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Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗

The application of flow competence evaluations to the assessment of flood-flow velocities and stresses

The concept of flow competence is generally employed to evaluate the velocities, discharges, and bottom stresses of river floods inferred from the size of the largest sediment particles transported. Flow competence has become an important tool for evaluating the hydraulics of exceptional floods on Earth, including those which eroded the Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington, and has potential for similar evaluations of the floods which carved the outflow channels on Mars. For the most part, flow-competence evaluations were empirical, based on data compiled from a variety of sources including major terrestrial floods caused by natural processes or dam failures. Such flow-competence relationships would appear to provide a straight-forward assessment of flood-flow stresses and velocities based on the maximum size of gravel and boulders transported. However, a re-examination of the data base and comparisons with measurements of selective entrainment and transport of gravel in rivers open to question such evaluations. Analyses of the forces acting on the grain during entrainment by pivoting, rolling, or sliding, an approach which focuses more on the physical processes than the purely empirical relationships can be demonstrated. These derived equations require further testing by flume and field measurements before being applied to flow-competence evaluations. Such tests are now underway.

Komar, Paul D.↗

Contra-Rotating Open Rotor Tone Noise Prediction

Reliable prediction of contra-rotating open rotor (CROR) noise is an essential element of any strategy for the development of low-noise open rotor propulsion systems that can meet both the community noise regulations and cabin noise limits. Since CROR noise spectra exhibit a preponderance of tones, significant efforts have been directed towards predicting their tone content. To that end, there has been an ongoing effort at NASA to assess various in-house open rotor tone noise prediction tools using a benchmark CROR blade set for which significant aerodynamic and acoustic data have been acquired in wind tunnel tests. In the work presented here, the focus is on the nearfield noise of the benchmark open rotor blade set at the cruise condition. Using an analytical CROR tone noise model with input from high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, tone noise spectra have been predicted and compared with the experimental data. Comparisons indicate that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the data, especially for the dominant tones and for the overall sound pressure level of tones. The results also indicate that, whereas the individual rotor tones are well predicted by the combination of the thickness and loading sources, for the interaction tones it is essential that the quadrupole source is also included in the analysis.

Propeller Noise↗

EVA Wiki - Transforming Knowledge Management for EVA Flight Controllers and Instructors

The EVA Wiki was recently implemented as the primary knowledge database to retain critical knowledge and skills in the EVA Operations group at NASA's Johnson Space Center by ensuring that information is recorded in a common, easy to search repository. Prior to the EVA Wiki, information required for EVA flight controllers and instructors was scattered across different sources, including multiple file share directories, SharePoint, individual computers, and paper archives. Many documents were outdated, and data was often difficult to find and distribute. In 2011, a team recognized that these knowledge management problems could be solved by creating an EVA Wiki using MediaWiki, a free and open-source software developed by the Wikimedia Foundation. The EVA Wiki developed into an EVA-specific Wikipedia on an internal NASA server. While the technical implementation of the wiki had many challenges, one of the biggest hurdles came from a cultural shift. Like many enterprise organizations, the EVA Operations group was accustomed to hierarchical data structures and individually-owned documents. Instead of sorting files into various folders, the wiki searches content. Rather than having a single document owner, the wiki harmonized the efforts of many contributors and established an automated revision controlled system. As the group adapted to the wiki, the usefulness of this single portal for information became apparent. It transformed into a useful data mining tool for EVA flight controllers and instructors, as well as hundreds of others that support the EVA. Program managers, engineers, astronauts, flight directors, and flight controllers in differing disciplines now have an easier-to-use, searchable system to find EVA data. This paper presents the benefits the EVA Wiki has brought to NASA's EVA community, as well as the cultural challenges it had to overcome.

Johnston, Stephanie S.↗

EVA Wiki - Transforming Knowledge Management for EVA Flight Controllers and Instructors

