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Radiation health for a Mars mission

Uncertainties in risk assessments for exposure of a Mars mission crew to space radiation place limitations on mission design and operation. Large shielding penalties are imposed in order to obtain acceptable safety margins. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are the major concern. A warning system and 'safe-haven' are needed to protect the crew from large SPE which produce lethal doses. A model developed at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to describe solar modulation of GCR intensities reduces that uncertainty to less than 10 percent. Radiation transport models used to design spacecraft shielding have large uncertainties in nuclear fragmentation cross sections for GCR which interact with spacecraft materials. Planned space measurements of linear energy transfer (LET) spectra behind various shielding thicknesses will reduce uncertainties in dose-versus-shielding thickness relationships to 5-10 percent. The largest remaining uncertainty is in biological effects of space radiation. Data on effects of energetic ions in human are nonexistent. Experimental research on effects in animals and cell is needed to allow extrapolation to the risk of carcinogenesis in humans.

Robbins, Donald E.↗

Sensitivity of the Assimilated Ozone in the UTLS to Model and Data Selection Changes

This presentation will discuss the sensitivity of assimilated ozone fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) to a number of factors, focusing mainly on aspects of data selection and the prediction model. This is important, because assimilation represents an attempt to construct our best estimates of the true ozone field; however, inaccuracies in the UTLS ozone distribution translate into an uncertainty in factors such as the calculated radiative forcing of climate or the inferred stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. The 3D ozone data assimilation system, from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), combines observations of total ozone column and stratospheric profiles with predictions from an off-line, parameterized chemistry and transport model (pCTM) to produce six-hourly, global analyses. The first experiments discussed assimilate ozone retrievals from the Earth-Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EPTOMS) and stratospheric profiles from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution, with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the UTLS region are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Sensitivity studies have been conducted to examine the responses to TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, modifications of the forecast and observation error covariance models, and the model formulation (turning off chemistry or using different wind analyses in the pCTM). The second set of experiments includes an additional data type: ozone retrieved from infrared limb-emission by MIPAS on Envisat. These data offer not only improved vertical resolution in the stratosphere, but also give measurements in the polar night. Comparisons of the assimilated ozone fields from both sets of experiments with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes. It is shown that many of the changes have a significant impact on the UTLS ozone estimates. Implications for interpretation of STE and radiative forcing of climate are discussed.

Pawson, Steven↗

Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes controlling them.

Methane↗

Global nitrogen and sulfur deposition mapping using a measurement–model fusion approach

Abstract. Global reactive nitrogen (N) deposition has more than tripled since 1860 and is expected to remain high due to food production and fossil fuel consumption. Global sulfur emissions have been decreasing worldwide over the last 30 years, but many regions are still experiencing unhealthily high levels of deposition. We update the 2010 global deposition budget for reactive nitrogen and sulfur components with new regional wet deposition measurements from Asia, improving the ensemble results of 11 global chemistry transport models from the second phase of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP II). The observationally adjusted global N deposition budget is 114.5 Tg N, representing a minor increase of 1 % from the model-only derived values, and the adjusted global sulfur deposition budget is 88.9 Tg S, representing a 6.5 % increase from the modeled values, using an interpolation distance of 2.5∘. Regionally, deposition adjustments can be up to ∼ 73 % for nitrogen and 112 % for sulfur. Our study demonstrates that a global measurement–model fusion approach can improve N and S deposition model estimates at a regional scale, with sufficient availability of observations; however, in large parts of the world, alternative approaches need to be explored. The analysis presented here represents a step forward toward the World Meteorological Organization's goal of global fusion products for accurately mapping harmful air pollution deposition.

Rubin, Hannah J. (ORCID:0000000182226924)↗

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America Mission

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America NASA Earth Venture Suborbital Mission set out to improve regional atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) inversions by exploring the intersection of the strong GHG fluxes and vigorous atmospheric transport that occurs within the midlatitudes. In this study, two research aircraft instrumented with remote and in situ sensors to measure GHG mole fractions, associated trace gases, and atmospheric state variables collected 1,140.7 flight hours of research data, distributed across 305 individual aircraft sorties, coordinated within 121 research flight days, and spanning five 6-week seasonal flight campaigns in the central and eastern United States. Flights sampled 31 synoptic sequences, including fair-weather and frontal conditions, at altitudes ranging from the atmospheric boundary layer to the upper free troposphere. The observations were complemented with global and regional GHG flux and transport model ensembles. We found that midlatitude weather systems contain large spatial gradients in GHG mole fractions, in patterns that were consistent as a function of season and altitude. We attribute these patterns to a combination of regional terrestrial fluxes and inflow from the continental boundaries. These observations, when segregated according to altitude and air mass, provide a variety of quantitative insights into the realism of regional CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes and atmospheric GHG transport realizations. The ACT-America dataset and ensemble modeling methods provide benchmarks for the development of atmospheric inversion systems. As global and regional atmospheric inversions incorporate ACT-America’s findings and methods, we anticipate these systems will produce increasingly accurate and precise subcontinental GHG flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strong Proton‐Phonon Coupling Drives Fast Ion Transport in Perovskites

