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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,225 records · Page 68
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Using PCA and PLS on publicly available data to predict the extractability of hydrocarbons from shales

Prediction of hydrocarbon extraction from shale requires specialized knowledge of shale play characteristics and analysis to assess effective, economical, and sustainable implementation of oil and natural gas production. In this paper, we present a statistical approach that can be used as a preliminary investigation into the hydrocarbon resource potential of a shale play based on limited data. Statistical algorithms for Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) were used to determine if depositional environments and lithographic boundary characteristics of different plays allowed prediction of specific production parameters. This project characterizes Eagle Ford and Utica formations—two high-producing shale plays in the United States—and Banff/Exshaw and Colorado formations—two recently assessed shale plays in Alberta, Canada. Partial Least Squares Regression models were unable to model gas production parameters from predictor variables, highlighting the complexity of gas formations and the need for data on microscale petrophysical characteristics. In contrast, oil production parameters were better predicted, because bulk variables such as mineral composition appeared to correlate with oil location in mineral interfaces. As expected, a PLS model's predictive capabilities increased with specificity of data sets to particular regions of a shale play. Finally, this study indicates how PCA and PLS modeling could assist stakeholders to make preliminary decisions regarding hydrocarbon extraction, especially when limited to publicly available petrophysical data.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling plasticity-mediated void growth at the single crystal scale: A physics-informed machine learning approach

Modeling the evolution of voids during plastic flow as well as their effects on plastic dissipation is critical for both component manufacturing and lifetime estimation purposes. To this end, we propose a rate-dependent constitutive model to homogenize the effects of semi-randomly distributed voids on single crystal plasticity whilst capturing void interaction and plastic anisotropy. Here, this present work focuses on the case of face centered cubic crystals to introduce an anisotropic gauge function applicable within the crystal plasticity formalism. The approach combines analytical methods to describe the micromechanics of the system in combination with symbolic regression to capture analytically intractable mechanisms from data. The hybrid framework uses a physics-informed genetic programming-based symbolic regression algorithm to solve a multiform optimization problem simultaneously producing a new gauge function and a new strain rate equation. This is also a multi-objective optimization problem with many competing objectives. A new search and selection step is introduced to the genetic algorithm that promotes convergence toward a global solution that better satisfies all the objectives. Overall, the symbolic equations produced leverage data-driven methods to achieve greater accuracy than comparable alternatives on an analytically intractable problem while maintaining model transparency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Deep inspiration breath-hold technique for left-sided breast cancer: An analysis of predictors for organ-at-risk sparing

To identify anatomic and treatment characteristics that correlate with organ-at-risk (OAR) sparing with deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) technique to guide patient selection for this technique. Anatomic and treatment characteristics and radiation doses to OARs were compared between free-breathing and DIBH plans. Linear regression analysis was used to identify factors independently predicting for cardiac sparing. We identified 64 patients: 44 with intact breast and 20 postmastectomy. For changes measured directly on treatment planning scans, DIBH plans decreased heart-chest wall length (6.5 vs 5.0 cm, p < 0.001), and increased lung volume (1074.4 vs 1881.3 cm{sup 3}, p < 0.001), and for changes measured after fields are set, they decreased maximum heart depth (1.1 vs 0.3 cm, p < 0.001) and heart volume in field (HVIF) (9.1 vs 0.9 cm{sup 3}, p < 0.001). DIBH reduced the mean heart dose (3.4 vs 1.8 Gy, p < 0.001) and lung V{sub 20} (19.6% vs 15.3%, p < 0.001). Regression analysis found that only change in HVIF independently predicted for cardiac sparing. We identified patients in the bottom quartile of the dosimetric benefits seen with DIBH and categorized the cause of this “minimal benefit.” Overall, 29% of patients satisfied these criteria for minimal benefit with DIBH and the most common cause was favorable baseline anatomy. Only the reduction in HVIF predicted for reductions in mean heart dose; no specific anatomic surrogate for the dosimetric benefits of DIBH technique could be identified. Most patients have significant dosimetric benefit with DIBH, and this technique should be planned and evaluated for all patients receiving left-sided breast/chest wall radiation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A generalized machine learning workflow to visualize mechanical discontinuity

