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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Application of Remote Sensing using NASA Earth Observations paired with Sociodemographic Indicators to Identify Communities Most Susceptible to Urban Heat Exposure in Austin, Texas

In recent years, Austin, Texas has experienced an increase in population and urban development. Additionally, the City’s climate—already characterized by periods of extreme heat and drought—continues to change. As temperatures and demand for utilities and cooling resources rise, the number of heat-related deaths and illnesses in socially vulnerable populations (e.g., older, lower-income populations) is expected to increase. The City of Austin, The University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin), and The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UT Health) partnered with NASA DEVELOP to examine the distribution of urban heat throughout the City. This project used land surface temperature, greenness, plant water content, and urban surface material analysis parameters derived from NASA Earth observations from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The project team produced three different indices to create a spatial analysis for the study area including a social vulnerability index (SoVI), heat exposure index (HEI), and an overall heat priority index (HPI) score. This overall score was determined with a weighted analysis of heat-related environmental variables from NASA Earth observations and socioeconomic data from the 2019 American Community Survey. Based on the HPI score, the project team identified 121 census block groups out of 605 total that are designated as being most at risk of adverse impacts from extreme heat events. To test the sensitivity of the HPI, the team used a Monte Carlo analysis using different approaches for geographic scale, variable inclusion, census uncertainty, and index aggregation. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the resulting HPI score showed the metric was consistent with the baseline HPI. This provided increased confidence the score can be used as a tool to make informed infrastructure improvement plans in targeted areas (e.g., siting of cooling centers) and ensure equitable sustainable development.

Ryan Hammock↗

NASA NTRS2011

On Time Delay Margin Estimation for Adaptive Control and Optimal Control Modification

This paper presents methods for estimating time delay margin for adaptive control of input delay systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent an adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window. The time delay margin of this input delay system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by three methods: Pade approximation, Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and the matrix measure method. These methods are applied to the standard model-reference adaptive control, s-modification adaptive law, and optimal control modification adaptive law. The windowing analysis results in non-unique estimates of the time delay margin since it is dependent on the length of a time window and parameters which vary from one time window to the next. The optimal control modification adaptive law overcomes this limitation in that, as the adaptive gain tends to infinity and if the matched uncertainty is linear, then the closed-loop input delay system tends to a LTI system. A lower bound of the time delay margin of this system can then be estimated uniquely without the need for the windowing analysis. Simulation results demonstrates the feasibility of the bounded linear stability method for time delay margin estimation.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Propagation of experimental uncertainties from the tunnel to the body coordinate system in 3-D LDV flow field studies

An analysis of experimental laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) data uncertainties that propagate from measurements in the tunnel coordinate system to results in the model system are provided. Calculations of uncertainties as functions of the variables that comprise the final result requires assessment of the contribution each variable makes. Such an analysis enables and necessitates the experimentalists to identify and address the contributing error sources in the experimental measurement system. This provides an opportunity to improve the quality of data derived from experimental systems. This is especially important in experiments where small changes in test conditions are expected to produce small, detectable changes in results. In addition, the need for high-quality experimental data for CFD method validation demands a thorough assessment of experimental uncertainty. Transforming from one Cartesian coordinate system to another by three sequential rotations, equations were developed to transform the variables initially obtained in the original coordinates into variables in the final coordinate system. Based on the transformation equations, propagation equations for errors in the experimentally-derived flow quantities were derived for a model at angle of attack. Experimental uncertainties were then propagated from the tunnel coordinate system into the model system.

Neuhart, Dan H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gluon distributions and their applications to Ioffe-time distributions

