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Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the ForWarn System for Monitoring of Forest Disturbances in the Conterminous United States

This presentation discusses MODIS vegetation phenology products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) tool for near real time regional forest disturbance detection and surveillance at regional to national scales. The ForWarn EWS is being developed by the USDA Forest Service NASA, ORNL, and USGS to aid federal and state forest health management activities. ForWarn employs multiple historical land surface phenology products that are derived from MODIS MOD13 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The latter is temporally processed into phenology products with the Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) and the Phenological Parameter Estimation Tool (PPET) software produced at NASA Stennis Space Center. TSPT is used to effectively noise reduce, fuse, and void interpolate MODIS NDVI data. PPET employs TSPT-processed NDVI time series data as an input, outputting multiple vegetation phenology products at a 232 meter resolution for 2000 to 2011, including NDVI magnitude and day of year products for seven key points along the growing season (peak of growing season and the minima, 20%, and 80% of the peak NDVI for both the left and right side of growing season), cumulative NDVI integral products for the most active part of the growing season and sequentially across the growing season at 8 day intervals, and maximum value NDVI products composited at 24 day intervals in which each product date has 8 days of overlap between the previous and following product dates. MODIS NDVI phenology products are also used to compute nationwide NRT forest change products refreshed every 8 days. These include percent change in forest NDVI products that compare the current NDVI from USGS eMODIS products to historical MODIS MOD13 NDVI. For each date, three forest change products are produced using three different maximum value NDVI baselines (from the previous year, three previous years, and all previous years). All change products are output with a rainbow color table in which forests with the most severe NDVI decreases are assigned hot colors (yellow to red) and forests with prominent NDVI increases are assigned cold colors (blue tones). All mentioned products have been integrated as data layers into ForWarn s geospatial data viewer known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The latter is used to view and assess the context of the mentioned forest change products with respect to ancillary data layers, such as land cover, elevation, hydrologic features, climatic data, storm data, aerial disturbance surveys, fire data, and land ownership. The FCAV also includes a temporal NDVI profiler for viewing phenological change in multi-year NDVI associated with known or suspected regionally apparent forest disturbances (e.g., from fire and insects). ForWarn forest change products have been used to detect, track, and assess several biotic and abiotic regional forest disturbance events across the country, including ephemeral and longer lasting damage from storms, drought, and insects. Such change products are most effective for viewing severe disturbances affecting multiple MODIS pixels. MODIS vegetation phenology products contribute vital current information on forest conditions to the ForWarn system and this role is expected to grow as these products are refined and derivative products are added.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Highlights of Recent Developments in the International GPS Service and Perspectives for Future Directions

In December 1998, the IGS Governing Board officially changed the name of this IAG service from 'International GPS Service for Geodynamics to simply the 'International GPS Service'. This change of name reflects the fact that today the IGS supports numerous scientific projects outside the traditional geodetic and geodynamic disciplines. A number of IGS projects and working groups have been established, each concentrating on a particular science application, such as the ionosphere, atmosphere, reference frame, precise time transfer, etc. These activities are enabled and simulated by the IGS and directly contribute to the continuing development of the service. The IGS is currently poised to respond to evolving user requirements that focus on timeliness and reliability of data and products, particularly in support of a slate of Low Earth Orbiter missions over the next decade. Perspectives on the future of the IGS will be developed based on current directions as well as anticipated external influences, such as GPS satellite modernization, GLONASS, availability of global communications, and plans for the European GALILEO (Global Navigation Satellite System - GNSS). We will address development of user friendly interfaces and IGS product tutorials.