Accurate detection and mapping of mechanical discontinuity in materials has widespread industrial and research applications. Herein, we developed a generalized machine-learning framework for visualizing single mechanical discontinuity embedded in material of any composition, velocity, density, porosity, and size with limited data. The proposed visualization of discontinuity requires accurate estimations of the length, location, and orientation of the embedded discontinuity by processing multipoint wave-transmission measurements. k-Wave simulator is used to create a large dataset of elastic waveforms recorded during multi-point wave-transmission measurements through materials containing single mechanical discontinuity. k-Wave simulator considers the wave attenuation, dispersion, and mode conversion in wave motion. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and statistical feature extraction are essential for data preprocessing prior to the data-driven model development. DWT also minimizes the effect of noise. Using hyper-parameter tuning and cross validation, gradient boosting regression can visualize the mechanical discontinuity with an accuracy of 0.85, in terms of coefficient of determination. A double-layered neural network-based regression has better performance with an accuracy of 0.95. Use of convolutional neural network converts the predictive task from a waveform processing to an image processing problem. Convolutional neural network achieved a generalization performance of 0.91. The proposed generalized workflow requires robust simulation of wave propagation, signal processing, feature engineering, and model evaluation. Sensors closest to the source and those located opposite the source are the most significant for the desired visualization. Notably, the sensors closest to the source capture the non-linear associations, whereas the sensor on the border opposite to the source capture the linear associations between the measured waveforms and the properties of the mechanical discontinuity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Different behavioral effect dose–response profiles in mice exposed to two-carbon chlorinated hydrocarbons: Influence of structural and physical properties

The present study aimed to clarify whether dose–response profiles of acute behavioral effects of 1,2-dichloroethane (DCE), 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCE), trichloroethylene (TRIC), and tetrachloroethylene (PERC) differ. A test battery involving 6 behavioral endpoints was applied to evaluate the effects of DCE, TCE, TRIC, and PERC in male ICR strain mice under the same experimental conditions. The behavioral effect dose–response profiles of these compounds differed. Regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the dose–response profiles and structural and physical properties of the compounds. Dose–response profile differences correlated significantly with differences in specific structural and physical properties. These results suggest that differences in specific structural and physical properties of DCE, TCE, TRIC, and PERC are responsible for differences in behavioral effects that lead to a variety of dose–response profiles. - Highlights: • We examine effects of 4 chlorinated hydrocarbons on 6 behavioral endpoints in mice. • The behavioral effect dose–response profiles for the 4 compounds are different. • We utilize regression analysis to clarify probable causes of the different profiles. • The compound's physicochemical properties probably produce the different profiles.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Performance evaluation of a hybrid-passive landfill leachate treatment system using multivariate statistical techniques

Highlights: • Performance of a hybrid passive landfill leachate treatment system was evaluated. • 33 Water chemistry parameters were sampled for 21 months and statistically analyzed. • Parameters were strongly linked and explained most (>40%) of the variation in data. • Alkalinity, ammonia, COD, heavy metals, and iron were criteria for performance. • Eight other parameters were key in modeling system dynamics and criteria. - Abstract: A pilot-scale hybrid-passive treatment system operated at the Merrick Landfill in North Bay, Ontario, Canada, treats municipal landfill leachate and provides for subsequent natural attenuation. Collected leachate is directed to a hybrid-passive treatment system, followed by controlled release to a natural attenuation zone before entering the nearby Little Sturgeon River. The study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of the system using multivariate statistical techniques to determine the interactions between parameters, major pollutants in the leachate, and the biological and chemical processes occurring in the system. Five parameters (ammonia, alkalinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), “heavy” metals of interest, with atomic weights above calcium, and iron) were set as criteria for the evaluation of system performance based on their toxicity to aquatic ecosystems and importance in treatment with respect to discharge regulations. System data for a full range of water quality parameters over a 21-month period were analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA), as well as principal components (PC) and partial least squares (PLS) regressions. PCA indicated a high degree of association for most parameters with the first PC, which explained a high percentage (>40%) of the variation in the data, suggesting strong statistical relationships among most of the parameters in the system. Regression analyses identified 8 parameters (set as independent variables) that were most frequently retained for modeling the five criteria parameters (set as dependent variables), on a statistically significant level: conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrite (NO{sub 2}{sup −}), organic nitrogen (N), oxidation reduction potential (ORP), pH, sulfate and total volatile solids (TVS). The criteria parameters and the significant explanatory parameters were most important in modeling the dynamics of the passive treatment system during the study period. Such techniques and procedures were found to be highly valuable and could be applied to other sites to determine parameters of interest in similar naturalized engineered systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Heterogeneity in Warm‐Season Land‐Atmosphere Coupling Over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Heterogeneity in warm‐season (May–August) land‐atmosphere (LA) coupling is quantified with the long‐time, multiple‐station measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite remote sensing at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). We examine the coupling strength at seven additional locations with the same surface type (i.e., pasture/grassland) as the ARM SGP central facility (CF). To simultaneously consider multiple factors and consistently quantify their relative contributions, we apply a multiple linear regression method to correlate the surface evaporative fraction (EF) with near‐surface soil moisture (SM) and leaf area index (LAI). The observations show moderate to weak terrestrial segment LA coupling with large heterogeneity across the ARM SGP domain in warm season. Large spatial variabilities in the contributions from SM and LAI to the EF changes are also found. The coupling heterogeneities appear to be associated with differences in land use, anthropogenic activities, rooting depth, and soil type at different stations. Therefore, the complex LA interactions at the SGP cannot be well represented by those at the CF/E13 based on the metrics applied here. Overall, the LAI exerts more influence on the EF than does the SM due to its overwhelming impacts on the latent heat flux. This study complements previous studies based on measurements only from the CF and has important implications for modeling LA coupling in weather and climate models. The multiple linear regression provides a more comprehensive measure of the integrated impacts on LA coupling from several different factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols

We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Delegated Regressor, A Robust Approach for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Soil Radon Time Series Data

We propose a new method based on the idea of delegating regressors for predicting the soil radon gas concentration (SRGC) and anomalies in radon or any other time series data. The proposed method is compared to different traditional boosting e.g., Extreme Gradient Boosting (EGB) and simple regression methods e.g., support vector regressors with linear kernel and radial kernel in terms of accurate predictions. R language has been used for the statistical analysis of radon time series (RTS) data. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology predicts SRGC more accurately when compared to different traditional boosting and regression methods. The best correlation is found between the actual and predicted radon concentration for window size of 2 i.e., two days before and after the start of seismic activities. RTS data was collected from 05 February 2017 to 16 February 2018, including 7 seismic events recorded during the study period. Findings of study show that the proposed methodology predicts the SRGC with more precision, for all the window sizes, by overlapping predicted with the actual radon time series concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Damages to Remainder Parcels in Right-of-Way Acquisitions for Expanding Transportation Infrastructure: Using a Truncated Finite-Mixture Model

Right-of-way acquisition is a critical component of transportation infrastructure development. Transportation infrastructure projects cannot proceed without proper right-of-way acquisition or may face significant delays. State Departments of Transportation frequently acquire parcels of land for roadway expansion projects. A majority of these acquisitions can be partial takings, referring to a portion of a parcel that is acquired. The remainder of the property usually suffers economic changes due to the partial acquisition, which can be calculated as damage percentages. The damage percentage represents the extent to which the remaining land or property value has been diminished due to the acquisition. It reflects the remaining property value percentage that may have been lost or compromised due to the acquisition. Here, this study aims to provide a robust model to estimate damage percentages to the remainder parcels that may help state Departments of Transportation appraisers make early predictions about the damages in cases involving partial takings. The research uses 509 appraisal reports from the Tennessee Department of Transportation to identify the key parcel attributes that influence the percentage of damages. Three regression models are developed: a linear regression model, a finite-mixture model (FMM), and a truncated FMM with two latent classes. The modeling results show that the truncated FMM with two classes outperforms the other models. To validate the models, actual sales data is collected and analyzed for 59 properties, and the results suggest that the model predictions are fairly accurate. A predictive tool is developed based on the models to help appraisers anticipate right-of-way damages under different scenarios and can provide early predictions about the damages.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Linking strain anisotropy and plasticity in copper metallization

The elastic anisotropy of copper leads to significant variation in the x-ray elastic constants (XEC), which link diffraction-based strain measurements to stress. An accurate depiction of the mechanical response in copper thin films requires a determination of an appropriate grain interaction model that lies between Voigt and Reuss limits. It is shown that the associated XEC weighting fraction, x*, between these limits provides a metric by which strain anisotropy can be quantified. Experimental values of x*, as determined by a linear regression scheme of diffraction data collected from multiple reflections, reveal the degree of strain anisotropy and its dependence on plastic deformation induced during in-situ and ex-situ thermal treatments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2016

Optimized mirror shape tuning using beam weightings based on distance, angle of incidence, reflectivity, and power

