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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2007

NASA Systems Engineering Handbook

This handbook is intended to provide general guidance and information on systems engineering that will be useful to the NASA community. It provides a generic description of Systems Engineering (SE) as it should be applied throughout NASA. A goal of the handbook is to increase awareness and consistency across the Agency and advance the practice of SE. This handbook provides perspectives relevant to NASA and data particular to NASA. The coverage in this handbook is limited to general concepts and generic descriptions of processes, tools, and techniques. It provides information on systems engineering best practices and pitfalls to avoid. There are many Center-specific handbooks and directives as well as textbooks that can be consulted for in-depth tutorials. This handbook describes systems engineering as it should be applied to the development and implementation of large and small NASA programs and projects. NASA has defined different life cycles that specifically address the major project categories, or product lines, which are: Flight Systems and Ground Support (FS&GS), Research and Technology (R&T), Construction of Facilities (CoF), and Environmental Compliance and Restoration (ECR). The technical content of the handbook provides systems engineering best practices that should be incorporated into all NASA product lines. (Check the NASA On-Line Directives Information System (NODIS) electronic document library for applicable NASA directives on topics such as product lines.) For simplicity this handbook uses the FS&GS product line as an example. The specifics of FS&GS can be seen in the description of the life cycle and the details of the milestone reviews. Each product line will vary in these two areas; therefore, the reader should refer to the applicable NASA procedural requirements for the specific requirements for their life cycle and reviews. The engineering of NASA systems requires a systematic and disciplined set of processes that are applied recursively and iteratively for the design, development, operation, maintenance, and closeout of systems throughout the life cycle of the programs and projects.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2009

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic design optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design components of an airframe structure that can be made of metallic and composite materials. The design is obtained as a function of the risk level, or reliability, p. The design method treats uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties as distribution functions, which are defined with mean values and standard deviations. A design constraint or a failure mode is specified as a function of reliability p. Solution to stochastic optimization yields the weight of a structure as a function of reliability p. Optimum weight versus reliability p traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the inverted-S graph corresponded to 50 percent (p = 0.5) probability of success. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponds to unity for reliability p (or p = 1). Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a reliability that approaches zero (p = 0). Reliability can be changed for different components of an airframe structure. For example, the landing gear can be designed for a very high reliability, whereas it can be reduced to a small extent for a raked wingtip. The SDO capability is obtained by combining three codes: (1) The MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, (2) The fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and (3) NASA Glenn Research Center s optimization testbed CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life raked wingtip structure of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of metallic and composite materials.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Directed Acyclic Graphs: A Tool for Understanding the NASA Human Spaceflight System Risks - Human System Risk Board

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding of these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document is a sister document to NASA/TM 20220006812 Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation (1). In that document, the basic guidance for creating and standardizing directed acyclic graphs as tools for cross-risk analysis is provided. This document contains the initial configuration managed DAGs that were created as a result of applying those principles. These initial versions were accepted by the HSRB in January of 2022. Each of the Human System Risks are represented by a DAG that has been reviewed by the larger Human Health and Performance community at NASA including life scientists, physical scientists, physicians, nurses, pharmacists, exercise specialists and more. These results show the starting point for Human System Risk DAGs as shared mental models and communication aids across the boundaries of the various expertise needed to understand and mitigate the human risks in spaceflight. Because they are a starting point, each of these DAGs can be expected to change over time as new or refined evidence becomes available. The process for updating these DAGs can be found in the JSC-66705 Human System Risk Management Plan (2) that is publicly available on the NASA Technical Reports Server.

