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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,225 records · Page 68
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ares 1X Hybrid Modeling with Comparisons to Flight Data

This slide presentation reviews the Ares 1X test flight and compares the resultant flight data with the results of modeled data from siumulations of the flight. It includes: (1) Ares 1X Flight Summary, (2) Ares 1X Data Summary (3) Model Descriptions (4) Model Comparisons to Flight Data in three areas: (a) Liftoff, (b) Transonic and (c) Roll Control Firings (RCS) Firings.

Niedermaier, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2013

Filling the Gaps: The Synergistic Application of Satellite Data for the Volcanic Ash Threat to Aviation

Although significant progress has been made in recent years, estimating volcanic ash concentration for the full extent of the airspace affected by volcanic ash remains a challenge. No single satellite, airborne or ground observing system currently exists which can sufficiently inform dispersion models to provide the degree of accuracy required to use them with a high degree of confidence for routing aircraft in and near volcanic ash. Toward this end, the detection and characterization of volcanic ash in the atmosphere may be substantially improved by integrating a wider array of observing systems and advancements in trajectory and dispersion modeling to help solve this problem. The qualitative aspect of this effort has advanced significantly in the past decade due to the increase of highly complementary observational and model data currently available. Satellite observations, especially when coupled with trajectory and dispersion models can provide a very accurate picture of the 3-dimensional location of ash clouds. The accurate estimate of the mass loading at various locations throughout the entire plume, however improving, remains elusive. This paper examines the capabilities of various satellite observation systems and postulates that model-based volcanic ash concentration maps and forecasts might be significantly improved if the various extant satellite capabilities are used together with independent, accurate mass loading data from other observing systems available to calibrate (tune) ash concentration retrievals from the satellite systems.

Murray, John↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network of networks: Time series clustering of AmeriFlux sites

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbe-iron interactions control lignin decomposition in soil

Lignin decomposition is critically linked to terrestrial carbon (C) cycle due to the enormous C mass of lignin and its importance in controlling overall rates of litter decomposition. Interactions between lignin and iron (Fe) minerals have been increasingly recognized as key mediators of lignin decomposition in experimental studies. However, we still lack a quantitative understanding of how Fe minerals interact with microbes to control lignin decomposition. Here, we leveraged experimental results from an incubation of Fe-rich soil, in which lignin decomposition rates were measured at aerobic conditions after four levels of pre-treated O2 availability, to examine microbe-Fe (MiFe) interactions in lignin decomposition with a MiFe model. We quantified how Fe redox cycling interacted with microbial activities to control lignin decomposition via data-model integration. Our results showed that the MiFe model with time-dependent growth and mortality functions better represented CO2 release from lignin decomposition (R2 ranging from 0.96 to 0.97) than models assuming either first-order or Michaelis-Menten kinetics. Reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II) after pre-treatments with lower O2 availability stimu-lated the Fenton reaction to break down macro-molecular lignin into small molecules available to microbes. The small molecules of lignin and necromass bounded with oxidized Fe and were protected from decomposition. After 1-year incubation, the model implied that most of C stabilized with Fe minerals was derived from small molecular lignin C. Our quantitative analysis of microbe-Fe interactions sheds new light on lignin decomposition and preservation and helps improve model prediction of soil C persistence under global change.

Liao, Cuijuan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of irradiated graphite property models under high temperatures

Graphite under high temperatures and irradiation is central to advanced reactors. We develop a Bayesian calibration framework for graphite property models that explicitly represents model-data mismatch via a Gaussian-process discrepancy. The approach propagates uncertainty from parameters, experimental noise, and model form, with a hierarchical variance structure to capture group and cross-group noise. Using two predictive models across five grades (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA, NBG-17, 2114) and four properties-irradiation-induced dimension change, creep, Young’s modulus change ratio, and coefficient of thermal expansion change ratio-we obtain average predictive-error reductions of 54%, 65%, 17%, and 17% when discrepancy is included. We illustrate engineering impact with a multiphysics model of a very-high-temperature reactor prismatic reflector brick, analyzing stresses under high fluence and temperature. Accounting for model discrepancy markedly improves predictive accuracy and provides a robust basis for reliable graphite component design in advanced reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