The EVA Wiki was recently implemented as the primary knowledge database to retain critical knowledge and skills in the EVA Operations group at NASA's Johnson Space Center by ensuring that information is recorded in a common, easy to search repository. Prior to the EVA Wiki, information required for EVA flight controllers and instructors was scattered across different sources, including multiple file share directories, SharePoint, individual computers, and paper archives. Many documents were outdated, and data was often difficult to find and distribute. In 2011, a team recognized that these knowledge management problems could be solved by creating an EVA Wiki using MediaWiki, a free and open-source software developed by the Wikimedia Foundation. The EVA Wiki developed into an EVA-specific Wikipedia on an internal NASA server. While the technical implementation of the wiki had many challenges, one of the biggest hurdles came from a cultural shift. Like many enterprise organizations, the EVA Operations group was accustomed to hierarchical data structures and individually-owned documents. Instead of sorting files into various folders, the wiki searches content. Rather than having a single document owner, the wiki harmonized the efforts of many contributors and established an automated revision controlled system. As the group adapted to the wiki, the usefulness of this single portal for information became apparent. It transformed into a useful data mining tool for EVA flight controllers and instructors, as well as hundreds of others that support EVA. Program managers, engineers, astronauts, flight directors, and flight controllers in differing disciplines now have an easier-to-use, searchable system to find EVA data. This paper presents the benefits the EVA Wiki has brought to NASA's EVA community, as well as the cultural challenges it had to overcome.

Johnston, Stephanie S.↗

Mercury-T: A New Code to Study Tidally Evolving Multi-Planet Systems. Applications to Kepler-62

A large proportion of observed planetary systems contain several planets in a compact orbital configuration, and often harbor at least one close-in object. These systems are then most likely tidally evolving. We investigate how the effects of planet-planet interactions influence the tidal evolution of planets. We introduce for that purpose a new open-source addition to the Mercury N-body code, Mercury-T, which takes into account tides, general relativity and the effect of rotation-induced flattening in order to simulate the dynamical and tidal evolution of multi-planet systems. It uses a standard equilibrium tidal model, the constant time lag model. Besides, the evolution of the radius of several host bodies has been implemented (brown dwarfs, M-dwarfs of mass 0:1 M(sub ⨀), Sun-like stars, Jupiter). We validate the new code by comparing its output for one-planet systems to the secular equations results. We find that this code does respect the conservation of total angular momentum. We applied this new tool to the planetary system Kepler-62. We find that tides influence the stability of the system in some cases. We also show that while the four inner planets of the systems are likely to have slow rotation rates and small obliquities, the fifth planet could have a fast rotation rate and a high obliquity. This means that the two habitable zone planets of this system, Kepler-62e ad f are likely to have very different climate features, and this of course would influence their potential at hosting surface liquid water..

Dynamical evolution and stability↗

EVA Wiki - Transforming Knowledge Management for EVA Flight Controllers and Instructors

The EVA (Extravehicular Activity) Wiki was recently implemented as the primary knowledge database to retain critical knowledge and skills in the EVA Operations group at NASA's Johnson Space Center by ensuring that information is recorded in a common, searchable repository. Prior to the EVA Wiki, information required for EVA flight controllers and instructors was scattered across different sources, including multiple file share directories, SharePoint, individual computers, and paper archives. Many documents were outdated, and data was often difficult to find and distribute. In 2011, a team recognized that these knowledge management problems could be solved by creating an EVA Wiki using MediaWiki, a free and open-source software developed by the Wikimedia Foundation. The EVA Wiki developed into an EVA-specific Wikipedia on an internal NASA server. While the technical implementation of the wiki had many challenges, the one of the biggest hurdles came from a cultural shift. Like many enterprise organizations, the EVA Operations group was accustomed to hierarchical data structures and individually-owned documents. Instead of sorting files into various folders, the wiki searches content. Rather than having a single document owner, the wiki harmonized the efforts of many contributors and established an automated revision control system. As the group adapted to the wiki, the usefulness of this single portal for information became apparent. It transformed into a useful data mining tool for EVA flight controllers and instructors, and also for hundreds of other NASA and contract employees. Program managers, engineers, astronauts, flight directors, and flight controllers in differing disciplines now have an easier-to-use, searchable system to find EVA data. This paper presents the benefits the EVA Wiki has brought to NASA's EVA community, as well as the cultural challenges it had to overcome.