Neilan, R.↗

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

"Gate Turnaround" plays a key role in the National Air Space (NAS) gate-to-gate performance by receiving aircraft when they reach their destination airport, and delivering aircraft into the NAS upon departing from the gate and subsequent takeoff. The time spent at the gate in meeting the planned departure time is influenced by many factors and often with considerable uncertainties. Uncertainties such as weather, early or late arrivals, disembarking and boarding passengers, unloading/reloading cargo, aircraft logistics/maintenance services and ground handling, traffic in ramp and movement areas for taxi-in and taxi-out, and departure queue management for takeoff are likely encountered on the daily basis. The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept is leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of the gate operations, which include arrival, at the gate, departure based on constraints (e.g., available gates at the arrival, ground crew and equipment for the gate turnaround, and over capacity demand upon departure), and collaborative decision-making. The IGTM concept provides effective information services and decision tools to the stakeholders, such as airline dispatchers, gate agents, airport operators, ramp controllers, and air traffic control (ATC) traffic managers and ground controllers to mitigate uncertainties arising from both nominal and off-nominal airport gate operations. IGTM will provide NAS stakeholders customized decision making tools through a User Interface (UI) by leveraging historical data (Big Data), net-enabled Air Traffic Management (ATM) live data, and analytics according to dependencies among NAS parameters for the stakeholders to manage and optimize the NAS performance in the gate turnaround domain. The application will give stakeholders predictable results based on the past and current NAS performance according to selected decision trees through the UI. The predictable results are generated based on analysis of the unique airport attributes (e.g., runway, taxiway, terminal, and gate configurations and tenants), and combined statistics from past data and live data based on a specific set of ATM concept-of-operations (ConOps) and operational parameters via systems analysis using an analytic network learning model. The IGTM tool will then bound the uncertainties that arise from nominal and off-nominal operational conditions with direct assessment of the gate turnaround status and the impact of a certain operational decision on the NAS performance, and provide a set of recommended actions to optimize the NAS performance by allowing stakeholders to take mitigation actions to reduce uncertainty and time deviation of planned operational events. An IGTM prototype was developed at NASA Ames Simulation Laboratories (SimLabs) to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of the concept. A data network, using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM)-like messaging application using the ActiveMQ message service, was connected to the simulated data warehouse, scheduled flight plans, a fast-time airport simulator, and a graphic UI. A fast-time simulation was integrated with the data warehouse or Big Data/Analytics (BAI), scheduled flight plans from Aeronautical Operational Control AOC, IGTM Controller, and a UI via a SWIM-like data messaging network using the ActiveMQ message service, illustrated in Figure 1, to demonstrate selected use-cases showing the benefits of the IGTM concept on the NAS performance.

Efficent ATM systems↗

Outcomes of a NASA Workshop to Develop a Portfolio of Low Latency Datasets for Time-Sensitive Applications

It is widely accepted that time-sensitive remote sensing data serve the needs of decision makers in the applications communities and yet to date, a comprehensive portfolio of NASA low latency datasets has not been available. This paper will describe the NASA low latency, or Near-Real Time (NRT), portfolio, how it was developed and plans to make it available online through a portal that leverages the existing EOSDIS capabilities such as the Earthdata Search Client (https:search.earthdata.nasa.gov), the Common Metadata Repository (CMR) and the Global Imagery Browse Service (GIBS). This paper will report on the outcomes of a NASA Workshop to Develop a Portfolio of Low Latency Datasets for Time-Sensitive Applications (27-29 September 2016 at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton VA). The paper will also summarize findings and recommendations from the meeting outlining perceived shortfalls and opportunities for low latency research and application science.

remote sensing↗

Respirator Cartridge Performance on Mixed Vapors from Hanford Tank Headspaces and Exhausters - 20427