For glancing-incidence optical systems, such as short-wavelength optics used for nano-focusing, incorporating physical factors in the calculations used for shape optimization can improve performance. Wavefront metrology, including the measurement of a mirror's shape or slope, is routinely used as input for mirror figure optimization on mirrors that can be bent, actuated, positioned, or aligned. Modeling shows that when the incident power distribution, distance from focus, angle of incidence, and the spatially varying reflectivity are included in the optimization, higher Strehl ratios can be achieved. Following the works of Maréchal and Mahajan, optimization of the Strehl ratio (for peak intensity with a coherently illuminated system) occurs when the expectation value of the phase error's variance is minimized. We describe an optimization procedure based on regression analysis that incorporates these physical parameters. This approach is suitable for coherently illuminated systems of nearly diffraction-limited quality. Mathematically, this work is an enhancement of the methods commonly applied for ex situ alignment based on uniform weighting of all points on the surface (or a sub-region of the surface). It follows a similar approach to the optimization of apodized and non-uniformly illuminated optical systems. Significantly, it reaches a different conclusion than a more recent approach based on minimization of focal plane ray errors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improving underwater localization accuracy with machine learning

Machine learning classification and regression algorithms were applied to calibrate the localization errors of a time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA)-based acoustic sensor array used for tracking salmon passage through a hydroelectric dam on the Snake River, Washington, USA. The locations of stationary and mobile acoustic tags were first tracked using the approximate maximum likelihood algorithm. Next, ensembles of classification trees successfully identified and filtered data points with large localization errors. This prefiltering step allowed the creation of a machine-learned regression model function, which decreased the median distance error by 50% for the stationary tracks and by 34% for the mobile tracks. It also extended the previous range of sub-meter localization accuracy from 100 m to 250 m horizontal distance from the dam face (the receivers). Median distance errors in the depth direction were especially decreased, falling from 0.49 m to 0.04 m in the stationary tracks and from 0.38 m to 0.07 m in the mobile tracks. These methods would have application to the calibration of error in any TDOA-based sensor network with a steady environment and array configuration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning prediction of self-diffusion in Lennard-Jones fluids

In this work, different machine learning (ML) methods were explored for the prediction of self-diffusion in Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluids. Using a database of diffusion constants obtained from the molecular dynamics simulation literature, multiple Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Net (ANN) regression models were developed and characterized. The role and improved performance of feature engineering coupled to the RF model development was also addressed. The performance of these different ML models was evaluated by comparing the prediction error to an existing empirical relationship used to describe LJ fluid diffusion. It was found that the ANN regression models provided superior prediction of diffusion in comparison to the existing empirical relationships.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning approaches for structural and thermodynamic properties of a Lennard-Jones fluid

Predicting the functional properties of many molecular systems relies on understanding how atomistic interactions give rise to macroscale observables. However, current attempts to develop predictive models for the structural and thermodynamic properties of condensed-phase systems often rely on extensive parameter fitting to empirically selected functional forms whose effectiveness is limited to a narrow range of physical conditions. Here, we illustrate how these traditional fitting paradigms can be superseded using machine learning. Specifically, we use the results of molecular dynamics simulations to train machine learning protocols that are able to produce the radial distribution function, pressure, and internal energy of a Lennard-Jones fluid with increased accuracy in comparison to previous theoretical methods. The radial distribution function is determined using a variant of the segmented linear regression with the multivariate function decomposition approach developed by Craven et al. [J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 11, 4372 (2020)]. The pressure and internal energy are determined using expressions containing the learned radial distribution function and also a kernel ridge regression process that is trained directly on thermodynamic properties measured in simulation. The presented results suggest that the structural and thermodynamic properties of fluids may be determined more accurately through machine learning than through human-guided functional forms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analytical gradients for molecular-orbital-based machine learning

We report molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) enables the prediction of accurate correlation energies at the cost of obtaining molecular orbitals. Here, we present the derivation, implementation, and numerical demonstration of MOB-ML analytical nuclear gradients, which are formulated in a general Lagrangian framework to enforce orthogonality, localization, and Brillouin constraints on the molecular orbitals. The MOB-ML gradient framework is general with respect to the regression technique (e.g., Gaussian process regression or neural networks) and the MOB feature design. We show that MOB-ML gradients are highly accurate compared to other ML methods on the ISO17 dataset while only being trained on energies for hundreds of molecules compared to energies and gradients for hundreds of thousands of molecules for the other ML methods. The MOB-ML gradients are also shown to yield accurate optimized structures at a computational cost for the gradient evaluation that is comparable to a density-corrected density functional theory calculation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