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Orthoimagery and Shapefiles Documenting Pre- and Post-August 2019 Slope Disturbances, Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018-2019

This dataset was derived from UAS aerial photos and dGPS data collected at the Teller mile marker 47 site in 2018 and 2019 and used to support research quantifying the timing and rate of surface movements and analyze soil transport process in Arctic landscapes. In July 2018, a Phantom uncrewed aerial system (UAS) collected >6800 high resolution aerial photos of the lower portion of the Teller 47 watershed (see for raw photos; pending archive NGA281). During the UAS survey, 25 x 25 cm tile ground control points (GCPs) were laid out and secured with one rebar rod in the center. The four corners and rebar tops were surveyed with differential GPS, and these coordinates were used to construct and validate an orthomosaic of the site. These points were resurveyed in August 2019 and used to track annual movement. Changes in position between the two surveys are reported in (Lathrop et al. 2022; NGA254). Agisoft Metashape photogrammetry software was used to construct a georeferenced orthomosaic image (*.tif file) of a portion (0.68 km2) of the watershed with a final resolution of ~1 cm. Manual delineation of the perimeters of failures visible in the UAS imagery (*.tif files) was conducted to create shapefile polygons (two *.zip files). The failures were identified by the exposure of bare mineral soils, which were made visible by disruption of the overlying tundra vegetation. The shapefiles were then used to analyse the topographic distribution and sizes of the failures. In August 2019 an additional ~300 georeferenced UAS images of slope instability features were collected (data pending submission) and compared with the 2018 orthomosaic. Overview maps of the failure locations included as a *.pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Occultation studies of the solar system

Occultations of stars by planets, satellites, planetary ring systems, asteroids, and comets provide valuable opportunities to probe the Solar System in ways otherwise impossible from the surface of the earth. For example, one can precisely measure the size and shape of objects which are much too small to be resolved directly, accurately map the structure and transparency of ring systems, and detect the faintest trace of an atmosphere. In this investigation, researchers identify upcoming occultations through wide-ranging computer searches, provide accurate predictions for the more important events, and observe selected occultations with our specially designed portable photometric equipment. During the past year, researchers produced accurate predictions for an occultation of AG+40 degrees 0783 by 324 Bamberga on 8 December 1987 and coordinated efforts to observe this event. The occultation was successfully observed at 13 sites including two manned by Lowell Observatory astronomers.

Millis, Robert L.↗

Performance of FFT methods in local gravity field modelling

Fast Fourier transform (FFT) methods provide a fast and efficient means of processing large amounts of gravity or geoid data in local gravity field modelling. The FFT methods, however, has a number of theoretical and practical limitations, especially the use of flat-earth approximation, and the requirements for gridded data. In spite of this the method often yields excellent results in practice when compared to other more rigorous (and computationally expensive) methods, such as least-squares collocation. The good performance of the FFT methods illustrate that the theoretical approximations are offset by the capability of taking into account more data in larger areas, especially important for geoid predictions. For best results good data gridding algorithms are essential. In practice truncated collocation approaches may be used. For large areas at high latitudes the gridding must be done using suitable map projections such as UTM, to avoid trivial errors caused by the meridian convergence. The FFT methods are compared to ground truth data in New Mexico (xi, eta from delta g), Scandinavia (N from delta g, the geoid fits to 15 cm over 2000 km), and areas of the Atlantic (delta g from satellite altimetry using Wiener filtering). In all cases the FFT methods yields results comparable or superior to other methods.

Forsberg, Rene↗

Estimates of elastic plate thicknesses beneath large volcanos on Venus

Megellan radar imaging and topography data are now available for a number of volcanos on Venus greater than 100 km in radius. These data can be examined to reveal evidence of the flexural response of the lithosphere to the volcanic load. On Earth, flexure beneath large hotspot volcanos results in an annual topographic moat that is partially to completely filled in by sedimentation and mass wasting from the volcano's flanks. On Venus, erosion and sediment deposition are considered to be negligible at the resolution of Magellan images. Thus, it may be possible to observe evidence of flexure by the ponding of recent volcanic flows in the moat. We also might expect to find topographic signals from unfilled moats surrounding large volcanos on Venus, although these signals may be partially obscured by regional topography. Also, in the absence of sedimentation, tectonic evidence of deformation around large volcanos should be evident except where buried by very young flows. We use analytic solutions in axisymmetric geometry for deflections and stresses resulting from loading of a plate overlying an inviscid fluid. Solutions for a set of disk loads are superimposed to obtain a solution for a conical volcano. The deflection of the lithosphere produces an annular depression or moat, the extent of which can be estimated by measuring the distance from the volcano's edge to the first zero crossing or to the peak of the flexural arch. Magellan altimetry data records (ARCDRs) from data cycle 1 are processed using the GMT mapping and graphics software to produce topographic contour maps of the volcanos. We then take topographic profiles that cut across the annular and ponded flows seen on the radar images. By comparing the locations of these flows to the predicted moat locations from a range of models, we estimate the elastic plate thickness that best fits the observations, together with the uncertainty in that estimate.