Between 2016 and 2018, the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor - Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) - conducted a series of tests of air-purifying respirator (APR) chemical cartridges commonly used at Hanford tank farms to determine the period of time for which the cartridges would provide adequate performance when used in APRs and powered-air-purifying respirators (PAPRs) to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of vapors exiting tank headspaces. Although cartridge manufacturers provide service life estimating tools for individual chemical compounds, the projected performance of these cartridges on complex vapor mixtures is not available, and the adequacy of APRs for tank farm applications represents an important workforce concern. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing cartridge service life. The primary function of the WRPS Cartridge Test Program was to obtain objective data to determine service lives for the APR and PAPR cartridges used at Hanford tank farms. WRPS contracted with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to analyze the test data and offer an independent analysis of and recommendations based on respirator cartridge performance. A total of 28 APR and 10 PAPR cartridge tests were conducted between 2016 and 2018 on 12 different tank headspaces and tank farm exhauster slipstreams. Two APR cartridges from SCOTT (now 3M) and two PAPR cartridges from MSA Safety, Inc. and 3M were evaluated using a cartridge testing system specifically designed to measure and monitor test conditions and sample cartridge inlet and outlet vapor streams for important chemical compounds. Testing focused on analysis of approximately 61 tank vapor chemicals of potential concern (COPCs) that have been previously detected in tank vapors at levels above 10% of their occupational exposure limits (OELs). Each test was conducted over 16 hours of run time. Evidence of chemical breakthrough was assessed by comparing inlet and outlet COPC concentrations over the duration of each test. The breakthrough threshold was normally defined as exceeding 10% of the compounds OEL at the cartridge outlet. Ammonia breakthrough was observed in a majority of the cartridge tests and occurred earlier than breakthrough of any other chemical compound. Several other COPCs did exhibit breakthrough behavior, including mercury, 1,3-butadiene, furan, 2,5 dihydrofuran, and N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), but only in a very limited number of cartridge tests and only after ammonia breakthrough had occurred. In addition, tests results suggest that breakthrough of some of these COPCs may have been affected by competition with and breakthrough of other non-COPC organics, such as ethanol and acetone, with substantially lower toxicological hazard. Comparison of cartridge manufacturers' service life estimates with the experimentally derived breakthrough times indicates that manufacturers' estimates are generally conservative, even in the presence of the complex mixed vapor streams experienced in these tests. With consideration of appropriate safety margins, these results provide valuable insights on cartridge performance to inform industrial hygiene professionals in establishing appropriate cartridge change-out schedules for APR and PAPR use in the Hanford tank farms. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NetGraf: An End-to-End Learning NetworkMonitoring Service (NetGraf) v1

NetGraf is a novel end-to-end learning monitoring system that utilizes current monitoring tools, merges multiple data sources into one dashboard for easy use, and provides machine learning libraries to analyze the data and perform real-time anomaly findings. Using a database backend, NetGraf can learn performance trends and show users if network performance has degraded. We demonstrate how NetGraf can easily be deployed through automation services and linked to multiple monitoring sources to collect data. Via the machine learning innovation and merging various data sources, NetGraf aims to fulfill the need for holistic learning network telemetry monitoring. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first-ever end-to-end learning monitoring service. We demonstrate its use on two network setups to showcase its impact.

Mohammed, Bashir↗

Service offerings and interfaces for the ACTS network of Earth stations

The Advanced Communications Satellite (ACTS) is capable of two modes of communication. Mode 1 is a mesh network of Earth stations using baseband-switched, time-division multiple-access (BBS-TDMA) and hopping beams. Mode 2 is a mesh network using satellite-switched, time-division multiple-access (SS-TDMA) and fixed (or hopping) beams. The purpose of this paper is to present the functional requirements and the design of the ACTS Mode 1 Earth station terrestrial interface. Included among the requirements are that: (1) the interface support standard telecommunications service offerings (i.e., voice, video and data at rates ranging from 9.6 kbps to 44 Mbps); (2) the interface support the unique design characteristics of the ACTS communications systems (e.g., the real time demand assignment of satellite capacity); and (3) the interface support test hardware capable of validating ACTS communications processes. The resulting interface design makes use of an appropriate combination of T1 or T3 multiplexers and a small central office (maximum capacity 56 subscriber lines per unit).

Coney, Thom A.↗

Advanced information processing system: The Army Fault-Tolerant Architecture detailed design overview

The Army Avionics Research and Development Activity (AVRADA) is pursuing programs that would enable effective and efficient management of large amounts of situational data that occurs during tactical rotorcraft missions. The Computer Aided Low Altitude Night Helicopter Flight Program has identified automated Terrain Following/Terrain Avoidance, Nap of the Earth (TF/TA, NOE) operation as key enabling technology for advanced tactical rotorcraft to enhance mission survivability and mission effectiveness. The processing of critical information at low altitudes with short reaction times is life-critical and mission-critical necessitating an ultra-reliable/high throughput computing platform for dependable service for flight control, fusion of sensor data, route planning, near-field/far-field navigation, and obstacle avoidance operations. To address these needs the Army Fault Tolerant Architecture (AFTA) is being designed and developed. This computer system is based upon the Fault Tolerant Parallel Processor (FTPP) developed by Charles Stark Draper Labs (CSDL). AFTA is hard real-time, Byzantine, fault-tolerant parallel processor which is programmed in the ADA language. This document describes the results of the Detailed Design (Phase 2 and 3 of a 3-year project) of the AFTA development. This document contains detailed descriptions of the program objectives, the TF/TA NOE application requirements, architecture, hardware design, operating systems design, systems performance measurements and analytical models.

