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DOE OSTI2023

Classification Analysis of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Prior to Landfall

This study evaluates the ability of a random forest classifier to identify tropical cyclone (TC) intensification or weakening prior to landfall over the western region of the Southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) basin. For both Australia mainland and SWPO island cases, when a TC first crosses land after spending ≥24 h over the ocean, the closest hour prior to the intersection is considered as the landfall hour. If the maximum wind speed (V max ) at the landfall hour increased or remained the same from the 24-h mark prior to landfall, the TC is labeled as intensifying and if the V max at the landfall hour decreases, the TC is labeled as weakening. Geophysical and aerosol variables closest to the 24 h before landfall hour were collected for each sample. The random forest model with leave-one-out cross validation and the random oversampling example technique was identified as the best-performing classifier for both mainland and island cases. The model identified longitude, initial intensity, and sea skin temperature as the most important variables for the mainland and island landfall classification decisions. Incorrectly classified cases from the test data were analyzed by sorting the cases by their initial intensity hour, landfall hour, monthly distribution, and 24-h intensity changes. TC intensity changes near land strongly impact coastal preparations such as wind damage and flood damage mitigations; hence, this study will contribute to improve identifying and prioritizing prediction of important variables contributing to TC intensity change before landfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The influence of permeability anisotropy in the upper ocean crust on advective heat transport by a ridge-flank hydrothermal system

Here, in this study, we highlight the importance of permeability anisotropy on the hydrogeological regime of a ridge-flank hydrothermal system. Our study site, North Pond, is a marine sediment pond on ~8 Ma seafloor in the North Atlantic, and represents a low-temperature, end-member ridge-flank hydrothermal system. Previous simulations of North Pond elucidated long-standing hypotheses concerning hydrothermal fluid and heat transport in the upper volcanic crust but failed to fully explain observed patterns of seafloor heat flux in this area. Here we use variography, a geostatistical method, to quantify relations between seafloor heat-flux measurements, and coupled numerical simulations of fluid and heat flow to simulate the hydrogeologic regime. Directional variography shows that heat-flux observations are correlated along-strike of the regional crustal fabric. Three-dimensional simulations that include permeability anisotropy are able to replicate seafloor heat-flux patterns across North Pond. The simulations that result in the best match to thermal data incorporate permeability anisotropy in the horizontal plane. We find that the feedback between permeability anisotropy and the asymmetric geometry of North Pond combine to promote advective removal of heat and mass within the crustal aquifer. These findings suggest that permeability anisotropy in the oceanic crust may influence ridge-flank hydrothermal circulation more broadly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air‐Ice‐Ocean Coupling During a Strong Mid‐Winter Cyclone: Observing Coupled Dynamic Interactions Across Scales

Abstract Arctic cyclones are key drivers of sea ice and ocean variability. During the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, joint observations of the coupled air‐ice‐ocean system were collected at multiple spatial scales. Here, we present observations of a strong mid‐winter cyclone that impacted the MOSAiC site as it drifted in the central Arctic pack ice. The sea ice dynamical response showed spatial structure at the scale of the evolving and translating cyclonic wind field. Internal ice stress and ocean stress play significant roles, resulting in timing offsets between the atmospheric forcing and the ice response and post‐cyclone inertial ringing in the ice and ocean. Ice motion in response to the wind field then forces the upper ocean currents through frictional drag. The strongest impacts to the sea ice and ocean from the passing cyclone occur as a result of the surface impacts of a strong atmospheric low‐level jet (LLJ) behind the trailing cold front and changing wind directions between the warm‐sector LLJ and post cold‐frontal LLJ. Impacts of the cyclone are prolonged through the coupled ice‐ocean inertial response. Local impacts of the approximately 120 km wide LLJ occur over a 12 hr period or less and at scales of a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers, meaning that these impacts occur at combined smaller spatial scales and faster time scales than most satellite observations and coupled Earth system models can resolve.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks

This study assesses the deterministic and probabilistic forecasting skill of a 1-month-lead ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (EANN) based on low-frequency climate oscillation indices. The predictand is the February-April (FMA) rainfall in the Brazilian state of Ceará, which is a prominent subject in climate forecasting studies due to its high seasonal predictability. Additionally, the study proposes combining the EANN with dynamical models into a hybrid multi-model ensemble (MME). The forecast verification is carried out through a leave-one-out cross-validation based on 40 years of data. The EANN forecasting skill is compared with traditional statistical models and the dynamical models that compose Ceará’s operational seasonal forecasting system. A spatial comparison showed that the EANN was among the models with the smallest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Ranked Probability Score (RPS) in most regions. Moreover, the analysis of the area-aggregated reliability showed that the EANN is better calibrated than the individual dynamical models and has better resolution than Multinomial Logistic Regression for above-normal (AN) and below-normal (BN) categories. It is also shown that combining the EANN and dynamical models into a hybrid MME reduces the overconfidence of the extreme categories observed in a dynamically-based MME, improving the reliability of the forecasting system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Stiffness Power Take-Off System for a Hydraulic Hose-Pump Point Absorber Wave Energy Converter

