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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting transcriptional responses to cold stress across plant species

Although genome-sequence assemblies are available for a growing number of plant species, gene-expression responses to stimuli have been cataloged for only a subset of these species. Many genes show altered transcription patterns in response to abiotic stresses. However, orthologous genes in related species often exhibit different responses to a given stress. Accordingly, data on the regulation of gene expression in one species are not reliable predictors of orthologous gene responses in a related species. Here, we trained a supervised classification model to identify genes that transcriptionally respond to cold stress. A model trained with only features calculated directly from genome assemblies exhibited only modest decreases in performance relative to models trained by using genomic, chromatin, and evolution/diversity features. Models trained with data from one species successfully predicted which genes would respond to cold stress in other related species. Cross-species predictions remained accurate when training was performed in cold-sensitive species and predictions were performed in cold-tolerant species and vice versa. Models trained with data on gene expression in multiple species provided at least equivalent performance to models trained and tested in a single species and outperformed single-species models in cross-species prediction. These results suggest that classifiers trained on stress data from well-studied species may suffice for predicting gene-expression patterns in related, less-studied species with sequenced genomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hands-On, Heads-Up: Blending Cyber T&E with Data Science-Driven Training in Jupyter Notebooks

In an era of increasingly sophisticated threats to critical infrastructure, cybersecurity professionals must be more than just aware; they must be immersed, agile, and equipped to operate in environments where failure is not an option. Nowhere is this truer than in the nuclear sector, where cyber-physical systems, regulatory scrutiny, and insider threat potential demand a new generation of hands-on, technically fluent defenders. This paper presents a unified training approach that integrates Cybersecurity Test and Evaluation (T&E) with data science techniques using Jupyter Notebooks as the interactive lab environment. The program centers on a modular, scenario-driven curriculum designed to build not just knowledge but practical capability in the assessment and defense of radiation detection systems, firmware interfaces, and operational security postures.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural network based emulation of galaxy power spectrum covariances: A reanalysis of BOSS DR12 data

We train neural networks to quickly generate redshift-space galaxy power spectrum covariances from a given parameter set (cosmology and galaxy bias). This covariance emulator utilizes a combination of traditional fully connected network layers and transformer architecture to accurately predict covariance matrices for the high redshift, north galactic cap sample of the BOSS DR12 galaxy catalog. We run simulated likelihood analyses with emulated and brute-force computed covariances, and we quantify the network’s performance via two different metrics: (1) difference in Χ 2 and (2) likelihood contours for simulated BOSS DR 12 analyses. We find that the emulator returns excellent results over a large parameter range. We then use our emulator to perform a reanalysis of the BOSS HighZ NGC galaxy power spectrum, and find that varying covariance with cosmology along with the model vector produces Ω m = $0.27⁢6$$^{+0.013}_{–0.015}$, H 0 = 70.2 ± 1.9 km/s/Mpc, and σ 8 = $0.67⁢4$$^{+0.058}_{–0.077}$. These constraints represent an average 0.46⁢σ shift in best-fit values and a 5% increase in constraining power compared to fixing the covariance matrix (Ω m = 0.293 ± 0.017, H 0 = 70.3 ± 2.0 km/s/Mpc, σ 8 = $0.70⁢2$$^{+0.063}_{–0.075}$). As a result, this work demonstrates that emulators for more complex cosmological quantities than second-order statistics can be trained over a wide parameter range at sufficiently high accuracy to be implemented in realistic likelihood analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning for In-Spill Optimization of the Mu2e Resonant Extraction: Compensating Non-Stationarity

We present design considerations and challenges for the fast machine learning component of a third-order resonant beam extraction regulation system being commissioned to deliver steady beam rates to the mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Dedicated quadrupoles drive the tune toward the 29/3 resonance each spill, extracting beam at kV multiwire septa. The overall Spill Regulation System consists of (1) a “slow” process using ~100-spill averages to adjust the base quad ramp infrequently, (2) a feedforward harmonic content compensator, and (3) the “fast” ML agent reacting during each ongoing spill with on-the-fly additive corrections to the sum of (1) and (2). We have demonstrated improved beam-rate steadying for a fast ML agent compared to a PID controller using a quasi-physical spill simulation, and demonstrated distillation of that simulation into a predictive surrogate model. Current work includes a data-and-training pipeline to generate data-aware surrogates with real-world dynamics, even as the dynamics shift unpredictably. The surrogates are to act as RL environments against which to train our fast ML control agents before deploying them on FPGA in the live system. Further current efforts focus on modeling and controlling beam loss around the storage ring, understanding additional available hardware inputs to the model, and the interplay of these with beam-steadying performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1953

Time-History Data of Maneuvers Performed by a Republic F84G Airplane During Squadron Operational Training

Preliminary results of one phase of a control-motion study program involving several jet fighter-type airplanes are presented in time-history form and are summarized as maximum measured quantities plotted against indicated airspeed. The results pertain to approximately 1,000 maneuvers performed by a Republic F-84G jet-fighter airplane during squadron operational training. The data include most tactical maneuvers of which the F-84G airplane is capable. Maneuvers were performed at pressure altitudes of 0 to 30,000 feet with indicated airspeeds ranging from the stalling speed to approximately 515 knots.

