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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.↗

On Expected Value Strong Controllability

The Probabilistic Simple Temporal Network (PSTN) generalizes Simple Temporal Networks with Uncertainty (STNUs) by introducing probability distributions over the timing of uncontrollable timepoints. PSTNs are controllable if there is a strategy to execute the controllable timepoints while bounding the risk of violating any constraint to a small value. If this risk bound can't be satisfied, PSTNs are not considered controllable. We introduce the Expected Value Probabilistic SimpleTemporal Network (EPSTN), which extends PSTNs by including a benefit to the satisfaction of temporal constraints. We study the problem of Expected Value Strong Controllability (EvSC) of EPSTNs, which seeks a schedule maximizing the expected value of satisfied constraints. We solve the EvSC problem by extending a previously developed linear program, combined with search over constraints to violate at execution time. We describe conditions under which the solution to this linear program is the maximum expected value schedule. We then show how to search for constraints to discard, using the linear program at the core of the search. While the general problem is shown to be exponential, we conclude by providing several methods to bound the complexity of search.

Planning↗

A Joint Analysis of GPS Displacement and GRACE Geopotential Data for Simultaneous Estimation of Geocenter Motion and Gravitational Field

Gravitational potential data from GRACE are being used to study mass redistribution within and between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and solid Earth. The GRACE data are made available in a reference frame with its origin at the center of mass of the Earth system (geocenter) while many other geophysical models and data sets refer to a reference frame attached to the Earth's surface. Changes in the offset between these reference frames (geocenter motion) must be accounted for when GRACE data are used to quantify surface mass changes. In this study, we developed a technique for co‐estimation of geocenter motion and gravitational potential field seamlessly from degree 1 to 90 by simultaneously inverting a set of globally‐distributed GPS displacement time series and the temporally‐varying GRACE gravity data. We found that the effect of geocenter motion was evident particularly in the GPS time series of horizontal displacements. Our estimates of geocenter motion are most consistent with the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) results within 1 mm in X and Z components and a submillimeter in Y component, when compared to monthly variability averaged over the period of 2003–2016. The overall magnitude of the degree‐1 (l = 1) surface mass load is estimated to be ~3 cm in equivalent water height annually migrating south‐westward from Europe (December–January) to the South Pacific (June–July). Our results also show that dense GPS network data improve water storage recovery in major river basins in the United States and Europe by contributing significantly to the recovery of higher‐degree (l ≥ ~20) geopotential coefficients.

Razeghi, Mahdiyeh↗

A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗

Modeling the East-West Asymmetry of Energetic Particle Fluence in Large Solar Energetic Particle Events Using the iPATH Model

It has been noted that in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, the peak intensities show an East-West asymmetry with respect to the source flare locations. Using the 2D improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, we investigate the origin of this longitudinal trend. We consider multiple cases with different solar wind speeds and eruption speeds of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and fit the longitudinal distributions of time-averaged fluence by symmetric/asymmetric Gaussian functions with three time intervals of 8, 24 and 48 hr after the flare onset time respectively. The simulation results are compared with a statistical study of three-spacecraft events. We suggest that the East-West asymmetry of SEP fluence and peak intensity can be primarily caused the combined effect of an extended shock acceleration process and the evolution of magnetic field connection to the shock front. Our simulations show that the solar wind speed and the CME speed are important factors determining the East-West fluence asymmetry.

Zheyi Ding↗

Low Latency Flux and Concentration Datasets in Support of Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Based on NASA's GEOS Modeling and Data Assimilation System

We present efforts to develop space-based greenhouse gas monitoring systems that can provide low latency information and traceability to independent observations. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO2 mixing ratio. When OCO-2 data are not available, concentration fields are further informed by a bottom-up flux package based on remotely sensed fire radiative power, nighttime lights, and vegetation reflectance combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of this dataset supports evaluation with independent aircraft data, helping to ensure transparency of remotely sensed data products. These quasi-operational data are currently produced 2-3 months behind real time and are distributed via NASA and international dashboard services to a variety of end users. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the system as well as remaining data gaps and modeling challenges. We also highlight the application of this dataset for detecting emissions anomalies associated with COVID-19 and comparing against independent emissions estimates. Finally, we highlight a new NASA initiative called the Earth Information System (EIS), which aims to support open science and applications by leveraging emerging cloud computing capabilities to increase access to NASA’s greenhouse gas datasets, opportunities for co-development, and transparency in methods for analysis and flux attribution.