Mcgovern, Patrick J.↗

Reactant conversion in homogeneous turbulence - Mathematical modeling, computational validations, and practical applications

The presently obtained closed-form analytical expressions, which predict the limiting rate of mean reactant conversion in homogeneous turbulent flows under the influence of a binary reaction, are derived via the single-point pdf method based on amplitude mapping closure. With this model, the maximum rate of the mean reactant's decay can be conveniently expressed in terms of definite integrals of the parabolic cylinder functions. The results obtained are shown to be in good agreement with data generated by direct numerical simulations.

Madnia, C. K.↗

Total solar eclipse of 1995 October 24

A total eclipse of the sun will be visible from Asia and the Pacific Ocean on 24 Oct. 1995. The path of the moon's shadow begins in the Middle East and sweeps across India, Southeast Asia, and the waters of the Indonesian archipelago before ending at sunset in the Pacific. Detailed predictions for this event are presented and include besselian elements, geographic coordinates of the path of totality, physical ephemeris of the umbra, topocentric limb profile corrections, local circumstances for 400 cities, maps of the eclipse path, weather prospects, the lunar limb profile, and the sky during totality.

Espenak, Fred↗

Total Solar Eclipse of 1997 March 9

A total eclipse of the Sun will be visible from Asia and the Pacific Ocean on 1997 March 9. The path of the Moon's umbral shadow begins in eastern Kazakhstan and travels through Mongolia and eastern Siberia, where it swings northward to end at sunset in the Arctic Ocean. A partial eclipse will be seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes eastern Asia, the northern Pacific, and the northwest corner of North America. Detailed predictions for this event are presented and include besselian elements, geographic coordinates of the path of totality, physical ephemeris of the umbra, topocentric limb profile corrections, local circumstances for 280 cities, maps of the eclipse path, weather prospects, the lunar limb profile, and the sky during totality. Tips and suggestions are also given on how to safely view and photograph the eclipse.

Espenak, Fred↗

Numerical Simulations of Wing-Body Junction Flows

The goal of the research project is to contribute to the optimized design of fan bypass systems in advanced turbofan engines such as the Advanced Ducted Propulsors (ADP). The immediate objective is to perform numerical simulation of duct-strut interactions to elucidate the loss mechanisms associated with this configuration that is characteristic of ADP. These numerical simulations would complement an experimental study being undertaken at Purdue University. As the first step in the process, a numerical study of wing-body junction flow is being undertaken as it shares a number of characteristics with the duct-strut interaction flow. The presence of the characteristic horseshoe vortex and the associated secondary flow are the salient features that contribute to making this flow a challenge to predict numerically. The simulations will be performed with the NPARC code on the CRAY Y-MP platform at LeRC. The grids for the simulation have been generated using an algebraic mapping technique with a multisurface algorithm.

Krishnamurthy, R.↗

Microgravity Two-Phase Flow Transition

Two-phase flows under microgravity condition find a large number of important applications in fluid handling and storage, and spacecraft thermal management. Specifically, under microgravity condition heat transfer between heat exchanger surfaces and fluids depend critically on the distribution and interaction between different fluid phases which are often qualitatively different from the gravity-based systems. Heat transfer and flow analysis in two-phase flows under these conditions require a clear understanding of the flow pattern transition and development of appropriate dimensionless scales for its modeling and prediction. The physics of this flow is however very complex and remains poorly understood. This has led to various inadequacies in flow and heat transfer modeling and has made prediction of flow transition difficult in engineering design of efficient thermal and flow systems. In the present study the available published data for flow transition under microgravity condition are considered for mapping. The transition from slug to annular flow and from bubbly to slug flow are mapped using dimensionless variable combination developed in a previous study by the authors. The result indicate that the new maps describe the flow transitions reasonably well over the range of the data available. The transition maps are examined and the results are discussed in relation to the presumed balance of forces and flow dynamics. It is suggested that further evaluation of the proposed flow and transition mapping will require a wider range of microgravity data expected to be made available in future studies.

