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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1968

Survey of the Relationship Between Theory and Experiment for Convective Heat Transfer From Rocket Combustion Gases

The problem of predicting the distribution of heat flux in a rocket engine is complicated by a flow field and thermodynamics so perturbed by as yet indescribable combustion effects that it continues to be necessary to utilize a simplified theoretical model against which to compare experimental results in order to gain insight. The most successful model applied to this problem is that of a compressible, turbulent, accelerating boundary layer flow with an arbitrary point of origin, and chemical reaction restricted to equilibrium recombination or diffusion-limited recombination on a catalytic wall. Analysis of this model was not possible without making several assumptions about the nature of the skin friction coefficient relationship and Reynold's analogy in an accelerating boundary layer flow. The paper summarizes the analysis of this model (together with detailed treatment of the special problems of variable properties, chemical reaction, and sources of transport properties), and describes several closed-form equations that have also been developed and applied to the problem. Described are results of several experiments with hot air flow made for the purpose of checking the validity of the assumptions in the boundary layer analysis. Most significant, however, are presentations of sample distributions of local heat flux measured in rocket engines operating with a wide range of conditions, propellants, injectors and sizes. When compared with predictions, these data show the significant range of deviation in heat flux that results from the combustion effects and which precludes a generally accurate prediction theory or correlation equation until the combustion process itself is correlated.

D R Bartz↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of predicted and actual orbital lifetimes for the SEDS-2 mission

This paper documents a series of estimates of the orbital lifetime of the SEDS-2 flight configuration made prior to the mission. These estimates were made with program LTIME, which has been in use at MSFC for a number of years. Because of the unusual configuration of upper-stage/tether/endmass flown on this mission, and the type of assumptions and inputs used in LTIME, the effective area used in the drag calculation had to be estimated in an unusual way. The final pre-flight predicted lifetime was 28.35 days. In the actual flight, the tether was cut approximately 5 days into the mission. The instrumented endmass plus about 12 km of tether rapidly reentered the atmosphere, and the Delta II Second Stage plus the remaining 8 km of tether reentered on mission day 60. Tracking data was used to reconstruct reentry sequences for the two parts of the configuration after the cut. The predicted lifetimes for the endmass plus tether-fragment were in the range of 0.2 to 2.8 days, depending on the perigee altitudes assumed. The predicted lifetime of the upper-stage plus tether was 56.4 days, which corresponds to reentry on mission day 61, in good agreement with the actual reentry on day 60.

Evans, Steven W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutral gas pressure dependence of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations

In this computational study, we describe a self-consistent trajectory simulation approach to capture the effect of neutral gas pressure on ion–ion mutual neutralization (MN) reactions. The electron transfer probability estimated using Landau–Zener (LZ) transition state theory is incorporated into classical trajectory simulations to elicit predictions of MN cross sections in vacuum and rate constants at finite neutral gas pressures. Electronic structure calculations with multireference configuration interaction and large correlation consistent basis sets are used to derive inputs to the LZ theory. The key advance of our trajectory simulation approach is the inclusion of the effect of ion-neutral interactions on MN using a Langevin representation of the effect of background gas on ion transport. For H + – H – and Li + – H(D) – , our approach quantitatively agrees with measured speed-dependent cross sections for up to ~10 5 m/s. For the ion pair Ne + – Cl – , our predictions of the MN rate constant at ~1 Torr are a factor of ~2 to 3 higher than the experimentally measured value. Similarly, for Xe + – F – in the pressure range of ~20 000–80 000 Pa, our predictions of the MN rate constant are ~20% lower but are in excellent qualitative agreement with experimental data. Here, the paradigm of using trajectory simulations to self-consistently capture the effect of gas pressure on MN reactions advanced here provides avenues for the inclusion of additional nonclassical effects in future work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2009

Simulation of an Isolated Tiltrotor in Hover with an Unstructured Overset-Grid RANS Solver

