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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation and Modeling of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers Subject to Favorable Pressure Gradients due to Streamline Curvature

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of favorable-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers are presented for a nominal freestream Mach number of 5, with the objective of assessing the limitations of the currently available Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The favorable pressure gradient is induced by the streamwise curvature of the two-dimensional, planar, convex measurement surface used during experiments at the Texas A&M University. The DNS data shows good comparison with the measured velocity profiles, strain rates, and some, but not all, of the Reynolds-stress components. The discrepancies between the predicted and the measured wall-normal as well as shear stress components are primarily attributed to the lower than actual values inferred from typical PIV measurements of turbulent boundary layers. The DNS data shows a zero or slightly negative Reynolds shear stress in the outer part of the boundary-layer, which is indicative of the decaying turbulent motion under a strong favorable pressure gradient. The DNS data is also compared with the results of RANS computations based on commonly used zero, one, and two equation eddy-viscosity models. The RANS models yield reasonable comparisons with the DNS-based skin friction under zero and weak pressure gradients, but significant discrepancies under a strong pressure gradient. The k-w SST model provided the best overall predictions of skin friction, except in the region where the flow transitions from a favorable to an adverse pressure gradient. While the RANS models examined herein also give good predictions of the Reynolds shear stress under a sufficiently weak pressure gradient, none of those models are able to appropriately capture the reduction in the Reynolds stresses when the flow was subjected to a strong pressure gradient. An a priori assessment of the turbulent heat-flux prediction based on the assumption of a constant turbulent Prandtl number with the DNS data shows that while the constant turbulent Prandtl number model is effective in predicting the wall-normal component of turbulent heat flux, it does not capture the turbulent heat transfer in the streamwise direction for all the pressure gradient cases. The failure of the constant turbulent Prandtl number model highlights a requirement for more advanced models of the turbulent heat flux.

turbulent boundary layers↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Macro-scale Testing and Micromechanics Modeling of Fracture Behaviors for Boron Carbide Composites with Hierarchical Microstructures

With a unique combination of properties including high hardness, low density, wear and corrosion resistance, thermal stability, high neutron absorption, and semi-conductivity, boron carbide (B4C) is a candidate material for various engineering applications that involve extreme environment. The current applications of boron carbide, however, are limited by its intrinsic brittleness due to its strong covalent bonding. To toughen boron carbide, in this work hierarchical microstructure designs was used to provide multiple toughening mechanisms including crack deflection/bridging, micro-crack toughening, etc. Using field assisted sintering, B4C composites with hierarchical microstructure features including graphite platelets, micron and sub-micron sized TiB2 reinforcements were fabricated. The fracture toughness of fabricated B4C composites were previously measured at micro-scale using micro-indentation followed by post-testing microstructure inspection. However, questions including whether the fracture toughness enhancement measured at micro-scale can translate to macro-scale mechanical properties, and what are the fundamental mechanisms behind observed fracture toughness enhancement, remain to be answered. In this study, the fabricated B4C composites were tested using standardized four-point bending method to obtain fracture toughness at macro-scale. In addition, micromechanics modeling was conducted using MAC/GMC code and crack-band model to study the effect of residual stress and weak interphases on fracture behaviors of B4C composites reinforced with TiB2 particles. Through standardized four-point bending tests, fracture toughness enhancements up to 2.85, 3.32, and 3.65 MPa∙m(exp 1/2) (from 2.38 MPa∙m(exp 1/2)) were achieved for B4C composites with graphite platelets addition (micro/nano B4C), with TiB2 formation (micro B4C-TiB2), and with both graphite and TiB2 addition (micro/nano B4C-TiB2) respectively. Micromechanics modeling indicated that introduction of thermal residual stress and weak interphases caused enhanced micro-cracking behavior and resulted in the observed fracture toughness enhancement. These results furthered understanding about the mechanical behaviors at macro-scale and the mechanisms behind observed fracture toughness enhancement for B4C composites with hierarchical microstructures and can provide reference data for the future design of B4C composites with optimized microstructures for further fracture toughness enhancement.

