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At least 1,225 records · Page 68
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Industry-Specific Freight Generation Model

According to Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the U.S. transportation system handled 14,329 million ton-miles of freight per day in 2020. Understanding the generation of these freight shipments is crucial for transportation researchers, planners, and policymakers to design and plan for a more efficient and connected freight transportation system. Traditionally, the freight generation modeling has been based on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, although more advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been evaluated and proven to have excellent performance in various transportation applications in recent years. Furthermore, one modeling approach applied for one industry might not always be applicable for another as their freight generation logics can be quite different. The objective of this study is to apply and evaluate alternative ML algorithms in the estimation of freight generation for each of 45 industry types. Seven alternative ML algorithms, along with the base OLS regression, were evaluated and compared. In addition, the study considered different combinations of variables in both the original and logarithmic form as well as hyperparameters of those ML algorithms in the model selection for each industry type. The results showed statistically significant improvements in the root mean square error reduction by the alternative ML algorithms over the OLS for over 80% of cases. The study suggests utilizing the alternative ML algorithms can reduce the root mean square error by about 30%, depending on industry types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Llovel, W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗
NASA NTRS1974

High power ac/dc variable R dynamic electrical load simulator

A study program was undertaken to investigate various concepts and techniques for identifying and simulating both the steady-state and dynamic characteristics of electrical loads for use during integrated system test and evaluation. The development of hardware capable of providing the simulation capability is discussed. A general purpose simulator was developed with the capability of realizing a variety of models where element values were discretely variable. The different models, each corresponding to real spacecraft equipment, are set up manually for each case by suitable switching and patching. The models are capable of duplicating the dynamic and steady-state response of real loads at full power.

Joncas, K. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interaction between cloud–radiation, atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics based on observational data from GoAmazon 2014/15 and a cloud-resolving model

Observational meteorological data from the field experiment GoAmazon 2014/15 and data from numerical simulations with the cloud-resolving model (CRM) called the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) are used to study the interaction between the cloudiness–radiation as well as the atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics variables for a site located in the central Amazon region (–3.2°S, –60.6°W) during the wet and dry periods. The main aims are to (a) analyze the temporal series of the integrated cloud fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux as well as (b) to determine the relationship between the integrated cloud fraction, radiative fluxes and large-scale variable anomalies as a function of the previous day's average. The temporal series of the integrated cloud fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux from SAM simulations showed physical consistency with the observations from GoAmazon 2014/15. Shallow and deep convection clouds show to have a meaningful impact on radiation fluxes in the Amazon region during wet and dry periods. Anomalies of large-scale variables (relative to the previous day's average) are physically associated with cloud formation, evolution and dissipation. SAM consistently simulated these results, where the cloud fraction vertical profile shows a pattern very close to the observed data (cloud type). Additionally, the integrated cloud fraction and large-scale variable anomalies, as a function of the previous day's average, have a good correlation. These results suggest that the memory of the large-scale dynamics from the previous day can be used to estimate the cloud fraction as well as the water content, which is a variable of the cloud itself. In general, the SAM satisfactorily simulated the interaction between cloud–radiation as well as dynamic and thermodynamic variables of the atmosphere during the periods of this study, being able to obtain atmospheric variables that are impossible to obtain in an observational way.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding effects of printhead geometry in aerosol jet printing

Aerosol jet printing offers a versatile, high-resolution digital patterning capability broadly relevant to flexible and printed electronic systems. Despite its promise and numerous demonstrations, the theoretical principles driving process outputs have not been thoroughly explored. In this study, a custom-built, modular printing system is developed to provide a head-to-head comparison of two print nozzle geometries to better understand the technology. Print resolution data from a range of process parameters are analyzed using a support vector machine framework. The linear deposition rate is identified as a key variable, which can confound careful studies of printing performance. Taking this into account, a clear difference is observed between the printheads, corresponding to a difference in resolution of 57% ± 11% under typical conditions. Models to understand differences in aerodynamic and mass transport effects identify enhanced drying within the NanoJet printhead as a likely cause of this difference. Overall, this study provides improved understanding of the aerosol jet printing process, including valuable insight to inform process optimization, robust data analysis, ink formulation, and printer geometric design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Worldwide Population Genomics Reveal Long-Term Stability of the Mitochondrial Genome Architecture in a Keystone Marine Plant

Mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) of flowering plants are composed of multiple chromosomes. Recombination within and between the mitochondrial chromosomes may generate diverse DNA molecules termed isoforms. The isoform copy number and composition can be dynamic within and among individual plants due to uneven replication and homologous recombination. Nonetheless, despite their functional importance, the level of mitogenome conservation within species remains understudied. Whether the ontogenetic variation translates to evolution of mitogenome composition over generations is currently unknown. Here we show that the mitogenome composition of the seagrass Zostera marina is conserved among worldwide populations that diverged ca. 350,000 years ago. Using long-read sequencing, we characterized the Z. marina mitochondrial genome and inferred the repertoire of recombination-induced configurations. To characterize the mitochondrial genome architecture worldwide and study its evolution, we examined the mitogenome in Z. marina meristematic region sampled in 16 populations from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Our results reveal a striking similarity in the isoform relative copy number, indicating a high conservation of the mitogenome composition among distantly related populations and within the plant germline, despite a notable variability during individual ontogenesis. Our study supplies a link between observations of dynamic mitogenomes at the level of plant individuals and long-term mitochondrial evolution.

(sub)stoichiometric shifting↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spectral variability of a sample of extreme variability quasars and implications for the MgII broad-line region

We present new Gemini/GMOS optical spectroscopy of 16 extreme variability quasars (EVQs) that dimmed bymore than 1.5mag in the g band between the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey epochs (separated by a few years in the quasar rest frame). These EVQs are selected from quasars in the SDSS Stripe 82 region, covering a redshift range of 0.5 < z < 2.1. Nearly half of these EVQs brightened significantly (by more than 0.5 mag in the g band) in a few years after reaching their previous faintest state, and some EVQs showed rapid (non-blazar) variations of greater than 1-2 mag on time-scales of only months. To increase sample statistics, we use a supplemental sample of 33 EVQs with multi-epoch spectra from SDSS that cover the broad Mg II lambda 2798 line. Leveraging on the large dynamic range in continuum variability between the multi-epoch spectra, we explore the associated variations in the broad MgII line, whose variability properties have not been well studied before. The broad MgII flux varies in the same direction as the continuum flux, albeit with a smaller amplitude, which indicates at least some portion of Mg II is reverberating to continuum changes. However, the full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of Mg II does not vary accordingly as continuum changes for most objects in the sample, in contrast to the case of the broad Balmer lines. Using the width of broad MgII to estimate the black hole mass with single epoch spectra therefore introduces a luminosity-dependent bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Variability in Hoffmann and tendon reflexes in healthy male subjects

There is a time dependent decrease in amplitude of H- and T-reflexes during Zero-G exposure and subsequently an increase in the amplitude of the H-reflex 2-4 hours after return to a 1-G environment. These alterations have been attributed to the adaptation of the human neurosensory system to gravity. The Hoffman reflex (H-reflex) is an acknowledged method to determine the integrity of the monosynaptic reflex arc. However deep tendon reflexes (DTR's or T-reflexes), elicited by striking the tendon also utilize the entire reflex arc. The objective of this study was to compare the variability in latency and amplitude of the two reflexes in healthy subjects. Methods: Nine healthy male subjects, 27-43 years in age, 161-175 cm in height plus 60-86 Kg in weight, underwent weekly testing for four weeks with a Dan-Tec EMG counterpoint EMG system. Subjects were studied prone and surface EMG electrodes were placed on the right and left soleus muscles. The H-reflex was obtained by stimulating the tibial nerve in the politeal fossa with a 0.2 msec square wave pulse delivered at 2 Hz until the maximum H-reflex was obtained. The T-reflex was invoked by tapping the achilles tendon with a self triggering reflex hammer connected to the EMG system. The latencies and amplitudes for the H- and T-reflexes were measured. Results: These data indicate that the amplitudes of these reflexes varied considerably. However, latencies to invoked responses were consistent. The latency of the T-reflex was approximately 3-5 msec longer than the H-reflex. Conclusion: The T-reflex is easily obtained, requires less time, and is more comfortable to perform. Qualitative data can be obtained by deploying self triggering, force plated reflex hammers both in the 1-G and Zero-G environment.

