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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

Titan's Ionospheric Chemistry, Fullerenes, Oxygen, Galactic Cosmic Rays and the Formation of Exobiological Molecules on and within its Surfaces and Lakes

We discuss the formation of aerosols within Titan's thermosphere-ionosphere and the different chemical pathways. Negative ion measurements by the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer (CAPS) Electron Spectrometer (ELS) give evidence for formation of unsaturated anion carbon chains, while positive ion measurements of the Cassini Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INMS) indicate formation of more aromatic cation hydrocarbons. There is presently no direct observational evidence for large neutral molecule growth in Titan's thermosphere-ionosphere. The hydrocarbon cations are expected to form Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH), those with the addition of nitrogen being called PAHNs. We theorize anion carbon chains can eventually become long enough to fold into fullerene C(60,70) carbon shells, of various charge states. Based on laboratory data the fullerenes can trap incoming O(sup +) magnetospheric ions that have relatively high energy collisions with the fullerenes and, once trapped, protect the oxygen atom from Titan's reducing thermosphere-ionosphere. The fullerenes can form into larger onion fullerenes and condense into larger embryo aerosols (i.e., m/q > 10,000 amu/q anions as observed by CAPS/ELS) eventually falling onto Titan's surface and precipitating to the bottom of its hydrocarbon lakes. Molecule production composed of H, C, N is known to occur in Titan's atmosphere with energy input from the magnetosphere, solar UV, and deeppenetrating irradiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Space radiation effects by GCR irradiation of Titan's surface and lakes can lead to the manufacture of exobiological molecules with oxygen as the new ingredient. We have developed a model of galactic cosmic ray irradiation of Titan's atmosphere, surface, subsurface and bottoms of Titan lakes. GCR would provide further energy for processing of the aerosols into more complex organic forms such as tholins and precursor molecules for amino acids. A second process called hydrolysis then converts the precursor molecules into amino acids. Hydrolysis is provided via meteor impacts with size > 10 km and cryovolcanism both which can produce liquid water on Titan's surface for episodic periods > several 100 to 1000 years. Our model shows that GCR secondary particles can penetrate ~ 100 m below the ice surface (including the bottom of Titan's less dense hydrocarbon lakes ~ 150 m depths) and produce chemically significant dosages over very long timescales ~ 450 Myrs. The GCR model is combined with laboratory data from experiments in which dry methyl ices were irradiated to doses producing prebiotic amino acids such as glycine. The model calculations show glycine can form to ~ 2.5 ppb levels near the surface after ~450 Myrs of GCR proton irradiation and potentially to 5 ppb if heavy-ion GCRs up through Fe are included. If such molecules were detected, this would not only confirm this model but indicate that life forms different from ours may not be required.

Edward C. Sittler Jr↗

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Impact investigations will be an important aspect of the InSight mission. One of the scientific goals of the mission is a measurement of the current impact rate at Mars. Impacts will additionally inform the major goal of investigating the interior structure of Mars. In this paper, we review the current state of knowledge about seismic signals from impacts on the Earth, Moon, and laboratory experiments. We describe the generalized physical models that can be used to explain these signals. A discussion of the appropriate source time function for impacts is presented, along with spectral characteristics including the cutoff frequency and its dependence on impact momentum. Estimates of the seismic efficiency (ratio between seismic and impact energies) vary widely. Our preferred value for the seismic efficiency at Mars is 5 × 10−4, which we recommend using until we can measure it during the InSight mission, when seismic moments are not used directly. Effects of the material properties at the impact point and at the seismometer location are considered. We also discuss the processes by which airbursts and acoustic waves emanate from bolides, and the feasibility of detecting such signals. We then consider the case of impacts on Mars. A review is given of the current knowledge of present-day cratering on Mars: the current impact rate, characteristics of those impactors such as velocity and directions, and the morphologies of the craters those impactors create. Several methods of scaling crater size to impact energy are presented. The Martian atmosphere, although thin, will cause fragmentation of impactors, with implications for the resulting seismic signals. We also benchmark several different seismic modeling codes to be used in analysis of impact detections, and those codes are used to explore the seismic amplitude of impactinduced signals as a function of distance from the impact site. We predict a measurement of the current impact flux will be possible within the timeframe of the prime mission (one Mars year) with the detection of ∼ a few to several tens of impacts. However, the error bars on these predictions are large. Specific to the InSight mission, we list discriminators of seismic signals from impacts that will be used to distinguish them from marsquakes. We describe the role of the InSight Impacts Science Theme Group during mission operations, including a plan for possible night-time meteor imaging. The impacts detected by these methods during the InSight mission will be used to improve interior structure models, measure the seismic efficiency, and calculate the size frequency distribution of current impacts.

