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A Second Law Based Unstructured Finite Volume Procedure for Generalized Flow Simulation

An unstructured finite volume procedure has been developed for steady and transient thermo-fluid dynamic analysis of fluid systems and components. The procedure is applicable for a flow network consisting of pipes and various fittings where flow is assumed to be one dimensional. It can also be used to simulate flow in a component by modeling a multi-dimensional flow using the same numerical scheme. The flow domain is discretized into a number of interconnected control volumes located arbitrarily in space. The conservation equations for each control volume account for the transport of mass, momentum and entropy from the neighboring control volumes. In addition, they also include the sources of each conserved variable and time dependent terms. The source term of entropy equation contains entropy generation due to heat transfer and fluid friction. Thermodynamic properties are computed from the equation of state of a real fluid. The system of equations is solved by a hybrid numerical method which is a combination of simultaneous Newton-Raphson and successive substitution schemes. The paper also describes the application and verification of the procedure by comparing its predictions with the analytical and numerical solution of several benchmark problems.

Majumdar, Alok↗

Visualizing 2D Probability Distributions from Satellite Image-Derived Data

Creating maps of biophysical and geophysical variables using Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite image data is an important component of Earth science. These 2D maps have a single value at every location and standard techniques are used to visualize them. Current tools fall short, however, when it is necessary to describe a distribution of values at each location. Distributions may represent a frequency of occurrence over time, frequency of occurrence from multiple runs of an ensemble forecast or possible values from an uncertainty model. 'Distribution data sets' are described, then a case study is presented to visualize such 2D distributions. Distribution data sets are different from multivariate data sets in the sense that the values are for a single variable instead of multiple variables. Our case study data consists of multiple realizations of percent forest cover, generated using a geostatistical technique that combines ground measurements and satellite imagery to model uncertainty about forest cover. We present several approaches for analyzing and visualizing such data sets. The first is a pixel-wise analysis of the probability density functions for the 2D image while the second is an analysis of features identified within the image. Such pixel-wise and feature-wise views will give Earth scientists a more complete understanding of distribution data sets.

Kao, David↗

Latitude-Dependent Effects in the Stellar Wind of Eta Carinae

The Homunculus reflection nebula around eta Carinae provides the rare opportunity to observe the spectrum of a star from more than one direction. In the case of eta Car, the nebula's geometry is known well enough to infer how wind profiles vary with latitude. We present STIS spectra of several positions in the Homunculus, showing directly that eta Car has an aspherical and axisymmetric stellar wind. P Cygni absorption in Balmer lines depends on latitude, with relatively high velocities and strong absorption near the polar axis. Stronger absorption at high latitudes is surprising, and it suggests higher mass flux toward the poles, perhaps resulting from equatorial gravity darkening on a rotating star. Reflected profiles of He I lines are more puzzling, and offer clues to eta Car's wind geometry and ionization structure. During eta Car's high-excitation state in March 2000, the wind had a fast, dense polar wind, with higher ionization at low latitudes. Older STIS data obtained since 1998 reveal that this global stellar-wind geometry changes during eta Car's 5.5 year cycle, and may suggest that this star s spectroscopic events are shell ejections. Whether or not a companion star triggers these outbursts remains ambiguous. The most dramatic changes in the wind occur at low latitudes, while the dense polar wind remains relatively undisturbed during an event. The apparent stability of the polar wind also supports the inferred bipolar geometry. The wind geometry and its variability have critical implications for understanding the 5.5 year cycle and long-term variability, but do not provide a clear alternative to the binary hypothesis for generating eta Car s X-rays.

Smith, Nathan↗

Hybrid Turbine Electric Vehicle

Hybrid electric power trains may revolutionize today's ground passenger vehicles by significantly improving fuel economy and decreasing emissions. The NASA Lewis Research Center is working with industry, universities, and Government to develop and demonstrate a hybrid electric vehicle. Our partners include Bowling Green State University, the Cleveland Regional Transit Authority, Lincoln Electric Motor Division, the State of Ohio's Department of Development, and Teledyne Ryan Aeronautical. The vehicle will be a heavy class urban transit bus offering double the fuel economy of today's buses and emissions that are reduced to 1/10th of the Environmental Protection Agency's standards. At the heart of the vehicle's drive train is a natural-gas-fueled engine. Initially, a small automotive engine will be tested as a baseline. This will be followed by the introduction of an advanced gas turbine developed from an aircraft jet engine. The engine turns a high-speed generator, producing electricity. Power from both the generator and an onboard energy storage system is then provided to a variable-speed electric motor attached to the rear drive axle. An intelligent power-control system determines the most efficient operation of the engine and energy storage system.