An unstructured overset-grid Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver, FUN3D, is used to simulate an isolated tiltrotor in hover. An overview of the computational method is presented as well as the details of the overset-grid systems. Steady-state computations within a noninertial reference frame define the performance trends of the rotor across a range of the experimental collective settings. Results are presented to show the effects of off-body grid refinement and blade grid refinement. The computed performance and blade loading trends show good agreement with experimental results and previously published structured overset-grid computations. Off-body flow features indicate a significant improvement in the resolution of the first perpendicular blade vortex interaction with background grid refinement across the collective range. Considering experimental data uncertainty and effects of transition, the prediction of figure of merit on the baseline and refined grid is reasonable at the higher collective range- within 3 percent of the measured values. At the lower collective settings, the computed figure of merit is approximately 6 percent lower than the experimental data. A comparison of steady and unsteady results show that with temporal refinement, the dynamic results closely match the steady-state noninertial results which gives confidence in the accuracy of the dynamic overset-grid approach.

Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Determining economic benefits of satellite data in short-range forecasting

The chances of enhanced short term weather predictions and economic benefits from the use of GOES satellite data were examined. Results for a meteorological consulting firm before and after the introduction of GOES data were chosen as the method, and monetary benefits were selected as the measure. Services were provided for use by road and street departments, commodities dealers, and marine clients of the consulting firm. The Man-computer Interactive Data Access Program (McIDAS) was employed to furnish 1/2 hour visual or IR imagery for remote access. The commodities clients reconnected the GOES real-time imagery once the study was completed, while the consulting firm, which was personnel and not equipment intensive, did not. Further development of the flexibility of access to the GOES data and improvements in the projected grids are indicated.

Suchman, D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The 1973-1984 Solar Modulation of Cosmic Ray Nuclei

As a continuation of the program of solar modulation studies, new measurements were carried out with the cosmic ray telescope on the Earth satellite IMP-8, of the intensity time variations and the energy spectra of galactic cosmic ray protons, helium, carbon and oxygen from 1980 through 1984 including the recent solar maximum. In order to test the applicability of a steady state model of solar modulation during a period which includes times of rapidly changing modulation, these fluxes were equated with the predictions of a conventional model of solar modulation which assumes equilibrium between modulation mechanisms. It is found that for a reasonable range of variations of the diffusion coefficient the model predictions can be made to agree with the measurements at essentially all times during the studied period. The model can account also for the observed hysteresis effects between cosmic rays of different rigidities.

Garcia-Munoz, M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Application of lagged averaged forecasting to medium range forecasting

The lagged average forecast (LAF) method for predicting and compensating for forecast error growth is applied to two 100 day samples of 10 day forecasts at the 500 mb altitude for winter-summer 1980-81. The LAF parameterizes the forecast error growth in order to weight the forecast with regression calculations. A 5 day LAF forecast was generated for a 10 day forecast made with a 1681 d.o.f. model which produced predictions using a truncated spherical harmonic expansion. A 100 day data set was employed, with the first 90 days serving for LAF forecasts for the model forecast. Significant improvements were obtained in the model forecast when the LAF weightings were introduced into the model variables.

Dalcher, A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development and Use of Engineering Standards for Computational Fluid Dynamics for Complex Aerospace Systems

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are increasingly relied on for predictive performance, reliability and safety of engineering systems. Analysts, designers, decision makers, and project managers, who must depend on simulation, need practical techniques and methods for assessing simulation credibility. The AIAA Guide for Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations (AIAA G-077-1998 (2002)), originally published in 1998, was the first engineering standards document available to the engineering community for verification and validation (V&V) of simulations. Much progress has been made in these areas since 1998. The AIAA Committee on Standards for CFD is currently updating this Guide to incorporate in it the important developments that have taken place in V&V concepts, methods, and practices, particularly with regard to the broader context of predictive capability and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods and approaches. This paper will provide an overview of the changes and extensions currently underway to update the AIAA Guide. Specifically, a framework for predictive capability will be described for incorporating a wide range of error and uncertainty sources identified during the modeling, verification, and validation processes, with the goal of estimating the total prediction uncertainty of the simulation. The Guide's goal is to provide a foundation for understanding and addressing major issues and concepts in predictive CFD. However, this Guide will not recommend specific approaches in these areas as the field is rapidly evolving. It is hoped that the guidelines provided in this paper, and explained in more detail in the Guide, will aid in the research, development, and use of CFD in engineering decision-making.