Boron Carbide↗
NASA NTRS2004

Scientific impacts of wind direction errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (< 45°) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (< 7 m/s) conditions was made. Half of the winds over global oceans are below 7 m/s, in their long-term averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder highlatitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean’s function in modifying Earth’s climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Niño episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3–5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost.

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Dynamics of Ultrasonically Levitated Drops in an Electric Field

Ultrasonic and electrostatic leviation techniques have allowed the experimental investigation of the nonlinear oscillatory dynamics of free droplets with diameter between 0.1 and 0.4 cm. The measurement of the resonance frequencies of the first three normal modes of large amplitude shape oscillations in an electric field of varying magnitude has been carried out with and without surface charges for weakly conducting liquids in air. These oscillations of nonspherical levitated drops have been driven by either modulating the ultrasonic field or by using a time-varying electric field, and the free decay from the oscillatory state has been recorded. A decrease in the resonance frequency of the driven fundamental quadrupole mode has been measured for increasing oblate deformation in the absence of an electric field. Similarly, a decrease in this frequency has also been found for increasing DC electric field magnitude. A soft nonlinearity exists in the amplitude dependence of the resonant mode frequencies for freely decaying as well as ultrasonically and electrically driven uncharged drops. This decrease in resonance frequency is accentuated by the presence of free surface charge on the drop. Subharmonic resonance excitation has been observed for drops in a time-varying electric field, and hysteresis exists for resonant modes driven to large amplitude. Mode coupling from lower-order resonances to higher-order modes has been found to be very weak, even for fairly large amplitude shape oscillations. Most of these results are in general agreement with predictions from recent analytical and numerical investigations.

Ultrasonically↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Prevalence of Precipitation From Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets, but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ∼−38 ∘C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. The results here also demonstrate that the observed abundance of mixed-phase clouds can vary substantially with instrument sensitivity and methodology. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Supercooled clouds↗
NASA NTRS2021

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
NASA NTRS2021

Widely Distributed Exogenic Materials of Varying Compositions and Morphologies on Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Using the multiband imager MapCam on board the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer) spacecraft, we identified 77 instances of proposed exogenic materials distributed globally on the surface of the B-type asteroid (101955) Bennu. We identified materials as exogenic on the basis of an absorption near 1 μm that is indicative of anhydrous silicates. The exogenic materials are spatially resolved by the telescopic camera PolyCam. All such materials are brighter than their surroundings, and they are expressed in a variety of morphologies: homogeneous, breccia-like, inclusion-like, and others. Inclusion-like features are the most common. Visible spectrophotometry was obtained for 46 of the 77 locations from MapCam images. Principal component analysis indicates at least two trends: (i) mixing of Bennu's average spectrum with a strong 1-μm band absorption, possibly from pyroxene-rich material, and (ii) mixing with a weak 1-μm band absorption. The end member with a strong 1-μm feature is consistent with Howardite-Eucrite-Diogenite (HED) meteorites, whereas the one showing a weak 1-μm feature may be consistent with HEDs, ordinary chondrites, or carbonaceous chondrites. The variation in the few available near-infrared reflectance spectra strongly suggests varying compositions among the exogenic materials. Thus, Bennu might record the remnants of multiple impacts with different compositions to its parent body, which could have happened in the very early history of the Solar system. Moreover, at least one of the exogenic objects is compositionally different from the exogenic materials found on the similar asteroid (162173) Ryugu, and they suggest different impact tracks.

minor planets↗
NASA NTRS2022

Terrain Relative Navigation in a Lunar Landing Scenario Using autoNGC

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is developing Autonomous Navigation Guidance and Control (autoNGC) as a flight software system for future onboard use for missions in a variety of orbital regimes, including cislunar space and beyond. This paper describes processor-in-the-loop (PIL) testing using a lunar landing scenario with terrain relative navigation (TRN) and weak-signal GPS. We give an overview of the autoNGC project and describe preliminary navigation simulation results. We also describe the TRN PIL tests on a flight-like development board, using simulated images rendered from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbit high-resolution digital terrain models. The navigation simulations show that weak-signal GPS combined with TRN during a descent from a low lunar parking orbit results in sufficiently low navigation uncertainties to support such a mission profile independent of ground-based navigation. The PIL tests show that onboard image processing and landmark correlation is achievable at a sufficiently high measurement rate.