Harper, Richard E.↗

Electrical Systems of Pumped Storage Hydropower Plants: Electrical Generation, Machines, Power Electronics, and Power Systems

Adjustable-speed (AS) pumped storage hydropower (PSH) technology has the potential to become a large, consistent contributor to grid stability enabling higher penetrations of wind and solar energy on the future U.S. power system. AS-PSH has high-value characteristics, such as fast response to provide ancillary services to the grid, because it is a power converter interface with the grid (like battery storage), but at the same time it has the energy content large enough to supply both short-term (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (minutes-to-hours) of energy needs, like more conventional power plants. However, designs must be optimized to lower the capital expenditure (CapEx) and to provide a high-quality grid interface capability (e.g. power quality, ancillary service provider, fault-tolerant or fault ride-through capability), which is a primary factor in the acceptance of AS-PSH into a utility’s generation mix. This CapEx will be greatly affected by the cost savings associated with the civil structure, turbine design, power electronics, control systems, or unique generator designs. A holistic design must be considered to get a full picture of the benefits of the technology proposed. The AS-PSH can be controlled to reduce the impact of transient disturbance on a power system and at the same time can be controlled to minimized subsequent component fatigue and potential oscillation modes within the plant, with the overall impact in reducing the operational expenditures (OpEx).Generating clean power to meet standards such as Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 519 and International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 1000-3-2 will be a continuing challenge. For many technology developers, however, improved AS-PSH technologies will become a key component of generator-storage systems of the future given the prospects of increased performance and decreasing costs, and the ever-increasing penetration of renewables (e.g wind power and solar power).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Between a Map and a Data Rod

A Digital Divide has long stood between how NASA and other satellite-derived data are typically archived (time-step arrays or maps) and how hydrology and other point-time series oriented communities prefer to access those data. In essence, the desired method of data access is orthogonal to the way the data are archived. Our approach to bridging the Divide is part of a larger NASA-supported data rods project to enhance access to and use of NASA and other data by the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) Hydrologic Information System (HIS) and the larger hydrology community. Our main objective was to determine a way to reorganize data that is optimal for these communities. Two related objectives were to optimally reorganize data in a way that (1) is operational and fits in and leverages the existing Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) operational environment and (2) addresses the scaling up of data sets available as time series from those archived at the GES DISC to potentially include those from other Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) data archives. Through several prototype efforts and lessons learned, we arrived at a non-database solution that satisfied our objectivesconstraints. We describe, in this presentation, how we implemented the operational production of pre-generated data rods and, considering the tradeoffs between length of time series (or number of time steps), resources needed, and performance, how we implemented the operational production of on-the-fly (virtual) data rods. For the virtual data rods, we leveraged a number of existing resources, including the NASA Giovanni Cache and NetCDF Operators (NCO) and used data cubes processed in parallel. Our current benchmark performance for virtual generation of data rods is about a years worth of time series for hourly data (9,000 time steps) in 90 seconds. Our approach is a specific implementation of the general optimal strategy of reorganizing data to match the desired means of access. Results from our project have already significantly extended NASA data to the large and important hydrology user community that has been, heretofore, mostly unable to easily access and use NASA data.

machine learning↗

Causes of high pressure compressor deterioration in service

The high mechanical reliability and low deterioration rate of the JT9D high-pressure compressor results in long utilization without exceeding engine operational limits. The increasing cost and decreasing supply of fuel have focused attention on the fuel burned implications of such high time use without refurbishment. The paper presents the results of JT9D high pressure compressor studies. The mechanical deterioration of the JT9D high-pressure compressor gaspath parts versus increasing service usage, documented from inspection of service parts, is presented and discussed including changes in airfoil roughness, blade length, airfoil contour and outer air seal trench characteristics. An estimate of the performance loss versus usage is related to each type of damage. The combined estimated high-pressure compressor performance loss for all mechanisms determined from part inspection is compared to historical engine test data to establish the validity of the predicted loss levels. The effect of cold section refurbishment on engine fuel consumption recovery and the results of an optimization study to determine the appropriate interval for high pressure compressor refurbishment are also reported.