Erik L. Antonsen↗

DOE OSTI2022

Network analysis uncovers the communication structure of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein identifying sites for immunogen design

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has triggered myriad efforts to understand the structure and dynamics of this complex pathogen. The spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is a significant target for immunogens as it is the means by which the virus enters human cells, while simultaneously sporting mutations responsible for immune escape. These functional and escape processes are regulated by complex molecular-level interactions. Our study presents quantitative insights on domain and residue contributions to allosteric communication, immune evasion, and local- and global-level control of functions through the derivation of a weighted graph representation from all-atom MD simulations. Focusing on the ancestral form and the D614G-variant, we provide evidence of the utility of our approach by guiding the selection of a mutation that alters the spike’s stability. Taken together, the network approach serves as a valuable tool to evaluate communication “hot-spots” in proteins to guide design of stable immunogens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving radiograph analysis throughput through transfer learning and object detection

SIGN Fracture Care International partners with surgeons in low-resource hospitals worldwide to provide access to effective orthopedic care by donating educational materials and innovatively designed surgical implants. Over two decades, SIGN’s Online Surgical Database (SOSD) has grown to contain over 500,000 medical images, with radiographs holding the majority share. One challenge in working with hospitals worldwide is that both the radiographs uploaded to the SOSD and the data entry accompanying the uploads vary in quality. To improve the accuracy of data in the SOSD, we trained a model to detect surgical implants in radiographs. We first developed a tool to automatically detect radiographs, then trained an object detection model to determine the number and placement of surgical implants visible in the radiograph. Active learning was used to generate a training set containing 2,510 radiographs with screws, nails, and plates labeled by bounding boxes. Training a model to simultaneously recognize all three classes of implants gave a low average precision (AP) for the plate class, likely due to the low number of plate instances in our training set and the large variety of surgical plates used by SIGN-partnered surgeons. Applying standard image augmentation techniques to increase the plate count in our training set did not appreciably increase the AP of plate detection. To improve plate detection, we redrew the bounding boxes to account for correlations between the screw and plate classes. Training one model to detect nails and screws and a separate model to detect plates increased the AP of plate detection by 78.8 percentage points. The AP of each class was 80.7% for screws, 93.6% for nails, and 92.6% for plates; meanwhile, the sensitivity was 92% for screws, 86% for nails, and 81% for plates. We show that object detection methods can be used to detect surgical implants in radiographs of varying quality; however, the detection ability is dependent on the type of implant, and some implants, in our case plates, must be treated differently than others. Such tools can improve the throughput of radiograph analysis, assisting physicians and surgeons with the treatment of bone fractures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Detection and Quick Characterization of African Swine Fever Virus Using the VolTRAX Automated Library Preparation Platform

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the causative agent of a severe and highly contagious viral disease affecting domestic and wild swine. The current ASFV pandemic strain has a high mortality rate, severely impacting pig production and, for countries suffering outbreaks, preventing the export of their pig products for international trade. Early detection and diagnosis of ASFV is necessary to control new outbreaks before the disease spreads rapidly. One of the rate-limiting steps to identify ASFV by next-generation sequencing platforms is library preparation. Here, we investigated the capability of the Oxford Nanopore Technologies’ VolTRAX platform for automated DNA library preparation with downstream sequencing on Nanopore sequencing platforms as a proof-of-concept study to rapidly identify the strain of ASFV. Within minutes, DNA libraries prepared using VolTRAX generated near-full genome sequences of ASFV. Thus, our data highlight the use of the VolTRAX as a platform for automated library preparation, coupled with sequencing on the MinION Mk1C for field sequencing or GridION within a laboratory setting. These results suggest a proof-of-concept study that VolTRAX is an effective tool for library preparation that can be used for the rapid and real-time detection of ASFV.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radionuclide-specific Parameters Dataset

The radionuclide-specific parameters dataset is searchable for radiological information for multiple isotopes simultaneously. After selecting radionuclides of interest and the desired parameters, the RAIS will generate a table containing the values, chosen according to an established hierarchy. Results can be downloaded in Excel format. 50 parameters are available, including atomic number, soil to animal transfer coefficients, plant uptake coefficients, half-life, specific activity, and water solubility. Seven primary sources are used to populate the dataset of radiological-specific parameters. These values should be used in cancer risk assessments for the calculation of preliminary remediation goals (PRGs), hazard characterization, and transport modeling. Users can select up to 1000 radionuclides per query. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning with tools for benchmarking against risk-based standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.