Johnston, Stephanie↗

Toward a high-fidelity tritium transport modeling for retention and permeation experiments

We report Tritium Migration Analysis Program version 8 (TMAP8), the latest version of TMAP, was developed within the framework of the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Created at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), MOOSE is an open-source, dimension-agnostic, fully coupled, and fully implicit multiphysics platform featuring massively parallel computation capabilities. Using TMAP8, tritium transport in a divertor monoblock was analyzed to elucidate the effects of pulsed operation (up to fifty 1,600 s plasma discharge and cool-down cycles) on the tritium in-vessel inventory source term and ex-vessel release term (i.e., tritium retention and permeation) for safety analysis. With its built-in Message Passing Interface capability, TMAP8 can, in under 2 h, simulate tritium transport in three different layered materials (i.e., tungsten, copper, and copper-chromium-zirconium alloy) in 2D geometry, using a single device/computer with 10 cores. The MOOSE-based TMAP8 code can leverage other MOOSE tools developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program to perform tritium and thermal transport in complex geometries and multiphysics environments. And via its massively parallel computation, MOOSE will enable the fusion pilot plant designers to conduct high-fidelity multiphysics modeling for the design of the divertor and blanket systems as well as for the safety analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Even Higher-Level Synthesis: An Exploration of AI Hardware Accelerators using HLS4ML

With the rise of artificial intelligence, the popularization of deep learning, and a constantly evolving industry, the demand for flexible and efficient tools has never been greater. As algorithms grow more complex, their runtime and energy consumption increase exponentially. Customized hardware accelerators, long used for specific mathematical operations, remain essential for managing modern applications' computational and power demands. Hardware accelerators can speed up complex computations by orders of magnitude, but their manual design and verification processes are often challenging and time-consuming. High-Level Synthesis (HLS) provides a solution by transforming high-level algorithm descriptions, typically written in C++ or SystemC, into synthesizable RTL suitable for hardware implementation. This approach reduces development time for RTL engineers while offering flexibility beyond what traditional handwritten RTL can provide. We extended this capability to the machine-learning domain with the open-source framework hls4ml, which allows neural networks trained in Python frameworks like Tensorflow or PyTorch to be synthesized into efficient hardware representations for the traditional FPGA and ASIC flows. This breakthrough addresses the growing need for reduced design turnaround and easy verification of ML hardware accelerators with low latency and power efficiency constraints. During this tutorial, we will demonstrate how Python complements HLS by simplifying the ML design process, bridging the gap between software and hardware development. Attendees will explore how we translate neural networks modeled in Python into fixed-point C++ models suitable for HLS workflows. We will dive into strategies like Value-Range Analysis and Quantization-Aware Training, which optimize these designs for deployment and evaluate their accuracy, power consumption, and energy efficiency. To exemplify these concepts, experts from Fermilab will share their experiences applying this technology to high-energy physics experiments, where real-time, low-latency processing is critical. Over the years, Fermilab engineers have demonstrated how deep neural networks, optimized for hardware using hls4ml, can meet the stringent requirements of trigger systems at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. These systems rely on rapid decision-making to process immense data volumes while retaining only the most relevant events for further analysis. The application of hls4ml has also been extended to innovative technologies like smart pixel arrays. These smart pixels integrate ML inference capabilities directly into sensor devices, enabling localized data processing at the pixel level. This approach drastically reduces the need to transmit raw data to external processing units, significantly decreasing power consumption and latency. By embedding neural networks within the pixel architecture, the smart pixels can identify and prioritize relevant data in real time, providing a highly efficient solution for edge computing in scenarios such as particle detectors and imaging systems. Fermilab's work highlights the potential of hardware-accelerated ML in scenarios where both speed and power efficiency are mission-critical. Through this tutorial, attendees will gain valuable insights into the challenges and solutions of deploying ML in hardware. Understanding how HLS and hls4ml streamline the development of neural network-based hardware accelerators is fundamental for the industry's future. Participants will learn how these technologies are shaping the future of AI and scientific computing.

Di Guglielmo, Giuseppe [Fermilab]↗

Connecting Users and Applications with Po.daac Hosted GHRSST Data

The 80+ GHRSST public datasets represent a rich resource for sea surface temperature research and applications given their time series length, resolution, spatial coverage, varying measurement types and processing levels, and availability in the full spectrum of PO.DAAC tools and services ecosystem. The PO.DAAC has created a publicly accessible recipe suite for the user community to perform straightforward yet powerful computations on GHRSST data using python recipes, Jupyter notebooks, R, Matlab, and the NCO programming language. These recipes include numerical computations for regional and global SST trends, anomaly derivations, EOF analysis, climate signal reproduction, and ocean phenology. For example, one recipe reproduces a famous SST based warming figure from the Fourth National Climate Assessment (USA) while another focuses on quantifying the regional changes in ocean SST phenology. Most are python-based while some contain hybrid calls and leverage the NCO programming interface too. All are available on the PO.DAAC user forum (https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/forum/) and/or via the open source NASA GitHub repository (https://github.com/nasa/podaac_tools_and_services). Several are available in the Jupyter notebook framework including podaacypy (https://github.com/nasa/podaacpy), a recipe for GHRSST granule metadata discovery and application, and more recently a Jupyter notebook developed to support data analysis and visualization of a cloud-based Zarr formatted Level 4 MUR dataset in the AWS Open Data Registry. Throughout the summer of 2020, the PO.DAAC intends to add and migrate more of its numerical recipes to the Jupyter notebook framework and publish them on its open source GitHub repository.