Hamer, Harold A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating Lossy Compressibility of Scientific Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Simulation based scientific applications generate increasingly large amounts of data on high-performance computing (HPC) systems. To allow data to be stored and analyzed efficiently, data compression is often utilized to reduce the volume and velocity of data. However, a question often raised by domain scientists is the level of compression that can be expected so that they can make more informed decisions, balancing between accuracy and performance. In this letter, we propose a deep neural network based approach for estimating the compressibility of scientific data. To train the neural network, we build both general features as well as compressor-specific features so that the characteristics of both data and lossy compressors are captured in training. Our approach is demonstrated to outperform a prior analytical model as well as a sampling based approach in the case of a biased estimation, i.e., for SZ. However, for the unbiased estimation (i.e., ZFP), the sampling based approach yields the best accuracy, despite the high overhead involved in sampling the target dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using active learning to improve quasar identification for the DESI spectra processing pipeline

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey uses an automatic spectral classification pipeline to classify spectra. QuasarNET is a convolutional neural network used as part of this pipeline originally trained using data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). In this paper we implement an active learning algorithm to optimally select spectra to use for training a new version of the QuasarNET weights file using only DESI data, with the goal of improving classification accuracy. This active learning algorithm includes a novel outlier rejection step using a Self-Organizing Map to ensure we label spectra representative of the larger quasar sample observed in DESI. We perform two iterations of the active learning pipeline, assembling a final dataset of 5600 labeled spectra, a small subset of the approximately 1.3 million quasar targets in DESI's Data Release 1. When splitting the spectra into training and validation subsets we achieve similar performance to the previously trained weights file in completeness and purity calculated on the validation dataset but do so with less than one tenth of the amount of training data. The new weights also more consistently classify objects in the same way when used on unlabeled data compared to the old weights file. In the process of improving QuasarNET's classification accuracy we discovered a systemic error in QuasarNET's redshift estimation and used our findings to improve our understanding of QuasarNET's redshifts.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

A data-centric weak supervised learning for highway traffic incident detection

Using the data from loop detector sensors for near-real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways is crucial to averting major traffic congestion. While recent supervised machine learning methods offer solutions to incident detection by leveraging human-labeled incident data, the false alarm rate is often too high to be used in practice. Specifically, the inconsistency in the human labeling of the incidents significantly affects the performance of supervised learning models. To that end, we focus on a data-centric approach to improve the accuracy and reduce the false alarm rate of traffic incident detection on highways. We develop a weak supervised learning workflow to generate high-quality training labels for the incident data without the ground truth labels, and we use those generated labels in the supervised learning setup for final detection. This approach comprises three stages. First, we introduce a data preprocessing and curation pipeline that processes traffic sensor data to generate high-quality training data through leveraging labeling functions, which can be domain knowledge-related or simple heuristic rules. Second, we evaluate the training data generated by weak supervision using three supervised learning models-random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and a support vector machine ensemble-and long short-term memory classifiers. The results show that the accuracy of all of the models improves significantly after using the training data generated by weak supervision. Third, we develop an online real-time incident detection approach that leverages the model ensemble and the uncertainty quantification while detecting incidents. Finally, we show that our proposed weak supervised learning workflow achieves a high incident detection rate (0.90) and low false alarm rate (0.08).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

FY24 Progress Report: SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking

Algorithms for Machine Learning (ML) and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program have been developed in an ongoing collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). The objective of the algorithms is to automate the identification of corrosion and crack formation in the Inner Container Closure Weld Region (ICCWR) of the canister system used to store Pu-bearing material. Data for corrosion and cracking is collected from large binary files generated by a Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM), the Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS), or,in a recent proposal, by a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The ML software uses the physical attributes in the data files (e.g., one or more of: height, color, and 16-bit grayscale values as functions of position in a plane projection) to detect signs of surface corrosion and cracking after being trained on similar data, with the features to be detected. Although the initial scope included screening for broader indicators of corrosion, e.g., pitting, identification of potential cracks was prioritized for the past several years at the request of program leadership. Labeled training data is essential to developing the ML algorithm, and enhancements to data labeling capability have been developed to address this essential precursor to application of ML routines. Efficient labeling is particularly important in view of the large volume of data required to train ML algorithms and the relative rarity of cracks in the ICCWR data set. The updated program will read binary data from either LCM, WAMS or SEM files, interrogate data attributes, facilitate user labeling of data for training ML algorithms, execute ML algorithms, output parameters from trained ML algorithms, report ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generate graphical representations for various analyses. In FY24, hourglass neural networks (HNNs) that were initiated in FY22 were further developed and tested using available LCM data, and their performance was tested against that of the alternative U-Net Neural Network algorithm structure. HNNs along with previously developed Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) comprise a suite of ML tools for identification of cracks in the ICCWR