Manning, Karessa [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

NASA NTRS2005

Flow-Boiling Critical Heat Flux Experiments Performed in Reduced Gravity

Poor understanding of flow boiling in microgravity has recently emerged as a key obstacle to the development of many types of power generation and advanced life support systems intended for space exploration. The critical heat flux (CHF) is perhaps the most important thermal design parameter for boiling systems involving both heatflux-controlled devices and intense heat removal. Exceeding the CHF limit can lead to permanent damage, including physical burnout of the heat-dissipating device. The importance of the CHF limit creates an urgent need to develop predictive design tools to ensure both the safe and reliable operation of a two-phase thermal management system under the reduced-gravity (like that on the Moon and Mars) and microgravity environments of space. At present, very limited information is available on flow-boiling heat transfer and the CHF under these conditions.

Hasan, Mohammad M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Design, Fabrication, and Performance of Foil Gas Thrust Bearings for Microturbomachinery Applications

A methodology for the design and construction of simple foil thrust bearings intended for parametric performance testing and low marginal costs is presented. Features drawn from a review of the open literature are discussed as they relate to bearing performance. The design of fixtures and tooling required to fabricate foil thrust bearings is presented, using conventional machining processes where possible. A prototype bearing with dimensions drawn from the literature is constructed, with all fabrication steps described. A load-deflection curve for the bearing is presented to illustrate structural stiffness characteristics. Start-top cycles are performed on the bearing at a temperature of 425 C to demonstrate early-life wear patterns. A test of bearing load capacity demonstrates useful performance when compared with data obtained from the open literature.

Dykas, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2025

Limitations and Feasibility of Mini X-Ray Devices in Space Environments

LIMITATIONS AND FEASIBILITY OF MINI X-RAY DEVICES IN SPACE ENVIRONMENTS As space exploration advances toward long-duration missions, reliable medical diagnostic tools become increasingly critical. The miniature x-ray (XR) technology demonstrations by the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) and the Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) aim to assess the feasibility and utility of miniature XR devices in spaceflight. This abstract explores the limitations of current miniature XR systems, the challenges of training crew members, the potential role of clinical decision support systems (CDSS), and the feasibility of ground-based image interpretation. We also propose the integration of miniature XR into other ExMC efforts aimed at identifying the capabilities and resources needed for future exploration class missions. One of the primary challenges with miniature XR devices is the ability to achieve specific anatomical views, particularly in the confined and weightless conditions of a spacecraft. Operators may struggle to acquire diagnostic-quality images when space is limited for proper patient positioning and the volume of the imaging device. Since space radiation and detector limitations may further impact image quality, the flexibility of the operating procedures of these devices will be critical for their success in space applications. CHALLENGES IN TRAINING CREW TO OPERATE IMAGING DEVICES Training in the skills necessary to acquire diagnostic-quality scans may be a barrier for non-clinician crewmembers. The curriculum developed for crew medical officers (CMOs) will require simplification and adaptation to fit into the highly truncated pre-flight training period. Therefore, hands-on familiarization and simulation, both pre-flight and just-in-time training during missions, will be crucial to ensuring the crew can operate the devices in real-life situations. The ability to adjust acquisition parameters must be simplified or made automatic through exam selections on equipment user interfaces, and subject and operator positioning should be assisted with laser guidance and pictorial guides. POTENTIAL FOR CDSS OR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)-ASSISTED CDSS CDSS and AI-assisted CDSS offer significant promise in assisting crew members with limited medical training. These systems could provide real-time feedback on image quality and interpretation, helping to mitigate the risks of human error during space missions. Integrating procedural guidance tools, such as virtual and augmented reality, will support crewmembers in accurately positioning patients and obtaining high-quality images. However, the success of such systems will depend on the development of robust training datasets, integration with spaceflight-rated hardware, and the medical decision-making capabilities of operators. FEASIBILITY OF GROUND INTERPRETATION AND DATA TRANSMISSION Reliance on ground-based interpretation may prove difficult for acute care during exploration class-missions due to delays in transmission with increasing distance from Earth or complete communication blackout periods. In such instances where immediate interpretation for clinical intervention is required, crew must be able to interpret the images independently or utilize AI-based assistance to do so. File sizes for XR exams can also be large if numerous images are acquired and bandwidth constraints may limit data transmissions for both radiography and ultrasound exams. FUTURE WORK AND INTEGRATION INTO THE EVIDENCE LIBRARY Future work proposes integrating miniature XR devices into NASA’s Evidence Library to address medical conditions identified as significant contributors to crew morbidity and mortality. The possibility of combining miniature XR with other imaging modalities, such as ultrasound devices, is also under investigation. In conclusion, while miniature XR technology holds potential for extraterrestrial medical systems, there are significant challenges to overcome. Training, integration of AI tools, dedicated exam protocols for microgravity, and improved data transmission systems will be key to realizing the full benefits of miniature XR technology in space.