Gentemann, Chelle↗

Distributing User Code with the CernVM FileSystem

The CernVM FileSystem (CVMFS) is widely used in High Throughput Computing to efficiently distributed experiment code. However, the standard CVMFS publishing tools are designed for a small group of people from each experiment to maintain common software, and the tools are not a good fit for publishing software from numerous users in each experiment. As a result, most user code, such as code to do specific physics analyses, is still sent with every job to the place the job is run. That process is relatively inefficient, especially when the user code is large. To overcome these limitations, we have built a CVMFS user code publication system. This publication system enables users to still submit their code with their jobs but the code is distributed and accessed through the standard CVMFS infrastructure. The user code is automatically deleted from CVMFS after a period of no use. Most of the software for the system is available as a single self-contained open source rpm called cvmfs-user-pub and is available for other deployments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design, Development and Testing Plan for Energy Efficiency Algorithms Related to Building-Integrated Cooling, Heating, and Power Systems

Building-integrated cooling, heating and power (CHP) systems are more efficient than conventional systems at providing local power and thermal energy, and favorable fuel prices are bound to spur their increased adoption. It is estimated that the total CHP technical potential in the commercial building sector is approximately 76 GW, but only a small fraction of it is actually deployed. Advanced control and monitoring systems that realize the full potential of these CHP systems can transform this capacity into an asset for both the owner and the grid and also accelerate the adoption of these systems in the building sector. However, to realize the full benefit of the CHP systems, we must ensure persistence of energy efficient operations. It has been demonstrated by several studies that as much as 30% of building energy use is wasted. Much of the waste results from the inability to anticipate load variations (design day vs. non-design day operations; diurnal variation of loads), identify improper operation, and efficiently operate, control and maintain building systems. Moreover, many buildings, even those with adequate control infrastructure, lack knowledgeable staff to operate and maintain energy systems. Operators of buildings with CHP systems will constantly need to make tradeoffs (economic dispatch) between onsite power generation and purchasing power, between onsite heat production from distributed generation versus heating/cooling from conventional systems, and different passive and active load management measures. Much of the inefficiency in the current building operations can be eliminated by use of automated performance monitoring (PM), real-time commissioning verification (CxV) and automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools. Automation can help system operators make intelligent decisions. Remote and continuous monitoring of system conditions and performance will enable better management and integration of CHP with existing building systems. Continuous PM, real-time CxV and AFDD could alleviate burdens for operations staff, enhance operations and maintenance (O&M), and improve reliability of building and CHP systems. To address the O&M challenges and to provide a means to maximize the rate-of-return of building-integrated CHP systems, the Building Technologies Office (BTO) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) initiated a project to design, develop, and field test a VOLTTRON™-based supervisory controller and associated open-source algorithms. These algorithms will ensure real-time optimal operation of a building-integrated CHP system, support electric grid reliability, and lead to achieving the goal of a clean, efficient, reliable and affordable next-generation integrated energy systems. This report lists the components for which PM, real-time CxV and AFDD algorithms will be developed, how the algorithms will be tested, and metrics that will be used to validate the algorithms and easy of deployment. Deployment of these algorithms in the field will result in savings reduction in energy consumption of between 10% and 20%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Implementation Plan for Combined Heat and Power Systems VOLTTRON Controller: Performance Monitoring and Real-Time Commissioning Algorithm Verification

