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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Enabling elliptically polarized high harmonic generation with short cross polarized laser pulses

Abstract Enabling elliptically polarized high-order harmonics overcomes a historical limitation in the generation of this highly nonlinear process in atomic, molecular and optical physics with applications in other branches. Here, we shed new light on a controversy between experimental observations and theoretical predictions on the possibility to generate harmonics with large ellipticity using two bichromatic laser pulses which are linearly polarized in orthogonal directions. Results of numerical calculations confirm the previous experimental data that in short laser pulses even harmonics with large ellipticity can be obtained for the interaction of such cross-polarized laser pulses with atoms initially in a s - or p -state, while odd harmonics have low ellipticity. The amount of the ellipticity can be controlled via the relative carrier-envelope phase of the pulses, their intensity ratio and the duration of the pulses.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

New approach to QCD final-state evolution in processes with massive partons

We present an algorithm for massive parton evolution which is based on the differentially accurate simulation of soft-gluon radiation by means of a nontrivial azimuthal angle dependence of the splitting functions. The kinematics mapping is chosen such as to reflect the symmetry of the final state in soft-gluon radiation and collinear splitting processes. We compute the counterterms needed for a fully differential next-to-leading order matching and discuss the analytic structure of the parton shower in the next-to-leading logarithmic limit. We implement the new algorithm in the numerical code Alaric and present a first comparison to experimental data. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Operando XPS in reactive plasmas: The importance of the wall reactions

In this article, advancements in differential pumping and electron optics over the past few decades have enabled x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) measurements at (near-)ambient pressures, bridging the pressure gap for characterizing realistic sample chemistries. Recently, we have demonstrated the capabilities of an ambient pressure XPS setup for in situ plasma environment measurements, allowing plasma-surface interactions to be studied in operando rather than using the traditional before-and-after analysis approach. This new “plasma-XPS” technique facilitates the identification of reaction intermediates critical for understanding plasma-assisted surface processes relevant to semiconductor nanomanufacturing, such as physical vapor deposition, etching, atomic layer deposition, and many other plasma applications. In this paper, we apply the plasma-XPS approach to monitor real-time surface chemical changes on a model Ag(111) single crystal exposed to oxidizing and reducing plasmas. We correlate surface-sensitive data with concurrent gas-phase XPS measurements and residual gas mass-spectrum analysis of species generated during plasma exposure, highlighting the significant role of plasma-induced chamber wall reactions. Ultimately, we demonstrate that plasma-XPS provides comprehensive insights into both surface and gas-phase chemistry, establishing it as a versatile and dynamic characterization tool with broad applications in microelectronics research. Finally, we outline potential enhancements and future metrology directions to advance plasma-XPS investigations further.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Few-Shot Learning Enables Population-Scale Analysis of Leaf Traits in Populus trichocarpa

Plant phenotyping is typically a time-consuming and expensive endeavor, requiring large groups of researchers to meticulously measure biologically relevant plant traits, and is the main bottleneck in understanding plant adaptation and the genetic architecture underlying complex traits at population scale. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging few-shot learning with convolutional neural networks to segment the leaf body and visible venation of 2,906 Populus trichocarpa leaf images obtained in the field. In contrast to previous methods, our approach (a) does not require experimental or image preprocessing, (b) uses the raw RGB images at full resolution, and (c) requires very few samples for training (e.g., just 8 images for vein segmentation). Traits relating to leaf morphology and vein topology are extracted from the resulting segmentations using traditional open-source image-processing tools, validated using real-world physical measurements, and used to conduct a genome-wide association study to identify genes controlling the traits. In this way, the current work is designed to provide the plant phenotyping community with (a) methods for fast and accurate image-based feature extraction that require minimal training data and (b) a new population-scale dataset, including 68 different leaf phenotypes, for domain scientists and machine learning researchers. All of the few-shot learning code, data, and results are made publicly available.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Perspectives on Microfluidics for the Study of Asphaltenes in Upstream Hydrocarbon Production: A Minireview

