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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Monitoring cognitive function and need with the automated neuropsychological assessment metrics in Decompression Sickness (DCS) research

Hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) research presents the medical monitor with the difficult task of assessing the onset and progression of DCS largely on the basis of subjective symptoms. Even with the introduction of precordial Doppler ultrasound techniques for the detection of venous gas emboli (VGE), correct prediction of DCS can be made only about 65 percent of the time according to data from the Armstrong Laboratory's (AL's) hypobaric DCS database. An AL research protocol concerned with exercise and its effects on denitrogenation efficiency includes implementation of a performance assessment test battery to evaluate cognitive functioning during a 4-h simulated 30,000 ft (9144 m) exposure. Information gained from such a test battery may assist the medical monitor in identifying early signs of DCS and subtle neurologic dysfunction related to cases of asymptomatic, but advanced, DCS. This presentation concerns the selection and integration of a test battery and the timely graphic display of subject test results for the principal investigator and medical monitor. A subset of the Automated Neuropsychological Assessment Metrics (ANAM) developed through the Office of Military Performance Assessment Technology (OMPAT) was selected. The ANAM software provides a library of simple tests designed for precise measurement of processing efficiency in a variety of cognitive domains. For our application and time constraints, two tests requiring high levels of cognitive processing and memory were chosen along with one test requiring fine psychomotor performance. Accuracy, speed, and processing throughout variables as well as RMS error were collected. An automated mood survey provided 'state' information on six scales including anger, happiness, fear, depression, activity, and fatigue. An integrated and interactive LOTUS 1-2-3 macro was developed to import and display past and present task performance and mood-change information.

Nesthus, Thomas E.↗

Ames Optimized TCA Configuration

Configuration design at Ames was carried out with the SYN87-SB (single block) Euler code using a 193 x 49 x 65 C-H grid. The Euler solver is coupled to the constrained (NPSOL) and the unconstrained (QNMDIF) optimization packages. Since the single block grid is able to model only wing-body configurations, the nacelle/diverter effects were included in the optimization process by SYN87's option to superimpose the nacelle/diverter interference pressures on the wing. These interference pressures were calculated using the AIRPLANE code. AIRPLANE is an Euler solver that uses a unstructured tetrahedral mesh and is capable of computations about arbitrary complete configurations. In addition, the buoyancy effects of the nacelle/diverters were also included in the design process by imposing the pressure field obtained during the design process onto the triangulated surfaces of the nacelle/diverter mesh generated by AIRPLANE. The interference pressures and nacelle buoyancy effects are added to the final forces after each flow field calculation. Full details of the (recently enhanced) ghost nacelle capability are given in a related talk. The pseudo nacelle corrections were greatly improved during this design cycle. During the Ref H and Cycle 1 design activities, the nacelles were only translated and pitched. In the cycle 2 design effort the nacelles can translate vertically, and pitch to accommodate the changes in the lower surface geometry. The diverter heights (between their leading and trailing edges) were modified during design as the shape of the lower wing changed, with the drag of the diverter changing accordingly. Both adjoint and finite difference gradients were used during optimization. The adjoint-based gradients were found to give good direction in the design space for configurations near the starting point, but as the design approached a minimum, the finite difference gradients were found to be more accurate. Use of finite difference gradients was limited by the CPU time limit available on the Cray machines. A typical optimization run using finite difference gradients can use only 30 to 40 design variables and one optimization iteration within the 8 hour queue limit for the chosen grid size and convergence level. The efficiency afforded by the adjoint method allowed for 50-120 design variables and 5-10 optimization iterations in the 8 hour queue. Geometric perturbations to the wing and fuselage were made using the Hicks/Henne (HH) shape functions. The HH functions were distributed uniformly along the chords of the wing defining sections and lofted linearly. During single-surface design, constraints on thickness and volume at selected wing stations were imposed. Both fuselage camber and cross-sectional area distributions were permitted to change during design. The major disadvantage to the use of these functions is the inherent surface waviness produced by repeated use of such functions. Many smoothing operations were required following optimization runs to produce a configuration with reasonable smoothness. Wagner functions were also used on the wing sections but were never used on the fuselage. The Wagner functions are a family of increasingly oscillatory functions that have also been used extensively in airfoil design. The leading and trailing edge regions of the wing were designed by use of polynomial and monomial functions respectively. Twist was attempted but was abandoned because of little performance improvement available from changing the baseline twist.