Building-integrated cooling, heating, and power (CHP) systems are more efficient than conventional systems at providing local power and thermal energy, and favorable fuel prices are bound to spur their increased adoption. However, to realize the full benefit of the CHP systems, we must ensure persistence of energy efficient operations. Much of the inefficiency in the current building operations can be eliminated by use of automated performance monitoring (PM), real-time commissioning verification (CxV) and automated fault detection and diagnostic (AFDD) tools. Automation can help system operators make intelligent decisions. Remote and continuous monitoring of system conditions and performance will enable better management and integration of CHP with existing building systems. Continuous PM, real-time CxV, and AFDD could alleviate burdens for operations staff, enhance operations and maintenance (O&M), and improve reliability of building and CHP systems. To address the O&M challenges and to provide a means to maximize the rate-of-return of building-integrated CHP systems, the Building Technologies Office (BTO) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) initiated a project to design, develop, and field test a VOLTTRON™-based supervisory controller and associated open-source algorithms. These algorithms will ensure real-time optimal operation of a building-integrated CHP system, support electric grid reliability, and lead to achieving the goal of clean, efficient, reliable, and affordable next-generation integrated energy system. Previous report listed the components for which PM, real-time CxV, and AFDD algorithms will be developed, how the algorithms will be tested, and the metrics that will be used to validate the algorithms and their ease of deployment. Deployment of these algorithms in the field will result in a reduction in energy consumption of between 10% and 20% (for both CHP and conventional building systems). This report builds upon the previous report by detailing the process by which PNNL will implement performance monitoring and real-time commissioning algorithms for CHP systems in conjunction with the use of the VOLTTRON CHP economic dispatch agent in host facilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) MACHETE Simulation Model

Contact Graph Routing (CGR) for Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) space-based networks makes use of the predictable nature of node contacts to make real-time routing decisions given unpredictable traffic patterns. The contact graph will have been disseminated to all nodes before the start of route computation. CGR was designed for space-based networking environments where future contact plans are known or are independently computable (e.g., using known orbital dynamics). For each data item (known as a bundle in DTN), a node independently performs route selection by examining possible paths to the destination. Route computation could conceivably run thousands of times a second, so computational load is important. This work refers to the simulation software model of Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) for DTN Bundle Protocol in JPL's MACHETE simulation tool. The simulation model was used for performance analysis of CGR and led to several performance enhancements. The simulation model was used to demonstrate the improvements of ECGR over CGR as well as other routing methods in space network scenarios. ECGR moved to using earliest arrival time because it is a global monotonically increasing metric that guarantees the safety properties needed for the solution's correctness since route re-computation occurs at each node to accommodate unpredicted changes (e.g., traffic pattern, link quality). Furthermore, using earliest arrival time enabled the use of the standard Dijkstra algorithm for path selection. The Dijkstra algorithm for path selection has a well-known inexpensive computational cost. These enhancements have been integrated into the open source CGR implementation. The ECGR model is also useful for route metric experimentation and comparisons with other DTN routing protocols particularly when combined with MACHETE's space networking models and Delay Tolerant Link State Routing (DTLSR) model.

Segui, John S.↗

FREDA: A Web Application for the Processing, Analysis, and Visualization of Fourier‐Transform Mass Spectrometry Data

The high-resolution measurement capability of Fourier-transform mass spectrometry (FT-MS) has made it a necessity for exploring the molecular composition of complex organic mixtures, like soil, plant, aquatic, and petroleum samples. This demand has driven a need for informatics tools to explore and analyze FT-MS data in a robust and reproducible manner. FREDA is an interactive web application developed to enable spectrometrists to format, process, and explore their FT-MS data without the need for statistical programming expertise. FREDA was built to explore outputs from a molecular identification tool, like CoreMS, and provide a suite of methods to filter data, compute chemical properties of peaks, statistically compare samples and groups of samples, conduct exploratory data analysis, and download the results with a report detailing all steps conducted. To demonstrate the utility of FREDA, an example analysis was conducted using FT-MS data from a soil microbiology study of samples collected in two different soil depths at the Sphagnum bog forest north of Grand Rapids, Minnesota. Differences between the two depths are observed using Kendrick, Gibbs free energy, and van Krevelen plots. G-tests are used to quantify a significant difference between the groups. All analyses and plotting are conducted using only the FREDA application. FREDA is an open-source and readily available web application that allows users to explore and make statistically valid conclusions about their FT-MS data. The application is available online (https://map.emsl.pnnl.gov/app/freda) with a tutorial web series (https://youtu.be/k5HLE2kNSBY?si=yB6sGoyvzxrFf5MP) and freely accessible code on Github (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/FREDA).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Market optimization and technoeconomic analysis of hydrogen-electricity coproduction systems

