Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Predicting Atomistic Transitions with Transformers

Accurate knowledge of the atomistic transition pathways in materials and material surfaces is crucial for many material science problems. However, conventional simulation techniques used to find these transitions are extremely computationally intensive. Even with large-scale, accelerated material simulations, the computational cost constrains the applicable domain in practice. Machine learning models, with the potential to learn the complex emergent behaviors governing atomistic transitions as a fast surrogate model, have great promise to predict transitions with a vastly reduced computational cost. Here, we demonstrate how transformers can be trained to predict atomistic transitions in nano-clusters. We show how we evaluate physical validity of the predictions and how a multitude of additional, different microstates can be generated by slightly varying the data provided to the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quasi-equilibrium predictions of water desorption kinetics from rapidly-heated metal oxide surfaces

Controlling sub-microsecond desorption of water and other impurities from electrode surfaces at high heating rates is crucial for pulsed power applications. Despite the short time scales involved, quasi-equilibrium ideas based on transition state theory (TST) and Arrhenius temperature dependence have been widely applied to fit desorption activation free energies. Here, we apply molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in conjunction with equilibrium potential-of-mean-force (PMF) techniques to directly compute the activation free energies (ΔG*) associated with desorption of intact water molecules from Fe 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 (0001) surfaces. The desorption free energy profiles are diffuse, without maxima, and have substantial dependences on temperature and surface water coverage. Incorporating the predicted ΔG* into an analytical form gives rate equations that are in reasonable agreement with non-equilibrium molecular dynamics desorption simulations. We also show that different ΔG* analytical functional forms which give similar predictions at a particular heating rate can yield desorption times that differ by up to a factor of four or more when the ramp rate is extrapolated by 8 orders of magnitude. This highlights the importance of constructing a physically-motivated ΔG* functional form to predict fast desorption kinetics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Quantitative Predictive Theories through Integrating Quantum, Statistical, Equilibrium, and Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics

Today's thermodynamics is largely based on the combined law for equilibrium systems and statistical mechanics derived by Gibbs in 1873 and 1901, respectively, while irreversible thermodynamics for nonequilibrium systems resides essentially on the Onsager Theorem as a separate branch of thermodynamics developed in 1930s. Between them, quantum mechanics was invented and was quantitatively solved in terms of density functional theory (DFT) in 1960s. Furthermore, these three scientific domains operate based on different principles and are very much separated from each other. In analogy to the parable of the blind men and the elephant articulated by Perdew, they individually represent different portions of a complex system and thus are incomplete by themselves alone, resulting in the lack of quantitative agreement between their predictions and experimental observations. Over the last two decades, the author's group has developed a multiscale entropy approach (recently termed as zentropy theory) that integrates DFT-based quantum mechanics and Gibbs statistical mechanics and is capable of accurately predicting entropy and free energy of complex systems. Furthermore, in combination with the combined law for nonequilibrium systems developed by Hillert, the author developed the theory of cross phenomena beyond the phenomenological Onsager Theorem. The zentropy theory and theory of cross phenomena jointly provide quantitative predictive theories for systems from electronic to any observable scales as reviewed in the present work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Role of perturbed parallel magnetic field effects in predicting turbulent transport in NSTX

This study presents analysis of gyrokinetic simulations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) to investigate the effects of electromagnetic fields on plasma turbulence and transport. The simulations, performed with varying levels of fidelity using the gyrokinetic CGYRO code, include electrostatic (ES), single-field electromagnetic (EM1), and two-field electromagnetic (EM2) models. A detailed comparison across the simulation database reveals that electromagnetic effects increase both predicted growth rates and quasilinear fluxes, with EM2 simulations producing stronger turbulence than ES and EM1 cases. Quasilinear modeling using QLGYRO demonstrates that while the perturbed parallel magnetic field (δB ∥ ) does not drastically affect the total flux at experimental gradients, it leads to a shift in the dominant instability, altering mode structures from microtearing to kinetic ballooning modes (KBMs). The proximity of the plasma profiles to the KBM threshold is explored, with the experimental conditions being near the onset of KBM-driven transport. The KBM, with its large growth rates, is identified as a potential driver of electron temperature flattening, as it can rapidly transport heat across flux surfaces. Performing stability analysis shows core-localized unstable a low- mode that could contribute to the flattening at the early times of the discharge. TGYRO predictive modeling, incorporating both TGLF and QLGYRO, indicates that the inclusion of δB ∥ significantly improves the accuracy of temperature profile predictions in NSTX high-beta plasmas, although challenges remain in modeling the sharp flux discontinuities caused by KBM-driven instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluation of predictive correlation between flux expulsion and grain growth for superconducting radio frequency cavities