Lee, Hyung B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictions of the Azimuthal Variation of the Noise from Chevron Jets using an Acoustic Analogy

An existing acoustic analogy formulation is used to make predictions of the turbulent mixing noise from a series of chevron jets tested at NASA Glenn Research Center. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions are used as input to provide the mean flow and turbulence quantities needed to compute the Green’s function and parameterize the source model. The Green’s function for the non-axisymmetric mean flows generated by these nozzles is computed using a second-order finite volume method. A slightly modified version of an existing source model originally developed for round jets is used to assess its capability in these non-axisymmetric flows. Prediction results are compared with experimental data for a range of azimuthal orders of the nozzle geometry and flow speeds. The results show that the RANS-based acoustic analogy prediction method is able to capture the observed azimuthal variation of the sound field fairly well at relatively low jet exit velocities. At higher speeds, the prediction method still captures the observed trends in azimuthal directivity but not the absolute levels, particularly at higher frequencies. Areas for potential improvement of the method are suggested.

Jet Noise↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictions of the Azimuthal Variation of the Noise from Chevron Jets using an Acoustic Analogy

An existing acoustic analogy formulation is used to make predictions of the turbulent mixing noise from a series of chevron jets tested at NASA Glenn Research Center. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions are used as input to provide the mean flow and turbulence quantities needed to compute the Green’s function and parameterize the source model. The Green’s function for the non-axisymmetric mean flows generated by these nozzles is computed using a second-order finite volume method. A slightly modified version of an existing source model originally developed for round jets is used to assess its capability in these non-axisymmetric flows. Prediction results are compared with experimental data for a range of azimuthal orders of the nozzle geometry and flow speeds. The results show that the RANS-based acoustic analogy prediction method is able to capture the observed azimuthal variation of the sound field fairly well at relatively low jet exit velocities. At higher speeds, the prediction method still captures the observed trends in azimuthal directivity but not the absolute levels, particularly at higher frequencies. Areas for potential improvement of the method are suggested.

Jet Noise↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Nitrogen-Rich Energetic Material with So Many Tautomers

A new nitrogen-rich triazolo-triazole compound, (3-(6-methyl-1H-[1,2,4]triazolo[4,3-b][1,2,4]triazol-3-yl)-1H-1,2,4-triazol-5-amine), TTT1, has been prepared, and its acid–base and tautomeric behavior has been investigated. In the pH range of 0.3–12, TTT1 can accept up to two protons, forming a monocation and a dication, and can deliver one proton, forming a monoanion. The tautomeric behavior is particularly rich for the monocation, for which computational analysis predicts four different tautomers in a narrow energy range of 2 kcal/mol. Two of these tautomers (2H-7H-8H and 3H-7H-8H) have been isolated in salts of the monocation with suitable counterions (chloride, bromide, perchlorate). Surprisingly, the most stable predicted tautomer, 1H-3H-7H, has not been found in the four crystallized salts of the monocation. The energetic perchlorate salt of the monocation (3H-7H-8H tautomer) shows good thermal stability and good stability to impact, friction, and electric discharge. The packing of this compound shows the formation of H-bonded dimers with interactions between N8–H···N1. The crystal structure of this energetic salt was studied experimentally up to 2.8 GPa; no phase change or decomposition was observed.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2020

Molecular dynamics simulations for glass transition temperature predictions of polyhydroxyalkanoate biopolymers