Viterna, Larry A.↗

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Hill, Monika C.↗

Nuclear Thermal Rocket (Ntr) Propulsion: A Proven Game-Changing Technology for Future Human Exploration Missions

The NTR represents the next evolutionary step in high performance rocket propulsion. It generates high thrust and has a specific impulse (Isp) of approx.900 seconds (s) or more V twice that of today s best chemical rockets. The technology is also proven. During the previous Rover and NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Applications) nuclear rocket programs, 20 rocket reactors were designed, built and ground tested. These tests demonstrated: (1) a wide range of thrust; (2) high temperature carbide-based nuclear fuel; (3) sustained engine operation; (4) accumulated lifetime; and (5) restart capability V all the requirements needed for a human mission to Mars. Ceramic metal cermet fuel was also pursued, as a backup option. The NTR also has significant growth and evolution potential. Configured as a bimodal system, it can generate electrical power for the spacecraft. Adding an oxygen afterburner nozzle introduces a variable thrust and Isp capability and allows bipropellant operation. In NASA s recent Mars Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0 study, the NTR was selected as the preferred propulsion option because of its proven technology, higher performance, lower launch mass, simple assembly and mission operations. In contrast to other advanced propulsion options, NTP requires no large technology scale-ups. In fact, the smallest engine tested during the Rover program V the 25,000 lbf (25 klbf) Pewee engine is sufficient for human Mars missions when used in a clustered engine arrangement. The Copernicus crewed spacecraft design developed in DRA 5.0 has significant capability and a human exploration strategy is outlined here that uses Copernicus and its key components for precursor near Earth asteroid (NEA) and Mars orbital missions prior to a Mars landing mission. Initially, the basic Copernicus vehicle can enable reusable 1-year round trip human missions to candidate NEAs like 1991 JW and Apophis in the late 2020 s to check out vehicle systems. Afterwards, the Copernicus spacecraft and its 2 key components, now configured as an Earth Return Vehicle / propellant tanker, would be used for a short round trip (approx.18 - 20 months)/short orbital stay (60 days) Mars / Phobos survey mission in 2033 using a split mission approach. The paper also discusses NASA s current Foundational Technology Development activities and its pre-decisional plans for future system-level Technology Demonstrations that include ground testing a small (approx.7.5 klbf) scalable NTR before the decade is out with a flight test shortly thereafter.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

Overview and Initial Results of SAND-E: Semi-Autonomous Navigation for Detrital Environments

Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and automated terrain analysis for science and navigation are new technologies for planetary exploration. The Mars Helicopter will fly with the Mars2020 rover, the Dragonfly quadcopter will explore Titan, and Soil Properties and Object Classification (SPOC) software will be used for path planning and navigation on the Mars2020 rover. Using an Argo J5 rover instrumented with stereo cameras and Autonomous Soil Assessment System (ASAS) software, and an off the shelf quadcopter, SAND-E tested the use of automated terrain analysis and UAS data for science operations in a Mars-analog environment in Iceland during July of 2019. Scientifically, we sought to determine changes in the physical and chemical properties of sediments along a glacial-fluvial-aeolian transport pathway. Operationally, we tested rover mission-like scenarios that included UAS images and classified terrain images. Here, we present the initial results for both the operations and science elements of the study. Site Selection: A goal of SAND-E is examine sorting and alteration of sediments in fluvial and aeolian environments in both mineral-dominated and glass-dominated basaltic settings. During the first year of the project we focused on a mineral-dominated environment. Selection of the location was based on prior publications that indicated our selected region had a greater abundance of crystalline sediments than other areas fluvial-aeolian settings in Iceland. Other criteria included the presence of both fluvial and aeolian landforms along a transport pathway such that the sediments in transport could be linked to their source rocks. We chose the Skjaldbreidauhraun glacial outwash plain, which sits at the base of Thórisjökull glacier. The site is 30 km north of Thingvellir National Park and ~2 hours from Reykjavik. The outwash plain is fed by two small catchments that drain from the base of the glacier and cut through hyaloclastite and shield volcano bedrock. The drainage progresses from steep alluvial fans near the glacier into a low-sloping fluvial braidplain that becomes confined by the Skjaldbreidur shield volcano and creates a shallow canyon cut into lava bedrock. The fluvial system was a typical braided alluvial environment composed pebble- and cobble-bedded longitudinal bars and sandy channel beds. The river remained active and fluctuated in response to diurnal runoff cycles near the glacier before disappearing into the sandy substrate downstream. The high concentration of suspended sediment in the river was evident by the cloudy water and the silt and clay-sized sediments that draped the channel beds after abandonment and created playas in the lowest sloping areas of the catchment. The entire fluvial system was affected by the winds generated by frontal systems and katabatic flows descending the glacier. This resulted in the formation of aeolian lag deposits and a wind-deflation plain where the fluvial system was not active. Wind ripples and drifts formed in abandoned fluvial channels from aeolian reworking of the sand-sized fluvial sediments. The silt- and clay-sized sediments found in fluvial channels, bar tops, and playas generated dust plumes during high wind events. Our operation sought to capture the variability in this system by sampling from the range of fluvial and aeolian features 6.3 km (proximal), 11.3 km (medial), and 14.4 km (distal) along the river from its origin at the base of glacier.

Ewing, R. C.↗

Ag isotopic and chalcophile element evolution of the terrestrial and martian mantles during accretion: new constraints from Bi, Pd, and Ag metal-silicate partitioning.

The Earth’s timing of accretion and acquisition of moderately volatile compounds is uncertain. Hafnium-W and Mn-Cr isotopic data can bracket the timing of early planetary differentiation and core formation. The Ag-Pd system has also been utilized but its application has been limited by a lack of high pressure and temperature metal-silicate partitioning for Pd and Ag. Be-cause Ag (and Bi) are volatile chalcophile siderophile elements, understanding their early distribution can constrain the origin of volatile elements in differentiated bodies and planets. Unfortunately, neither Ag or Bi have been studied across the wide range of pressure and temperature conditions that are relevant to accretion and core-mantle differentiation. Here, new high-pressure and temperature multi-anvil metal-silicate equilibrium experiments for Bi and Ag have been carried out at conditions relevant to planetary accretion and metal silicate differentiation that allow a more refined and complete understanding of element partitioning during core formation. The new metal-silicate partitioning data utilized to predict the distributions of Bi, Pd, and Ag at conditions of accretion for Earth and Mars and show that the Pd/Ag ratio is significantly fractionated during accretion, allowing for the production of detectable 107Ag anomalies produced while 107Pd (half life = 6.5 M.y.) was still extant. Application of the new partitioning results to Earth shows that D(Bi) and D(Ag) (D = metal/silicate concentration ratio) are lowered due to the effect of pressure and Si alloyed in the metallic liquid, resulting in higher predicted mantle Bi and Ag abundances than in the bulk silicate Earth (BSE), as well as high and variable Pd/Ag. The unradiogenic Ag isotopic composition of the BSE could have been generated by early accretion of volatile-poor (high Pd/Ag) precursors, followed by later accretion of volatile–rich (low Pd/Ag) material, in agreement with earlier studies of Pd-Ag and Mn-Cr (Schönbächler et al., 2010). However, these main accretion phases would have to be followed by segregation of a sulfide liquid (at least 1.5% of magma ocean) at high pressures (>30 GPa), to explain the PUM Bi, Pd, and Ag, as well as Au, Pt, Cu and Ni concentrations as proposed previously. If the early accreted bulk Earth was volatile depleted with high Pd/Ag ratios, portions of the mantle may contain ancient domains that developed positive 107Ag isotopic anomalies (as also argued by noble gases, Nd, W, and Os isotopes). In comparison, Bi, Pd, and Ag concentrations in the martian mantle could have been set by simple metal-silicate equilibrium. Mars accreted and differentiated relatively rapidly, while also developing a deep magma ocean with a high Pd/Ag ratio that could have evolved positive 107Ag anomalies, in contrast to Earth. Measurements on shergottites may reveal these predicted Ag isotopic anomalies.