Richardson, J. H.↗

Satellite Repair Program

NASA-Goddard's Satellite Repair Program counts among its major achievements the successful use of welding in servicing equipment employed in the Flight Support System (FSS) structures addressed by the the Solar Maximum Repair Mission of 1984. The FSS berthing and positioning ring will again be employed with the Space Shuttle for the anticipated upgrading of the Hubble Space Telescope; the Explorer Platform (EP) mission will also use the FSS during the planned on-orbit exchange of the EUV Explorer payload for an X-ray Timing Explorer payload. The EP, to which attention is presently given, is the first spacecraft designed to be entirely serviceable by intravehicular activity or EVA.

Davis, Robert E.↗

Tracing Service for Tracing-Driven Glidein Optimizations

Glideins, also known as pilots, play a pivotal role in the GlideinWMS framework: they provide tailored execution environments for user jobs to run on diverse, complex resources in a distributed setting. The framework includes several heuristics that determine the behavior of a Glidein such as how long to wait for new jobs, the wait time before a Glidein terminates etc., However, being aware of resources utilized and time exhausted during a Glidein failure and resubmission, for example, can be invaluable for its optimization. Our idea is to add a tracing service to the Glidein that will provide a closer observation of the end-to-end progress of a Glidein’s milestones and facilitates a better understanding of the overall framework as well as its reliability. The tracing service will not only gather more information about the Glidein itself to make way for optimizations but also allow user jobs to do the same.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Alaska Ecological Conservation: Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Recent Changes in River Ice Phenology and Its Impacts on Caribou Migration

Each fall, caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in the Western Arctic Herd migrate hundreds of kilometers across northwestern Alaska to acquire seasonal resources and reach wintering grounds. Various rivers intersect migration paths, and caribou can only cross over open water or high-ice extents but are unable to cross rivers in stages of partial freezing. Recent temperature increases in Alaska can alter the timing and duration of ice formation periods, impeding migratory patterns. The Massachusetts NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service in Alaska to detect river ice onset dates and formation periods using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Landsat 9 Operational Land Imager-2, Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar and Sentinel-2A/B MultiSpectral Instrument imagery in Google Earth Engine. This feasibility analysis measured ice coverage using the Normalized Difference Infrared Index, Relative Difference River Ice, and Vertical-Vertical/Vertical-Horizontal backscatter values based on the spectral and surface characteristics of rivers. The team produced annual freezing timelines, time series plots, and maps at three river stretches to analyze river ice phenology changes. Radar imagery assessed ice coverage more accurately, while optical imagery better identified ice onset dates. Meanwhile indices were unable to robustly establish ice formation thresholds across the study period. These study results can help the National Park Service to better evaluate spatiotemporal migratory shifts and contextualize recent regional caribou declines.

river phenology↗

Modular Software Interfaces for Revolutionary Flexibility in Space Operations

To make revolutionary improvements in exploration, space systems need to be flexible, realtime reconfigurable, and able to trade data transparently among themselves and mission operations. Onboard operations systems, space assembly coordination and EVA systems in exploration and construction all require real-time modular reconfigurability and data sharing. But NASA's current exploration systems are still largely legacies from hastily-developed, one-off Apollo-era practices. Today's rovers, vehicles, spacesuits, space stations, and instruments are not able to plug-and-play, Lego-like: into different combinations. Point-to-point dominates - individual suit to individual vehicle, individual instrument to rover. All are locally optimized, all unique, each of the data interfaces has been recoded for each possible combination. This will be an operations and maintenance nightmare in the much larger Project Constellation system of systems. This legacy approach does not scale to the hundreds of networked space components needed for space construction and for new, space-based approaches to Earth-Moon operations. By comparison, battlefield information management systems, which are considered critical to military force projection, have long since abandoned a point-to-point approach to systems integration. From a system-of-systems viewpoint, a clean-sheet redesign of the interfaces of all exploration systems is a necessary prerequisite before designing the interfaces of the individual exploration systems. Existing communications and Global Information Grid and middleware technologies are probably sufficient for command and control and information interfaces, with some hardware and time-delay modifications for space environments. NASA's future advanced space operations must also be information and data compatible with aerospace operations and surveillance systems being developed by other US Government agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Aviation Administration and Department of Defense. This paper discusses fundamental system-of-systems infrastructure: approaches and architectures for modular plug-and-play software interfaces for revolutionary improvements in flexibility, modularity, robustness, ease of maintenance, reconfigurability, safety and productivity. Starting with middleware, databases, and mobile communications technologies, our technical challenges will be to apply these ideas to the requirements of constellations of space systems and to implement them initially on prototype space hardware. This is necessary to demonstrate an integrated information sharing architecture and services. It is a bottom-up approach, one that solves the problem of space operations data integration. Exploration demands uniform software mechanisms for application information interchange, and the corresponding uniformly available software services to enhance these mechanisms. We will examine the issues in plug-and-play, real-time-configurable systems, including common definition and management and tracking of data and information among many different space systems. Different field test approaches are discussed, including the use of the International Space Station and terrestrial analog mission operations at field sites.