Parang, M.↗

Formal Aspects of Human-Automation Interaction

While new versions of automated control systems such as flight guidance systems are introduced at a rapid pace, it is widely recognized that user interaction with these machines is increasingly problematic. One cause for this difficulty that is commonly cited in the literature, is the discrepancy between the machine's behavior and the operator's (e.g., pilot) expectations. This paper discusses a formal approach to the analysis of operator's interaction with complex automated control systems. We focus attention on the issue of interface correctness; that is, on the question whether the display provides adequate information about the machine's configurations (states, modes, and associated parameters) and transitions, so as to enable the operator to successfully perform the specified set of tasks. To perform the analysis several assumptions are made: (1) A complete formal model of the machine's behavior is available (e.g., as a state transition system, or as a hybrid-machine); (2) A specification of operator's tasks is available and can be formally described (e.g., the reliable and predictable transition between activities involved in executing a climb to a new altitude); (3) The pilot is well trained and has a correct 'mental' model of the machine's response-map. By 'comparing' the machine's model with the set of operator's tasks we formally (i.e., mathematically) evaluate two questions: 1) does the machine's output interface (display) enable the operator to determine, unambiguously, what the current configuration (e.g., mode) of the machine is, and 2) does the display enable the operator to determine, unambiguously, what the next configuration of the machine will be, in response to a specified interaction by the operator (e.g., engaging a mode or changing a parameter such as a speed or target altitude). This paper describes a methodology for conducting such an evaluation using examples from automated flight control systems of modem 'glass cockpit' jetliners. Taxonomy of the different types of discrepancies that lead to pilot inability to resolve the current and next configuration of the machine is suggested. Data from incident reports involving 'mode confusion' is used to corroborate these discrepancies. Finally, means for compensating, either by augmenting the display and/or the operator's 'mental model' are briefly mentioned.

Degani, Asaf↗

The Use 0f AVIRIS Imagery To Assess Clay Mineralogy And Debris-Flow Potential In Cataract Canyon, Utah: A Preliminary Report

Worldwide debris flows destroy property and take human lives every year (Costa, 1984). As a result of extensive property damage and loss of life there is a pressing need to go beyond just describing the nature and extent of debris flows as they occur. Most of the research into debris-flow initiation has centered on rainfall, slope angle, and existing debris-flow deposits (Costa and Wieczorek, 1987). The factor of source lithology has been recently addressed by studies in the sedimentary terranes of Grand Canyon (Webb et al., 1996; Griffiths et al., 1996) and on the Colorado Plateau as a whole.3 On the Colorado Plateau shales dominated by kaolinite and illite clays are significantly more likely to be recent producers of debris-flows than are shales in which smectite clays dominate.3 Establishing the location of shales and colluvial deposits containing kaolinite and illite clays in sedimentary terranes on the Colorado Plateau is essential to predicting where debris flows are likely to occur. AVIRIS imagery can be used to distinguish between types of clay minerals (Chabrillat et al., 2001), providing the basis for surface-materials maps. The ultimate product of this study will be a model that can be used to estimate the debris-flow hazard in Cataract Canyon, Utah. This model will be based on GIS overlay analysis of debris-flow initiation factor maps, including surface-materials maps derived from AVIRIS data.

Rudd, Lawrence↗

Total Solar Eclipse of 2008 August 01

On 2008 August 01, a total eclipse of the Sun is visible from within a narrow corridor that traverses half the Earth. The path of the Moon's umbral shadow begins in northern Canada and extends across Greenland, the Arctic, central Russia, Mongolia, and China. A partial eclipse is seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes northeastern North America, most of Europe and Asia. Detailed predictions for this event are presented and include besselian elements, geographic coordinates of the path of totality, physical ephemeris of the umbra, topocentric limb profile corrections, local circumstances for 308 cities, maps of the eclipse path, weather prospects, the lunar limb profile and the sky during totality. Information on safe eclipse viewing and eclipse photography is included.