accretion↗

Evaluating the Impact of Agricultural Soil NOx Emissions on Air Quality Using Advanced Satellite, Ground-based, and Model Data

Soil moisture can also influence the concentration of atmospheric trace gases by moderating the emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) from agricultural fields. Human activities can play an important role in controlling the available soil moisture depending on irrigation demand and agricultural management. To further complicate matters, nitrogen fertilizer use has also been found to be a significant source of NOx emissions in agricultural areas. In fact, some of the highest emissions have been reported from fertilized soils in high-temperature agricultural regions, such as the Imperial Valley of California. Since NO2 is an important precursor to ozone formation in the troposphere, which is a leading cause of premature death in humans, it is critical to understand how natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to NOx emissions in these areas. O3 pollution is also a growing threat to global food security due to its detrimental impacts on crop production. This work uses a suite of satellite, ground-based, and model data to investigate how agricultural soil NOx emissions from natural (rainfall) and anthropogenic factors (irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer) govern air quality over California. We evaluate the capabilities of using SMAP retrievals and SMAP Land Information System (LIS) output for monitoring irrigation activities over the major agricultural areas of California by conducting intensive analyses of soil moisture and precipitation data. High-resolution trace gas observations from the new generation TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) sensor are used to characterize and monitor the variability of trace gases and air quality conditions associated with soil NOx emissions. We also synthesize satellite, ground-based, and agriculture data to estimate the separate contributions from rainfall, irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizer practices on soil NOx emissions and associated air quality conditions. Finally, unprecedented hourly trace gas retrievals from the NASA Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) geostationary satellite sensor are used to monitor the diurnal evolution of NO2 and O3 concentrations from soil NOx emissions.

Aaron R Naeger↗

Importance of Internal Variability for Climate Model Assessment

Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the process of building realistic climate models and developing accurate future projections. However, in many cases, models do not match historical observations, particularly on regional scales. If there is a mismatch between modeled and observed climate features, should we necessarily conclude that our models are deficient? Using several illustrative examples, we emphasize that internal variability can easily lead to marked differences between the basic features of the model and observed climate, even when decades of model and observed data are available. This can appear as an apparent failure of models to capture regional trends or changes in global teleconnections, or simulation of extreme events. Despite a large body of literature on the impact of internal variability on climate, this acknowledgment has not yet penetrated many model evaluation activities, particularly for regional climate. We emphasize that using a single or small ensemble of simulations to conclude that a climate model is in error can lead to premature conclusions on model fidelity. A large ensemble of multidecadal simulations is therefore needed to properly sample internal climate variability in order to robustly identify model deficiencies and convincingly demonstrate progress between generations of climate models.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

(ODIN): An Open Source, Low-Latency Data Integration & Visualization Framework for the NASA System Wide Safety Project's Disaster Response Safety Demonstration Series

The Open Data Integration Framework (ODIN) is an open source, low latency data integration and visualization framework (https://github.com/NASARace/race-odin) developed under NASA’s System WideSafety Program to demonstrate new safety capabilities designed to improve US airspace operations. Safety demonstrations are a set of increasingly complex (from public safety perspective) disaster response scenarios under which air systems must operate with increased capacity and include: 1) Wildland fire response, 2) Hurricane relief and recovery, 4) Emergency medical delivery via UAS and 4) Urban disaster relief. To accommodate disaster response, ODIN is field deployable and can scale on one or more multi-core, commodity laptops operating with full to limited or intermittent internet connectivity, conditions likely encountered during operations. ODIN runs as webserver with local, persistent data storage to serve either public or a secured, ad hoc network (e.g., an incident command post). The current released ODIN, ODIN-Fire is tailored for wildland fire management incorporating information on satellite overpasses with links to the near real-time data and imagery from the respective agencies. Included are winds data, an important variable for emergency responders and airspace operations, and high-resolution wind forecasts generated by super-computing resources and ingested into ODIN. As an open-source project, ODIN has attracted interest from multiple entities. We will show how 1) a commercial field instrument and data provider uses ODIN to help users visualize, publish and integrate their in-situ sensor network data and 2) ODIN’s capabilities to ingest, integrate and display near-real time satellite data with air traffic and a USFS winds forecast model used in fire response and post-fire assessment. Within NASA ODIN demonstrated novel, near terminal airspace safety capabilities for a project close-out event and previously it monitored the national airspace in real-time to meet an agency milestone. ODIN is presently under development for the anticipated hurricane relief and response demonstration notionally scheduled for the 2025-27 time frame and is available from NASA's github at the above link.