Abstract A series of experiments were carried out in an effort to develop a simple method for predicting the magnetic flux expulsion behavior of high purity niobium used to fabricate superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities. Using conventional metallographic characterizations in conjunction with high spatial resolution electron backscattered diffraction-orientation imaging microscopy, we find that the flux expulsion behavior of 1.3 GHz single cell SRF Nb cavities is significantly associated with the grain growth of the Nb material during heat treatment. Most of the Nb grains rapidly grew during 900 °C heat treatment, and were likely full-recrystallized with 1000 °C HT. When compared to the magnetic flux expulsion ratio ( B sc / B nc ) at Δ T = 5 K, the flux expulsion efficiency of the cavities increases with the increase of grain size. Most interestingly, 900 °C HT shows a roughly linear trend that suggests that this criterion could be used to predict the appropriate heat treatment temperature for sufficient flux expulsion behavior in SRF-grade Nb. This result can be used to see if flux expulsion can be predicted by examining the materials coming from Nb vendors, prior to cavity fabrication.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Predicting the critical gradient of ITG turbulence in fusion plasmas

The quasilinear mixing-length approach to efficient prediction of transport in fusion devices is improved to account for the ‘Dimits’ upshift between linear and nonlinear critical pressure gradients in zonal-flow-saturated turbulence regimes. This modification uses the frequency mismatch between modes interacting turbulently to track changes in saturation efficiency. Near criticality, energy is transferred exclusively to stable eigenmodes, rapidly increasing the efficacy of the nonlinearity. Finally, the modified quasilinear model is able to predict below-threshold turbulent ion-temperature-gradient-driven transport accurately and also yields significantly improved predictions for trapped-electron-mode transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improved scaling law for the prediction of deuterium retention in beryllium co-deposits

Hydrogen isotope co-deposition with Be eroded from the first wall is expected to be the main fusion fuel retention mechanism in ITER. Since good fuel accounting is crucial for economic and safety reasons, reliable predictions of hydrogen isotope retention are needed. Furthermore, this study builds upon the well-established empirical De Temmerman scaling law that predicts D/Be ratios in co-deposited layers based on deposition temperature, deposition rate, and deuterium particle energy. Expanding the data used in the original development of the scaling law with an additional dataset obtained with more recent measurements using a different technique to the original De Temmerman approach, allows us to obtain new values for free parameters and improve the prediction capabilities of the new scaling law. In an effort to improve the model even further, scaling with D 2 background pressure was included and a new two-term model derived, describing D retention in low- and high-energy traps separately.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations of the tokamak plasma boundary for model predictive control using SINDy *

Abstract Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations have been used to identify reduced models with the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) method and develop model-predictive control of the boundary plasma state using main ion gas puff actuation. A series of gas actuation sequences are input into SOLPS-ITER to produce a dynamic response in upstream and divertor plasma quantities. The SINDy method is applied to identify reduced linear and nonlinear models for the electron density at the outboard midplane n e , s e p O M P and the electron temperature at the outer divertor T e , s e p d i v . Note that T e , s e p d i v is not necessarily the peak value of T e along the divertor. The identified reduced models are interpretable by construction (i.e. not black box), and have the form of coupled ordinary differential equations. Despite significant noise in T e , s e p d i v , the reduced models can be used to predict the response over a range of actuation levels to a maximum deviation of 0.5% in n e , s e p O M P and 5%–10% in T e , s e p d i v for the cases considered. Model retraining using time history data triggered by a preset error threshold is also demonstrated. A model predictive control strategy for nonlinear models is developed and used to perform feedback control of a SOLPS-ITER simulation to produce a setpoint trajectory in n e , s e p O M P using the integrated plasma simulator framework. The developed techniques are general and can be applied to time-dependent data from other boundary simulations or experimental data. Ongoing work is extending the approach to model identification and control for divertor detachment, which will present transient nonlinear behavior from impurity seeding, including realistic latency and synthetic diagnostic signals derived from the full SOLPS-ITER output.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Enhancing predictive capabilities in fusion burning plasmas through surrogate-based optimization in core transport solvers