Decarbonization efforts across North America, Europe, and beyond rely on variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, as well as alternative fuels, such as hydrogen, to support the sustainable energy transition. These advancements have prompted a need for more flexibility in the electric grid to complement non-dispatchable energy sources and increased demand from electrification. Integrated energy systems are well suited to provide this flexibility, but conventional technoeconomic modeling paradigms neglect the time-varying dynamic nature of the grid and thus undervalue resource flexibility. In this work, we develop a computational optimization framework for dynamic market-based technoeconomic comparison of integrated energy systems that coproduce low-carbon electricity and hydrogen (e.g., solid oxide fuel cells, solid oxide electrolysis) against technologies that only produce electricity (e.g., natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture) or only produce hydrogen. Our framework starts with rigorous physics-based process models, built in the open-source Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) modeling and optimization platform, for six energy process concepts. Using these rigorous models and a workflow to optimally design each technology, the framework is shown to be capable of evaluating new and emerging technologies in varying energy markets under a plethora of future scenarios (i.e., renewables penetration, carbon tax, etc.). Ultimately, our framework finds that solid oxide fuel cell-based coproduction systems achieve positive profits for 85% of the analyzed market scenarios. From these market optimization results, we use multivariate linear regression (R 2 values up to 0.99) to determine which electricity price statistics are most significant to predict the optimized annual profit of each system. The proposed framework provides a powerful tool for directly comparing flexible, multi-product energy process concepts to help discern optimal technology and integration options.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Fusion of Geothermal and InSAR Data with Machine Learning for Enhanced Deformation Forecasting at the Geysers

The Geysers geothermal field in California is experiencing land subsidence due to the seismic and geothermal activities taking place. This poses a risk not only to the underlying infrastructure but also to the groundwater level which would reduce the water availability for the local community. Because of this, it is crucial to monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring and adjust geothermal operations accordingly. In this study, we examine the correlation between the geothermal injection and production rates as well as the seismic activity in the area, and we show the high correlation between the injection rate and the number of earthquakes. This motivates the use of this data in a machine learning model that would predict future deformation maps. First, we build a model that uses interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images that have been processed and turned into a deformation time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package, and evaluate the performance against a linear baseline model. The model includes both convolutional neural network (CNN) layers as well as long short-term memory (LSTM) layers and is able to improve upon the baseline model based on a mean squared error metric. Then, after getting preprocessed, we incorporate the geothermal data by adding them as additional inputs to the model. This new model was able to outperform both the baseline and the previous version of the model that uses only InSAR data, motivating the use of machine learning models as well as geothermal data in assessing and predicting future deformation at The Geysers as part of hazard mitigation models which would then be used as fundamental tools for informed decision making when it comes to adjusting geothermal operations.

Yazbeck, Joe (ORCID:0000000302235260)↗

Recent Developments to the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) Software

Introduction The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software is an open source framework for image-based simulation, primarily used to determine effective properties based on material microstructure. PuMA was originally developed for the study of NASA thermal protection materials; however, many of the solvers in PuMA have applicability to a broad range of materials science applications. PuMA version 3.2 computes material surface area, pore diameters, effective thermal conductivity, continuum and rarefied tortuosity, and permeability. For anisotropic materials, PuMA can estimate material orientation and compute anisotropic thermal conductivity and elasticity. In this talk, a brief overview of the PuMA software and underlying methods will be presented, as well as some recent and ongoing developments, including the use of immersed boundary methods for image-based simulation and the development of a new weave segmentation tool, called TomoSAM. Cut-Cell method for heat and mass transfer For simulations on complex microstructures, traditional unstructured meshing techniques often prove to be difficult and time-intensive. Voxel-based solvers, which represent the surface as a staircase structure, are relatively simple to implement but can lose accuracy when feature resolution is poor. In this work, we present a novel 3D cut-cell method for solving the variable coefficient Poisson equation on complex microstructures, suitable for the determination of effective thermal conductivity or tortuosity of a material. The method uses a Marching Cubes/Marching Squares surface reconstruction to create cut-cells and determine geometric quantities. A flux-correction method is extended to 3D, with least squares gradient reconstruction, to solve for the boundary fluxes in the cut-cells. Verification cases show the solver achieves globally 2nd order accuracy on complex microstructures. TomoSAM TomoSAM, a module of the PuMA software, has been developed as a plugin for 3D Slicer, a software platform used for 3D image processing and visualization. It utilizes the Segment Anything Model (SAM), a deep learning model capable of identifying objects and generating image masks based on minimal user input. This feature enables efficient segmentation of complex 3D datasets, particularly of woven materials, from tomography or similar imaging methods, reducing the need for manual segmentation.

Tomography↗