Ingrid Daubar↗

Tarda an Unusual Carbonaceous Chondrite Meteorite Fall from Morocco

A fireball with a SW to NE trajectory was widely witnessed from the towns of Alnif, Zagora, Tazarine, and Rich in southern Morocco on the 25th of August 2020, around 2:30 pm Moroccan time (GMT+1). The fall was followed immediately by a search campaign by hundreds of Moroccan hunters and curious people in the area of the likely fall zone. On the following day, the first piece was found close to the village of Tarda between Goulmima and Errachidia. A field mission was conducted, and several eyewitnesses were interviewed. They describe a yellow and bright, barrel-sized fireball with green edges lasting ~3s, and accompanied by a whistling sound, followed by multiple detonations. The meteor produced a thick trail of white smoke that remained suspended for several minutes. The fireball was reported to release little pieces around its edges [1].

H. Chennaoui Aoudjehane↗

Extraterrestrial Amino Acids in the C2 Ungrouped Carbonaceous Chondrite Tarda: A Unique Distribution

Introduction: Meteorites provide a record of the chemical processes that occurred in the early solar sys-tem. The delivery of organic matter by carbonaceous chondrites to the early Earth could have been an im-portant source of amino acids and other prebiotic or-ganic molecules required for the emergence of life [1]. To date, 96 amino acids have been named in meteor-ites, most of which are rare or absent in the biosphere [2]. The variability in amino acid concentrations and isomer distributions measured in carbonaceous chon-drites can be explained by differences in parent body chemistry and alteration conditions [3]. In addition, aqueous alteration was likely important in the amplifi-cation of some left-handed amino acids over their right-handed forms (L-excesses up to ~60%) in the Tagish Lake meteorite [3], suggesting that the origin of life on Earth and possibly elsewhere in the solar sys-tem was biased towards L-amino acids. On August 25, 2020, a fireball was witnessed in southern Morocco and the first pieces of the meteorite fall were recovered the following day near the town of Tarda [4]. Thousands of individual fragments were recovered from the strewn field totaling ~4 kg [4]. Based on petrographic observations, bulk mineralogy, and chemical and O-isotopic analyses, Tarda has been classified as a C2 ungrouped carbonaceous chondrite with similarities to Tagish Lake (though more primi-tive), as well as CI, CY, and CR chondrites [4,5]. The fall and rapid recovery of the Tarda stones provide an important opportunity to investigate a C-rich meteorite using the state-of-the-art techniques that will also be used to study the samples returned from asteroids Ryugu and Bennu by the Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx missions, respectively. Here, we report the first amino acid analyses of the Tarda meteorite. The total concentrations, enantio-meric ratios and relative distributions of amino acids were determined using ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography with UV fluorescence and time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-FD/ToF-MS) at NASA GSFC. This analytical technique was employed on extracts from two different pre-rain Tarda meteorite fragments and a sample of sand collected from the Tarda fall site for the purpose of assessing potential terrestrial contamination. Bulk H, C, and N elemental and isotopic analyses were also conducted at the Car-negie Institution for Science (CIS) to assist with petro-logic type classification using elemental analysis iso-tope ratio mass spectrometry (EA-IRMS).