We investigate unpolarized and polarized gluon distributions and their applications to the Ioffe-time distributions, which are related to lattice QCD calculations of parton distribution functions. Guided by the counting rules based on the perturbative QCD at large momentum fraction x and the color coherence of gluon couplings at small x, we parametrize gluon distributions in the helicity basis. By fitting the unpolarized gluon distribution, the inferred polarized gluon distribution from our parametrization agrees with the one from global analysis. A simultaneous fit to both unpolarized and polarized gluon distributions is also performed to explore the model uncertainty. The agreement with the global analysis supports the (1 - x) power suppression of the helicity-antialigned distribution relative to the helicity-aligned distribution. The corresponding Ioffe-time distributions and their asymptotic expansions are calculated from the gluon distributions. Our results of the Ioffe-time distributions can provide guidance to the extrapolation of lattice QCD data to the region lacking precise gluonic matrix elements. Therefore, they can help regulate the ill-posed inverse problem associated with extracting the gluon distributions from discrete data from first-principle calculations, which are available in a limited range of the nucleon momentum and the spatial separation between the gluonic currents. Given various limitations in obtaining lattice QCD data at large Ioffe time, phenomenological approaches can provide important complementary information to extract the gluon distributions in the entire momentum fraction region, especially at small x. The possibility of investigating higher-twist effects and other systematic uncertainties in the contemporary first-principle calculations of parton distributions from phenomenologically well-determined Ioffe-time distributions in the large Ioffe-time region is also discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gamma Spectrometry Code Rodeo for Uranium Enrichment—FY 2022 Report

In the first two quarters of FY22, data acquisition continued at ORNL and LLNL using uranium sources of known enrichments. This was an FY21 task which could not be completed in FY21 because of problems encountered with the ORNL M400 CZT in Q4 of FY21, and the subsequent repairs. The detector was received back from H3D in the first of September 2021 , and the measurements resumed . Measurements using the repaired detector were completed in Q1 of FY22. The spectra were distributed by ORNL to the analyzing labs. Analysis results were received in Q2 of FY2022. The results from the various codes were intercompared and an ANOVA analysis was performed. Random and systematic uncertainties were established for each code. The ANOVA results and discussions were included in a revised version of FY21Annual Report issued in March 2022. A paper was presented at the INMM 2022Annual Conference, with the analysis results from the various isotopic codes, and the ANOVA table with random and systematic uncertainties. The Project Work Plan (PWP) for FY22 included a task to perform field testing of the M400 CZT and the analysis codes using UF 6 cylinder measurements at the Framatome Fuel Fabrication Facility in Richland, WA. PNNL was the lead for the field testing task. PNNL drafted a Field Test Plan, and refined it based on comments received from the team. PNNL coordinated with Framatome facility, the logistics of carrying out the field testing . A collimator and shield made out of TFlex (tungsten impregnated polymer) was designed and professionally manufactured. The collimators were used in the field test measurements. The measurements at Framatome were completed on April 21, 2022. A total of 34 Type 30B cylinders were measured using three M400 detectors (PNNL, LLNL, and ORNL detectors). Measurements using M400 were taken at two locations on the side of each cylinder and from the end-on bottom location. Additionally, HPGe measurements were taken at the end-on location to establish ground truth. Cylinder wall thickness measurements were also made at all three locations. To gain a better understanding of the effect of background from surrounding cylinders, the same five cylinders measured individually in low background locations were measured again in the cylinder storage yards. Due to inclement weather, manufacturer delays, shipping delays, and equipment failure, the measurement campaign spanned twice as long compared to the original timeline. Gamma-ray spectra from M400 and HPGe detectors, along with the cylinder data and photographs were organized and shared with the collaborators for further analysis. Spectra were analyzed by the participating laboratories. FY22 PWP also consists of tasks related to plutonium source measurements, adapting the codes to analyze plutonium spectra, and inter-comparison of the results from various codes. Plutonium spectra are being acquired at LANL, ORNL, and LLNL. LANL, SNL and LLNL are in the process of modifying FRAM, GADRAS, and CZTU, respectively. The plutonium related tasks will be completed in Q2 of FY23.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1971

Vhf/uhf stellar calibration error analysis.

Results of a statistical error analysis performed to determine the degree of uncertainty encountered when calibrating steerable vhf/uhf receiving antennas with the stellar calibration method. The analysis considers the propagation of precision error indices. It is shown that an antenna gain calibration by the stellar method has a one-sigma (1 sigma) uncertainty of plus or minus 0.65 dB at 1440 MHz (L-band), and plus or minus 0.8 dB (1 sigma) at 136 MHz (vhf). Somewhat increased precision can be achieved by monitoring the antenna gain-to-noise temperature ratio at a station; a worst-case uncertainty of plus or minus 0.4 dB (1 sigma) can be realized at both L-band and vhf. Finally, field test measurements of antenna gain, obtained at 136 MHz in the NASA space tracking and data acquisition network, demonstrate an uncertainty of plus or minus 1.0 dB or less, which effectively confirms the analytical result.