Cliff, Susan E.↗

Time Variable Gravity from Local Mascon Analysis of GRACE Data

We have analyzed GRACE Level 1-B data in 2003 and assessed a new approach for extracting time variable gravity that isolates the gravity signal in both time and space. The Level-1B satellite-to-satellite range rate (KBRR) data and accelerometry are processed in daily arcs using the precise orbit products produced by the GRACE team from GPS to calibrate both the accelerometer and KBRR data. We then adjusted select components of the intersatellite baseline vector for each data segment isolated to the region of interest. Herein, we solved for mass anomalies in 45 deg x 45 deg blocks over the Amazon and the nearby Atlantic Ocean and estimate mass flux in units of cm of water over each block. We show with this approach that we can recover mass anomalies on a submonthly basis with 10 to 15 day temporal resolution. We discuss the important issues related to this solution, including the size of the mascon blocks, the weight given to the temporal and spatial constraint used to stabalize the solutions, as well as the optimal correlation in time and distance. We compare the the mascon results with solutions obtained from the more standard approach using spherical harmonics and with independent hydrology models and lake data. This technique demonstrates that sub-monthly medium wavelength mass flux phenomena are well sensed by the hyper-precise line of sight velocity data produced from GRACE.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Advances in Hyperspectral Image Classification Methods for Vegetation and Agricultural Cropland Studies

Hyperspectral data are becoming more widely available via sensors on airborne and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, as well as proximal platforms. While space-based hyperspectral data continue to be limited in availability, multiple spaceborne Earth-observing missions on traditional platforms are scheduled for launch, and companies are experimenting with small satellites for constellations to observe the Earth, as well as for planetary missions. Land cover mapping via classification is one of the most important applications of hyperspectral remote sensing and will increase in significance as time series of imagery are more readily available. However, while the narrow bands of hyperspectral data provide new opportunities for chemistry-based modeling and mapping, challenges remain. Hyperspectral data are high dimensional, and many bands are highly correlated or irrelevant for a given classification problem. For supervised classification methods, the quantity of training data is typically limited relative to the dimension of the input space. The resulting Hughes phenomenon, often referred to as the curse of dimensionality, increases potential for unstable parameter estimates, overfitting, and poor generalization of classifiers. This is particularly problematic for parametric approaches such as Gaussian maximum likelihood–based classifiers that have been the backbone of pixel-based multispectral classification methods. This issue has motivated investigation of alternatives, including regularization of the class covariance matrices, ensembles of weak classifiers, development of feature selection and extraction methods, adoption of nonparametric classifiers, and exploration of methods to exploit unlabeled samples via semi-supervised and active learning. Data sets are also quite large, motivating computationally efficient algorithms and implementations. This chapter provides an overview of the recent advances in classification methods for mapping vegetation using hyperspectral data. Three data sets that are used in the hyperspectral classification literature (e.g., Botswana Hyperion satellite data and AVIRIS airborne data over both Kennedy Space Center and Indian Pines) are described in Section 3.2 and used to illustrate methods described in the chapter. An additional high-resolution hyperspectral data set acquired by a SpecTIR sensor on an airborne platform over the Indian Pines area is included to exemplify the use of new deep learning approaches, and a multiplatform example of airborne hyperspectral data is provided to demonstrate transfer learning in hyperspectral image classification. Classical approaches for supervised and unsupervised feature selection and extraction are reviewed in Section 3.3. In particular, nonlinearities exhibited in hyperspectral imagery have motivated development of nonlinear feature extraction methods in manifold learning, which are outlined in Section 3.3.1.4. Spatial context is also important in classification of both natural vegetation with complex textural patterns and large agricultural fields with significant local variability within fields. Approaches to exploit spatial features at both the pixel level (e.g., co-occurrence–based texture and extended morphological attribute profiles [EMAPs]) and integration of segmentation approaches (e.g., HSeg) are discussed in this context in Section 3.3.2. Recently, classification methods that leverage nonparametric methods originating in the machine learning community have grown in popularity. An overview of both widely used and newly emerging approaches, including support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian mixture models, and deep learning based on convolutional neural networks is provided in Section 3.4. Strategies to exploit unlabeled samples, including active learning and metric learning, which combine feature extraction and augmentation of the pool of training samples in an active learning framework, are outlined in Section 3.5. Integration of image segmentation with classification to accommodate spatial coherence typically observed in vegetation is also explored, including as an integrated active learning system. Exploitation of multisensor strategies for augmenting the pool of training samples is investigated via a transfer learning framework in Section 3.5.1.2. Finally, we look to the future, considering opportunities soon to be provided by new paradigms, as hyperspectral sensing is becoming common at multiple scales from ground-based and airborne autonomous vehicles to manned aircraft and space-based platforms.