Espenak, F.↗

Laser Ranging Simulation Program

Laser Ranging Simulation Program (LRSP) is a computer program that predicts selected aspects of the performances of a laser altimeter or other laser ranging or remote-sensing systems and is especially applicable to a laser-based system used to map terrain from a distance of several kilometers. Designed to run in a more recent version (5 or higher) of the MATLAB programming language, LRSP exploits the numerical and graphical capabilities of MATLAB. LRSP generates a graphical user interface that includes a pop-up menu that prompts the user for the input of data that determine the performance of a laser ranging system. Examples of input data include duration and energy of the laser pulse, the laser wavelength, the width of the laser beam, and several parameters that characterize the transmitting and receiving optics, the receiving electronic circuitry, and the optical properties of the atmosphere and the terrain. When the input data have been entered, LRSP computes the signal-to-noise ratio as a function of range, signal and noise currents, and ranging and pointing errors.

Piazolla, Sabino↗

All-Sky Observational Evidence for An Inverse Correlation Between Dust Temperature and Emissivity Spectral Index

We show that a one-component variable-emissivity-spectral-index model (the free- model) provides more physically motivated estimates of dust temperature at the Galactic polar caps than one- or two-component fixed-emissivity-spectral-index models (fixed- models) for interstellar dust thermal emission at far-infrared and millimeter wavelengths. For the comparison we have fit all-sky one-component dust models with fixed or variable emissivity spectral index to a new and improved version of the 210-channel dust spectra from the COBE-FIRAS, the 100-240 micrometer maps from the COBE-DIRBE and the 94 GHz dust map from the WMAP. The best model, the free-alpha model, is well constrained by data at 60-3000 GHz over 86 per cent of the total sky area. It predicts dust temperature (T(sub dust)) to be 13.7-22.7 (plus or minus 1.3) K, the emissivity spectral index (alpha) to be 1.2-3.1 (plus or minus 0.3) and the optical depth (tau) to range 0.6-46 x 10(exp -5) with a 23 per cent uncertainty. Using these estimates, we present all-sky evidence for an inverse correlation between the emissivity spectral index and dust temperature, which fits the relation alpha = 1/(delta + omega (raised dot) T(sub dust) with delta = -.0.510 plus or minus 0.011 and omega = 0.059 plus or minus 0.001. This best model will be useful to cosmic microwave background experiments for removing foreground dust contamination and it can serve as an all-sky extended-frequency reference for future higher resolution dust models.

Liang, Z.↗

Predictive Modeling for Differential Diagnosis and Mortality Risk Assessment

The prevalence of electronic health record (EHR) systems has brought prodigious biomedical informatics opportunity. Automated machine learning methods can effectively utilize such data and have become common tools for healthcare predictive modeling. Researches in medical informatics have explored the potential of deep learning and classical models in emergent care scenarios. In particular, predicting differential diagnoses for admissions have proven useful in decreasing unnecessary lab tests and improving inpatient triage decision-making. Moreover, identification of high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality is vitally important to maximize allocation of medical resources.The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, containing de-identified critical care inpatient was used in our study. This data set captures hospital patient laboratory measurements, pharmacologic prescriptions, diagnostic data and procedure event recordings. When considering adult patients and discounting admissions with ICU length of stay less than 24 hours, there were 37,787 unique admissions and 30,414 total patients. We examined the top 25 most prevalent ICD-9 group-level disease specificities in MIMIC-III using a multi-label classification model. In-hospital mortality was modeled as binary classification with 4,155 (13%) adult patients that expired, of which 3,138 (75.5%) were in the ICU setting. The metrics AUC, F1 score, sensitivity and specificity values calculated for each disease label measured prediction performance.The usage of ICD-9 group codes reduced feature dimension from 14,567 to 942 and greatly improved distribution of patient diagnostic categories. Disease temporal patterns were captured by considering the most frequently sampled 6 vital signs and 13 laboratory values. Missing data were imputed at each time-stamp. Time-series raw hourly average values were converted into 5 summary features (mean, standard deviation, number of observations, min & max values). Patient demographic variables such as age, gender, marital status and ethnicity were also factored into the modeling. Choi et al showed that contextual embedding of medical data, diagnostic and procedural codes alone can predict future diagnoses with sensitivity as high as 0.79. We utilized an embedding technique called word2vec which allowed sparse representations of medical history to be transformed into dense word vectors. The mappings captured contextual information by treating each admission as a sentence and learning the most likely neighboring words in a sliding window fashion. Binary and multi-label classification was achieved via collapse models, which do not consider temporal information, as well as recurrent neural networks with regularization, Softmax output layer activation together with categorical cross-entropy as the loss function.