Conduction of protons in solids is a cooperative process propelled by phonons, with molecular details obscured by the irregular movements in the thermal bath. It is shown that substitution with Y forms an imaginary phonon mode, instrumental for the function as proton conductor and effectively lowering the activation barrier for proton transport. To untangle the interplay in the exemplary proton conductor BaSn 0.9 Y 0.1 O 3 , its crystallographic structure is determined with high resolution neutron diffractometry and its phonon density of states with density functional theory calculations, experimentally validated by element specific nuclear resonant vibration spectroscopy. Based on phonon analysis, a quantitative transport model is present, which predicts the activation energy and performance by the ratio of ionic radii. Rather than individual vibrational modes, it is the oxygen sub-lattice which exerts its momentum on the protons. The extent of this momentum transfer is governed by the ratio of ionic radii. This model extends the transition state theory by the phonon-phonon interaction and complements the previously proposed idea that lattice dynamics is decisive for proton transport and specifies which properties of the material exactly define the vibration properties.

activation barriers↗

Dynamic soil columns simulate Arctic redox biogeochemistry and carbon release during changes in water saturation

Thawing Arctic permafrost can induce hydrologic change and alter redox conditions, shifting the balance of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. There remains uncertainty about how soil saturation and redox transitions impact dissolved and gas phase carbon fluxes, and efforts to link hydrobiogeochemical processes to ecosystem-scale models are limited. This study evaluates SOM decomposition of Arctic tundra soils using column experiments, water chemistry measurements, microbial community analysis, and a PFLOTRAN reactive transport model. Soil columns from a thermokarst channel (TC) and an upland tundra (UC) were exposed to cycles of saturation and drainage, which controlled carbon emissions. During saturation, an outflow of dissolved organic carbon from the UC soil correlated with elevated reduced iron and decreased pH; during drainage, UC carbon dioxide fluxes were 70% higher than TC fluxes. Intermittent methane release was observed for TC, consistent with higher methanogen abundance. Slower drainage in the TC soil correlated with more subtle biogeochemical changes. PFLOTRAN simulations captured experimental trends in soil carbon fluxes, oxygen concentrations, and water contents. The model was then used to evaluate additional soil water drainage rates. This study emphasizes the importance of considering hydrologic change when evaluating and simulating SOM decomposition in dynamic Arctic tundra environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Jet quenching and medium response in high-energy heavy-ion collisions: a review

Jet quenching has been used successfully as a hard probe to study properties of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) in high-energy heavy-ion collisions at both the relativistic heavy-ion collider and the large hadron collider. Furthermore, we will review recent progresses in theoretical and phenomenological studies of jet quenching with jet transport models. Special emphasis is given to effects of jet-induced medium response on a wide variety of experimental observables and their implications on extracting transport properties of the QGP in heavy-ion collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Significance of radiation models in investigating the flow phenomena around a Jovian entry body

Formulation is presented to demonstrate the significance of a simplified radiation model in investigating the flow phenomena in the viscous radiating shock layer of a Jovian entry body. The body configurations used are a 55 degree sphere cone and 50 degree hyperboloid. A nongray absorption model for hydrogen-helium gas is developed which consists of 30 steps over the spectral range of 0 to 20 eV. By employing this model, results were obtained for temperature, pressure, density, the shock layer and along the body surface. These are compared with results of two sophisticated radiative transport models available in the literature.