Pasolli, Edoardo↗

Spatial distributions of Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus from the Ediacara Member (Rawnsley Quartzite), South Australia

The spatial distribution of in situ sessile organisms, including those from the fossil record, provides information about life histories, such as possible dispersal and/or settlement mechanisms, and how taxa interact with one another and their local environments. At Nilpena Ediacara National Park (NENP), South Australia, the exquisite preservation and excavation of 33 fossiliferous bedding planes from the Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite reveals in situ communities of the Ediacara Biota. Here, the spatial distributions of three relatively common taxa, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus, occurring on excavated surfaces were analyzed using spatial point pattern analysis. Tribrachidium have a variable spatial distribution, implying that settlement or post-settlement conditions/preferences had an effect on populations. Rugoconites display aggregation, possibly related to their reproductive methods in combination with settlement location availability at the time of dispersal and/or settlement. Additionally, post-settlement environmental controls could have affected Rugoconites on other surfaces, resulting in lower populations and densities. Both Tribrachidium and Rugoconites also commonly occur as individuals or in low numbers on a number of beds, thus constraining possible reproductive strategies and environmental/substrate preferences. The distribution of Obamus is consistent with selective settlement, aggregating near conspecifics and on substrates of mature microbial mat. This dispersal process is the first example of substrate-selective dispersal among the Ediacara Biota, thus making Obamus similar to numerous modern sessile invertebrates with similar dispersal and settlement strategies. Resumen La distribución espacial de los organismos sésiles in situ, incluyendo los del registro fósil, brinda información sobre las historias de vida, tal como los posibles mecanismos de dispersión y/o asentamiento, y sobre cómo los taxones interactúan entre sí y entre sus entornos locales. En el Parque Nacional Nilpena Ediacara (NENP), Australia Meridional, la excelente preservación y excavación de 33 planos de lecho fosilífero del Miembro Ediacara de la Cuarcita Rawnsley revela comunidades in situ de la biota ediacárica. En este estudio analizamos las distribuciones espaciales de tres taxones relativamente comunes, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites y Obamus, que se encuentran en superficies excavadas mediante el análisis de patrones de puntos espaciales. Tribrachidium tiene una distribución espacial variable, lo que implica que las condiciones/preferencias durante o después del asentamiento tuvieron un efecto en las poblaciones. Rugoconites muestran agregación, posiblemente relacionado con sus métodos reproductivos en combinación con la disponibilidad de lugares de asentamiento en el momento de la dispersión y/o asentamiento. Además, los controles ambientales posteriormente al asentamiento podrían estar afectando a Rugoconites en otras superficies, lo que resultaría en poblaciones y densidades más bajas. Tanto Tribrachidium como Rugoconites ocurren como individuos en varios lechos, restringiendo las posibles estrategias reproductivas y las preferencias ambientales/de sustrato. La distribución de Obamus es consistente con un asentamiento selectivo, agregando cerca de sus congéneres y sobre sustratos de tapete microbiano maduro. Este proceso de dispersión es el primer ejemplo de dispersión selectiva de sustrato entre la biota ediacárica, lo que hace que Obamus sea similar a numerosos invertebrados sésiles modernos con estrategias similares de dispersión y asentamiento.

Phillip C. Boan↗

Techniques in Assessing Random Uncertainty of Wind Tunnel Replicate Test Data

The preferred method to determine the random uncertainty of variables of interest during wind tunnel tests is by direct analysis of replicate data. However, current information is limited to analysis of a single replicate set condition that does not consider data covariance. This paper provides additional information on considerations for quantifying random uncertainty including the evaluation and correction of replicate data covariance, the selection of replicate set conditions for the test, and the interpolation of random uncertainty at other than replicate set conditions. The analysis and techniques are supported by data from a conventional aircraft configuration test at the Oran Nicks Low-Speed Wind Tunnel and an ASME nozzle flow characterization at the Propulsion Systems Laboratory.