The utilization of microfluidics has generated deep insights into asphaltene precipitation mechanisms and oil–water emulsion stabilization. Agglomeration and precipitation of asphaltenes can cause flow assurance problems during the extraction and transportation of crude oil. Change in temperature, pressure, reservoir conditions, and solvents can change the local environment, leading to asphaltene precipitation. Understanding asphaltene properties and precipitation pathways becomes critical in devising mitigation methods, demulsifiers, and suitable conditions during hydrocarbon processing. Microfluidics has helped in high throughput measurement studies, understanding critical processing conditions, fast demulsifier screening, and the effect of solvent concentration on deposition, generating useful information for utilization at the point of resource extraction facilitating improved resource management. It has become possible to capture the porous, complex nature of reservoir formations and the interaction of chemicals during precipitation through integrated analytics and visualization studies available only through microfluidics. The use of droplet microfluidics, with optical microscopy and high-speed imaging to study the oil–water interface, has resulted in greater understanding of the role of asphaltenes in interfacial properties and emulsion stabilization. Here, this minireview highlights the crucial aspects of microfluidics that have been used to understand physicochemical behavior and dynamics of asphaltene deposition. Some of the unique devices have been presented focusing on the key elements of microfluidics design, fabrication, and analysis, as the insight obtained from microfluidics strongly depends on the device design and the controllability of the experimental parameters. Successful implementation of microfluidics for efficient and controlled experiments, short analysis time scales and rapid screening, and generation of high-quality, reliable data that convey asphaltene deposition issues and interface behavior in emulsions shows the importance of microsystems for advancing knowledge in hydrocarbon production and processing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Terrestrial laser scanning data (Levels 0 and 1) from Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project sites, Knoxville, Tennessee, Jul 2024 - Jul 2025

This data package contains data from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at five urban park sites in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. All parks include open-grown and/or closed-canopy trees and mixed nearby land use. These study sites were established as part of the Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project, which has an overall goal of better understanding how hydrobiogeochemical cycling is altered within the human environment. These five sites represent a gradient of urbanization, and were instrumented to understand hydrological and biogeochemical cycling (e.g., soil moisture, soil physical properties and biogeochemistry, tree transpiration, species type). The TLS data archived here were collected to provide detailed, three-dimensional information about forest structure. Specifically, data were collected to allow tree- and stand-level characterization of woody structure and leaf area. TLS scans were placed to capture the area around trees with sap flow sensors, and as much of a 50 m radius area around the meteorological station as possible given site property limits. Derived products will allow upscaling of water content and transpiration data. This data package contains the following data: - High-level files document further details of the campaign and data package: 1_CampaignSummary.csv provides details about the campaign and study site, 2_ScanAreasDetail.csv provides details about each separate scan area (groups of scans post-processed into a single point cloud), 3_TerrestrialLidarSensor.csv provides further technical details about the Riegl VZ-400i TLS sensor, TLS_CSV_dd.csv is a CSV Data Dictionary providing information about the fields in CSV files following the ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting Format, TLS_flmd.csv is a File Level Metadata file providing information about each file in the data package following the ESS-DIVE File Level Metadata Reporting Format, and README.txt is a text file describing the overall project and file structure. - Level 0 data are the raw data (.PROJ folders) as recorded by the Riegl VZ-400i TLS instrument before scan co-registration and post-processing with the Riegl's proprietary RiSCAN PRO software, which requires a license. - Level 1 data contain post-processed, co-registered data from each scan area. The "PointClouds" folder for each scan area contains a .las file with 1 cm resolution point cloud data exported from RiSCAN PRO. These are the main files likely to be of interest to most users and can be further processed with any software capable of manipulating .las files (e.g. Python, R CloudCompare). The "Project Information" folder contains log files from post-processing in RiSCAN PRO that may be of interest to users who want to see detailed records of post-processing, including all PDF reports generated by RiSCAN PRO. The "ScanPositions" folder contains information about the final position of all TLS scans, after post-processing, in multiple formats. The file ScanPositions_*.csv provides final geo-referenced scan positions, and the file SOP_backup_*.csv can be used in RiSCAN PRO to restore the co-registered scan positions if users wish to re-process raw data (Level 0 .PROJ folders) with RiSCAN PRO software (e.g., subsample to a different resolution, exclude a certain scan position, or apply different filters on reflectance or deviation values) without redoing time-consuming co-registration steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fission In R-process Elements (FY20 Q2 Quarterly Report)

The goal of the FIRE topical collaboration in nuclear theory is to determine the astrophysical conditions of the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which is responsible for the formation of heavy elements. This will be achieved by including in r-process simulations the most advanced models of fission (spontaneous, neutron-induced, β-delayed) that have been developed at LLNL and LANL. The collaboration is composed of LLNL (lead) and LANL for fission work, BNL for nuclear data management, and the university of Notre Dame and North Carolina State University for r-process simulations. Under DOE/NNSA agreement, both universities receive funds from DOE Office of Science, while national laboratories receive funds directly from NA221.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fission In R-process Elements (Q4 FY2020 Quarterly Report)