A M Nelson↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying common stored product insects using automated deep learning methods

Monitoring stored product insect pests is a common practice for post-harvest management of stored grain and grain-based commodities, which helps ensure product quality from harvest to final consumer. Current methods of sampling and monitoring can be time-consuming, labor-intensive, expensive and require expertise in insect identification. Therefore, this study aims to develop an image-based automated identification system for common stored product insect species using deep-learning methods. Top-down images of the common stored product adult insect species of Rhyzopertha dominica, Cryptolestes ferrugineus, Tribolium castaneum, Sitophilus oryzae, and Oryzaephilus surinamensis were acquired and analyzed. Deep learning-based, state-of-the-art Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) models (ResNet-50, MobileNet-v2, DarkNet-53, and EfficientNet-b0) were fine-tuned with a transfer learning approach to classify the insect species. All models were able to correctly identify the insect species with at least 96% accuracy and with few misclassifications. One issue with trained CNNs is that they do not explain the reasoning for the classification and are often called a “black box”. Therefore, visualization methods called Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) were implemented to explore the black box network. The Grad-CAM uses heat maps to highlight the major image features that the network focused on to make insect species predictions. The Grad-CAM verifies the network's prediction and also helps improve network performance. This study contributes to the overall goal of developing a camera-based system for monitoring stored grain insects. As a result, the developed system would empower warehouse, flour mills, and other food facilities with a tool to quickly and accurately identify insect species in stored product environments and could be implemented as part of a close to real-time monitoring system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physical bioenergetics: Energy fluxes, budgets, and constraints in cells

Cells are the basic units of all living matter which harness the flow of energy to drive the processes of life. While the biochemical networks involved in energy transduction are well-characterized, the energetic costs and constraints for specific cellular processes remain largely unknown. In particular, what are the energy budgets of cells? What are the constraints and limits energy flows impose on cellular processes? Do cells operate near these limits, and if so how do energetic constraints impact cellular functions? Physics has provided many tools to study nonequilibrium systems and to define physical limits, but applying these tools to cell biology remains a challenge. Physical bioenergetics, which resides at the interface of nonequilibrium physics, energy metabolism, and cell biology, seeks to understand how much energy cells are using, how they partition this energy between different cellular processes, and the associated energetic constraints. In this work, we review recent advances and discuss open questions and challenges in physical bioenergetics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a diabetes risk score among two populations

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a practical diabetes risk score amongst two heterogenous populations, a working population and a non-working population. Study population 1 (n = 2,089) participated in a large-scale screening program offered to retired workers to discover previously undetected/incipient chronic illness. Study population 2 (n = 3,293) was part of a Colorado worksite wellness program health risk assessment. We assessed the relationship between a continuous diabetes risk score at baseline and development of diabetes in the future using logistic regression. Receiver operating curves and sensitivity/specificity of the models were calculated. Across both study populations, we observed that participants with diabetes at follow-up had higher diabetes risk scores at baseline than participants who did not have diabetes at follow-up. On average, the odds ratio of developing diabetes in the future was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.26–1.50, p < 0.0001) for study population 1 and 1.68 (95% CI: 1.45–1.95, p-value < 0.0001) for study population 2. These findings indicate that the diabetes risk score may be generalizable to diverse individuals, and thus potentially a population level diabetes screening tool. Minimally-invasive diabetes risk scores can aid in the identification of sub-populations of individuals at risk for diabetes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Sufficiency and necessity in reliability modeling

Limitations of current analytic techniques in estimating the reliability of life-critical electronics systems are discussed. A new framework for specification of recovery and fault-handling submodels is suggested, and is shown through several examples to provide substantially improved modeling accuracy and flexibility. Implementation of the new technique in an X-windows based system, XHARP, is also described. The implementation allows for an automated behavioral decomposition of full system models, heretofore unavailable in such tools.