Uncertainty↗

Experimental research on aerostatic suspensions

Suspensions for carrying out experimental investigations, for the purpose of studying a number of problems in dynamics and stability of a suspended cylindrical body at various dynamic loads were investigated in the work. The results of the experimental investigations served as a basis for building a stand with a variable resonator. The experimental stand for suspension of cylindrical object, with a comparatively high natural free vibration frequency in the vertical direction, coinciding with the axis of the suspended object, is distinguished by the possibility of regulating the size of the clearance and is intended for carrying out preliminary experimental studies, for the purpose of selection of optimum aerostatic suspension parameters.

Bushma, L. A.↗

Tentative civil airworthiness flight criteria for powered-lift transports

Representatives of the U.S., British, French, and Canadian airworthiness authorities participated in a NASA/FAA program to formulate tentative civil airworthiness flight criteria for powered-lift transports. The ultimate limits of the flight envelope are defined by boundaries in the airspeed/path-angle plane. Angle of attack and airspeed margins applied to these ultimate limits provide protection against both atmospheric disturbances and disturbances resulting from pilot actions or system variability, but do not ensure maneuvering capability directly, as the 30% speed margin does for conventional transports. Separate criteria provide for direct demonstration of adequate capability for approach path control, flare and landing, and for go-around. Demonstration maneuvers are proposed, and appropriate abuses and failures are suggested. Taken together, these criteria should permit selection of appropriate operating points within the flight envelopes for the approach, landing, and go-around flight phases which are likely to be most critical for powered-lift aircraft.

Hynes, C. S.↗

LANDSAT (MSS): Image demographic estimations

The author has identified the following significant results. Two sets of urban test sites, one with 35 cities and one with 70 cities, were selected in the State, Sao Paulo. A high degree of colinearity (0.96) was found between urban and areal measurements taken from aerial photographs and LANDSAT MSS imagery. High coefficients were observed when census data were regressed against aerial information (0.95) and LANDSAT data (0.92). The validity of population estimations was tested by regressing three urban variables, against three classes of cities. Results supported the effectiveness of LANDSAT to estimate large city populations with diminishing effectiveness as urban areas decrease in size.

Dejesusparada, N.↗

A real time Pegasus propulsion system model for VSTOL piloted simulation evaluation

A Pegasus-Harrier propulsion system is selected as a baseline for developing mathematical modeling and simulation techniques for VSTOL. Initially, static and dynamic propulsion system characteristics are modeled in detail to form a nonlinear aerothermodynamic digital computer simulation of a Pegasus engine. From this high fidelity simulation, a real-time propulsion model is formulated by applying a piecewise linear state variable methodology. A hydromechanical and water injection control system is also simulated. It is noted that the real-time dynamic model includes the detail and flexibility required for evaluating critical control parameters and propulsion component limits over a limited flight envelope.

Mihaloew, J. R.↗

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Jan, Darrell L.↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 4: Summary report to phase 1 respondents

Phase 1 of a 4 part study was undertaken studying the use of scientific and technical information (STI) by U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists. Specific attention was paid to institutional and socioeconomic variables and to the step-by-step process of information gathering used by the respondents. Data were collected by means of three self administered mail-back questionnaires. The approximately 34,000 members of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) served as the study population. More than 65 percent of the randomly selected respondents returned the questionnaires in each of the three groups. Respondents relied more heavily upon informal sources of information than formal sources and turned to librarians and other technical information specialists only when they did not obtain results via informal means or their own formal searches.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

[NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 5:] Summary report to phase 1 respondents including frequency distributions

Phase 1 of a four part study was undertaken to investigate the use of scientific and technical information (STI) by U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists. Specific attention was paid to institutional and sociometric variables and to the step-by-step process of information gathering used by the respondents. Data were collected by means of three self-administered mail-back questionnaires. The approximately 34,000 members of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics served as the study population. More than 65 percent of the randomly selected respondants returned the questionnaires in each of the three groups. Respondants relied more heavily on informal sources of information than formal sources and turned to librarians and other technical information specialists only when they did not obtain results via informal means or their own formal searches. The report includes frequency distributions for the questions.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

The Implications of Encoder/Modulator/ Phased Array Designs for Future Broadband LEO Communications

In this paper we summarize the effects of modulation and channel coding on the design of wide angle scan, broadband, phased army antennas. In the paper we perform several trade studies. First, we investigate the amplifier back-off requirement as a function of variability of modulation envelope. Specifically, we contrast constant and non-constant envelope modulations, as well as single and multiple carrier schemes. Additionally, we address the issues an(f concerns of using pulse shaping filters with the above modulation types. Second, we quantify the effects of beam steering on the quality of data, recovery using selected modulation techniques. In particular, we show that the frequency response of the array introduces intersymbol interference for broadband signals and that the mode of operation for the beam steering controller may introduce additional burst or random errors. Finally, we show that the encoder/modulator design must be performed in conjunction with the phased array antenna design.