Two crucial challenges faced in the design of ocean wave energy converters (WECs) are maintaining high capacity factors and remaining robust in everchanging, harsh ocean environments. This study introduces a novel mechanism for achieving reactive WEC control with a soft hydraulic power take-off, thereby addressing both challenges. The device of interest involves a hydraulic pump, constructed from a fluidic flexible matrix composite (F2MC), which is cyclically stretched by driving waves and pressurizes working fluid through a turbine-generator. This class of fiber-reinforced stretch hoses is established for ocean use as robust moorings and shock absorbers. The dynamic properties of the F2MC pump depend on internal pressure, which can be controlled by a continuously variable transmission between the turbine and generator, allowing the system to be adapted for better performance over a wide range of wave conditions. This work presents a dynamic model for operation and adaptive behavior of this power take-off system, experimentally validates components of the model, and performs dynamic simulations of the system that show increases in power production and capacity factor compared to non-adaptive operation for a variety of driving wave conditions. This work develops the basis for future large-scale experimental testing and controller design of this system.

Wave energy conversion, fluidic flexible matrix co↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Impact of Lightning NOx Emissions in CMAQ Using Lightning Flash Data from WWLLN over the Contiguous United States

Comparison of lightning flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the 2016–2018 period reveals temporally and spatially varying flash rates that would influence lightning NO x (LNO x ) production due to known detection efficiency differences especially during summer months over land (versus over ocean). However, the lightning flash density differences between the two networks show persistent seasonal patterns over geographical regions (e.g., land versus ocean). Since the NLDN data are considered to have higher accuracy (lightning detection with >95% efficiency), we developed scaling factors for the WWLLN flash data based on the ratios of WWLLN to NLDN flash data over time (months of year) and space. In this study, sensitivity simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are performed utilizing the original data sets (both NLDN and WWLLN) and the scaled WWLLN flash data for LNO x production over the CONUS. The model performance of using the different lightning flash datasets for ambient O 3 and NO x mixing ratios that are directly impacted by LNO x emissions and the wet and dry deposition of oxidized nitrogen species that are indirectly impacted by LNO x emissions is assessed based on comparisons with ground-based observations, vertical profile measurements, and satellite products. During summer months, the original WWLLN data produced less LNO x emissions (due to its lower lightning detection efficiency) compared to the NLDN data, which resulted in less improvement in model performance than the simulation using NLDN data as compared to the simulation without any LNO x emissions. However, the scaled WWLLN data produced LNO x estimates and model performance comparable with the NLDN data, suggesting that scaled WWLLN may be used as a substitute for the NLDN data to provide LNO x estimates in air quality models when the NLDN data are not available (e.g., due to prohibitive cost or lack of spatial coverage).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Combined Mesonet and Tracker