Abstract This work presents the PORTALS framework (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 076036), which leverages surrogate modeling and optimization techniques to enable the prediction of core plasma profiles and performance with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations at significantly reduced cost, with no loss of accuracy. The efficiency of PORTALS is benchmarked against standard methods, and its full potential is demonstrated on a unique, simultaneous 5-channel (electron temperature, ion temperature, electron density, impurity density and angular rotation) prediction of steady-state profiles in a DIII-D ITER Similar Shape plasma with GPU-accelerated, nonlinear CGYRO (Candy et al 2016 J. Comput. Phys. 324 73–93). This paper also provides general guidelines for accurate performance predictions in burning plasmas and the impact of transport modeling in fusion pilot plants studies.

Physics↗

Prediction of transport in the JET DTE2 discharges with TGLF and NEO models using the TGYRO transport code

Abstract The JET Deuterium-Tritium-Experiment Campaign 2 (DTE2) has demonstrated the highest-ever fusion energy production. To forecast the transport dynamics within these discharges, the TGLF and NEO models within the TGYRO transport code were employed. A critical development in this study is the new quasilinear transport model, TGLF-SAT2, specifically designed to resolve discrepancies identified in JET deuterium discharges. This model accurately describes the saturated three-dimensional (3D) fluctuation spectrum, aligning closely with a database of nonlinear CGYRO turbulence simulations, thereby enhancing the predictive accuracy of TGYRO simulations. In validating against the JET DTE2 discharges across two primary operating scenarios, TGYRO effectively predicted the temperature profiles within a broad radial window ( ρ ∼ 0.2–0.85), though with minor ion temperature discrepancies near the core. However, a consistent underprediction of electron density profiles by 20% across the simulation domain was noted, indicating areas for future refinement. To achieve a self-consistent steady-state solution based on the JET DTE2 discharges, an integrated modeling workflow TGYRO-STEP within the OMFIT framework was introduced. This workflow iterates among the core transport, the pedestal pressure and the MHD equilibrium, ultimately yielding a converged solution that significantly reduces dependence on experimental boundary conditions for temperature and density profiles. The integrated simulation results show negligible differences in electron density and temperature profiles compared to standalone TGYRO modeling, while the ion temperature profile is lower due to the updated boundary condition in TGYRO-STEP. The application of the TGYRO-STEP workflow to JET DTE2 discharges serves as a crucial test to validate its robustness and highlights its limitations, providing valuable insights for its potential future application in ITER and Fusion Power Plant deuterium and tritium prediction modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Successful prediction of tokamak transport in the L-mode regime

A long standing shortfall in the predicted L-mode edge energy transport by reduced quasi-linear models of gyrokinetic turbulent transport has been resolved. The improved model TGLF-SAT2 has higher fidelity to gyrokinetic simulations of the electron-scale contribution to the electron energy transport and the ion-scale flux surface shape dependence of energy transport. The success of TGLF-SAT2 in predicting the L-mode and Ohmic edge profiles is critical to whole pulse simulation and opens the door to prediction of the H-mode power threshold.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validation of prediction capability of operating space for plasma initiation in MAST-U