Michael A Shoemaker↗
NASA NTRS2021

Deep Domain Adaptation based Cloud Type Detection using Active and Passive Satellite Data

Domain adaptation techniques have been developed to handle data from multiple sources or domains. Most existing domain adaptation models assume that source and target domains are homogeneous, i.e., they have the same feature space. Nevertheless, many real world applications often deal with data from heterogeneous domains that come from completely different feature spaces. In our remote sensing application, data in source domain (from an active spaceborne Lidar sensor CALIOP onboard CALIPSO satellite) contain 25 attributes, while data in target domain (from a passive spectroradiometer sensor VIIRS onboard Suomi-NPP satellite) contain 20 different attributes. CALIOP has better representation capability and sensitivity to aerosol types and cloud phase, while VIIRS has wide swaths and better spatial coverage but has inherent weakness in differentiating atmospheric objects on different vertical levels. To address this mismatch of features across the domains/sensors, we propose a novel end-to-end deep domain adaptation with domain mapping and correlation alignment (DAMA) to align the heterogeneous source and target domains in active and passive satellite remote sensing data. It can learn domain invariant representation from source and target domains by transferring knowledge across these domains, and achieve additional performance improvement by incorporating weak label information into the model (DAMA-WL). Our experiments on a collocated CALIOP and VIIRS dataset show that DAMA and DAMA-WL can achieve higher classification accuracy in predicting cloud types.

domain adaptation↗
NASA NTRS2021

On Synthetic Absorption Line Profiles of Thermally Driven Winds from Active Galactic Nuclei

The warm absorbers observed in more than half of all nearby active galactic nuclei are tracers of ionized outflows located at parsec-scale distances from the central engine. If the smallest inferred ionization parameters correspond to plasma at a few 104 K, then the gas undergoes a transition from being bound to unbound, provided it is further heated to ∼106 K at larger radii. Dannen et al. recently discovered that, under these circumstances, thermally driven wind solutions are unsteady and even show very dense clumps due to thermal instability. To explore the observational consequences of these new wind solutions, we compute line profiles based on the one-dimensional simulations of Dannen et al. We show how the line profiles from even a simple steady-state wind solution depend on the ionization energy (IE) of absorbing ions, which is a reflection of the wind ionization stratification. To organize the diversity of the line shapes, we group them into four categories: weak Gaussians, saturated boxy profiles with and without an extended blue wing, and broad weak profiles. The lines with profiles in the last two categories are produced by ions with the highest IE that probe the fastest regions. Their maximum blueshifts agree with the highest flow velocities in thermally unstable models, both steady-state and clumpy versions. In contrast, the maximum blueshifts of the highest-IE lines in thermally stable models can be less than half of the actual solution velocities. Clumpy solutions can additionally imprint distinguishable absorption troughs at widely separated velocities.

Shalini Ganguly↗
NASA NTRS2020

Direct Numerical Simulation of Fog Formation Within the Surface Layer

We investigate the effects of shear-driven turbulence on fog formation in the stably stratified surface layer, using recent direct numerical simulations (DNS) of dry and moist open-channel flows. A constant cooling rate applied at the ground mimics longwave radiative cooling, leading to either turbulent (weakly stable) or laminar (very stable) flows. The transition of the Obukhov, Ozmidov and buoyancy length scales are investigated for different cooling rates and Reynolds numbers. Compared to the dry case, the condensation of liquid water in the moist case supports slightly higher cooling rates before leading to turbulence collapse. In the very stable moist cases, runaway cooling leads to substantial condensation of liquid water close to the ground and fog (visibility less than 1 km) results over much of the domain. In the weakly stable cases, turbulent mixing narrowly yields visibilities of 1 km close to the ground over a similar time period. Despite the idealised nature of the system, the present results suggest that turbulence impedes, although will not necessarily inhibit, fog formation.