Title: Combined Mesonet and Trackers (UNL Mobile Mesonets) Authors University of Nebraska PI: Adam Houston, UNL Professor (ahouston2@unl.edu) Mailing Address: 126 Bessey Hall P.O. Box 880340 Lincoln, NE 68588-0340 CoMeT Overview The University of Nebraska-Lincoln operates three Combined Mesonet and Tracker (CoMeTs). CoMeTs are Ford Explorers (model years 2015, 2017, and 2019) with forward-mounted suites of meteorological sensors and dual moonroofs, combining the capability of a mobile mesonet to collect near-surface observations with the capability of an unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) tracker vehicle, which enables an observer in the second row of seats to see the aircraft and maintain compliance with Federal Aviation Administration policies on UAS operation. The CoMeTs collect observations of slow temperature and humidity at ~2 m above ground level (AGL) using a Vaisala HMP155A, fast temperature at ~2 m AGL using a Campbell Scientific 109SS-L thermistor, pressure at ~2.5 m AGL using a Vaisala PTB210, wind speed and direction at ~3.25 m AGL using an R.M. Young 05103 propeller anemometer, and vehicle heading using a KVH Industries C-100 fluxgate compass (Barbieri et al. 2019). The HMP155A and 109SS-L thermistor are shielded and aspirated within a U-tube (Waugh and Frederickson 2010; Houston et al. 2016). This list of sensors is also included in the CoMeT data file metadata. Manufacturer specifications for these instruments are given in Table 1 of Hanft and Houston (2018). The reported measured quantities are summarized below.CoMeT-3 was funded through an equipment allocation included in the NSF TORUS award (AGS-1824649). Instrument Description The specific sensors included on each CoMeT are summarized in the table at the end of this section. In general each CoMeT collects observations of slow temperature and humidity at ~2 m above ground level (AGL) using a Vaisala HMP155, fast temperature at ~2 m AGL using a Campbell Scientific 109SS-L thermistor, pressure at ~2.5 m AGL using a Vaisala PTB210 barometer with a Gill pressure port, wind speed and direction at ~3.25 m AGL using an R.M. Young 05103 propeller anemometer, position using a Garmin 19x HVS receiver, and vehicle heading using a KVH Industries C-100 fluxgate compass. The HMP155 and 109SS are shielded and aspirated within a U-tube (Waugh and Frederickson 2010; Houston et al. 2016). Fast temperature and corrected RH measurements (using sensors housed within the U-tube) have a time constant of 10-12 s based on data collected across a temperature and RH shock during the CLOUD-MAP 2017 calibration/validation tests on June 26, 2017. Vehicle speed was < 10 kts for this test. CoMeT-1 CoMeT-2 CoMeT-3 Slow Temperature Slow RH Vaisala HMP155A-L20-PT Part #: 22280-7 Vaisala HMP155E Part #: E1AA11A0B1A1A0A Vaisala HMP155E Part #: E1AA11A0B1A1A0A Fast temperature Campbell Scientific 109SS-L20-PT Part #: 21448-3 Campbell Scientific 109SS-L12-PW Part #: 21448-109 Campbell Scientific 109SS-L12-PW Part #: 21448-150 Pressure Vaisala PTB-210 Part #: A1A1B Gill Pressure Port Part #: 61002 Vaisala PTB-210 Part #: A1A1B Gill Pressure Port Part #: 61002 Vaisala PTB-210 Part #: A1A1B Gill Pressure Port Part #: 61002 Wind RM Young 05103-L20-PT Part #: 18435-310 RM Young 05103-L20-PW Part #: 18435-244 RM Young 05103-L20-PW Part #: 18435-244 GPS Garmin GPS 19x HVS (NMEA 0183) Part #: 010-01010-00 Garmin GPS 19x HVS (NMEA 0183) Part #: 010-01010-00 Garmin GPS 19x HVS (NMEA 0183) Part #: 010-01010-00 Compass KVH C-100 Part #: 01-0177-15 KVH C-100 Part #: 01-0177-15 KVH C-100 Part #: 01-0177-15 Logger Campbell Scientific CR6-NA-XT-SW Part #: 28385-9 Campbell Scientific CR6-WIFI-XT-SW Part #: 28385-6 Campbell Scientific CR6-WIFI-XT-SW Part #: 28385-6 Data Collection and Real-Time Processing The reported measured quantities are summarized in the table below. Quantity Units Source Epoch time Seconds GPS Latitude and longitude Degrees GPS Altitude m GPS Pressure hPa PTB210 Temperature (fast) deg C 109SS-L Temperature (slow) deg C HMP155 RH (slow) % HMP155 Vehicle speed m/s GPS Vehicle heading deg C-100 and GPS In addition to the measured variables, several derived variables are calculated. Corrected/fast relative humidity (%) Relative humidity is adjusted to the fast temperature following Richardson et al. (1998) and Houston et al. (2016). Water vapor mixing ratio (g/kg) Dew point temperature (°C) Potential temperature (Kelvin) Virtual potential temperature (Kelvin) Equivalent potential temperature (Kelvin) Regular intercomparisons between all three CoMeTs were performed during TORUS 2019. Comparisons were also conducted between CoMeT-1 and CoMeT-2 during LAPSE-RATE (2018) on 14 July. In these intercomparisons, the vehicles were parked adjacent to each other aligned perpendicular to (and facing into) the wind. To minimize engine heating effects, intercomparisons were only conducted when the wind speed was >10 kts. Data Format Original data files for each deployment are saved as text files and then converted to NetCDF. NetCDF versions have units that are CF compliant and may not match the original units in the txt files. The naming convention for the NetCDF files is as follows: UNL.CoMeT3.