D P Glavin↗

Zircon, Baddeleyite, and Reidite Found in Ries Crater Suevite

Introduction: Impact events can generate superheated impact melts and even vapor [1]. In the past decade, evidence of the high temperatures and high pressures of the impact process has been found in the impact melt from terrestrial craters (e.g., Mistastin Lake [2], Meteor Crater [3]) and even on the Moon [4–5]. Often, these studies involve zircon or zirconium-bearing phases. Zircon is a particularly useful mineral, due to its robustness and durability against weathering. It is used principally for chronology, but it has a multitude of geologic applications, including geothermometry and fingerprinting magma sources. Here we focus on its capability of recording impact conditions. Grains of zircon (ZrSiO4) are converted at high temperature and/or pressure during an impact event to reidite (a high-pressure polymorph of ZrSiO4) or to tetragonal-ZrO2 + SiO2 [6]. Reidite and tertragonal-ZrO2 leave identifying relicts in the rocks, markers of the high pressures and/or temperatures these rocks underwent. Ries Crater is a 26-km-diameter peak ring crater in southern Germany that formed approximately 15 Ma [7–9]. Ries is the type locality of the polymict impact breccia known as suevite. Here, we report a microanalytical study of suevite from the Ries impact structure. These analyses are used to inform our understanding of the pressure and temperature conditions involved in creating a polymict impact breccia such as suevite in a peak ring crater. Sample Description: The sample, denoted 16RS08, originates from Otting Quarry, at 48.8777° N, 10.7921° E, approximately 17 km from the center of the Ries Crater in Germany (approximately 4 km outside the crater rim). The material recorded in sample 16RS08 is therefore considered an outer suevite. The outer suevite is a discontinuous layer of polymict impact breccia that occurs outside the central ring of Ries, up to 22 km from the center of the crater [9]. Lithic clasts in the outer suevite consist primarily of crystalline basement rocks (gneiss, granite, amphibolite), with less than 5% of lithic clasts being overlying sedimentary rocks (limestone, sandstone, shale) [9]. The thin section studied contains variably shocked lithic and mineral clasts, impact glass, and interstitial minerals that make up the matrix of the breccia (Fig. 1) [9]. Methods: We used a Cameca SX100 electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) located in the Kuiper Materials Imaging and Characterization Facility (KMICF) at the University of Arizona to obtain 15 elemental X-ray maps of 16RS08. We next used the JEOL 7900F SEM at the Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science (ARES) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to obtain electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) maps of select portions of the section. The EBSD data were collected under beam conditions of 20 kV, and ~9 μA, with step sizes varying from 0.05 to 2 μm. Following EBSD data collection, we processed the data using AZtecCrystal and MTEX, a free MATLAB toolbox. Results: We used the elemental X-ray maps to identify the areas of interest in the section, particularly phosphates and Zr-bearing grains. These areas of interest were then targeted for follow up EBSD and EDS analyses. We have identified, through combined EBSD and EDS analysis, the presence of zircon, reidite, and monoclinic-ZrO2 (baddeleyite) in 16RS08. In 16RS08, we have found singular grains of zircon, zircon with a vermicular baddeleyite halo (Fig. 2a), and granular zircon with reidite (Fig. 2b). The different Zr-rich phases and their corresponding textures signifies that this sample underwent a broad spectrum of pressure and temperature conditions during the impact event. For example, zircons surrounded by a vermicular baddeleyite and SiO2 intergrowth (i.e., Fig. 2a) have been shown to preserve evidence of the extremely high temperatures of impact melt, upwards of 2370 °C [2, 6]. Similarly, reidite and granular zircon (i.e., Fig. 2b) have been shown to preserve evidence of high pressure, as the transition to reidite occurs >30 GPa [3, 6]. Future Work: Next, we will process the EBSD and EDS data for these Zr-rich grains, specifically looking for indicators of cubic- or tetragonal-ZrO2 in the baddeleyite remnants and of shock-precursors to the reidite. To further inform our work, we will also obtain BSE images of these grains using a Hitachi S-4800 SEM in KMICF at the University of Arizona, as well as geochemical spot analyses via EPMA. The data collected will be used to constrain the formation conditions of the Ries Crater outer suevite. Acknowledgments: We thank Ken Domanik and Jerry Chang for their support with data collection. This work was supported by a University of Arizona RII Core Facilities Pilot Program grant and start-up funds to JJB. TME thanks A. Cavosie and N. Timms for assistance during field sampling. We acknowledge support from NASA’s Planetary Science Research program for analysis performed at JSC. References: [1] Melosh H. J. (1989) Oxf. U. Press. [2] Timms et al. (2017) EPSL 477, 52–58. [3] Cavosie et al. (2016) Geology 44:9, 703–706. [4] White et al. (2020) Nature Astr. 4, 974–978. [5] Crow C. A. et al. (2017) GCA 202, 264–284. [6] Timms et al. (2017) Earth-Sci. Rev. 165, 185–202. [7] Schmieder M. et al. (2018) GCA 220, 146–157. [8] Schwarz W. H. et al. (2020) M&PS 55:2, 312–325. [9] Stöffler et al. (2013) M&PS 43:4, 515–589.