The goal of the FIRE topical collaboration in nuclear theory is to determine the astrophysical conditions of the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which is responsible for the formation of heavy elements. This will be achieved by including in r-process simulations the most advanced models of fission (spontaneous, neutron-induced, β-delayed) that have been developed at LLNL and LANL. The collaboration is composed of LLNL (lead) and LANL for fission work, BNL for nuclear data management, and the university of Notre Dame and North Carolina State University for r-process simulations. Under DOE/NNSA agreement, both universities receive funds from DOE Office of Science, while national laboratories receive funds directly from NA221.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fission In R-process Elements (Q1 FY2021)

The goal of the FIRE topical collaboration in nuclear theory is to determine the astrophysical conditions of the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which is responsible for the formation of heavy elements. This will be achieved by including in r-process simulations the most advanced models of fission (spontaneous, neutron-induced, β-delayed) that have been developed at LLNL and LANL. The collaboration is composed of LLNL (lead) and LANL for fission work, BNL for nuclear data management, and the university of Notre Dame and North Carolina State University for r-process simulations. Under DOE/NNSA agreement, both universities receive funds from DOE Office of Science, while national laboratories receive funds directly from NA221

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fission In R-Process Elements

The goal of the FIRE topical collaboration in nuclear theory is to determine the astrophysical conditions of the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which is responsible for the formation of heavy elements. This will be achieved by including in r-process simulations the most advanced models of fission (spontaneous, neutron-induced, β-delayed) that have been developed at LLNL and LANL. The collaboration is composed of LLNL (lead) and LANL for fission work, BNL for nuclear data management, and the university of Notre Dame and North Carolina State University for r-process simulations. Under DOE/NNSA agreement, both universities receive funds from DOE Office of Science, while national laboratories receive funds directly from NA221.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fission In R-Process Elements

The goal of the FIRE topical collaboration in nuclear theory was to determine the astrophysical conditions of the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which is responsible for the formation of heavy elements. This was be achieved by including in r-process simulations the most advanced models of fission (spontaneous, neutron-induced, β-delayed) that have been developed at LLNL and LANL. The collaboration was composed of LLNL (lead) and LANL for fission work, BNL for nuclear data management, and the university of Notre Dame and North Carolina State University for r-process simulations. Under DOE/NNSA agreement, both universities received funds from DOE Office of Science, while national laboratories receive funds directly from NA221.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fission In R-process Elements (FIRE) - Quarterly Report (Q2FY22)

The goal of the FIRE topical collaboration in nuclear theory was to determine the astrophysical conditions of the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which is responsible for the formation of heavy elements. This was be achieved by including in r-process simulations the most advanced models of fission (spontaneous, neutron-induced, β-delayed) that have been developed at LLNL and LANL. The collaboration was composed of LLNL (lead) and LANL for fission work, BNL for nuclear data management, and the university of Notre Dame and North Carolina State University for r-process simulations. Under DOE/NNSA agreement, both universities received funds from DOE Office of Science, while national laboratories receive funds directly from NA221.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fission In R-process Elements (FIRE) (NA-22 Quarterly Report, Q4FY22)

The goal of the FIRE topical collaboration in nuclear theory was to determine the astrophysical conditions of the rapid neutron capture process (r-process), which is responsible for the formation of heavy elements. This was be achieved by including in r-process simulations the most advanced models of fission (spontaneous, neutron-induced, β-delayed) that have been developed at LLNL and LANL. The collaboration was composed of LLNL (lead) and LANL for fission work, BNL for nuclear data management, and the university of Notre Dame and North Carolina State University for r-process simulations. Under DOE/NNSA agreement, both universities received funds from DOE Office of Science, while national laboratories receive funds directly from NA221.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Uncertain quantum computing futures and potential energy and physical resource impacts at scale