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) represent an emerging class of biosynthetic and biodegradable polyesters that exhibit considerable potential to replace petroleum-based plastics towards a sustainable future. Despite the promise, general structure–property mappings within this class of polymers remain largely unexplored. An efficient exploration of this vast chemical space calls for the development and validation of predictive methods for accurate estimation of a diverse range of properties for PHA-based polymers. Towards this aim, we present and validate in this work the results of our molecular dynamics (MD) simulation based approach aimed at predicting glass transition temperatures (T g ) of PHA-based polymers. Since generally available and widely used polymer forcefields exhibit a relatively poor performance for T g predictions, we have developed a new forcefield by modifying the polymer consistent force field (PCFF) via refining a selected set of torsion potentials of the polymer backbone using accurate density functional theory (DFT) computations. After carefully assessing the dependence of critical simulation parameters, such as, polymer chain length, number of polymer chains, supercell size, and thermal quenching rate used in the simulation, the applicability and transferability of the modified PCFF (mPCFF) is demonstrated by directly comparing the computed T g predictions of various polymers with different chemistries, polymer side chain lengths and functional groups forming the polymer side chains against the respective experimentally measured values. Furthermore, the transport properties such as self-diffusion coefficient and viscosity are computationally determined and their well-known correlation with the target properties is demonstrated. Lastly, we have employed the developed approach to predict T g values for a number of yet-to-be-synthesized PHA-based polymers with a diverse set of functional groups in the polymer side chains. The results are further rationalized by correlating the predicted T g values with the inter-chain H-bond formation tendencies of the different side chain functional groups. This work represents an important first step towards computationally guided design of PHA-based functional polymers and opens up new directions for a systematic investigation of composition- and configuration-dependent structure–property relationships in more complex binary and ternary copolymer systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1975

Computer programs for calculating the static longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of wing-body-tail configurations

Four computer programs developed to calculate the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of wing-body and wing-body-tail combinations are presented. The R1307 program is based on a linear method and is limited to the small range of angles of attack for which the lift and moment characteristics of wings and bodies are linear with angle of attack. The CRSFLW program is based on a crossflow method of predicting the forces and moments on bodies alone or wing-body combinations over a large angle of attack range. The SUBSON program predicts the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of wing-body-tail combinations at subsonic speeds and at angles of attack for which symmetrical pairs of vortices are shed from the body nose and the leading and side edges of the lifting surfaces. Program SUPSON predicts the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of wing-body-tail combinations at supersonic speeds in the same angle-of-attack range. A description of the use of each program, instructions for preparation of input, a description of the output, program listings, and sample cases for each program are included.

Mendenhall, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Experimental heating distributions for biconics at incidence in Mach 10 air and comparison to prediction

Heating distributions were measured on a 1.9 percent scale model of a generic, aeroassisted vehicle proposed for missions to a number of planets and also a candidate as a moderate L/D earth orbital transfer vehicle. This vehicle is a spherically blunted, 13 deg/7 deg biconic with the fore-cone bent upward 7 deg to provide self-trim capability; also tested was a straight biconic with the same noise radius and half angles. These measurements were made in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel at values of the free-stream Reynolds number, based on model length, equal to 0.2 and 0.9 million. The angle of attack, referenced to the aft cone, was varied from 0 to 20 deg. Heating distributions predicted with a parabolized Navier Stokes (PNS) code are compared to measurement over the present range of Reynolds number and angle of attack. Windward heating was predicted to within 10 percent by the PNS code. Leeward heating distributions were predicted qualitatively for both values of Reynolds number, but quantitative agreement was poorer than on the windward side.

Miller, C. G.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Model analysis of remotely controlled rendezvous and docking with display prediction

Manual control of rendezvous and docking (RVD) of two spacecraft in low earth orbit by a remote human operator is discussed. Experimental evidence has shown that control performance degradation for large transmission delays (between spacecraft and operations control center) can be substantially improved by the introduction of predictor displays. An intial Optimal Control Model (OCM) analysis of RVD translational and rotational perturbation control was performed, with emphasis placed on the predictive capabilities of the combined Kalman estimator/optimal predictor with respect to control performance, for a range of time delays, motor noise levels and tracking axes. OCM predictions are then used as a reference for comparing tracking performance with a simple predictor display, as well as with no display prediction at all. Use is made here of an imperfect internal model formulation, whereby it is assumed that the human operator has no knowledge of the system transmission delay.