Teixeira, Joao↗
NASA NTRS2021

New giant planet beyond the snow line for an extended MOA exoplanet microlens sample

Characterizing a planet detected by microlensing is hard if the planetary signal is weak or the lens-source relative trajectory is far from caustics. However, statistical analyses of planet demography must include those planets to accurately determine occurrence rates. As part of a systematic modelling effort in the context of a >10-yr retrospective analysis of MOA’s survey observations to build an extended MOA statistical sample, we analyse the light curve of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2014-BLG-472. This event provides weak constraints on the physical parameters of the lens, as a result of a planetary anomaly occurring at low magnification in the light curve. We use a Bayesian analysis to estimate the properties of the planet, based on a refined Galactic model and the assumption that all Milky Way’s stars have an equal planet-hosting probability. We find that a lens consisting of a 1.9(+2.2,−1.2)M(J) giant planet orbiting a 0.31(+0.36,−0.19)Mꙩ host at a projected separation of 0.75±0.24au is consistent with the observations and is most likely, based on the Galactic priors. The lens most probably lies in the Galactic bulge, at 7.2(+0.6,−1.7)kpc from Earth. The accurate measurement of the measured planet-to-host star mass ratio will be included in the next statistical analysis of cold planet demography detected by microlensing.

Clément Ranc↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HLPW-4/GMGW-3: Wall-Modeled LES and Lattice-Boltzmann Technology Focus Group Workshop Summary

A summary of the nine submissions to the Wall-Modeled LES and Lattice-Boltzmann(WMLESLB) Technical Focus Group (TFG) at the 4th High lift Prediction Workshop is provided. The focus of this TFG was to assess the current capabilities of WMLES and Lattice-Boltzmann methods on a complex high-lift configuration across a wide range of angles of attack. Preliminary analysis of the submitted data suggests that>250𝑀spatial degrees of freedom are needed to accurately predict pitching moments at high angles of attack due to large pressure gradients present on the outboard slat and main element for𝛼 >17◦(corrected for free-air).While some scatter is reported in pitching moments at the low-angles of attack (𝛼 <11◦) - likely caused by differences in flap separation possibly due to low Reynolds number effects - excellent agreement is observed between the submissions near the𝐶𝐿,max state. Objective superiority over steady state RANS can be seen in terms of lack of excess outboard separation; a majority of the good quality WMLES and LB submissions predict wedge-shaped separation patterns consistent with the experimental oil flow. Differences in the onset of stall mechanism in the free-air configuration for𝛼 >20◦is reported with two distinct topologies observed. Topology A is characterized by the onset of corner-flow separation which progressively grows to produce a pitch break in free-air with an angle of attack increase from𝛼=20.55◦to𝛼=21.47◦+𝜖where𝜖is a small perturbation (varying between submissions and likely to be within±0.3◦). Topology Bis characterized by boundary layer weakness emanating from the inboard side of the wing-pylon juncture substantially larger than any weakness in the wing-body juncture (due to corner-flow);submissions in this category do not show any tendency for occurrence of a pitch break for the free-air configuration within the vicinity of𝛼=21.47◦. The in-tunnel simulations submitted by3 participants using different discretizations, grids and closure models show excellent agreement with the experiment in terms of a) integrated loads, b) surface flow-topology, and c) mechanism for the onset of inboard stall. Further evidence is provided to demonstrate both qualitative and quantitative superiority of all 3 WMLES submissions over a single steady state RANS submission to the workshop.

TTT↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An exact solution of an augmented Burgers equation and amplitude-dependent acoustic propagation speed

Nonlinear sound propagation in the atmosphere is usually modeled using an augmented Burgers equation accounting for a weak nonlinearity and atmospheric absorption. Because the absorption includes the molecular vibrational relaxation, such a Burgers equation is more complex than the regular Burgers equation that only accounts for the thermoviscous dissipation in the absorption. Although an exact solution of the regular Burgers equation has long been derived using the Cole- Hopf transform, an exact solution of the augmented Burgers equation has not been derived previously. Thus, this paper presents an exact solution of the augmented Burgers equation. This novel solution is shown to be equivalent to the solution using the Cole-Hopf transform when the absorption only involves thermoviscous dissipation. It can also be reduced to the known solution of an N-wave when the absorption is ignored. The augmented Burgers equation is an approximation valid for weak nonlinearity. However, this assumption may not be accurate for acoustic signals propagating from the lower atmosphere and which are subsequently refracted downward from the upper atmosphere (e.g., stratosphere and thermosphere) due to the decreasing air density with increasing altitude [Lonzaga, et al., Geophysical Journal International, 200(3), pp.1347-1361]. Consequently, the current paper also discusses the effects of a strong nonlinearity that lead to an amplitude-dependent increase in signal propagation speed. For an impulsive signal such as a sonic boom, these effects cause a dispersion of the signal similar to the observed dispersion of acoustic signals from supersonic Concorde as well as from large explosions.