Glass, Brian↗

Recent Progress at the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS)

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) is experiencing significant growth. New stations are being built and brought into operation, expanding the spatial and temporal coverage of the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) observations. Some of these stations are multi-technique Core Sites that allow us to exploit the combined strengths of different geodetic space techniques. New satellites are strengthening the ILRS contribution to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF), and expanding the spectrum of satellite applications supported by the ILRS. New analysis, modeling, and data processing techniques continue to improve the science products. New campaigns are continuing to expand SLR applications into relativity and the study of non-gravitational forces. The ILRS is currently participating in the Galileo for Science campaign (G4S_2.0 project), funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI), which aims to perform a set of measurements in the field of gravitation with the Galileo satellites, taking advantage of the accuracy of the on-board atomic clocks and, in particular, of GSAT0201and GSAT0202 by exploiting their relatively high eccentricity (~0.16). New activities underway in Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR), with the imminent launch and deployment of the upcoming Next Generation Lunar Retroreflector - 1 (NGLR-1) to the lunar surface. Some new satellites supported by the ILRS are now exploring means of capturing Space Debris, while some ILRS stations run local laser ranging projects to track space debris, contributing to the maintenance of various data catalogs. Time transfer experiments are also expanding the application of laser ranging, linking two fully characterized optical clocks at different locations with SLR (Einstein Synchronization) providing measurements of height differences, demonstrating the feasibility of a physical height system. Two-way and one-way transponders activity has been underway since the LASSO experiment in the 1990’s. More experiments are underway or planned. Applications include time and frequency transfer and clock synchronization between ground and space, interplanetary laser ranging, and fundamental physics. This presentation will give an update on ILRS activities and the impact that these activities have had and will have on ILRS data products.

Lunar Laser Ranging↗

National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach

We examine the interrelationships of national forest timber bid and log export prices for Douglas-fir (Region 6) in 2003–2021 and loblolly pine (Region 8) using time-series stationarity and bounds-testing approaches. The analysis shows the difference in time series properties across different geographies and time scales. Bid prices for these dominant species of timber in each of two Forest Service regions are found to be stationary, while log export prices for those same species appear to be non-stationary. Bounds testing conducted with autoregressive distributed lag modeling methods provides strong evidence for a cointegrating relationship between timber bid prices and log export prices in Forest Service Region 6. In Region 8, evidence for a cointegrating relationship was weak. Here, the share of salvage wood in national forest timber sales is a statistically significant control variable in all models estimated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Typology of Quantum-Classical Faults

This paper introduces an extended taxonomy of faults specific to hybrid quantum-classical systems, addressing the unique challenges that arise from integrating quantum accelerators into high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructures. Building on the foundational fault classification by Avizienis et al., we incorporate fault types unique to quantum computing-such as qubit decoherence, spontaneous gate errors, and photon loss-alongside traditional and human-induced faults including development errors, operational mistakes, and malicious attacks. Our taxonomy classifies faults by their origin (natural vs. human-made), intent (accidental, deliberate non-malicious, or malicious), system boundaries (internal vs. external), and persistence (transient to permanent). We also explore how different architectural integration patterns-ranging from tight coupling to loose on-premise and cloud-based configurations-shape the manifestation and propagation of faults. These scenarios are analyzed in terms of timing mismatches, interface inconsistencies, and security threats such as data tampering and denial-of-service attacks. Through this fault-centric lens, we aim to support the co-design of dependable quantum-classical systems and highlight the critical role that integration strategies play in ensuring reproducibility, resilience, and security across hybrid computing platforms.

Giusto, Edorado [University of Naples Federico II,↗