1D Modeling for the Development of a Digital Twin for Hydropower Systems with Applications for a Testing Rig

Modeling and simulation constitute two important parts in constructing a sensible digital twin to mimic the dynamics of hydropower systems. Because of the physical nature of a hydropower system, the basic modeling should cover the water flow systems from the reservoir to the penstock (inlet water pipes), penstock to hydro turbine, and hydro turbine to generator and from the linkage of the hydropower systems to the grid. This report describes initial attempts to model these dynamic components, including the formulation of the linearized state space model for hydro turbine systems using the well-known six-coefficients linearization method and the formulation of the voltage and power dynamical models of a synchronous generator. To validate the accuracy of the proposed model, data collected from Norwegian University of Science and Technology were used to obtain relevant parameters for the model, and the desired simulation results were obtained. Additionally, neural network modeling and learning were also developed and applied to model the generation torque and water flow rate subsystems to demonstrate a potential learning scheme, which can be used in the development of a digital twin.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization and stabilization of Fermilab Booster using hybrid Bayesian/RL framework

PIPII project will raise Fermilab Booster intensity and ramp rate. Beam losses will limit average power and are hard to simulate. Presently, Booster uses operator-guided empirical tuning. This task is challenging due to high dimensionality, multiple objectives, critical safety constraints, and drifts. We developed a synergistic suite of Bayesian optimization (BO) and reinforcement learning (RL) tools to optimize and stabilize beam losses. First, active learning was used to build a rough model. Data was collected parasitically using two novel safety constraint types – nonlinear input space restrictions (based on optics model), and uncertainty constraints (to stop bad steps/beam aborts). We then applied online multi-objective BO with scalarized objectives and fitting to improve/rebalance losses, increasing safety margins by 25%. Using BO model as a safety veto, we tried several on/off-policy RL agents for long term stabilization; SAC had best performance. We found that adding contextual (state) information further improved performance, eventually integrating key knobs like linac phase and temperature into the parameter space. Long term testing is ongoing to enable operational use.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRS1972

Aerodynamic loads measurements on externally blown flap STOL models

Small-scale-model data have shown large static loads on the flap system behind the engines. The large-scale-model tests confirmed the magnitude of these loads and indicated that the relative loading of each flap element depends on the engine-wing-flap geometry. Flap response measurements indicated that the unsteady pressure loading excited the natural vibration modes of the flap system on this model. Since this was a boilerplate model, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that the possibility of large vibration loads must be considered for a flight-weight structure. The similarity of the unsteady pressure and flap response spectra for the wind-off and wind-on cases indicated that it may be possible to realistically test flight-weight flap structures on a static test stand rather than endure the extra costs and scheduling problems associated with large-scale wind-tunnel tests. There is a potential flap-temperature problem which if not resolved might preclude the use of materials such as aluminum and the composites in the flap structure.

Greene, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A distributed data base management facility for the CAD/CAM environment

Current/PAD research in the area of distributed data base management considers facilities for supporting CAD/CAM data management in a heterogeneous network of computers encompassing multiple data base managers supporting a variety of data models. These facilities include coordinated execution of multiple DBMSs to provide for administration of and access to data distributed across them.

Balza, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Data Tips: Learn How to Discover, Access and Analyze NASA GES DISC Data

At the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services (GES DISC), we strive to simplify data discovery and data access to our wide range of global climate data, concentrated primarily in the areas of atmospheric composition, atmospheric dynamics, global precipitation, solar irradiance, and several modeling data sets related to land surface hydrology. To help meet user needs, we will demonstrate how you can use the GES DISC knowledge-base resources (HowTo's) and we also encourage community contributions.

data tips↗
NASA NTRS1999

Concept of Fractal Dimension use of Multifractal Cloud Liquid Models Based on Real Data as Input to Monte Carlo Radiation Models

The purpose of this paper is discuss the concept of fractal dimension; multifractal statistics as an extension of this; the use of simple multifractal statistics (power spectrum, structure function) to characterize cloud liquid water data; and to understand the use of multifractal cloud liquid water models based on real data as input to Monte Carlo radiation models of shortwave radiation transfer in 3D clouds, and the consequences of this in two areas: the design of aircraft field programs to measure cloud absorptance; and the explanation of the famous "Landsat scale break" in measured radiance.