Joel B Lonzaga↗
NASA NTRS2022

Structural and Dynamical Analysis of the Quiescent Molecular Ridge in the Large Magellanic Cloud

We present a comparison of low-J13CO and CS observations of four different regions in the LMC—the quiescent Molecular Ridge, 30 Doradus, N159, and N113, all at a resolution of ∼3 pc. The regions 30 Dor, N159, and N113 are actively forming massive stars, while the Molecular Ridge is forming almost no massive stars, despite its large reservoir of molecular gas and proximity to N159 and 30 Dor. We segment the emission from each region into hierarchical structures using dendrograms and analyze the sizes, masses, and line widths of these structures. We find that the Ridge has significantly lower kinetic energy at a given size scale and also lower surface densities than the other regions, resulting in higher virial parameters. This suggests that the Ridge is not forming massive stars as actively as the other regions because it has less dense gas and not because collapse is suppressed by excess kinetic energy. We also find that these physical conditions and energy balance vary significantly within the Ridge and that this variation appears only weakly correlated with distance from sites of massive-star formation such as R136 in 30 Dor, which is ∼1 kpc away. These variations also show only a weak correlation with local star formation activity within the clouds.

Molly K Finn↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nonlinear Acoustic Propagation in Low-Density Media

Nonlinear acoustic propagation in the atmosphere is usually modeled using an augmented Burgers equation accounting for atmospheric absorption and weak nonlinearity. However, the weak-nonlinearity assumption may not apply to acoustic signals propagating from the lower atmosphere that are subsequently refracted downward from the upper atmosphere (e.g., stratosphere and thermosphere) due to the decreasing air density with increasing altitude [Lonzaga, et al., Geophysical Journal International, 200(3), pp.1347-1361]. Consequently, this paper discusses the effects of a strong nonlinearity that lead to an amplitude-dependent increase in signal propagation speed. This propagation speed is obtained using a perturbation expansion where the leading-order term is simply the small-amplitude sound speed while the first-order term is the existing expression that gives rise to waveform steepening and stretching. Furthermore, the second-order term is proportional to the spectral density of the acoustic signal and is inversely proportional to the local density of the medium. Consequently, for an impulsive signal such as a sonic boom or an infrasound, the second-order effect causes a dispersion of the signal similar to the observed dispersion of acoustic signals from supersonic Concorde as well as from large explosions. This paper also discusses the extension of these results in general low-density propagation media.

sonic booms↗
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions in the GISS-E2-1 model: physical & biogeochemical ocean effects

Despite observational evidence that an El-Niño is likely to follow tropical volcanic eruptions (Predybaylo et al, 2017), modelling studies have so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism (Khodri et al, 2017) . A previous modelling study found that following the Pinatubo eruption, the tropical Pacific developed El Niño-like conditions that triggered a decrease in the upwelling of DIC and increased carbon uptake (Eddebbar et al., 2019). However, the carbon cycle response to volcanisms as it depends on ENSO phase remains unclear. Here we perform thirty ensemble control simulations using the GISS-E2-1-G model to sample the pre-industrial control ENSO cycle and thirty more to superimpose a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption. We find that the model tends to favor the development of a weak El-Niño following the volcanic eruption only in the case of a volcano that erupts at the start of a neutral ENSO phase. In response to the weak El-Niño, some anomalies have the same sign as those that develop from a strong El-Niño, such as weaker winds, shallower mixed layer depths, less direct but more diffuse radiation at the surface of the ocean, less nitrate, and lower primary productivity. However, other anomalies show the opposite sign as those from a strong El-Niño, such as more precipitation, less surface DIC, and less surface ocean pCO 2 . In contrast to the neutral phase, the volcanic response during positive ENSO and negative ENSO phases are swamped by the model’s internal variability.

ENSO↗