Aeronautics↗

A Modular Conjugate Heat Transfer Optimization Framework for Thermal Management of Electric Aircraft

Conjugate heat transfer (CHT) analysis and optimization is a powerful method for improving thermal management, as it simultaneously resolves the temperature distribution in both fluid and solid domains. This paper presents a modular, discrete adjoint-based CHT optimization capability integrated within the OpenMDAO/MPhys framework. A unique feature of the proposed framework is its flexibility to extend to multidisciplinary optimization, including aero-structural-thermal applications. The fluid domain is modeled using a finite-volume Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver, and the solid domain with a conduction heat transfer solver. A mixed Neumann-Dirichlet boundary condition is developed to enable full submersion of the solid geometry within the fluid domain, while ensuring consistent temperature and heat flux coupling at the CHT interface. Gradient-based optimization is performed; the gradients are efficiently computed using the discrete adjoint solvers implemented in DAFoam. To demonstrate the method, this paper considers two cases related to electric aircraft thermal management: a U-bend heat exchanger and an actively cooled battery pack. The U-bend case aims to minimize pressure loss while maximizing heat flux by changing the pipe geometry. The optimized design reduces pressure loss by 52.7% and increases total heat flux by 2.3%. In the battery pack case, a 3-by-3 cell configuration is cooled by ambient airflow, with constant heat generation prescribed in the cells. The battery casing shape serves as the design variable, and the objective function is a weighted sum of pressure loss and pack weight, subject to a maximum temperature constraint. The optimized design achieves a 44.6% reduction in pressure loss and a 1.5% reduction in weight, while satisfying the thermal constraint. To ensure the reliability of the optimized designs, this study validates coarse-mesh, steady-state predictions against fine-mesh unsteady simulations, demonstrating consistency within acceptable errors. This work demonstrates the potential of the developed framework to enable rapid, high-fidelity design of thermal management systems for electric aircraft.

heat transfer↗

Geological Thermal Energy Storage Using Solar Thermal and Carnot Batteries: Techno-Economic Analysis: Preprint

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal energy storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. In this article, we describe a techno-economic model that has been developed to evaluate GeoTES systems. The models are developed by combining the output of specialist models which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models are developed so that the performance can be evaluated at each hour of the year. GeoTES can be charged with two different energy sources: (1) concentrating solar thermal and (2) renewable electricity using heat pumps (henceforth known as a "Carnot Battery"). The stored thermal energy can be used to generate electricity and - uniquely - also directly produce heat that can be used by industrial processes. Furthermore, Carnot-Battery-GeoTES can also be used to form a cold storage reservoir. Preliminary results that quantify the technical and economic performance of these two GeoTES systems are presented.

carnot battery↗

Unlocking the price

To help balance load and power generation that ensue from the electrification of transportation and the increased connection of variable power sources to the grid, ABB has developed an RL-based dynamic price model for EV charging with the required flexibility to respond to changing grid conditions.

Suryanarayana, Harish↗

NASA Leveraging Commercial Communication Ground Stations for Small Satellites

The Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program at NASA has reorganized its operations portfolio into two networks: the Deep Space Network and the new Near Space Network (NSN). With this reorganization, NASA can begin transforming to 100% direct-to-Earth commercial communications services for missions in the near-Earth region. NASA’s leveraging of commercial direct-to-Earth ground stations offers several benefits for the small satellite community, including lower cost, greater coverage, and increased technology infusion. In the fall of 2020, SCaN announced their intention to rely primarily on industry-provided communications services for missions close to Earth by 2030. Commercial services are one way to infuse new technology into the ground station network without requiring an investment from NASA. Digital Video Broadcast, Satellite Second Generation (DVB-S2) is one example of a current technology. When combined with variable coding and modulation (VCM), the system automatically optimizes the data rate based on signal performance, significantly increasing total downlink data volume without an increase in the spacecraft effective isotropic radiated power (EIRP). There are several commercial service providers, including Amazon Web Service (AWS) Ground Station (AGS) and the KSATLITE ground stations that support SmallSat missions using DVB-S2 waveforms for downlinks. This paper identifies some commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) CubeSat/SmallSat DVB-S2 X-band and Ka-band radios. Overall, NASA’s increased dependence on commercial direct-to-Earth ground stations is a significant benefit for the small satellite community.