US Army collaboration↗

HYTHIRM Radiance Modeling and Image Analyses in Support of STS-119, STS-125 and STS-128 Space Shuttle Hypersonic Re-entries

We provide the first geometrically accurate (i.e., 3-D) temperature maps of the entire windward surface of the Space Shuttle during hypersonic reentry. To accomplish this task we began with estimated surface temperatures derived from CFD models at integral high Mach numbers and used them, the Shuttle's surface properties and reasonable estimates of the sensor-to-target geometry to predict the emitted spectral radiance from the surface (in units of W sr-1 m-2 nm-1). These data were converted to sensor counts using properties of the sensor (e.g. aperture, spectral band, and various efficiencies), the expected background, and the atmosphere transmission to inform the optimal settings for the near-infrared and midwave IR cameras on the Cast Glance aircraft. Once these data were collected, calibrated, edited, registered and co-added we formed both 2-D maps of the scene in the above units and 3-D maps of the bottom surface in temperature that could be compared with not only the initial inputs but also thermocouple data from the Shuttle itself. The 3-D temperature mapping process was based on the initial radiance modeling process. Here temperatures were guessed for each node in a well-resolved 3-D framework, a radiance model was produced and compared to the processed imagery, and corrections to the temperature were estimated until the iterative process converged. This process did very well in characterizing the temperature structure of the large asymmetric boundary layer transition the covered much of the starboard bottom surface of STS-119 Discovery. Both internally estimated accuracies and differences with CFD models and thermocouple measurements are at most a few percent. The technique did less well characterizing the temperature structure of the turbulent wedge behind the trip due to limitations in understanding the true sensor resolution. (Note: Those less inclined to read the entire paper are encouraged to read an Executive Summary provided at the end.)

Gibson, David M.↗

Toward Comprehensive Uncertainty Predictions for Remote Imaging Spectroscopy

Remote imaging spectroscopy’s role in Earth science will grow in the coming decade as a series of globe-spanning spectroscopy missions launch from NASA, ESA, and other agencies. The nature of remote imaging spectroscopy will change, advancing from short regional studies to address global multi-year questions. The diversity of data will also grow with exposure to a wider range of biomes and atmospheric conditions. To execute these new investigations we must reconcile diverse observing conditions to derive consistent global maps. To this end, rig- orous uncertainty quantification and propagation enables an optimal synthesis of data accounting for observing conditions and data quality. Understanding data uncertainties is also important for principled hypothesis testing, information content assessment, and informed decision making by end users. We survey prior efforts in uncer- tainty quantification for imaging spectroscopy, and describe methods for validating the accuracy of uncertainty predictions. We conclude with a discussion of remaining challenges and promising avenues for future research.

Susiluoto, Jouni↗

Genome‐wide association and genomic prediction for yield and component traits of Miscanthus sacchariflorus

Abstract Accelerating biomass improvement is a major goal of Miscanthus breeding. The development and implementation of genomic‐enabled breeding tools, like marker‐assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection, has the potential to improve the efficiency of Miscanthus breeding. The present study conducted genome‐wide association (GWA) and genomic prediction of biomass yield and 14 yield‐components traits in Miscanthus sacchariflorus . We evaluated a diversity panel with 590 accessions of M. sacchariflorus grown across 4 years in one subtropical and three temperate locations and genotyped with 268,109 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The GWA study identified a total of 835 significant SNPs and 674 candidate genes across all traits and locations. Of the significant SNPs identified, 280 were localized in mapped quantitative trait loci intervals and proximal to SNPs identified for similar traits in previously reported Miscanthus studies, providing additional support for the importance of these genomic regions for biomass yield. Our study gave insights into the genetic basis for yield‐component traits in M. sacchariflorus that may facilitate marker‐assisted breeding for biomass yield. Genomic prediction accuracy for the yield‐related traits ranged from 0.15 to 0.52 across all locations and genetic groups. Prediction accuracies within the six genetic groupings of M. sacchariflorus were limited due to low sample sizes. Nevertheless, the Korea/NE China/Russia ( N = 237) genetic group had the highest prediction accuracy of all genetic groups (ranging 0.26–0.71), suggesting that with adequate sample sizes, there is strong potential for genomic selection within the genetic groupings of M. sacchariflorus . This study indicated that MAS and genomic prediction will likely be beneficial for conducting population‐improvement of M. sacchariflorus .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