Zircon↗

Recent Advances in the U.S. in Ablative TPS for In-situ Exploration of Giant Planets

The Decadal Survey report released [1] prioritizes Uranus as the highest priority Flagship class mission to be explored with an orbiter and a probe and it also recommended Saturn Probe under New Frontiers mission class. Thermal protection system (TPS) is essential for Uranus and Saturn probe missions. The two cardinal requirements are that it must be fail-safe and yet be mass efficient. The Decadal Survey report also pointed out the readiness of heatshield for extreme entry environment technology (HEEET) at TRL 6 for probe missions at Gas Giants. HEEET relies on 3-D weaving and is shown to be a robust and mass efficient TPS through ground testing and analysis. HEEET was matured to TRL 6 in 2019. HEEET was reported at the Ice Giant Workshop in 2019 at Marseille. Since 2019, significant advances have been made primarily because of Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission. MSR baselined 3-D Woven TPS as its heatshield for the earth entry system. MSR earth entry system (EES) requirements and the resulting heatshield/TPS requirements are most stringent of all entry missions. This is a result of backward contamination protection which classifies MSR as a “restricted class 5” mission to safeguard the accidental release of potentially hazardous Mars Sample into Earth’s atmosphere. Complex requirements for the heatshield start with micro-meteor impact tolerance followed by the requirement for steep entry to minimize the size of the impact footprint which results in extreme heating. The heatshield is part of the impact attenuation system. The EES architecture does not use a parachute and is designed to tolerate impact loads. Hence heatshield TPS selection and design becomes one of the key challenges. After completion of the HEEET technology maturation in 2019, IRAD efforts focused on assessing the 3-D Woven family of TPS to MSR EES. After nearly two years of evaluation of alternate TPS such as carbon phenolic, C-C hot structure, PICA, and 3-D woven family of TPS, a single layer 3-D woven TPS derived from the dual-layer HEEET was down selected and is currently the baseline. A new loom capable of weaving the single-layer 3-D woven preform at 80” wide has been designed, assembled and is currently on the verge of weaving the MSR EES TPS. During the HEEET maturation and the follow-on development, the single-layer TPS has been tested at extreme heating conditions. As a result, single layer TPS was recommended and evaluated during the Planetary Mission Concept Studies funded by NASA in preparation for the Decadal committee. In addition, in anticipation of Saturn mission proposals, single layer was evaluated as well. Aerocapture can reduce the trip time, also allow bigger payload fraction and in addition, it allows for the possibility of probe delivery once the spacecraft is in orbit. This can lead to obtaining both in-situ data as well as data from orbit simultaneously. Since Aerocapture depletes energy/velocity, probe delivery from orbit reduces the demand on TPS. Aerocapture was mentioned in the Decadal Study report as ready for implementation, but due to perceived risk it is not adopted by the mission designers. Establishing TPS readiness for aerocapture missions will be addressed. Going one step beyond aerocapture is aerogravity assist if fast return is the goal. Recent studies [4] looked at aerogravity assist and the TPS readiness. This talk will highlight both aerocapture and aerogravity assist from a TPS perspective. The main objective of this proposed talk is to present a comprehensive picture of the SOA TPS technology including recent developments. The talk will highlight advances in manufacturing, results from the Decadal White Papers, PMCS and other studies, and aerocapture and aerogravity assist that could play a role in the near or far term in-situ exploration.