Taylor, R. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Fitting Zernike Polynomials to Discrete Data

Zernike polynomials are a widely used metric in modern optical analysis. They conveniently represent surfaces as a series of weighted terms corresponding to various optical aberrations. Ideally, each term is independent of others in the series, but Zernike polynomials lose this property when working with sets of discrete data. This gives rise to uncertainty in each polynomial’s actual contribution and affects metrology and simulation estimates of their relative weights. Several factors influencing these estimates are the number and arrangement of sample locations, the method for calculating the weights, and the total number of Zernike terms used in the calculation. Discussed is the uncertainty associated with linear regression using random sampling. Other topics reviewed are complex Zernike polynomials and vector spaces of functions.

Zernike Polynomials↗

NASA NTRS2001

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Bast, Callie C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

The objective of this work was to develop a multifidelity uncertainty quantification approach for efficient analysis of a commercial supersonic transport. An approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos was formulated in which a low-fidelity model could be corrected by any number of high-fidelity models. The formulation and methodology also allows for the addition of uncertainty sources not present in the lower fidelity models. To demonstrate the applicability of the multifidelity polynomial chaos approach, two model problems were explored. The first was supersonic airfoil with three levels of modeling fidelity, each capturing an additional level of physics. The second problem was a commercial supersonic transport. This model had three levels of fidelity that included two different modeling approaches and the addition of physics between the fidelity levels. Both problems illustrate the applicability and significant computational savings of the multifidelity polynomial chaos method.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Error Analysis Toolkit for Binned Counting Experiments

We introduce the MINERvA Analysis Toolkit (MAT), a utility for centralizing the handling of systematic uncertainties in HEP analyses. The fundamental utilities of the toolkit are the MnvHnD, a powerful histogram container class, and the systematic Universe classes, which provide a modular implementation of the many universe error analysis approach. These products can be used stand-alone or as part of a complete error analysis prescription. They support the propagation of systematic uncertainty through all stages of analysis, and provide flexibility for an arbitrary level of user customization. This extensible solution to error analysis enables the standardization of systematic uncertainty definitions across an experiment and a transparent user interface to lower the barrier to entry for new analyzers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO 2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2 nd -generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.

Biomethane↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Simulation to Interpret LArS's Results

Scintillation light analysis in liquid argon based neutrino detectors is restrained in capability due to uncertainty in fundamental constants critical to the analysis process. One such property is the Rayleigh scattering length of liquid argon. In the fall of 2023, the TallBo cryostat, located in the Noble Liquid Testing Facility (NLTF) at Fermilab, was used to study the scattering length of liquid argon in the Liquid Argon Scattering (LArS) experiment. Due to systematic errors unknown during measurement analysis, LArS s measurements were quite uncertain. By simulating the LArS experiment, we found that the downturn in detector count rate as a function of liquid argon height at low heights was caused by a misplaced silicon photo multiplier (SiPM). With concentrated effort, we may be able to successfully correct this effect by understanding the relationship between the specified Rayleigh scattering length and the measured attenuation length. With this information and further progression in analysis, we may be able to extract corrected measurements from the LArS data and attain a tangible experimental measurement of the scattering length of liquid argon.

Breaux, Auto D. [Tulane U.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification of the Liquid Argon Scattering Experimental Discrepancies Using Simulation

Scintillation light analysis in liquid argon based neutrino detectors is restrained in capability due to uncertainty in fundamental constants critical to the analysis process. One such property is the Rayleigh scattering length of liquid argon. In the fall of 2023, the TallBo cryostat, located in the Proton Assembly Building at Fermilab, was used to study the scattering length of liquid argon in the Liquid Argon Scattering (LArS) experiment. Due to systematic errors unknown during measurement analysis, LArS’s measurements were quite uncertain. By simulating the LArS experiment, we found that the downturn in detector count rate as a function of liquid argon height at low heights was caused by a misplaced photo multiplier. With concentrated effort, we may be able to successfully correct this effect by understanding the relationship between the specified Rayleigh scattering length and the measured attenuation length. With this information and further progression in analysis, we may be able to extract corrected measurements from the LArS data and attain a tangible experimental measurement of the scattering length of liquid argon.