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

Training package 1 for slitting data analysis

This document and accompanying files are intended as a first training package on how to analyze slitting data. The end goal is to have Idaho National Laboratory (INL) personnel trained to analyze future slitting data taken in the INL Hot Cell on clad, Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) fuel plates. This first data package will cover data analysis for a monolithic material (as compared to a layered material like the clad fuel plates). The additional issues for layered specimens will be covered in a future training package.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2022

DataSet: Aerial Object Trajectory Classification by Training on Flight Controller Data and Testing on RADAR Generated

Onboard collision avoidance is needed to enable safe, autonomous flight operations for NASA projects such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), as well as many commercial applications. Real-time aerial object classification will improve onboard collision avoidance algorithm decision making and may reduce unnecessary activation of avoidance systems. This work trains an aircraft trajectory classifier using trajectories from flight controller logs and tests the classifier using RADAR collected trajectories during air to air experiments and ground to air experiments. In contrast to RADAR data, these flight controller logs are relatively abundant, which makes the possibility of substituting flight data for RADAR data an attractive, cost-effective option. The SVM model developed in this work achieved a 79.7% classification accuracy on the first second of radar trajectories of GA, multirotor sUAS, and fixed wing sUAS. Findings from this e that it is feasible to classify sensor collected trajectories using a classifier trained flight controller data.

Chester V Dolph↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Transportability of a Deep Learning Denoising Model Using Transfer Learning Techniques

The adoption of machine learning techniques in the seismology community has led to great performance improvements in several areas, including signal processing. Specifically, the development of deep learning–based seismic waveform denoising models has the potential to yield improvements in signal detection capabilities for networks operating in particularly noisy environments. Recent advancements in the design of these deep learning denoising models have included the incorporation of continuous and discrete wavelet transform functions into the network architecture to improve the learning capabilities and efficiency of said models. These wavelet transform–based seismic denoising models have shown improved denoising capabilities in regions where there is good agreement between the data features present in the training and evaluation datasets. However, questions remain about the overall transportability of these models to other monitoring regions. Here, in this study, we will determine the baseline transportability of a newly developed multilevel wavelet‐transform convolutional neural network (MWCNN) seismic denoising model. We accomplish this by taking a version of the MWCNN denoising model trained on data collected from the Utah region and evaluating its denoising performance on datasets collected from the neighboring Nevada region, which differ with regard to monitoring sensor types and event histories. We find that there is a notable variability in denoising performance related to the degree of similarity between the initial and new target datasets. The most notable difference in denoising performance is the ability of the denoising model to preserve accurate amplitude information associated with the signal energy present in the waveform data. Finally, we evaluate the ability of transfer learning techniques to improve the transportability of the MWCNN denoising model. We find that although there is still a performance gap present in the denoising results of the MWCNN model, transfer learning did yield improved results.

Quinones, Louis [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerial Object Trajectory Classification by Training on Flight Controller Data and Testing on RADAR Generated Tracks

Onboard collision avoidance is needed to enable safe, autonomous flight operations for NASA projects such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), as well as many commercial applications. Real-time aerial object classification will improve onboard collision avoidance algorithm decision making and may reduce unnecessary activation of avoidance systems. This work trains an aircraft trajectory classifier using trajectories from flight controller logs and tests the classifier using RADAR collected trajectories during air to air experiments and ground to air experiments. In contrast to RADAR data, these flight controller logs are relatively abundant, which makes the possibility of substituting flight data for RADAR data an attractive, cost-effective option. The SVM model developed in this work achieved a 79.7% classification accuracy on the first second of radar trajectories of GA, multirotor sUAS, and fixed wing sUAS. Findings from this work indicate that it is feasible to classify sensor collected trajectories using a classifier trained on flight controller data.

Henry Holbrook↗
DOE OSTI2024

Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence Based on Deep Learning Initialization and Homotopy Continuation

Power flow forms the basis of many power system studies. With the increased penetration of renewable energy, grid planners tend to perform multiple power flow simulations under various operating conditions and not just selected snapshots at peak or light load conditions. Getting a converged AC power flow (ACPF) case remains a significant challenge for grid planners especially in large power grid networks. This paper proposes a two-stage approach to improve Newton-Raphson ACPF convergence and was applied to a 6102 bus Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The first stage utilizes a deep learning-based initializer with data re-training. Here a deep neural network (DNN) initializer is developed to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle guesses to aid in power flow convergence. This is because Newton-Raphson ACPF is quite sensitive to the initial conditions and bad initialization could lead to divergence. The DNN initializer includes a data re-training framework that improves the initializer's performance when faced with limited training data. The DNN initializer successfully solved 3,285 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatch and performed better than random forest and DC power flow initialization methods. ACPF cases not solved in this first stage are then passed through a hot-starting algorithm based on homotopy continuation with switched shunt control. The hot-starting algorithm successfully converged 416 cases out of the remaining 614 non-converging ACPF dispatch. In conclusion, the combined two-stage approach achieved a 94.9% success rate, by converging a total of 3,701 cases out of the initial 3,899 unsolved cases.

Deep learning↗