbeam returns, without filters at night, with narrow bandpass filter in day.

Cahalan, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Autonomous, Full-Time Cloud Profiling at Arm Sites with Micro Pulse Lidar

Since the early 1990's technology advances permit ground based lidar to operate full time and profile all significant aerosol and cloud structure of the atmosphere up to the limit of signal attenuation. These systems are known as Micro Pulse Lidars (MPL), as referenced by Spinhirne (1993), and were first in operation at DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. The objective of the ARM program is to improve the predictability of climate change, particularly as it relates to cloud-climate feedback. The fundamental application of the MPL systems is towards the detection of all significant hydrometeor layers, to the limit of signal attenuation. The heating and cooling of the atmosphere are effected by the distribution and characteristics of clouds and aerosol concentration. Aerosol and cloud retrievals in several important areas can only be adequately obtained with active remote sensing by lidar. For cloud cover, the height and related emissivity of thin clouds and the distribution of base height for all clouds are basic parameters for the surface radiation budget, and lidar is essetial for accurate measurements. The ARM MPL observing network represents the first long-term, global lidar study known within the community. MPL systems are now operational at four ARM sites. A six year data set has been obtained at the original Oklahoma site, and there are several years of observations at tropical and artic sites. Observational results include cloud base height distributions and aerosol profiles. These expanding data sets offer a significant new resource for cloud, aerosol and atmospheric radiation analysis. The nature of the data sets, data processing algorithms, derived parameters and application results are presented.

Spinhirne, James D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Effect of Clouds on Water Vapor Profiling from the Millimeter-Wave Radiometric Measurements

Simultaneous measurements with the millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR), cloud lidar system (CLS), and the MODIS airborne simulator (MAS) were made aboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft over the western Pacific Ocean on 17-18 January 1993. These measurements were used to study the effects of clouds on water vapor profile retrievals based on millimeter-wave radiometer measurements. The CLS backscatter measurements (at 0.532 and 1.064 am) provided information on the heights and a detailed structure of cloud layers; the types of clouds could be positively identified. All 12 MAS channels (0.6-13 Am) essentially respond to all types of clouds, while the six MIR channels (89-220 GHz) show little sensitivity to cirrus clouds. The radiances from the 12-/Am and 0.875-gm channels of the MAS and the 89-GHz channel of the MIR were used to gauge the performance of the retrieval of water vapor profiles from the MIR observations under cloudy conditions. It was found that, for cirrus and absorptive (liquid) clouds, better than 80% of the retrieval was convergent when one of the three criteria was satisfied; that is, the radiance at 0.875 Am is less than 100 W/cm.sr, or the brightness at 12 Am is greater than 260 K, or brightness at 89 GHz is less than 270 K (equivalent to cloud liquid water of less than 0.04 g/cm). The range of these radiances for convergent retrieval increases markedly when the condition for convergent retrieval was somewhat relaxed. The algorithm of water vapor profiling from the MIR measurements could not perform adequately over the areas of storm-related clouds that scatter radiation at millimeter wavelengths.

Wang, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Arctic Stratus Cloud Properties and Their Effect on the Surface Radiation Budget: Selected Cases from FIRE ACE

To study Arctic stratus cloud properties and their effect on the surface radiation balance during the spring transition season, analyses are performed using data taken during three cloudy and two clear days in May 1998 as part of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE). Radiative transfer models are used in conjunction with surface- and satellite-based measurements to retrieve the layer-averaged microphysical and shortwave radiative properties. The surface-retrieved cloud properties in Cases 1 and 2 agree well with the in situ and satellite retrievals. Discrepancies in Case 3 are due to spatial mismatches between the aircraft and the surface measurements in a highly variable cloud field. Also, the vertical structure in the cloud layer is not fully characterized by the aircraft measurements. Satellite data are critical for understanding some of the observed discrepancies. The satellite-derived particle sizes agree well with the coincident surface retrievals and with the aircraft data when they were collocated. Optical depths derived from visible-channel data over snow backgrounds were overestimated in all three cases, suggesting that methods currently used in satellite cloud climatologies derive optical depths that are too large. Use of a near-infrared channel with a solar infrared channel to simultaneously derive optical depth and particle size appears to alleviate this overestimation problem. Further study of the optical depth retrieval is needed. The surface-based radiometer data reveal that the Arctic stratus clouds produce a net warming of 20 W m(exp -2) in the surface layer during the transition season suggesting that these clouds may accelerate the spring time melting of the ice pack. This surface warming contrasts with the net cooling at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) during the same period. All analysis of the complete FIRE ACE data sets will be valuable for understanding the role of clouds during the entire melting and refreezing process that occurs annually in the Arctic.