Breaux, Auto D. [Tulane U.; Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS1993

A comparative study of multivariable robustness analysis methods as applied to integrated flight and propulsion control

Three multivariable robustness analysis methods are compared and contrasted. The focus of the analysis is on system stability and performance robustness to uncertainty in the coupling dynamics between two interacting subsystems. Of particular interest is interacting airframe and engine subsystems, and an example airframe/engine vehicle configuration is utilized in the demonstration of these approaches. The singular value (SV) and structured singular value (SSV) analysis methods are compared to a method especially well suited for analysis of robustness to uncertainties in subsystem interactions. This approach is referred to here as the interacting subsystem (IS) analysis method. This method has been used previously to analyze airframe/engine systems, emphasizing the study of stability robustness. However, performance robustness is also investigated here, and a new measure of allowable uncertainty for acceptable performance robustness is introduced. The IS methodology does not require plant uncertainty models to measure the robustness of the system, and is shown to yield valuable information regarding the effects of subsystem interactions. In contrast, the SV and SSV methods allow for the evaluation of the robustness of the system to particular models of uncertainty, and do not directly indicate how the airframe (engine) subsystem interacts with the engine (airframe) subsystem.

Schierman, John D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Analysis of the Human Research Program’s Impact 1.0 Model

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Leave One Out (LOO) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on non-linear simulation models like the IMPACT Model. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The “partial” part is due to the adjustments made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. LOO removes a medical condition from test suite and calculates the change in the outcome. This is used to identify the influence of the condition input in the model The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number of occurrences of each of the one hundred plus IMPACT medical conditions generated over the simulations, and the IMPACT outputs from the MEDPRAT mathematical model. The outputs total task time lost (TTL), number of return to definitive care (RTDC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMPACT team will report the results of using PRCC and LOO on IMPACT 1.0. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty, and input values could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMPACT 1.0.

Sensitivity Anaylsis↗

DOE OSTI2020

ECP Software Technology Capability Assessment Report

The Exascale Computing Project Software Technology (ECP ST) focus area represents the key bridge between Exascale systems and the scientists developing applications that will run on those platforms. ECP offers a unique opportunity to build a coherent set of software (often referred to as the "software stack") that will allow application developers to maximize their ability to write highly parallel applications, targeting multiple Exascale architectures with runtime environments that will provide high performance and resilience. But applications are only useful if they can provide scientific insight, and the unprecedented data produced by these applications require a complete analysis work ow that includes new technology to scalably collect, reduce, organize, curate, and analyze the data into actionable decisions. This requires approaching scientific computing in a holistic manner, encompassing the entire user workflow - from conception of a problem, setting up the problem with validated inputs, performing high-fidelity simulations, to the application of uncertainty quantification to the final analysis. The software stack plan defined here aims to address all of these needs by extending current technologies to Exascale where possible, by performing the research required to conceive of new approaches necessary to address unique problems where current approaches will not suffice, and by deploying high-quality and robust software products on the platforms developed in the Exascale systems project. The ECP ST portfolio has established a set of interdependent projects that will allow for the research, development, and delivery of a comprehensive software stack,

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Code and Data for "Quantifying Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Savings and Mitigation Costs with Cellulosic Biofuels"

Use of cellulosic biofuels from non-feedstocks are modeled using the BEPAM (Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model) model to quantifying the uncertainties about induced land use change effects, net greenhouse gas saving potential, and economic costs. The code is in GAMS, general algebraic modeling language. NOTE: Column 3 is titled "BAU" in "merged_BAU.gdx", "merged_RFS.gdx", and "merged_CEM.gdx", but contains "RFS" data in "merged_RFS.gdx" and "CEM" data in "merged_CEM.gdx".

BEPAM↗