Wiscombe, W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Comparisons of measured and theoretical thermospheric daily composition variations

A comparison of the diurnal component of the daily variation in the neutral composition data from the San Marco 3 Nace (Neutral Atmospheric Composition Experiment) mass spectrometer at 220, 250, and 280 km, the OGO-6 model data at 450 km, rocket measurements of nitrogen between 140 and 300 km, and the two-constituent theoretical model of Mayr and Volland (1973) gives good agreement for molecular nitrogen and atomic oxygen. The Nace and rocket measurements overlap in altitude, and there is good agreement in the amplitude and phase of the diurnal and semidiurnal components for molecular nitrogen. The helium diurnal amplitude and phase of the theoretical model are in fair agreement with the Nace results, while the amplitude from the OGO-6 model at 450 km is much larger than the model predicts, a result suggesting that the OGO-6 model diurnal amplitude may be overestimated as the result of an incomplete separation of local-time and seasonal effects.

Kasprzak, W. T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

PyDDA: A Pythonic Direct Data Assimilation Framework for Wind Retrievals

This software assimilates data from an arbitrary number of weather radars together with other spatial wind fields (eg numerical weather forecasting model data) in order to retrieve high resolution three dimensional wind fields. PyDDA uses NumPy and SciPy’s optimization techniques combined with the Python Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Radar Toolkit (Py-ART) in order to create wind fields using the 3D variational technique (3DVAR). PyDDA is hosted and distributed on GitHub at https://github.com/openradar/PyDDA. PyDDA has the potential to be used by the atmospheric science community to develop high resolution wind retrievals from radar networks. These retrievals can be used for the evaluation of numerical weather forecasting models and plume modelling. This paper shows how wind fields from 2 NEXt generation RADar (NEXRAD) WSR-88D radars and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh can be assimilated together using PyDDA to create a high resolution wind field inside Hurricane Florence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Prediction of Noise-Power-Distance Data for Urban Air Mobility Vehicles

In contrast to most commercial air traffic today, vehicles serving the urban air mobility (UAM) market are anticipated to operate within communities and be close to the public at large. The approved model for assessing environmental impact of air traffic actions in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), does not directly support analysis of such operations due to a combined lack of UAM aircraft flight performance model data and aircraft noise data. This paper addresses the latter by offering two prediction-based approaches for generation of noise-power-distance (NPD) data for use within AEDT. One utilizes the AEDT fixed-wing aircraft modeling approach and the other utilizes the AEDT rotary-wing aircraft modeling approach.

noise-power-distance↗
DOE OSTI2024

County Level Annual Population Projections for SSP3 and SSP5

This dataset consist of annual (2020-2100) county-level population projections for the United States (U.S.) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The original decadal state-level data is used as an input to the gridded population data model to downscale the state-level projections for each SSP to a 1 km grid. The 1 km data is then aggregated to the county-level using the 2020 TIGER/Line county shapefiles from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data files are shared as .csv files with the following structure: Rows = Data for individual counties which are identified using their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The FIPS code is stored in the first column. Columns = Each year from 2020-2100 is an individual column. For easier reference, the state name associated with each row is stored in the last column. Values in each cell are the downscaled estimated population for that county-year combination. Values are fractional due to the weighting scheme used in the downscaling. The paper and model source code cited in the "Related Works" section describes the initial source of the population projections.

FIPS↗
NASA NTRS1991

A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

Chao, Y.↗