Lesley Ott↗

Comparative Analysis of Empirical and Machine Learning Models for Chla Extraction Using Sentinel-2 and Landsat OLI Data: Opportunities, Limitations, and Challenges

Remote retrieval of near-surface chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration in small inland waters is challenging due to substantial optical interferences of various water constituents and uncertainties in the atmospheric correction (AC) process. Although various algorithms have been developed to estimate Chla from moderate-resolution terrestrial missions (∼10–60 m), the production of both accurate distribution maps and time series of Chla has proven challenging, limiting the use of remote analyses for lake monitoring. Here, we develop a support vector regression (SVR) model, which uses satellite-derived remote-sensing reflectance spectra () from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images as input for Chla retrieval in a representative eutrophic prairie lake, Buffalo Pound Lake (BPL), Saskatchewan, Canada. Validated against in situ Chla from seven ice-free seasons (N ∼ 200; 2014–2020), the SVR model outperformed both locally tuned, -fed empirical models (Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index, 2- and 3-band, and OC3) and Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) by 15–65%, while exhibiting comparable performance to a locally trained MDN, with an error of ∼35%. Comparison of Chla retrieval models, AC processors (iCOR, ACOLITE), and radiometric products (Rayleigh-corrected, surface, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance) showed that the best Chla maps and optimal time series (up to 100 mg m−3) were produced using a coupled SVR-iCOR system.

algal blooms↗

Global Model Estimates of Atmospheric Al, Ca, Fe, Si, and Ti from Dust and Non-Dust Aerosols Informed by EMIT Surface Mineralogy and Evaluated Against Observations

Atmospheric deposition of micro-nutrients like Fe has been shown to be important for ocean biogeochemistry. The largest source of atmospheric Fe and other elements (e.g., Ca, Al, Si, and Ti) is desert dust, although there are significant non-dust sources in some regions. However, past estimates of these elements have been substantially uncertain due to limited information about the composition of the desert source regions. Here we use elemental distributions estimated from new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) observations, which provide mineralogical composition at the surface of the Earth based on imaging spectroscopy measurements from the International Space Station. We add in other sources of these elements (anthropogenic and natural) and compare to a compilation of available surface concentration data from stations over land and from shipborne observations. Our results suggest that the modeled distribution is similar to available observations, but discrepancies still exist in both natural desert dust regions as well as regions dominated by anthropogenic sources. Global budgets for the elements Ca, Al, Fe, Si, and Ti suggest that desert dust remains the dominant source for these elements but anthropogenic or volcanic sources are also important for these elements. Changes in elemental distributions since preindustrial times were also estimated.

aerosols↗

Minimizing Cr-Evaporation from Balance of Plant Components by Utilizing Cost-Effective Alumina-Forming Austenitic Steels

A solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is a clean and efficient energy conversion device. The development of intermediate-temperature SOFCs has made it preferable to use metallic interconnects (MICs) to greatly reduce the cost and significantly increase the efficiency compared to ceramic interconnect materials. However, gaseous chromium species will evaporate from the chromium-containing layer formed on the surface of commonly used MICs and balance of plant (BoP) components. Volatile chromium species have been shown to form solid deposits which poison the cathodes of SOFCs, causing drastic cell performance degradation and thereby limiting commercialization. In order to alleviate the Cr poisoning and achieve long-term high performance of SOFC stacks, various Al2O3-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steels applied at different temperatures are evaluated in this project. Based on our Phase I results (500 h operation), it is shown that on the AFAs, an alumina-based protective layer forms under high temperature that is invulnerable to water vapor effects and suppresses the diffusion of chromium and manganese which can prevent the generation of spinels on the alloy surface. Therefore, 310S, OC4 and OC5 at 800 °C and 625, OC11 and OC11LZ at 900 °C are selected to be tested in the Phase II long-term operation. From the results, we find that besides the lower Cr evaporation rates and better oxidation resistance of AFAs than benchmark alloys after short-term (500 h) operation, AFAs also possess the sturdy and compact alumina layer after a long-term operation (5000 h). A protective oxide layer is of great importance for the long-term high-temperature operation of structural materials. The high-temperature oxidation behavior of AFAs and commercial 310S and 625 alloys in Air + 10% H 2 O at 800 °C and 900 °C is systematically investigated. Severe breakaway oxidation and minor spallation are observed for the 310S and 625 after the long-term operation, while the AFAs show high oxidation resistance. It is found that the formation of a continuous alumina layer could greatly prevent the volatilization of chromium vapors. In addition, the corresponding evolving models are discussed. Chromium evaporation from BoP components in high-temperature environment could severely deteriorate the electrochemical performance of SOFC. Several methods were applied to evaluate the Cr evaporation rates of BoP after 500 h exposure at 800 °C to 900 °C in air with 10% H 2 O. An optimal method was designed to exclude the effect of silicon (Si) deposits from quartz tube and sodium (Na) deposits from the sodium carbonate on the oxidation process and the chemical interaction between Cr gaseous species and alumina tube which could provide further quantitative correlation of the evaporated Cr species quantities and degradation rates of SOFC. Based on the great performance of AFAs after long-term operation, AFAs are assembled with Anode-supported cells (ASC) to investigate the the Cr deposition of anode-supported cell under a constant current density of 0.5 A cm -2 at 800 °C with AFA alloys compared with commercial alloys. In addition, the anodic and cathodic processes are deconvoluted by distribution of relaxation times (DRT) method which are comprehensively discussed. It is found out that the voltage exhibited a slight decrease of 5.09 % and 1.54 % in the presence of OC11 and OC11LZA alloy, respectively. However, a considerable decrease of 22.14 % and 12.06 % was determined in the presence of 310S and 625 alloy, respectively. AFAs possessing the low-cost, low Cr evaporation rates and the high oxidation resistance will make it of great potential to replace the existing BoP components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Approaches for Pebble Bed Reactor Operations and Safeguards

The design of pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and their method of operation align more closely with statistical approaches used in manufacturing and process control than traditional safeguards statistical approaches. The reason is PBRs will employ a nondestructive assay (NDA) measurement (burnup measurement system [BUMS]) that is part of the fuel handling system supporting discharge decisions in addition to the reactor code which monitor performance. The integration of these two approaches provides the opportunity to monitor reactor performance statistically for both operations and safeguards in ways not achievable using other reactor designs. For light water reactors (LWRs), knowledge about reactor code performance in predicting irradiated special nuclear material (SNM) content historically was only achieved from special measurement campaigns or from fuel reprocessing. Conversely, through statistical comparison of the BUMS with the reactor code-predicted values, PBRs can achieve this in real time. The resulting SNM distribution is an indicator of reactor performance because factors such as transit time and path of the pebble fuel through the reactor determine the plutonium production and uranium depletion. By analyzing the predicted and measured values, opportunities exist to adjust operating parameters, fuel design, and other characteristics to optimize performance and fuel utilization. From a safeguards perspective, this approach also provides the information necessary to validate declared values and evaluate whether the reactor is being operated as expected. This paper outlines statistical approaches for PBRs that can be used to support both operations and safeguards.