DYON is a plasma initiation modelling code that solves the differential equation system of the full circuit equations (plasma current, active coil currents and eddy currents in full passive structures) and 0D global energy and particle balance equations (Kim 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 126012). In order to test the capability of the full electromagnetic plasma initiation model to predict individual discharges in experiments and thus the operating space in the device, a dedicated experimental database was built in MAST-U by scanning the prefilled gas pressure p 0 and the induced loop voltage V loop . In the experimental operating space of p 0 and V loop the lower and the upper limits of p 0 are determined by the plasma breakdown failure and the plasma burn-through failure, respectively. The lower limit of V loop is determined by the plasma burn-through failure. By directly reading the control room data used in each discharge (i.e. currents in the solenoid, poloidal field coils, and toroidal field coils, p 0 , and gas puffing rate), the full electromagnetic DYON consistently predicted the failed breakdown, failed burn-through, and successful plasma initiation discharges in the experimental database, demonstrating its capability to predict the operating space for inductive plasma initiation. The Paschen curve calculated with the effective connection length in MAST-U indicates a much higher p 0 required for plasma breakdown than the experimental data, indicating that individual field line evaluation is necessary to calculate the quantitative requirements for Townsend breakdown. The demonstration in this paper shows that the full electromagnetic DYON could be a useful simulation tool to assess the feasibility of inductive plasma initiation and to optimise operating scenarios in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

WEST L-mode record long pulses guided by predictions using Integrated Modeling

A new record was set on the WEST Tokamak, designed to operate long duration plasmas in a tungsten (W) environment, with an injected energy of 1.15 GJ and a plasma duration 364s. Scenario development was supported by integrated modeling using the High Fidelity Plasma Simulator (HFPS), the European IMAS-coupled version of JETTO/JINTRAC, which integrates physics-driven modules into a unified framework. In particular, a reduced model for Lower-Hybrid heating and Current-Drive (LHCD) and the quasi-linear turbulent transport model TGLF are crucial for long pulses predictions up to the Last Closed Flux Surface (LCFS). Using this workflow, a 100 s reference discharge was modeled and plasma kinetic profiles and loop voltage were quantitatively well matched. In preparation for the recent long duration experiments, non-inductive current-drive actuators (I P , n e , P LHCD ) were varied to determine the operational domain going towards fully non-inductive discharges. In particular, decreasing the plasma current is shown to ease the access to such conditions, with a careful monitoring of (n e , P LHCD ) to avoid machine limitations. In addition, post-prediction experiments conducted within the investigated parameter range validated the predicted dependencies and were shown to be in quantitative agreement. Exploratory work on the use of ECCD for MHD stability purpose is also introduced.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-machine validation of plasma initiation modelling and prospects for future devices: Predicting plasma initiation using only hardware design and control room input data

This paper reports on the generic prediction capability of full electromagnetic plasma initiation modelling with DYON, which was carried out for the first time in fusion research by the joint modelling of the International Tokamak Physics Activity—Integrating Operation Scenario group. The following devices were included in the experiment database: VEST (spherical torus, copper coils, Stainless steel wall, R/a = 0.3 m/0.2 m, V v = 3.7 m 3 ), MAST-U (spherical torus, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 0.7 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ), EAST (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, metallic wall, R/a = 1.85 m/0.5 m, V v = 38 m 3 ), DIII-D (conventional tokamak, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 1.67 m/0.65 m, V v = 35 m 3 ), and KSTAR (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, C wall, R/a = 1.8 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ). Despite the different hardware features of the devices, the required operating spaces of the loop voltage induction and prefill gas pressure for inductive plasma initiation in each device were successfully reproduced by the predictive simulations with DYON using only the individual hardware design and the control room input data for each discharge. This successful validation across multiple machines demonstrates that the full electromagnetic DYON modelling can capture the essential physics of inductive plasma initiation. The simulation settings commonly employed for all modelling and the modifications necessary to account for the discrepancies between individual devices are reported. Predictions for ITER based on the multi-machine validation indicate that a wide range of prefill gas pressures exists for the Townsend breakdown and the plasma burn-through (0.01–1.5 mPa).