Doug, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2001

Polar Cirrus Cloud Properties Through Long-Term Lidar and Radiometer Observations

In comparison to mid latitude cloud cover, knowledge of polar cirrus and other cloud cover is limited. The interpretations of satellite-based cloud imaging and retrievals in polar regions have major problems due to factors such as darkness and extreme low temperatures. Beginning in 2002 a NASA orbiting lidar instrument, GLAS, (Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) will unambiguously define cloud type and fraction with good coverage of polar regions. Active laser sensing gives the spatial and temporal distribution of clouds and diamond dust. In preparation for, and supplementing the GLAS measurements are ground based MP (micro pulse) lidar experiments providing continuous profiling. MP lidar installations have been operating at the South Pole since December 1999 and at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program arctic site since 1996. Both at the ARM Barrow, Alaska site and at the South Pole station, Fourier-transform interferometers also observe clouds in the wavelength intervals between approximately 5 and 18 microns. Spectral instruments can yield cloud microphysical properties with additional information from lidar about the vertical extent of clouds being modeled. We examine the simultaneous lidar and spectral data from both Barrow and South Pole, to obtain cloud properties (optical depth, particle size) by the use of both instruments. The results have applications to interpretation of current satellite data, and GLAS measurements when available.

Spinhirne, James↗
NASA NTRS2001

New Multispectral Cloud Retrievals from MODIS

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000. MODIS scans a swath width sufficient to provide nearly complete global coverage every two days from a polar-orbiting, sun- synchronous, platform at an altitude of 705 km, and provides images in 36 spectral bands between 0.415 and 14.235 microns with spatial resolutions of 250 m (two bands), 500 m (five bands) and 1000 m (29 bands). In this paper we will describe the various methods being used for the remote sensing of cloud properties using MODIS data, focusing primarily on the MODIS cloud mask used to distinguish clouds, clear sky, heavy aerosol, and shadows on the ground, and on the remote sensing of cloud optical properties, especially cloud optical thickness and effective radius of water drops and ice crystals. Additional properties of clouds derived from multispectral thermal infrared measurements, especially cloud top pressure and emissivity, will also be described. Results will be presented of MODIS cloud properties both over the land and over the ocean, showing the consistency in cloud retrievals over various ecosystems used in the retrievals. The implications of this new observing system on global analysis of the Earth's environment will be discussed.

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

GOES Cloud Detection at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center

The bi-spectral threshold (BTH) for cloud detection and height assignment is now operational at NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC). This new approach is similar in principle to the bi-spectral spatial coherence (BSC) method with improvements made to produce a more robust cloud-filtering algorithm for nighttime cloud detection and subsequent 24-hour operational cloud top pressure assignment. The method capitalizes on cloud and surface emissivity differences from the GOES 3.9 and 10.7-micrometer channels to distinguish cloudy from clear pixels. Separate threshold values are determined for day and nighttime detection, and applied to a 20-day minimum composite difference image to better filter background effects and enhance differences in cloud properties. A cloud top pressure is assigned to each cloudy pixel by referencing the 10.7-micrometer channel temperature to a thermodynamic profile from a locally -run regional forecast model. This paper and supplemental poster will present an objective validation of nighttime cloud detection by the BTH approach in comparison with previous methods. The cloud top pressure will be evaluated by comparing to the NESDIS operational CO2 slicing approach.

Laws, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cloud Modeling Using Field Project Data for the Study of Precipitation Processes

The use of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) in the study of precipitation process and their relation to the large-scale environment can be generally categorized into two approaches. The first approach is so called "cloud ensemble modeling". In this approach, many clouds of different size in various stages of their lifecycles can be present at any model simulation time. Large-scale effects are derived from observations and imposed into the model as the main forcing. The advantage of this approach is that the modeled convection will be forced to have the same intensity, thermodynamic budget and organization as the obserations.This approach will also allow CRMs to perform multi-day or multi-week time integrations. The second approach usually requires initial temperature and water vapor profiles that have a medium to large CAPE, and open lateral boundary conditions are used. The modeled clouds could be termed "self-forced convection". Model improvements, such as in the microphysics, are achieved using the second approach. In cloud ensemble modeling, accurate large-scale advective tendencies for temperature and water vapor are the main forcing for the CRMs. We found that the large-scale advective terms for temperature and water vapor are not always consistent, For example, large-scale forcing could indicate strong drying which would produce cooling in the model through evaporation but not contain large-scale advective heating to compensate. This discrepancy in forcing would cause differences between the observed and modeled latent heating profiles. Good measurements of other quantities (i.e., surface fluxes and radiation) are also required to perform variational objective analysis that computes and minimizes a "cost function" that constrains the difference between the large-scale advective forcing in temperature and water vapor. With self-forced convection, accurate vertical distributions of temperature, moisture (water vapor), and horizontal winds are required. The timing of the measurements relative to cloud development is crucial (i.e., prior to cloud triggering). Microphysical measurements (i.e., the cloud number concentration and size distribution) can also be used in this second approach but are of secondary importance with cloud ensemble modeling. In this paper, data collected during TRMM field campaigns (FCs; i.e., SCSMEX, LBA and KWAJEX) which were aimed at validating TRMM products (i.e., rainfall and the vertical distribution of latent heating) will be used to examine the impact of errors in the initial conditions (e.g.., soundings an large-scale forcing) on simulated rainfall distributions and brightness. Rainfall and precipitations simulated from a CRM will also be compared with those estimated by a schocastic model.

Tao, W.-K.↗