Ball, Cory↗

Search for the NΔ resonance in the 𝛾𝑑 → 𝑑𝜋 +𝜋 − reaction

A dibaryon which is an object with baryon number B = 2 has been studied for a long time. Dyson and Xuong classified non-strangeness dibaryon states based on SU(6) symmetries in 1960?s. In the framework, the deuteron is classified as one of the sextet states of dibaryons. Although dibaryon have been an interesting subject of research for a long time, most of the experimental studies up to the early 2000?s were unsuccessful. The CELCIUS/WASA collaboration reported this state via the double-pionic fusion reaction (?= ! 3c0c0) in 2009. Thereafter, the WASA-at-COSY collaboration revealed properties of the isoscaler resonance state via the ?= ! 3c0c0 reaction in 2011. The dibaryon resonance state with isospin ? = 0 and spin ( = 3 thought to be a ?03 which was predicted by Dyson and Xuong at 2.35 GeV?22 with a configuration of ??. The reported mass and width of that state were 2?37 GeV?22 and 0?07 GeV?22, espectively. The mass was ?0?08 GeV?22 smaller than that of 2?, the width was narrower than that of single ?. This surprising result made dibaryon study come back into the limelight. ?12 is one of the dibaryon states classified by Dyson and Xuong with isospin ? = 1, spin ( = 2. This state can be regarded as an s-wave #? resonance. ?12 is an interesting state from the point of view of the possibilities of existence as an internal structure of ?03 and contribution to many-body effects in nuclei. Though there were some experimental clues and theoretical studies of this state, it was unclear whether the obtained experimental results represented a real resonance or not due to the difficulty of separation from kinematical effects. Very recently, the FOREST group at Tohoku University reported a photoproduced isovector dibaryon state at mass of 2.14 GeV?22 in the 3c0 invariant mass spectra of the W3 ! 3c0c0 reaction. The most probable ?% configuration was 2¸ although they didn?t exclude the possibility of ?% = 1¸ or 3?. They separated the dibaryon production process from conventional pion production process for the first time using angular distribution of deuteron. We investigated the W3 ! 3c¸c? reaction for study of a possible #? dibaryon state using a deuterium target at the Research Center for Electron Photon Science, Tohoku University, Japan. In the experiment, ?3 ? 1012 tagged photon beam at energies ranging from 0.8 to 1.1 GeV was impinged to the liquid deuterium target (?520 mg?cm2) and the charged particles in the final state: deuteron, c¸, and c?, were detected by a magnetic spectrometer with a large solid angle named NKS2. NKS2 had capabilities of reconstructing momentum of charged particles, multi-track analysis, and ??c separation. We performed two different analyses named 2-track analysis and 3-track analysis. The 2-track (3-track) analysis was for events in which two (three) particles of 3c¸c? in the final state, including deuteron, were detected by NKS2. In the 3-track and 2-track analysis, ?2000? ?15000 events were identified as the W3 ! 3c¸c? reaction events, respectively. The 2-track analysis with higher statistics was mainly used to derive the cross sections, and the 3-track analysis was used to check the consistency of the 2-track analysis. In this thesis, we have shown the total cross section, the differential cross sections of the W3 ! 3c¸c? reaction in the region of jC j ¡ 0?15 GeV2. This is the world?s first measurement of this reaction in this energy region. Dibaryon resonance structures were observed below the #? threshold in the differential cross section of the invariant mass of 3c?. The mass and width of the structure were consistent with these of ?12 measured by the W3 ! 3c0c0 reaction. The mechanism of the production process was discussed based on the angular distribution of emitted deuteron.

Toyama, Yuichi↗

OCTOKV: An Agile Network-Based Key-Value Storage System with Robust Load Orchestration

In this paper, we propose OctoKV, an innovative network-based key-value storage system. OctoKV addresses the repetitive address translation overhead associated with traditional key-value stores running on file systems on the client side. To mitigate this overhead, we implemented the key-value store on the server side using NVMe-oF and a user-level NVMe driver. In particular, we employed fine-grained resource monitoring and load balancing based on heuristics to optimize I/O performance. OctoKV is deployed on a Linux cluster with Intel SPDK. The extensive evaluation shows that OctoKV achieves lower I/O response times in comparison to traditional approaches where key-value stores run on the client side. Also, the proposed load balancing strategies efficiently enhance I/O response times by equally distributing the workload from overloaded cores to other cores.