Tiwari, S. N.↗

Three dimensional model calculations of the global dispersion of high speed aircraft exhaust and implications for stratospheric ozone loss

Two-dimensional (zonally averaged) photochemical models are commonly used for calculations of ozone changes due to various perturbations. These include calculating the ozone change expected as a result of change in the lower stratospheric composition due to the exhaust of a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere. However, zonal asymmetries are anticipated to be important to this sort of calculation. The aircraft are expected to be restricted from flying over land at supersonic speed due to sonic booms, thus the pollutant source will not be zonally symmetric. There is loss of pollutant through stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but these processes are spatially and temporally inhomogeneous. Asymmetry in the pollutant distribution contributes to the uncertainty in the ozone changes calculated with two dimensional models. Pollutant distributions for integrations of at least 1 year of continuous pollutant emissions along flight corridors are calculated using a three dimensional chemistry and transport model. These distributions indicate the importance of asymmetry in the pollutant distributions to evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on ozone. The implications of such pollutant asymmetries to assessment calculations are discussed, considering both homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Quasi-horizontal transport and mixing in the Antarctic stratosphre

The quasi-horizontal transport and mixing properties of the Antarctic stratosphere are investigated with a simi-Lagrangian transport model and a 'contour advection' technique for the winter and spring of 1992 using analyzed winds from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office data assimiliation system. Transport calculations show that passive tracers are well mixed inside the polar vortex as well as in the midlatitude 'surf zone.' A the vortex edge, strong radial gradients in the tracer fields are well preserved, and their evolutions follow that of the potential vorticity until some time after the breakdown of the polar vortex. In the middle stratosphere there is little tracer exchange across the vortex edge in August and September. Some vortex air is eroded into the surf zone in filamentary form in October, and very strong exchange of air occurs between high and middle latitudes in November. In the lower stratosphere the vortex is not so isolated from the midlatitudes as in the middle stratosphere, and there is more mass exchange across the vortex edge. Calculations of the lengthening of material contours using the contour advection technique show that in the middle stratosphere, strong stirring (i.e., stretching and folding of material elements) occurs in the inner vortex, while the strongest stirring occurs in the midlatitude surf zone and the weakest occurs at the vortex edge. In the lower strtosphere, strong stirring occurs in the inner vortex. Stirring is moderate at the vortex edge and in the midlatitudes.

Chen, Ping↗

Strong Sensitivity of the Isotopic Composition of Methane to the Plausible Range of Tropospheric Chlorine

The C-13 isotopic ratio of methane, δC-13 of CH4, provides additional constraints on the CH4 budget to complement the constraints from CH4 observations. The interpretation of δC-13 observations is complicated, however, by uncertainties in the methane sink. The reaction of CH4 with Cl is highly fractionating, increasing the relative abundance of 13CH4, but there is currently no consensus on the strength of the tropospheric Cl sink. Global model simulations of halogen chemistry differ strongly from one another in terms of both the magnitude of tropospheric Cl and its geographic distribution. This study explores the impact of the inter-model diversity in Cl fields on the simulated δC-13 of CH4. We use a set of GEOS global model simulations with different predicted Cl fields to test the sensitivity of the δC-13 of CH4 to the diversity of Cl output from chemical transport models. We find that δC-13 is highly sensitive to both the amount and geographic distribution of Cl. Simulations with Cl providing 0.28% or 0.66% of the total CH4 loss bracket the δC-13 observations for a fixed set of emissions. Thus, even when Cl provides only a small fraction of the total CH4 loss and has a small impact on total CH4, it provides a strong lever on δC-13. Consequently, it is possible to achieve a good representation of total CH4 using widely different Cl concentrations, but the partitioning of CH4 loss between the OH and Cl reactions leads to strong differences in isotopic composition depending on which model’s Cl field is used. Comparing multiple simulations, we find that altering the tropospheric Cl field leads to approximately a 0.5‰ increase in δ(13)CH4for each percent increase in how much CH4 is oxidized by Cl. The geographic distribution and seasonal cycle of Cl also impacts the hemispheric gradient and seasonal cycle of δC-13. The large effect of Cl on δC-13 compared to total CH4 broadens the range of CH4 source mixtures that can be reconciled with δC-13 observations. Stronger constraints on tropospheric Cl are necessary to improve estimates of CH4 sources from δC-13 observations.

Global model simulations of halogen chemistry↗

Comparison of Designs of Hydrogen Isotope Separation Columns by Numerical Modeling

Mixtures of gas-phase hydrogen isotopologues (diatomic combinations of protium, deuterium, and tritium) can be separated using columns containing a solid such as palladium that reversibly absorbs hydrogen. A temperature-swing process can transport hydrogen into or out of a column by inducing temperature-dependent absorption or desorption reactions. Here, we consider two designs: a thermal cycling absorption process, which moves hydrogen back and forth between two columns, and a simulated moving bed (SMB), where columns are in a circular arrangement. We present a numerical mass and heat transport model of absorption columns for hydrogen isotope separation. It includes a detailed treatment of the absorption–desorption reaction for palladium. By comparing the isotope concentrations within the columns as a function of position and time, we observe that SMB can lead to sharper separations for a given number of thermal cycles by avoiding the remixing of isotopes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Using Satellite Observations of Cloud Vertical Distribution to Improve Global Model Estimates of Cloud Radiative Effect on Key Tropospheric Oxidants