Space Communications↗

Automation of FARM from Alpha Phase to Beta Phase

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework and the RAVEN plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) are used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES, by respecting the limits on the production variables and the corresponding rates of variation (explicit constraints). Besides, there are other process variables whose evolution needs to be bounded to avoid damaging the components (e.g., condensers, heat exchangers, steam generators, etc.) or degrading the process efficiency (e.g., electrolysis in the hydrogen production process). To avoid violating these latter limits (implicit constraints), a proof-of-concept HERON validator based on Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM-Alpha) was developed by Argonne National Laboratory in January 2021. This FARM-Alpha validator calculates the evolution of process variables on whom the implicit constraints are placed, and then provides feedback to HERON dispatcher to adjust the power setpoints of three IES components, i.e., Balance of Plant, Secondary Energy Source, and Thermal Energy Storage, so as to meet both the explicit and implicit constraints. FARM-Alpha was designed to assess the performance of FARM as a HERON validator only, i.e., the list of components and implicit operational constraints were hard-coded within the source code. The lack of flexibility of the corresponding software structure does not allow the deployment in production environment. This report describes the development and the implementation of an enhanced version of the FARM-based validator (FARM-Beta), which ensures more flexibility for the end user in modeling multiple IES configurations and scenarios. Several test cases of the power dispatch problem were then selected to demonstrate the capabilities offered by FARM-beta. The test cases illustrate the efficiency of the closed-loop optimization scheme and the capability to calculate set-point trajectories satisfying both explicit and implicit constraints.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bubble Detachment in Variable Gravity Under the Influence of a Non-Uniform Electric Field

The objective of the study reported in this paper is to investigate the effects of variable, reduced gravity on the formation and detachment behavior of individual air bubbles under the influence of a non-uniform electric field. For this purpose, variable gravity experiments were carried out in parabolic nights. The non-uniform electric field was generated by a spherical electrode and a plate electrode. The effect of the magnitude of the non-uniform electric field and gravity level on bubble formation, development and detachment at an orifice was investigated. An image processing code was developed that allows the measurement of bubble volume, dimensions and contact angle at detachment. The results of this research can be used to explore the possibility of enhancing boiling heat transfer in the variable and low gravity environments by substituting the buoyancy force with a force induced by the electric field. The results of experiments and measurements indicate that the level of gravity significantly affects bubble shape, size and frequency. The electric field magnitude also influences bubble detachment, however, its impact is not as profound as that of variable gravity for the range of electric field magnitudes investigated in the present study.

Chang, Shinan↗

Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems

In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual mean, but substantial interannual variations exist. Dynamical models exhibit subpar predictability in this region, but the limits of their skills are not well established. Here, we identify the tropical and extratropical forcings that explain ~75% of area-averaged seasonal variability in CSWA winter precipitation. Tropical forcing comes from the indirect El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pathway, the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean precipitation variability. This mode is coupled with ENSO-related Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. A direct ENSO influence on CSWA does not extend beyond its Indian Ocean connection. Extratropical forcing comes from a large-scale mode of internal atmospheric variability. The spatial structure, variability of tropical forcing, and teleconnection with CSWA winter precipitation are skillfully depicted in two seasonal forecasting systems: the fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR). Extratropical forcing’s spatial structure is also produced skillfully in the two modelling systems; however, the representation of its interannual variability and teleconnection requires improvement. While SEAS5 displays skill in representing extratropical forcing influence on CSWA winter precipitation and marginal skill in reproducing interannual variability, SPEAR has negligible ability in both areas. Consequently, these models have limited predictive skills over CSWA in winter. While improvements in representing extratropical forcing may be inherently limited as it arises from internal atmospheric variability, further research is needed to establish its predictability limits fully.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