Khan, Awais↗

Embedding Fiber Optic Sensors in Stainless Steel using Spark Plasma Sintering for Structural Health Monitoring in Harsh Environments

Embedded fiber optic sensors such as fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) offer a unique route for distributed real-time in-situ imaging of various engineering parameters for numerous purposes. This study advanced the current sensor embedding approaches by exploring a spark plasma sintering (SPS)-assisted technology to embed FBGs in high-temperature structural materials and demonstrated the capability of temperature measurement. In this approach, single-mode FBGs were integrated into stainless steel (SS) 316L components using SPS, followed by the evaluation of the bonding quality between the FBGs and matrix, the optical attenuation of the fibers induced by embedding, and the sensing characters of the FBGs under temperature stimuli. The results demonstrated that superior bonding was achieved between the FBGs and highly-densified SS316L. Examination of the behavior of Bragg gratings validated signal fidelity after embedding. Real-time thermal imaging under temperature cycling using the FBGs demonstrated the effectiveness of the technique for smart materials manufacturing.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Risk Informed Timelines (RIT) v.1.0

Risk Informed Timelines (RIT) is a more modern and holistic method for understanding how access delay timelines are developed and utilized in physical security system evaluations. The software utilizes Bayesian methods to combine subject matter expert judgement and small performance test datasets in a consistent and defensible way. It allows a more holistic view of delay performance that provides distributions of task times and task success probabilities to account for tasks that, if failed, would result in failure of the attack. The RIT methodology is meant to enable security risk managers to begin the transition into more comprehensive delay timeline analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-8294 O

Noel, ToddG.↗

SuperLab 2.0 Showcase: Connecting Five Labs to Tackle Grid Complexity and Unlock Unique Grid Asset Potential

SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) is a collaborative, national-scale experiment showcasing the coordination of geographically distributed energy assets in real time. The demonstration integrates 25 physical and digital assets, spanning wind, PV, batteries, electrolyzers, DC fast chargers, microgrid controllers, building automation systems, small modular reactor (SMR), control centers, and gas turbines, across five DOE national laboratories-NLR, INL, NETL, LBNL, and SNL. These assets are unified using Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a low-latency, high-performance U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) network, and controlled via a centralized energy controller hosted at NLR's ARIES facility. The demonstration validates the ability to stress-test hybrid energy systems under dynamic scenarios to de-risk advanced control strategies for greater resilience and flexibility. SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) showcased a major advancement in federated national laboratory collaboration, enabling real-time, cross-laboratory experimentation to coordinate geographically dispersed distributed energy resources (DERs) using various communication protocols and networks. SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) built on previous demonstrations conducted between NLR-PNNL and NLR-INL connecting diverse assets including distant protection devices, a SMR simulator, and a high temperature electrolyzer (HTE). Previous demos were based on a single connection between two labs with minimal coordination challenges. The 5-Lab demo with a centralized controller, distributed testbeds across different geographical locations, and use of protocols-based communication represents a scenario closer to real-world grid operations that coordinate resources across a region to meet system needs. This experiment studied how local DER controllers interact with a centralized energy controller during normal and abnormal events to maintain reliability. The SuperLab team across the five labs implemented a notional power system model equivalent of transmission and distribution lines, represented by the data networks interconnecting the labs. Each lab continuously exchanged local parameters (such as P and Q) from its Hardware-In-Loop (CHIL) and Power Hardware-In-Loop (PHIL) assets through centralized energy controller at NLR, enabling real-time interaction and coordination across sites. By leveraging ESnet as the communication backbone, the team successfully operated the distributed assets as a unified power system, with each bus represented by a different laboratory. This setup mirrors how assets interact in real-world power systems across dispersed locations with various protocols and latencies. At each lab site, assets were operated using their own local controllers which were coordinated through an overarching operation and control layer of centralized energy controller, equivalent to how an energy management system (EMS) orchestrates assets across a regional or national grid. SuperLab's federated connectivity utilized a Digital Real-Time Simulators (DRTS)-type gateway to connect Controller Hardware-In-Loop (CHIL) and PHIL assets between labs. To enable this federated connection through ESnet, a deterministic network was established where latency variations were consistent. This consistency allowed the development of digital filters for the power system assets across CHIL and PHIL interfaces to avoid unstable and unreliable grid conditions. This report provides an overview of the cross-laboratory configuration and offers insights into interconnecting geographically distributed research assets to test them as if they were co-located. This experiment represents a step toward linking nine DOE national laboratories, enabling nation-wide simulations that can address utility-driven challenges with grid resilience, flexibility, and modernization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Supporting Cyber Security of Power Distribution Systems by Detecting Differences Between Real-time Micro-Synchrophasor Measurements and Cyber-Reported SCADA (Final Report)