Good, E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cloud cover estimation: Use of GOES imagery in development of cloud cover data base for insolation assessment

The potential of using digital satellite data to establish a cloud cover data base for the United States, one that would provide detailed information on the temporal and spatial variability of cloud development are studied. Key elements include: (1) interfacing GOES data from the University of Wisconsin Meteorological Data Facility with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's VICAR image processing system and IBIS geographic information system; (2) creation of a registered multitemporal GOES data base; (3) development of a simple normalization model to compensate for sun angle; (4) creation of a variable size georeference grid that provides detailed cloud information in selected areas and summarized information in other areas; and (5) development of a cloud/shadow model which details the percentage of each grid cell that is cloud and shadow covered, and the percentage of cloud or shadow opacity. In addition, comparison of model calculations of insolation with measured values at selected test sites was accomplished, as well as development of preliminary requirements for a large scale data base of cloud cover statistics.

Huning, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for Black Holes in Green Peas from WISE Colors and Variability

We explore the presence of active galactic nuclei (AGNs)/black holes in Green Pea galaxies (GPs), motivated by the presence of high-ionization emission lines such as He ii and [Ne iii] in their optical spectra. In order to identify AGN candidates, we used mid-infrared (MIR) photometric observations from the all-sky Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission for a sample of 1004 GPs. Considering only >5σ detections with no contamination from neighboring sources in AllWISE, we select 31 GPs out of 134 as candidate AGNs based on a stringent three-band WISE color diagnostic. Using multi-epoch photometry in W1 and W2 bands based on time-resolved unWISE coadd images, we find two sources exhibiting variability in both the WISE bands among 112 GPs with W1 ≤16 mag and no contamination from neighboring sources in unWISE. These two variable sources were selected as AGNs by the WISE three-band color diagnostic as well. Compared to variable AGN fractions observed among low-mass galaxy samples in previous studies, we find a higher fraction (~1.8%) of MIR variable sources among GPs, which demonstrates the uniqueness and importance of studying these extreme objects. Through this work, we demonstrate that MIR diagnostics are promising tools to select AGNs that may be missed by other selection techniques (including optical emission-line ratios and X-ray emission) in star formation-dominated, low-mass, low-metallicity galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear effects in a plain journal bearing. I - Analytical study. II - Results

In the first part of this work, a numerical model is presented which couples the variable-property Reynolds equation with a rotor-dynamics model for the calculation of a plain journal bearing's nonlinear characteristics when working with a cryogenic fluid, LOX. The effects of load on the linear/nonlinear plain journal bearing characteristics are analyzed and presented in a parametric form. The second part of this work presents numerical results obtained for specific parametric-study input variables (lubricant inlet temperature, external load, angular rotational speed, and axial misalignment). Attention is given to the interrelations between pressure profiles and bearing linear and nonlinear characteristics.