E. Venkatapathy↗

On Computationally Efficient Radiative Transfer Calculations for Three-dimensional Entry Problems

The current work presents an efficient simulation framework for rigorously modeling radiative fields emanating from non-equilibrium planetary entry flows in complex three-dimensional domains. Key to this endeavor is adoption of finite-volume discretization in lieu of brute-force ray tracing. This change in conjunction with mesh sweeping and Lebedev-type quadrature for angular integration allows spatial-angular resolution of radiative transfer to be performed in a computationally tractable manner. Additionally, a new methodology has been established to build standalone reduced-order spectral databases for non-equilibrium radiative properties that can be applied to a broad range of hypersonic planetary entry problems with minimal loss in accuracy. The efficacy of the new framework has been demonstrated on the atomic nitrogen radiative system. The resulting reduced-order model requires three orders-of-magnitude fewer spectral evaluations and results in a 95% decrease in memory footprint. A comparative study for representative forebody and afterbody lines-of-sight from Stardust, FIRE II, and meteor entries into the Earth atmosphere indicates that both total intensity variation and detailed spectra can be retrieved with as few as 625 reduced-order groups (contrasting with the 100,000 frequencies in the original full set model). Similarly, three-dimensional predictions of radiative heating experienced by the Orion forebody are in excellent agreement with legacy radiation solvers while requiring only a sliver (roughly 0.5%) of computing wall time.

3D radiation↗

Modeling and Observations of OH UV-emissions in the Lunar Exosphere

The discovery of water on the Moon has led to several questions about lunar water’s origin, evolution, and total amount. One of the technique used to better understand the origin of the water, notably by the NASA LADEE/UVS instrument, is the observation of OH fluorescence. However, to better interpret the data, it is important to understand the processes leading to that emission. We present an application of the Aeroplanets model to the simulation of the OH emissions from the solar fluorescence and the dissociation of H2O from photon and electron impact in function of the solar activity. We applied the model to several cases of Lunar exosphere affected or not by meteor impacts that are known to release water in the exosphere.We show how we can retrieve the amount of OH and H2O on the line of sight of the different instruments and how the solar activity can affect that retrieval.

Guillaume Gronoff↗

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

On Computationally Efficient Radiative Transfer Calculations for Three-Dimensional Entry Problems

The current work presents an efficient simulation framework for rigorously modeling radiative fields emanating from non-equilibrium planetary entry flows in complex three-dimensional domains. Key to this endeavor is adoption of finite-volume discretization in lieu of brute-force ray tracing. This change in conjunction with mesh sweeping and Lebedev-type quadrature for angular integration allows spatial-angular resolution of radiative transfer to be performed in a computationally tractable manner. Additionally, a new methodology has been established to build standalone reduced-order spectral databases for non-equilibrium radiative properties that can be applied to a broad range of hypersonic planetary entry problems with minimal loss in accuracy. The efficacy of the new framework has been demonstrated on the atomic nitrogen radiative system. The resulting reduced-order model requires three orders-of-magnitude fewer spectral evaluations and results in a 95% decrease in memory footprint. A comparative study for representative forebody and afterbody lines-of-sight from Stardust, FIRE II, and meteor entries into the Earth atmosphere indicates that both total intensity variation and detailed spectra can be retrieved with as few as 625 reduced-order groups (contrasting with the 100,000 frequencies in the original full set model). Similarly, three-dimensional predictions of radiative heating experienced by the Orion forebody are in excellent agreement with legacy radiation solvers while requiring only a sliver (roughly 0.5%) of computing wall time.

3D radiation↗

Impacts of Atmospheric Ultrafast Kelvin Waves on Radio Scintillations in the Equatorial Ionosphere

We present a statistical analysis of the amplitudes of GPS scintillations (S4 index) observed throughout 2008–2010 using the satellite radio occultation measurements of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC). Here, for the first time, periodic variability in the occurrence of S4 is investigated using these data. Significant variations of S4 with periods of 2.5-4 days (quasi-3 days) are identified from the observations during postsunset hours (1900-2400 local time) between 15°S-15°N magnetic latitude during this 3-year interval. Coherence analyses of these variations with the geomagnetic Ap index, solar EUV irradiance, and atmospheric wind measurements from an equatorial mesosphere meteor radar at Thumba, India (8.5°N, 77°E) are performed, providing a measure of the relationship between variations in the scintillations and potential drivers. The quasi-3-day variations in S4 are found to covary with the variations of the three drivers examined. In particular, the S4 signatures are found to be coherent with the atmospheric ultrafast Kelvin (UFK) planetary waves characterized by the zonal wind measurements of the radar. This study shows that these UFK waves are as important as the solar and geomagnetic drivers in forcing the day-to-day variations of the occurrence of equatorial spread F.