{deployment date YYYYMMDD}.{start time of observation collection in UTC HHMM}.L2.{post-processing codes}.cdf example: UNL.CoMeT3.20190627.1931.L2.g1.f1.cdf Post-processing codes are included to track modifications to the raw data. These codes are closely connected to error flags associated with each record. Each letter corresponds to a particular instrument: g: GPS p: Barometer tf: Fast temperature ts: Slow temperature rh: Relative humidity f: Compass w: Wind monitor a: All instruments Each number corresponds to a particular post-processing action described more below. Measured and derived variables are included in the following table. Variable Heading Standard Name Units time Time seconds since 00:00:00, 01-01-1970 Alt Altitude meters lat Latitude degrees north lon Longitude degrees east fast_temp Air Temperature kelvin slow_temp Air Temperature kelvin pressure Air Pressure pascals logger_RH Relative Humidity percent calc_corr_RH Relative Humidity percent wind_speed Wind Speed meters per second wind_dir Wind From Direction degrees vehicle_dir Vehicle Direction degrees dewpoint Dew Point Temperature kelvin mixing_ratio Humidity Mixing Ratio g/g theta Air Potential Temperature kelvin theta_v Virtual Potential Temperature kelvin theta_e Equivalent Potential Temperature Kelvin error_flag The error_flag variable is a string that matches the post-processing codes listed above. All instruments will have an associated code, but will have a “0” if the datum is unchanged from the initial processed value. Error Codes The following table summarizes the error codes for data collected before 2020: Error Code Relevant CoMeT Description g1 1,2,3 Exact correction. GPS position and time reprocessed from raw data g2 1 As far as we can tell this is an exact correction to an error in the GPS time. During the correct time periods the time suddenly went backwards ~250s and stayed at this offset for 750s when it corrected itself. The offset was applied to the “time warp” period. p1 2 Approximate correction. Hole in the pressure tube connecting the pressure port to the barometer. Resulted in erroneously low air pressure measurements when the vehicle was in motion. Derived variables recalculated (dew point temperature [e depends on qv and p], water vapor mixing ratio, potential temperature, virtual potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature) a1 3 Exact correction. Missing data reprocessed from raw data a2 1 Bug fix to bias correction for ts1, ts2, and rh1: water vapor mixing ratio was off by a factor of 10 and virtual potential temperature was wrong because of this. f1 3 No correction, missing data. Fluxgate compass inoperable. Wind speed and direction calculated using GPS-derived vehicle heading instead. rh1 1 Approximate correction. Constant bias of +1.7% removed from relative humidity. Derived variables recalculated (corrected/fast relative humidity, dew point temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, virtual potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature) ts1 1 Approximate correction. Constant bias of +0.6 K removed from slow temperature. Derived variables recalculated (corrected/fast relative humidity, dew point temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, virtual potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature) ts2 1 Approximate correction. Constant bias of +1.0 K removed. Derived variables recalculated (corrected/fast relative humidity, dew point temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, virtual potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature) References Bolton, D., 1980: The Computation of Equivalent Potential Temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1046–1053, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1046:TCOEPT>2.0.CO;2. Hanft, W., and A. L. Houston, 2018: An Observational and Modeling Study of Mesoscale Air Masses with High Theta-E. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 2503–2524, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0389.1.Wexler Houston, A. L., R. J. Laurence III, T. W. Nichols, S. Waugh, B. Argrow, and C. L. Ziegler, 2016: Intercomparison of unmanned aircraft-borne and mobile mesonet atmospheric sensors. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 33, 1569-1582, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0178.1. Lowe, P. R., 1977: An Approximating Polynomial for the Computation of Saturation Vapor Pressure. J. Applied Meteorology, 16, 100–103. Richardson, S. J., S. E. Frederickson, F. V. Brock, and J. A. Brotzge, 1998: Combination temperature and relative humidity probes: Avoiding large air temperature errors and associated relative humidity errors. Preprints, 10th Symp. On Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 278–283. Waugh, S., and S. E. Frederickson, 2010: An improved aspirated temperature system for mobile meteorological observations, especially in severe weather. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.2. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/25SLS/techprogram/paper_176205.htm.]