As modern power grids tend towards greater levels of automation and communication, the challenges of identifying and mitigating vulnerabilities to cyber-attacks are ones that are increasingly demanding attention. Today’s power system has evolved to form the foundational bedrock of modern society, and an attack on this infrastructure could prove disastrous. In this project we were tasked to investigate the use of distribution synchrophasors as an independent isolated sensor network with which we can corroborate, or flag potentially spoofed,Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. We adapted an approach to marry the underlying physical properties of power systems with the network communications used by power systems in order to offer insights unattainable by either data stream isolation. While the concept of intrusion detection systems (IDS) is well understood for monitoring network traffic and traditional IT computing systems, the approach discussed in this report is motivated by several key notions: first, current SCADA communications alone presents an incomplete view of the grid. Second, the power grid, and the equipment controlling it, is grounded by laws of physics. Given this, we leverage high-frequency physical grid measurements to understand the physical condition of the grid, and combine this with SCADA. While high-frequency physical grid measurements and SCADA communication over Internet Protocol (IP) networks are fundamentally disparate information sources, when collectively examined through appropriate lenses, they offer a much more nuanced depiction of the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An implicit solution for Asay foil trajectories generated by separable, sustained-production ejecta source models

We present a simple implicit solution for the time-dependent trajectory of a thin Asay foil ejecta diagnostic for the general case where the impinging ejecta cloud is generated by a source function characterized by an arbitrary (sustained) time dependence and a time-independent (stationary) particle velocity distribution. In the limit that the source function time dependence becomes a delta function, this solution—which is amenable to rapid numerical calculations of arbitrary accuracy—exactly recovers a previously published solution for the special case of instantaneous ejecta production. We also derive simple expressions for the free-surface arrival (catch-up) time as well as the true ejecta areal mass accumulation on the accelerating foil and place bounds on the level of error incurred when applying instant-production mass solutions to a sustained-production trajectory. We demonstrate these solutions with example calculations for hypothetical source functions spanning a wide range of ejecta production durations, velocity distributions, and temporal behaviors. These calculations demonstrate how the foil trajectory is often insensitive to the temporal dependence of the source function, instead being dominated by the velocity distribution. We quantify this insensitivity using a “compatibility score” metric. Under certain conditions, one may capitalize upon this insensitivity to obtain a good approximation of the second integral of the velocity distribution from the observed foil trajectory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Wave-particle interactions in the Venus wake and tail

The first descriptions of combined tail measurements from the Pioneer Venus plasma analyzer, magnetometer, and plasma wave detector are presented. The analysis concentrates on those orbits which are representative of the first tail passage. Summary plasma analyzer parameters are used to show that waves occurring at the boundary of the magnetotail can be identified as Doppler-shifted ion acoustic oscillations. High-density plasma distributions in the magnetotail region usually appear to be non-Maxwellian at the highest time resolution. These distorted distribution functions are generally accompanied by enhanced plasma wave signals and magnetic field reversals indicative of electric currents. A different time for the spacecraft entrance into the magnetotail from that previously defined is identified. It is shown that the wave activity in the Venus tail appears similar to the broadband noise identified in the earth's tail, except that at Venus the levels are usually higher.

Intriligator, D. S.↗