Milgram, P.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Wake Vortex Tracking Using a 35 GHz Pulsed Doppler Radar

A 35 GHz, pulsed-Doppler radar system has been designed and assembled for wake vortex detection and tracking in low visibility conditions. Aircraft wake vortices continue to be an important factor in determining safe following distances or spacings for aircraft in the terminal area. Currently, under instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), aircraft adhere to conservative, fixed following-distance guidelines based primarily on aircraft weight classifications. When ambient conditions are such that vortices will either drift or dissipate, leaving the flight corridor clear, the prescribed spacings are unnecessarily long and result in decreased airport throughput. There is a potential for significant airport efficiency improvement, if a system can be employed to aid regulators and pilots in setting safe and efficient following distances based on airport conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Agency, and Volpe National Transportation Systems Center have promoted and worked to develop systems that would increase airport capacity and provide for safe reductions in aircraft separation. The NASA Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS), a wake vortex spacing system that can provide dynamic adjustment of spacings based on real-time airport weather conditions, has demonstrated that Lidar systems can be successfully used to detect and track vortices in clear air conditions. To fill the need for detection capability in low-visibility conditions, a 35 GHz, pulsed-Doppler radar system is being investigated for use as a complimentary, low-visibility sensor for wake vortices. The radar sensor provides spatial and temporal information similar to that provided by Lidar, but under weather conditions that a Lidar cannot penetrate. Currently, we are analyzing the radar design based upon the data and experience gained during the wake vortex Lidar deployment with AVOSS at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. As part of this study, two numerical models were utilized in system simulations. The results of this study improve our understanding of the method of detection, resolution requirements for range and azimuth, pulse compression, and performance prediction. Simulations applying pulse compression techniques show that detection is good in heavy fog to greater than 2000 m. Both compressed and uncompressed short pulses show the vortex structure. To explore operational challenges, siting and scanning strategies were also analyzed. Simulation results indicate that excellent wake vortex detection, tracking and classification is possible in drizzle (+15 dBZ) and heavy fog (- 13 dBZ) using short pulse techniques (<99ns) at ranges on the order of 900 m, with a modest power of 500 W output. At 1600 m, detection can be expected at reflectivities as low as -13 dBZ (heavy fog). The radar system, as designed and built, has the potential to support field studies of a wake vortex spacing system in low-visibility conditions ranging from heavy fog to rain, when sited within 2000m of the flight path.

Neece, Robert T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Temporal Predictive Modelling of Sorghum Biomass Using UAV-Based Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

High-throughput phenotyping using high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution remote sensing (RS) data has become a critical part of the plant breeding chain focused on reducing the time and cost of the selection process for the “best” genotypes with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In this paper, the potential of accurate and reliable sorghum biomass prediction using visible and near infrared (VNIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral data as well as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired by sensors mounted on UAV platforms is investigated. Predictive models are developed using classical regression-based machine learning methods for nine experiments conducted during the 2017 and 2018 growing seasons at the Agronomy Center for Research and Education (ACRE) at Purdue University, Indiana, USA. The impact of the regression method, data source, timing of RS and field-based biomass reference data acquisition, and the number of samples on the prediction results are investigated. R2 values for end-of-season biomass ranged from 0.64 to 0.89 for different experiments when features from all the data sources were included. Geometry-based features derived from the LiDAR point cloud to characterize plant structure and chemistry-based features extracted from hyperspectral data provided the most accurate predictions. Evaluation of the impact of the time of data acquisition during the growing season on the prediction results indicated that although the most accurate and reliable predictions of final biomass were achieved using remotely sensed data from mid-season to end-of-season, predictions in mid-season provided adequate results to differentiate between promising varieties for selection. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the accuracies of the predictive models showed that both the data source and regression method are important factors for a reliable prediction; however, the data source was more important with 69% significance, versus 28% significance for the regression method.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