Vanderaar, Mark↗

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment(BATSE)Earth Occultation Catalog of Low-Energy Gamma-Ray Sources. Short title: BATSE Earth Occultation Catalog v2.0

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE), aboard the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), provided a record of the low-energy gamma-ray sky (approx. 20-1000 keV) between 1991 April and 2000 May (9.1y). BATSE monitored the high energy sky using the Earth occultation technique (EOT) for point sources whose emission extended for times on the order of the CGRO orbital period (approx. 92m) or greater. Using the EOT to extract flux - 2 - information, a catalog of sources using data from the BATSE large area detectors has been prepared. The first part of the catalog consists of results from the all-sky monitoring of 58 sources, mostly Galactic, with intrinsic variability on timescales of hours to years. For these sources, we have included tables of flux and spectral data, and outburst times for transients. Light curves (or flux histories) covering the entire nine mission are being placed on the world wide web. We then performed a deep-sampling of these 58 objects, plus a selection of 121 more objects, combining data from the entire 9.ly BATSE dataset. Source types considered were primarily accreting binaries, but a small number of representative active galaxies, X-ray-emitting stars, and supernova remnants were also included. The sample represents a compilation of sources monitored and/or discovered with BATSE and other high energy instruments between 1991 and 2000, known sources taken from the HEAO 1 A-4 (Levine et al. 1984) and Macomb and Gehrels (1999) catalogs. The deep sample results include definite detections of 82 objects and possible detections of 36 additional objects. The definite detections spanned three classes of sources: accreting black hole and neutron star binaries, active galaxies and supernova remnants. The average fluxes measured for the fourth class, the X-ray emitting stars, were below the confidence limit for definite detection. Flux data for the deep sample are presented in four energy bands: 20-40, 40-70, 70-160, and 160-430 keV. The limiting average flux level (9.1 y) for the sample varies from 3.5 to 20 mCrab (5delta) between 20 and 430 keV, depending on systematic error, which in turn is primarily dependent on the sky location. To strengthen the credibility of detection of weaker sources (approx.5-25 mCrab), we generated Earth occultation images, searched for periodic behavior using FFT and epoch folding methods, and critically evaluated the energy-dependent emission in the four flux bands. The deep sample results are intended for guidance in performing future all-sky surveys or pointed observations in the hard X-ray and low-energy gamma-ray band, as well as more detailed studies with the BATSE EOT.

Harmon, B. A.↗

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

Koontz, Steve↗

Aerodynamic Optimization of Rocket Control Surface Geometry Using Cartesian Methods and CAD Geometry

Aerodynamic design is an iterative process involving geometry manipulation and complex computational analysis subject to physical constraints and aerodynamic objectives. A design cycle consists of first establishing the performance of a baseline design, which is usually created with low-fidelity engineering tools, and then progressively optimizing the design to maximize its performance. Optimization techniques have evolved from relying exclusively on designer intuition and insight in traditional trial and error methods, to sophisticated local and global search methods. Recent attempts at automating the search through a large design space with formal optimization methods include both database driven and direct evaluation schemes. Databases are being used in conjunction with surrogate and neural network models as a basis on which to run optimization algorithms. Optimization algorithms are also being driven by the direct evaluation of objectives and constraints using high-fidelity simulations. Surrogate methods use data points obtained from simulations, and possibly gradients evaluated at the data points, to create mathematical approximations of a database. Neural network models work in a similar fashion, using a number of high-fidelity database calculations as training iterations to create a database model. Optimal designs are obtained by coupling an optimization algorithm to the database model. Evaluation of the current best design then gives either a new local optima and/or increases the fidelity of the approximation model for the next iteration. Surrogate methods have also been developed that iterate on the selection of data points to decrease the uncertainty of the approximation model prior to searching for an optimal design. The database approximation models for each of these cases, however, become computationally expensive with increase in dimensionality. Thus the method of using optimization algorithms to search a database model becomes problematic as the number of design variables is increased.

Nelson, Andrea↗

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