Ultra Fast Kelvin planetary wave↗

Triple Oxygen Isotope Kinetics of Sulfate From Pyrite Oxidation

Sulfates from low temperature terrestrial and marine environments are out of equilibrium with their oxygen sources. Instead, oxygen isotope compositions of sulfate imply they are dominated by kinetic signatures of oxidative and reductive processes (Killingsworth et al., 2022) that are under-constrained compared to equilibrium effects (Hayles and Killingsworth, 2022). Consequently, the specific role of pyrite oxidation in setting the oxygen isotope composition of sulfate is also under-constrained. This scenario inhibits a more nuanced understanding of small variations in the oxygen isotopes of sulfate and their implications for tracing oxygen sources and sulfur cycle transformations, particularly in low-temperature relatively sulfate-limited freshwater systems such as rivers, lakes, aquifers, and mining-affected environments. To alleviate these knowledge gaps, we conduct pyrite oxidation experiments at time scales spanning minutes to years, analyze the triple oxygen isotope compositions (∆ 17 O and δ 18 O) of sulfate products, and interpret results using molecular modeling. Our preliminary results show isotopic relationships of 1) pyrite-derived sulfate ∆ 17 O reaching above the meteoric water line as its δ 18 O becomes lighter than water, and 2) sulfate ∆ 17 O and δ 18 O extending between water and O 2 . From these results we interpret a kinetic isotope effect between sulfate and water and mixing between sulfate end members containing most of their oxygen atoms from water and from O 2 .

Oxygen isotopes↗

Three-Wavelength Approach for Aerosol-Cloud Discrimination in the Sage III/ISS Aerosol Extinction Dataset

The tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region is dominated by aerosols and clouds affecting Earth’s radiation budget and climate. Thus, satellites’ continuous monitoring and identification of these layers is crucial for quantifying their radiative impact. However, distinguishing between aerosols and clouds is challenging, especially under the perturbed UTLS conditions during post-volcanic eruptions and wildfire events. Aerosol-cloud discrimination is primarily based on their disparate wavelength-dependent scattering and absorption properties. In this study, we use aerosol extinction observations in the tropical (15°N-15°S) UTLS from June 2017 to February 2021, available from the latest generation of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instrument-SAGE III onboard the International Space Station (ISS) to study aerosols and clouds. During this period, the SAGE III/ISS provided better coverage over the tropics at additional wavelength channels (relative to previous SAGE missions) and witnessed several volcanic and wildfire events that perturbed the tropical UTLS. We explore the advantage of having an extinction coefficient at an additional wavelength channel (1550 nm) from the SAGE III/ISS in aerosol-cloud discrimination using a method based on thresholds of two extinction coefficient ratios, R1R1 (520 nm/1020 nm) and R2R2 (1020 nm/1550 nm). This method was proposed earlier by Kent et al. [Appl. Opt. 36, 8639 (1997) [CrossRef] ] for the SAGE III-Meteor-3M but was never tested for the tropical region under volcanically perturbed conditions. We call this method the Extinction Color Ratio (ECR) method. The ECR method is applied to the SAGE III/ISS aerosol extinction data to obtain cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficients, cloud-top altitude, and seasonal cloud occurrence frequency during the entire study period. Cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficient obtained using the ECR method revealed the presence of enhanced aerosols in the UTLS following volcanic eruptions and wildfire events consistent with the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and space-borne lidar-Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The cloud-top altitude obtained from the SAGE III/ISS is within 1 km of the nearly co-located observations from OMPS and CALIOP. In general, the seasonal mean cloud-top altitude from the SAGE III/ISS events peaks during the December, January, and February months, with sunset events showing higher cloud tops than the sunrise events, indicating the seasonal and diurnal variation of the tropical convection. The seasonal altitude distribution of cloud occurrence frequency obtained from the SAGE III/ISS also agrees well with CALIOP observations within 10%. We show that the ECR method is a simple approach that relies on thresholds independent of the sampling period, providing cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficients uniformly for climate studies irrespective of the UTLS conditions. However, since the predecessor of SAGE III did not include a 1550 nm channel, the usefulness of this approach is limited to short-term climate studies after 2017.