DYON↗

Variations in lithium vapor cave performance predictions due to radial transport and recycling assumptions

The lithium vapor cave is a detached divertor design that uses a single private flux region baffle to contain a dense cloud of lithium vapor to dissipate heat flux. Plasma flows are created via fuel gas puffing in order to minimize lithium contamination of the main plasma. Significant modeling using the 2D edge code SOLPS-ITER has already been performed, predicting that sufficient target heat flux reductions (q$^{max}_{Target}$ MW m −2 ) with ( $n$ Li /$n$ e ) LCFS < 0.05 is possible in a case with 90 MW m −2 unmitigated heat flux in NSTX-U. Low heat flux and low upstream concentration was found with a variety of combinations of divertor geometries, target recycling coefficients, upstream plasma parameters, lithium evaporation locations and deuterium fueling locations, with variations in performance found for each design choice. However, the most universal uncertainty of SOLPS-ITER simulations has until now remained unaddressed systematically, namely the cross-field anomalous particle and heat diffusivities. This article aims to bound the uncertainty in lithium concentration prediction as a result of the assumed deuterium cross-field transport and recycling. For the simulations presented here, a factor of 2.1 increase in the upstream lithium density prediction across a factor of four decrease to the assumed deuterium radial particle diffusivity is found. This result is compared across different assumed deuterium recycling coefficients, known to reduce with lithium injection. Upstream lithium density is found to vary by a factor of 2.4 across a feasible range of recycling coefficients at similar $n$$^{OMP,sep}_{e}$.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Longitudinal coherence and short-term wind speed prediction based on a nacelle-mounted Doppler lidar

The spatial structure of turbulence in atmospheric boundary layer flows is highly relevant to wind energy. In particular, wind turbine control strategies based on inflow preview measurements require knowledge of the longitudinal evolution of turbulent flow as it approaches the rotor. These upstream measurements are usually obtained with nacelle-mounted wind lidars. In contrast to traditional in situ anemometry, lidars collect measurements within a probe volume which varies in size depending on the technology of the commercial system being used. Here, we address two issues related to the use of wind lidar to measure the incoming flow to a wind turbine: (i) whether existing longitudinal coherence models can be used to predict flow at the rotor, based on measurements performed at a distance away from the rotor; and (ii) what effect probe-volume averaging has on the inflow predictions. These two questions are critical to the design and implementation of robust wind turbine control strategies. To address these questions, we perform field measurements and large-eddy simulations to determine which incoming flow structures can be readily predicted with existing coherence models, and which require additional corrections to account for lidar volumetric averaging effects. Results reveal that the wind turbine induction zone has a negligible impact on the longitudinal coherence and first-order turbulence quantities, such as the standard deviation of velocity fluctuations. However, the phase of the signal, from which advection time periods of the turbulent structures are derived, is affected by the rotor blockage effect.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Seasonal variability and predictability of monsoon precipitation in Southern Africa

Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key in predicting monsoon precipitation with a zero to five-month lead. Seasonal forecasting systems accurately represent the interplay of the three forcings but show varying skills in representing their teleconnection over SA. This makes them less effective at predicting monsoon precipitation than the empirical model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An efficient numerical model for predicting residual stress and strain in parts manufactured by laser powder bed fusion

Abstract Computational modeling of additively manufactured structures plays an increasingly important role in product design and optimization. For laser powder bed fusion processes, the accurate modeling of stress and distortion requires large amount of computational cost due to very localized heat input and evolving complex geometries. The current study takes advantage of a graphics processing unit accelerated explicit finite element analysis code and approximated heat conduction analysis to predict the macroscopic thermo-mechanical behavior in laser selective melting. Adjacent layers and tracks were lumped to reduce the number of time steps and elements in the finite element model. The effects of track and layer grouping on prediction accuracy and solution efficiency are investigated to provide a guidance for a cost-effective simulation. Thin-wall builds from Inconel alloy 625 (IN625) powders were simulated by applying the developed modeling approach to get the detailed residual stress and distortion at a computational speed 50 times higher than conventional approach. Under repeated heating and cooling cycles, a high tensile stress was produced near surfaces of a build due to a larger shrinkage on surface than that in central area. It is also shown that horizontal stresses concentrate near the root and top layers of the IN625 build. The predicted residual elastic strain distribution was validated by the experimental measurement using x-ray synchrotron diffraction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