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Massive formation of early diagenetic dolomite in the Ediacaran ocean: Constraints on the “dolomite problem”

Paleozoic and Precambrian sedimentary successions frequently contain massive dolomicrite [CaMg(CO 3 ) 2 ] units despite kinetic inhibitions to nucleation and precipitation of dolomite at Earth surface temperatures (<60 °C). This paradoxical observation is known as the “dolomite problem.” Accordingly, the genesis of these dolostones is usually attributed to burial–hydrothermal dolomitization of primary limestones (CaCO 3 ) at temperatures of >100 °C, thus raising doubt about the validity of these deposits as archives of Earth surface environments. We present a high-resolution, >63-My-long clumped-isotope temperature (T Δ47 ) record of shallow-marine dolomicrites from two drillcores of the Ediacaran (635 to 541 Ma) Doushantuo Formation in South China. Our T ∆47 record indicates that a majority (87%) of these dolostones formed at temperatures of <100 °C. When considering the regional thermal history, modeling of the influence of solid-state reordering on our T Δ47 record further suggests that most of the studied dolostones formed at temperatures of <60 °C, providing direct evidence of a low-temperature origin of these dolostones. Furthermore, calculated δ 18 O values of diagenetic fluids, rare earth element plus yttrium compositions, and petrographic observations of these dolostones are consistent with an early diagenetic origin in a rock-buffered environment. We thus propose that a precursor precipitate from seawater was subsequently dolomitized during early diagenesis in a near-surface setting to produce the large volume of dolostones in the Doushantuo Formation. Our findings suggest that the preponderance of dolomite in Paleozoic and Precambrian deposits likely reflects oceanic conditions specific to those eras and that dolostones can be faithful recorders of environmental conditions in the early oceans.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic incident-wave elevation prediction in intermediate water depth

Potential performance gains from optimal (non-causal) impedance-matching control of wave energy devices in irregular ocean waves are dependent on deterministic wave elevation prediction techniques that work well in practical applications. Although a number of devices are designed for operation in intermediate water depths, little work has been reported on deterministic wave prediction in such depths. Here, we investigated a deterministic wave-prediction technique based on an approximate propagation model that leads to an analytical formulation, which may be convenient to implement in practice. To improve accuracy, an approach to combine predictions based on multiple up-wave measurement points is evaluated. The overall method is tested using experimental time-series measurements recorded in the U.S. Navy MASK basin in Carderock, MD, USA. For comparison, an alternative prediction approach based on Fourier coefficients is also tested with the same data. Comparison of prediction approaches with direct measurements suggest room for improvement. Possible sources of error including tank reflections are estimated, and potential mitigation approaches are discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability

Adaptation to future sea-level rise is based on projections of continuously improving climate models. These projections are accompanied by inherent uncertainties, including those due to internal climate variability (ICV). The ICV arises from complex and unpredictable interactions within and between climate-system components, rendering its impact irreducible. Although neglecting this uncertainty can lead to an underestimation of future sea-level rise, its estimation and impacts have not been fully explored. Combining the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble experiments with power-law statistics, we show that, by 2100, if the ICV uncertainty reaches its upper limit, new sea-level-rise hotspots would appear in Southeast Asian megacities (Chennai, Kolkata, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and Manila), in western tropical Pacific Islands and the Western Indian Ocean. Here, the better the ICV uncertainty is taken into account and correctly estimated, the more effective adaptation strategies can be elaborated with confidence and actions to follow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability

Abstract Interactions between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can affect tropical Pacific variability and its global impacts at both interannual and decadal timescales. Thus, a deepened understanding of the coupled Atlantic-Pacific interactions is needed. While possible dynamical mechanisms by which the Atlantic can influence the Pacific have been identified, the effectiveness of those mechanisms is difficult to establish using climate model simulations where Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed and Pacific feedbacks cannot be realistically included. As an alternative approach, here we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) trained on observations and capable of correctly reproducing the observed statistics, to assess the relative role of the Atlantic-to-Pacific and Pacific-to-Atlantic influences on tropical Pacific variability. Our results indicate that Atlantic internal variability can enhance interannual SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and decadal SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, while Pacific influences on the Atlantic significantly damp tropical Pacific decadal variability. This methodological framework could also be used to assess climate model fidelity in representing tropical basin interactions, helping to reconcile existing differences among models’ results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design of high deflection foils for MHK applications - CFD files

The Ocean Renewable Power Company's (ORPC's) goal is to design, develop, and test hydrofoils with large deflections. The effects of the deflections on cross-flow turbine performance would be evaluated in order to inform design considerations for full-scale water turbines and other marine hydrokinetic devices. OpenFOAM V1912 files for straight foil model scale turbines in the University of New Hampshire tow tank. Strut Locations = (0.13, 0.225, 0.450, 0.675, 0.900) [m] Tip speed ratio = 2.40