Considerable attention has recently focused on the vast energy and water demands of supercomputing, namely large-scale data centers that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), one of the great disruptors of contemporary society. Looking ahead some years from now, quantum computing is poised to disrupt established computing paradigms once again. Scientists and engineers are now working intensely to bring this century-old dream of physicists to fruition. Yet, as quantum computers begin to be integrated with classical supercomputing architectures, the implications for energy and physical resource use also need to be understood, especially how they compare to today’s AI data centers. These impacts have not yet been quantified by the research community – a notable gap in the literature, even if commercial-scale deployment of Quantum-Accelerated Computing Infrastructure (QuACI) is not expected for a few more years. This study is the first to conduct such an assessment. Using publicly available information from academic sources and private industry, we characterize multiple configurations of superconducting qubit-based, fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) that could plausibly be deployed at scale in the 2030s and into the 2040s. By parameterizing these FTQC systems at a process level, we conduct a prospective scenario analysis to quantify their energy and physical resource needs. While these estimates are uncertain, given the current state of quantum technologies and their unknown future trajectories, important insights can already be drawn. One key finding is that while the electricity needs for a fleet of FTQCs are within the bounds of previous modeling studies that have explored high electricity demand futures, the needs for certain physical resources, namely water and helium-3, could pose bottlenecks to QuACI scale-up.

Computing↗

A Dataset of CFD Simulated Industrial Furnace Images for Conditional Automatic Generation with GANs

The steel industry is constantly looking for ways to automate processes and improve efficiency. A standard practice in industry is to simulate how complex systems will operate before they are actually used. Some complex systems, including steel industry processes such as blast furnaces, require complex physics-based simulations utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD). These CFD physics-based simulations are very accurate but can take significant time and computational resources to process, resulting in challenges for the implementation of the models in real-world operational environments. In recent years, deep learning (DL) has been considered as a substitute for these CFD models. DL models can be trained on validated CFD simulation data and then used for industrial process inference. Previous DL-based solutions have made great contributions for industrial automation but are currently missing the additional visualization component that CFD simulations also provide. In this paper, we propose a dataset for simple DL generative approaches that can help to address this issue. The dataset and methodology under development to approach this prediction are discussed in this work.

Calix, Ricardo↗

Seasonal enhancement of the viral shunt catalyzes a subsurface oxygen maximum in the Sargasso Sea

Subsurface oxygen maxima (SOMs) occur directly beneath the mixed layer of stratified water columns across oligotrophic open ocean basins and have been associated with physical transport processes and localized increases in phytoplankton net primary productivity (NPP). We explore the hypothesis that viral lysis (i.e., the ‘viral shunt’) increases nutrient recycling and enhances NPP, supporting SOM formation in stratified water columns, focusing on a recurring SOM at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) in the Sargasso Sea. Reanalysis of historical BATS data showed enhanced Prochlorococcus and virus-like particle abundances associated with SOMs. Instances of high rates of primary and secondary production observed with oxygen supersaturation further implicate a biological mechanism for SOM formation. Leveraging metatranscriptomes, metaviromes, and polony-based data collected during a Lagrangian cruise (October 2019), we link the viral shunt to SOMs, including evidence of elevated cyanophage abundance and infection of Prochlorococcus, and transcriptomic evidence of increased organic matter uptake (i.e., catabolic activity) by copiotrophic bacteria. Cruise data also showed Prochlorococcus nitrogen metabolism transcripts consistent with increased responsiveness to bacterial remineralization. These findings illustrate the biogeochemical impacts of enhanced viral lysis in marine systems, including the potential role of the viral shunt in facilitating SOM formation in the oligotrophic oceans.

Gilbert, Naomi E. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, ↗

Near real-time streaming analysis of big fusion data

Experiments on fusion plasmas produce high-dimensional data time series with ever-increasing magnitude and velocity, but turn-around times for analysis of this data have not kept up. For example, many data analysis tasks are often performed in a manual, ad-hoc manner some time after an experiment. In this article, we introduce the Delta framework that facilitates near real-time streaming analysis of big and fast fusion data. By streaming measurement data from fusion experiments to a high-performance compute center, Delta allows computationally expensive data analysis tasks to be performed in between plasma pulses. This article describes the modular and expandable software architecture of Delta and presents performance benchmarks of individual components as well as of an example workflow. Focusing on a streaming analysis workflow where electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEi) data is measured at KSTAR on the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center's (NERSC's) supercomputer we routinely observe data transfer rates of about 4 Gigabit per second. In NERSC, a demanding turbulence analysis workflow effectively utilizes multiple nodes and graphical processing units and executes them in under 5 min. We further discuss how Delta uses modern database systems and container orchestration services to provide web-based real-time data visualization. For the case of ECEi data we demonstrate how data visualizations can be augmented with outputs from machine learning models. Here, by providing session leaders and physics operators, results of higher-order data analysis using live visualizations may make more informed decisions on how to configure the machine for the next shot.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