Choy, F. K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

On the Nature of the Variability Power Decay towards Soft Spectral States in X-Ray Binaries. Case Study in Cyg X-1

A characteristic feature of the Fourier Power Density Spectrum (PDS) observed from black hole X-ray binaries in low/hard and intermediate spectral states is a broad band-limited noise, characterized by a constant below some frequency (a "break" frequency) and a power law above this frequency. It has been shown that the variability of this type can be produced by the inward diffusion of the local driving perturbations in a bounded configuration (accretion disk or corona). In the framework of this model, the perturbation diffusion time to is related to the phenomenological break frequency, while the PDS power-law slope above the "break" is determined by the viscosity distribution over the configuration. The perturbation diffusion scenario explains the decay of the power of X-ray variability observed in a number of compact sources (containing black hole and neutron star) during an evolution of theses sources from low/hard to high/soft states. We compare the model predictions with the subset of data from Cyg X-1 collected by the Rossi X-ray Time Explorer (RXTE). Our extensive analysis of the Cyg X-1 PDSs demonstrates that the observed integrated power P(sub x), decreases approximately as a square root of the characteristic frequency of the driving oscillations v(sub dr). The RXTE observations of Cyg X-1 allow us to infer P(sub dr), and t(sub o) as a function of v(sub dr). We also apply the basic parameters of observed PDSs, power-law index and low frequency quasiperiodic oscillations. to infer Reynolds (Re) number from the observations using the method developed in our previous paper. Our analysis shows that Re-number increases from values about 10 in low/hard state to that about 70 during the high/soft state. Subject headings: accretion, accretion disks-black hole physics-stars:individual (Cyg X-1) :radiation mechanisms: nonthermal-physical data and processes

Titarchuk, Lev↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using the Diurnal Variability in GeoNEX TOA Reflectances for Earth Monitoring

Observations from the third-generation geostationary satellite instruments (GOES 16/17 ABI, Himawari 8/9 AHI, and etc.) have spatial resolution and spectral band configurations comparable to flagship LEO sensors (e.g., MODIS/VIIRS). More importantly, these data are acquired at very high temporal resolution, faithfully recording the variations of the full disk of Earth at every 5-10 minutes. They thus provide unique information about Earth’s atmosphere and surface. In order to explore the unique information content of geostationary data, this study systematically analyzes the diurnal variability in the GeoNEX L1G TOA reflectance products and compares them to simulated results by state-of-the-art radiative transfer codes. Our results show that • The smoothness of the TOA reflectance diurnal cycle provides a convenient and reliable way to identify stable atmospheric conditions and filter out passing clouds/shadows. • The diurnal variability of the blue band (0.47µm) reflectance is regulated mainly by atmospheric optical conditions over a majority of land cover types. As such, the diurnal variability of the blue band data allows us to retrieve AOD without invoking the use of spectral band ratios (SRC) as in previous algorithms. • In comparison, the diurnal variability of the short-wave infrared band (2.2µm) BRFs is mainly regulated by surface reflectance and the sun-target-satellite geometry. This information allows us to test and, if suitable, retrieve surface BRDF parameters. • Spectral band ratios, especially those between the 2.2µm and 0.47µm bands, are not constant but vary by locations and sun-target-satellite geometries. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that the information provided in high-frequent geostationary observations is unique and complementary to LEO sensors. Therefore, a synergy of GEO and LEO (and other) sensors has the great potential to improve existing remote sensing models and algorithms for better Earth monitoring.

Diurnal Variability↗
NASA NTRS1984

Interannual Variability in the Observed Circulation

An observational study of the relative roles of transient eddies and the time-mean flow in maintaining the momentum balance and in forcing vertical motion illuminated the role of time-mean secondary circulations forced by transient eddies. These secondary circulations transport westerly momentum from the upper to the lowr troposphere in the storm tracks, accelerating surface westerlies and making the time-mean flow more barotropic. An investigation of teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere revealed a zonal wavenumber 3 pattern of low-frequency variability in the winterime midlatitudes and a land-ocean seesaw during summer. An observational comparison of the Northern Hemisphere winters found substantial differences in circulation patterns. The circulation changes may have been associated with substantial changes in low-frequency transient eddies in the Pacific, perhaps related to barotropic instability in the exit region of the Asian jet. Changes in the baroclinicity of the low-level flow appeared to be associated with changes in the storm tracks, while changes in the transient eddies appeared to play a minor role in interannual differences in the zonal momentum balance or in the forcing of vertical motion.

White, G. H.↗