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Multiscale Earth System and Human-Earth System Dynamics in the Puget Sound Region

With its mountain-to-coast hydroclimate, strong influence of Pacific Ocean weather systems and climate patterns, and unique land use history with strong rural-to-urban gradients, the Puget Sound region is a natural laboratory for studying a number of complex processes in, and interactions among, different Earth and human systems. A 1-year scoping study was initiated by the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research. It was intended to elucidate and highlight the rich opportunities Puget Sound offers to advance our understanding of and ability to simulate Earth system changes and human-Earth system interactions. A literature review, multi-day community workshop, and external input were used to develop this scoping study report. The report first summarizes scientific understanding and knowledge gaps associated with major regional systems, including atmosphere and climate, the land surface, coastal and marine processes, and human systems, as well as how these systems are changing over time. It then highlights some of the most notable extreme events in the region, including heat waves, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and wildfires. Finally, key research opportunities for Earth and environmental systems modeling in, above, and around Puget Sound are highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 3: Marine Renewable Energy: Stressor-Receptor Interactions

Determining the potential effects of marine renewable energy (MRE) development on the ocean requires consideration of how each component of a tidal, wave, riverine, or other MRE system might affect marine animals, habitats that support marine communities, or processes that make up essential oceanographic and ecological systems. Researchers around the world have been assessing the potential effects of MRE deployments and operations using a variety of instruments, models, analytical methods, and approaches. The most common approach, and the one followed throughout this report, is the framework of stressor-receptor interactions (Boehlert & Gill 2010), where stressors are the components of an MRE device and associated system that may cause stress, injury, or death to a marine animal, habitat, or ecosystem. The receptors are the species, their habitats, and the oceanographic and ecological processes that support them.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimum power analysis of a self-reactive wave energy point absorber with mechanically-driven power take-offs

This paper studies a self-reactive ocean wave energy converter (WEC) where energy is absorbed through the relative motion between a floating buoy on the ocean surface and a submerged body. Two types of direct-drive power take off (PTO) systems are examined. One adopts a ball screw system in inverse driving mode with mechanical motion rectifier (MMR) that converts the oscillating bi-directional input heave motion into unidirectional rotation to drive an electromagnetic generator, and another one uses a ball screw system to directly drive the generator (called non-MMR). Dynamic models for both types of PTOs are established and integrated with the overall WEC system model in both the time and frequency domains. Numerical simulation is used to investigate the dynamic performance of both PTOs. The influences of the PTO inerter, which is from the rotational inertia of the flywheel and generator, and the WEC drag damping coefficient are discussed and explored. The analytical closed-form solution for the optimum condition of the non-MMR system is derived based on the criterion of maximum power absorption, and numerical simulation yields the optimum condition for the MMR system. Overall, the results under regular and irregular waves show that the PTO inerter in the MMR system can improve the power absorption for small wave periods and maintain the same performance for large wave periods. The PTO inerter in the non-MMR system shifts the peak frequency. The WEC drag damping negatively influences the power absorption in both PTO systems, especially at large wave periods.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum from a simple cirque glacier in Fiordland, New Zealand

Mountain glacier records offer important constraints on the timing and magnitude of climate variability during the last glacial cycle. Existing moraine chronologies from the central Southern Alps indicate maximum ice extent was achieved during marine isotope stages 3–4, followed by repeated advances of similar, but gradually declining extent during marine isotope stage 2, until onset of the glacial termination. Questions remain over the precise role of climate in driving these changes, as most existing moraine chronologies come from large, complex former valley glacier systems, where non-climatic influences such as changing bed topography and proglacial lake formation may have influenced glacier length changes. In this work, we address this problem via a new cosmogenic 10Be chronology and equilibrium line altitude reconstruction from a cirque glacier situated in Fiordland, New Zealand. Our chronology shows moraine deposition at 32 ± 11 ka, 18.7 ± 0.2 ka, 18.1 ± 0.1 ka, and c. 17.2 ± 0.3 ka. The simple geometry of the former glacier supports the role of climate in driving a net decline of regional ice volume during marine isotope stages 3–2. Close spacing and good preservation of the 19–17 ka moraines permits 2D glacier reconstruction which suggests the equilibrium line altitude remained depressed by c.1130 m (equivalent to 5.8 ± 0.6 °C colder than present) during this interval. Onset of warming after 17.2 ± 0.2 ka is consistent with climate proxy evidence for a sustained southward shift in the southern westerly winds, which may have promoted deglaciation via shifting ocean currents and promoting increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