Radiative effect of clouds is one of the major factors that affect tropospheric OH. Large differences in cloud distributions among current (chemistry-climate or chemical transport) models could contribute significantly to the wide model spread of tropospheric OH, which was reported by the ACCMIP activity (Voulgarakis et al., ACP 2013). CCCM, a 3-D cloud data product developed at NASA Langley and merged from multiple A-Train satellite observations, provides unprecedentedly strong constraints on the vertical distribution of clouds and therefore simulated effects of clouds on key tropospheric oxidants.

Liu, Hongyu↗

Intricate structure of the plasma Rayleigh–Taylor instability in shock tubes

Spikes and bubbles grow on unstable interfaces that are accelerated in high-energy-density conditions. If a shock propagates ahead of the interface, the plasma can be heated to extreme conditions where conduction and radiation fluxes influence the hydrodynamics. For example, a National Ignition Facility experiment found reduced single-mode nonlinear mixed-width growth in conditions scaled from a supernova explosion. We present high-resolution two-dimensional radiation hydrodynamic simulations with the Flash code that quantitatively reproduce the experiment. Radiative fluxes are primarily responsible for ablating the spike and removing the mushroom caps. The ablated plasma increases the mixed mass and forms a low-density halo with spikes forming in both directions. This is considerably more complex than classical instability. The halo is sensitive to ablative physics, so radiographing it may aid in the verification of energy transport modeling. Although ablation changes the spike shape, it has little effect on the overall mixed width for these parameters. This is because ablation enhances the bubble velocity but it has the opposite effect on the spike. The radiation transport instead suppresses the growth via increasing the shocked foam density, thus decreasing the Atwood number. Furthermore, a terminal velocity model including the rarefaction expansion agrees with the experimental mixed-width growth.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluation of HZETRN on the Martian Surface: Sensitivity Tests and Model Results

The Mars Science Laboratory Radiation Assessment Detector (MSLRAD) is providing continuous measurements of dose, dose equivalent, and particle flux on the surface of Mars. These measurements have been highly useful in validating environmental and radiation transport models that will be heavily relied upon for future deep space missions. In this work, the HZETRN code is utilized to estimate radiation quantities of interest on the Martian surface. A description of the modeling approach used with HZETRN is given along with the various input models and parameters used to define the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment and Martian geometry. Sensitivity tests are performed to gauge the impact of varying several input factors on quantities being compared to MSLRAD data. Results from these tests provide context for inter-code comparisons presented in a companion paper within this issue. It is found that details of the regolith and atmospheric composition have a minimal impact on surface flux, dose, and dose equivalent. Details of the density variation within the atmosphere and uncertainties associated with specifying the vertical atmospheric thickness are also found to have minimal impact. Two widely used GCR models are used as input into HZETRN and it is found that the associated surface quantities are within several percent of each other.

Tony C Slaba↗

A hierarchical Bayesian model for background variation in radiation source localization

In this paper, we apply a new model to account for varying background radiation in radiological source localization. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously infers background and source location parameters without requiring separate estimation of the background radiation at each detector location. We employ a simplified photon transport model to reduce the computational expense of Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model accuracy by localizing a cesium-137 source in a simulated city block, and we analyze experimental field measurements with varying background. In both cases, the model provides sufficient fidelity that we can locate the source while simultaneously estimating background radiation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Characterization of thermal transport and evolution of Au plasma in ICF experiments by Thomson scattering

Here, this paper demonstrates the capability of optical Thomson scattering (OTS) to measure thermal transport, and provides support to radiation hydrodynamic and kinetic simulations of electron thermal transport and plasma evolution. OTS theory and plasma simulations are applied to the interpretation of experimental measurements of laser-produced plasma from spherical gold targets on the OMEGA laser facility. The dynamical form factor, S($\vec{k}$, ω), of electron density fluctuations that is used in the fitting of Thomson scattering spectra includes ion–ion collisions and effects of non-Maxwellian distribution functions. OTS measurements and their interpretation are consistent with the nonlocal transport model in radiation hydrodynamic simulations as well as with kinetic simulations in the second half of the probe pulse duration. In particular, the reversal of heat transport during cooling is observed to be consistent with simulations, while some discrepancies are noted during the initial heating of the Au targets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