Clouds Aerosols↗

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

A Historical Overview of International Space Station Extravehicular Activity Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Risk

Nearly 300 spacewalks have been conducted over the last 25 years to help build and maintain the International Space Station (ISS). During the nearly 2,000 hours of extra-vehicular activity (EVA), crew members wear extra-vehicular mobility unit (EMU) “spacesuits” to mitigate hazards of the space environment including impacts from meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particles. NASA includes detailed EMU MMOD risk analyses as part of the ISS EVA review and approval process. This paper provides a general historical overview of the ISS EVA MMOD risks and the associated risk assessment process. The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Team produces the ISS EVA MMOD risk analyses using the Bumper3 MMOD risk analysis code in conjunction with detailed information about the EVA including crew-member EVA work sites, crew translation paths, suit orientation, and duration. Detailed physical models of the EMU spacesuits and the ISS are included and tailored for each EVA analysis. Two types of MMOD risk are included: (1) Penetration, and (2) Catastrophic. Penetration risk is for any size leak in the EMU suit. Catastrophic risk is a subset of Penetration Risk and only includes penetrations that cause a 4mm diameter hole (or larger) in the inner “bladder” layer of the EMU suit. This size hole will exceed the ability of the EMU suit to compensate. The MMOD risk analyses also utilize the latest orbital debris environment and meteoroid environment models including additional transient factors to account for recent satellite break-ups and annual meteor storms. These additional factors and the associated increase in EVA MMOD risk are considered when scheduling an EVA to reduce EMU MMOD risk.

Dana M. Lear↗

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages

Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However, these simplified approaches still need to solve time-dependent ODEs to model the entry process and the resulting ground damage. With a computational cost of O(0.01 CPU.s) per scenario, simulating these large numbers of potential entry conditions in risk assessment studies can take several days on local computers. To improve computational efficiency, we propose in this paper an orthogonal approach based on machine learning models to predict the size of damaged areas given a list of entry parameters. We train 5 machine learning methods and compare the predictions to the outputs of the PAIR model, first only with primitive entry condition variables, and then with more advanced features. We find that complex models like neural networks are well-suited to estimate blast hazards, while simpler linear models can accurately assess thermal damage. For both types of hazards, the radii of damaged areas can be predicted with around 10% average errors and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. The CPU time is decreased by a factor O(10 3 ) compared to the PAIR model, which enables the simulation of millions of scenarios in minutes, on a local computer. We then use the same machine learning approaches for a classification task where the models are trained to predict if an asteroid will produce a given level of damage. Results show that complex models like the gradient boosting classifier and the neural network can perform this task with 98% accuracy. Beyond surrogate models, we finally incorporate the machine learning algorithms to the state-of-the-art Shapley sensitivity analysis and present a ranking of the entry parameters based on their contributions to ground damages.

SMD↗

A Review of International Space Station Extravehicular Activity Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk

Nearly 300 spacewalks have been conducted over the last 25 years to support the construction and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS). During the nearly 2,000 hours of extra-vehicular activity (EVA), crew wore extra-vehicular mobility unit (EMU) “spacesuits” to help mitigate hazards of the space environment including impacts from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particles. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducts detailed EMU MMOD risk analyses as part of the ISS EVA review and approval process. This paper provides a general historical overview of the ISS EVA MMOD risks and the associated risk assessment process. The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Team produces the ISS EVA MMOD risk analyses using the Bumper MMOD risk analysis code in conjunction with detailed information about the EVA including crew member EVA work sites, crew translation paths, suit orientation, and durations. Detailed physical models of the EMU spacesuit and the ISS are included and tailored for each EVA analysis. Two types of MMOD risk are included: (1) Penetration, and (2) Catastrophic. Penetration risk is for any size leak in the EMU suit. Catastrophic risk is a subset of Penetration Risk and only includes penetrations that cause a 4mm diameter hole (or larger) in the pressure-maintaining “bladder” layer of the EMU suit. This size hole will exceed the ability of the EMU suit to compensate. The MMOD risk analyses also utilize the latest orbital debris environment and meteoroid environment models including additional transient factors to account for recent satellite break-ups and annual meteor storms. These additional factors and the associated increase in EVA MMOD risk are considered when scheduling EVAs to reduce EMU MMOD risk.

Dana M. Lear↗