Geist, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1993

Integrated design and manufacturing for the high speed civil transport

In June 1992, Georgia Tech's School of Aerospace Engineering was awarded a NASA University Space Research Association (USRA) Advanced Design Program (ADP) to address 'Integrated Design and Manufacturing for the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)' in its graduate aerospace systems design courses. This report summarizes the results of the five courses incorporated into the Georgia Tech's USRA ADP program. It covers AE8113: Introduction to Concurrent Engineering, AE4360: Introduction to CAE/CAD, AE4353: Design for Life Cycle Cost, AE6351: Aerospace Systems Design One, and AE6352: Aerospace Systems Design Two. AE8113: Introduction to Concurrent Engineering was an introductory course addressing the basic principles of concurrent engineering (CE) or integrated product development (IPD). The design of a total system was not the objective of this course. The goal was to understand and define the 'up-front' customer requirements, their decomposition, and determine the value objectives for a complex product, such as the high speed civil transport (HSCT). A generic CE methodology developed at Georgia Tech was used for this purpose. AE4353: Design for Life Cycle Cost addressed the basic economic issues for an HSCT using a robust design technique, Taguchi's parameter design optimization method (PDOM). An HSCT economic sensitivity assessment was conducted using a Taguchi PDOM approach to address the robustness of the basic HSCT design. AE4360: Introduction to CAE/CAD permitted students to develop and utilize CAE/CAD/CAM knowledge and skills using CATIA and CADAM as the basic geometric tools. AE6351: Aerospace Systems Design One focused on the conceptual design refinement of a baseline HSCT configuration as defined by Boeing, Douglas, and NASA in their system studies. It required the use of NASA's synthesis codes FLOPS and ACSYNT. A criterion called the productivity index (P.I.) was used to evaluate disciplinary sensitivities and provide refinements of the baseline HSCT configuration. AE6352: Aerospace Systems Design Two was a continuation of Aerospace Systems Design One in which wing concepts were researched and analyzed in more detail. FLOPS and ACSYNT were again used at the system level while other off-the-shelf computer codes were used for more detailed wing disciplinary analysis and optimization. The culmination of all efforts and submission of this report conclude the first year's efforts of Georgia Tech's NASA USRA ADP. It will hopefully provide the foundation for next year's efforts concerning continuous improvement of integrated design and manufacturing for the HSCT.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2015

Comments on the MIT Assessment of the Mars One Plan

The MIT assessment of the Mars One mission plan reveals design assumptions that would cause significant difficulties. Growing crops in the crew chamber produces excessive oxygen levels. The assumed in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) equipment has too low a Technology Readiness Level (TRL). The required spare parts cause a large and increasing launch mass logistics burden. The assumed International Space Station (ISS) Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) technologies were developed for microgravity and therefore are not suitable for Mars gravity. Growing food requires more mass than sending food from Earth. The large number of spares is due to the relatively low reliability of ECLS and the low TRL of ISRU. The Mars One habitat design is similar to past concepts but does not incorporate current knowledge. The MIT architecture analysis tool for long-term settlements on the Martian surface includes an ECLS system simulation, an ISRU sizing model, and an analysis of required spares. The MIT tool showed the need for separate crop and crew chambers, the large spare parts logistics, that crops require more mass than Earth food, and that more spares are needed if reliability is lower. That ISRU has low TRL and ISS ECLS was designed for microgravity are well known. Interestingly, the results produced by the architecture analysis tool - separate crop chamber, large spares mass, large crop chamber mass, and low reliability requiring more spares - were also well known. A common approach to ECLS architecture analysis is to build a complex model that is intended to be all-inclusive and is hoped will help solve all design problems. Such models can struggle to replicate obvious and well-known results and are often unable to answer unanticipated new questions. A better approach would be to survey the literature for background knowledge and then directly analyze the important problems.

Mars mission↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O (sup 1) D (Deuterium) to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